burchfiel
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What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:31 am

(By first service, I mean from this point onward, irregardless of whether AA had service to Africa in the past.)

DL and UA both serve Africa from the US (just one route for UA and a handful for DL). Now that AA will become/already is the world's largest airline, I was wondering when they will commence service to Africa.

Some questions to consider:
1. What US airport would they fly from? I think JFK is a safe choice, given that DL already flies from JFK to ACC and DKR (correct me if this is out-of-date info). It may be counter-intuitive, but JFK is actually closer to LOS than MIA, so I'm doubtful that MIA would be selected for African traffic. Other possibilities include CLT, PHL, and DFW (though these are long shots).

2. What would the destination airport be? For reference, among Africa's busiest airports in 2012 were JNB, CAI, CPT, CMN, HRG, LOS, SSH, DUR, ABV, and RAK. I believe the African airports served by DL and UA (perhaps a better guide to where AA might choose to fly) are DKR, ACC, LOS, ROB, and JNB.

3. What A/C might be utilized on this route?

4. When might service commence, if it commences at all?
 
MAH4546
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:43 am

Quoting Burchfiel (Thread starter):
1. What US airport would they fly from? I think JFK is a safe choice, given that DL already flies from JFK to ACC and DKR (correct me if this is out-of-date info). It may be counter-intuitive, but JFK is actually closer to LOS than MIA, so I'm doubtful that MIA would be selected for African traffic. Other possibilities include CLT, PHL, and DFW (though these are long shots).

American Airlines has already said it will be Miami.

http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/ne...as-a-hub-for-future-africa-flights

Quoting Burchfiel (Thread starter):
4. When might service commence, if it commences at all?

Give a bit. It's not priority but clearly on the radar. Three years minimum, I'd say, and it would probably not amount to much more than Lagos and Johannesburg from Miami.

U.S.-Africa wasn't the goldmine many (myself included) thought it would become, but I'm still surprised nobody has successfully tried a Luanda fight.

[Edited 2014-06-07 00:59:51]
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RWA380
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 10:18 am

There was a thread floating around this site not too long ago, that had Parker talking about JNB being a priority, IIRC.
I think SA)">AA should continue building up LAX, and offer more Asian destinations, but African markets are emerging profitable.
I do not know how many carriers US-SA can handle, before yields dive and carriers start dropping fares to compete.
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HPRamper
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 11:14 am

LOS and ACC are so low-yield that AA might well forego flying there next in favor of something like CAI.
 
jumpjets
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 1:14 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 4):
LOS and ACC are so low-yield that AA might well forego flying there next in favor of something like CAI

Ghana has oil now so that may change things. I lived there some years ago and apart from SAA and 3 or 4 European Airlines there were few non-African routes. Since oil has come along the number of international carriers has grown so I suspect yields might not be all that low - especially if you make a link between oil communities in Africa and the US.
 
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Miami
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 2:05 pm

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DL747400
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 1):
U.S.-Africa wasn't the goldmine many (myself included) thought it would become, but I'm still surprised nobody has successfully tried a Luanda fight.


DL announced Luanda but canceled it shortly before launch for the stated reason of weak demand. Rumors persist that there were also some significant security concerns:

http://www.ajc.com/news/business/del...h-of-route-to-luanda-angola/nQphr/
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JAAlbert
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:22 pm

So assuming AA flies from MIA and hits JNB first, what aircraft in its fleet can make that journey without penalties?
 
FlyingSicilian
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:41 pm

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 7):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 1):
U.S.-Africa wasn't the goldmine many (myself included) thought it would become, but I'm still surprised nobody has successfully tried a Luanda fight.


DL announced Luanda but canceled it shortly before launch for the stated reason of weak demand. Rumors persist that there were also some significant security concerns:

http://www.ajc.com/news/business/del...h-of-route-to-luanda-angola/nQphr/

true.


And there is the thrice weekly Houston IAH- Luanda charter service via the Sonagol SonAir contract with Atlas (formerly w/World). 747 with 189 mainly biz seats flying non-stop. Service has been around 14 years now. I lot of pals who have flown it say it is very nice.

While one has to be in the US-Africa Energy Association to book tix or cargo, joining is not that difficult for businesses.
People also get miles on UNITED for the flight.

Since a lot of energy business traffic already flies in biz on this route from Houston, I would presume there is only room for a small amount of extra service to Luanda catching the rest of the VFR traffic, and non-energy business.
To me that would suggest a network carrier like AA from MIA with 4-5x weekly, or maybe DL from ATL. UA is not brave enough to try right now LOL
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davies2911
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:42 pm

HRG and SSH are also mainly served by charter and low cost airlines from Europe and Russia carrying package tourists travelling to the big resort areas local to them. Couldnt see a market for any of the US airlines at those IMO.
 
MAH4546
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 5:06 pm

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 7):
DL announced Luanda but canceled it shortly before launch for the stated reason of weak demand. Rumors persist that there were also some significant security concerns:

Correct. It was announced and cancelled not once, but twice. An A330 via Dakar and, before that, a 757 via Sal.
a.
 
bchandl
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:38 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 1):
Give a bit. It's not priority but clearly on the radar. Three years minimum, I'd say, and it would probably not amount to much more than Lagos and Johannesburg from Miami.

With what aircraft? They don't operate the 777-200LR, only ER's and they don't have the legs, do they?

It would probably be a 787 if I had to guess... a 777 seems like to much aircraft
 
MAH4546
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting bchandl (Reply 13):
With what aircraft? They don't operate the 777-200LR, only ER's and they don't have the legs, do they?

77W can do MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA easily. A 788 can probably do MIA-JNB-MIA, and 789 won't have a problem doing it. I do not agree it is "too much aircraft." Limited non-stop service and premium fares.
a.
 
mhkansan
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:54 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 14):
77W can do MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA easily. A 788 can probably do MIA-JNB-MIA, and 789 won't have a problem doing it. I do not agree it is "too much aircraft." Limited non-stop service and premium fares.

In the previous thread, it was rumored that AA would like to have a subfleet of 77L to serve JNB. If that doesn't happen, I agree the 788 or 789 will be perfect.
 
philvardon
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:56 pm

I'm not sure that ACC would really be that low a yielding destination. Even with more European Airlines flying the route than ever before ticket prices are not that cheap. The route from LHR or AMS is only 6 1/4- 6 3/4 hours.
Some of my family live in Ghana and will rarely get a return to London for less than $1000 in economy. For some reason fares seem to be higher ex-ACC than ex-LHR. I appreciate that the journey between the continental US and ACC is longer but at the moment OneWorld and Star carriers have to fly their customers via Europe. Obviously SkyTeam customers can use the DL flight.
 
user444555
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:24 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 14):
77W can do MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA easily. A 788 can probably do MIA-JNB-MIA, and 789 won't have a problem doing it. I do not agree it is "too much aircraft." Limited non-stop service and premium fares.

Please pass this information on to AA. The people I know who have usually are told it is not a premium route, even recently after JNB was mentioned in the news a couple months ago. I agree this makes so much sense for AA. I hope it happens. I see no reason why an ER cannot do it, especially with alliance support in South Africa, which DL who has flown the route for years, does not have.
 
user444555
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:26 pm

Quoting philvardon (Reply 16):
'm not sure that ACC would really be that low a yielding destination. Even with more European Airlines flying the route than ever before ticket prices are not that cheap. The route from LHR or AMS is only 6 1/4- 6 3/4 hours.
Some of my family live in Ghana and will rarely get a return to London for less than $1000 in economy. For some reason fares seem to be higher ex-ACC than ex-LHR. I appreciate that the journey between the continental US and ACC is longer but at the moment OneWorld and Star carriers have to fly their customers via Europe. Obviously SkyTeam customers can use the DL flight.

Yes and if you look at JNB, the trip on OW takes two days from most places in the US. That is not competitive with * and ST IMO. I hope it does not take 3 years.
 
ORDTLV2414
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:52 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 4):
CAI.

With unrest in the egypt dettering tourism and the sorry state of the egyptian economy, I doubt this service will commence in the near future.

I can see MIA-JNB but I'm unsure if AA has the ability to do that non-stop. AA's main stratgey for Africa is to fly passengers to LHR and hand them off to BA.
 
Viscount724
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:55 pm

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 7):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 1):
U.S.-Africa wasn't the goldmine many (myself included) thought it would become, but I'm still surprised nobody has successfully tried a Luanda fight.


DL announced Luanda but canceled it shortly before launch for the stated reason of weak demand. Rumors persist that there were also some significant security concerns:

I don't think the US-Angola bilateral has ever been ratified to permit scheduled service, or am I wrong?
 
EricR
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:57 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 6):


It's gonna be Miami.

American Airlines "Eager" To Start MIA-JNB (by Miami Apr 30 2014 in Civil Aviation)

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11998....html

Before this turns into another Miami love fest, it is important to note that the comments by Kirby were made last year prior to the closing of the merger. In addition, the words he used were less than definitive. In other words, he used words like "mulling over" or that "they did some looking into points in Africa". Therefore, while MIA seems like a good choice, I wouldn't necessarily rule out JFK.
 
MAH4546
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 8:25 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 21):
Before this turns into another Miami love fest, it is important to note that the comments by Kirby were made last year prior to the closing of the merger. In addition, the words he used were less than definitive. In other words, he used words like "mulling over" or that "they did some looking into points in Africa". Therefore, while MIA seems like a good choice, I wouldn't necessarily rule out JFK.

The article he links to refers to post merger comments made in April 2014. So clearly it's still something being looked at.
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jfk777
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 9:09 pm

Every one acts like US aviation in Africa is a last frontier. TWA flew to Cairo since or before WW2 and PA flew to Dakar, Abidjian, Lagos and Nairobi for decades. Johannesburg was also flown by PA util politics killed it for obvious reasons. Delta's "discovery" of Africa sounds like the moon. Its been there all the time and if Aparteid had not becomea "hot potatoe" PA would have flown there continuously to South Africa.

In this century Delta discovered Africa and Continetal discovered their "Oil capitol to Oil capitol" route from Lagos to Houston". Africa has also been challenging because stops have been required and South Africa is so far away and Johannesburg is on top of a mountain. We are finaly at the point of 250 seat planes capabe of flying 8,000 miles. AA probably wil join the Africa club with a 787 from Miami, a 777 from Lagos to DFW would also be something to wish for just to cause an inch in Houston.
 
user444555
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sat Jun 07, 2014 9:22 pm

Quoting ORDTLV2414 (Reply 19):
I can see MIA-JNB but I'm unsure if AA has the ability to do that non-stop. AA's main stratgey for Africa is to fly passengers to LHR and hand them off to BA.

Which takes 2 days last time I checked from almost all cities in the US, except some on the East Coast.
 
Max Q
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sun Jun 08, 2014 3:28 am

The 77W can certainly make it MIA-JNB, can it return nonstop without taking an outrageous payload hit to the point
where it would not be profitable ?
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burchfiel
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:09 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 21):
Every one acts like US aviation in Africa is a last frontier.

I don't have the numbers, but I'm confident that nonstop traffic between the US and Africa is far, far lower than traffic between the US and any other continent except Antarctica. So in that sense, it's a 'frontier' -- a frontier that AA is not crossing and one that UA has barely touched.

[Edited 2014-06-07 21:10:17]
 
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FedExFlyerPHL
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:14 am

I feel like Parker had a PHL-CAI route on the radar a while back. Does anyone remember??

Quoting bchandl (Reply 11):
With what aircraft? They don't operate the 777-200LR, only ER's and they don't have the legs, do they?

It would probably be a 787 if I had to guess... a 777 seems like to much aircraft

How about the A350s??

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klwright69
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RE: What Will AA's First Service To Africa Be?

Sun Jun 08, 2014 5:49 am

I question the viability of more routes from US carriers to Africa. Egypt still has a perception problem IMHO that will take some time to overcome. Other countries and markets have their own vagaries and issues I am sure.

Nigeria is now the largest economy on the continent.

UA's route to ACC didn't last.

Africa is not a new frontier as some have suggested. It's always been there. UA does well to LOS from IAH. But Houston was begging CO for years and years to add LOS. It took a long time for them to come around. But that's a special case due to the business and commercial links related to the energy industry. Others have said Houston has the largest Nigerian ethnic community in the US. Don't quote me on that though, I only read it here. DL has carved out a several niche markets also. DL has done a good job with Africa too.

AA would have to be convinced of profits to add DFW to LOS. Just slapping a plane on the route to nip at UA's heels will not be sufficient in this day and age.

Carriers have not been hurrying to add more routes to Africa. US carriers seem to be very cautious with Africa. That should tell us something.

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