Bobloblaw
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:15 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 39):
Mergers shrink hubs. They do not grow hubs. Mergers shrink airlines. They do not grow airlines.

well lets see. was DL smaller or larger 5-10 years after it bought WA? Is DL bigger today across the Atlantic then when it bought PA? How about UA across the Pacific.

Airlines grow over time. The industry has consolidated since the 1980s but is dramatically larger.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 39):
US+AA > The New AA

So far that is incorrect.


While A.netters continue to insist otherwise, AA/US wasnt meant to reduce capacity, it was meant to create an airline large enough to compete with DL and UA. AA didnt even want a partner initially. The previous mergers took enough capacity out that AA/US doesnt need to take more out.

In order to cut capacity and increase unit revenues, you need tow things. One is excess capacity, there isnt any. And two you need to recapture that traffic over your remaining hubs. Nearly impossible for AA to do by cutting CLT or PHL or ORD for that matter. They dont serve the same traffic flows.

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
may be totally off base, but I would not be surprised if AA has no hub in ORD in 5-7 years

Yes, you are off base.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 39):
regional pilots going the way of the Dodo + hub that is 66% regional operated (which is pathetic) = reductions down the road.

Ah no regional planes and pilots arent going the way of the dodo. There will be few if any 50 seat jets but there will be a resurgence in 50-70 props (already happening) and there will be 70-90 seat jets. As traffic grows a market today with 5 50 seats jets will be able to accomodate 4-5 70 seat jets in the 2020s. Markets grow, the economy grows and population grow.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:19 pm

Can we seriously stop all the doom and gloom talk? ORD, CLT, and even PHX have about a zero chance of being de-hubbed. They all serve a different purpose and they are valuble in their own ways.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
airplanedaj
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:46 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 51):

Can we seriously stop all the doom and gloom talk? ORD, CLT, and even PHX have about a zero chance of being de-hubbed. They all serve a different purpose and they are valuble in their own ways.

Thank you! Someone is finally making sense on this forum!

I think AA is the cities best chance at getting the West Terminal built. In addition, making ORD a base for the new 787's, E175's, and also a mix of narrow body gauges will make ORD a very viable hub for AA, should they choose that road. IIRC, ORD used to be a big F100 base, especially for ORD-NE US (i.e. PVD, ALB, BDL) when AA still had those, but the 738/MD80 proved too big for many of those markets. Mixing up the narrowbody gauge (A319 or a MAX/NEO plane) would hopefully make some of those routes profitable enough to restart. The 787 could also be used to start new international markets, such as ICN, GRU, BCN, MXP, and others.

And one final note, remember its all speculation. Even if AA says something, it could still change. Only time will tell how this all unfolds.
 
strfyr51
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:28 pm

If American were going to shrink ORD in any way? What would it gain them? You Can't even be serious that CLT
would turn the revenue that ORD does do you? With DFW and ORD? American has their east- west as long s they hold
NYC area , MIA,,and a strong presence at LAX and SFO. Their "4 corners" strategy is to bolster their North and South Hubs
That's what was so Important that United and Continental merger, We didn't Need a hub at EWR and they didn't need a hub at IAD.
but IAH and ORD together?? That's The winner!! PHX counters DEN, CLT counters IAD , JFK counters EWR.
Everything else?? Is "Window dressing" because I just Gave you the "Turkey, Dressing and Mashed Potatoes"
which American will be feasting on for a LONG time.
If they maximize their "Core"?? East, South , and West are just spreading their Reach. Just like IAH gave United the reach South.
No matter what We can reach east but we can do so because we have an unbeatable core, Just like American's Core,
Delta is going to be the one doing the reaching if American and United play up to their potential Strengths,
ATL is their southeast stronghold , DTW the Northeast. MSP their North-central and either SLC and SEA as their
West or Pacific gateways. That's why they HAVE to make SEA work.
NOBODY is really going to dominate LAX but it IS a valuable Gateway. and Just like JFK? It value is immense..
Those 2 airports will always be "Players" no matter What. But!!
It's only a matter of time before everybody's "strategy" is worked out.. None of the senior management teams at any of the "3 Amigo's " has their plan in place yet.
And I SERIOUSLY doubt whether it will look at ALL like anything suggested by any of you.
What I see are lot of "wish lists" that have Nothing to do with revenues. logistics, or system realities or interconnection.
Connect the dots yourself .. Where are the hubs? What are their Drawing points?
Where can they Reach and what Cities can they profitably Serve?
And?? What Airplane models would you propose they serve tem WITH?? Take for instance ORD and MSP Both HUB airports are in the Mississippi valley.
where would they draw sustenance?? IAH- DFW, DEN,-PHX, SEA-SFO-LAX, JFK-EWR PHL-IAD..CLT-ATL-MIA.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:41 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 50):
So far that is incorrect.

Just beginning my friend. Talk to Eagle pilots. I mean Envoy.  
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 50):
Ah no regional planes and pilots arent going the way of the dodo

No one to fill the classes right now. Good luck with that theory.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 50):
well lets see. was DL smaller or larger 5-10 years after it bought WA? Is DL bigger today across the Atlantic then when it bought PA? How about UA across the Pacific.

DL dismantled the WA system in CA. Kept SLC. They acquired the Pan Am Atlantic division. Not a merger. Bought a piece of the pie and screwed the rest of the airline after they promised to finance the mess that was Pan Am in 1991.
 
ORDTLV2414
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:03 am

One reason AA or UA will never leave the ORD hub is Chicago. Anyone saying that AA or UA have plans to shrink their ORD operations are simply ignoring the fact that Chicago is the third biggest metro area in the country and that it is in the middle. AA has even made statements saying they're going to continue expansion in ORD. ORD compliments PHL and vice versa, neither can replace the other.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:10 am

Quoting ORDTLV2414 (Reply 55):

Doug and Scott had statements about expanding at basically every hub that isn't slot controlled, so let's not get ahead of ourselves here.
 
nomorerjs
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:21 am

For those that think ORD will be de-hubbed due to % of RJs:

Mainline % of Total

MIA 272 81%
JFK 76 76%
PHX 206 67%
DFW 545 66%
LAX 122 66%
CLT 295 44%
PHL 173 36%
ORD 180 35%

Than I guess we can say adios to PHL and CLT as well. Not to mention, that almost 34% of the RJs at ORD are E175s, and growing while the ERDs are going away (and there are no props at ORD), whle CLT and PHL have smaller RJs and props.

I think ORD will thrive with a re-banking of flights (with the continued multiple flights to LGA, DFW, LAX, BOS, etc. where they are beating UA). AA has a chance to capitalize on UA's "misfortunes." Chicago is an Alpha city and the 3rd largest city in the US with multiple Fortune 500 companies. While it may not be the "Gateway to Europe, Latin America, or Asia" it is critical to AAs future or AA will lose corporate contracts and open the door for others to enter ORD.

Go ahead AA and leave ORD, UA and others will be glad you did!
 
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WROORD
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 2:38 am

One factor to consider is the current push by the City to become a major international tourist destination. PBS had an interview with the Mayor saying that the city is already seeing 20% increase of foreign tourists. This will definitely play a part in the future of international flights out of ORD.
 
AAplat4life
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:27 am

Quoting WROORD (Reply 58):
One factor to consider is the current push by the City to become a major international tourist destination. PBS had an interview with the Mayor saying that the city is already seeing 20% increase of foreign tourists. This will definitely play a part in the future of international flights out of ORD.

It is not clear yet that this development will play out for AA or what its strategy will be at ORD, if it will have one beyond minor tweaks to the status quo. We've seen some changes such as adding PDX back, another flight to SNA (somewhat ill-timed IMO) and DUS and HEL added as destinations. I don't know the results of the latter two. They are nice cities, but not big on the tourist/business destination maps in comparison to others. The cities that may be worth considering are: BCN, TLV, IST, FRA (resumption) and MXP (resumption).
 
jcwr56
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:59 am

In general terms...

DFW as their primary hub
MIA is the hub of the Americas
LAX proposed be the Asian Hub
JFK hub to Europe, Transcon

CLT, IAD, ORD, PHL and PHX will be defined as what within the network? Until DFW decides what they want to do with the remaining 5, plans are anyone's guess.

Does something give? or do you strengthen all?
 
Cubsrule
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:22 pm

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 60):
DFW as their primary hub

Sure, but if I'm flying BDL-SEA, DFW adds 600 miles to my trip. What value does that have for me or for AA?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jayunited
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:39 pm

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 16):
The failure of AA's ORD-DEL is an interesting case and one wonders if it might work post-merger.

Yes and with the introduction of the 787's, you could see this one coming back to ORD. Matter of fact, I'm picking up strong rumors there's a push to make ORD the primary hub for them.

Even with the 787 I don't see AA relaunching ORD-DEL. The reason being they will have to slug it out with AI and all the Middle East carriers many of who were not flying to ORD when AA was flying ORD-DEL. I do believe that AA will reenter the India market albeit from JFK and I say that because that gives them access to a very strong O&D market as well as access to connections from all over the U.S. Relaunching ORD-DEL basically means either East coast passengers on AA would have to back track or they would have to take another airline, JFK is better and if CO and now UA can make EWR to India work AA should be able to make JFK to India work as well. We see a lot of connecting passenger going to India via EWR on UA I doubt seriously East coast passengers would back track to ORD to fly to India.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 7):
FWIW, per the Summer hub stats UA in ORD is 30.4% mainline with
ER4: 224
CR2: 81
CR7: 110
E70: 39
E75: 14

AA is 34.7% mainline
ERD: 54
ER4: 147
CR2: 14
CR7: 28
CR9: 2
E75: 94

Yes UA has more express flights than AA but if I'm not mistaken UA also has more mainline flights out of ORD than AA and overall UA has more overall fights out of ORD than AA.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 1:01 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 31):
But I guess LCCs are the next wave to join the major alliances, esp for the likes of Westjet, Volaris, Indigo etc

That mentality would have been well suited in 1999. Not in 2014.

Aside from the scattered "affiliate" carriers of major network airlines, there are currently no major LCCs, nor really any hybrid carriers, that are participating, or have stated intentions to participate, in any of the three major alliances.

The value of alliances has eroded over time, and as they've expanded in size, scale and scope, its become apparent to the rest of the world that cohesion becomes harder to maintain over time, which is why tribes like the LH/AC/UA JV exists, but you won't see AC/UA playing well with TG.

It is pointless for airlines like WS and 6E to consider the immense financial and technical undertaking of joining a global alliance when they already feel as though the benefits they derive from partnerships, codeshares and interlines deliver satisfactory levels of revenue and passenger growth.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 51):
Can we seriously stop all the doom and gloom talk? ORD, CLT, and even PHX have about a zero chance of being de-hubbed. They all serve a different purpose and they are valuble in their own ways.

  
 
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enilria
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 1:10 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 25):
Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
I may be totally off base, but I would not be surprised if AA has no hub in ORD in 5-7 years.

It wouldn't shock me. AA has been shrinking ORD forever, as has UA, and its most recent add in a long time was BIS. At least UA has consistently added a handful of destinations. The only hub carrier growing in the CHI area is WN.
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 50):
Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
may be totally off base, but I would not be surprised if AA has no hub in ORD in 5-7 years

Yes, you are off base.

I think the only reason AA has stayed fighting in ORD is vanity to lose a foothold in America's 3rd (is it?) largest city. If the economics for AA were exactly the same, but it were the 10th largest city I think the hub would have been closed long ago. The other thing to consider is that WN has a very large hub as well. I'd say that CHI doesn't have the numbers to support 3 vibrant hubs. If AA claws something back to become profitable there (good luck) it will come from either stabbing WN (unlikely as the other airport gives it a partially protected market) or UA (potentially). It's just hard to imagine AA making a dent in UA's FFP dominance. That's really the issue. There is really no way to fix that. Also, while the AA-US merger may help US in NYC and PHL because of the brand step-up, I think it probably weakens them in ORD as anything borrowed from the US product will generally be seen as diminishing the AA product and they were already losing.

In 2013, UA's average fare O&D CHI was 24% higher than AA. I think we know that margins in the business are not so high that you can be losing to somebody by that much and be making money. If AA was making money at that kind of fare differential, then UA would be making 30% margins and we know that isn't the case.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 1:17 pm

Quoting irishayes (Reply 63):

Aside from the scattered "affiliate" carriers of major network airlines, there are currently no major LCCs, nor really any hybrid carriers, that are participating, or have stated intentions to participate, in any of the three major alliances.

There were CAPA articles talking about both Skyteam and Star prepping a LCC/hybird platform to welcome these types of carries. They have specifically cited Star as interested in Indigo on top of AI. You can go read it yourself.
 
HPRamper
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 2:02 pm

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 60):
JFK hub to Europe, TransconCLT, IAD, ORD, PHL and PHX will be defined as what within the network? Until DFW decides what they want to do with the remaining 5, plans are anyone's guess.

It's already been stated that PHL will still be the main Europe gateway for the network - especially with the high probability of some CLT-Europe flights being cut. JFK-Europe will consist mainly of flights that can be supported by primarily local O&D.
The rest of the hubs can function just fine as domestic connecting hubs with limited international flights. Every airline has them - DL has MSP, SLC and CVG for instance. Not every hub needs to have a cute "Gateway to X" label.
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 2:46 pm

AA has to find a way to make ORD work, there's nothing to replace it with. Without ORD they cede the Midwest to UA/DL, not gonna happen. What, re-hub STL? Hardly, and I love me some STL.

DFW/CLT/PHX/PHL are no substitutes for the traffic flows and O&D ORD provides. The re-banking is a start, as is the upguaging of Envoy frames and their 2-class service.

If ORD is the financial dog for AA that some think, then AA will make every effort to right that situation. They have no alternative.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
ckfred
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 2:55 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
I may be totally off base, but I would not be surprised if AA has no hub in ORD in 5-7 years. I don't think it is their plan, but I knowing DP and seeing the growing tendency toward single carrier hubs, I think it is quite plausible.
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 25):
It wouldn't shock me. AA has been shrinking ORD forever, as has UA, and its most recent add in a long time was BIS. At least UA has consistently added a handful of destinations. The only hub carrier growing in the CHI area is WN

As others have said, Chicago is the third largest metro area. Now, the Illinois economy is bleak and will remain bleak, until politicians figure out how to deal with government pensions, make the environment more business friendly, and so on. But, states around Illinois are doing just fine.

You can't funnel people in and out of the upper Midwest via DFW, CLT, or PHL. One of the reasons why the US-AA merger made sense was that AA has been weak in the Southeast since it closed RDU and BNA. MIA, ORD, and DFW are not well-located for moving passengers in and out of the region.

Yes, WN has been growing at MDW, but it will be bumping up against the operational limits of the field. Plus, it has no ability to fly to Europe or Asia, and there are plenty of smaller cities that it doesn't serve, or might require a connection or two.

While UA hasn't scaled back in the sense that it has cut destinations or significant fequencies, it has switched a lot of flights from mainline to Express. It wasn't that many years ago that ORD-ATL was all narrowbody, including 757s from time to time. Now, it's all CRJ700s and Embrear 170s. That means for the ORD operations a decline in the number of seats.

If ORD is such a miserable place for a hub, then why do international carriers keep adding ORD to their route systems, especially Star and oneworld carriers?
 
OP3000
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 2:59 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 66):
The rest of the hubs can function just fine as domestic connecting hubs with limited international flights. Every airline has them - DL has MSP, SLC and CVG for instance. Not every hub needs to have a cute "Gateway to X" label.

Exactly. But even if someone wants to add labels, then ORD is a big O&D, midwest and transcon hub, CLT is a southeast and North-South East Coast hub, PHL is a Northeast and transatlantic hub, and PHX is a southwest hub (albeit redundant with DFW/LAX). (I am not sure how IAD got labelled as an AA hub previously) What people don't get is that with consolidation, the big 3 network airlines have grown substantially (somewhere around 25-35% depending on the case) and that warrants having additional network connecting points than they had as their pre-merger selves in spite of the elimination of redundancies. In the case of AA, it is not just the added size of US that warrants more connecting points but also the fact that PMAA was already underweight in certain places and needing hubs in the Northeast and Southeast.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 65):
There were CAPA articles talking about both Skyteam and Star prepping a LCC/hybird platform to welcome these types of carries. They have specifically cited Star as interested in Indigo on top of AI. You can go read it yourself.

I've read these articles and am aware of the concept, but the likelihood of anything materializing in the next 2-3 years is probably slim to none. Moreover, you have to question what value the hybrids/LCCs would see in partaking in an LCC alliance that operates at a different wavelength as the core group. IndiGo and Gol, for instance, have zero co-terminal points in common. Nor does Volaris and IndiGo, etc. It makes sense for G3 to partner with Etihad, KLM, Alitalia, etc but why should they have any interest in a regional player like IndiGo, who isn't even considered a hybrid carrier yet?

The idea sounds palatable to alliances like SkyTeam and Star who have essentially maxed out their opportunities at the network carrier level, and instead want to market the value of alliances to successful, profitable "niche" airlines like IndiGo in developing/BRIC countries like India. They would be much better off pursuing greater ties with Middle Eastern carriers and swallowing their pride.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:24 pm

Quoting irishayes (Reply 70):

The idea sounds palatable to alliances like SkyTeam and Star who have essentially maxed out their opportunities at the network carrier level, and instead want to market the value of alliances to successful, profitable "niche" airlines like IndiGo in developing/BRIC countries like India. They would be much better off pursuing greater ties with Middle Eastern carriers and swallowing their pride.

An airline hubbed inside a BRIC/emerging market nation is worth a lot too. That's why Star even bothered with the junk called Air India, and that's why oneworld really wants to bring on Hainan Air to counter CA/MU/CZ.

ME3 is huge on their own but against a broad alliance, the value they add is mostly for India/Pakistan access.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:25 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 68):
If ORD is such a miserable place for a hub, then why do international carriers keep adding ORD to their route systems, especially Star and oneworld carriers?

I think ORD is much better for international than domestic, again unless you're AA, where it's probably pretty terrible from every angle.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
OP3000
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:26 pm

Quoting irishayes (Reply 70):
I've read these articles and am aware of the concept, but the likelihood of anything materializing in the next 2-3 years is probably slim to none.

The initial comment about LCCs and alliances (as it related to the US-India market) was not 2-3 years but at some point in time. There are valid arguments for/against and time will tell. This is off-topic and probably merits a different thread.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:32 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 72):
I think ORD is much better for international than domestic, again unless you're AA, where it's probably pretty terrible from every angle.

ORD is a good place for a hub. Problem is the market is very fragmented between three carriers.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 54):
No one to fill the classes right now. Good luck with that theory.

Its called raising pay. There is no structural shortage of pilots caused by say a low birth rate in 1990. It is a supply and demand issue that is correctable by raising pay.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 53):
If American were going to shrink ORD in any way? What would it gain them?

What ORD proabably needs to refleeting and proper gauge.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:35 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 74):
ORD is a good place for a hub. Problem is the market is very fragmented between three carriers.

It's a great place for a hub. DEN is also a great place for a hub. But both have 1-2 carriers too many. UA and AA haven't been shrinking ORD for years because it's paying the bills.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
MAH4546
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Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:57 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 64):
It's just hard to imagine AA making a dent in UA's FFP dominance.

What dominance? AA has the largest share of local O&D in Chicago.
a.
 
AA767LOVER
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:17 pm

Now, let's introduce another potential for ORD to grow . . .
ORD is a great airport IMHO.
AA could add a 738 from ORD-SJO on weekends basis, and a 738 to LIR seasonally as people need a break from the brutal midwest winters. I've been in Champaign, IL in the winter time and I can tell you I would rather be in sunny CR or DR even.
AA could cross-fleet and use US's A319's for ORD-NAS, ORD-SDQ, ORD-PUJ, ORD-POP, ORD-PLS, ORD-GCM, ORD-AUA, ORD-CUR if it doesn't have enough of its own planes to free up in the winter months for these leisure markets. They could be cash cows for great winter breaks, truth to be told.

What are your thoughts on this?
J.I. Tsui, American Advantage Member, United Mileage Plus (Premier)
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:20 pm

Quoting AA767LOVER (Reply 78):

Now, let's introduce another potential for ORD to grow . . .
ORD is a great airport IMHO.
AA could add a 738 from ORD-SJO on weekends basis, and a 738 to LIR seasonally as people need a break from the brutal midwest winters. I've been in Champaign, IL in the winter time and I can tell you I would rather be in sunny CR or DR even.
AA could cross-fleet and use US's A319's for ORD-NAS, ORD-SDQ, ORD-PUJ, ORD-POP, ORD-PLS, ORD-GCM, ORD-AUA, ORD-CUR if it doesn't have enough of its own planes to free up in the winter months for these leisure markets. They could be cash cows for great winter breaks, truth to be told.

What are your thoughts on this?

The concept sounds great on paper, but would it be necessary with options via DFW, MIA and CLT as easy 1-stop connections from ORD?

Some of the high-volume markets, such as NAS, I can totally see. Maybe PUJ or AUA, but certainly not GCM, POP nor CUR.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:02 pm

Quoting AA767LOVER (Reply 78):
AA could cross-fleet and use US's A319's for ORD-NAS, ORD-SDQ, ORD-PUJ, ORD-POP, ORD-PLS, ORD-GCM, ORD-AUA, ORD-CUR if it doesn't have enough of its own planes to free up in the winter months for these leisure markets. They could be cash cows for great winter breaks, truth to be told.

Unless were talking Saturday only service, I dont think ORD is going to see any expansion in the Caribbean or Central America. Like Irishayes points out, with MIA, DFW, and CLT, ORD doesnt need to have flights to that region.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
deltal1011man
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RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:32 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 50):
There will be few if any 50 seat jets but there will be a resurgence in 50-70 props (already happening)

uh....it is already happening? did i miss something somewhere?

Who has ordered a 50 seat prop in the US in the last 10 years?

I think UAX has 30 Q40s....every other prop in the big threes system is older than dirt and for the most part props have been replaced by jets (SF3 for AA,DL. ATR for AA, DL some of the OO EM2 flying for DL, UA) or routes have been cut all together(UA/OO EM2)

and IMHO UA wouldn't have the Q40s if the premerger CO pilots had allowed 70 or 76 seat jets.

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 60):
IAD,

wait what? This is the one that wont but a hub for AA 

I think you mean DCA....  
 
ckfred
Posts: 5148
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 7:16 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 72):
I think ORD is much better for international than domestic, again unless you're AA, where it's probably pretty terrible from every angle.
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 75):
It's a great place for a hub. DEN is also a great place for a hub. But both have 1-2 carriers too many. UA and AA haven't been shrinking ORD for years because it's paying the bills.

So, are you suggesting that UA and AA should both bail on ORD, and that ORD should simply be a spoke for UA, AA, and DL, and the primary Chicago hub would be Southwest at MDW?

Of course, with a metro area of 8 million, that makes a lot of sense.

But seriously, has we all forgotten that the landing fees at ORD are among the most expensive in the U.S.? AA and UA pretty much told the City that they won't pay for a western terminal or the 6th east-west runway, when the City seems to be focused on getting more LCCs into ORD, rather than figuring out how to get more AA and UA aircraft into ORD. So, while the fees remain high, UA and AA make ORD more O&D, while AA sends east-west traffic through DFW, and UA sends more traffic via IAH.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3937
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 7:48 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 72):
I think ORD is much better for international than domestic, again unless you're AA, where it's probably pretty terrible from every angle.

Did I miss something?? When Exactly did AA lose or has Lost money at ORD?? what facts do you present to back up your statement or is just hyperbole??
last I walked through their terminal? All their gates were FULL of people. The Eateries were full as well.
Maybe you just don't see American's operation there But I see money!
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:33 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 85):
Exactly did AA lose or has Lost money at ORD??

I dont think either UA or AA makes an annual profit at ORD. Jun-Aug sure. Rest of the year, no.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2270
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:49 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 68):
While UA hasn't scaled back in the sense that it has cut destinations or significant fequencies, it has switched a lot of flights from mainline to Express. It wasn't that many years ago that ORD-ATL was all narrowbody, including 757s from time to time. Now, it's all CRJ700s and Embrear 170s. That means for the ORD operations a decline in the number of seats.

That is the perception that people have when they look at ORD but its not actually true. When you compare today's ORD to yesterday's ORD you have to look at the whole picture. Both AA and UA's operation use to rely on more mainline aircraft but with those mainline aircraft there were a lot of empty seats on those plane to certain destinations. You used ORD-ATL as an example and while it is true that in the past UA did send 757's to ATL from ORD there were more empty seats on that 757 than there were passengers on board, the same was true when UA was flying DC-10's from ORD to DTW and CLE and many other destinations that are now rj although there are some exceptions.
Both AA and UA are now using more rj's at ORD in some cases they have increased frequency and they have right sized the market by removing excess capacity. I know it sucks having to fly on a E145 or a CRJ200 but for the most part these flights are going out full now and in time both AA and UA will reduced their reliance on the smaller 50 seater rj's and began using more larger rj's like the E170/175.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 17583
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:56 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 85):
last I walked through their terminal? All their gates were FULL of people. The Eateries were full as well.

The eateries are full??? Well shoot...I guess they are making money. Someone should let AA know so they stop reducing capacity in their super-profitable ORD hub then.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 83):
So, are you suggesting that UA and AA should both bail on ORD, and that ORD should simply be a spoke for UA, AA, and DL, and the primary Chicago hub would be Southwest at MDW?

I'm not really suggesting anything more than CHI is a challenging market for three carriers, and WN is growing there while AA is pretty much the odd man out. The recent gate swap between ORD/LAX is a flavor of things to come--UA probably doesn't need to be in LAX as much as it is currently, and AA is going to continue to "right size" ORD, whatever that may mean in a post merger world.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 76):
What dominance? AA has the largest share of local O&D in Chicago.

I'm not sure that's true anymore, and when you look at revenue it's definitely not.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25753
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 9:02 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 90):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 76):What dominance? AA has the largest share of local O&D in Chicago.

I'm not sure that's true anymore, and when you look at revenue it's definitely not.

It's definitely true, but, yes, revenue, no, it's not.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 90):
The recent gate swap between ORD/LAX is a flavor of things to come--UA probably doesn't need to be in LAX as much as it is currently, and AA is going to continue to "right size" ORD,

There was no "gate swap." Two independent transactions; one would have happened without the other. The ORD gates were ones AA was forced to divest anyway.
a.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3937
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 9:15 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 90):
The eateries are full??? Well shoot...I guess they are making money. Someone should let AA know so they stop reducing capacity in their super-profitable ORD hub then.

They've reduced capacity to support their Pricing power, With less seats available?
They don't NEED to discount, or Consider discounts.
United started that strategy in 2003, it's called "Capacity Discipline".
Offer fewer seats To the marketplace and charge More for the seats offered.
I'm Sure you've read where this has been pointed out before?!?
After the Debacle of 9/11 United said they were no longer chasing Market share Which was 19% at the time.
Instead? they were going to Devote to Pricing capacity and NOT offer any more seats than their Price would support.
Why so you think it is that there haven't been fare sales in the past 12 years except for Southwesrt??. (and even they don't need to)
American, Delta and United don't NEED to !!.
Why is it you see the Load factors at 85-90% and NO increase in Capacity?
Because 62.7% LF was Break even. so now 20-25% Above? Allows the Majors to call the shots.
They're going to GET passengers .
How is it you've seen 4 major Mergers and in the end??
The seat count was LESS than the previous total of the 8 airlines that merged into 4?
And you're going to see it HOLD too !! .
Mark my words.
You ain't seen Nothing Yet !!
 
EricR
Posts: 1226
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:15 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:08 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 92):
Why so you think it is that there haven't been fare sales in the past 12 years except for Southwesrt??. (and even they don't need to)
American, Delta and United don't NEED to !!.
Why is it you see the Load factors at 85-90% and NO increase in Capacity?
Because 62.7% LF was Break even. so now 20-25% Above? Allows the Majors to call the shots.
They're going to GET passengers .
How is it you've seen 4 major Mergers and in the end??
The seat count was LESS than the previous total of the 8 airlines that merged into 4?
And you're going to see it HOLD too !! .
Mark my words.
You ain't seen Nothing Yet !!



The capacity controls are only a temporary "fix". By temporary, I mean several (3 to 5) years. Between now and 2017, NK is expected to double the size of its fleet and more than double the amount of seats available. B6 has 72 planes that are expected to arrive between 2015-2017.

Therefore, while legacies want to keep capacity tight to help drive higher profits, smaller carriers are rapidly expanding and stealing domestic share from the stagnant legacies by offering cheap fares. Unfortunately, the economics we see today won't hold. This is good news for the consumer in the long term as additional capacity is added by smaller carriers over the next 5 years. However, on the flip side, this will cause challenges for the legacies.
 
User avatar
jetblastdubai
Posts: 1867
Joined: Sun Aug 18, 2013 10:23 am

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:26 pm

Regardless of what AA has planned for ORD in the future, they'll be doing it with 4 fewer gates than the combined AA/US has currently. They're either going to have to use their existing gates much more efficiently, drop some frequencies or a combination of both.

Meanwhile, UA just picked up 2 ex-US mainline gates as part of the merger shuffle. These gates could probably be reconfigured to accomodate at least 3 RJs (maybe more?) and free up some mainline gates in T1 that RJs are using for additional mainline aircraft. I doubt that UA will put any mainline in T2 and since the E175s are flying premium routes, they'll hopefully never see T2 either.

I see AA's position at ORD slipping a bit in reality.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 17583
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:34 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 91):
There was no "gate swap." Two independent transactions; one would have happened without the other. The ORD gates were ones AA was forced to divest anyway.

Whatever it was 1) the idea that AA had to give up gates in ORD for competition is laughable and 2) I still think it's taste of things to come, with increased focus on LAX and holding onto what they have at ORD at best.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 92):
They've reduced capacity to support their Pricing power, With less seats available?

In terms of seats MIA is way up, DFW has grown, LAX is growing again after being slightly down, and ORD is down more than JFK even...
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
peanuts
Posts: 980
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 1:17 am

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:43 pm

Why would AA want to make it that easy for UA? For that reason alone they're staying. AA is benefiting (and will benefit even more) from a lacking-any-significant-momentum-UA.

AA wants to make ORD extra lean and mean. A mixture of DTW and MSP. Nothing more, nothing less.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Wed Jun 11, 2014 2:39 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 89):
Regardless of what AA has planned for ORD in the future, they'll be doing it with 4 fewer gates than the combined AA/US has currently. They're either going to have to use their existing gates much more efficiently, drop some frequencies or a combination of both.

AA at ORD has very very low gate utilization. My recollection was WN at DAL had the highest in the industry and AA at ORD the lowest. FL at ATL has to be quite low now too.
 
ckfred
Posts: 5148
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Wed Jun 11, 2014 2:42 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 84):
You used ORD-ATL as an example and while it is true that in the past UA did send 757's to ATL from ORD there were more empty seats on that 757 than there were passengers on board, the same was true when UA was flying DC-10's from ORD to DTW and CLE and many other destinations that are now rj although there are some exceptions.

I used to fly ORD-ATL a lot on AA, when it was a mix of MD-80s and F100s. Those planes were usually full, and often there were offers of giving up seats for vouchers. I've seen the same at UA, when it was mostly 737s and 727s on the route. It was DL who you wondered how they filled 757s, L-1011s, and 767s.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 84):
Both AA and UA are now using more rj's at ORD in some cases they have increased frequency and they have right sized the market by removing excess capacity. I know it sucks having to fly on a E145 or a CRJ200 but for the most part these flights are going out full now and in time both AA and UA will reduced their reliance on the smaller 50 seater rj's and began using more larger rj's like the E170/175.

But, isn't part of the issue that AA is running more connections via DFW than ORD, espeically on east-west routings? This all started, not because of the inability to make money at ORD, but because ORD was getting so delay prone. In fact, the straw that broke the camel's back, according to the FAA, was when AA shifted some STL flying to ORD, as part of the first downsizing of the STL hub.

When the FAA forced all of the domestic carriers to reduce their flying into and out of ORD, that flying shifted to DFW. But, when the operational caps were dropped in November of 2008, with the opening of the 3rd east-west runway, AA didn't shift any flying back to ORD.

If you want an example of upgauging, look at DL on ORD-ATL. It wasn't that many years ago that DL actually had RJs on the route, as well as some of NW's DC-9s. Now, it's a combination of 738s, 739s, 752s, and MD-88s.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 85):
I'm not sure that's true anymore, and when you look at revenue it's definitely not.

AA has historically had a greater percentage of its ORD traffic as O&D than UA, and that was before AA shifted a portion of its east-west connecting traffic to DFW. If you hang around AA at ORD, its surprising how many times, when the elites are called for boarding, 1/3 to 3/4 of the gate empties before general boarding begins. To me, that indicates that a lot of Chicago travelers are loyal to AA. Do you really want to hand over that much traffic to UA? And trust me, there are people who won't fly WN out of WN, regardless. They either have to drive past ORD to get to WN, or they are a bit snobby and want a reserved seat and some perks for being a road warrior.

WN is simply not got going to become a preferred carrier for large Chicago companies like McDonald's, Abbott Labs, Walgreen's, or Kraft Foods.

It was in Crain's Chicago Business a couple of years ago that AA, with the Chapter 11 filing, was going after any company with a large Chicago presence that had UA as its preferred carrier. Corporate contracts have gone back and forth in Chicago. AA got a lot of UA business after the pilot sick-out in 2000. AA lost a fair amount of that business, because of UA offering better prices after its bankruptcy and AA starting down the RJ route at ORD. Now that UA has gone down the RJ route and AA have a better cost structure, I can see AA getting some business back from UA.
 
chicawgo
Posts: 391
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:55 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 93):
When the FAA forced all of the domestic carriers to reduce their flying into and out of ORD, that flying shifted to DFW. But, when the operational caps were dropped in November of 2008, with the opening of the 3rd east-west runway, AA didn't shift any flying back to ORD.


Yeah that is when the economy was collapsing! The entire industry shrank. You can't just say this without considering the context.

Despite all the doom and gloom on this thread, AA still is quite a strong force at ORD. I for one just switched to AA after being a lifelong UA loyalist (elite for the past 7 years). For my travel patterns, AA is actually far superior than UA.

For example: I fly ORD-LGA frequently. AA is all mainline and has more flights than UA (i.e. more than hourly). And I don't think I'm the only to which this route is important.

I go to Vail once a year... AA has DAILY ORD-EGE in the winter. UA has NONE.

I either go to SJD or CUN in the winter. AA has 1-2 daily ORD-SJD in the winter. UA fluctuates between 2-4 WEEKLY. AA has 3-4 daily ORD-CUN. UA has 2.

Someone must be flying these planes! And the fares are not cheap. So for many in Chicago, who really is the "hometown" airline?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25753
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:08 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 90):
1) the idea that AA had to give up gates in ORD for competition is laughable

Of course it's laughable, but that was part of the DOJ settlement.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 90):
2) I still think it's taste of things to come, with increased focus on LAX and holding onto what they have at ORD at best.

I don't disagree that there will be a significantly increased focus at LAX over the next 2-4 years - more long-haul (PEK, AKL), more connecting to smaller Western cities (MOD, COS, GEG) and more mid/trans-cons (MCI, ATL, TPA). I don't expect much growth at ORD, but I absolutely expect a lot of new routes connecting O'Hare with the Northeast (ALB, PVD, MHT, PWM).
a.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:13 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 96):
I don't disagree that there will be a significantly increased focus at LAX over the next 2-4 years - more long-haul (PEK, AKL), more connecting to smaller Western cities (MOD, COS, GEG) and more mid/trans-cons (MCI, ATL, TPA). I don't expect much growth at ORD, but I absolutely expect a lot of new routes connecting O'Hare with the Northeast (ALB, PVD, MHT, PWM).

I don't believe LAX-PEK will occur before DFW-PEK.

Does AA's business venture with QF cover NZ as well or just Aussie ?
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 17583
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:35 pm

Quoting peanuts (Reply 91):
Why would AA want to make it that easy for UA?
Quoting ckfred (Reply 93):
Do you really want to hand over that much traffic to UA?

It's not about handing the traffic over--it's about how much effort is it going to take to hold its share, never mind increase, and more importantly, is the prize even worth it? If it's going to take lots of money and assets to get AA to a point where it breaks even in ORD, is that a better use than growing LAX/MIA/DFW where the payout may be much higher?
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
AAplat4life
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:14 am

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:38 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 97):
It's not about handing the traffic over--it's about how much effort is it going to take to hold its share, never mind increase, and more importantly, is the prize even worth it? If it's going to take lots of money and assets to get AA to a point where it breaks even in ORD, is that a better use than growing LAX/MIA/DFW where the payout may be much higher?

Let's see here. We're talking about an airline for years touts its massive new aircraft on order for a few years, but yet we still see too many beaten-up, noisy MD80s and small RJs at ORD that get all filled up. On some routes, even with 738s, passengers are left behind because the plane is full. So instead the new A321s go on other routes with plenty of capacity. The main Admirals Club between H and K concourses is often jammed. The airline's management fell asleep while the Star Alliance took over many of its routes to Europe with better service (remember the half-assed renovations of the 767s) and just sat back and said well all of our business customers can connect through LHR.

So the answer is less about how much money and assets it will take, but the need to make better management decisions.
 
ckfred
Posts: 5148
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: New AA Plans For ORD

Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:26 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 96):
I don't expect much growth at ORD, but I absolutely expect a lot of new routes connecting O'Hare with the Northeast (ALB, PVD, MHT, PWM).

What about balancing out frequencies between ORD and DFW. For instance, to TPA, there are 3 flights out of ORD and 7 out of DFW. To LAS, there are 11 flights out of DFW and 4 flights out of ORD.

I understand that AA has DFW all to itself, and it won't be until Octtober, before the Wright Amendment limitations disappear, letting WN fly to all of the U.S. from DAL.

Still, it's frustrating to live in Chicago and see that residents of the Metroplex have so many more choices on AA to many destinations.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 97):
It's not about handing the traffic over--it's about how much effort is it going to take to hold its share, never mind increase, and more importantly, is the prize even worth it? If it's going to take lots of money and assets to get AA to a point where it breaks even in ORD, is that a better use than growing LAX/MIA/DFW where the payout may be much higher?

I still question all of the talk that ORD doesn't make money. The reason that AA, over the years, closed RDU, BNA, SJC, and STL, was that the metro areas served by those airports didn't generate enough O&D traffic. Despite the lousy economy in Illinois, Chicago is a metro area of 8 million and a number of large corporations. Yes, there is some price competition between AA and UA out of Chicago, but it's Southwest that has traditionally been the airline that has kept Chicago fares down.

If AA gets rid of ORD, you could very well lose corporate contracts that also affect LAX, DFW, LGA/JFK, and MIA. If a company like Abbott Labs, headquartered in the north surburbs, doesn't have AA as an option for its Chicago employees, it could decide that employees throughout the country will fly DL or UA. Some companies do have multiple preferred carriers. My wife worked for one company that had UA for Chicago employees, AA for PHX employees, US for employees flying out of DCA or BWI, and UA or US for employees in PIT. But others have a single carrier.


Quoting AAplat4life (Reply 98):
Let's see here. We're talking about an airline for years touts its massive new aircraft on order for a few years, but yet we still see too many beaten-up, noisy MD80s and small RJs at ORD that get all filled up. On some routes, even with 738s, passengers are left behind because the plane is full.

Have you noticed that the MD-80s are disappearing from ORD, and being replaced with 738s. A friend of mine is a 738 captain based at ORD. Every month, the MD-80 lines shrink by a few lines. It could be that within a year or two, ORD will no longer be an MD-80 crew base, and that all MD-80 flying out of ORD will be with DFW crews.

ORD-LGA is now all 738, and ORD-BOS was all 738 in 2012. By the same token, ORD got the E175 first, and flights that had the smaller Embrears are now seeing the CRJs.

Bumping people at ORD isn't new. I've volunteered my seat when flying MD-80s and F100s, and that was back in the 1990s. It's easy to say that a flight should have an A321, rather than a 738 (and a new one arrives at least once a month), but perhaps the flight can't fill an A321. It's better to bump people from a 738, than use a 757 or A321 that regularly leaves with empty seats.

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