EricR
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 2:51 pm

While it may be convenient for the AS faithful to blame DL, let's not forget that what put AS in such a tough predicament today are the decisions that AS's management made over the past 10 years which looked great in the short term, but places them in a tough environment long term.

AS believed they could maintain their dominance in the Northwest simply by code sharing with multiple airlines. This strategy, they believed, would not only reinforce their position in the Northwest, but also eliminate the need for those code share partners to invade this part of the country. Most people were saying how brilliant of a move this was, however, it was a shortsighted and bad decision long term. AS relied too heavily on other carriers, who they do not control, to support their own network. Highly risky.

In addition, AS management has done a poor job diversifying itself outside of the Northwest. Playing a defensive role in the airline industry is not a recipe for long term success. AS attempted to diversify by developing focus cities in some western destinations, but what AS really needed was a bigger long term strategy.

Don't blame DL for making business decisions to make itself a stronger airline. Blame AS management for lack of a long term strategy. What is AS long term strategy? They have none. Good luck achieving that ROIC goal with the position they now find themselves in. They are not looking to fly trans-oceanic routes. They are not planning on developing new domestic hubs to diversify risk. AS long term strategy is playing a defensive strategy which leaves it prone to acquisition by another carrier or financial hardship.
 
strfyr51
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 4:26 pm

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 177):
People here are all over the board. There are those in the David vs. Goliath camp, betting on AS sending DL back to ATL where they came from. There are those in the everyone can co-exist and thrive camp. Then there are those in your camp, with the idea that Delta is going to slaughter Alaska and pick up the left overs that they want. The reality is, nobody really knows whats going to happen - all we have are a bunch of opinions. Time will tell. One thing I know for sure, less competition isn't good for anyone except the remaining airlines. If Delta were able to squash Alaska (which I, personally, don't see happening) then the landscape for consumers becomes more and more bleak. Less competition means less choice, higher fares. Bad news for everyone.

**************************************************************************************************************************************************
some of you see too many "Boogey men"... You set up scenarios to have controversy that nobody but YOU care about.
As a matter of FACT? Nobody but those of you on this board even see!!
Delta needs a western gateway to-From Asia, PDX . SEA, LAX SFO Somewhere.
They're not taking anything away from AS unless AS gives it AWAY.
And by the way. Why is it AS needs to be in "cahoots" with anybody?? They're not going to run anybody off of any routes..
Unless DL launches a hostile Takeover of AS? Then they'll continue to Co-exist.
US Air took over PSA and everybody thought they were trying to take over the west coast from United.
American took over Air Cal and everybody thought American was seeking western dominance over United, Well??
The SFO and LAX Hubs are still there and stronger than EVER.
Southwest is strong at OAK, Nobody is going to run anybody out of business !!!
if Alaska wanted to get bigger? They could and would probably acquire widebodies if their business plan called for it.
All this other stuff is "balderdash", complete nonsense !!
Why not wait and see what Alaska's earnings are?? That'll tell the story.
Delta is RE-doing what Northwest had already done because they DID once have a gateway at SEA. .
When Delta closes their Hub at SLC or MSP and redeploys the assets to SEA? THEN you'll have a scoop..
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 200):
In addition, AS management has done a poor job diversifying itself outside of the Northwest.
Quoting EricR (Reply 200):
Playing a defensive role in the airline industry is not a recipe for long term success. AS attempted to diversify by developing focus cities in some western destinations, but what AS really needed was a bigger long term strategy.

I couldnt disagree 100% more. AS has been adding new markets from SEA and PDX on a monthly basis. A lot of those markets DL wont be able to serve like AUS, OMA, STL, MCI etc. It would have been reckless and stupid to open a hub in the east or midwest, where they have ZERO brand loyalty. If they had opened a hub in say STL, theyd be waging a losing battle in STL against WN along with a battle in SEA with DL. You think that would be better?
 
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mayor
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 5:22 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 201):
American took over Air Cal and everybody thought American was seeking western dominance over United, Well??

Which, if my memory serves me correctly, was a response to the DL/WA merger.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
777STL
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:11 pm

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 177):
The post you're referencing wasn't about capitalism or free markets, or even competition. It was about the way in which Delta tried to force Alaska into an exclusive partnership. One that would have benefited Delta, not Alaska. And yes, when you're the thousand pound behemoth with seemingly unlimited resources going up against a much smaller company, your chances of winning are better.

I was referring to the incessant whining and crying from the toddler-like AS fans while they stomp their feet and cry,"It's not faaaaaaaiirrrr!". Armed robbery, really?

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 177):
People here are all over the board. There are those in the David vs. Goliath camp, betting on AS sending DL back to ATL where they came from. There are those in the everyone can co-exist and thrive camp. Then there are those in your camp, with the idea that Delta is going to slaughter Alaska and pick up the left overs that they want. The reality is, nobody really knows whats going to happen - all we have are a bunch of opinions. Time will tell. One thing I know for sure, less competition isn't good for anyone except the remaining airlines. If Delta were able to squash Alaska (which I, personally, don't see happening) then the landscape for consumers becomes more and more bleak. Less competition means less choice, higher fares. Bad news for everyone.

I agree here. I think DL is predatory enough that this could become reality. However, I don't see how DL is doing anything wrong, ethically or legally, by doing so. I'm a fan of the free market. That's what this is.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 178):
This kind of thing became a much greater possibility when these mega-mergers were allowed.

Of course. DL could sit there and hemorrhage money for years in SEA in the name of wiping AS off the face of the planet, if that's what they really wanted to do. That's based on sheer size alone. Although knowing DL, I'm sure they'd manage to turn a profit while doing so.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 194):
You're the only one that is saying anything about AA being AS' knight in shining armor. I didn't, but the truth is, AA and AS have been longstanding partners since way before DL entered the picture. There's a foundation to build on and when the day comes that AA doesn't have a use for AS, it's a good bet that AS will be a stronger airline that they are even today. You see it differently, fine. You have your opinion and I have mine - at the end of the day, they're both just opinions.

From a network perspective, AA has nothing to gain from a tie up with AS. Service to some podunk towns in Alaska? Whoop-dee-doo. A toe hold in SEA? Ok, maybe. From a competitive standpoint though, I don't see AA voluntarily entering a blood bath with DL for SEA for the sole benefit of AS. The new AA likely has a few too many hubs as it is, they need to focus on finishing this merger and consolidating their operations before they go on the warpath again.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 195):
And more airlines are reaching out to AS for partnership talks than usual.

Takeover bait. AS is still small enough that one of the big four could acquire them without much hassle from the DOJ.

Quoting Prost (Reply 196):
The best agreement I can see between AA/AS, and this is a longshot that encompasses many different conspiracy theories, is if AA downsized PHX, AS then takes over the operation.

This doesn't make much sense to me. If AA decided they can't or don't want to make money in PHX, I'm not sure why they'd simply hand it over to AS and I'm not sure why AS would want to make a play for PHX either. PHX's potential problems are its redundancies with DFW, and to a lesser extent LAX. Having AS come into PHX and take over operations isn't going to solve that problem.
PHX based
 
DDR
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:31 pm

Part of Delta's heritage is Northwest Airlines. I simply see Delta's growth in SEA as reclaiming part of its heritage. Because NW is now part of DL, it seems to me that DL has every right to be in the Pacific Northwest. As has also been stated, DL didn't really have much of a choice for placement of their Pacific Hub. SEA was really their only option.

AS is a GREAT airline. It is well run and has a great reputation. It could not, however, provide enough of the feed that DL needs for an international hub. For whatever reasons, AS chose to continue feeding other airlines instead of freeing more seats up for DL. Delta simply did what it had to do in order to put butts in seats. No use operating an international hub if you can't fill the flights enough to make a profit.

ORD survives with AA/UA. ATL has always had two hubs. The same situation occurs at various other airports around the world. SEA shouldn't be regulated to just one major carrier. AS and DL can both survive and be profitable in SEA. If everyone can step back for 5 seconds and leave emotion out of the equation, this doesn't seem so bad.

The only way that I think DL in SEA could harm AS is if AS was planning on operating an international hub out of SEA and from everything I have read, they have no intention of doing this. If I lived in SEA, I would be proud of the hometown airline but I would also be proud of all the nonstop international destinations that DL is bringing to the city. These new destinations will help the economy by adding jobs and hopefully, cause businesses to consider moving to the Seattle area.

The people of SEA are lucky because the 2 airlines with the best customer service have built hubs in their town.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Topic Author
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:47 pm

Quoting 777stl (Reply 104):
As someone that works in food distribution for a living, unless you're going to some super high end seafood restaurant which excludes any sort of buffet, I can tell you that's not true.

Most of the seafood in the deervalley buffett is caus

Quoting 777stl (Reply 204):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 195):
And more airlines are reaching out to AS for partnership talks than usual.

Takeover bait. AS is still small enough that one of the big four could acquire them without much hassle from the DOJ.

No way would Delta be allowed to merge now. They have so much overlapping traffic and routes. Delta is spending all of this money and work growing at SEA pointless and a waste of money if they were gonna take over AS. Plus you do realize they made it 10000% harder by adding all of these competing routes and making AS angry. No chance DL and AS merge anytime soon they are spending alot of money on SEA giving it a run.

Airfares have gone up, airlines are making record profits, and elected officials are mad at the airlines on fees and hubs lost so i can promise you any mergers with the legacies will face more competition down the road. The airlines all got their merge partners it was only fair to let AA do it also but you saw how increased questioning and pressure they got with not very much overlapping networks. AS-DL would see the politicians in OR, WA, CA, HA coming out in full force doing everything possible to stop it. AS is a lifeline in the state of Alaska those small cities and cargo are not something delta would want to run or could be trusted to run. How are those CVG and MEM hubs that were promised to remain open, now?
 
EricR
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:16 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 202):

couldnt disagree 100% more. AS has been adding new markets from SEA and PDX on a monthly basis.

With all due respect, I think you missed the main point. All of those new markets you mentioned are out of their Northwest stronghold. This only increases their reliance on their SEA hub. Here is one thing to consider. AS has been around since the 1940's, but is still primarily a regional carrier. The airline has never been able to find a strategy to get out of that regional niche.

AS's regional niche strategy worked well when the industry was much more fragmented, but management failed to foresee the risk associated with remaining a regional carrier and supported by code share partners during the decade of consolidation. AS put their future in the hands of other carriers. They assumed that code sharing with multiple partners would protect them against another airline turning SEA into a major hub. This strategy worked well for AS as long as they could accommodate the needs of their code share partners. However, now that SEA will no longer be a fortress hub for AS, they will need to focus more on competing as a strategy instead of focusing on code sharing as a strategy.
 
klkla
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:17 pm

Quoting 777stl (Reply 204):
Takeover bait. AS is still small enough that one of the big four could acquire them without much hassle from the DOJ.
Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 206):
No way would Delta be allowed to merge now. They have so much overlapping traffic and routes.

I have to agree with 777stl here. If you look at recent mergers the divestitures required by the gov't have been in areas where it wasn't possible for another carrier to effectively complete (IE LGA, DCA, LHR). That's not the case with SEA. Any airline that wants to fly out of there can. Worse case scenario is they would make the combined DL-AS give up some gate space.
 
EricR
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:30 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 202):

It would have been reckless and stupid to open a hub in the east or midwest, where they have ZERO brand loyalty. If they had opened a hub in say STL, theyd be waging a losing battle in STL against WN along with a battle in SEA with DL. You think that would be better?

Do you believe the situation they are in now puts them in a better position long term? You mentioned that opening another hub elsewhere would have been reckless, but AS has to find some way to get out of its regional niche. Over the past 70 years, they have been unable to do so.

AS may be a well run airline with a good track record of customer service and financial results. But that is in the past. One must ask the question what have they done to position themselves for the future. I think this is the area where they have failed. Even if they are able to hold off DL's attempt to build a SEA hub, they still have to find a better long term strategy that mitigates its risk going forward. They are too vulnerable the way they are currently structured.
 
strfyr51
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:50 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 203):
Which, if my memory serves me correctly, was a response to the DL/WA merger.

If that's so? then Why didn't AA retain the hub at OAK and SJC and make it BIGGER?? They got in and got OUT!
USAir abandoned SAN, LAX and OAK hubs and then west coast altogether.
In My opinion? The emergence of Alaska is directly attributed to them..
Alaska and Southwest just filled the void they both Left
 
Prost
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:00 pm

Any carrier can co pete in SEA? Let's say Spirit wanted to come to Seattle and set up a 35 flight/day operation (I'm talking purely hupothetically here) what gates could they use?

And my remarks about Alaska taking over a hypothetical PHX divestiture by AA was purely made tongue in cheek. Hence why I mentioned it as a full A380 operation. I guess I was too subtle? Seattle Times has finally started covering the story:

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...gy/2023849614_deltaseattlexml.html
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:09 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 209):

Why do they have to be out of their regional niche. Even with Delta in SEA, AS has record earnings. Ok so their other hub to expand is PDX. Going to STL or RDU or wherever would be a disaster.
 
Prost
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:21 pm

DL's build up won't really affect AS's earnings until the third and fourth quarters of 2014. My guess us we won't see any impact until 2015, though. AS's ace in the hole is their VERY clean balance sheet. That is a legacy of their brilliant management and hard work of their great employees.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:22 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 210):
Why didn't AA retain the hub at OAK and SJC and make it BIGGER??

AA never had a hub at OAK, but your point is well taken.

If DL were to pursue AS for a merger they'd promise not to cut AS's route structure. They day after the merger was approved stuff like SJC/OAK/BLI to Hawaii would be gone. The some of the PDX and SAN non-stops would be gone. Then they'd start discontinuing a lot of the non-stop SEA flights in favor of routing people through SLC, ATL and MSP.
 
klkla
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:33 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 211):
Any carrier can co pete in SEA? Let's say Spirit wanted to come to Seattle and set up a 35 flight/day operation (I'm talking purely hupothetically here) what gates could they use?

Hence, that's why I said:

Quoting klkla (Reply 208):
Worse case scenario is they would make the combined DL-AS give up some gate space.
 
ASFlyer
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:26 pm

Quoting 777stl (Reply 204):
I was referring to the incessant whining and crying from the toddler-like AS fans while they stomp their feet and cry,"It's not faaaaaaaiirrrr!". Armed robbery, really?

I didn't say anything about armed robbery. The only thing worse than the incessant whining and crying from the AS fans is the indignant, arrogance of the DL fans.

Quoting 777stl (Reply 204):
From a network perspective, AA has nothing to gain from a tie up with AS.

You might want to let AA know that because they've been in "a tie up" with AS since long before Delta ever had any kind of an agreement with AS. In fact, AA had agreements with AS since before NW even. The AS/AA "tie up" actually wasn't that much smaller than the AS/DL 'tie up". Going forward, I think that AS is just looking to strengthen the bond and increase the scope of the agreement. Nothing to lose for either side.
 
EricR
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:33 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 212):

Why do they have to be out of their regional niche. Even with Delta in SEA, AS has record earnings. Ok so their other hub to expand is PDX.

Because a regional niche approach does not provide them with the scale needed to defend against their only hub without having material impacts to their financials. Keep in mind that many of the announced DL routes have not started yet. Therefore, you will not see an impact on financials for the next several quarters.

PDX is a completely redundant hub and serves more for O&D purposes than connectivity. PDX's close proximity to SEA and small catchment area make it a poor secondary hub. I don't think there are many viable expansion opportunities out of PDX. Those that can support the possibility of a new route would be competing with SEA for the connecting traffic.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 212):

Going to STL or RDU or wherever would be a disaster.

Something to consider......WN, NK, B6, VX, G4 all had a much shorter history than AS, yet have been able to successfully expand beyond a regional carrier. As a result, they are much less prone to significant downside risk should one of their main hubs be invaded by another carrier.

I don't know if opening a hub in another part of the country would have been the right answer necessarily, but other carriers with a much shorter history have been able to do it successfully. At a minimum, they should have been looking at expansion options or merger options long ago.
 
ASFlyer
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:37 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 217):
Something to consider......WN, NK, B6, VX, G4

You can't really compare NK or G4 to AS. COMPLETELY different business models. NK is looking more and more like Allegiant all the time. Focus cities all over the country, with one or two flights a day. ULCC. They don't cater to a business crowd and don't even pretend to want to.

VX? VX just turned it's first profit. So they really haven't done anything successfully to this point. Other than the recently announced DAL focus city, they've got two hubs - the same two they started with. LAX and SFO. Both on the west coast. As for the DAL focus city - that's anything but a sure bet. Since it hasn't even started yet, the jury is still out.

The majority of B6's operation is on the east coast. In fact, they are a lot similar to AS in terms of network. With the exception of the small (and shrinking) LGB hub. Other than that, they have BOS, JFK, MCO and FLL. Right along the East Coast. One big difference between Jet Blue and Alaska is that Jet Blue has grown dramatically. They're having troubles trying to figure out how to continue making money as their costs go up as the airline matures.

WN may be the only fair comparison of a real example of an airline that really took the ball and ran with it and did really well. Part of Alaska's success to this point has been their philosophy of slowly, methodically and organically growing the airline. That said, it could also end up causing them problems going forward.

It's a little scary to think, the landscape of the airline industry as we see it now is probably never really going to change, save for the elimination of one or two carriers possibly. DL, AA, UA, WN and whoever manages to survive amongst the "niche carriers" (AS, VX, B6, G4, NK) It would be virtually impossible for an airline to start new services because the size of the competition is so great that there is really nothing you could do to avoid being squashed right out of the gate.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 217):
I don't know if opening a hub in another part of the country would have been the right answer necessarily, but other carriers with a much shorter history have been able to do it successfully

youre worring about AS going under and they are still the most profitable airline of the legacies. Opening another hub is a bad bad idea in another part of the country. The industry is still over hubbed.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 218):
It would be virtually impossible for an airline to start new services because the size of the competition is so great that there is really nothing you could do to avoid being squashed right out of the gate.

Wrong...people said that in the 1990s and since then a bunch of airlines have started up. What WN, AA, DL, UA are doing by consolidating and shrinking is leaving a lot of potential revenue on the table for niche carriers to pick up. With 4 legacies, there isnt a need for a fifth, there might be a need for niche carriers.

One thing I think is that DL cannot buy AS now that they have moved into SEA. It would be blatantly anti-competitive. Especially since we will likely see fares drop and traffic increase
 
ASFlyer
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 1:13 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 219):
Wrong...people said that in the 1990s and since then a bunch of airlines have started up. What WN, AA, DL, UA are doing by consolidating and shrinking is leaving a lot of potential revenue on the table for niche carriers to pick up. With 4 legacies, there isnt a need for a fifth, there might be a need for niche carriers.

One thing I think is that DL cannot buy AS now that they have moved into SEA. It would be blatantly anti-competitive. Especially since we will likely see fares drop and traffic increase

Comparing the industry in the 90's with what we have today is like comparing apples to oranges. The landscape is so vastly different. During the 90's there was about five times as much competition as there is today. Today, there are four large carriers, and a variety of regional airlines to partner with them. Each of the majors has resources to outlast any kind of start up that threatens their business. The Four large airlines control all major markets in the country. I can't see where a new airline could potentially start service and actually be successful.

There are 11 noteworthy U.S. airlines around today, not including the regionals that serve them. That's about half the number that were around in the late 90's. My personal opinion is that figure will be smaller in a couple years.
 
OP3000
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 1:34 am

Quoting etops1 (Reply 162):
What AS needs to do is enter a strong codeshare with AA and join oneworld.

I agree with a stronger codeshare partnership. Other than the foreign carriers that they can still codeshare with, domestically there is not much of a benefit now to continue splitting hairs now. It will also make it more difficult for DL to grow stronger in SEA.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 220):
I can't see where a new airline could potentially start service and actually be successful. There are 11 noteworthy U.S. airlines around today, not including the regionals that serve them. That's about half the number that were around in the late 90's. My personal opinion is that figure will be smaller in a couple years.
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 219):
With 4 legacies, there isnt a need for a fifth, there might be a need for niche carriers.

Allegiant, Spirit, Jetblue and even Virgin America are good recent examples of airlines that have developed significantly in the past 5 years or so during the already-existing consolidation trend. As airlines consolidate their are more "crumbs" left for smaller niche players to pick up. Outside of manufacturing that has happened lots in pretty much every other service-based sector of the economy for years.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:21 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 207):
All of those new markets you mentioned are out of their Northwest stronghold. This only increases their reliance on their SEA hub.

Right out of the gate, the loads out of SLC to all of AS's new markets are outstanding. I think AS underestimates their reputation for great customer service...and their lower CASM might make any well-researched new market(s) a success no matter what they try. The only thing holding them back I think is their name...sounds too regional and not the first airline that comes to mind from say SAN-MCO or SJC-KOA.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:40 am

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 220):
Comparing the industry in the 90's with what we have today is like comparing apples to oranges. The landscape is so vastly differen

youe right. The Legacies were more predatory then and the LCCs were much weaker than today.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 220):
Each of the majors has resources to outlast any kind of start up that threatens their business

That was true 30 years ago in 1984. I mean did who did People Express put of out business beside themselves? Ditto Air Florida?
 
chrisair
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:48 am

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 222):
sounds too regional and not the first airline that comes to mind from say SAN-MCO or SJC-KOA.

Maybe they should advertise more?

Speaking of all that, when is this "new brand" coming out?
 
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Tomassjc
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:00 am

Quoting chrisair (Reply 224):
Speaking of all that, when is this "new brand" coming out?


From what I've read internally , the font and Chester are staying...for now.

Tom in SJC
When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
 
ASFlyer
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:00 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 223):
youe right. The Legacies were more predatory then and the LCCs were much weaker than today.

What was considered predatory in the 90's is now just the free market working the way it's supposed to. There were some strong LCC's in the 90's. America West, Frontier, Southwest, Spirit. There were also a handful of start up carriers that didn't last for long (Vanguard, Hooters Air, Midway Airlines II...).

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 223):
That was true 30 years ago in 1984. I mean did who did People Express put of out business beside themselves? Ditto Air Florida?

Again, you can't compare airlines in 1984 with the airlines of today. What kind of an airline existed back then that was the size of Delta or American or United? None. Not one.
 
ridgid727
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:12 am

Quoting chrisair (Reply 224):
Maybe they should advertise more?

In SLC they have really been pushing the airwaves, and there are billboards from Logan in the north to Provo in the South, and they are also on UTA Busses and the Trax Trains
 
chrisair
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:46 am

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 227):
In SLC they have really been pushing the airwaves, and there are billboards from Logan in the north to Provo in the South, and they are also on UTA Busses and the Trax Trains

That's good to hear. I rarely see them do any advertising in California or even PDX for that matter, minus a few billboards here and there.

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 225):
From what I've read internally , the font and Chester are staying...for now.

Good to hear. I don't want to replace my North of Expected tag.  

By the way, good to hear from you, Tom. I'll be through SJC a little more on you guys in the next few months. See you around.
 
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mayor
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 4:24 am

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 227):
In SLC they have really been pushing the airwaves, and there are billboards from Logan in the north to Provo in the South, and they are also on UTA Busses and the Trax Trains

WN did that, too, when they came to SLC. The media was drooling all over themselves that Southwest was coming to town that they almost forgot about the legacy of their "hometown airline", Western and it's successor, DL.  
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:11 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 229):
WN did that, too, when they came to SLC. The media was drooling all over themselves that Southwest was coming to town that they almost forgot about the legacy of their "hometown airline", Western and it's successor, DL.

What "legacy"? Western had an operation much like Southwest's predecessor, Morris Air, until about 5 years before Delta acquired them. That's when they developed SLC as a full fledged hub. Still, they were a Los Angeles based airline for almost all of their existence. Morris Air was actually the "hometown airline" in the truest sense of the word. Started and operated by a local family, the Morris family, until they were absorbed into Southwest Airlines in 1994.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:51 am

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 227):
In SLC they have really been pushing the airwaves, and there are billboards from Logan in the north to Provo in the South, and they are also on UTA Busses and the Trax Trains

AS has a real mission to succeed in SLC its not just a spoke they can pull and try another. They have a very aggressive expansion and alot of seats to fill. They went from not even serving the market to a focus city.

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 222):
Right out of the gate, the loads out of SLC to all of AS's new markets are outstanding. I think AS underestimates their reputation for great customer service...and their lower CASM might make any well-researched new market(s) a success no matter what they try.

AS is being helped alot because of connections i bet. People are flying SAN-SLC-OMA or LAS-SLC-JAC. They are really allowing their frequent flyers to stay on their metal longer, but relying on connections from delta. They must see how many of their people are on Delta metal and see money to be made on connecting flights. It would be so cool if AS tried a route that not even Delta flies i would love it if they tried a SLC-FLL red eye. There is lots of o&d and they can fly a redeye with no problem on gate space.

Lets see what AS can do for expansion at SLC maybe busing people to the plane or letting them walk onto Horizon Air? The gate space problem does not look like an easy solve or one Delta is gonna help them resolve.
 
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 8:39 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 217):
I don't know if opening a hub in another part of the country would have been the right answer necessarily, but other carriers with a much shorter history have been able to do it successfully. At a minimum, they should have been looking at expansion options or merger options long ago.

In other words, you are just pontificating out your kazoo based on little more than rhetoric, droning on about AS management decisions, mindset, and planning as if you have any idea at all what they have actually been planning for, anticipating, or working on behind the scenes. It's pretty easy to just sit here today and say how incompetent they are for not doing [fill in whatever grandiose 20/20 hindsight vision you have here] without really knowing what may have come of those decisions.

New hub somewhere else? Perhaps tens of millions in losses, a reduced stock price, and ultimately a takeover.

Interesting that you'd call that direction 'doing something' or 'planning for the future' when the course they've chosen has led them to record profits and a healthy company.

You say that they haven't foreseen the future need to expand outside their area? Yet they were already working on a rebrand that would make them [ideally] more relevant to the national scene. Sure, not on your timetable, but your timetable may have already had them swallowed up years ago.

This may all end ugly for AS, but I'd take their decisions, vision, and experience over your retro criticisms any day.

-Dave
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:23 am

]

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 232):
This may all end ugly for AS

Or on the other hand,, for DL it may end kinda like what they tried in PDX and so many times in LAX too. Interesting with DL how history repeats itself.
 
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:27 am

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 233):

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 232):This may all end ugly for AS
Or on the other hand,, for DL it may end kinda like what they tried in PDX and so many times in LAX too. Interesting with DL how history repeats itself.

I'm of the opinion that the Delta of 2014 is a different organism than the Delta of LAX Past or the DL of PDX Past. They are bigger, smarter, richer, and more deliberate. They are playing for keeps and willing to ruffle whatever feathers they need to ruffle to get what they want.

I'm not predicting AS' doom. I'm just not closing my eyes to any outcome.

-Dave
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ridgid727
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:48 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 234):
I'm of the opinion that the Delta of 2014 is a different organism than the Delta of LAX Past or the DL of PDX Past. They are bigger, smarter, richer, and more deliberate. They are playing for keeps and willing to ruffle whatever feathers they need to ruffle to get what they want.

Yes, they are a different ORGANISM, after being bankrupt (twice- Nw and DL)
 
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 11:11 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 205):

The people of SEA are lucky because the 2 airlines with the best customer service have built hubs in their town.

Interesting. I knew about AS, but had no idea B6 or WN were moving in. All I've been hearing about is some tired old legacy.

Quoting Prost (Reply 213):

DL's build up won't really affect AS's earnings until the third and fourth quarters of 2014.

I think that's fair. It also remains to be seen just how much effect there actually will be. It could end up that this is a tempest in a tea pot.

Quoting Prost (Reply 213):
AS's ace in the hole is their VERY clean balance sheet. That is a legacy of their brilliant management and hard work of their great employees.

And I think this can't be said enough. They have a very strong track record on this and the effects of that going forward aren't likely to change to the tune of some armchair types here.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 216):
The only thing worse than the incessant whining and crying from the AS fans is the indignant, arrogance of the DL fans.

Can I get an Amen?, lol. While DL is the best of the legacies, hands down (still not really much of a complement, but hey...), yes, the fan club is insufferable, a and usually sufficiently divorced from reality.

While not awful, we cheerfully forget that DL is an airline that didn't know what Europe was until 1978. Or that they charge for bags. Or have NK's definition of seat pitch. Or ATL.

As I said, they're not the worst (never, as long as there's an AA out there), but I just can't see why all this kool aid has been ordered up.

In any case, I don't personally believe it will happen, but SEA losing AS in exchange for more DL would be a terrible choice.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 218):

VX? VX just turned it's first profit. So they really haven't done anything successfully to this point.

As someone who enjoys the hell out of VX (which I guess makes me a fan), I have to agree. I don't see where this guys gets the idea that they've done better than AS, by any metric.

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 225):

From what I've read internally , the font and Chester are staying...for now.

Good.

Quoting mayor (Reply 229):
The media was drooling all over themselves that Southwest was coming to town that they almost forgot about the legacy of their "hometown airline", Western and it's successor, DL.  

I'd forget all about DL too if WN were about to start up in my town for the first time.
"Ya Can't Win, Rocky! There's no Oxygen on Mars!"
"Yeah? That means there's no Oxygen for him Neither..."
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 1:48 pm

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...gy/2023849614_deltaseattlexml.html

Nothing we don't know already but an interesting read
 
strfyr51
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 1:51 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 214):
AA never had a hub at OAK, but your point is well taken.If DL were to pursue AS for a merger they'd promise not to cut AS's route structure. They day after the merger was approved stuff like SJC/OAK/BLI to Hawaii would be gone. The some of the PDX and SAN non-stops would be gone. Then they'd start discontinuing a lot of the non-stop SEA flights in favor of routing people through SLC, ATL and MSP.

American Didn't but Air CAL Did. And American bought Air Cal.
 
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mayor
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:14 pm

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 230):
What "legacy"? Western had an operation much like Southwest's predecessor, Morris Air, until about 5 years before Delta acquired them. That's when they developed SLC as a full fledged hub. Still, they were a Los Angeles based airline for almost all of their existence. Morris Air was actually the "hometown airline" in the truest sense of the word. Started and operated by a local family, the Morris family, until they were absorbed into Southwest Airlines in 1994.

But, until WN bought Morris Air, Morris Air was a charter operation. And for all the hoopla about WN coming to town, they haven't exactly knocked DL out of business, there, have they?
BTW, SLC was Western's "hometown" airline in the sense that their first commercial flight originated from there.

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 236):
While not awful, we cheerfully forget that DL is an airline that didn't know what Europe was until 1978.

You "cheerfully" forget about DL's interchange to LHR and FRA with Pan Am on DC-8s and 747s. You also forget that, unless I'm mistaken, that only TW and PA "knew" about Europe at that time. Doesn't seem like much reason to put them down, when, in the 70s, they weren't much more than a large regional carrier, with the exception of some routes.

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 236):
All I've been hearing about is some tired old legacy.

Yeah, so "tired" that they're making money, hand over fist.

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 236):
Can I get an Amen?, lol. While DL is the best of the legacies, hands down (still not really much of a complement, but hey...), yes, the fan club is insufferable, a and usually sufficiently divorced from reality.

Jealousy is such an ugly thing.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
incitatus
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:53 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 172):
Because AS has such a strong hold on local traffic, Delta needs to do two things:

Your posting was very well written and logical. This thread should have stopped right there.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 4:12 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 239):

Yeah, so "tired" that they're making money, hand over fist.

We'll see how long that lasts. Sustained profitability isn't exactly something that legacies know much about. Capital destruction, on the other hand...

Honestly, I don't see anything you can point to and say that DL is markedly better off with that didn't exist prior to ch 11 (and you'll notice that's not something AS ever had to resort to). You guys still have decently high labor costs, substandard hard product, an increasingly devalued FF program, but most of all, nothing that really says I should fly with you rather than someone else.


These are problems that the legacies never seem to get fully away from, and I don't think you really see that. So when you say "making money", I see something more analogous to the way people "feel" rich when they get their tax refund. I'm really just looking at a particular side of a boom/bust cycle here.

If DL is still making nine figures a year a decade from now, we can revisit the issue. But until then, don't kid yourself. You're not WN.

Quoting mayor (Reply 239):

Jealousy is such an ugly thing.

It is. But with the sustained record of reliable success that companies like AS and WN generate, as well s being consistently favored by the flying public, you can totally be forgiven for feeling that way. They're a tough act to follow, even for the almighty DL,  
Quoting mayor (Reply 239):
You also forget that, unless I'm mistaken, that only TW and PA "knew" about Europe at that time

You are. AOA did that too, but that's ancient history.
"Ya Can't Win, Rocky! There's no Oxygen on Mars!"
"Yeah? That means there's no Oxygen for him Neither..."
 
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mayor
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 241):
You are. AOA did that too, but that's ancient history.

So is 1978, but you were the one that brought it up........and, for that matter, was AOA even in operation in 1978 (since that's the time period you're referring to)?
DL may not have been flying to Europe in '78, but they were flying to the Caribbean and South American at that time.


Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 241):

It is. But with the sustained record of reliable success that companies like AS and WN generate, as well s being consistently favored by the flying public, you can totally be forgiven for feeling that way. They're a tough act to follow, even for the almighty DL,

But, it's catching up to WN, now isn't it? As far as AS is concerned, while being a well run, profitable company, I wonder if things would be different if they were truly a global carrier, or for that matter, a carrier with an extensive domestic system.

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 241):
Honestly, I don't see anything you can point to and say that DL is markedly better off with that didn't exist prior to ch 11 (and you'll notice that's not something AS ever had to resort to). You guys still have decently high labor costs, substandard hard product, an increasingly devalued FF program, but most of all, nothing that really says I should fly with you rather than someone else.

Considering your obvious disdain for DL, it's not surprising that you would be predisposed to NOT want to fly DL. I'll take my criticism from someone with not as much obvious bias against DL......more objective, if you will.

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 241):
These are problems that the legacies never seem to get fully away from, and I don't think you really see that. So when you say "making money",

Since you're so fond of bringing up what you call "ancient" history, you might like to remember how profitable DL was in the 70s, 80s and 90s.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
jetlanta
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 240):
Your posting was very well written and logical. This thread should have stopped right there.

Thanks! I generally know when I've hit the nail on the head when I post something that comprehensive, and nobody says a word. Either they agree, or it makes too much sense to deny. So the bickering continues via other posts. LOL
 
catiii
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Mon Jun 16, 2014 10:45 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 239):

Also, and someone refresh my memory, but where are those airlines that knew so much about Europe pre 1978 today? Oh that's right, out of business.  

Anyway, congrats to DL on their new HKG flight from their Seattle hub: http://news.delta.com/2014-06-16-Del...aunch-of-Seattle-Hong-Kong-service
 
EricR
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:40 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 232):

you are just pontificating out your kazoo based on little more than rhetoric, droning on about AS management decisions, mindset, and planning as if you have any idea at all what they have actually been planning for, anticipating, or working on behind the scenes. It's pretty easy to just sit here today and say how incompetent they are for not doing [fill in whatever grandiose 20/20 hindsight vision you have here] without really knowing what may have come of those decisions.

Remember this comment every time you post something because unless you have inside information (which you don't), everyone of your posts falls along this exact same line.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 232):

New hub somewhere else? Perhaps tens of millions in losses, a reduced stock price, and ultimately a takeover.

Interesting that you'd call that direction 'doing something' or 'planning for the future' when the course they've chosen has led them to record profits and a healthy company.

So, using your own words, you are just pontificating out your kazoo based on little more than rhetoric, droning on about AS management decisions, mindset, and planning as if you have any idea at all what they have actually been planning for, anticipating, or working on behind the scenes.

What makes you believe a new hub was not contemplated by AS management? You really have no idea that this would have resulted in lost millions and a reduced stock price and ultimate takeover.

I never said AS had to open another hub. I did say they needed to diversify outside of the Northwest region and I did not know if opening a hub was necessarily the answer, but diversifying was necessary (see reply 217 last paragraph). Opening a hub is one way, but not the only way. One thing I did mention is that they should have looked at merger opportunities, and they easily could have been an acquirer based on their solid balance sheet.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 232):

Interesting that you'd call that direction 'doing something' or 'planning for the future' when the course they've chosen has led them to record profits and a healthy company.

The past means little if not positioned properly for the future. If AS has a rough time competing against the DL in SEA, investors and employees aren't going to say, "that's ok because AS had record profits in the past". Executive management is paid well to properly plan for the future. It is clear based on AS viscous response that they are concerned because as SEA goes, so does AS.

[Edited 2014-06-16 19:42:53]
 
ridgid727
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:18 am

 
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mayor
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:15 am

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 246):
The new AS BOI-SLC flight made the Boise news.

http://www.ktvb.com/news/business/Al...lt-Lake-City-flight-263320761.html

Slow news day in BOI, apparently.  
Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 241):
Quoting mayor (Reply 239):You also forget that, unless I'm mistaken, that only TW and PA "knew" about Europe at that time
You are. AOA did that too, but that's ancient history.

Keep in mind.....you were talking about 1978 in reference to DL and Europe..........


From Wiki:

"AOA was acquired by PAA but on May 17, 1950, the US CAB ruled against this merger.[10] President Harry S. Truman, however, overturned the CAB decision, and AOA was merged into what would become Pan American's Atlantic Division on September 25, 1950. This unit would ultimately become part of Delta Air Lines."


Did you pick up on the irony of that?
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
ASFlyer
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:26 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 239):
But, until WN bought Morris Air, Morris Air was a charter operation. And for all the hoopla about WN coming to town, they haven't exactly knocked DL out of business, there, have they?
BTW, SLC was Western's "hometown" airline in the sense that their first commercial flight originated from there.

Morris Air was not a charter operation when Southwest bought them. They ran scheduled flights using their own aircraft.

By most definitions, a "hometown airline" is one that is based there. Delta is Atlanta's hometown airline. I don't think it applies to any of the other cities in Delta's system.

Quoting mayor (Reply 239):
Jealousy is such an ugly thing.

So is passive aggressiveness, a good old southern quality  Wink

[Edited 2014-06-16 22:32:16]
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: For Those In Denial That Delta Isnt Going After AS

Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:27 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 245):
So, using your own words, you are just pontificating out your kazoo based on little more than rhetoric, droning on about AS management decisions, mindset, and planning as if you have any idea at all what they have actually been planning for, anticipating, or working on behind the scenes.

Unlike you, I never claimed to.

Quoting EricR (Reply 245):
I never said AS had to open another hub. I did say they needed to diversify outside of the Northwest region and I did not know if opening a hub was necessarily the answer, but diversifying was necessary (see reply 217 last paragraph). Opening a hub is one way, but not the only way. One thing I did mention is that they should have looked at merger opportunities, and they easily could have been an acquirer based on their solid balance sheet.

So....wrapping my head around this....if they don't open another hub outside the northwest, but they need to diversify outside the northwest, but starting routes outside of the northwest from Seattle/Portland isn't diversifying outside of the northwest.........???

Just trying to envision what you think that would look like. Perhaps the one-off SJC-AUS type of routes? Well, they've done that with modest success, so to say they haven't tried or thought about it is not accurate. There has been an ebb and flow of those types of routes.

If you are talking merger, that implies a hub outside the northwest, possibly a rebranding, etc. That has worked at times. It's also failed miserably at times. Were it a slam dunk or even only a moderate risk, I'd imagine they'd have done it by now. The industry has been littered with the corpses of airlines that tried expanding too fast, too far, or merging with the wrong carrier. While we don't know what the future holds, we can pretty safely say that the course that Alaska has chosen to date has served their employees and shareholders well. Will it be enough to get them through? I guess we'll see. I'm fairly confident that they have done better than they would have had they merged with (fill in the blank).

Quoting EricR (Reply 245):
The past means little if not positioned properly for the future. If AS has a rough time competing against the DL in SEA, investors and employees aren't going to say, "that's ok because AS had record profits in the past". Executive management is paid well to properly plan for the future. It is clear based on AS viscous response that they are concerned because as SEA goes, so does AS.

Of course. However, you are taking the situation today and retroactively telling us what Alaska should have done and how they've been irresponsible etc. Five years ago, they probably looked like geniuses to many of the same people who would now criticize them today. If the economy tanks and DL retreats in SEA due to outside factors, will they once again be in good graces with the critics? And it's very likely - almost a given - that had they undertaken your desired expansion that they WOULDN'T have had those record profits (or perhaps any).

My point - my only point, really - is that you have no problem criticizing past decisions with the benefit of a crystal ball. Did you know that DL and NW would declare bankruptcy, merge, abandon CVG and MEM, and go for a SEA hub....in 2003 or 2004? When we were still post-9/11, in the middle of a two-front war, dealing with Swine Flu, etc? I guess you really are smarter than the folks at AS to have seen through all of that and known that they should have thrown caution (and profits, and possibly their very survival) to the winds in order to expand nationally.

If AS goes down. If they are merged off into someone bigger. If things just are never the same. If they really are as vulnerable and affable as people here make them out to be, I won't throw them under a bus. I'll look at them as having done the best they could do with the operation they had, put up the good fight, did their employees and shareholders proud, and had no reason to hang their head low.

Quoting EricR (Reply 245):
Remember this comment every time you post something because unless you have inside information (which you don't), everyone of your posts falls along this exact same line.

But again, I'm not Monday morning quarterbacking them as if they are some sort of misfits who bungled things. You are correct - we aren't in the executive suite. We haven't had all of the information or been privy to the discussions all along the way that has gotten AS to where they are today. That we may or may not agree with their choices is really irrelevant to reality, as we weren't there.

I guess I resent someone disparaging what has clearly been a stellar management team and airline group because you now think you know - in 2014 - all the right decisions they should have made along the way, as if those decisions would have magically been better. It just seems gratuitous, but it's your choice.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.

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