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UA444
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:48 am

Maybe the rumor of them looking at the 747-8i actually has some legs now.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:50 am

It will be interesting to see what EK does. If they really add 70 777-X and can dictate the 777-X development goals to Boeing, I can easily see 777-X other customers go for the A350 instead. 777-9 is quite big, if they add even more range, it will be a unique plane. (just like the 777-8)
 
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Heavierthanair
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:50 am

G'day

Seems to me the 50 A380's were swapped for the 50+20 A 350 order at the time. As to why this swap was not announced at the time in December last year remains a mystery. For Emirates they surely are not going to pay any cancellation penalties, the order for the new A 380's which is about of the same value as the A350 order it replaces.

Emirates is also not going to buy substantial numbers of 77W instead - some top ups maybe. Those would no arrive much earlier than the cancelled A 350-1000, which is going to do the same but at some 20% lower costs. Doesn't make sense.

I believe the game changer was the 777-X whose larger capacity provides for growth on the present 77W routes and for Emirates it becomes available at roughly the same time as the A350-1000 originally planned for that role. Seems the A 350 was always a bit on the small side, with Emirates always voicing disappointment over the A 350-1000 capabilities - justified or not.

I am somewhat flabbergasted as to why Emirates gives away one basket full with eggs while having no eggs in the other basket yet. Unless of course the B 777-X order is a done deal to be announced at the Farnborough show. Neither airlines nor airframers are very open about such deals.

We will know soon enough.


Cheers

Peter
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autothrust
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:51 am

Why would EK want to order the A330 Neo? If they would need a plane in this class the 787 would make more sense.

I highly doubt that, a additional A380 order is more likely.
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:53 am

Honestly maybe that order was even too much for Emirates. I believe they simply don´t have no need for the A350 since they opted for the 777X instead. The A350 order maybe was to play safe as they did not know if Boeing will launch the 777X
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Prost
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:53 am

What aircraft does EK plan on retiring from their fleet in the next 5 years? Do the orders they have cover these retirements plus the growth they anticipate? As the 150 777X hasn't been finalized, is that possibly going to grow? It boggles my mind that 150 777X wouldn't be enough for several carriers, let alone one, but this is EK we're talking about.

Sorry for all my questions, but I'm having difficulty wrapping my brain around the concept of a huge airline who's smallest plane is a 777.

[Edited 2014-06-11 00:57:09]
 
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IslandRob
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:59 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 46):
Even if EK should buy other Airbus planes instead, you do not want to have the press ask why.

Well, the press certainly WILL ask why Emirates cancelled their entire A350 order. You know, I think we just have differing philosophies on PR. In my opinion, if you have only bad news, you should get it out quickly. If you have both good and bad news, you put both out there together, emphasizing the good and discounting the bad. Regards. -ir
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na
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:06 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 50):

Maybe the rumor of them looking at the 747-8i actually has some legs now.

Sad as it is I dont think so. In that case they would have more likely cancelled some 77Ws and 777X.
According to flightglobal this cancellation has to do with EKs last year order of 50 more A380s.

Quoting columba (Reply 54):
Honestly maybe that order was even too much for Emirates. I believe they simply don´t have no need for the A350 since they opted for the 777X instead. The A350 order maybe was to play safe as they did not know if Boeing will launch the 777X

  
 
mrcomet
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:10 am

You all live in your own little world on this site. Emirates doesn't care about offsetting bad and good news. And I wouldn't necessarily expect some replacement order. And it am sure they will offset penalties if any on future buys. I suspect the decision to cancel these birds was made a month or so before the 777x order and that is what is replacing these. They just decided to go bigger is all. Probably no serious reflection on the A350. Airbus and Boeing are EKs biyatches and they will make all sorts of special exceptions for the airline.
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BestWestern
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:11 am

Has Emirates just blinked?
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KarelXWB
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:14 am

Airbus didn't knew Emirates was going to cancel the order until this morning:

Quote:
Airbus Leahy first heard of Emirates A350 cancellation this morning but knew Emirates CEO was reviewing fleet plan
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Ab345
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:16 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 60):

I wouldn't want to be around John Leahy at the time of the call  Wow! Very saucy development this morning
 
StTim
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:17 am

That is very interesting that it was not known at Airbus for some time.
 
Prost
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:19 am

Well, in his defense, John Leary sold the planes. They just didn't stay sold! I wonder if Emirates would have considered taking the planes and immediately reselling them, either to a competitor or a leasing firm? Launch pricing would have given them great pricing, but Airbus would then be competing with one of their best customers.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:20 am

Quoting LTH (Reply 48):
These new 70 slots won't hurt the 787 or the 777X sales. The first 787-10 is scheduled to have its EIS in 2018 and I'm sure there are a few more airlines out there that are highly interested in the 78Js capabilities. For 777X there will be continuous demand since the 777-9X is a class of its own and we will have to see how many -8X will be ordered since its more of a niche plane, but shares commonality with the -9X.

Airbus now has the opportunity to sell A35Js when Boeing:

a) actually wanted to play the availability game with the 77W vs. the A350 (just like the A330 does with the 787 now). That is going to be bit more difficult.
b) Airbus can offer Airlines A35J years before they can get their hands on the 777x, which almost definitely will cost the model sales and maybe some fleet decisions.
c) Airbus has extra slots available just after EIS of the 787-10, also enabling them to sway fleet decisions from the 777x/787 combo to the A350 family.

Working in sales of long term items myself, i see this more advantageous for Airbus as it will make them sad. Availability has a pretty high value.

best regards
Thomas
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frigatebird
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:22 am

I first thought this news was another hoax, but the Airbus announcement makes it official...

At first this may seem very surprising, but on second thoughts it isn't. EK has said that their smallest aircraft should be a 300-seater. In EK configuration, the A350-900 isn't. So, many people expected EK to convert their order to -1000s. This didn't happen. I thought it was because they needed the A350s ASAP to replace their old A330s, A340s and 777s before the -1000 was available, but EK didn't have early production slots. So why take just a few A359s and then convert the remainder to -1000s? It would make more sense to convert their whole order to -1000s and skip the -900 altogether. But if this was the plan, it should have happened long ago.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
Quoting FirstClass (Reply 4):what a blow to airbus
I'm not so sure.
Perhaps EK brought up this issue privately, during the time that they negotiated their most recent A380 order.
And, as popular as the A350 is (742 remaining orders, after EK's cancellation), I'm sure Airbus didn't hesitate to "trade up" to the rather slow-selling but HIGH VALUE A380.

I strongly believe these are related. Remember EK saying at the Dubai airshow the 50 A380 order materialised from nothing in just a few days? Maybe it went like this:
TC: "John, we don't want our A350 order anymore. They're too small."
JL (jokingly): "Sure Tim, just order 50 A380s and then we'll happy to accomodate you"
A little later:
TC: "John, we've thought about your offer to trade in the 70 A350s for 50 A380s and we've decided to agree"...
 

Usually, Airbus is rather slow to reflect a cancellation in their order books. They said they will show it in the June orders, which is kind of proof to me it was agreed quite a while ago. Now they just finalised the paper work.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 8):
...as crazy as it sounds, but maybe they just lined themselves up for 70 A330-300NEO instead?

Very, very unlikely IMO. The A350 will always be a more capable and efficient plane. EK had launch discounts for the A350 and would have got it still earlier then an A330neo. Makes no sense   

Quoting 777ER (Reply 17):
Airbus gains more A380 orders and EK can cancel a now unwanted A350 order without paying a hefty fine. Now that is certainly a WIN/WIN

Agreed. The A380 needed more orders, the A350 is a success with or without an EK order.
Still, EK has let Airbus down a little bit more than once. First there was the 20 A346 order EK cancelled, then a MoU for 30 A333s they never firmed, and now this A350 cancellation... this quite a few    Anyway, with so many A380s on order, you won't hear Airbus complain about EK. Some quirks you just need to accept from your largest customer  
Quoting ElbowRoom (Reply 29):
Will they generally open routes with 77W in future?

Yes, they are already doing this right now. But when they start replacing their 77W's with 779's, I believe they will need another (smaller than 777-9) type of plane to open new routes. So, in due time, EK might re-order the A350-1000 again because I believe it will be their best option.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 37):
Just from a PR point of view, you want to have the bad news out, before you have something good to announce. You do not need a large A350 cancellation cloud your A330NEO launch.

Yes, absolutely agreed. Farnborough is just a month from now. With all the good news to be expected there, no-one will talk about the EK cancellation any more. It will be old news.
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tommy1808
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:23 am

Quoting prost (Reply 63):
I wonder if Emirates would have considered taking the planes and immediately reselling them, either to a competitor or a leasing firm?

Since EK doesn´t really buy much in the way of Aircraft, that would be highly surprising.

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Thomas
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IslandRob
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:26 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 60):
Airbus didn't knew Emirates was going to cancel the order until this morning:

Ah! That puts things in a whole new light! I can imagine that Emirates told Airbus, "Either you make an announcement forthwith, or we will." In other words, maybe Airbus had neither the time nor the opportunity to spin things optimally. -ir
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wzafar
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:27 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 65):
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 65):
Yes, they are already doing this right now. But when they start replacing their 77W's with 779's, I believe they will need another (smaller than 777-9) type of plane to open new routes. So, in due time, EK might re-order the A350-1000 again because I believe it will be their best option

Isn't that what the 777-8X is for?
 
Part147
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:30 am

Maybe Emirates are eyeing up the new widebody Russia and China are planning to build ... ?
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AirbusA6
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:34 am

Hmm, fascinating timing. Get the bad news out of the way now, so the good news can be stage managed at Farnborough.
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81819
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:36 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 46):
I personally expect them to be launch customer of the A330NEO, it should make for a great plane on sub 5000nm routes and for opening routes. The A359 is too close to the 777-X.

It just might be optimal for EK to tag sub 5000nm routes with long range flights to increase usage of the 777 (hours/day flown) aircraft.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 60):
Airbus didn't knew Emirates was going to cancel the order until this morning:

This is interesting. IF JL didn't know and by consequence there are no new orders linked with this cancellation it could also suggest there are no penalties associated with the cancellation.

Looks like EK negotiated some very favourable contract terms.
 
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frigatebird
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:38 am

Quoting LTH (Reply 48):

The Airbus press release states that the first delivery to EK was scheduled for 2019.

Missed that, thanks. That's later than I thought. Since EK already placed their order in 2007, I believe deliveries must have been deferred on EK's request some time ago. Must be the reason Airbus was able to sell rather early slots to late customers like LH and CX.

Quoting UA444 (Reply 50):
Maybe the rumor of them looking at the 747-8i actually has some legs now.

EK has publicly declined these rumors.

Quoting prost (Reply 55):
What aircraft does EK plan on retiring from their fleet in the next 5 years? Do the orders they have cover these retirements plus the growth they anticipate?

All A330s, A340s and 777s which aren't 300ER's. 77W's still on order should take care of that.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 60):
Airbus didn't knew Emirates was going to cancel the order until this morning:

Quote:Airbus Leahy first heard of Emirates A350 cancellation this morning but knew Emirates CEO was reviewing fleet plan

I cannot imagine this came out of the blue for Airbus. If so, Airbus wouldn't have released an immediate press release. EK must have demanded at least a free cancellation clause for their A350 order before, possibly when they ordered the 50 A380s last year, perhaps valid until a few weeks before Farnborough.
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a380900
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:38 am

I know what happened. The NSA has turned its massive surveillance apparatus against Emirates' staff and they have found ways of blackmailing/influencing them into a less Airbus friendly procurement policy.

Expect some 748i orders soon!
 
LTH
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:38 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 64):
Airbus now has the opportunity to sell A35Js when Boeing:

a) actually wanted to play the availability game with the 77W vs. the A350 (just like the A330 does with the 787 now). That is going to be bit more difficult.
b) Airbus can offer Airlines A35J years before they can get their hands on the 777x, which almost definitely will cost the model sales and maybe some fleet decisions.
c) Airbus has extra slots available just after EIS of the 787-10, also enabling them to sway fleet decisions from the 777x/787 combo to the A350 family.

A) I don't know when the first A350 slots are available if you want one now, but the 777 is available from 2016/17 and we've seen some late 77W customers like some Chinese airlines or especially LX. And yes, availability is a key question.

B) If an airline needs the capacity or the range of the 777X they'll order it. If they need the capabilities of the A350 they'll take it. (We've just seen EK doing it.)

C) I agree. I'm excited for the decision DL for example is going to take. Additionally: We can expect Airbus to launch the A330neo with good availability.


LTH
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:40 am

Quoting Ab345 (Reply 61):
I wouldn't want to be around John Leahy at the time of the call   Very saucy development this morning
Quoting StTim (Reply 62):
That is very interesting that it was not known at Airbus for some time.

The A380 order last year was also announced in a similar way: Emirates gave Airbus a telephone call 1 day before the start of the Dubai air show, saying they want to order 50 more A380s.
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frigatebird
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:42 am

Quoting wzafar (Reply 68):
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 65):Yes, they are already doing this right now. But when they start replacing their 77W's with 779's, I believe they will need another (smaller than 777-9) type of plane to open new routes. So, in due time, EK might re-order the A350-1000 again because I believe it will be their best option
Isn't that what the 777-8X is for?

Doubt it. The 777-8X is an ULH plane and EK will use it for specific ULH routes. The A350-1000 will be a more efficient airplane, to use the 777-8X for opening new routes seems not the best option. But who knows, EK has used the 77L for opening routes too.
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KarelXWB
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:45 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 72):
I cannot imagine this came out of the blue for Airbus. If so, Airbus wouldn't have released an immediate press release. EK must have demanded at least a free cancellation clause for their A350 order before, possibly when they ordered the 50 A380s last year, perhaps valid until a few weeks before Farnborough.

Emirates arrived in Toulouse this morning for the Airbus Innovation Days and said they want to cancel the order. Both parties will go through the contracts in the coming days.
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IslandRob
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:46 am

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 70):
Hmm, fascinating timing. Get the bad news out of the way now, so the good news can be stage managed at Farnborough.

Well, according to KarelXWB in Reply 60, Emirates just dumped the cancellation news on Airbus this morning!

And, once Airbus was notified, I doubt they could sit on the news - i.e., they had a responsibility to disclose it in a very timely manner, regardless of any planned Farnborough announcements. -ir
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migair54
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:47 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 60):
Airbus didn't knew Emirates was going to cancel the order until this morning:

I think this is just acting, i´m sure if Emirates wants to cancel such a big order the first they do is contact Airbus to bargain for the cancelation fee and try to reduce or trade for something else, I wouldn´t be surprise if they order more A380 at Farnborough to start replacing the early birds and some extra frames with reduce weight, increase economics and growth.

Quoting Part147 (Reply 69):
Maybe Emirates are eyeing up the new widebody Russia and China are planning to build ... ?

Or maybe they decide to develop their own one....

first A350 was suppose to join in 2019 so they don´t have any early slot, i´m sure it won´t be a problem for Airbus to relocate, Indeed is a big blow for Airbus but the program is doing great so far and hopefully we will see them flying soon in commercial service.
 
Prost
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:47 am

I can see a place for the A350-1000 in EK's fleet, so I wonder why all 70 were cancelled, unless the cancellation clause was an "all or nothing" clause. If EK reorders the A3510 again in the future they will have missed out on launch pricing I presume.
 
CRJ900
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:47 am

I too think that EK needs more seats in their aircraft, hence the A350-900 and -1000 are too small. The B777-8/9 can pack in 350-475 pax and the A380 500-675 pax, just what EK wants and needs.
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parapente
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:54 am

Airbus didn't knew Emirates was going to cancel the order until this morning:

Quote:
Airbus Leahy first heard of Emirates A350 cancellation this morning but knew Emirates CEO was reviewing fleet plan


Of course they did. Come on. This is not a child's game. These are serious mature business people on every side.As to how, why when the announcement was going to be made - well that's a different matter.

Hind sight is a wonderful thing but when they announced 150 777W's -( huge planes) and then chucked in 50 A380's for good measure I guess we should have all seen that something had to give somewhere. The 350-1000's (for instance) made (at that point) no sense at all. And (as been pointed out) they did not like the final configuration of the aircraft in any case.
Having said that I used them last year on a return flight from Dubai to Nairobi. One imagines that they have plenty of destinations like this (Dar etc).I can't see them flying 14 hour 400 - 600 seater aircraft to such destinations so they do need something. The 787-10 or the 330NEO come to mind?
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:55 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 65):
EK has said that their smallest aircraft should be a 300-seater. In EK configuration, the A350-900 isn't.

Not entirely true: the A359 would have more than 300 seats in a two-class configuration.

Emirates also operates two-class configuration aircraft.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 65):
I thought it was because they needed the A350s ASAP to replace their old A330s, A340s and 777s before the -1000 was available, but EK didn't have early production slots.

With delivery slots in 2019, the A350 could not have replaced the old A330s, A340s and 777s in the coming years. I guess the remaining 77W's on order will replace those smaller jets.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 65):
Maybe it went like this:
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 65):
Still, EK has let Airbus down a little bit more than once.

No hard feelings: it's business.
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cv990Coronado
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:57 am

The more I read here the more sense it makes and in a very strange way it could end up being to Airbus's advantage because of the following:-

If it was a kind of swop for more A380's it gives that program a boost which it certainly needed.

It will free up A350 slots for existing customers and for new ones probably at higher prices than EK was paying.

It could mean even more EK orders for the 777X which will make it less available for others. It could also put more pressure on Boeing to make the 777X even more tailored to EK.

Is DXB so tight on slots that EK will have to resort to having the 77W as it's smallest aircraft?
To have to start a route with a 77W is amazing.

Finally EK still to my knowledge hasn't firmed the 77X order. Are they waiting for Farnborough and maybe the cancellation of the A350 was part of the sequence of firming the 777X.
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81819
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:05 am

Quoting cv990coronado (Reply 84):
It could mean even more EK orders for the 777X which will make it less available for others. It could also put more pressure on Boeing to make the 777X even more tailored to EK.

It could also result in the 777X being further optimised for EK's route structure making the (effectively) shorter range A350 the more optimal option for other airlines.

On a side note, I wonder how the financiers currently view the A350. this might give us a better insight in to what is happening here!
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:08 am

Quoting parapente (Reply 82):
Of course they did. Come on. This is not a child's game. These are serious mature business people on every side.As to how, why when the announcement was going to be made - well that's a different matter.

Why would he lie about it?

Emirates simply informed Airbus to cancel the A350 order this morning and will go trough the contracts in the coming days / weeks to negotiate the next steps and financial consequences.
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na
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:10 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 72):
All A330s, A340s and 777s which aren't 300ER's. 77W's still on order should take care of that.

The first 77Ws are planned to leave the fleet in 2016 (likely those on 12 year lease contracts) and will be replaced by new 77Ws. 2016 is pretty soon so retirement of the older 772s and 773s must be imminent.
 
81819
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:15 am

Could the A330NEO have anything to do with this?

It could be the case an A330NEO could undermine the current business case for the A350. If this is the case than airlines would need work through the ramifications of an A330NEO in the market place to re-determine the real value of the aircraft.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:19 am

Rolls-Royce also issued a press release:

http://www.rolls-royce.com/news/pres...ses/2014/110614_emirates_order.jsp

Quote:
Rolls-Royce has been advised by Airbus of the cancellation of an Emirates' order for 70 A350 aircraft. While disappointed with this decision, we are confident that the delivery slots which start towards the end of this decade vacated by Emirates will be taken up by other airlines. Demand for the Airbus A350 remains strong, with more than 700 aircraft and 1,400 Trent XWB engines already sold.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:23 am

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 78):
Well, according to KarelXWB in Reply 60, Emirates just dumped the cancellation news on Airbus this morning!

That being the case a 330 NEO order at Farnborough is unlikely to be in the wings.

Cancellations like this just don't happen out of the blue especially for an airline the stature of Emirates. If Airbus did not know about it until this am, then that is an extremely bad sign of a very poor relationship with their major supplier.


Some possible causes I see;

1. Changed fleet plans due to changed growth plan
2. Performance problem; this does not mean the 350 has poor performance, but simply that it is not the performance that Emirates wants
3. Boeing has made them an offer they can't pass up for more 777 or even 787-10 and future 787-10ER
4. If the order was in the balance anyway perhaps a way to get what they want for the 380 (new engines + or - 900), by showing they are serious.
5. A bargaining tool for better prices etc, and the order will be re-awakened after negotiations.
Of all these, I think 2 is most likely, I think Airbus would have known of the likely cancellation, and that Airbus has been trying to find more performance. (Aero paint and some testing that looks more than certification.)

Ruscoe
 
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SeJoWa
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:31 am

Had I not heard about this cancellation first on the DLF [ Deutschlandfunk, the excellent German public radio ], I would have believed in a rather sick joke. Added background: DLF reports only the most important aerospace news. Emirates obviously makes the cut with their outsized orders.

Negotiations with GE and Boeing to finally close the order of 777-Xs must be ready to be wrapped up now.

My most immediate takeaway is that, after a long genesis and much management and engineering-soul searching, Boeing again has a competition proven winner in the VLA category.

Conversely, the A350-1000 doesn't overnight become less of a fine airplane.


Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 52):
I believe the game changer was the 777-X whose larger capacity provides for growth on the present 77W routes and for Emirates it becomes available at roughly the same time as the A350-1000 originally planned for that role. Seems the A 350 was always a bit on the small side, with Emirates always voicing disappointment over the A 350-1000 capabilities - justified or not.

I am somewhat flabbergasted as to why Emirates gives away one basket full with eggs while having no eggs in the other basket yet. Unless of course the B 777-X order is a done deal to be announced at the Farnborough show. Neither airlines nor airframers are very open about such deals.


Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 64):
Airbus now has the opportunity to sell A35Js when Boeing:

a) actually wanted to play the availability game with the 77W vs. the A350 (just like the A330 does with the 787 now). That is going to be bit more difficult.
b) Airbus can offer Airlines A35J years before they can get their hands on the 777x, which almost definitely will cost the model sales and maybe some fleet decisions.
c) Airbus has extra slots available just after EIS of the 787-10, also enabling them to sway fleet decisions from the 777x/787 combo to the A350 family.

Working in sales of long term items myself, i see this more advantageous for Airbus as it will make them sad. Availability has a pretty high value.


Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 60):

Airbus didn't knew Emirates was going to cancel the order until this morning:

Quote:
Airbus Leahy first heard of Emirates A350 cancellation this morning but knew Emirates CEO was reviewing fleet plan
 
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frigatebird
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:33 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 86):
Quoting parapente (Reply 82):Of course they did. Come on. This is not a child's game. These are serious mature business people on every side.As to how, why when the announcement was going to be made - well that's a different matter.

Why would he lie about it?

Emirates simply informed Airbus to cancel the A350 order this morning and will go trough the contracts in the coming days / weeks to negotiate the next steps and financial consequences.

I'm pretty sure the cancellation clause was ready, and EK and Airbus must have been talking about it until very recently. EK this morning probably informed Airbus they will execute their right to cancel. Terms and conditions are most likely set,all it needed was a signature from EK. It will be reported in the Orders & Deliveries table of June 2014 according to the Airbus press release, so it seems the paper work is already done.
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brindabella
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:33 am

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 16):
Logically EK will make a 2 type fleeo agt for some reason. A380s & 777s, seems a good combination.

  
Long ago, I recall the EK plan was to have two types only:
1. A350.
2. A380.

(For Airbus, a stupendous prospect.)

Then came Clarke's very grumpy comments referred to above when A both deferred and changed the spec. on the A350-1000.
  
Then the major "announcement" RE 150x777X.
  
So I did wonder if a transition was maybe underway to:
1. B777X.
2. A380.

But even given all that, it would seem an odd fleet-profile, with hyper payload/range performers ONLY.
You'd have to wonder if the A330-300NEO / 787-10 are not also being looked-at.
Also that the future home for a bunch of "cheap" 777Classics hasn't just appeared.
Bill
Billy
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:35 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 90):
Of all these, I think 2 is most likely, I think Airbus would have known of the likely cancellation, and that Airbus has been trying to find more performance. (Aero paint and some testing that looks more than certification.)

Doubtful because of the following reasons:

> Both A350-900 and A350-1000 have more design range than the 777-300ER
> The A350-1000 has more design range than the 777-9

It has been 7 years since Emirates placed the A350 order, the business case of the airline has changed and requires larger jets.

Regarding the overall performance:

> The Trent XWB engine is already at spec (even 0.5% better)
> The A350 overweight is minimal and would be eliminated by 2019 (= Emirates first delivery slots)
> Qatar Airways is on record saying the first batch A350s will have better performance than the first 787s
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AyostoLeon
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:36 am

I am wondering exactly what the terms of the contract for the A350 was, as the Khaleej Times quotes "an Emirates spokesman" as saying “The contract which we signed in 2007 for 70 A350 aircraft has lapsed."

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-artic...iation_June11.xml&section=aviation
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crimsonchin
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:43 am

While the news of the cancellation might have been dumped on Airbus this morning, I doubt the cancellation itself was a surprise or unexpected
 
tommy1808
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:46 am

Quoting LTH (Reply 74):
A) I don't know when the first A350 slots are available if you want one now, but the 777 is available from 2016/17 and we've seen some late 77W customers like some Chinese airlines or especially LX. And yes, availability is a key question.

correct, but in the vital 2019-2021 range of the 77W much more economic planes will be available to customers, that will naturally change the balance. If nothing else comes from it, Boeing will have to offer deeper discounts for the last of the line 77W.

Quoting LTH (Reply 74):
B) If an airline needs the capacity or the range of the 777X they'll order it. If they need the capabilities of the A350 they'll take it. (We've just seen EK doing it.)

The A35J flies further than the 777-9x and it is just as much cheaper as it is smaller. Would you rather get 55 A35J starting 2019 or 50 777-9x starting in 2021? Size is good if it comes with a CASM advantage, without it its not so good. Ask Airbus, that they problem the A380 is facing...

Quoting LTH (Reply 74):
C) I agree. I'm excited for the decision DL for example is going to take. Additionally: We can expect Airbus to launch the A330neo with good availability.

And not to forget, Airbus just got some slots canx that they sold for 230 Mio US$ a pop and can now sell for 340 Mio a pop. If they sell A359 again, its 65 Mio US$ list price a piece more and the best, it is not just 4 Billion in extra Revenue, it is 4 Billion in extra Margin.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
na
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:56 am

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 95):
I am wondering exactly what the terms of the contract for the A350 was, as the Khaleej Times quotes "an Emirates spokesman" as saying “The contract which we signed in 2007 for 70 A350 aircraft has lapsed."

That has probably to do with the A380 order last year, not so much with the old A350 contact, Maybe they told Airbus they would be reviewing their fleet planning, and the A380 order included a clause that set them free from any possible A350 cancellation fees.
In any case the A380 order is much more important for Airbus than the A350 order so the manufacturer will surely have given EK very favourable terms.
For their standard routes though its hard to think that EK doesnt need a smaller plane than the 777-9X past 2025 when most 77Ws will be gone. But EK has time to think over it. Maybe its a wise move to wait and see how the A350 performs against the 787 and then place an order for one of those by 2017.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Wow! Emirates Cancels Entire A350 Order

Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:57 am

It looks to me like EK has decided that the 777X fits their needs better than the A350, and they want to reduce the types in their fleet. Usually when an airline swaps one order for another they announce the swap, not the cancellation. I suspect this is what is announced; a cancellation. Whether or not the A380 order earlier will cover the cancellation costs is something about which I have no idea. But it looks to me like EK had ordered the A350 in 2007 because it was the best and biggest new plane on the horizon, as Boeing had not done much or said much about what they were going to do to counter it, and EK probably figured they would simply re-engine the 77W. In that case the A3510 would have been the preferable plane, which is why Boeing did not go that route (because everyone would have come to the same conclusion.) But when the 777X was announced EK realized it was just what they wanted, and committed to a boatload of them. I do not understand why it took them so long to decide that they no longer wanted or needed the A350's, but that is what I think happened. If they had had their act more together then they could have swapped the A350's for the 50 A380's, and maybe their was language in the A380 contract giving them that option. If so, though, I think it would have been publicly mentioned at some point. But it is cheaper for them to swallow the cancellation charges than to be stuck with 70 planes that they do not want.
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