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Indy
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:35 pm

Quoting B4REAL (Reply 96):

Agreed 100%. Reality is whoever doesn't start CMH-Europe wins. Whoever tries it will lose.

Do you have numbers to back up the claim? Like the number of F tickets that will be sold per flight? Number of Y tickets? What the average price per ticket will be? The amount of cargo that will be carried? Maybe you can offer up something that compares the profitability of connecting passengers versus O&D passengers. Maybe something that also figures in the cost of delays into the equation. I am curious how you are so certain CMH-Europe would be a loser.
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B4REAL
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:52 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 100):
The amount of cargo that will be carried?

CMH cargo is 100% fail. There is a free trade zone at LCK and a few airlines operate HKG-ANC-LCK-JFK. Further FedEx and UPS don't have ops at CMH, all at LCK.
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MIflyer12
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:17 pm

Quoting Burchfiel (Reply 12):
BA considering CMH but not CLE or CVG (if this is indeed true) counts as a snub of these faded 'hubs' in my book.

It's not a snub of CVG but recognition that CVG passengers to Europe are already well served by DL's CVG-CDG flight.

Which of the three CVG/CLE/CMH has had continuous non-stop service to Europe for more than twenty years?
 
lhcvg
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Wed Jun 18, 2014 3:23 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 102):

And BTW which one also held on to multiple TATL destinations for a good period as well (CDG, FRA, LHR, with AMS and FCO in there for a while). As it stands now, there's no way you could make money competing with DL there -- everybody who wants to get TATL n/s just hops the DL flight and then connects, DL fills the belly with CFM engine parts, and it works fine. But good luck trying to peel a slice of that off and either/both make money.
 
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mbm3
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Wed Jun 18, 2014 3:58 pm

The CLE - LON flights performed well and were profitable for CO. The primary reason they stopped was a lack of slot once they joined *A (they were leasing from a SkyTeam partner). I would imagine service from CMH would perform fairly well too.

And I do also know that several truckloads of cargo a day go to EWR for shipping to the EU and beyond, perhaps someone like BA could capture it?
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greenair727
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:39 pm

CLE makes far more sense than CMH. CLE is a 4m+ market--probably at least 2x as big as CMH. Furthermore, Cleveland is a much larger economy than Columbus, and with stronger VFR ties to Europe than Columbus.
 
B4REAL
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sat Jun 21, 2014 1:24 pm

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 103):
And BTW which one also held on to multiple TATL destinations for a good period as well (CDG, FRA, LHR, with AMS and FCO in there for a while).

Small note - it was LGW if you were referring to the CVG TATL Glory Days...
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knope2001
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sat Jun 21, 2014 10:55 pm

The moment I saw this thread title last week I figured it would largely be a lot of usual suspects talking up their cities and/or throwing shade on others. And while I wasn't planning on jumping into the fray the link to metro GDP which someone posted earlier offered some interesting data.

GDP is certainly not a perfect indicator of air traffic demand (domestic or international) but it's probably better than population, what people often reference. The economic activity that GDP represents is a key driver of air travel demand.

What lead me to pull some information together and post it is not so much to jump into the fray that city XXX is deserving and city YYY is not. Rather it's to offer some comparative information and to cast some light on the effects of different growth levels. More than a few participants on this board and elsewhere buy the sloppy narrative that certain cities are dead, and that translates into a lazy shorthand of "good" and "bad" places. And obviously "good" places deserve more air service and "bad" places most fill planes of people moving out.

So here are the GDP's of 35 select metro areas for 2012 and the change since 2001. (The tables show 2001 through 2012 which is why I used those dates.) These follow the official definition for combined metro area ( for example Denver = Denver Metro Boulder Metro Greely Metro) but because the GDP stats don't include "micropolitan" areas those are not included. These areas don't necessary match the airports catchment area, and in some cases (like Orlando whose metro area includes MCO, SFB and DAB) there may be multiple airports in an area. But nevertheless it gives us some idea of the economic size of each area and how much it is growing.

I didn't include the top dozen or so areas because they're not really relevant to the discussion -- the only reason I went as high as I did was because of Detroit's relative size.

gdp.......chg 2001-2012......metro area
282741 ….. 63.6% ….. Seattle/Tacoma
243551 ….. 14.0% ….. Detroit
228301 ….. 50.8% ….. Minneapolis/St Paul
201653 ….. 57.2% ….. Phoenix
196187 ….. 50.8% ….. Denver
177410 ….. 55.0% ….. San Diego
171124 ….. 83.3% ….. Portland
155107 ….. 32.3% ….. Cleveland
137189 ….. 67.8% ….. Charlotte
136677 ….. 37.9% ….. St Louis
127111 ….. 44.5% ….. Pittsburgh
124544 ….. 48.7% ….. Indianapolis
122023 ….. 46.3% ….. Kansas City
119926 ….. 54.8% ….. Tampa
119611 ….. 59.0% ….. Orlando
116002 ….. 38.2% ….. Hartford/Springfield
111247 ….. 78.3% ….. Salt Lake City
108236 ….. 39.7% ….. Cincinnati
101123 ….. 78.6% ….. Raleigh/Durham
100512 ….. 39.5% ….. Columbus
98677 ..….. 89.8% ….. Austin
97576 ..….. 41.3% ….. Milwaukee
97558 ..….. 53.4% ….. Sacramento
95602 ..….. 69.5% ….. Las Vegas
94789 ..….. 67.3% ….. Nashville
91995 ..….. 78.6% ….. San Antonio
88554 ..….. 65.4% ….. New Orleans
84836 ..….. 62.1% ….. Norfolk
69016 ..….. 46.4% ….. Louisville
68640 ..….. 30.9% ….. Greensboro/Winston Salem
68612 ..….. 47.0% ….. Richmond
66778 ..….. 38.8% ….. Memphis
63338 ..….. 71.2% ….. Oklahoma City
62251 ..….. 55.9% ….. Jacksonville

I included Dayton not because they are sequentially close (there are many between DAY and JAX) but because they are potentially included in CMH's pitch for service though about equidistant to both CVG and CMH.
37609 ..….. 20.2% ….. Dayton

This is the link where the information came from -- it lists each metro area separately so for officially combined ones (like Salt Lake + Provo + Ogden) they have to be added together.

http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm

The growth numbers cover 2001-2012 so there's an element of recession/recovery in there. There's also no inflation adjustment here either. Take them with a grain of salt. Playing with the numbers a bit if you push out the 2001-2012 growth rates one can see how long it would take for the GDP of XXX to surpass that of YYY. For example at the same growth rates seen from 2001 to 2012, metro Austin's GDP would take until 2024 to catch metro Cleveland.

Again remember that GDP doesn't equate air service demand, and the metro areas used don't necessary match the total air service market for an airport. But I do think this information is worth noting when evaluating some of the assertions boosting one city and slamming another. And it may also be a surprise to some to realize that even though (for example) St Louis is not fast-growing it is still nearly 45% larger than Nashville in terms of metro GDP and projecting out the rate of growth wouldn't have Nashville catching St Louis until 2028. Places like Cleveland, Detroit, etc. may not be big centers of growth but they are not imploding into economic wastelands as some seem to think.

It's not only the economic activity that creates GDP which generates air traffic and there are many other factors which go into a route planning decision. But I do think these numbers tell us something of use in evaluation and armchair quarterbacking.

[Edited 2014-06-21 15:58:49]
 
joeman
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sat Jun 21, 2014 11:35 pm

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 98):
Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 31):

It was CLE-LGW on the 752. Flew it sometime in 2005 or 2006

It was 1999-2008, then CLE-LHR 2009, then dropeed
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 12:09 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 107):
This is the link where the information came from -- it lists each metro area separately so for officially combined ones (like Salt Lake + Provo + Ogden) they have to be added together.

Provo has a thriving high tech industry and is pumping. SLC has two things going for it a thriving economy, and its growing. The Delta thing is gonna be a thing they have to consider. If they add at a non hub STL or CMH no threat and they are friends in CLT so no worries. SLC will be adding a flight into a mrket Delta has fought for years to protect its their super reliable super consistent hub.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 2:53 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 107):
I didn't include the top dozen or so areas because they're not really relevant to the discussion -- the only reason I went as high as I did was because of Detroit's relative size.

Knope, what was your methodology for including or excluding secondary metro areas (e.g. why'd you combine Hartford and Springfield but not Nashville, Clarksville and Bowling Green)?
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knope2001
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 3:56 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 110):
Knope, what was your methodology for including or excluding secondary metro areas (e.g. why'd you combine Hartford and Springfield but not Nashville, Clarksville and Bowling Green)?

Generally the census-bureau-defined Combined Statistical Area (or just the metro area if there's no CSA). However CSA's sometimes include micropolitan areas, and the GDP for those is not listed.

Nashville's CSA includes the 14-county Nashville Metro Area, plus the Shelbyville, Lawrenceburg and Lewisburg micropolitan areas. But because there's no information on micropolitan area GDP that is not included.


There were two exceptions where I linked metro areas not combined as official Consolidated Metro Areas, and those are Raleigh and Durham, and Hartford and Springfield. The reason I did that is that the RDU and BDL airports are traditionally identified as primary cities for those dual-city airports. At first I wasn't going to include RDU and BDL on my list because just using Hartford and Raleigh gave awfully skewed results. So I decided to include Springfield and Durham.

Beyond that, however, trying to assign others to define a true catchment area is a nearly impossible task. In some instances it's relatively clear that metro area X mostly uses airport NNN. But there are countless instances where it is far from clear who deserves credit for what. So I chose to follow the CSA-included metropolitan areas with the exception of RDU and BDL.
 
PITrules
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 5:23 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 107):
GDP is certainly not a perfect indicator of air traffic demand (domestic or international) but it's probably better than population, what people often reference. The economic activity that GDP represents is a key driver of air travel demand.

I think GDP is a great metric for this topic. I just came across this Brookings Institute report which details metro areas based on number of local employees working for foreign businesses. Since this topic deals with a potential new flight to Europe, I think this may also be a good metric to look at. If anything it is one more useful variable added to the equation.

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/res...%20us%20metro%20areas/metrofdi.pdf
page 50

So here are the top metros, starting again with Detroit (#10), and ending with Austin (#36) which just gained the type of service being discussed.

-First value is number of employees working for foreign firms
-Second value is percentage of total workforce working for foreign firms in 1991
-Third value is percentage of total workforce working for foreign firms in 2011

By comparing values between 1991 and 2011 one can get an idea of growth trends regarding employment by int'l firms.


10 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
124,420
7.5%
7.8%

11 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,FL
91,694
4.6%
4.7%

12 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
89,383
5.1%
5.5%

13 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
75,593
4.2%
5.0%

14 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
65,045
3.6%
4.6%

15 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
57,640
6.2%
7.3%

16 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
55,742
3.8%
3.7%

17 St. Louis, MO-IL
53,700
3.6%
4.7%

18 Pittsburgh, PA
51,844
2.9%
5.0%

19 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
50,694
7.0%
13.6%

20 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
50,564
3.7%
5.8%

21 Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO
50,099
4.5%
4.8%

22 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN
49,910
3.7%
6.5%

23 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
48,810
8.2%
6.8%

24 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
48,730
3.2%
4.8%

25 Baltimore-Towson, MD
48,051
4.2%
4.5%

26 Kansas City, MO-KS
47,371
3.2%
5.6%

27 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA
44,273
3.2%
7.5%

28 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
41,670
3.6%
4.2%

29 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
41,314
4.6%
4.8%

30 Columbus, OH
37,506
4.9%
4.8%

31 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
36,169
2.8%
3.9%

32 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
34,010
5.6%
3.9%

33 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
33,452
5.2%
6.4%

34 Nashville-Davidson—Murfreesboro—Franklin, TN
32,205
6.0%
4.8%

35 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
30,018
4.1%
5.2%

36 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
29,180
2.7%
4.6%


Using this metric, the largest cities without any service to London are:

SJC
STL
PIT
CVG
IND
MCI
PDX
CLE
BDL
BNA
ORF

I omitted Bridgeport/Stamford, PVD, and JFK, BOS, and LAX respectively. I would have omitted SJC for the same reason, but ANA serves both SFO and SJC.


The largest cities without year round service to Europe:

SJC
STL
*PIT
IND
MCI
CLE
BDL
BNA
ORF

* Pittsburgh served seasonally 5x weekly.

Again, Bridgeport/Stamford, PVD, and FLYi
 
PITrules
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 6:08 am

Edit function disappeared during editing...

Quoting PITrules (Reply 112):
I omitted Bridgeport/Stamford, PVD, and JFK, BOS, and LAX respectively. I would have omitted SJC for the same reason, but ANA serves both SFO and SJC.

was supposed to read:

"I omitted Bridgeport/Stamford, PVD, and ONT because they are within relatively easy driving distance from JFK, BOS, and LAX respectively. I would have omitted SJC for the same reason, but ANA serves both SFO and SJC."
FLYi
 
Cubsrule
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 1:49 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 111):
But there are countless instances where it is far from clear who deserves credit for what. So I chose to follow the CSA-included metropolitan areas with the exception of RDU and BDL.

Knope, you know (I hope) that I appreciate all of the data you bring to the site, but this doesn't seem very analytically rigorous to me. Isn't it basically "I added Springfield and Durham because I didn't like how the data looked without them?"
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
uberflieger
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 2:58 pm

Quoting PITrules (Reply 112):
metro areas based on number of local employees working for foreign businesses

Thanks for posting the Brookings Institute report   
Couple of thoughts on that. I was surprised how low Austin ranks, and could see AA/BA running a 757 PIT-LHR. The report also makes a convincing case for DTW.
 
tparamp
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:03 pm

I could maybe see PDX but CMH seriously. What about MSY or DTW?
 
uberflieger
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:48 pm

Quoting TPAramp (Reply 116):
What about MSY or DTW?

DTW is a Delta power house, but AA/BA offer something Delta doesn't. A convenient early morning departure to LHR via ORD. Combine that with 1 nonstop evening departure, possibly on a BA 787 and you out-fly the top dog. At least to the London area.  
 
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knope2001
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 5:19 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 114):
Knope, you know (I hope) that I appreciate all of the data you bring to the site, but this doesn't seem very analytically rigorous to me. Isn't it basically "I added Springfield and Durham because I didn't like how the data looked without them?"


Not because I didn't "like" how the data came out, but because it didn't pass the test of reasonable outcome. Without Durham, the Raleigh CSA in 2001 had a smaller GDP than Grand Rapids CSA, and even with comparably high growth by 2012 Raleigh still barely surpasses Birmingham in GDP. That would stick out like a sore thumb as to how RDU can be such a comparably high-traffic airport with transatlantic nonstop service, and the obvious answer is that Durham is missing. Like I said in my previous response I originally wasn't going to include RDU and BDL in the list for this very issue. But their omissions seemed significant so I made the judgment call to include RDU to equal Raleigh and Durham CSA's, and BDL to equal Hartford and Springfield CSA's.

So why draw the line there and not append other metro areas not part of the official CSA to other cities like Nashville? Well, unless I'm mistaken none of the other airports in the list are commonly referred to with a destination outside of the CSA. Although Toledo spills most of its traffic to Detroit (and at 28,311 Toledo metro is not an inconsequential GDP) the Detroit airport is never referred to as Detroit-Toledo, nor is the region ever referred with that name. Raleigh/Durham and Hartford/Springfield are a part of airport vernacular as Tampa/St Pete and Dallas/Fort Worth, That's not the case for things like Indianapolis/Bloomington or Kansas City/Topeka, etc. Clarksville and Bowling Green (KY) do likely send the huge majority of their traffic to BNA. However all of these airports have service areas well beyond the official CSA they are contained in, including nearby metro areas not designated in the CSA. These are imperfect markers of demand but I don't think the judgment call I made was fatal.

Should you or anyone else be interested:

Hartford CSA (no Springfield)
93,891 +38.6%
Raleigh CSA (no Durham)
61,392 +72.5%


Unfortunately it's this very sort of quibble that often leads me to regret posting stuff. The amount of time spent compiling information is worth it to me because it gives me information...and information I'm interested in which is why I do it in the first place. But I frequently end up spending a lot of time in replies and responses. Like I said in the original post I knew this thread would be a minefield and I should have stayed out. But I thought relatively factual information like this posted with the caveat that it is imperfect would be relatively safe. So it goes.
 
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knope2001
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 5:40 pm

One more coda. As I was looking at how far apart Raleigh and Durham are from RDU and Hartford and Springfield are from BDL, I noticed I'm mistaken about RDU. Raleigh's CSA is combined with Durham's. I think that's a relatively recent development, but at any rate the current CSA definition includes both. I must have missed that as I looked each one up to find the components. So that only leaves Hartford and Springfield as the judgment call.

I don't know what specific criteria leads Hartford and Springfield to not be linked into the same CSA -- their downtowns are only about 25 miles apart and their suburbs are closer than that. But for whatever reason they are not a single CSA and so including Springfield into BDL is a deviation from using the CSA of the first city listed.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Sun Jun 22, 2014 7:30 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 118):
Unfortunately it's this very sort of quibble that often leads me to regret posting stuff. The amount of time spent compiling information is worth it to me because it gives me information...and information I'm interested in which is why I do it in the first place.

Knope, it's not my goal to quibble. What I'm wondering more or less is whether we can make a uniform rule that quantifies your intuition about Springfield (and Durham for the years that it was a problem). Perhaps the rule would be something like "add in a MSA if it is more than X miles closer to the airport than to the next closest airport with commercial service."

I think in the course of a discussion about domestic service, Springfield, Clarksville, Salem (PDX) and Columbus (IND) should always be added. I could see arguments about adding a few more like Sarasota (TPA) or Dayton (CMH/CVG) for a discussion about international service, though a rule of the sort I've discussed above would not capture them. But at the same time, adding Austin (SAT) or Richmond (ORF) is probably always inappropriate.

Does this approach make sense to you? If so, what do you think a sensible rule would be? I think the census data are extremely valuable (and some other area definitions, like TV markets, often lack the sort of good economic the census give us). That said, we seem to agree that at least a bit of processing of the census data is required.
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knope2001
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:00 am

Let me circle back and explain a little bit about how the definitions work and it might be a little clearer. This might be stuff you already know but in case not...and perhaps others might not either.


Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
Region anchored by an urban area of 50,000 or more. Includes at least the county containing the core city but may include additional counties.

Micropolitain Statistical Area
Similar to an MSA but the core urban area is smaller -- usually 20,000-50,000. Again the "area" is the entire county.

Combined Statistical Area (CSA)
A primary MSA plus adjacent Metropolitan and/or Micropolitan areas defined by the census bureau to be functionally part of the primary metro.

The CSA was devised decades ago to reflect when separate entities grow together and largely function as one. The Dallas area is a good example. Both Dallas and Fort Worth are MSA's, and when they grew together enough to essentially function as one big metro area the Census Bureau did not strip Fort Worth of its MSA identity and roll it into the Dallas MSA. It created the Dallas CSA which is anchored by the Dallas MSA but includes some adjacent Metropolitan and Micropolitan entities including the Fort Worth MSA.

Simply being adjacent, however, does not mean two areas will be combined. There are markers of interaction and economic function (including things like commuting patterns) which the bureau uses to decide when a rural county should be added to an MSA and when adjacent metro or micro areas should be combined as part of a CSA.

I'll use an example I'm most familiar with to illustrate...the Milwaukee CSA. It is comprised of these elements

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis MSA
The primary MSA...Milwaukee and its suburban counties

Racine MSA
An adjacent MSA with ample economic interaction with Milwaukee MSA

Whitewater, Beaver Dam, Watertown Micropolitan Areas -- adjacent Micropolitan areas with ample economic interaction with the Milwaukee MSA

As I mentioned earlier, the website with the GDP information only lists it for Metropolitan areas -- none for Micropolitan ones.. So Milwaukee's number is missing the GDP from the counties in those three micropolitan areas (total population about 275,000.) Many CSA's have one or more Micropolitan areas as part of the CSA and those numbers are missing. By virtue of being "Microeconomic" areas none are especially large in GDP but they are not zero.

Once one gets beyond these officially-designated CSA's it gets especially difficult to know who to give credit to what -- it would be one judgment call after another. Going back to the Milwaukee service area, there are two more metro areas to the north adjacent to the official Milwaukee CSA, Sheboygan and Fond du Lac. They both send the large bulk their air traffic to MKE but because the census bureau doesn't see ample economic interaction to roll them into the Milwaukee CSA they don't meet the "CSA" definition. The next adjacent entities north have no air service (Oshkosh and Manitowoc) and still probably send the majority of their air traffic to MKE but significant amounts use ATW and GRB -- there's no way to know how much. Going the other direction a mere 19 miles straight south of MKE is the start of the Chicago CSA. The MKE airport draws significant traffic from the northernmost counties of metro Chicago but there's no way to try to reconcile how much credit the MKE market should get.

Can you see what a slippery slope it is to try to create one's own definition? That's why I stuck with the official CSA. If it helps you sleep better at night ignore the one deviation I chose to made by including Springfield as part of the Hartford/Springfield metro. Just use the numbers I posted for the official Hartford CSA alone. I can't say I always completely understand or agree with every inclusion/exclusion decision the bureau makes, but I don't have access to the data they do. They have not chosen to roll Clarksville into Nashville's CSA even though the southeastern boarder of the Clarksville MSA is adjacent to the farthest northwest suburban Nashville county. Apparently it's because Clarksville's function is more about Clarksville and is not feeding off of metro Nashville. I don't doubt that Clarksville's air traffic nearly all uses BNA, but to make a reasonable comparison then every other metro area listed would need to be evaluated to determine what other entities should be rolled into their numbers. Adding Clarksville and Bowling Green would push Nashville's GDP number to 111,660, but many peers would rise as well. Even trying to put some sort of distance radius around an airport is just too messy to be useful. One can't simply say something like 150 miles is a reasonable catch basin because it depends very much on what other options also exist. Out west a metro area with little or no air service of its own 150 miles probably deserves includes. In other parts of the country an airport 150 miles away might be the 3rd or 4th closest commercial airport with significant service. There's just no good way to account for the true hinterland which feeds an airport. With the CSA definition at least it's something which was constructed based on (apparently) consistent, quantified criteria.


To help give more definition to what is included in the GDP number, here are the Metropolitan Areas included in the CSA. This may help clarify some questions...Portland does include Salem, Kansas City does include St Joe, Indy does include Columbus and Muncie, etc.

gdp.......chg 2001-2012......metro area
282741 ….. 63.6% ….. Seattle/Tacoma CSA (includes Olympia MSA, Bremerton MSA, Mt Vernon MSA)
243551 ….. 14.0% ….. Detroit CSA (includes Flint MSA, Ann Arbor MSA, Monroe MSA)
228301 ….. 50.8% ….. Minneapolis/St Paul CSA (includes St Cloud MSA)
201653 ….. 57.2% ….. Phoenix MSA
196187 ….. 50.8% ….. Denver CSA (includes Boulder MSA, Greeley MSA)
177410 ….. 55.0% ….. San Diego MSA
171124 ….. 83.3% ….. Portland CSA (includes Salem MSA, Albany MSA, Longview MSA, Corvallis MSA)
155107 ….. 32.3% ….. Cleveland CSA (includes Akron MSA, Canton MSA(
137189 ….. 67.8% ….. Charlotte CSA
136677 ….. 37.9% ….. St Louis CSA
127111 ….. 44.5% ….. Pittsburgh CSA (includes Weirton/Steubenville MSA)
124544 ….. 48.7% ….. Indianapolis CSA (includes Columbus MSA, Muncie MSA)
122023 ….. 46.3% ….. Kansas City CSA (includes St Joseph MSA, Lawrence MSA)
119926 ….. 54.8% ….. Tampa MSA
119611 ….. 59.0% ….. Orlando CSA (includes Deltona/Daytona MSA, The Villages MSA)
116002 ….. 38.2% ….. Hartford CSA (includes Norwich MSA) also Springfield CSA added
111247 ….. 78.3% ….. Salt Lake City CSA (includes Provo MSA, Ogden MSA)
108236 ….. 39.7% ….. Cincinnati CSA
101123 ….. 78.6% ….. Raleigh CSA (includes Durham MSA)
100512 ….. 39.5% ….. Columbus CSA
98677 ..….. 89.8% ….. Austin MSA
97576 ..….. 41.3% ….. Milwaukee CSA (includes Racine MSA)
97558 ..….. 53.4% ….. Sacramento CSA (includes Yuba City MSA)
95602 ..….. 69.5% ….. Las Vegas CSA
94789 ..….. 67.3% ….. Nashville CSA
91995 ..….. 78.6% ….. San Antonio MSA
88554 ..….. 65.4% ….. New Orleans CSA (includes Hammond MSA)
84836 ..….. 62.1% ….. Norfolk CSA
69016 ..….. 46.4% ….. Louisville CSA (includes Elizabethtown MSA)
68640 ..….. 30.9% ….. Greensboro CSA (includes Winston-Salem MSA, Burlington MSA)
68612 ..….. 47.0% ….. Richmond MSA
66778 ..….. 38.8% ….. Memphis CSA
63338 ..….. 71.2% ….. Oklahoma City CSA
62251 ..….. 55.9% ….. Jacksonville CSA

Anything which just says MSA has no adjacent areas rolled into their official top-level definition.
Anything which says CSA has one or more adjacent Metro or Micro areas rolled into their core MSA. But remember because there is no GDP info on Micropolitan areas those are not included here.
 
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RWA380
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Mon Jun 23, 2014 10:45 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 121):
171124 ….. 83.3% ….. Portland CSA (includes Salem MSA, Albany MSA, Longview MSA, Corvallis MSA

'

With what you posted here, I can relate to your information, as I have an intimate knowledge of this area, so it helps me understand more easily how to read the rest of the cities you listed and understand the figures.

Thank you for taking the time you did with your informational posts, as well as the time you took to explain it all to those of us who got degrees in different fields, statistics was a hard class for me.   
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hjulicher
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Mon Jun 23, 2014 11:45 am

Knope -

You did a good job collecting the data and I want to thank you for being an active participant on this board.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 107):
So here are the GDP's of 35 select metro areas for 2012 and the change since 2001

I believe that since there is a bit of trickery to matching the CSAs with the corresponding GDP values, it may be more helpful to see the CAGR for GDP for each metropolitan area rather than the change in GDP between 2001 and 2012. I think it would also makes sense then to compare that figure to the CSA population. The two are correlated because more people equates to usually more GDP. Here's the reason why I'd do it this way...

If area XXX grows from 500,000 inhabitants to 1,000,000, over 10 years then you have 7.18% CAGR for population.
If area XXX grows from 1,000,000 USD GDP to 1,500,000 over the same period, then you have a 4.14% CAGR for GDP.

CAGR - compounded annual growth rate

In this case, you would be able to extrapolate that since the CAGR for GDP was lower than for population, that there was no growth at all on a per capita basis which is the metric that makes most sense.

Many cities in the Sunbelt and West have been growing very quickly, and thus their GDP also looks to be significantly higher than in the Rustbelt and Northeast, but on a per capita basis, it may not be such monumental growth as as indicated.
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Cubsrule
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:41 pm

Quoting hjulicher (Reply 123):
Many cities in the Sunbelt and West have been growing very quickly, and thus their GDP also looks to be significantly higher than in the Rustbelt and Northeast, but on a per capita basis, it may not be such monumental growth as as indicated.

Your point isn't clear to me. Isn't population growth relevant to demand growth just like per capita GDP growth is? If so, it seems that a number that combines both would be illuminative.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 121):
There are markers of interaction and economic function (including things like commuting patterns) which the bureau uses to decide when a rural county should be added to an MSA and when adjacent metro or micro areas should be combined as part of a CSA.

The trouble is that these markers of interaction are valid and useful for purposes of much (all?) of what the Census Bureau does, but they aren't so helpful for air service. If a "self-contained" MSA lacks air service, it is probably going to use the airport in the nearby CSA just as much as if it is rolled into that CSA, won't it? It seems to me that we could, given enough time, do things like adding Clarksville to Nashville on the grounds that it's a better comparison with Orlando/Daytona. Otherwise, aren't we "punishing" outlying MSAs for their economic independence, which is an odd result?
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GRUIAD
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:30 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 121):

Can you add Carlsbad / San Marcos to the San Diego MSA figure?
 
incitatus
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:31 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 121):
This might be stuff you already know but in case not...and perhaps others might not either.

That was a great summary of how the Census Bureau aggregates economic areas. It also highlights that using the data for a particular purpose - for example, create metrics related to air travel - one has to make some adjustments to the data aggregation.
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:26 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 4):
Delta might have some new motivation to find a LHR slot......BA could make SLC work for sure

DL applied for SLC-LGW in the mid 90s, but of the two spots available, both were given to AA.....via BNA and RDU.....the BNA by rather nefarious means.
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MSYtristar
Posts: 7543
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RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:15 am

I thought this article and chart might be relevant to the discussion...

http://www.anna.aero/2014/06/25/new-...m=0_ecdbf41674-d679b429b8-86887533

 
point2point
Posts: 2093
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:54 pm

RE: BA Lookng At PDX, CMH, SLC And CLT

Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:34 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 128):

I'd be curious to know the metrics used to determine these. I would think that this is probably based on ticket sales, (which can easily track such pax) then I would think that SJC is grossly, grossly understated. Most would probably just drive up to SFO rather than make a connect - say someone in San Jose would take an AA flight and go e.g. SJC-ORD-LHR (if such a connect existed) or numerous other ways, rather than just drive up to SFO, and this is how they get counted? SJC numbers seem grossly understated, while SFO numbersfor this are increased somewhat.

Otherwise, most of the other numbers seem in check.....

 

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