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EK413
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:31 am

Due to the length, Part 67 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in Part 67.

Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 67 (by EK413 Jun 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

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EK413
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NAV30
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:49 am

{Re-posted from 'last post' on the previous thread):-

Astonishing number of press stories (initially sourced to Perth's Curtin University) suggesting that MH370 may have gone down way to the north-west, south-east of India (near the Maldives?).

https://www.google.com.au/#q=mh370+crashed+near+India

[Edited 2014-06-25 20:51:52]
 
tailskid
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 4:22 am

(If Nav30 brings his, I'll bring mine too)


Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 205):
I have no idea what you're referring to.

Then go here http://www.dca.gov.my/mainpage.html and you can download the "data Communication Logs."

This is the information on all the data exchanges between 9M-MRO and the Inmarsat system.

It begins with the March 7th 16:00:13.4 login to Inmarsat as power was brought up to the aircraft.

It ends on page 41 when it logs the last response from the A/C - March 8th, at 00:19:37.443
There was an R channel transmit from the A/C which was acknowledged, this exchange provided BFO and BTO data. The BTO data was used to calculate the last "ping ring", the BFO data is what indicates that the plane may have been descending.

Note that the prior eight exchanges were:
2:29 - This is the exchange which provided the BTO data to construct the first ping ring
2:39 - Ground Initiated to Air Telephony Call - Zero Duration (Not Answered) (This reset the Inmarsat one hour timer but created no data to make a ping ring for this time)
3:41 - (19:41) Handshake Request, with response (INMARSAT ping) BFO data may be questionable.
4:41 - (20:41) Handshake Request, with response (INMARSAT ping)
5.41 - (21:41) Handshake Request, with response (INMARSAT ping)
6:41 - (22:41) Handshake Request, with response (INMARSAT ping)
7:13 - (23:13) Ground Initiated to Air Telephony Call - Zero Duration (Not Answered) (this again reset the one hour timer.
8:10:58 - (01:10) Handshake Request, with response (INMARSAT ping) (the 40 Degree position line)

Note that there was no other communication between the aircraft and the satellite during the last 8 hours of flight.
The communications you speak of never happened.

Possibly you have given too much attention to the debates with NAV30 about whether ot not there was such a thing as the Inmarsat pings and as a result have missed out on the actual satellite information.

I have noticed that this forum is kind of behind on the Inmarsat stuff.
 
NAV30
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 4:41 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 2):
(If Nav30 brings his, I'll bring mine too)

Fair enough, tailskid.  

Inmarsat usually publishes a complete map showing all the 'pings.' I haven't seen one in this case - all I've seen is a map showing MH370 heading south-west, and then north-west (as indicated by Malaysian military radar) - and then a 'spray' of white lines heading south.

The white lines alone appear to prove nothing. If you have a copy of a proper map showing the 'southbound' pings, please post it?
 
LovesCoffee
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:21 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 201):
Plausible? Did you mean preposterous? Plausible only if intentional.

Preposterous only if you ignore all options other than intentional.   

None of us knows how the aircraft went down or where it is yet. And the way the search is going, some of us may not have the life span to see the conclusion.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
LovesCoffee
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 6:12 am

New from CNN, link here.

Quote:
"The search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is moving to an area farther south in the southern Indian Ocean, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss said Thursday."
"Truss said it was "highly, highly likely" that the plane was on autopilot when it flew into the southern Indian Ocean."

The last quote was the most interesting as it would seem to preclude a controlled ditching or hand flown crash. Maybe, as Pihero said, an autopilot controlled descent of 100 fpm. Not, repeat not, definite but a possibility.

[Edited 2014-06-25 23:17:25]
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
Backseater
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 6:31 am

What we can learn from the Australians discarding the Malaysian altitude measurements?

IMr. Houston and Mr. Dolan, the chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, agree that there’s nothing reliable about a primary radar altitude readings, unless that radar is regularly and carefully calibrated to local atmospheric conditions.

If I read between the lines, they are implying that the radar that may have seen the turn back near IGARI was far away. The radar must have seen the a/c at a very shallow angle (0 to 1 deg) in which case refractivity is useful to extend the radar range beyond the optical horizon but it also may cause large errors in altitude measurements (several thousand feet) as the index of refraction of electromagnetic waves in the troposphere varies with temperature, pressure, and water vapor content.

I would therefore assume that the radar involved was not on the East coast but probably on the West coast of Malaysia. For Butterworth AB or Pulau Pinang the distance to the turn back would be at least 210nm. The altitude measurements would of course be much worse for a (mobile) radar such as the GM 400 at essentially sea level on or near Butterworrth AB than for the likely RAT 31-DL/FADR under its radome on Pulau Pinang at an elevation of about 2,700ft. That is why I have proposed before that one or two radars may have been involved that evening, with the first or only one physically on or near Butterworth AB.

I would hope that the Australians being one member of the 5 nation FPDA headquartered at Butterworth AB should have no problem getting access to the radar data. So it is important IMO to watch carefully for any statement they make regarding such secretive data.
 
rj777
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 6:32 am

What I would like to know is........ if they're so sure that it's in the Southern Indian Ocean....... why haven't they started looking around Antarctica? It's been almost 4 months! Maybe some debris has washed up there!
 
Backseater
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 6:47 am

What does a Selex RAT 31-DL/FADR looks like, if one is indeed on Pulau Pinang?

RAT 31-DL is a Class1 NATO radar. State of the art. Without a radome, here is another fixed RAT 31-DL but not in Malaysia of course:

http://i.imgur.com/XVBkhFu.jpg
 
sipadan
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 6:53 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 4):
Preposterous only if you ignore all options other than intentional.

Not ignore, just rule out, with the highest confidence. If one cares to leave bias at the doorstep, and examine the totality of ALL the evidence, then the conclusion is little more than a formality. I'm 100% percent sure that this was Zaharie (you are free to feel my confidence level preposterous)

[quote=LovesCoffee,reply=4]None of us knows how the aircraft went down or where it is yet. And the way the search is going, some of us may not have the life span to see the conclusion.

I disagree. This isn't really the great, big mystery we pretend it to be. We know the what. We have a very good idea as to the why (although some of us will not accept ANY explanation or evidence in this regard). We also have a fairly clear picture as to the how, though many loose ends remain.

So we are left with the real mystery, the where? And if these collective brain trusts are correct, we also generally know the answer to this. That said, this is the least convincing evidence we have in some respects, and I rule out nothing.

We also have a govt. that is neither interested in transparency nor finding the a/c. This opens up the possibility for a more complex and sordid tale (as if it wasn't sordid enough).

For example, there is this:

Quoting tailskid (Reply 2):
2:39 - Ground Initiated to Air Telephony Call - Zero Duration (Not Answered) (This reset the Inmarsat one hour timer but created no data to make a ping ring for this time)

Does anyone know if, aside from the 23:13 call, the investigation has confirmed that no other attempts were made to contact MH370, specifically between 17:35-40 and 18:25, when SATCOM was disabled? Has MH confirmed this?

Here again is Mr. Hussein, in response to the query of "Did ATC try to contact MH370 that morning?" Hussein, "I'm sure they did". He then says he cannot provide the time of the attempted contact, and further backtracks by saying that he cannot confirm or deny such detailed information.

Who knows the truth, but if we believe the possible reason for his evasiveness is to not want to cop to incompetence on behalf of his ministry, then we must believe that KL never tried, even once, in all those hours, to make contact.

Whether SOP or not, it certainly seems odd. And if they had tried to contact MH370, then surely a "yes" would have been appropriate and innocuous, or so it would seem.

[Edited 2014-06-26 00:01:14]
 
LovesCoffee
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:24 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 9):
We have a very good idea as to the why (although some of us will not accept ANY explanation or evidence in this regard).

I disagree. There are a few people who have 'locked in' on a single cause, which is also the easiest to explain with either no or limited knowledge of piloting large aircraft or large aircraft systems. This doesn't make that scenario wrong or impossible (pilot suicides have happened), it's just one off many scenarios at this time. Several other scenarios are still alive and well, all the way from mechanical failure/smoke/fire to hijacked to crashed after ATC sign off (least likely). Personally, the fire/smoke with 100 fpm descent autopilot controlled ditching intrigues me - at least for the moment. Hopefully, time will tell what happened beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 9):
We also have a govt. that is neither interested in transparency nor finding the a/c

Seems like if it was the pilot who done it, the government would be extremely interested in finding the A/C. This is just what they want.

[Edited 2014-06-26 00:27:24]
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YoungMans
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:09 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 7):

What I would like to know is........ if they're so sure that it's in the Southern Indian Ocean....... why haven't they started looking around Antarctica? It's been almost 4 months! Maybe some debris has washed up there!

The most likely places on that side of Antarctica are the Australian stations Casey, Davis and Mawson. Having wintered four times at Davis and twice at Casey, I can assure you that no debris from any crashed aircraft would ever make it to shore in those regions.

Circumpolar currents, prevailing wind directions, refreezing sea ice and huge pack ice fields from early March onward (if not all year round) would simply not allow that to happen.

As mentioned before in a different thread, if 9M-RMO did go down in more southerly parts of the Indian Ocean, one place where something might possibly wash up is Macquarie Island.

Go to http://www.antarctica.gov.au/ and click on any of the Antarctic stations and Macquarie Island to get an impression of what the coast lines down there are really like.

And don't forget, at this time of year there are only a few hundred people in all of Anatrctica.

[Edited 2014-06-26 01:18:29]
 
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Finn350
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:31 am

The new underwater search area and analysis has been made public by the ATSB.

Selected quotes from the full report:

Quote:
Three factors were important in defining the search area along the 7th arc:
* The position of the turn to the South from the previous North-West heading along the Malacca Strait
* Aircraft performance limitations
* Analysis of the satellite-communications data
There was uncertainty associated with each of these factors

The last primary radar return related to MH370 was at 1822 – this was the final positive fix for the aircraft. At this tim the aircraft was tracking north-west along the Malacca Strait. BFO data associated with the satellite arc at 1825 indicated that it was likely that the aircraft was still tracking north-west at this time. However, by the time of the 1941 arc, the BFO data indicated that the aircraft was tracking in a south/south-easterly direction.

Altitude, airspeed (Mach number at normal cruising altitudes) and wind are important parameters in determining aircraft range and performance. At 1707, the last ACARS transmission from the aircraft provided the total weight of the fuel remaining on board. Between that time and 1822, while the aircraft was being tracked by primary radar, the aircraft’s speed and consequently fuel burn could be estimated

The aircraft satellite transmission associated with the 7th arc is assumed to have been triggered by power interruptions on board the aircraft caused by fuel exhaustion. The time of this transmission is consistent with the maximum flight times expected for MH370.

After the last recorded primary radar data, at 1822, the following were recorded at the ground station:
 1st handshake initiated by the aircraft 1825.27
 Unanswered ground to air telephone call 1839.52
 2nd handshake initiated by the ground station 1941.00
 3rd handshake initiated by the ground station 2041.02
 4th handshake initiated by the ground station 2141.24
 5th handshake initiated by the ground station 2241.19
 Unanswered ground to air telephone call 2313.58
 6th handshake initiated by the ground station 0010.58
 7th handshake initiated by the aircraft 0019.29
 Aircraft did not respond to log-on interrogation from the satellite earth ground station (failed handshake).


The full report confims that a power loss to the SATCOM unit was the most likely cause for 1825 and 0019 handshakes.

Quote:
1st and 7th handshakes

The 1825 and 0019 SATCOM handshakes were log-on requests initiated by the aircraft. A log-on request in the middle of a flight is not common and can occur for only a few reasons. These include a power interruption to the aircraft satellite data unit (SDU), a software failure, loss of critical systems providing input to the SDU or a loss of the link due to aircraft attitude. An analysis was performed which determined that the characteristics and timing of the logon requests were best matched as resulting from power interruption to the SDU.

Approximately 90 seconds after the 1825 log-on request, communications from the IFE (In Flight Entertainment) system on the aircraft were recorded in the SATCOM log. Similar messages would be expected after the 00:19 logon request, however none were received. This could indicate a complete loss of generated electrical power shortly after the 7th handshake.

Because the location of the 0019 arc is also consistent with estimates of the aircraft range calculated from the remaining fuel quantity provided by the last ACARS transmission, the 7th arc is the focus of the search area.

Using the satellite system information, specifically the location rings determined from the BTO and the current understanding of the cause of the 7th handshake (log-on request) as being related to the fuel exhaustion of the aircraft, the focus of the search area will be along the 00:19 arc. The distance from the arc will be discussed in the section on the search area width.
Quote:
The electrical system on the B777 supplies 115 V AC and 28 V DC power. The main power sources are a left integrated drive generator (IDG) and a right IDG, powered by the left and right engines respectively. An auxiliary power unit (APU) can supply power if either or both of the IDGs are unavailable. The SDU was powered by 115 V AC from the left AC bus which was normally supplied by the left IDG. If power from the left IDG was lost, then a bus tie breaker would close and power would be automatically transferred from the right AC bus. Similarly, if power was lost from the right AC bus, power would be automatically transferred from the left AC bus. This power switching is brief and the SDU was designed to ‘hold-up’ during such power interruptions. To experience a power interruption sufficiently long to generate a log on request, it was considered that a loss of both AC buses or, a disabling of the automatic switching, would be required.

Source: http://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370/mh370-d...on-of-underwater-search-areas.aspx
Full report: http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5243942...14-054_MH370_SearchAreasReport.pdf

[Edited 2014-06-26 01:47:53]
 
sipadan
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:50 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 10):
Quoting sipadan (Reply 9):
We also have a govt. that is neither interested in transparency nor finding the a/c

Seems like if it was the pilot who done it, the government would be extremely interested in finding the A/C. This is just what they want.

Here's my actual quote...not just the cherry picked portion that you then base your comment on. Context does matter.

[quote=sipadan,reply=9]We also have a govt. that is neither interested in transparency nor finding the a/c. This opens up the possibility for a more complex and sordid tale (as if it wasn't sordid enough).

Do you see where I say "this opens up the possibility..."

Anyways, what a baseless, lowest common denominator argument. And the one always resorted too by people who will never accept any finding of pilot culpability. They simply say as you have "the govt. wanted it so", no matter what the evidence. Wow.
 
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BaconButty
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:57 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 13):
And the one always resorted too by people who will never accept any finding of pilot culpability.

Straw man. I don't know that anyone involved in this discussion would "never accept any finding of pilot culpability". Just people who are keeping an open mind. Oh, and the ATSB report should be mandatory reading - absolutely fascinating stuff. Makes Duncan Steels mob look a little silly.

[Edited 2014-06-26 03:00:27]
Down with that sort of thing!
 
LovesCoffee
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:04 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 13):
Do you see where I say "this opens up the possibility..."

Maybe you would be willing to enlighten us all with your wisdom by expounding on this 'possibility'?

And pilots are sometimes at fault as they are only human. Notice the NTSB finding on the Asiana crash at SFO a year ago.

The key is an open mind, which makes labeling any other scenario but one's own personal one preposterous somewhat closed minded.

[Edited 2014-06-26 03:07:47]

[Edited 2014-06-26 03:08:21]
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sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:34 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 15):
Maybe you would be willing to enlighten us all with your wisdom by expounding on this 'possibility'?

If you can't see that the Malaysians are engaged in a campaign of deception and obfuscation, I really don't know what to tell you. Their behavior certainly suggests many possibilities. I suggest tilting your orientation to 'nefarious' and hypothesizing from that premise.

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 14):
Straw man. I don't know that anyone involved in this discussion would "never accept any finding of pilot culpability". Just people who are keeping an open mind. Oh, and the ATSB report should be mandatory reading - absolutely fascinating stuff. Makes Duncan Steels mob look a little silly.

Straw man. Mandatory reading done. Not sure what is so fascinating (please enlighten me). And as far as the DS mob, I share your opinion entirely. Those guys, almost to a man, believe this to be an accident. Foolish indeed.

Furthermore, to state that you don't know anyone involved in the discussion that would never accept a finding of pilot culpability suggests you haven't been following the thread as closely as you seem to think. I won't name names because the mods will erase the thread, but you need not look far.

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 15):
The key is an open mind, which makes labeling any other scenario but one's own personal one somewhat closed minded.

I can't help that I have concluded with absolute certainty that Zaharie is responsible, and that you cannot reach the same conclusion. Why be open-minded when there is nothing else plausible in the least to consider? What you seem to believe in the realm of possibility I reject entirely.

[Edited 2014-06-26 03:39:58]
 
PlaneInsomniac
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:01 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 3):
Fair enough, tailskid.

Inmarsat usually publishes a complete map showing all the 'pings.' I haven't seen one in this case - all I've seen is a map showing MH370 heading south-west, and then north-west (as indicated by Malaysian military radar) - and then a 'spray' of white lines heading south.

The white lines alone appear to prove nothing. If you have a copy of a proper map showing the 'southbound' pings, please post it?

NAV30, please just stop.

This is not even mildly entertaining anymore in a bizarre, alternate-reality kind of way - like the first 100 times or so.

Since nobody can possibly that stubbornly ignorant and at the same time insultingly demanding, it now seems that the main unsolved mystery here is why certain members have not been banned yet.

Post #1 and thread #68 is down the drain.
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:20 am

Interesting article here which raises a number of points. Among them, if there is a cockpit fire, the pilot(s) would be well advised to turn off as many electrical systems as they can (which could account for MH370 'going 'off net') and to climb as high as possible, thus starving the fire of oxygen (which could account for the possible climb to 45,000 feet).

Some quite good other relevant points made as well.

http://www.wired.com/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

PS crossed with your post, PlaneInsomniac. Do you happen to have a map of those pings handy?

[Edited 2014-06-26 04:24:43]
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:36 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 18):
Do you happen to have a map of those pings handy?

Such a map would have a bunch of distance circles drawn on it, since all you know is the distance.
Once it's refined to North or South, it would have a series of arcs.

Are you sure you haven't seen such maps?
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:37 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 18):
Do you happen to have a map of those pings handy?


Source:ATSB
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
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BaconButty
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:45 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 16):
Not sure what is so fascinating (please enlighten me).

Sorry, I made it sound like the ATSB report was relevant to my disagreement with you - should have put a carriage return in. It is fascinating since it gives new details on the process by which the search area has been narrowed. It makes Duncan Steels lot look silly in the sense that they have tried to portray those doing the analysis as bumbling idiots, desperately in need of their help. The account in the ATSB report paints a quite different picture. To be honest, the person I would love to read it is NAV30, it would be a great help to him.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:47 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 16):
If you can't see that the Malaysians are engaged in a campaign of deception and obfuscation, I really don't know what to tell you.

Actually, we agree on this point. If for no other reason than that I can't accept that any government could actually be as inept as they appear to be. I just don't think their deception rules out fire/smoke/hijack.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 16):
What you seem to believe in the realm of possibility I reject entirely.

Entirely within your rights as a member of this thread. That's what makes this a discussion.  smile 

[Edited 2014-06-26 04:50:59]
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NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 12:05 pm

Thanks for the 'pings', BuyantUkhaa.

How come the first two (perhaps the first three) are way to the north of where MH370 took off? Did MH370 really just fly for only about five hours?

[Edited 2014-06-26 05:08:57]
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:07 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 23):
How come the first two (perhaps the first three) are way to the north of where MH370 took off? Did MH370 really just fly for only about five hours?

The location of the yellow arrows is irrelevant, they just say which "ping ring" corresponds to which time stamp. At each of the times indicated, the aircraft could theoretically be anywhere on the corresponding ring. But then, of course, when taking the possible speeds into consideration, the potential number of paths is more limited - that is what those

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 3):
'spray' of white lines heading south.

are trying to establish.
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PlaneInsomniac
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:11 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 23):
Thanks for the 'pings', BuyantUkhaa.

How come the first two (perhaps the first three) are way to the north of where MH370 took off? Did MH370 really just fly for only about five hours?

[Edited 2014-06-26 05:08:57]

Because satellite doppler range estimates produce locations on the globe forming a 0-dimensional shape, just like the extent of your understanding, NAV30?

Also thanks for another link to another long-debunked 3-month-old article?

It is always fun to reiterate stuff here that was discussed in thousands of posts dozens of threads ago?

By the way, NAV30, I demand that you immediately produce a map proving your various, ever-changing theories, which are remote from reality?
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
PlaneInsomniac
Posts: 418
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:12 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 19):
Are you sure you haven't seen such maps?
Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 20):
Source:ATSB

Can't we all just please stop falling for that troll?
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1534
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:27 pm

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 24):
The location of the yellow arrows is irrelevant, they just say which "ping ring" corresponds to which time stamp. At each of the times indicated, the aircraft could theoretically be anywhere on the corresponding ring.

He already knows that. He has participated in many discussions of the ping rings. He knows all about the pings, the ping rings, the ping arcs, and what they all mean, and don't mean. He has already seen that map, and many other maps of the pings, ping rings, and ping arcs.  
 
PlaneInsomniac
Posts: 418
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:34 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:43 pm

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 24):
The location of the yellow arrows is irrelevant, they just say which "ping ring" corresponds to which time stamp. At each of the times indicated, the aircraft could theoretically be anywhere on the corresponding ring.

Again, please save your breath. NAV30 is clearly a troll and has started and re-started this exact same discussion dozens of times over multiple threads. This poster is best ignored.
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:46 pm

Fair go, fellers?  

Why on Earth did Inmarsat publish a track leading from somewhere in India (probably Calcutta?) to Western Australia, when the question was where did MH370 go after it took off from Kuala Lumpur?

Is it possible that they were tracking the wrong aeroplane?

You'll have (hopefully) to forgive me if I seem to be pushing too hard. I was professionally involved in investigating quite a few accidents; and we almost never got it 'right first time.' I already sense a lot of 'questionable' aspects to this investigation?

[Edited 2014-06-26 06:55:55]
 
PlaneInsomniac
Posts: 418
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:52 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 29):
Why on Earth did Inmarsat publish a track leading from somewhere in India (probably Calcutta?) to Western Australia, when the question was where did MH370 go after it took off from Kuala Lumpur?

They did not.

The problem is that you keep pretending to be mentally incapable of understanding the maps provided to you.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 29):
Is it possible that they were tracking the wrong aeroplane?

As discussed and explained to you 1000 times, no.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 29):
I was professionally involved in investigating quite a few accidents; and we almost never got it 'right first time.'


Name a single aviation accident you 'investigated'.

[Edited 2014-06-26 06:54:47]
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:55 pm

Both users NAV20 and NAV30 are a 66-75yo retiree living in Melbourne. NAV30, am I correct in assuming you are the reincarnation of NAV20?
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:58 pm

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 31):
NAV30, am I correct in assuming you are the reincarnation of NAV20?

Yes, BuyantUkhhaa - my computer got hacked.  
 
laddb
Posts: 220
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:05 pm

A quick look at Duncan Steel's search area vs this new ATSB search area and they don't seem anywhere near each other. The ATSB is going to focus in an area much farther north along the 7th ping. Any thoughts from those who have ready the full report. Did DS overestimate the groundspeed. (I admit I have not had time to read the ATSB report and DS's post does not offer any details on how the analysis was performed).
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:21 pm

Quoting laddb (Reply 33):
The ATSB is going to focus in an area much farther north along the 7th ping.

As far as I know, laddb, they're planning on looking even further SOUTH. Seems crazy to me, but that appears to be the situation:-

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/...9/mh370-search-moves-further-south
 
boacvc10
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:57 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 29):
Why on Earth did Inmarsat publish a track leading from somewhere in India (probably Calcutta?) to Western Australia, when the question was where did MH370 go after it took off from Kuala Lumpur?

Because the center of that cone (of all of the "ping rings") is actually an INMARSAT geosynchronous satellite at 64 degrees longitude over the equator, at approximately 22,300 miles. The satellite is not stationary by any means, it is flying at approximately (with N, S, E, W periodic motions) over the sub-satellite point of (64 deg. E, 0N/0S) with the same rotation velocity (at that altitude) as the Earth, with a certain perigee and apogee, and the Inmarsat BFO values were derived from the difference in the expected/actual signal parameters of the transmission carriers as calculated from the point of an aircraft that only was programmed for the pre-determined location of that satellite.
Up, up and Away!
 
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BaconButty
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:17 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 16):
If you can't see that the Malaysians are engaged in a campaign of deception and obfuscation, I really don't know what to tell you. Their behavior certainly suggests many possibilities.

A large part of the data leading to potentially locating the aircraft comes from their sovereign air defence capability. I would be amazed if they didn't obfuscate, even more so since said capability was evidently lacking.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 34):
As far as I know, laddb, they're planning on looking even further SOUTH. Seems crazy to me, but that appears to be the situation:-

Please read this - it's probably the first piece of well written, useful, official documentation to come out of this sorry saga
http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/release..._of_Sea_Floor_Wide_Area_Search.pdf
Page 25 - The section headed Analysis A - is the start of the section where they explain how the most probable crash site is derived - and the assumptions they use. You'll see paths - loads of 'em - in varying degrees of consistency with the satellite data. The interesting thing is, even when they change their assumptions the target area doesn't change that much.
Page 31 is interesting - they apply the same techniques to previous flights to see how close they got. Remarkably close, I would say. I feel a bit more hopeful about the search bearing fruit now.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 4:06 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 29):
Fair go, fellers?

Inmarsat didn't publish any tracks.

Inmarsat didn't track any airplane.

Inmarsat has no idea of 9M-MRO's flight path except for the general direction.

[Edited 2014-06-26 09:23:20]
 
PlaneInsomniac
Posts: 418
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:34 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 34):
As far as I know, laddb, they're planning on looking even further SOUTH. Seems crazy to me, but that appears to be the situation:-

They are shifting the search further south along that 7th arc - back to the original search area which they had already focused on before the probably misidentified presumed "underwater acoustic black box pings" had distracted the search effort.

Nothing mysterious or crazy about it.
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
WarrenPlatts
Posts: 517
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:42 pm

Well, the ATSB report gives pretty short shrift to possible waypoint paths. I found this to be interesting though:

Quote:
If using LNAV, the crew can enter new waypoints or change/delete existing waypoints. There is complete flexibility in the waypoints that can be entered, for example pilot-defined waypoints can be defined by the following methods:

* place/bearing/distance
* place bearing/place bearing
* along track
* latitude/longitude
* course intersection

The "along track" mode: Am I correct to assume that this tells the LNAV to keep following the same great circle track that it has been on?
 
laddb
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:06 pm

WP - How close is the new official search area to where you predicted the plane to be?

Looks like the official search area is quite far from Duncan Steel's group prediction, but I've not compared the two areas on the same map yet.
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 39):
The "along track" mode: Am I correct to assume that this tells the LNAV to keep following the same great circle track that it has been on?

Not sure exactly what you're asking. If you have a route AAA to BBB you can enter a point AAA/## or BBB/-## (note the minus sign) where the ## can't be any larger than the distance from AAA to BBB. It gives you a waypoint somewhere on your current path form AAA to BBB. So you can't take BBB/## extending your present track to BBB into oblivion.
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:59 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 2):
Note that there was no other communication between the aircraft and the satellite during the last 8 hours of flight.

   I can't agree more.

Quoting tailskid (Reply 2):
The communications you speak of never happened.

I think you're jumping on me for something I never said. Somebody in the last thread insinuated that a sudden yaw movement of the aircraft (such as might be experienced when one engine flamed out) would cause the satcom to attempt to re-establish the link, causing the 0:19 Z handshake after just one engine flamed out. I was saying it was implausible that yaw motion would cause this handshake, because the satcom unit receives a continuous stream of aircraft state data from the aircraft avionics. This stream has nothing to do with RF communications to the satellite. I hope that clears it up.

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 36):
Please read this - it's probably the first piece of well written, useful, official documentation to come out of this sorry saga

Good stuff. I was amazed how soon after the crash (10 days) they knew that it went south. Also this:

Quote:
by the time of the final SATCOM log on message, the autopilot could have been disengaged for approximately 3 minutes and 40 seconds and the aircraft would have been descending during that period.

Altogether a very nice report that for once upstages the buffoons in charge of the official investigation.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:24 pm

Some Australian investigators are publicly pointing to hypoxia as the likely culprit.

www.leehamnews.com/2014/06/26/odds-a...-point-to-pilot-misdeeds-and-more/

[Edited 2014-06-26 14:27:36]

Australians suspect aircraft was on autopilot before crash and announce new search area

www.atwonline.com/safety/new-search-...rcraft-believed-be-autopilot-crash

More questions about initial satellite contact by aircraft

www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/m...ver-initial-satcom-message-400804/


[Edited 2014-06-26 14:39:06]
What the...?
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:49 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 42):
Somebody in the last thread insinuated that a sudden yaw movement of the aircraft (such as might be experienced when one engine flamed out) would cause the satcom to attempt to re-establish the link, causing the 0:19 Z handshake after just one engine flamed out. I was saying it was implausible that yaw motion would cause this handshake, because the satcom unit receives a continuous stream of aircraft state data from the aircraft avionics.

What I said was that (assuming the airplane was being flown by the autopilot), with the loss of an engine the airplane would eventually go into a turn (with one engine dead and the other at full thrust to maintain airspeed the autopilot even with TAC could run out of authority to maintain present track) possibly causing the tail to blank out the satellite and lose signal -- especially at the edge of the satellite's range. I have flown a multitude of flights in an area with similar geometry and many times when we reversed course the SATCOM would lose signal and have to reconnect. The question for the SATCOM people is upon reaquiring a lost signal is a handshake made?
 
YoungMans
Posts: 432
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:31 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 28):
NAV30 is clearly a troll ....

...either that or else he is in a good home somewhere, reading and looking at all this with still a perfect understanding of 1940's and 50's technology. You get that .....
 
WarrenPlatts
Posts: 517
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:03 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:56 pm

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 39):
The "along track" mode: Am I correct to assume that this tells the LNAV to keep following the same great circle track that it has been on?


Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 41):
Not sure exactly what you're asking. If you have a route AAA to BBB you can enter a point AAA/## or BBB/-## (note the minus sign) where the ## can't be any larger than the distance from AAA to BBB. It gives you a waypoint somewhere on your current path form AAA to BBB. So you can't take BBB/## extending your present track to BBB into oblivion.

Thank you for the prompt reply, sir. This is interesting. I notice that the distance from POVUS to RUNUT is approximately 1200 nm. Thus, if he entered

POVUS
RUNUT-1200

then it would stay on the same GC track for another 1200 nm after passing RUNUT; then, after the "RUNUT -1200" waypoint, the LNAV would revert to either HDG or TRK mode, presumably following a magnetic heading or course.

Also, is there a limit to how far away a waypoint can be? E.g., could a pilot over the Indian Ocean select a waypoint in Argentina, for example?
 
WarrenPlatts
Posts: 517
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:03 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:12 pm

Quoting laddb (Reply 40):
WP - How close is the new official search area to where you predicted the plane to be?

Looks like the official search area is quite far from Duncan Steel's group prediction, but I've not compared the two areas on the same map yet.

It's a long ways away. Also, Duncan Steel group is a little to NE of me, but in roughly the same ballpark. Here is a picture that has an overlay of the various proposed crash sites:

http://i.imgur.com/1jcCekc.png

However, what I find really intriguing about the new report is the "Aircraft Performance Bound" from their figure 20, page 22:

http://i.imgur.com/dEPkHaa.png

This generates another line of position, that intersects the 7th arc only in two places. If we discount the northern one, we get a possible "fix" at about -38, 88.4; I must say this is right down stream from the DS crash sites. (Don't ask me why they have their proposed crash sites at the 24:11 LOP; seems to me more likely would be at or past the final ping ring.)

Personally, I don't trust the BFO stuff. They even admit that a 10 Hz or whatever error will throw off the position by 1,000 km. The BFO data puts the expected tracks smack in between where the two aircraft performance bounds cross the 7th arc--and then they take that as some sort of confirmation of their BFO analysis! I would say just the opposite: that the aircraft performance bound disconfirms the BFO stuff....
 
tailskid
Posts: 844
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:33 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 42):
I think you're jumping on me for something I never said.

I apologize for that. I jumped too soon at the troll stuff. You had it right.
 
tailskid
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Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:27 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68

Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:11 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 47):
Personally, I don't trust the BFO stuff.

I'm with you on that.

My prediction would be to look at the point where the A/C would be expected to run out of fuel on a southbound great circle course from POVUS. Whatever GC course would put that point on the seventh arc would be close to where I expect the plane to be found.

Once that point is determined, the searchers should then check to see if there is a very close course along a heading towards an obvious navigational landmark (even numbered compass heading, in line with a known waypoint or something similar.) If so, adjust the search to take that course into account, if not, then search where it should have run out of fuel.

I see the BTO as precise, but the BFO stuff as asking too much precision from too small a data sample.

For some reason "they" are unwilling to make the 17:07 fuel figure and/or the 17:21 - 18:22 radar track public, so those of us lacking that inside information can't really make a prediction.

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