Farnborough 2014 Potential Orders

a380heavy · Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:46 pm

With a little over 2 weeks to go I was wondering what orders you believe are likely/probable to occur during the show?

Also the likelihood of new aircraft being announced i.e. the A350 Regional, Boeing 757 true successor, A380 Regional and/or A380-900 or A330 NEO?

bunumuring · Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:09 am

Fingers crossed, fingers crossed, fingers crossed... Please Santa, I have been such a good boy this year ...

A Qantas Dreamliner 8 or 9 or 10 order?

Or Santa, I PROMISE to be a really good boy forever ...

A Qantas 777X order?

*** wake up, Geoff *** (apologies to the Wiggles - Australian a.netters should understand it!)

NOT going to happen. But should.

But seriously, could the 777X be renamed? 777X becomes the 797 to move it away from the MH370 / 777 association? That's what I would do. And attract more orders from the likes of Turkish, BA and AF-KLM?

And the A330neo gets launched as the A330matrix or whatever... With Delta and Air Asia in the vanguard of orders.

And the CSeries fails to gain any more traction in terms of orders, sadly...

Keep smiling,
Bunumuring.

[Edited 2014-06-27 17:17:09]

YYZatcboy · Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:15 am

How about a certain western Canadian airline ordering some widebodies. A330's from EK with EK picking up 330NEO's anyone??

Stitch · Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:57 am

Quoting A380Heavy (Thread starter):
With a little over 2 weeks to go I was wondering what orders you believe are likely/probable to occur during the show?

Many of us expect Emirates to firm their 777X commitment and perhaps also place a new order (be it for 777-300ERs or 787s).

There have also been rumors in the aviation and financial media that Singapore Airlines will place an order for the 777X in 2014 and Farnborough would be a logical place for them to do so.

Boeing's 747-8 Sales Team have been working some deals, but they admit that an announcement at Farnborough is unlikely.

Quoting A380Heavy (Thread starter):
Also the likelihood of new aircraft being announced i.e. the A350 Regional, Boeing 757 true successor, A380 Regional and/or A380-900 or A330 NEO?

Unlike the regional and domestic version of the A330-300, the A350 Regional is just an A350 with derated operating weights and engines and this has been available since the program launched. So it's not really a unique model, but just a marketing term.

Airbus has made no mention of offering an A380-800 Regional and, to be honest, the airframe is not designed for such a role so I do not believe we will see a specific model for regional and domestic operations like we have with the A330-300. Airbus has also made no mention of offering an A380-900 in the near future.

As for the neos, Airbus have stated the A330neo will not launch at Farnborough and an A380neo launch is likely years away.

I also believe Boeing is not ready to announce a 757 successor next month, either.

[Edited 2014-06-27 17:59:15]

phxa340 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:00 am

EK - Firming up 777X orders and additional 77W order
DL - 330NEO and 789 order
SIA - 777X order
Air Asia - 330neo order
Garuda - 777/330 order + 320/737
Saudi - 320 order
FR - 737 order (might be too early still)

Just my 2 cents.

bunumuring · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:26 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
FR - 737 order (might be too early still)

I had forgotten about that .... Things have gone quiet about it. Is it still considered to be a MAX shoe-in, and if so, for how many and which model? If its happening short term, Farnborough would be the obvious place to make the biggest media splash...
I believe Turkish will be in the market too for additional wide bodies.
Could Qatar order more A380s? Perhaps some Dreamliner 10s?
Alitalia? Is it too soon for Etihad's influence and investment to lead to new orders for them?
I predict a fascinating air show in terms of orders and announcements. Maybe not the abundance of orders seen last year at air shows, but fascinating in their scope and sequence.
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

ZKNCL · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:30 am

I personally believe we will see the next 777X orders influx from potential customers such as SQ. That combined with more A320/737 orders and we've pretty much covered it. Of course airlines like MH and GA could order some more 330's. I doubt we will see orders from carriers such as UA, AA, and QF. I don't believe we will see any 747-8/A380 orders for passenger aircraft.

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 1):
But seriously, could the 777X be renamed? 777X becomes the 797 to move it away from the MH370 / 777 association? That's what I would do. And attract more orders from the likes of Turkish, BA and AF-KLM?

And while we are at it lets rename the 737, 747, and 767 as I recall those also having fatal accidents. I highly doubt a new name will do any good for the aircraft, let alone its potential customers...

ZKNCL

mariner · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:30 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 1):
Fingers crossed, fingers crossed, fingers crossed... Please Santa, I have been such a good boy this year ...

A Qantas Dreamliner 8 or 9 or 10 order?

Or Santa, I PROMISE to be a really good boy forever ...

A Qantas 777X order?

*** wake up, Geoff *** (apologies to the Wiggles - Australian a.netters should understand it!)

NOT going to happen. But should.

Should? Oh, dear. I'd rather see a Qantas A350 order, but each to their own.

mariner

karadion · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:36 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Boeing's 747-8 Sales Team have been working some deals, but they admit that an announcement at Farnborough is unlikely.

Well those 748F (1501 / 1502) are going to be delivered soon so I wouldn't be surprised if the announcement is at Farnborough

bunumuring · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:36 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 7):
Should? Oh, dear. I'd rather see a Qantas A350 order, but each to their own

Hi mate,
Yes, just my avgeek opinion... And I think you will eventually get your wish ahead of mine re the 777X versus A350. However I guess we can both agree that QF needs to start ordering SOMETHING soon to be ready for the future... And unfortunately I doubt that Farnborough 2014 will be the place they do it...
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

phxa340 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:38 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 7):
Should? Oh, dear. I'd rather see a Qantas A350 order, but each to their own.

Not to derail this thread but I have thought the same. I always found the 787 a little too small for QF and the 777X a little too large. I know thats a gross generalization but just thought the A35J is the perfect aircraft for QF to better control yields.

I rate the chance of a 777X for QF close to zero for the immediate future.

bunumuring · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:48 am

Quoting ZKNCL (Reply 6):
And while we are at it lets rename the 737, 747, and 767 as I recall those also having fatal accidents. I highly doubt a new name will do any good for the aircraft, let alone its potential customers...

Well none of those have been in anything like the media glare as the MH370 777 has been in, for months now. Even my elderly parents know that MH370 was a Boeing 777 and have irrationally I believe asked me not to book them ever on 'one of those types of plane'. I of course defended the 777 but if people with no interest or knowledge of aviation say things like that, well I think it's justifiable on marketing terms alone. I remember how the DC-10 was tainted by the unfortunate crashes decades ago. Yes, it wasn't renamed then but did become the MD-11 in it's next generation. What is the difference in the DC-10 morphing into the MD-11 compared to the 777-200LR/777-300ER morphing into the 777X or 797?

Marketing. It reigns.

Cheers,
Bunumuring.

[Edited 2014-06-27 18:50:13]

[Edited 2014-06-27 18:51:02]

jfk777 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:04 am

Singapore 777-9 order as well as a Korean or Asiana 777-9 order.

trex8 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:07 am

Quoting Karadion (Reply 8):
Well those 748F (1501 / 1502) are going to be delivered soon so I wouldn't be surprised if the announcement is at Farnborough

Dont you mean their production will be complete soon, they may sit somewhere for a long time if there is no customer, and even if there is a customer they may not take delivery in the near future!

bunumuring · Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:09 am

Getting back on track ...
I believe that Air Astana must be looking after the comments reported in the 757 replacement thread.
I have a feeling that Garuda will order 777Xs as their VLA... And possibly A330neos.
Philippines had a stated interest in 777Xs...
Could LATAM be in the market yet for something bigger than the A350-900s on order? How about more 777Fs after their recent conversion of 2 x TAM 777-300ERs orders to 2 x 777Fs? Or even an additional order for Dreamliners?
South African was in the market for new wide bodies but that seems to have been dropped for the moment.
Is Southwest likely to top up any orders any time soon, be they for NGs or MAXs?
EVA Air? Don't they want to order Dreamliner 10s? Five, I seem to remember ...
Myanmar/Burma will be ordering some time in the future but Farnborough 2014 seems too soon ... Maybe Farnborough 2016?
And I guess that Farnborough 2016 is more likely for any Iranian orders ... And I predict large orders for various Iranian airlines in the medium term.
Could JAL surprise us all with a 777-9X order? And the JASDF order two 777-300ERs as the new Japanese 'Air Force One' - refer to the military forum for more information...
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

ZKNCL · Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:09 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 11):
Even my elderly parents know that MH370 was a Boeing 777 and have irrationally I believe asked me not to book them ever on 'one of those types of plane'. I of course defended the 777 but if people with no interest or knowledge of aviation say things like that, well I think it's justifiable on marketing terms alone.

You do raise quite a few good points, however, athough MH370 has tainted the public opinion of the aircraft I do believe it is right to retain the name. The average traveller can not tell the difference between a 777 and A330 so I doubt they will choose based on the aircraft type. Also since the 777X will come along in 2020, it gives it enough time for the brand to make a recovery. And yes, I agree that my elderly parents are also like that.

Regards,
ZKNCL

bunumuring · Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting ZKNCL (Reply 15):
You do raise quite a few good points, however, athough MH370 has tainted the public opinion of the aircraft I do believe it is right to retain the name. The average traveller can not tell the difference between a 777 and A330 so I doubt they will choose based on the aircraft type. Also since the 777X will come along in 2020, it gives it enough time for the brand to make a recovery. And yes, I agree that my elderly parents are also like that.

Hi mate,
Don't get me wrong, I want the 777X to stay a 777 and not become a 797, but I can see the logic in it. It's my business brain talking and not my heart... I want the 777X to continue as a 777 and to rack up incredible sales totals as a family.
And yes, elderly parents? Fun, aren't they! My father still moans about Qantas not flying the Siesta route anymore to London via Mexico City ...
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

rotating14 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:04 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 14):

The lone 77W VIP bird ordered last week or so might have in fact been the Japanese govt ordering a replacement for its 744. I've read that ET is also interested in the 777x, up to 10 frames. I believe that SAA placed a RFP and Airbus won it but I have yet to hear anything else about it.

MON · Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:12 am

Monarch finally for 60+ 320/737s or possibly C-series?

timboflier215 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:15 am

The 777X has already been renamed. To the 777 8 and 777 9.

As to the original question, could we see an IAG/BA 777 9 order? Further orders for the 787 10? HA finally bowing to the inevitable and switching their -800s to -900s/ A330neos?

KarelXWB · Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:59 am

Quoting A380Heavy (Thread starter):
A350 Regional

There's no such thing as an regional A350.

Quoting A380Heavy (Thread starter):
Boeing 757 true successor

Not gonna happen.

Quoting A380Heavy (Thread starter):
A380-900

Not gonna happen.

Quoting A380Heavy (Thread starter):
A330 NEO

Maybe, though Airbus has yet to receive board approval. The 777X got board approval in April 2013 followed by its public launch in November 2013. So the public A330neo launch could happen in early 2015, unless Airbus makes the announcement with a few early commitments.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
DL - 330NEO and 789 order

Not gonna happen at Farnborough. Delta said to make a decision by the end of the year, or early 2015.

by738 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting MON (Reply 18):
Monarch finally for 60+ 320/737s or possibly C-series?

I think this has "unofficially" been leaked that it will be announced at F. Likely to be an Airbus win.

VC10er · Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:37 am

I guess people just like to put the blame on the aircraft model vs human error or undetermined outcomes like MH370. Because every time I have tuned in (and especially in the first month) there were comments ALWAYS where the reporter said "the 777 is one of the most modern and safest planes in the world with a near perfect record until Asiana at SF and the 100% mystery of MH370!) geez just listen to Richard Quest scream on and on about it!!!

The one thing it does prove is how sticky the 777 brand is.

Does anyone see a LATAM order? Or are they set between LAN and TAM and their orders.

How about Azul and brand new ac? Is Azul a dedicated Airbus and Embraer company?

What will Boeing have as eye candy for the 777-9? Any mock ups?

Stitch · Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:57 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 17):
I believe that SAA placed a RFP and Airbus won it but I have yet to hear anything else about it.

SAA's Fleet Committee did indeed select the A350 over the 787 in August 2012 for the replacement of the A340-600 fleet, however the entire Board subsequently resigned that October when the South African Government (specifically, the Minister of Public Enterprises) blocked the planned purchase pending a review, forcing Airbus to reassign the delivery positions to other customers.

In 2013 SAA tendered another RFP, this time for the replacement of the entire A340 fleet, however the Minister of Public Enterprises forced them to withdraw that tender in early February of this year due to his desire to see local manufacturing offsets provided by the winning OEM.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 22):
Does anyone see a LATAM order? Or are they set between LAN and TAM and their orders.

Between TAM and LAN they have a large combined A320neo, A350 and 787 order so not sure they need any additional metal at the moment.

LifelinerOne · Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:44 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 17):
I believe that SAA placed a RFP and Airbus won it but I have yet to hear anything else about it.

SAA withdrew its RFP due to lack of funding for new aircraft and is expected to announce the lease of 20-25 new widebodies in October.

Cheers!

GIANCAVIA · Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:45 pm

Quoting MON (Reply 18):
Monarch finally for 60+ 320/737s or possibly C-series?

It sure wont be the 737.

JerseyFlyer · Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:37 pm

IB firming 787 / 350 reserved positions?

almehairiauh · Sat Jun 28, 2014 5:43 pm

Air Astana to order E2 aircrafts to replace it's E-Jet aircrafts

kurtverbose · Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:47 pm

Funny, last year Leahy talked of selling 30 A380's. He sold 50, but no similar prediction this year.

KarelXWB · Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:56 pm

Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 28):
but no similar prediction this year.

Actually he said the target is 30 A380s again.

[Edited 2014-06-28 12:56:58]

jfk777 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:03 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 17):
I believe that SAA placed a RFP and Airbus won it but I have yet to hear anything else about it.

Does Boeing have a prayer for the SAA order ? Doubtful. SAA flew all those 747 because it was the only Jumbo made. today both makers have 300 passenger 8,000 mile capabe twin wide-bodied jets. A350-900 & 1000 for SAA is this persons prediction for 20 planes.

Stitch · Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:14 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 30):
Does Boeing have a prayer for the SAA order?

While SAA management favor the A350, the decision appears to be in the hands of the South African Government, not SAA management.

So if Boeing is willing to meet the manufacturing offsets the government is demanding, it could be a 787 / 777X order.

sunrisevalley · Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:17 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 10):
Not to derail this thread but I have thought the same. I always found the 787 a little too small for QF and the 777X a little too large. I know thats a gross generalization but just thought the A35J is the perfect aircraft for QF to better control yields.

I rate the chance of a 777X for QF close to zero for the immediate future

On which city pairs would you expect QF to use additional ULH aircraft. Seems to me they have 12 A380 and 6 744ER that will fulfill that need for a number of years. The 787-10 would provide a useful increase in lift for any destination 13hrs from SYD /BNE

petertenthije · Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:20 pm

Might KLM announce their intended F70 replacement?

Wayfarer515 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:31 pm

Cityjet ordering the SSJ100?

Stitch · Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:43 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 32):
On which city pairs would you expect QF to use additional ULH aircraft. Seems to me they have 12 A380 and 6 744ER that will fulfill that need for a number of years.

We also have to take into account that Australian Aviation Authorities are quite conservative on ETOPS, so that could limit the flexibility of ULH operations on a twin.

DexSwart · Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:01 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
We also have to take into account that Australian Aviation Authorities are quite conservative on ETOPS, so that could limit the flexibility of ULH operations on a twin.

I honestly can't see QF ordering anything at the moment. I think it would be wise for them to optimise the fleet they have and get back in the black before making any commitments.

VA on the other hand...

As for the whole SAA issue, nothing will happen. They'll bring in a new CEO in a few weeks, say the entire fleet is losing money, bring forth possible replacements, then get a new CEO, withdraw their statements saying the fleet works fine.

Any chance of a new IAG order? To replace the oldest of the 734s and A32Xs?

Maybe a firmer commitment from Arik (apologies for not knowing the code)?

ET could very well order the 77X, maybe even KQ?

Of course, an EK commitment for an exuberant amount of VLA's that everyone will create 200 threads about.

Cheers

Devilfish · Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:57 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 14):
Philippines had a stated interest in 777Xs...

I fear it will remain an interest in the meantime. As it is, they'd also need to line up financing for the more urgent A359 requirement they also expressed an interest in (unless their preference has changed).

ER757 · Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:29 pm

BA orders some additional A380's? They're going to need more eventually IMO

karadion · Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:44 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 38):

BA orders some additional A380's? They're going to need more eventually IMO

Doubtful. BA has options already for the A380 with a ton of orders of the A350-1000 and 787's.

trex8 · Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:44 am

CIs narrow body replacement decision, potentially up to 30, is due this summer. Despite what some pundits say I am betting on the A321 neo beating out the 737 max to replace the 738.

copter808 · Sun Jun 29, 2014 2:08 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 1):
But seriously, could the 777X be renamed? 777X becomes the 797 to move it away from the MH370 / 777 association? That's what I would do. And attract more orders from the likes of Turkish, BA and AF-KLM?

I doubt very much that many are avoiding the 777 because of Malaysia's mismanagement of that caper! The few that will, will have long forgotten the incident by the time a renamed plane makes it's appearance.

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 11):
I remember how the DC-10 was tainted by the unfortunate crashes decades ago. Yes, it wasn't renamed then but did become the MD-11 in it's next generation. What is the difference in the DC-10 morphing into the MD-11 compared to the 777-200LR/777-300ER morphing into the 777X or 797?

The difference between the 777 and DC-10/MD-11 is that the 10 was built by Douglas aircraft co, where the MD-11 was built by the newly merged McDonnell-Douglas. The 777 has been in service for 19 years with only 2 or 3 known fatalities. Another airframe is missing (MH), but it's currently not known what happened to it. Assuming MH did in fact crash, that makes 2 fatal accidents in 19 years. That's a pretty good safety record to me!

lollomz · Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:14 am

Quoting Wayfarer515 (Reply 34):

This would be a great new!
I saw on Wikipedia that is reported PAL Express placed an order for the SSJ..... Any news about it???

IndianicWorld · Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:36 am

With QF finally retiring the 763's, unless it expects the 737 fleet to do more of the flying, which will be hard especially with limitations at SYD, they will need something appropriate to replace them with.

As a direct replacement, the A330's may well be hard to operate on the golden triangle routes (MEL/SYD/BNE), as QF had previously found, and the 788 may not also be ideal for such short but high cycle missions. It will be very hard to replace the 763 as a workhorse.

It may well just look at moving some of the A320 family orders that it has for JQ into the QF fleet, specifically for the A321NEO, which will have more capacity, but it is in a difficult situation really trying to find an aircraft to suit its network needs.

PHX787 · Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:58 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
DL - 330NEO and 789 order

I wouldn't bet on it yet. I know DL will order something but the only one of those two i see as solid is the 789.

Even though Anderson said no 77X i still can't see why they wouldn't order it for a 744 replacement.

Thunderboltdrgn · Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:06 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 44):
I wouldn't bet on it yet. I know DL will order something but the
only one of those two i see as solid is the 789

Well with the amount of talk and hints from DL regarding the A330neo I think that they are more
then just considering the A330neo.

81819 · Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:15 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 43):

These routes might transcend from a Golden Circle to a Platnium dog leg(I.e. BNE-SYD-PER)

I have a sneaking suspicion QF will be placing orders for the 787-10 at the show. Time will tell!

RickNRoll · Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:24 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 9):
Hi mate,
Yes, just my avgeek opinion... And I think you will eventually get your wish ahead of mine re the 777X versus A350. However I guess we can both agree that QF needs to start ordering SOMETHING soon to be ready for the future... And unfortunately I doubt that Farnborough 2014 will be the place they do it...
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

Can't see them needing an A380 and 777X. A350 would be a better gap filler. They won't be ordering anything, though.

Prost · Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:27 am

The earliest I've heard DL would order their widebodies is September. I think there is still some back and forth going on right now with Delta playing Airbus and aboeing off one another. As PHX787 indicates, the 789 seems to have the current favor, but that may just be a gentle nudge to Airbus to sharpen their pencils and come up with a better proposal.

Regarding Delta's replacement of the 744 with a smaller plane, I'm not certain that Delta wants anything much larger than 325-350 seats. I can see that the 773ER has a place in Delta's fleet, but with Mr. Anderson's comments that the 7810 and A35J are too large, I assume the 773ER is too large as well. When we see a gate full of people loading up a 744 to 95+% load factors on a flight we all assume 'success'. We just don't always know whether there were a significant number of consolidator fares on that flight. So Delta downsizing 744 flights to 789 or even 359 (I understand the 359 is larger than the 789) may provide more profits because there will be fewer junk fares offered. I think a confirmation of this is Delta is downgauging the JFK-TLV flight to a 777 from a 744. There is probably far too much premium seating and overall seating on the 744 versus the reconfigured 37J configured 777.

Prost · Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:31 am

Regarding Garuda's possible need for a VLA, I have a question. I see the need for Hadj flights, and possible VLA for important international flights, but is there a reasonable technology (palletized seating?) that is low weight/low cost so that an airline such as Garuda could have a standard configuration for a 779X, for example, and when it was time to use the aircraft for Hadj flights or other charters, they can move out their business and Y+ seatting and configure the aircraft in a pure economy? Is this even feasible?

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