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EK413
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:40 am

Due to the length, Part 68 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in Part 69.

Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 68 (by EK413 Jun 25 2014 in Civil Aviation)

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bluesky9
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Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:13 am

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 178):
Right...and to my point, it descended at roughly 9,700fpm!!! Not the 500fpm that was discussed between myself and bluesky9. If you are suggesting that an uncontrolled descent of a t7 from altitude would not exceed 500fpm, welcome to Mars.

I think he was only referring to AF447, not speculating about MH370 descent rate.

No I was discussing the average descent rate that MH370 would need to reconcile the 0019Z ping and the 0135Z acoustic event. The nub of the problem is that if there was a high energy impact of MH370 in the search area shortly after 0019Z then the hydrophones would have detected it, but they did not. They did however detect an event at 0135Z.

The data (for the 0135Z event) comes from multiple hydrophones, some are from hydrophones that are part of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO) and some are from the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS). The people analyzing the data are experts in their field. Here is a link to their report: https://cmst.curtin.edu.au/local/docs/media_news/MH370%20media%20release%202014.pdf

Quoting Quoting Extracts from the Curtain University Hydrophone Report on Possible MH370 Sounds:

Low frequency sounds can travel thousands of kilometres underwater, partly because sound is absorbed much more slowly in water than air and partly because the way temperatures and pressure change with depth in the ocean results in a minimum sound speed at a depth of about 1000 metres.

This sound speed minimum creates a duct in which sound is prevented from interacting with the sea surface or seabed, markedly reducing the loss of intensity with distance. This duct is known as the Deep Sound Channel.

Data from one of the IMOS recorders showed a clear acoustic signal at a time that was reasonably consistent with other information relating to the disappearance of MH370.
The crash of a large aircraft in the ocean would be a high energy event and expected to generate intense underwater sounds.
Dr Alec Duncan said the signal could also have been due to natural causes – such as a small earth tremor – but the timing made it of interest in the search for MH370.
It has since been matched with a signal picked up by CTBTO’s station south-west of Cape Leeuwin.
A very careful re-check of data from that station showed a signal, almost buried in the background noise but consistent with what was recorded on the IMOS recorder off Rottnest,” Dr Alec Duncan said....
Using the three hydrophones from the Cape Leeuwin station, it was possible to get a precise bearing that showed the signal came from the north-west.
Comparing the arrival time of the signal at the IMOS recorder with the time of its arrival at the Cape Leeuwin station, it was possible for Curtin’s Centre for Marine Science and Technology team to come up with an approximate distance to the source of the sound along this north-west bearing.

The experts who analyzed these acoustic events come up with a bearing 301.6° from HAO1 and an approximate distance (+/- 4 seconds) which gives location (2.3°S 73.7°E). This is a long way from the Satellite Ping ring, but there is a large error band on the distance, while the bearing is more certain, provided the sound was from a surface impact and not debris imploding at depth.

The problem is how to reconcile these two times 0019Z (last ping) and 0135Z (acoustic event). The ATSB in Appendix B ( www.atsb.gov.au/media/5243942/AE-2014-054_MH370_SearchAreasReport.pdf ) carry out a detailed analysis and conclude the acoustic event at 0135Z was not likely from MH370. However, I think that alternative scenarios need to be considered, mainly because if we accept the ATSB theory that MH370 did impact the IO in an uncontrolled spiral dive shortly after 0019Z somewhere in the currently defined search areas, it would very likely have been heard by the numerous hydrophones deployed. Therefore the fact that NO acoustic event was recorded shortly after 0019Z indicates that the A/C probably did not impact the IO as part of an uncontrolled dive at that time.

There is at least 25 times more energy in an impact at say 500kts (uncontrolled spiral) compared to say a 100 kts (controlled ditching). The question then is, whether the hydrophones could pick up the sound of controlled ditching which would involve much less energy. This could only be answered by testing or confirmed by the experts at Curtain University.

That leaves a few possibilities and variations on the following:
i) The A/C under the control of someone entered the ocean in a controlled (glide/engine out) ditching, which was of insufficient energy to be picked up by the hydrophones, and the sounds were perhaps of debris imploding as the A/C sank sometime later, or
iii) The A/C under the control of someone was running one or both engines from a single tank, once run dry (shortly before 0019) they restarted one or both engine(s) on another tank with a small amount of fuel they had kept reserve for a slow descent and eventual ditching at around (0135Z) which was the event that the hydrophones heard, or
iii.) The A/C came down in an area outside the range of these hydrophones and the acoustic event has nothing to do with MH370, or
iv.) The ping data is wrong.

The point is, that the absence of an acoustic event shortly after 0019Z is as significant, if not more so, than the event at 0135Z.

The implications are that this could put the A/C impact point anywhere up to an hour away from the 0019Z ping, perhaps somewhere along the 301.6° bearing from HAO1.

Frankly, I don't like where this analysis leads, can anyone see some alternatives that don't involve a controlled ditching or imply the ping data is wrong?
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:26 am

As a matter of interest, Australia has a 'world-leading' radar system called the Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN). As people will see from this diagram of the fields that can be searched, if MH370 did indeed fly all that way south towards Perth, two stations - Laverton and Alice Springs - would presumably have been able to track it? Remains to be seen why, if it was there, they didn't pick it up?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-sea...ucial-information-withheld/5389187
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:36 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 2):

Georesonance is a joke...your link is to Georesonance.

JORN has been discussed many times in these threads.

[Edited 2014-07-03 04:37:27]
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:59 am

Georesonance is still trying to claim that their hocus pocus kirlian photography garbage has located 9M-MRO in the Bay of Bengal.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:27 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 204):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 202):
I know that you have been saying that for months but when are you going to explain why a single shred of wreckage or debris has not yet been found anywhere in that area

None has been found anywhere ELSE either, 777jet?

That might just be because the several different search areas in the middle of nowhere that have and are being considered are much, much larger than the much, much smaller and more used and accessible (and searched) area you have seemed to narrow MH370 down to being in as 'right then and there' when and where the transponder stopped and it failed to check in with Vietnamese ATC...???
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:53 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 5):
you have seemed to narrow MH370 down to being in as 'right then and there' when and where the transponder stopped and it failed to check in with Vietnamese ATC...???

I think that that is fair enough, 777Jet. Not 'checking in' is just about unthinkable when flying under ATC control.

Seems to me that there are really only two possibilities at that point:-

1. Either there was a major mechanical 'event,' leading to the flight-crew being unable to communicate further; or

2. The Captain had decided, at that moment, to put his 'murder/suicide' plan into operation?

[Edited 2014-07-03 05:56:26]
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:18 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 6):
Seems to me that there are really only two possibilities at that point:-

1. Either there was a major mechanical 'event,' leading to the flight-crew being unable to communicate further; or

2. The Captain had decided, at that moment, to put his 'murder/suicide' plan into operation?

Until a shred of the plane is found I will still just slightly entertain the idea that the plane might have been taken by another party. Who? Maybe a government was involved. Why? Maybe the cargo. How? Persons on the plane or remotely. BTW, if the plane was taken remotely it will never be found as countries (eg: China and Russia) not on the best of terms with the country of manufacture (USA) would just love to know that the Boeing aircraft that they order and use can be taken over remotely...
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NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:21 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 7):
Until a shred of the plane is found I will still just slightly entertain the idea that the plane might have been taken by another party.

Agreed, 777Jet - I guess a hijack is a third possibility. But, if so, the hijack would have had to have occurred within two minutes of the sign-off from Kuala Lumpur ATC? How would the hijackers have known WHEN to strike?

And - more important - what would they have done next? Surely not quietly fly the aeroplane west over Malaysia, and then south for thousands of miles, until it ran out of fuel and everybody died?

[Edited 2014-07-03 06:37:47]
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:29 pm

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 1):
The experts who analyzed these acoustic events come up with a bearing 301.6° from HAO1 and an approximate distance (+/- 4 seconds) which gives location (2.3°S 73.7°E) . . . The implications are that this could put the A/C impact point anywhere up to an hour away from the 0019Z ping, perhaps somewhere along the 301.6° bearing from HAO1.

How about you take the intersection of the 301.6 deg bearing and the Ping ring and start searching there. We know the aircraft has to be close to the ping ring. The bearing of the sound event could pinpoint a location on that ring.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 1:36 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 8):
But, if so, the hijack would have had to have occurred within two minutes of the sign-off from Kuala Lumpur ATC? How would the hijackers have known WHEN to strike?

I did not intend to mean that I believe it could have been done by typical 'hijackers'...
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sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:07 am

Here's a reason to never, ever get your news from NewStraight Times: http://www.nst.com.my/node/8493

I literally couldn't believe what I was reading, until I got to the end of the article. It was written by UMNO youth party member. Geez, that would explain it. Defend the indefensible and get away with it. The actions of this govt. and most parties involved is deplorable. 'Diplomacy' needs to shelved and the parties that the know truth (and quite a few do) need to speak out.

Bluesky9...that was an excellent summary. Duncan seems to be pretty keen on investigating the other identified hydrophones, and he strikes me as a no frills kind of guy. I think all four of the possibilities you present are in play.

By the day, I'm trusting the Inmarsat ping data less and less. The folks at DS seem now to be on the verge of endorsing a search area even further south that their previous endorsed one, based on a new speed of 495kts. They're essentially calling the ATSB crazy. Saying the search area should be basically where the original (first) search area took place.

The hydrophones, besides Mr, H, may be all we have. This plane may be gone, and the Malaysians have NO interest in finding it. Somehow, this needs to change. I'm banking on China to save the day.   
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 46): Thank you for the prompt reply, sir. This is interesting. I notice that the distance from POVUS to RUNUT is approximately 1200 nm.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 143, Thread 68): Today's reports in the papers has the ATSB ruling out the aircraft followed waypoints.

Here is what the ATSB report says:

Quote:
Quoting ATSB: The waypoints at MUTMI and RUNUT were also considered as possible points that MH370 may have crossed.

Hm... Makes me wonder whether they're reading my posts here on a.net! 
Quote:
Quoting ATSB: However ground tracks through these points did not correlate well with the most favoured paths generated through the analysis of the BFO and BTO data.

IMHO, this is a bit misleading for two reasons: (1) paths that follow the POVUS ISBIX MUTMI RUNUT corridor fit the BTO rings just fine, depending on the velocity; (2) MUTMI RUNUT does not fit their favored BFO paths--however, certain members of the Duncan Steel group find that that path fits the BFO data as well.

The thing is, the BFO stuff--which I don't claim to understand--is highly subject to error: the ATSB report (p. 42) states that a 10 Hz variation in the BFO "fixed frequency bias" results in a 1,000 km error. The picture below shows that effect, which would result in the aircraft down about where DS et al. and I have been saying the aircraft will be found:

http://i.imgur.com/dkuLhY7.png

At any rate, it's clear to me, at least, the question of where they ought to locate the next search area is still very much an open question.
 
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Finn350
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:17 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 12):
The thing is, the BFO stuff--which I don't claim to understand--is highly subject to error: the ATSB report (p. 42) states that a 10 Hz variation in the BFO "fixed frequency bias" results in a 1,000 km error. The picture below shows that effect, which would result in the aircraft down about where DS et al. and I have been saying the aircraft will be found:

What they actually say is that a 10 Hz variation in the "fixed frequency bias" can result in the derived flight path at the arc moving 1000 km. That is not the same as a +/- 1000 km error you are suggesting (it is equivalent only to +/- 500 km error from the assumed center location). Furthermore, your derived location seems to be outside the aircraft performance limit (granted this cannot be independently verified as the remaining fuel load at 1707 Z has not been disclosed).

Regarding fixed frequency bias (p. 23):

Quote:
The offset could be estimated from the earlier parts of the flight where the location and behaviour of the aircraft was known. For MH370, the estimate was 150 Hz. Due to an observed tolerance of the data of ±5 Hz, the satellite working group used a variety of offsets from 145-155 Hz.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 8:07 pm

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 12):
The thing is, the BFO stuff--which I don't claim to understand--is highly subject to error: the ATSB report (p. 42) states that a 10 Hz variation in the BFO "fixed frequency bias" results in a 1,000 km error. The picture below shows that effect, which would result in the aircraft down about where DS et al. and I have been saying the aircraft will be found:

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 13):
1. What they actually say is that a 10 Hz variation in the "fixed frequency bias" can result in the derived flight path at the arc moving 1000 km.

2. That is not the same as a +/- 1000 km error you are suggesting (it is equivalent only to +/- 500 km error from the assumed center location).

3. Furthermore, your derived location seems to be outside the aircraft performance limit (granted this cannot be independently verified as the remaining fuel load at 1707 Z has not been disclosed).

1. That's pretty much what I said.

2. I'm not suggesting there is a +/- 1000 km error. I am suggesting there is something seriously wrong with the ATSB picture, and they are leading us on another wild goose chase: (A) their "favored" paths require unnaturally slow trajectories mostly below 400 knots; (B) they are flat out wrong in insinuating that tracks to the SW do not correlate with the BFO data.

E.g., here is a track published by Richard Godfrey of the so-called "Independent Group".

https://www.dropbox.com/s/llh4exbkry...0Model%20V6%20South%20Summary.xlsx

Note that his 24:19 location is about 25 nm from my proposed ISBIX MUTMI RUNUT 189T position at the same time that I first proposed months ago. As the aircraft would presumably go a little further past the 24:19 position, the closest round lat/long is: you guessed it: -39, 87.

Now look at his BFO comparisons. Disregarding the 24:19 BFO--that drops to 182 from 252 at 24:11, seemingly indicating a 7,000 km jump over the space of 8 minutes (I guess that must be where the vortex is)--the standard deviation of the errors between the predicted by the track vs actually measured is only 2 Hz. If 10 Hz = 1,000 km, then 2 Hz is 20 km.

3. Wait a sec. Just the other day you said there was "no special significance" that should be attached to the aircraft performance bound. Now you say it's golden... All I'll say is that the very first search areas were based on estimates of the range at cruising speed that were also consistent with the ping rings--which winds up about where Richard and I are talking about.
 
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Finn350
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 8:44 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 14):
Wait a sec. Just the other day you said there was "no special significance" that should be attached to the aircraft performance bound

I said that there was no special significance attached to the two intersection points of the performance limit arc and the 7th ping arc. Of course the performance limit arc in itself is significant, as it defines the absolute bound beyond which the aircraft could not have flown.
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:00 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 14):
here is a track published by Richard Godfrey of the so-called "Independent Group".

IMO Godfrey's calculations aren't based on a solid footing. For one thing he obviously has the flight passing over Indonesian territory, I consider that a non sequitur. Then there is the position of the aircraft at 18:22 and 18:29 to consider.

Up until recently, I used the same location that Godfrey uses; I depended on the "Malaysian radar data" which vaguely placed the aircraft a few miles past MEKAR at 18:22. I was even happy that the 18:22 ping ring came so "close" to that location. But the fact that Richard Cole wasn't so pleased with this difference made me give it another look. It does amount to a 70nm difference.

In the end, what it boiled down to is who do we believe, the Malaysians or Inmarsat and their BTO data. I'm with Inmarsat on this one. I believe that they are accurate to a few thousand yards in their placement of the ping rings.

So I created this plot to show where and when the U turn from Malacca to points south occurred. The white arc running north to south is a portion of the 18:29 ping ring.

http://imageshack.com/a/img834/9707/asqrc.jpg

The point of the final turn south can only be an approximation, earlier I had used POVUS but in my more recent plots I have moved that point to NOPEK for two reasons: NOPEK fits better with the Australian final report, and it produces great circle courses south that line up better with expected plots. However NOPEK remains a guess with no real information to place the turn at exactly that point.

Note to Warren: I apologize for not turning on the grid again, but I never seem to remember to do that when I copy the screen.

[Edited 2014-07-04 15:17:27]
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:13 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 12):
Hm... Makes me wonder whether they're reading my posts here on a.net! 

Funny you should say that ....
When you were off-air there for a few days, a while back, I was seriously wondering whether the authorities did in fact contact you behind the scenes.

Keep up the good work ... "mate..". And thanks for all your efforts with this.
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:55 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 16):
Reply 16

And thanks for your efforts too .....

I do have a question, though.
Assuming that MH-370 did turn almost due south, at either NOPEK or anywhere near there, what would be the logic of that? A conscious turn like that would require the appropriate thought processes, wouldn't it?.

Can we assume that one of the pilots came to again, just enough to try and select a course to turn back? Unfortunately, while he was still turning the knobs, he passed out again. The auto pilot then followed a course where the last selection stopped, i.e. the track the authorities are now trying to work out and pin-point.

Anyone on a suicide mission would surely head out on a course 225 degrees or similar, from (or near) NOPEK, wouldn't they?
Or is the sharp turn south an indication that the flight crew was incapacitated for most of the time and when they came to enough they tried to get back to either Indonesia or, indeed, Australia?
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:18 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 18):
Anyone on a suicide mission would surely head out on a course 225 degrees or similar, from (or near) NOPEK, wouldn't they?

Anyone on a suicide mission would most likely do that which would be LEAST expected, if their intention was to not have the a/c be found. There is little question that this applicable here.

When you finally (and I sat this respectfully) reach the conclusion, as I and many others have, that everything until the turn south was deliberate and meticulously thought out, then you must also conclude that the 'southern' leg was much the same..

The ONLY way to not reach this conclusion is by allowing for some miraculous thwarting of the commandeering of the a/c by passengers or crew at that moment (whenever 'that' moment was) OR that Zaharie himself 'screwed up' i.e. hurt himself or the a/c (It is certainly possible that he depressurized at this point, although i don't favor this scenario for a host of reasons). Or it was shot down....no.

Considering the control and intent demonstrated during the first 2 hours of flight, I find any of the above scenarios to be extremely unlikely.

So no, they 'surely' would NOT head out on a 225 degree course.
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:36 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 18):
A conscious turn like that would require the appropriate thought processes, wouldn't it?.

Yes, and I am of the firm belief that Captain Zaharie did this intentionally.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 18):
Anyone on a suicide mission would surely head out on a course 225 degrees or similar, from (or near) NOPEK, wouldn't they?

Who knows? Maybe there was something about the route towards Australia (or the south pole) that caught his imagination.

BTW I am a bit troubled by the frequent characterization of this action as a "suicide."
Although the end result was death for the man in control of the plane, the motivation was most likely something altogether different: something larger, if I may put it that way. The death of the actor may well have been a mere consequence.

His words: Don't waste your life on mundane lifestyles.
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sat Jul 05, 2014 2:32 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 14):
E.g., here is a track published by Richard Godfrey of the so-called "Independent Group".

Warren, since you threw this out there, I feel an explanation is warranted. Why the 'so-called'? Do you feel that they are a compromised lot in any material way? I'm not trying to goad you, and you are free to keep your opinions to yourself.

However, since lives (remotely) and families are at stake, and they are playing an integral role in the generation of news that is then being broadcast to the families and larger public, there credibility seems to be of the utmost importance.

Or maybe you meant 'self-named'?

[Edited 2014-07-04 19:42:41]
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:41 am

Quoting UALWN (Reply 25):

Thank you for posting this. There are many of us who share your assessment. You posted much more elegantly than I could have. I do hope that the aircraft is found and the true cause of this tragedy, whatever it is, may be proved beyond a shadow of a doubt.

May the passengers and crew rest in peace.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:28 pm

There's nothing new to contribute to this thread, and there won't be until the wreckage is found and recovered, which will happen in due time as the appropriate assets are deployed. In the meantime, the bullies can spew all the garbage they want. Signal-to-noise has reached zero. My personal opinion? Lock this thread until something newsworthy occurs.
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:41 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 24):
There's nothing new to contribute to this thread,

My post 16 in this thread disproves that claim.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:24 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 23):
No. Only anyone who refuses to give the most serious consideration to the pilot being responsible, for the obvious reasons. I have given 'accident' the most serious consideration and I reject it, completely.

If you didn't notice an airplane has two pilots, thus why are you talking about "the pilot"?

Quoting sipadan (Reply 23):
Yeah, he only tells us himself.

Where exactly?

Quoting sipadan (Reply 23):
Says who? You?

Anyone who ranks actual evidence over bunch of speculation based on nothing.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
LovesCoffee
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 4:07 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 2:06 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 23):
Anyone who places blame squarely on the shoulders of the crew is accused of 'driving away' the people that actually could contribute.

Not correct. A scenario assigning responsibility for the crash to the crew is a valid scenario. It's the constant blather and drivel of stating this as fact, rather than a scenario. Telling people they are wasting their time studying other scenarios.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 23):
And tangible proof is all around you. You just can't see it, or choose not to. I have no idea which.

Not correct. Your "examples" are all mostly based on Facebook (social media) and Wikipedia. All supposition and all wrong. I don't agree with you.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 23):
Or, tell me in a cogent manner how the hypoxic/electrical fire/toxic gas/pedestal smoker did all of this

Someone has already done an excellent job of this in previous threads. I can do no better than he. And I know you have read it.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 24):
There's nothing new to contribute to this thread, and there won't be until the wreckage is found and recovered, which will happen in due time as the appropriate assets are deployed. In the meantime, the bullies can spew all the garbage they want. Signal-to-noise has reached zero. My personal opinion? Lock this thread until something newsworthy occurs.

Moderators, you would do well to heed this. I think it's shameful that you have allowed this to go on for so long. Have you ever considered that, if the families of the pax and crew read this, Captian Shah's family might well be justified in filing a lawsuit for defamation and slander against a.net? If he were my father, I would be talking to a lawyer. Right now. But the real reason to stop this is because it is indecent and shameful. And it would be the right thing to do.

If the man is guilty, it will become apparent with time.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:35 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 27):
If he were my father, I would be talking to a lawyer.

Unfortunately, the legal situation is that 'the dead cannot be defamed,' nor can relatives sue on behalf of the dead person, LovesCoffee. Unfortunately, numerous cases have been determined on the basis that relatives etc. can only sue if they personally have been defamed, rather than the deceased person:-

http://www.rightsofwriters.com/2011/...e-sued-for-libeling-dead-john.html
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 6:33 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 28):

Thanks, NAV30, for the update.

G'day mate  
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
sipadan
Posts: 322
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 6:47 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 23):
Quoting pvjin (Reply 31):
Answers can be given to the families only after the wreckage has been found & black box recovered.

Says who? You?
Quoting pvjin (Reply 26):
Anyone who ranks actual evidence over bunch of speculation based on nothing.

So the evidence, according to you, can ONLY come from the a/c and black box.That's some sound logic, friend. I'm sure the families are willing to wait for hell to freeze over (which it would if people such as yourself had any say in the matter)

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 27):
Someone has already done an excellent job of this in previous threads. I can do no better than he. And I know you have read it.

Sure I remember. Funny how that person has done nothing in two months to further buttress said theory. That theory has been proven so wrong in so many ways and and on so many levels, yet it seems robust to you? Okay. Maybe that person would care to comment NOW on the theory that he constructed. Refine it, touch it up, point out it's strengths, give it some renewed legitimacy with what we now know (and we do know MUCH more, so I would suggest you not try to make this claim again).

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 27):
Moderators, you would do well to heed this. I think it's shameful that you have allowed this to go on for so long. Have you ever considered that, if the families of the pax and crew read this, Captian Shah's family might well be justified in filing a lawsuit for defamation and slander against a.net? If he were my father, I would be talking to a lawyer. Right now. But the real reason to stop this is because it is indecent and shameful. And it would be the right thing to do.

Coffee, this is a persuasive argument. So because you do not particularly care for the WAY in which I say something, yet support the right for me to say it nevertheless, I should be sued and muzzled. Since I've breached some arbitrary modicum of morality that is an affront to your sensibilities, I should cease and desist. Have you any idea as to the vitriol and character assassination that goes on in other a.net forums (try the non-av sites).

If you don't agree with the opinion, then we should be silenced. You would have the Zaharei clan suing reddit, facebook, twitter et.al. Hell, they should just sue the whole bloody world. Anyone that says Zaharie did it...just sue em. Maybe i should sue you for endorsing the idea that I'm a 'vile human being'.

By your logic, I might well be justified in filing a law suit against you. Don't worry though, I don't subscribe to this sort of self-righteousness.
  
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 8:24 am

FWIW, this news article titled "More Assets To Assist In Search For MH370 - Hishammuddin" is now available here.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:43 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 30):
Funny how that person has done nothing in two months to further buttress said theory.

He has, actually. He (and another member who is highly respected and knowledgeable regarding aviation operations in the region) just don't bother posting on this forum any more.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 8:00 pm

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 27):
If the man is guilty, it will become apparent with time.

And it will probably become apparent to some sooner than to others.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 12):
paths that follow the POVUS ISBIX MUTMI RUNUT corridor fit the BTO rings just fine, depending on the velocity

I have not been able to make any great circle path line up with ping ring locations for any constant speed. Where is your start location for the southern leg?
 
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pvjin
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 8:22 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 30):
So the evidence, according to you, can ONLY come from the a/c and black box.That's some sound logic, friend. I'm sure the families are willing to wait for hell to freeze over (which it would if people such as yourself had any say in the matter)

It's just the reality. Without black boxes we really can't know what happened in the cockpit. Yes, it looks like someone flew the aircraft off course on purpose. However unless some unexpected evidence is found we can't be sure who did it until black boxes are found. Families this, familias that, blah blah blah, nothing will bring their loved ones back anyway. What matters is finding out the truth and establishing a clear picture of what happened in this flight, that can't be done until further evidence is found

Obviously a suicide note left by the hijacker would also serve as a proper piece of evidence, however so far nothing like that has been found.

What you suggest the investigators should do anyway? Declare that "We think the captain hijacked the plane and flew it into the Indian Ocean because he was upset with Malaysian government." Do you think the relatives of those who were lost would be happy with such a simple and speculative explanation?
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:06 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 34):
Yes, it looks like someone flew the aircraft off course on purpose.

And it is clear that whoever "flew the aircraft" took control of the plane at the time between 1:19:29 when Captain Zaharie acknowledged the handover to Vietnamese ATC and the time of the expected login to the Vietnamese ATC, which should have occurred about two seconds later.

This is "evidence." That the "takeover" occurred in the middle of the handover is significant evidence.
That the transponder was shut off and the plane deviated from it's northbound course during the minute following this time is also "evidence".

Have any of the industry insiders here been able to get a look at the data from the 18:07 ACARS message? That would also be "evidence."

These kinds of evidence may be all we ever have to work with; I think by now everyone here understands that the idea of retrieving data from recorders on the plane is a long shot.
 
YVRLTN
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:12 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 33):
And it will probably become apparent to some sooner than to others.

I will say again there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever to rule out 100% that the crew carried out their actions under duress with a gun against their heads, either from hijackers from the cabin or a stowaway.
Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:30 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 35):
Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 36):

I will say again there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever to rule out 100% that the crew carried out their actions under duress with a gun against their heads, either from hijackers from the cabin or a stowaway.

I think that the timing of the takeover pretty much eliminates that possibility.

The 01:07 ACARS message would nail it down if there were anomalies with the fuel load or if an extra waypoint had already been inserted as was reported earlier. It would also be helpful to know what triggered that ACARS report.
 
747megatop
Posts: 1749
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:39 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 14):
1. That's pretty much what I said.

Vistiing the MH 370 thread after a gap of quite a few days. Mr Platts, what happened to your friend Pihero? I don't see him posting for the past few threads  .
 
ComeAndGo
Posts: 815
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:32 am

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 38):
what happened to your friend Pihero? I don't see him posting for the past few threads .

He's watching soccer.
 
YoungMans
Posts: 432
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 6:52 am

Those who are so convinced that either the Captain or the FO did it, may still have to think again.
What looks like a duck, walks like one and quacks like it, may not necessarily be a duck ….
…. it could easily be a sophisticated decoy!
I was seriously considering whether I should post this or not; 51% was in favour of ‘YES’.

With the disappearance of MH-370 there are two possibilities. Whatever it is that happened to this flight was the result of something wholly and solely on board the aircraft; or else there were other, external factors involved.
If the latter were to be true, what might they be?

The NZ/Australian magazine ‘UNCENSORED’ (Issue 36, p. 24) carries a re-printed article, originally dated the 31. March, that is both concerning and an eye opener if only some of it were true.

The writer of that article explains (already on the 31, March) what supposedly happened.
The following are one-liners describing his or hers main points:
The Americans are withdrawing from Afghanistan.
In February this year, a control & command module for pilotless drones was high jacked by the Taliban.
The Taliban offered it to the Russians but they were too busy with the Ukraine.
The Chinese took an interest and sent eight defence scientists to check it out.
They then bought the equipment for some millions of dollars.
It was repacked into six crates and shipped to Malaysia, early March.
There it was kept in the Chinese Embassy and later sent as diplomatic cargo on MH-370.
The Chinese defence scientists were also on board.
When MH-370 was between the two FIR’s, an American AWAC jammed all communication devices on 9M-MRO.
The AWAC then activated remote control of 9M-MRO and flew the aircraft to the Maldives for some refuelling.
It was seen there, by some villagers, during the approach.
From there the aircraft was flown to Diego Garcia.
There the cargo of six crates was discharged.
The plane was then sent out over the Indian Ocean [where they are still looking for it].

Is this plausible? I reckon yes, definitely.
Did anything like this happen? I have absolutely no idea; I leave that open for discussion.

Probably the first question would be, whether an AWAC (or anything else, including satellites) can indeed jam the communication devices on a modern airliner. One would think so ...

As for the satellite pings ... I’m sure they could be falsified in an electronics lab.

Please remember, though, this is not my theory; the above is from someone else’s article.

[Edited 2014-07-06 23:59:04]
 
YoungMans
Posts: 432
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 6:54 am

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 39):
He's watching soccer.

You mean, he's watching them loosing .... !!!
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 6:59 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 31):
FWIW, this news article titled "More Assets To Assist In Search For MH370 - Hishammuddin" is now available here.

Thanks.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
The writer of that article explains (already on the 31, March) what supposedly happened.
The following are one-liners describing the main points:
The Americans are withdrawing from Afghanistan.
In February this year, a control & command module for pilotless drones was high jacked by the Taliban.
The Taliban offered it to the Russians but they were too busy with the Ukraine.
The Chinese took an interest and sent eight defence scientists to check it out.
The Chinese then bought the equipment for some millions of dollars.
It was repacked into six crates and shipped to Malaysia, early March.
There it was kept in the Chinese Embassy and later sent as diplomatic cargo on MH-370.
The Chinese defence scientists were also on board.
When MH-370 was between the two FIR’s, an American AWAC jammed all communication devices on 9M-MRO.
The AWAC then activated remote control of 9M-MRO and flew the aircraft to the Maldives for some refuelling.
It was seen there, by some villagers, during the approach.
From there the aircraft was flown to Diego Garcia.
There the cargo of six crates was discharged.
The plane was then sent out over the Indian Ocean [where they are still looking for it].

Mystery solved.
 
sipadan
Posts: 322
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:06 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:04 am

Youngmans, a serious question. Where are the pax? Were they on board after the Americans sent it to the ends of the earth, or are they lounging around sipping mai-tais on DG?
 
LovesCoffee
Posts: 222
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:53 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 43):
Youngmans, a serious question. Where are the pax? Were they on board after the Americans sent it to the ends of the earth, or are they lounging around sipping mai-tais on DG?

I assume, from the tone of the story, that they would have stayed on board and are now all in the SIO. If you could really remote control the aircraft (doubtful), you could also remotely open bleed valves and depressurize the AC.

A couple of the points (remote control, falsified pings) were actually discussed in the early threads and deemed to be implausible.

But it does make an interesting story.

[Edited 2014-07-07 01:56:11]
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
sipadan
Posts: 322
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:06 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:26 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 44):
But it does make an interesting story.

I agree. But it really is a story, as in pure fiction. That said, it does have some of the more plausible aspects in regards to most of the other 'out there' scenarios. Not buying the remote thing, regardless of it's technical feasibility. There is too much else that effectively rules this out, for me.

Just to address the pax part. I find it difficult to believe that some cabal of CIA or military would simply send 229 people off to their deaths in THIS circumstance. All but the 8 scientists would have known nothing. Seems to be heartless AND unnecessary.
 
LovesCoffee
Posts: 222
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:50 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 45):
Just to address the pax part. I find it difficult to believe that some cabal of CIA or military would simply send 229 people off to their deaths in THIS circumstance. All but the 8 scientists would have known nothing. Seems to be heartless AND unnecessary.

Yeah, I had trouble with that too. Plus the fact that too many ordinary armed forces personnel would see the plot unfolding. Something would have leaked by now, even if this scenario were possible.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
mandala499
Posts: 6592
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:59 am

From the previous part:

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 196):
As Mandala has pointed out his family apparently blocked his planed marriage to his sweetheart an Air Asia captain because of her being a higher rank than his.

I said, it might have been... not saying it did.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 199):
Also, can anyone explain why it was that Zaharie was flying that evening? I mean, I know he's calling ALL the shots, but since it was poor Fariq's first flight (and admittedly, I know nothing about this etiquette), one would think that he would have the 'honors'.

This isn't Fariq's first flight. This wasn't Fariq's first flight as a crewmember on the 777. This was Fariq's first flight on the 777 as a co-pilot WITHOUT a safety co-pilot (he has flown as full co-pilot on the 737 before moving to the 777). Please, stop using language that makes Fariq sounds like an idiot newbie, he isn't.
Additionally, Zaharie was a training captain. He deals with "newbies on type" all the time. This case isn't unique...

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 32):
He has, actually. He (and another member who is highly respected and knowledgeable regarding aviation operations in the region) just don't bother posting on this forum any more.

There's nothing new. I am seeing that many are still trying to grasp the meaning and implication of the satcom restart at 1825. I'm also curious but my attention is required elsewhere these weeks so even I can't have a further look into it.

I'll stay away from fantastic theories such as "kidnapping the scientists" etc...   
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
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Istanbuler83
Posts: 25
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:24 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 41):
The NZ/Australian magazine ‘UNCENSORED’ (Issue 36, p. 24) carries a re-printed article, originally dated the 31. March, that is both concerning and an eye opener if only some of it were true.

Thank you for sharing this interesting story. But, if it is the plot behind MH370 mystery, it must be a high-level, top secret operation and government/governments will never accept that it happened that way.

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 46):
Just to address the pax part. I find it difficult to believe that some cabal of CIA or military would simply send 229 people off to their deaths in THIS circumstance. All but the 8 scientists would have known nothing. Seems to be heartless AND unnecessary.

yes, you are definetly right. It would be heartless but obviously NOT unnecessary in that particular case. And governments did and still do heartless things (e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria).

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 47):
Yeah, I had trouble with that too. Plus the fact that too many ordinary armed forces personnel would see the plot unfolding. Something would have leaked by now, even if this scenario were possible.

Hmmm. I think, it would be not that easy for a ordinary armed forces personnel to speak out about such a big story after realizing what happened to Edward Snowden, who is actually a death man in the USA and will never see the American soil again.

If this story is true, I ask myself, why Chinese are so silent about that. Too embarrassed, because of having some nasty deals with Taliban?
Istanbuler83
 
David L
Posts: 8551
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:31 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 46):
Yeah, I had trouble with that too.

For some perspective, have a look at the other articles in that publication!
 
sipadan
Posts: 322
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:06 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:43 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 47):
This isn't Fariq's first flight. This wasn't Fariq's first flight as a crewmember on the 777. This was Fariq's first flight on the 777 as a co-pilot WITHOUT a safety co-pilot (he has flown as full co-pilot on the 737 before moving to the 777). Please, stop using language that makes Fariq sounds like an idiot newbie, he isn't.
Additionally, Zaharie was a training captain. He deals with "newbies on type" all the time. This case isn't unique...

I fully realize this. What I was asking was whether or not it would perhaps be unusual that Fariq was NOT flying at takeoff that evening.

It seems that he was on comms (until the last transmission!!!), and since it was his FIRST flight w/out a safety pilot, would it not be the custom to let him fly out of KL? Of course, Zaharie would have say in the matter. I have no idea, but was looking for an answer.

So very specifically, I would like to know whether or not the "newbies on type", when flying with Zaharie and departing from KL, are on comms or controls AT TAKEOFF. There is a precedent that has been established, and I am wondering what that is?br>
[Edited 2014-07-07 04:51:25]

[Edited 2014-07-07 04:53:17]

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