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jetlanta
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:50 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 45):
I have several good friends at Boeing who tell me that slots are quietly reserved for when a sudden need arises or when a large order suddenly cancels (As in the EK A350 cancellation). Production rates can be increased or decreased when need dictates

But ramping up production on the 787 isn't the same as on the 737. It is a far more complicated logistical challenge. And frankly, they can barely produce them at the rate they are at today. The supplier capacity to increase production is not there today. There have been extensive articles about this over the past few months.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 48):
An empty slot on the production schedule is an opportunity to sell one at a higher price.

Yeah. And that is the point I was making to Delta1011man. What slots DO come open are not going to be used to give any airline some sort of amazing deal that makes the 787 price competitive with the A330NEO. Boeing doesn't even want to price the airplane that low using post-2020 slots, much less earlier ones. They feel they have a premium product that justifies a premium price.

The idea that Delta gets some special consideration at Boeing is hogwash. Over the past 15 years, Delta hasn't ranked among Boeing's Top 10 customers. Maybe not even the Top 20. The Gulf 3 carriers have each placed orders of more value to Boeing in the past five years than Delta has in 85 years. Delta's last two orders went to Airbus. There is no special relationship anymore. Delta wants the best value it can get. Period.

Boeing will try hard, and may come up with a solution that does something like front-load 777-300ERs (which it can sell cheap due to the order gap created by the 777X), then deliver 787-9s on the back end. So Delta replaces 744s early, keeps the 767-300ERs flying through 2020, then starts taking 789s. I've got no doubt that they could get a few 789s pre-2020, but I think that they won't come in volume in that timeframe.

So there is a viable model for Boeing here. I think they have to be very aggressive on the 777-300ER because they can't be on the 787-9. The question is, is the total package deemed a better value than Airbus' A330NEO offer? Who knows? I just think its silly for anyone to act like the Airbus product isn't under consideration or even favored. It is, on both accounts. Now its up to Boeing to make a better deal.

[Edited 2014-07-16 09:08:34]
 
neutronstar73
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:59 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 49):

Yeah, that is a curious comment. Maybe he'd like to see it in Delta colors?
 
brilondon
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:00 pm

I think that we can all agree that DL will order the A330neo to replace the ones in their fleet. I like the plane to fly and would love to see some newer models in the fleet. I can also see DL ordering aircraft from Boeing as well. They are a really large airline and really would benefit from having a diverse fleet.
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speedbored
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:27 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 48):
You can speed up or slow down the line as needed.

You make it sound trivial. It's not. Even a rate change of just 2-3 per month takes many years of careful planning to implement.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 45):
We have all seen how fast Boeing can ramp up production of the 737 series.

Yes we have, and it's actually quite slowly. Both Boeing and Airbus would like to be churning out a lot more 737s / 320s right now. The fact is that they are ramping production up as fast as they can but it takes a lot of time to do so.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 48):
Now Airbus is facing a big hole in their projected A350 production schedule and I am sure they would be more than happy to talk price with any carrier that wants to take over a large number of slots.

It's hardly a big hole when the cancellation is less than 10% of the backlog and was for deliveries spread over many years.

If there was a hole in their production schedule, why would they be looking to ramp up production even further?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...uction-with-nippier-processes.html

Given the length of the current A350 backlog, current airline demand for widebodies, and the likely size of the discount Emirates would have been given, I would be amazed if Airbus does not resell all of the cancelled slots at significantly higher prices than Emirates were going to be paying.

[Edited 2014-07-16 09:29:10]
 
Flyglobal
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:30 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 48):
Actually, they are quite similar in functionality. You can speed up or slow down the line as needed. Right now Boeing is producing over 1 737 per calendar day and they want to increase it.

An empty slot on the production schedule is an opportunity to sell one at a higher price. Boeing does not normally disclose the price any carrier pays for an airplane--for that you sometimes have to dig through the carriers SEC filings and even that will be a rounded number. Boeing always says when quoting public prices that it is the "list" price and carriers that buy substantial numbers of aircraft get greatly reduced prices. This has been discussed on this forum numerous times most lately in regard to DL's purchase of the end-of-production B737-900ER's. It has been repeatedly rumored that they paid less than 50% of list.

Now Airbus is facing a big hole in their projected A350 production schedule and I am sure they would be more than happy to talk price with any carrier that wants to take over a large number of slots.

Boeing is now and always has been an aggresive pricer. They want the business and while they are not going to give the frame away they are realistic enough to know how to price. An airline like Air Kenya does not pay the same price for a 777 that UA would. Plus Boeing has their military contracts to bolster the bottom line--Airbus has a limited amount of military business.

Northwest walked away from the A340 order literally while the airplanes were in final assembly. Airbus subsequently sold those frames to Virgin Atlantic and I am sure the Richard Branson got them for a VERY good price.

So DTWPursor boy,
my intention is not to offend you. Maybe my words were to harsh for you, so in this case I apologize.

Most of your comments I could sign immediately.
The only exception where we may differ is when it comes to the 787.
I think we can not compare 787 ramp up and production cycles between a 747, 777, 767 and 737 to the 787.

Different to all other lines the 787 has the most complex supply chain to manage around the globe.
A major reason why the 787 was so delayed was exactly the supply chain, The 787 will have several investment thresholds, as e.g. an autoclave can only run a number of cycles / period despite that there are for sure efficiency gains over time.
But one time you have to do a huge step investment. This goes all through the supply chain always one runs at alimit.

For the 787 Boeing is in a catchup mode to finally fulfill all this orders which are delayed for many years. If Boeing could, they would increase production to the targeted 14 or even 17 frames/ month by tomorrow. But they can’t and given the experience with the quality issues they had, they will be even more carful. In addition they have to bring the unit cost (variable cost) down to a level that they get more from the Airlines check then they pay themselves for making the unit.

So given that, I do not believe that Boeing will do an exceptional discount/ special conditions for the 787 just to beat Airbus on the A330, even if it is mentally painful for them. In case they negotiate 747-8s vs. A380s or 737s vs. A320s, they may do it to get the deal however I believe, as they have way more flexibility there. Not for the 787 thogh- this will happen when the 787 is ready for an upgrade – 2025 around and so.

In case of Airbus and the A330: I do not believe that it can reach the 787 technically ever. For Airbus it was the best business case they could do:
Instead of ramping down the existing supply chain for the A330 in the next few years gradually and at the same time invest into further ramping up the A350, they accept a calculated investment and bring this plane close enough to the 787 for an additional 10 years sales. A wise Decision even if they probably loose 20% of potential the A350 sales, but they save way more of investment and can offer earlier slots for the ones who really need the A350.

Regards

Flyglobal
 
jetlanta
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:44 pm

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 54):
For the 787 Boeing is in a catchup mode to finally fulfill all this orders which are delayed for many years. If Boeing could, they would increase production to the targeted 14 or even 17 frames/ month by tomorrow. But they can’t and given the experience with the quality issues they had, they will be even more carful. In addition they have to bring the unit cost (variable cost) down to a level that they get more from the Airlines check then they pay themselves for making the unit.

So given that, I do not believe that Boeing will do an exceptional discount/ special conditions for the 787 just to beat Airbus on the A330, even if it is mentally painful for them. In case they negotiate 747-8s vs. A380s or 737s vs. A320s, they may do it to get the deal however I believe, as they have way more flexibility there. Not for the 787 thogh- this will happen when the 787 is ready for an upgrade – 2025 around and so.

I completely agree with this.

Boeing can win this, but its probably going to be on the back of 777-300ER delivery slots and pricing. It will be the value of the entire package, because I don't think that Boeing can match the A330NEO economics (for Delta's requirements) with the 787 as a stand-alone offer.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 5:48 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 48):
An empty slot on the production schedule is an opportunity to sell one at a higher price.

Just to have a little fun and I am NOT picking on you. Boeing has at least three 737 empty slots with a lot of parts minus the fuselages that will NEVER get used due to a train derailment in Montana. You have over thirty years in the airline business and should have a good insight in the airline business. I had 37 years in the business and I am retired just like most of the aircraft I worked on are also retired. We won't wind up in the Smithsonian, like the nose of a 747, but we both know the difference between a rudder and a radome and what is in between.
Just keep on flying and sharing your knowledge.   
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Motorhussy
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:52 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 55):
Boeing can win this, but its probably going to be on the back of 777-300ER delivery slots and pricing. It will be the value of the entire package, because I don't think that Boeing can match the A330NEO economics (for Delta's requirements) with the 787 as a stand-alone offer.

To my way of thinking, DL needs both the A33N - both models - and the 77W, which would compliment the 77L in terms of crew and Mx etc

The combination of A338 and 77W would perfectly fit their current RFP for 744 and 763 replacement and would fit well with their existing fleet structure.
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seabosdca
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:59 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 11):
“There is a huge need for a small widebody. We really need Airbus to step up and re-engine.”

There are two possible translations for this, both of which make sense:

1) "We really like the idea of a A330neo because it fits so well with our current A330 fleet."

2) "We really need Airbus to launch a A330neo because Boeing is holding us over a barrel because the 787 doesn't have real competition."

As I said several times in the A330neo threads, the launch of the A330neo was obviously in Delta's interest no matter which widebodies it ends up ordering. Less clear, so far, is whether launching the A330neo was in Airbus's interest.
 
flyabr
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:50 pm

From what I can tell, Delta's biggest issue with Boeing right now is on price. Anderson mentioned in past interviews that Boeing needs to sharpen their pencils. That was in reference to the 787-10 I believe. Personally I'd like to see Delta operate the 788-789-787-10 as that makes so much sense in that those models easily cover their current capacity range outside of the 744 and 777L. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that in the end the A330NEO will find a significant place in Delta's future fleet, and that may mean no 787s.  
 
727LOVER
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:52 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 26):
Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 24):The Neo is going to happen. Move on, get over it. 787 will happen too though. (of course, this will also be painful for you, because my money is on the T1000 not the GEnX) Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 27):Should DL order the A330neo would be putting Airbus' best interests above their own.

Looks like I missed the usual (now deleted) entertaining comments.   


If my understanding is correct, if Delta did order the A330NEO, they could get them, what like 2 years before the 787?
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trex8
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 68):
While the pneumatic system isn't something I would say is a big issue, its an issue. Your joking if you think they can just toss a all electric engine onto a an airplane that needs both electrics and pneumatic power and it isn't an issue.

I posted this on the A330neo part 2 thread, the bleed is a minor issue compared to the lower electrical power generation

I can confirm that adding cabin and deice bleed to the Trent T1000 will be one of the simpler tasks when creating the T7000,%u201D Goodhead says. %u201CIn fact it will require no hardware change and the additional bleed will affect the engines performance with less then 1/10 of a percent. There are other areas requiring more of our attention, such as the significant reduction in electrical power served to the A330neo airframe compared to the requirements of the 787. The reduction in the drive power to the gearbox where the aircraft%u2019s electrical generators are attached will cause hardware changes on the engines internals. This and the changed mounting of the engine (compared to the mounting of the T700) are more significant challenges for us and Airbus
http://leehamnews.com/2014/07/15/air...t-2-engines-and-maintenance-costs/
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:31 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 68):
Jeesh, the 330 list 10M higher than the 789 and has a big 1% operating cost difference.

List price means about as much as a campaign promise. The fact is that the 330neo is going to have a lower real-world sales price than the equivalently sized 787. If it didn't, there would be no reason whatsoever to build it.
 
jetlanta
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:34 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 72):
List price means about as much as a campaign promise. The fact is that the 330neo is going to have a lower real-world sales price than the equivalently sized 787. If it didn't, there would be no reason whatsoever to build it.

In fact, it will be dramatically lower. Not understanding that is not understating this entire discussion.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:54 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 61):
Your joking if you think they can just toss a all electric engine onto a an airplane that needs both electrics and pneumatic power and it isn't an issue.

You need to understand that it's a misnomer to call the 787 engines bleedless. While the 787 frame is bleedless, both the GEnx and T1000 produce bleed air for their own use. It is a trivial piece of work for RR to make the required changes for the A330neo.
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MSPNWA
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:10 am

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 42):
On paper, its just about perfect for Delta's need, which is a sub 6000 mile, 300-seat aircraft to ply the North Atlantic, North Pacific and South America routes.

The A330 neo is considerably larger than the 767 series. On paper it's a poor fit for most of DL's routes. Most simply do not have the demand for a roughly 300 seat airplane. The neo could find a place in the DL network, but only a piece of it.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 63):
Look, I know for a FACT that the A330NEO is under serious consideration. I also know that the Airbus has a really strong hand to play. I'm not making this up.

Then let's start naming names and sourcing sources. I wouldn't doubt the neo is under consideration, but I wouldn't talk absolutes unless able to post why.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 64):
The fact is that the 330neo is going to have a lower real-world sales price than the equivalently sized 787. If it didn't, there would be no reason whatsoever to build it.

Who do you think you are? Does your name end in Anderson? Leahy? It wasn't long ago you implied that DOT data is a complete lie. Now you have this "factual" statement that the last line does not support as factual. Who are you?
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:14 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 67):
The A330 neo is considerably larger than the 767 series.

And exactly the same size as the smaller two variants of the 787. There is no way to avoid the reality that the 767-300ER fleet will be replaced by larger airplanes. DL will adjust, just like they have to shifts in narrowbody capacity.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 67):
Then let's start naming names and sourcing sources.

Anderson repeatedly praising the A330neo and demanding Airbus build it isn't enough of a name or source for you?

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 67):
It wasn't long ago you implied that DOT data is a complete lie.

  

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 67):
Now you have this "factual" statement that the last line does not support as factual.

I repeat: there would be no reason to build the A330neo if it won't sell for less money than the 787. It's the same size as the 787-8 and -9 with slightly worse fuel burn and slightly higher maintenance costs.

[Edited 2014-07-16 17:15:02]
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 67):
The A330 neo is considerably larger than the 767 series. On paper it's a poor fit for most of DL's routes. Most simply do not have the demand for a roughly 300 seat airplane. The neo could find a place in the DL network, but only a piece of it.

Per seat guru DL A332 are 234 seats, their 763s range from 211 to 261 seats and 764 246 seats. So why wouldnt a A330-800 work as a 767 replacement with the A330-900 for busier routes and expansion (DL A333 presently seat 293)??
 
747400sp
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:48 am

I believe DL should upgrade their current order to A339NEOs.
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:05 am

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 71):
I believe DL should upgrade their current order to A339NEOs.

That would put back deliveries almost 2 years. I see DL picking up more ceos and then ordering neos as well in the future.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:47 am

Here's the thing on the DL RFP, both manufacturers are going to put forward proposals to cover the request. So DL is going to have to "consider" both manufacturers.

Airbus is most certainly going to propose the A330NEO part of their response. They will also likely propose some end-of-the line A330CEOs at favorable rates. With what is happening to the current 744 routes and transition out of the NRT hub, its possible that DL could cover what remains from NRT with A330CEO and A330NEO plus 777s. In theory, DL could get some more top-off A332s to replace some of the 763ER capacity, plus so more A333CEOs and some A330NEOs to cover the balance of the 763ER and 744s. Will Airbus get the full RFP? Probably not.
Airbus has no chance at winning the RFP if they don't at least propose some amount of next generation aircraft.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:48 am

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 42):
Like I said, I prefer the 787 myself. I'm only arguing with you here because you are wrong. All signs point to the A330NEO as the one to beat here. And I'm not pulling that out of my ass.

I'd concur.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 49):
Unless you worked for Delta or Airbus, Why would this be awesome?
Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 51):
Yeah, that is a curious comment. Maybe he'd like to see it in Delta colors?

People here have preferences for one or the other manufacturer or aircraft model all the time. Not sure why you would question this one? Interestingly, you didn't question Jetlanta's preference for the 787.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 67):
Quoting jetlanta (Reply 63):Look, I know for a FACT that the A330NEO is under serious consideration. I also know that the Airbus has a really strong hand to play. I'm not making this up.
Then let's start naming names and sourcing sources. I wouldn't doubt the neo is under consideration, but I wouldn't talk absolutes unless able to post why.

Seriously? Part of the reason people have respect ratings on here is so that when they say something, people can judge their comments based on history. in Jetlanta's case, regardless of whether or not you have a personal opinion about him, he clearly is in the know. He isn't saying what WILL happen, he is saying what IS happening behind the scenes. If you honestly expect him to out his sources or face personal problems just to appease you, I think you're being unrealistic, and I think you are being unfair to a poster who has been much more balanced and (generally) controlled than the old WorldTraveler when it comes to DL stuff.

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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
jetlanta
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:59 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 70):
now im throwing a tantrum. Good talk. This is your normal, you never post any real data and expect me to think your the all knowing.

Are you kidding? I'm pretty much the ONLY person on here who ever posts real data. So stop projecting.

I don't claim to be all knowing, that is your M.O.

When I do claim to know something, its pretty much because I do. I KNOW that Delta is seriously considering the A330NEO. I don't just know it because the CEO of Delta says they are. I don't just know it because the the Sales chief at Airbus publicly predicts that Delta buys the plane. I say it because I KNOW it.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 74):
Seriously? Part of the reason people have respect ratings on here is so that when they say something, people can judge their comments based on history. in Jetlanta's case, regardless of whether or not you have a personal opinion about him, he clearly is in the know. He isn't saying what WILL happen, he is saying what IS happening behind the scenes. If you honestly expect him to out his sources or face personal problems just to appease you, I think you're being unrealistic, and I think you are being unfair to a poster who has been much more balanced and (generally) controlled than the old WorldTraveler when it comes to DL stuff.

Thanks man. I don't understand why the same people, who are always wrong, never believe the people who are usually right. If MSPNWA hasn't figured out by now that my access to Delta information is better than his, I suppose he never will.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:55 am

Quoting tu154m (Reply 32):
"Airbus Anderson" will be ordering A330NEOs-not if but when. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Most of "Delta's" Sr Mgt are NWA senior Mgt. "Delta" has ordered the A330, the A321, and they will order the A350 and A330NEO.

NWA Senior mgt also ordered the 787. They don't care if it's A or B, they care if it's the right plane at the right price for the airline. NW flew the 707, 727, 747, and 757.

Once DL and NW merged, there were enough 767s and 777s to do most of what NW had wanted to do with the 787, so the 787 deliveries were pushed back. And they've ordered more 737s, too.

So let's skip the bit about how Mr. Anderson and his colleagues are nothing but a bunch of Airbus fanboys.
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:39 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 67):
The A330 neo is considerably larger than the 767 series. On paper it's a poor fit for most of DL's routes. Most simply do not have the demand for a roughly 300 seat airplane. The neo could find a place in the DL network, but only a piece of it.

Either 787s or A330s will replace the aging 767 fleet. Both 787 and A330 are similar in size.
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UA444
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:47 am

Northwest was nuts over just Airbus??? Is this the same Northwest that proudly flew the largest DC-9 fleet in the world and flew DC-10s long after every else didn't?.

[Edited 2014-07-17 00:48:42]
 
727LOVER
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:22 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 78):
Is this the same Northwest that proudly flew the largest DC-9 fleet in the world

And how many of those did they order?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
DTWPurserBoy
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:52 pm

Quoting flyabr (Reply 59):
From what I can tell, Delta's biggest issue with Boeing right now is on price. Anderson mentioned in past interviews that Boeing needs to sharpen their pencils.

DL has always been "price sensitive." That is why I think they will grab the 77W's as they start ramping up for the new 778 and 9. I would not be surprised to see them take some gently used 77W's that come available. One problem is that DL has a habit of buying one or two used airplanes from one source and a few from another. Witness the 767 fleet. It is a hodge-podge of model types, configurations and engine types. I would think a bit more economy could be wrung out if they standardized and bought used aircraft in a block from one sourse--such as if the ME3 were to make some avaialble.

About a year ago DL got one lonely 757 that had been in the desert for a while. That one relly stumped me unless they just got a heck of a deal on it. I don't recall if that was a part of the GOL deal or not. Seems to me that at least one 767 was involved in that transaction. I'd like to know more about that.

I don't buy into the argument that DL is not considered a major Boeing customer. The order for 100 737-900ER's was a large capital outlay but when compared to some of the middle east carriers it is not. However, when placed among the American legacies Boeing I am sure wants to retain them rather than buy trans-Atlantic.

True--changing production rates on aircraft is a time-consumng and very detailed operation. Boeing's production method of having parts arrive at Everett (or Renton) just in time for use means a lot of careful planning with suppliers. This, plus some initial subcontractor quality issues, pushed the 787 far off its scheduled delivery schedule. I am sure BOeing does not want to see a repeat of the pulic relations mess. But now the 787 seems to be running well and, for one, am VERY happy to see the -9 in the air and look forward to seeing the -10.

Now to move on to the Y-1 and a discussion of a wide-body short-haul jet.
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jetlanta
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:38 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 80):
I don't buy into the argument that DL is not considered a major Boeing customer. The order for 100 737-900ER's was a large capital outlay but when compared to some of the middle east carriers it is not. However, when placed among the American legacies Boeing I am sure wants to retain them rather than buy trans-Atlantic.

I didn't say that Delta isn't a major, nor important, Boing customer. My point was that Boeing has a lot of MORE important customers at this point. 100 739s is nothing in dollar value compared to what airlines in the Middle East and Asia have spent with Boeing over the past decade. United and American are both far bigger Boeing customers over the past decade. Hell, Lion Air is a much bigger Boeing customer than Delta at this point.

My argument was that the folks who think that Boeing will somehow move Heaven and Earth for Delta have a jingoistic perspective. Those 787 slots that Boeing has already sold belong to ANA, American, Air Canada, Air France, British Airways, Etihad, JAL, ILFC, ALC, LAN, Qatar, Singapore, United, etc... All of those companies have been bigger Boeing customers over the past decade.

Of course Boeing wants to retain Delta. But Boeing wanted to sell Delta more 739s also, but Delta bought 45 A321s instead. Delta will find the best value it can find. Unlike most airlines, Delta's philosophy is not "find the airplane to match the mission". Instead, its strategy is "find the best value and build the network around the asset."
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:38 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 80):
DL has always been "price sensitive."

I would hope that every airline is "price sensitive"

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 80):
I would not be surprised to see them take some gently used 77W's that come available. One problem is that DL has a habit of buying one or two used airplanes from one source and a few from another. Witness the 767 fleet. It is a hodge-podge of model types, configurations and engine types. I would think a bit more economy could be wrung out if they standardized and bought used aircraft in a block from one sourse--such as if the ME3 were to make some avaialble.

Acquistion of used widebody aircraft is not going to happen.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 80):
I don't buy into the argument that DL is not considered a major Boeing customer. The order for 100 737-900ER's was a large capital outlay but when compared to some of the middle east carriers it is not. However, when placed among the American legacies Boeing I am sure wants to retain them rather than buy trans-Atlantic.

The whole notion that DL is not a major Boeing or a major Airbus customer is absolutely rediculous. Anyone who makes such statements has zero credibility on this forum.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 80):
True--changing production rates on aircraft is a time-consumng and very detailed operation. Boeing's production method of having parts arrive at Everett (or Renton) just in time for use means a lot of careful planning with suppliers.

Production rate changes in aircraft manufacturing are huge undertaking and literally take years of careful planning and forecasting. There are numerous long lead-time parts and raw materials that take years to ramp-up capacity. Plus, there are step-function changes at various supplier and at various points in the manufacturing process that require huge investments in tooling, equipment, and labor.

Coordination of lead times and capacity planning are one thing, but managing the program costs to do so are another matter. Military programs and commerical aircraft programs are completely different animals. Primarily because in the past historically military aircraft programs were on a cost+plus basis, and the financial impact was just pushed on to the government/US taxpayers. That is all starting to change now as more programs transition to fixed-fee.

Commerical aircraft have the whole profitability context to deal with, and unless customers want to pay a huge premium to ramp-up program the manufacturers will be reluncant to do so. They are not in business to chase unprofitable orders.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 80):
But now the 787 seems to be running well and, for one, am VERY happy to see the -9 in the air and look forward to seeing the -10.

Running "well" is all relative. The supply chain is extremely fragile, they are not where they need to be yet from getting expected aircraft performance, and manufacturing costs are still higher than anticipated. At the end of the day, they need to deliver aircraft that meet customer expectations, on-time, and profitably.
 
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:59 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 81):

Of course Boeing wants to retain Delta. But Boeing wanted to sell Delta more 739s also, but Delta bought 45 A321s instead. Delta will find the best value it can find. Unlike most airlines, Delta's philosophy is not "find the airplane to match the mission". Instead, its strategy is "find the best value and build the network around the asset."

Personally, I see the A321 acquisition as a 757 replacement as well as a logical capacity control for the A319/320/321 fleet--move assets as needed. NW originally had 321 options but let them expire. They still have option for (IIRC) 5 A320's (were they exchanged for the A321 purchase?) and have sold off a few A319's (or let the leases expire).
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georgiaame
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 18):
Richard Anderson has publicly said that Delta is interested in the A330NEO
Quoting tu154m (Reply 32):
Most of "Delta's" Sr Mgt are NWA senior Mgt. "Delta" has ordered the A330, the A321, and they will order the A350 and A330NEO

There has been a lot of quoting of Mr Anderson from the Aviation Week article, but no one seems to have picked up on some particulars. In the article, Anderson says specifically that Delta needs a wide body that seats 275, with a range from 5000-5500miles. The reason he does not want the paper 779 is that it is specifically designed for a 7-8,000mile run, and flying the aircraft 2000 miles less than its design is not economically viable for the airline.

So what has Airbus offered, and I would ASSUME that Anderson or other Delta designee was interviewed extensively by Airbus to come up with aircraft specifications? The 800 flies 7450miles with a passenger load of 252. By Anderson's standards, that's 2000miles too far to be economical for Delta, and with 25 fewer passengers/seats than desired. The 900 flies 6200 miles, only 1200 more than Delta's optimal, with 310 passengers/seats, or 35 too many. (Of course, they are currently flying the 777LR which has a 10K mile range, on the Atlanta-Narita route which is only 6500miles, but who's counting?)

So you crystal ball gazers: where are we now with potential A330neo orders flying the widget? (Personally, I say replace the current 747s with 748i's and be done with it! But that's me)
"Trust, but verify!" An old Russian proverb, quoted often by a modern American hero
 
lucky777
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:13 pm

So let me get this straight....if I'm reading things right, Delta is going to order the A330NEO. which is more expensive and less efficient than the 787 which is available today and a proven airframe to replace the bulk of their 747 and 767 fleet? Not sure I see the wisdom in that.
 
lucky777
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting georgiaame (Reply 84):
Anderson says specifically that Delta needs a wide body that seats 275, with a range from 5000-5500miles.

Yeah, but that basically limits the A330NEO to SEA for most of it's Asia flying. DTW/JFK/ATL-NRT is 5600-5900nm which would realistically disqualify the A330NEO. Of course, this says nothing of the fact that Delta is trying to move away from NRT and overfly Japan to its Asian destinations in the future, which of course is that much further from the mainland U.S. It would appear the 787, or 77E which is already in the fleet would be the better plane from the East Coast to Asia as the A330NEO will be incapable of such a flight.
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:30 pm

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 85):
So let me get this straight....if I'm reading things right, Delta is going to order the A330NEO. which is more expensive and less efficient than the 787 which is available today and a proven airframe to replace the bulk of their 747 and 767 fleet? Not sure I see the wisdom in that.

The point is while the list price may be higher everyone including some of the biggest lessors in the business know they can get a A330 for a significantly lower price. The 787 is only more efficient at longer stages. At shorter ones its a wash and even for the A332ceo it has higher payload than the 788 at 4000nm or less. Except for the engines there isnt anything on the A330neo which is likely to be such a new development to impact reliability of what is already a proven airframe and the engine is a variant of the 1000-TEN for the 78J.
So depending on what your routes are the A330neo may make you as much or even more money than a 787. Plus you can get some by 2018 while there are few delivery spots for a 787 till the end of the decade.
I dont see the neo replacing any 744s unless DL are into some major downgauging of some routes. I do see them as part of their 767 replacement., and ultimately their A330ceo replacements.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:36 am

Regarding the list prices, Leahy calls the Boeing list price striped and the Airbus list price loaded.

We see incomparable list prices in for example cars, if you go buying a Mercedes in Germany you see a striped list price and everything is an extra, you go buying a Honda the list price is for a loaded car everything you will want already included.
 
waly777
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:00 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 87):

The 787 is only more efficient at longer stages. At shorter ones its a wash and even for the A332ceo it has higher payload than the 788 at 4000nm or less. Except for the engines there isnt anything on the A330neo which is likely to be such a new development to impact reliability of what is already a proven airframe and the engine is a variant of the 1000-TEN for the 78J


Sorry but that is incorrect. The 787 is more efficient at any range than the 330, trip fuel is always lower. It is at longer ranges that efficiency increases.

1) It is lighter than the ceo, has more fuel efficient engines and is.more optimised re-aero dynamics.

2) Very rarely do airlines operate @ mtow or mzfw...thus the payload advantage of the 332 over the 788 (1 or 2 tons?) really is negligible. Zeke is usually quick to point out the mzfw/mtow line.

3) The neo will most likely add weight and be using the -TEN which would already be in service on a lighter frame the same size as either NEO. Though, there have been MZFW increases and the 338 may very likely maintain the payload advantage or increase it even.

But of course acquisition costs are a huge expenditure and when factored into the key metrics, the NEO will be a fantastic offering, not to mention training and mx spares commonality too.
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:09 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 89):
Sorry but that is incorrect.

I'm not sure about that. It has been reported that the 767 trip costs on 1,000 - 2,000 routes are basically the same as the 787.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
jetlanta
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:30 pm

http://leehamnews.com/2014/07/17/air...first-analysis-part-3-performance/

Quote:
The A330 versus the 787

It is clear the A330neo forms a competitive proposition versus the 787 and that the competition between the two variants in the 250-300 seat segment will be fierce going forward. We have gained more understanding of the cabin modifications that Airbus has included in the A330neo, and this together with our knowledge from our normalized cabin work for our A330neo study makes it possible to position which models are competing in the market place:

For the 300 seats segment, it is A330-900neo which is competing with 787-9. They are virtually identical in size with the seat gains the neo has. We see that the 787-9 would still hold a very slight advantage in fuel burn of 1-2% for 4,000nm sectors.

For the 250 seat segment, it is the A330-800neo which is competing with a 3%-4% smaller 787-8. The 787-8 is clearly lighter and will show a larger margin to the neo than for the 300 seat segment, and we see that there is still a fuel consumption gap of about 3%-4% between them at 4,000nm.

Why the difference in what we see and what Airbus claims (they claim equal fuel consumption performance)? We don’t know how it configure the 787. We, for instance, use identical -10% TSFC Trent 1000TEN engines on the 787 with identically configured cabins, crew rests etc.

Finally we can point out that Boeing’s insistence of the 787-10 as the -900neo’s competitor is tactics and shall be discarded as such. The 787-10 is about 25-30 seats larger than the A330-900neo. The 787-10, then, shows better per seat efficiency but the model is rather a competitor to a A350-900 regional than a competitor to the 330neo.
 
OptimusPrime315
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:32 am

Delta Air Lines has actively put out a RFP for a replacement aircraft for their aging 744s and 763s. Delta Executives have continually said they they are not looking for a 1-to-1 replacement. This does not mean that their route system does not need a close replacement. The majority of the 744s currently fly Asian high yielding flights such as: JFK-NRT, LAX-NRT, HNL-NRT, DTW-NGO, DTW-ICN, NRT-SHA, NRT-BKK, NRT-MNL, NGO-MNL. These flights typically are full. If you look at DL's frequency percentage for Asia, they are sitting around 88%. DL's 744s carry 376 passengers, 88% is 331. But DL like anyone else will look at their potential growth over the next 25 years, let's call it a 10% increase. That is an additional 33 passengers, but add back the 12% for those high yielding days/seasons and you have 414 passengers. The plane that best fits the replacement figure for the 744s would be a 779. Also looking at product numbers for the Business travelers, this aircraft would best fit, especially since they make a lot of money off of those travelers. But an order for a 779 is not going to happen anytime soon from DL. My opinion is DL will be able to get 77W for cheap, and I personally do not believe they will be new. I think they or Boeing will be able to find some third hand 77Ws that could get them a bridge of 10-15 years before they will need to order a 77X type, maybe even both 778/779 as the additional size is not needed now. The 339 at 293, same configuration as their 3L3s (34J/32Y+/227Y) would not have the capacity to fill those routes, and the cost for more frequencies might be too high. I don't see a downgrade on those high yielding routes.

As for the 76Ws that need replacing, without knowing when the next D Check for each aircraft is, I see DL not needing to retire more than 12 or so 76Ws, aircraft 171-182, before 2020. This is also saying they'd start retiring the these birds at 27-28 years old - which could be early. Some of those already get rotated to the dessert. So currently in their flight schedules, they are not in an urgent need of replacing, especially with the additional 10 333s starting to come in next year. But lets say they need to get 10 aircraft to replace those aircraft because they need them in the rotation (as they have stated that new 333s are to be for expansion). The best aircraft available between the 338 or 339 would be 338s as the 339s will increase the available seats per flight significantly and immediately. That would bring 20 new 293 aircraft before the end of the decade-5860 seats vs. 2562 seats in loss. Just 10 339s - 2930 vs. 2562 (12 birds). Thats 13-14% increase. The growth on majority of the flights between the 76W/764/332 is probably just not there as of yet. So then the question becomes is an order of 10 338s realistic? I personally would love to see some 338s and 339s in the DL livery and to be able to fly on them, but is Airbus going to hand out a highly discounted price on just 10 or so frames? They could do a order of 20, 10 338 and 10 339s. The 339s then coming in 2025-2028 to replace the 77Es - which is when those will start to retire. But that is 10 years out, and there is no way they'd order 10 years in anticipation. But maybe they see a huge growth over the next 5 years. That's up to their forecasts. But again we are talking about Delta, they're probably the most conservative airline.

Ultimately I see the 76Ls (36J/32Y+/143Y- 211) and 76Ts (36J/29Y+/143Y - 208) being replaced with 788s (in the neighborhood of 32J/32Y+/156Y - 220 and 30J/32Y+/184Y - 246 configurations). Some of these, like I stated up above, could get a 338 with the same configuration as their 3L2s (34J/32Y+/168Y - 234). Majority of these will be needing replacement between 2020-2028.

The 76Zs (26J/29Y+/171Y - 226) being replaced by 789s (in the neighborhood of 40J/32Y+/190Y - 262 and 36J/32Y+/206Y - 274). But these 789s birds can be held off until 2022, though could show up as soon as 2020-2021.

So ultimately for this fulfillment of DL's RFP, I see Boeing finding some used 77Ws at cheap prices to replace the 744s. They then could be advancing their current order and getting a few slots between 2017-2020 of some 788s, with an additional 12 frames (on top of their original 18 on order) coming before 2025. Along with the 12 788s, you could add 20 789s with deliveries also up until 2025. This would give DL a total of 50 787s for the time being, as I could see many more coming after 2025 as they start replacing their 764s, 77Es, and 77Ls.

But you could also see a Boeing & Airbus win on the RFP. Instead of the additional 12 788s, they could 12-20 338s (12 before 2020 with additional 8 to replace later 76Ls) then 20 789s with the used 77Ws. It really comes down to which variables they really want to weigh and how they look at each flight and the best suited aircraft for those flights. So I am not sure anyone besides the DL Executives know that, but we can all have fun with our predictions.
 
bobnwa
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:04 pm

Quoting OptimusPrime315 (Reply 89):
If you look at DL's frequency percentage for Asia, they are sitting around 88%.

Please explain what "frequency percentage" means.
 
OptimusPrime315
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:24 am

bobnwa - sorry I meant Load Factor
 
cokepopper
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:25 pm

Interesting quote from Richard Anderson.
Delta might be buyer of Airbus A330neo if it is priced in the 'low
80s, high 70s'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...irlines-brief-idUSWEN00DNP20140723
 
mffoda
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting cokepopper (Reply 92):
Interesting quote from Richard Anderson.
Delta might be buyer of Airbus A330neo if it is priced in the 'low
80s, high 70s'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...40723

That would imply a discount of 70-72 percent from list price!! (A339)         
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
jetlanta
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:47 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 93):
That would imply a discount of 70-72 percent from list price!! (A339)

Which would mean it also implies they are looking at the A330CEO.
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 6:13 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 93):

Quoting cokepopper (Reply 92):
Interesting quote from Richard Anderson.
Delta might be buyer of Airbus A330neo if it is priced in the 'low
80s, high 70s'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...40723

That would imply a discount of 70-72 percent from list price!! (A339)         

I vaguely remember a thread here years ago when NW purchased their A330s that they were paying about 80 or 90 million.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 94):
Which would mean it also implies they are looking at the A330CEO.

How does that follow from saying a low neo price may make the neo attractive?
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:35 pm

Quoting cokepopper (Reply 92):
Interesting quote from Richard Anderson.
Delta might be buyer of Airbus A330neo if it is priced in the 'low
80s, high 70s'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...irlines-brief-idUSWEN00DNP20140723

That is interesting indeed. Leahy in the end could be right again.  
 
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crimsonchin
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:01 pm

Well one of the advantages of the A330NEO v 787 is that Airbus would be able to stay competitive on prices(the increased price of the NEO v the CEO is meaningless in this instance imo), so we'll see. However, those prices are much too steep though, even for "competitiveness"
 
Dalmd88
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:46 pm

Quoting PIEAvantiP180 (Reply 19):
My biggest question to all this is Delta prepared to fly their A330 fleet for the next 15 to 20 years with 3 different engine types. We know that 32 PW powered birds are owned and will fly with DL till the wings fall of, they plan to start receiving first of 10 brand new GE powered birds next year and those will be owned and not leased on a short term, and now the 330neo is RR powered. I know they have 767 with two different engine options but having tree seems like an operational nightmare.

Not really an issue. There are enough of each type when you throw in the GE powered 767 that are going to be around for awhile.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 44):
As far as I know, they have aircraft already flying with RR Trent engines. Of course they're not 7000-series, but Trents share commonality. Also, "Pay by the hour" deals on engine maintenance is very common now, which leaves engine type irrelevant as the maintenance is not done in-house.

The 777ER fleet has RR. I doubt we would do "Pay by the hour". We only outsource a couple of engine types right now and bring in high paying work on the inhouse types. The 777 engines are all out due to size. They just don't fit our test cell, plus they are small fleets. The V2500 go out because they used to be a very small fleet at DL.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus Sales Chief Thinks Delta Will Order A330NEO

Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:09 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 94):
Which would mean it also implies they are looking at the A330CEO.

Yes indeed:

Quote:
CEO Anderson's comments gives me the impression that end-of-line A330-200/300s may be priced at DL sweet spot

http://twitter.com/e_russell/status/491955537647775744
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