Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):

I sincerely hope you are not doing a happy dance, planemaker.

Get the engines on, get the planes back in the air, and let's see who these other interested airlines are, whom are waiting for the planes to fly again.

$ # ! T T Y that the engine incident happened, but I am still greatful it was on the ground, and not in the air.

Will the CSeries be successful in the long run? I believe they will. Will they hit the same number of airframes that the CRJ's have? I guess we will have to see over the next two decades.

Pleeease hurry up Bombardier! I cycle along the BMA airport fence to and from work. Tired of just seeing AVROs.
I will for sure move within 2 years, and I have a feeling my girlfriend not will accept living close to an airport again. If the plane will be more delayed I might never experience a C-series taking off a few meters over my head while I'm on way to work on a Monday morning. Or try to on a bike to outrun a taxiing C-series.
I wonder if the Bombardier execs are aware of this really serious situation?  

[Edited 2014-08-30 08:57:52]

A positive response by BBD in The Canadian Press:

Quote: Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) spokesman Marc Duchesne played down the impact of Braathens' decision, saying such moves are the norm in the industry. "They (companies) change business plans and therefore need different planes and at different dates," he said in an interview. Duchesne said it had "never been confirmed in writing" that Malmo was to be the first airline to receive a CSeries plane. "We're thinking of other airlines to take delivery of the first plane," he said, without mentioning whether any had shown interest in doing so. He added that test flights on the CSeries should resume over the "next few weeks" and that things are "going really well."

I think that FTV2 will indeed fly next week. So far Sylvain Faust has been pretty much on the point with the BBD Aero VP exodus. He even broke the news for many of them. He definitely seems to have good sources, and sounds pretty confident that the engines are arriving this weekend, and FTV2 will be flown next week.

Opinoin piece in Aviation Week by Richard Aboulafia:

Opinion: Bombardier's Uncertain Future
Spring and summer setbacks leave many open questions about the airframer’s direction

He repeats speculation that has increasingly been popping up... the BBD reorg might be a precursor to a unit sale (the Chinese are again a speculation - they make everyone's list)...

Quote: Bombardier’s new organization divides its aerospace division into three units: business aircraft, commercial aircraft, and aerostructures and engineering services. If, as some have theorized, the reorganization is intended to allow Bombardier the option of selling its commercial unit, then there’s the big question of who would be able to buy it and keep the CSeries going. China is the only apparent possibility, but that country has no track record of ever paying for meaningful aviation intellectual property and has had ample opportunity to acquire it in the past.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 54): Opinion

Quoting planemaker (Reply 54): Richard Aboulafia

Quoting planemaker (Reply 54): He repeats

Quoting planemaker (Reply 54): speculation

So nothing new here  

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 55): So nothing new here

The information should be nothing new to those actively following the program... but people can always surprise you.  

I have no idea how Aboulafia ever become an 'expert' in anything. If he has ever had an original thought, he has kept it to himself. In this case, he's about 2 weeks behind the news and his speculation is as original as tuna salad. The only time he gets a headline is when he, (usually incorrectly), predicts the demise of some program or another.

His only talent is convincing bored reporters with impending deadlines of his expertise. He's as persistent as a Kardashian and just as relevant to anything aeronautical.

On his best day, he's a load of tepid air.

Quoting planewasted (Reply 51): Pleeease hurry up Bombardier!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rator-backs-away/article20279310/'

Quote: Bombardier Inc. will have to find another CSeries jet buyer to become the troubled plane’s first operator after Sweden’s Braathens Aviation AB said it’s seeking changes to its delivery schedule. “We have informed Bombardier that we will not assume the role of formal launch operator,” Braathens, a buyer of 10 of the jets, said today in a quarterly filing. “Due to increased uncertainty we are discussing other possible changes to the aircraft delivery schedule with Bombardier.”

However I don't know how reliable that newspaper is.

[Edited 2014-09-02 10:50:31]

Even a terrible business person will know that selling while your product and value are low is a ridiculous concept. Even if BBD did want to sell while value was low, I doubt the Canadian government would allow the sale of am aviation related business to China.

More likely, they're in a bad spell so they're restructuring, like many companies do.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 57): If he has ever had an original thought, he has kept it to himself.

Not original? Unlike everyone else who has been drinking the CSeries kool aid, his "orignal" call on the CSeries has been proven correct. And it is only recently that with the obvious turmoil at BBD that the press (and many a.netters) has come around to his point of view.  

Quoting planemaker (Reply 60): "orignal" call

"Orignal" is French for "moose".

Quoting planemaker (Reply 60):

He hasn't had anything remotely like an original thought on the CSeries. He has followed the pack with the obvious concerns about the program, but has added nothing new. He waits for a slow news day to chicken little the program, giving his 'analyst credentials' the best chance of grabbing headlines.

His most common mantra of 'needs more sales' is painfully unimaginative. So far, his cries of doom for the CSeries program, (which he dredges up every few months), haven't been borne out...at least not yet.

Has the CSeries program failed? No. Could it? Sure, it's possible. Could the restructuring lead to the sale of parts of BBD? Not likely...(the possibility of which was brought up the day of the restructuring...with Abby jumping on that concept a few weeks later), but possible.

He has been singing the same song for years...yet the program keeps chugging along.

So what we have is the status quo; The company exists, the CSeries program continues, sales could be better but current sales hardly spell doom for the program, the current delays obviously affect the program but they are hardly the fault of BBD, (after all, they didn't design the engines), and life goes on.

Original? No...not even close.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 62): He has followed the pack with the obvious concerns about the program

He has been ringing the "alarm bells" on the CSeries from the very start while everyone else was drinking the BBD kool aid that all was just fine.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 62): yet the program keeps chugging along.

  

"...Mr. Murray said he expects Swiss International Air Lines, a subsidiary of Deutsche Lufthansa AG, would replace Braathens as the launch customer.

Swiss has the technical capability that Bombardier would want to see in a launch customer, he said, and Lufthansa’s CityLine was the launch customer for the CRJ in 1992. Swiss did not respond to a request for comment.

Bombardier would not provide any details.

“We have a good idea of who’s going to be the first operator of the aircraft but we’re not ready to disclose that,” Mr. Duchesne said....".

From Financial Post

Quoting rikkus67 (Reply 64): "...Mr. Murray said he expects Swiss International Air Lines, a subsidiary of Deutsche Lufthansa AG,

I would hope so... they have skin in the game.

FYI, according to Sylvain Faust, FTV2 engines have arrived at YMX on friday.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 54): Chinese are again a speculation - they make everyone's list

The only thing the Chinese are interested in is technology and knowledge transfer. They are not interested in managing and learning to manage western enterprises. Furthermore BBD's commercial aircraft portfolio does not suit the needs of China. Putting it simply, an RJ in China is B777. That is where they want to go. But to get there, they need more knowledge, not more small airplane programs.

So what Bombardier is doing is preparing its show room with four (to be) standalone businesses. They need to sell some assets as their balance sheet is deteriorating, but to sell one of these businesses as a whole within the next year will be difficult.

1) Train Business: I don't think they will sell it for two reasons. First, no one wants this business. GE wants Alstom's power gen business, but not interested in trains. It is a low margin business and in Europe's Ansaldo is now on sale by its Italian owner (Finm.). Second, Bombardier is bidding for Ansaldo's signaling business, so that would mean they want to invest even more in their Transportation portfolio.

2) Business Aircraft: This is their family jewel. But given that they have the G7/G8 in development where they will likely partition a great deal of the engineering of that business to their Aerostructures and Engineering business, it is not ready to sell it as a whole just yet. But I do see an opportunity to sell Learjet. It has a great brand, and perhaps Honda or some equity investors might be interested (provided they have the right management).

3) Commercial Aircraft: Here I see some quick assets sale opportunities. No not China or Russia. I think those options are gone for obvious reasons. But I do see countries like Indonesia or India willing to buy the CRJ or Q400 portfolios. They have been eager to start their own home grown commercial aircraft business but have failed over the decades. Instead of building brick by brick, perhaps they may buy the Q400 and/or CRJ business.

4) Engineering Services and Aerostructures: I am not too sure exactly what this one will be. But it has no value for the near term other than tremendous opportunities. BBD has quite a bit of engineering know-how that they can also sell. BBD has quite a bit of unused manufacturing capacity which they can make parts for Boeing and Airbus. They need to find markets, and this will take time.

So what I see in the near term is bits and pieces of each business unit if there are buyers. I do not see the CSeries program for sale as that program has more potential in the long term than the Q400 and the CRJs. Plus no one wants a half baked product.

Also, if they sell the Q400 program, the de Havilland site is a real estate gold mine given its proximity to the downtown core and the sky rocketing real estate prices. Yes, they have their hands tied with the Ontario government on that site, but they have other levers (they have 2 site in Ontario Kingston and Thunder Bay in their transit business which they can transfer investment and jobs).

[Edited 2014-09-02 18:33:05]

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 67): 4) Engineering Services and Aerostructures: I am not too sure exactly what this one will be.

4 facilities: Saint-Laurent (plant 1), Belfast, Queretaro and Morroco, about 12 000 employees.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 67): Also, if they sell the Q400 program, the de Havilland site is a real estate gold mine given its proximity to the downtown core and the sky rocketing real estate prices.

It will not happen, the Q400 FAL is a small part of this plant, the Global family FAL is a lot bigger.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 60): Not original? Unlike everyone else who has been drinking the CSeries kool aid, his "orignal" call on the CSeries has been proven correct. And it is only recently that with the obvious turmoil at BBD that the press (and many a.netters) has come around to his point of view

Quoting planemaker (Reply 63): He has been ringing the "alarm bells" on the CSeries from the very start while everyone else was drinking the BBD kool aid that all was just fine

It just occurred to me, the similarities are astonishing . . . he must be CaptainX !
https://www.airliners.net/profile/captainx

I guess you were a big fan of this CaptainX.

Quoting queb (Reply 68): It will not happen, the Q400 FAL is a small part of this plant, the Global family FAL is a lot bigger.

You are right about the Gloabl final assembly line in Toronto. But to me the writing is on the wall. Step 1 is to push the Q400 out; either by production elsewhere (was supposed to be Russia), and Step 2 they are moving the headquarters of Commercial Aircraft to Montreal (used to be vastly Toronto based). So the Toronto operations are thinning out bit by bit.

Given the CRJ production is about 30 planes at best, the Dorval plant has extra capacity. Moving the Global FAL to Quebec is operationally very viable, but yes they will have legal and union issues to deal with. Again that land in Toronto is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. They need that kind of money to improve their liquidity and pay down some of that huge debt that will mature soon.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 70): headquarters of Commercial Aircraft to Montreal

The headquarters is already in Montreal (since the beginning)

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 70): Given the CRJ production is about 30 planes at best

50 this year and about 40 next year.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 70): the Dorval plant has extra capacity.

There's no extra-capacity at Dorval plant, CL605 and CL350 are doing very well (CRJ's are assembled at Mirabel plant and you can be sure there's no extra capacity at YMX.)

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 70): Moving the Global FAL to Quebec is operationally very viable

Possible but very unlikely, BBD will need to build a new plant in Mtl and Downsview plant just start the production of the Global 7000/8000.

Quoting queb (Reply 71): The headquarters is already in Montreal (since the beginning)

I don't think so. Most of the marketing, admin, support functions were still in TO until the last few years. It is the legacy of the Regional Aircraft Division.

Quoting queb (Reply 71): 50 this year and about 40 next year.

Oh really? How many did they deliver last year? and the year before that? and what is the backlog...the real backlog?

Quoting queb (Reply 71): There's no extra-capacity at Dorval plant, CL605 and CL350 are doing very well (CRJ's are assembled at Mirabel plant and you can be sure there's no extra capacity at YMX.)

CRJ's are completed (paint and interiors) in Mirabel. They are assembled in Dorval. They have lot's of capacity to bring in the GX FAL to Dorval if they wanted to. With its proximity to the Completion Center, it only makes the overall bottom line numbers better.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 72): CRJ's are completed (paint and interiors) in Mirabel. They are assembled in Dorval. They have lot's of capacity to bring in the YUL plant. They will deliver more than 80 Challenger this year and the Global production is about the same. Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 72): I don't think so. Most of the marketing, admin, support functions were still in TO until the last few years. It is the legacy of the Regional Aircraft Division. All BBD's aircraft design work including Global family and Learjet 85 is now done at Bombardier Product Development Centre at Saint-Laurent, BBD Aerospace headquarters is just between Chalenger plant and Global completion center (400 Côte-Vertu West) http://www.bombardier.com/en/worldwi...e-type=all&f-contact-type=all#work Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 72): Oh really? How many did they deliver last year? and the year before that? and what is the backlog...the real backlog? And after more than 10 years for BBD, I now work for a BBD supplier and the actual CRJ production rate is about 5 per month (thanks to american carriers for the help). Here is the BBD Aero headquarters, you can see the Global center (now a lot bigger) to the left and a part of the Challenger plant to the right)

[Edited 2014-09-03 19:43:02]

Quoting queb (Reply 73): And after more than 10 years for BBD, I now work for a BBD supplier and the actual CRJ production rate is about 5 per month (thanks to american carriers for the help).

it will not last long, given current baklog

Quoting apruzesse13 (Reply 74): it will not last long, given current baklog

obviously but it's the actual production rate.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 44): Conceivably, the AA retirements could be a decent source of canablized parts as well. They currently have ~160. As we have discussed previously, if we even approach Pilarski's prediction we could see the MD-80's for a while yet.

At DL we could. Those that buy used MD-80s will have parts. I would be surprised if DL doesn't buy used AMR frames for parts or even to operate a few. DL has so much flexibility in fleet planing... They decide who they dance with (buy new aircraft from), and to some degree when.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 44): For a while it seemed that it was just me and Aboulafia out there telling people not to swallow BBD's "dog & pony shows", but others are coming around...

Sigh... Reminding me I was on the wrong side of that debate?  

I expected delays (at least I wasn't blind to that...), but this is getting bad...


Lightsaber

After many executive changes that took place last months to the CSeries program, as the replacement of the vice president of marketing and other officials. BBD said additional changes might be forthcoming. Clear signal that something more is afoot. What should we aspect?
They are also strengthening their commercial activity in Africa and Latino America opening a new base in Brazil.
Don't you think that moving out from the scope-clause market, the future will be far from US?

Quoting queb (Reply 73): CRJ's are completed (paint and interiors) in Mirabel. They are assembled in Dorval.

Nope, CRJ700, 900 and 1000 are fully assembled, painted and outfitted in Mirabel. Dorval takes care of Challengers 300/600 series, Challenger 850 (CRJ200 in biz config), plus the Globals paint/interiors. It used to do full CRJ100/200 assembly a while back.

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 78): Quoting queb (Reply 73): CRJ's are completed (paint and interiors) in Mirabel. They are assembled in Dorval.

You quote the wrong guy  

I'm not sure about now, but a few years ago Dash8/Q400 and even Globals had some outfitting done in Toronto/YYZ at the north end of the airport in the general aviation area. I remember seeing a few different coast guard and airline planes in the hangars. I would quite often see Globals in with no paint and only the registration and build numbers for a few days or a week, and then they were gone. My photos were even rejected from a.net, even though they were unique!

Anyways, not sure if they still have that space but I figured it might be worth mentioning.

Quoting queb (Reply 79): You quote the wrong guy

Indeed, my bad

[Edited 2014-09-04 12:17:09]

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 78): Nope, CRJ700, 900 and 1000 are fully assembled, painted and outfitted in Mirabel. Dorval takes care of Challengers 300/600 series, Challenger 850 (CRJ200 in biz config), plus the Globals paint/interiors. It used to do full CRJ100/200 assembly a while back.

Thanks for the correction, but it does not change the point I was making that there is plenty of capacity to assemble all the Globals in Dorval. Back when they were pushing out close to 20 CRJ200s in late 90's in that plant and making Challengers clearly indicates that the CL300/600 and GX's can be assembled in Dorval. They used to deliver over 200 planes a year out of that plant. The GX and Challenger combines deliveries are less than what that plant can produce. Bottom lines is that Bombardier has excess capacity and they need to rationalize, sell aerostructures (now the new product they want to sell more of), and sell assets.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 82): Thanks for the correction, but it does not change the point I was making that there is plenty of capacity to assemble all the Globals in Dorval. Back when they were pushing out close to 20 CRJ200s in late 90's in that plant and making Challengers clearly indicates that the CL300/600 and GX's can be assembled in Dorval. They used to deliver over 200 planes a year out of that plant.

The CRJ200 FAL has been replaced by CL350/605 interior completion lines, which were made by the Global completion center before their big production ramp-up. Bizjet interior completion needs more room, more workers than an FAL , you need about three times more positions on the completion line to follow the FAL.

Interesting read if you have 5 spare mins. Could well be written by Planemaker  http://aviationdoctor.wordpress.com/...hs-after-launch-has-surpassed-5-y/

CSeries "very close" to flying again:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...dier-cseries-idUSL1N0R52TP20140904

FTV2 with new engines spotted outside:



http://twitter.com/sylvainfaust/status/507890723480678400/photo/1

Specifically, Sylvain says the flight should be on Sunday.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 84): nteresting read if you have 5 spare mins. Could well be written by Planemaker

Could have been... but wasn't. He obviously took notes of my posts.  

He was missing an order analysis (he just briefly touches orders/LOIs) and the sales dynamic vs. A & B, which I have gone into detail in several posts.

BTW, he wrote that article just after Farnborough. WIll be interesting to see what he comes out with next in light of the additional changes/developments.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 88): Could have been... but wasn't. He obviously took notes of my posts. He was missing an order analysis (he just briefly touches orders/LOIs) and the sales dynamic vs. A & B, which I have gone into detail in several posts. BTW, he wrote that article just after Farnborough. WIll be interesting to see what he comes out with next in light of the additional changes/developments.

Are you hoping to be right about all of your BBD commentary; as in do you really hate/despise this aircraft? Or do you prefer the role as prophet of doom within the armchair CEO role?

My own words (though limited on a.net these days) has always been the same on CSeries...keep the nose to the grindstone and you will develop something that people will want. I think that this aircraft has some ways to go in regards improvement and stretch etc. However it will get there if the hard work and dedication to the airframe and engines continues.

Is it late? Yes. Is it probably overweight right now? Probably. How much more efficient is it going to be in it's class once ironed out...well you don't know nor does anybody else know on this forum...

Time will only tell Planemaker; so unless you are sitting in a comfy leather chair somewhere in YMX maybe you should look at every other single major project (non-av & av) in the world to see how new technology is challenging all of these projects. It's what happens...I still hope that for a company like BBD that this plane is a success and something that the company quite literally grow with. I hope for the people who have put endless of hours of their own lives into this that it is a success...both technically and commercially.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 86): FTV2 with new engines spotted outside:

That's just great news! Will there be / Can we expect an extension to the flight test program due to "new" engines? Where has it left off before the incident, somewhere around 340h?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 76):

I hate to keep harping on it, but this last delay is all on Pratt. BBD's only responsibility is that they chose the engine maker. They have every right to take as long as they think they need to be completely confident in the reliability of the engines. After all, Pratt said they were fine before, and they turned out to be wrong...so their caution is entirely justified.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 86):

Say it isn't so. Aren't they supposed to be ignominiously parked in the weeds forever?

Why hasn't BBD painted FTV2 since flight test activity was halted ?

FTV1 undergoing repairs, first time Bombardier released such photo:



(via @sylvainfaust)

Quoting Quantos (Reply 87): Specifically, Sylvain says the flight should be on Sunday.

New engines switched on yesterday. If the weather was nice here today I'm sure it would have flown today, but very overcast with strong winds and storms a possibility at the moment. Here's hoping Sunday is the day.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 91): I hate to keep harping on it, but this last delay is all on Pratt

Mostly yes, though I suspect that BBD FBW software engineers welcome every extra day they can get. So I can see some incentive there for BBD to extend the delay that hey can "blame" on P&WC. Or to stretch that delay by asking extra questions, double/triple checking P&WC claims, and get the quality department to do extra audits on products and processes before accepting the proposed fixes.
I’d imagine that if BBD was fully ready, they could perhaps reduce the P&WC induced delay, by allowing some overlap in processes, where they may now insist that these are completed in serial sequence.

I do not see this as a black and white thing; there is always some grey area. Thing is, we, the public, will never now the exact shades of grey.

Rgds,
PW100

Quoting PW100 (Reply 95):

I really don't think 3 months is very long. This isn't some bandaid fixup. Pratt had to diagnose, not only the failure, but the root cause of the failure. Then, they had to see whether or not this problem was common to the entire GTF family, (it seems so). They had to engineer, not only a fix, (for the engines already built), but a permanent redesign, which affects all engines currently made plus the production line.

After all this, Pratt had to test the hell out of the engines for every fix design...(and there was probably more than one), to satisfy not only themselves but BBD and the regulators as well.

All that in just over 3 months. Of course BBD used the time, hopefully wisely, to their advantage but that doesn't mean they covertly extended the delay.

I say kudos to Pratt for getting the engines back on the airframes as quickly as they did.

I hope we get the whole story on the repairs to FTV1. That could prove to be some pretty interesting reading.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 76): At DL we could. Those that buy used MD-80s will have parts. I would be surprised if DL doesn't buy used AMR frames for parts or even to operate a few.

AA was planning to retire ~95-105 MD-80's by 2016, so certainly an opportunity for DL to at least score some parts.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 76): DL has so much flexibility in fleet planing... They decide who they dance with (buy new aircraft from), and to some degree when.

Indeed DL believes it has a LOT of flexibility. Richard Anderson thinks:

Quote: “There's going to be a huge bubble in narrowbodies, so those residual values are going to plummet, which is going to be a great buying opportunity for a carrier like Delta"

Obviously, Anderson likes to bargain shop.  
.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 89): Are you hoping to be right about all of your BBD commentary

I've not had to "hope".

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 84): Interesting read if you have 5 spare mins. Could well be written by Planemaker http://aviationdoctor.wordpress.com/...hs-after-launch-has-surpassed-5-y/

Who's payroll is that blogger on? A,B or E? He had about as much spin as a used car salesman.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 96): I really don't think 3 months is very long. This isn't some bandaid fixup.

I agree, an engine is as complicated as the airframe with all its systems. 3 months is prett good when compared to a B787 battery fix   

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 96): I say kudos to Pratt for getting the engines back on the airframes as quickly as they did.

Agreed, But I hope Pratt has some serious lessons learned here because one more mishap will be damaging to Pratt as tentative A320neo's sales with Pratt engines could be lost, or even worse more GE engines B737MAX sales. They need to get this right as a lot is riding on this fix.

As for BBD, I wish them the best. Get some sales and keep thinking about the 150 plus seat sectors for future CSeries family as that is where the real prize is.

[Edited 2014-09-06 19:11:49]