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nikeson13
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:40 am

The CSeries will flourish after getting in service, at least i hope. I think with a little user feedback and the spreading of word that its a great air craft it will do well and get some more orders from smaller carriers . But thats just my feeling.  
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Thenoflyzone
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:44 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 101):

That flightglobal article mentions that one customer has requested ETOPS 120 on it's CSeries. Anyone know which operator that is?
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Paolo92
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:42 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 107):
That flightglobal article mentions that one customer has requested ETOPS 120 on it's CSeries. Anyone know which operator that is?

I would expect that to be either Odyssey or PrivatAir.
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lostsound
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:49 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 107):
That flightglobal article mentions that one customer has requested ETOPS 120 on it's CSeries. Anyone know which operator that is?

That would be Odyssey Airlines, a potential all-business class operator based at London City Centre. They are aiming to fly their product from London to other city airports in thriving metropolises.

http://www.flyody.com

[Edited 2015-08-23 07:50:22]
 
planemaker
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:24 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 105):
What are the chances that the Quebec and/or Federal governments find a legit angle (like through their pension funds) and buy out the outstanding Class B shares at about $2 and become partners (until things get sorted out with Bombardoier) with the Class A shares owned by the Bombardier family? Kind of like the auto industry bail out. I mean a legit angle so that there will be no fuss with subsidy/trade legalities. Maybe there is something in the works to drive the stock way down so that it will be a lesser burden on tax payers, and the investment bankers will get their share of the transaction (wink wink).

I see where you are going. Unfortunately, with a national election going on the timing would be off. Shares have dropped a bit more to $1.15 but hit an intra-day low of $1.09. Hence the article: Bombardier struggles to avoid penny-stock status.

Imagine the institutional investors that bought in at $2.21 in February.
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:09 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 110):
with a national election going on the timing would be off.

True. There is still time to wait after the election and also see where things stand at Bombardier.

One thing is for sure. Even after the CSeries enters service, vast amount of money will be required to support the fleet with teething problems and resolve reliability issues with the suppliers. Cash burn will hold steady along with the G7/8 development programs.

Having said all that, I think they will pull in a couple of quality CSeries orders by the end of the year.
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:34 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 111):
Even after the CSeries enters service, vast amount of money will be required to support the fleet with teething problems and resolve reliability issues with the suppliers. Cash burn will hold steady along with the G7/8 development programs.

Production ramp up also costs money. It takes several years for a new program to break even and to generate positive cash.
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:32 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
Production ramp up also costs money. It takes several years for a new program to break even and to generate positive cash.

Most of the Production Ramp up Money (building/machinery/labor) should be spent by now.
Cseries should be cash flow positive (customer cash deposit > cost of production) once they hit about 10+ frames/Quarter. That is still far from generating profit on the Cseries program as a whole, but positive cash flow should't be too far away.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 111):
One thing is for sure. Even after the CSeries enters service, vast amount of money will be required to support the fleet with teething problems and resolve reliability issues with the suppliers.

With the exception of a few early Cseries aircraft, aircraft support should be net cash positive, and should not be a drain on the Cseries program.

However, all bets are off if something catastrophic happens, which is very very unlikely.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:20 am

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 113):
With the exception of a few early Cseries aircraft, aircraft support should be net cash positive, and should not be a drain on the Cseries program.

Let me start off by saying that I think the CSeries aircraft will perform very well over the long run. That includes all the promises they made like, runway performance, range, payload, noise, fuel burn, and even reliability. But to think that such an all new clean sheet aircraft and engine combination would not have teething problems during the first two years is naive. Let's not forget the B787 and A380 electrical and structural issues. Depending on how contracts are written, airlines will claim compensation if technical reliability targets are not met. Suppliers are another issue depending on the problem if design changes are required. Airlines will be watching how Bombardier will do in this aspect as the CSeries is a mainline airplane and they expect Boeing and Airbus support $tandard$.
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:28 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 114):
Let me start off by saying that I think the CSeries aircraft will perform very well over the long run. That includes all the promises they made like, runway performance, range, payload, noise, fuel burn, and even reliability. But to think that such an all new clean sheet aircraft and engine combination would not have teething problems during the first two years is naive. Let's not forget the B787 and A380 electrical and structural issues. Depending on how contracts are written, airlines will claim compensation if technical reliability targets are not met. Suppliers are another issue depending on the problem if design changes are required. Airlines will be watching how Bombardier will do in this aspect as the CSeries is a mainline airplane and they expect Boeing and Airbus support $tandard$.

That is certainly true. But as soon as they start delivering, cash will start to flow, which is what they've been waiting for a long time. That will make a huge difference to their general cash flow (in spite of initial technical support).
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:11 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 114):
Let's not forget the B787 and A380 electrical and structural issues. Depending on how contracts are written, airlines will claim compensation if technical reliability targets are not met. Suppliers are another issue depending on the problem if design changes are required. Airlines will be watching how Bombardier will do in this aspect as the CSeries is a mainline airplane and they expect Boeing and Airbus support $tandard$.

This is what i meant by something catastrophic. I think chances of that happening to Csereis is lower than 787/380 as those were pushing the limit for new tech/size as well as testing the limit for subcontracting. C-series is not pushing much except for the Engine and the composite wing.

The engine is not the responsibility of Bombardier.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:17 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 116):
This is what i meant by something catastrophic. I think chances of that happening to Csereis is lower than 787/380 as those were pushing the limit for new tech/size as well as testing the limit for subcontracting. C-series is not pushing much except for the Engine and the composite wing.

The C-series is pushing things for Bombardier however, which is a much smaller company than Airbus or Boeing. The CRJ-1000 was delayed because of software issues relating to the FBW rudder control system (hardly new groundbreaking tech in 2009) and lets not forget this new C-series that apparently isn't pushing any tech limit is going to be entering service over 2 years later than planned (in larger part due to, surprise surprise, software issues and not the engine or composite wing). In fact, the gap between first flight and certification is already longer on the C-series than the 787. Needless to say, it is clear that software development is one of Bombardier's Achilles heels- something A and B are both better at. That, and not structural or electrical issues, is likely where Bombardier is likely going to be running into most of their teething problems- and it has the potential to be "catastrophic" just the 787/A380.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 116):
The engine is not the responsibility of Bombardier.

But Bombardier still suffers the consequences from any P&W screwups.

[Edited 2015-08-27 09:19:25]
 
mpsrent
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:14 pm

AirInsight has a really good article providing a current update on program development.

http://airinsight.com/2015/08/21/c-s...ies-program-update-with-rob-dewar/

Some key points include:

- As of August 18, the program was at 82% of the certification program with 2,250 of 2,400 hours logged.
- On August 18 the entire fleet of 6 aircraft were in flight accumulating 20.5 hours in one day.
- P1, the first production aircraft is painted and having it's interior installed. It will be added to the fleet soon.
- The fleet is running at 98.5% reliability.
- The wing tests outperformed expectations.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:21 pm

Quoting mpsrent (Reply 118):
In fact, the gap between first flight and certification is already longer on the C-series than the 787. Needless to say, it is clear that software development is one of Bombardier's Achilles heels- something A and B are both better at. That, and not structural or electrical issues, is likely where Bombardier is likely going to be running into most of their teething problems- and it has the potential to be "catastrophic" just the 787/A380.

Shouldn't most of the major the software problems/bugs/glitches get discovered during the Design/certification process ?
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm

Quoting polot (Reply 117):
The C-series is pushing things for Bombardier however, which is a much smaller company than Airbus or Boeing. The CRJ-1000 was delayed because of software issues relating to the FBW rudder control system (hardly new groundbreaking tech in 2009) and lets not forget this new C-series that apparently isn't pushing any tech limit is going to be entering service over 2 years later than planned (in larger part due to, surprise surprise, software issues and not the engine or composite wing). In fact, the gap between first flight and certification is already longer on the C-series than the 787

let me jump in before planemaker seconds your thoughts and posts a link to some article predicting that BBD will implode and cause a tsunami that wipes the entire eastern seaboard off the map...

it has to be kept in context... the fbw system may not have been particularly novel in the larger scheme, but it was an advance for BBD, was it not? glitches might be expected.

and don't forget that a part of the delay was caused by the engine issue...
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:30 pm

Bombardier has released pictures of the recent water ingestion test that was done with FTV7,
One of the more impressive certification tests that are done.

http://news.commercialaircraft.bomba...-it-up/#/c-series/category/photos/

YULspotter
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:52 pm

Quoting mpsrent (Reply 118):
- The fleet is running at 98.5% reliability

Not sure how that's measured, so a lot of caveats, but that number does seem to be in A350 territory in this stage of the program.
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:11 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 119):
Shouldn't most of the major the software problems/bugs/glitches get discovered during the Design/certification process ?

Yes, most of them should. But at the end of the day there will always be glitches that go through, or else new planes wouldn't have teething problems. Bombardier is only replicating airline operations at best, they are not actually performing airline operations, and having hundreds of airline pilots (who don't fully know the plane/software inside and out like the back of their hand like Bombardier's test engineers) results in unexpected and undiscovered glitches all the time.

Quoting YYZYYT (Reply 120):
it has to be kept in context... the fbw system may not have been particularly novel in the larger scheme, but it was an advance for BBD, was it not? glitches might be expected.

That was my point. AirbusCanada was arguing since the FBW system and most of the other tech is not novel the C series is not as risk of "catastrophic" issues like the 787/A380 were after EIS. I was pointing out that it is novel for Bombardier, so there is still the risk that things can go wrong.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 122):
Not sure how that's measured, so a lot of caveats, but that number does seem to be in A350 territory in this stage of the program.

It is also meaningless, as Bombardier is not running them in any way an airline would. An entire fleet of 6 aircraft accumulating 20.5 hrs in one day (which Bombardier deems noteworthy, so not something they have been doing every day) is less than 3.5 hrs an aircraft on average. Bombardier is not flying the planes 3 hours, turning them around in 30-40 minutes, flying another 1.5 hours, turning around in 30-40 mins, running another 2.5 hours etc. 200 flight hours a month, which is what they are typically getting now, is ~6.66 hrs a day for one plane. LX and the others are going to work the planes harder than that.

[Edited 2015-08-27 12:12:31]
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:32 am

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 119):
Shouldn't most of the major the software problems/bugs/glitches get discovered during the Design/certification process ?

That's correct. Software glitches are more quickly identified that hardware design that stay dormant much longer. Software issues are in your face and are not only recognized much more earlier, but can be resolved much quicker.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 116):
C-series is not pushing much except for the Engine and the composite wing.

Bombardier has never built an aircraft this size with wing mounted engine configuration. Everything is new from structure to landing gear, flaps slats, electrical, you name it. My understanding is that only the APU is a model that is already used. I am not trying to rain on BBD, but there will be issues that will require redesign. That is almost guaranteed.

Quoting rbrunner (Reply 115):
But as soon as they start delivering, cash will start to flow

I hope so, and I hope those early launch customers did not pay overly discounted prices.
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KarelXWB
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:25 am

Always amazing to see water ingestion tests.


Getting Wet! Bombardier C Series BD500-1A11 CS300 FTV7 C-FFDK by Patrick Cardinal, on Flickr
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r2rho
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:49 pm

Quoting polot (Reply 117):
it is clear that software development is one of Bombardier's Achilles heels- something A and B are both better at. That, and not structural or electrical issues, is likely where Bombardier is likely going to be running into most of their teething problems-

Agree and very well summarized. BBD is really treading into a lot of new territory for them, and should be lauded for it. They have never integrated aircraft systems at this level of complexity. AFAIK it is the first time they built an aircraft0 test rig of the kind and complexity that A&B do. They must be learning a lot of new things for them.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 119):
Shouldn't most of the major the software problems/bugs/glitches get discovered during the Design/certification process ?

Should, yes. And all certification-related ones certainly are. But there are always some glitches that remain, some things that need to be optimized, etc. The things discovered during the very last phase of flight test will likely not be resolved by EIS, but be part of the first post-EIS software update. And further updates will come, as on every aircraft program. The key is, how many of those early glitches will affect operational reliability.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:39 pm

The one thing BBD needs to avoid is a PR disaster like the 787's battery issues were. Sure there will probably be teething issues, but avoiding highly publicized issues that ground planes or even cause emergency landings/diversions is the key.
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:56 am

Quoting YYZYYT (Reply 120):
let me jump in before planemaker seconds your thoughts and posts a link to some article predicting that BBD will implode and cause a tsunami that wipes the entire eastern seaboard off the map...

Never prognosticated a tsunami but I am close to 100% on my BBD analysis going back many years now.  
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jalarner
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:13 pm

Interesting updates....

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/maks-russian-lessor-close-to-re-affirming-cseries-d-416058/
and
http://business.financialpost.com/ne...ussian-client-nears-financing-deal

(not sure why first link won't work)
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golfradio
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting jalarner (Reply 129):

I was going to post that last week. I think the nugget in that flight global article is that after Le Bourget, suddenly there was interest in private bankers to finance the airplane.
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
golfradio
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:08 pm

Quoting jalarner (Reply 129):

The software here does not like secure URLs. Always post the unsecured URL (drop the 's' from https)

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-re-affirming-cseries-deal-416058/
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:09 pm

Bombardier proved early they need a new process for fly by wire. Too many delays there.

Quoting mpsrent (Reply 118):

Interesting update, thank you.

Quoting golfradio (Reply 130):

OK, but why are they re- affirming?

Lightsaber
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:29 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 132):
Bombardier proved early they need a new process for fly by wire. Too many delays there.

The important things are that the major FBW problems seem to have been solved and they did use the time flying in direct mode to take care of their envelope testing, which can't be done in normal mode with flight protection.

They definitely lost time with their FWB issues but it didn't seem to interfere too much with their flight testing.
What the...?
 
mpsrent
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:16 am

According to AirInsight Bombardier has hit the 2,400 certification hours.

http://airinsight.com/2015/09/01/c-s...ght-test-update-august/#more-11835

They now move into self-directed hours of their choosing.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:08 am

Quoting mpsrent (Reply 134):
According to AirInsight Bombardier has hit the 2,400 certification hours.

Those flights include the CS300, I thought CS100 alone needed 2,400 certification hours?
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queb
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:13 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 135):
Those flights include the CS300

No, CS100 flight hours only.

http://airinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/2015-08-31_15-36-04.jpg
 
Aviaponcho
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:33 am

Reading various reports recently makes me feel that the delayed EIS to H1 2016 is only due to the lack of launch airline till recently. CS100 birds can be ready quicker than Swiss can be.
A end of 2015 EIS could have been possible with a trully motivated launch airline !
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:59 am

Quoting queb (Reply 136):
No, CS100 flight hours only.

Hmm I would swear that AirInsight included the CS300 before.

Anyway, 2,400 hours means Bombardier can now apply for type certification.
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LSZH34
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:12 am

Quoting aviaponcho (Reply 137):
A end of 2015 EIS could have been possible with a trully motivated launch airline !

I disagree. LX is extremely motivated to get this plane ASAP. Their Avros are falling apart and nowadays it's even quite common to see an Avro returning back to ZRH because of a technical failure. Swiss can't wait to get their hands on this plane. They just wanted to avoid the teething problems that come with a clean sheet design and therefore didn't want to commit as Launch Customer. But LX now has no time to wait and are eagerly awaiting this plane like I already mentioned. A "demotivated" airline is certainly not the reason for a late EIS.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:30 pm

LSZH34
I should have been more accurate.
The decision for BBD and Swiss that Swiss was the launch airline was made public quite recently (http://www.bombardier.com/en/media-centre/newsList/details.swiss-revealed-asfirstairlineintheworldtotakedeliveryandoperatet.bombardiercom.html). it should have been decided a while ago
But as Swiss was not supposed to be the launch airline, it's schedule for various key decisions (LOPA, training...) might not have allowed to speed the EIS.
It seems to me that there's almost a trimester gap between certification and EIS
We'll see
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:42 pm

Quoting aviaponcho (Reply 140):

Yeah now I see your point and I agree with you on that. Atleast the program is now progressing and EIS is not far away anymore.
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:04 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 138):
Anyway, 2,400 hours means Bombardier can now apply for type certification.

I'm not sure if that is entirely correct.

The 2400 hrs is not a number mandated by the certification body (in this case TC - Transport Canada).

Years ago, Bombardier and TC have agreed on a certification plan. That document basically contains the agreed procedures how Bombardier intends to demonstrate that the designs meets the Certification Standards. All test points that need to be demonstrated by flight test are included in that plan (apart from flight testing, there is lot more testing like ground testing, software simulations and other items). Bombardier then translates that certification plan into an actual flight testing plan, listing all the flight test parameters.

Initially Bombardier anticipated that they would need around 2400 hrs of flight testing to satisfy all the requirements. But since we are not privy to that test plan, or how it proceeded (apart from the number of test hours), we have no way to establish if they in fact have covered all the agreed test points in a satisfactory way in those 2400 hrs.

Note that it may not be necessary to satisfy all agreed test point prior to certification. It is certainly possible (and this does happen from time to time, even at Airbus and Boeing) to issue a type certificate with certain limitations. Or delay some capabilities to later date, in which case a the TCDS (Type Certificate Data Sheet) is amended. Bombardier is currently in no rush to finish the certification, as there is no customer anxiously awaiting delivery, they may take their time to finish of the last test points. They may even delay Type Certificate to include some aspects in the basic design, which would otherwise have resulted in amended TCDS.

On the other hand, early Type Certificate is good for PR reasons, and also allows a somewhat simpler schedule to build up to a more mature airframe, as airline and passenger involvement is much less limited. That also helps to build and mature the maintenance program.

That was a little more elaborate answer than the one liner I initially anticipated, but I guess good information nevertheless.

PW100
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dare100em
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:11 pm

THX for the clarification PW100.

I really hope they get new orders soon. The plane is technical superb and deserves more market success.

[Edited 2015-09-02 07:37:44]
 
YXXMIKE
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:37 pm

Am I correct in saying that their next line of testing will be more of a client readiness focus? Making sure the airframe is airline ready; testing it at airports in more real life settings and pushing the reliability of the aircraft a bit further? How far out would one expect to hear of a confirmed delivery date to a customer?
 
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:51 pm

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 144):

It sounds like that's what's happening. Certification testing seems to be wrapping up and the next 300 hours are essentially to get the plane and program ready for EIS. Swiss employees will probably be intimately involved in the process.

I believe that Swiss employees will be working very closely with Bombardier to make EIS as smooth as possible. This program can really do without any more delays.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 135):
Those flights include the CS300, I thought CS100 alone needed 2,400 certification hours?

I think some flight testing can transfer to both models, with CS300 hours helping to speed along CS100 certification in some specific areas, and allowing the CS300 to certify without having to start from scratch.

[Edited 2015-09-02 09:54:16]
What the...?
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 2:22 am

Quoting PW100 (Reply 142):
Bombardier is currently in no rush to finish the certification, as there is no customer anxiously awaiting delivery, they may take their time to finish of the last test points.

I completely disagree with this statement. Bombardier is running out of cash and the CSeries backlog needs to be turned into deliveries as soon as possible. Swiss was not happy to hear that they would take their deliveries starting first half of 2016 as they were pressed with the expiration of their leases on their replacement fleet. Both parties have a vested interest in delivering he aircraft as soon as possible.

My take is that although BBD seems to be on track in getting the "bare bones minimum" type approval by end of this year and that the 2400 hours is a nice PR headline, they probably need to go beyond this basic type approval certification items for Swiss and next in line.
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Okcflyer
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 2:38 am

Can anyone think of any successful new airframe programs that got off to a rough start, sinking or at least nearly stinking its company, that turned out to be wildly successful? Did Embarer ever about slide off the cliff before they turned around? Any others? A320?

Looking for a positive reason to feel upbeat about the CSeries and hopeful it can turn a dark and nasty corner for BBD
 
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rikkus67
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:59 am

Quoting OKCFlyer (Reply 147):
Can anyone think of any successful new airframe programs that got off to a rough start,

Boeing 747.
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dare100em
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:18 am

Boeing 737 wasn't a runaway success at the very beginning. The 737-100 was build 30 times (!). It may turn out that the CS100 will also be more-or-less a niche plane. In the size of the CS100 the E-Jets and others are just lighter and better suited. That leafes only the rang as the main selling point.

In the long run i guess the CS300 and -500 may account for 95% plus of the sales.

[Edited 2015-09-03 00:55:09]
 
AntonovA330
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:03 am

Quoting OKCFlyer (Reply 147):
Can anyone think of any successful new airframe programs that got off to a rough start, sinking or at least nearly stinking its company, that turned out to be wildly successful?

I don't have numbers for its overall EIS performance, but the Habsheim accident in 1988 certainly didn't contribute to a positive publicity for the A320.
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diverted
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:40 am

Quoting OKCFlyer (Reply 147):
Can anyone think of any successful new airframe programs that got off to a rough start, sinking or at least nearly stinking its company, that turned out to be wildly successful? Did Embarer ever about slide off the cliff before they turned around? Any others? A320?

SSJ into the side of a mountain
A330 crash doing simulated engine failures.
 
DALCE
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:43 am

Quoting OKCFlyer (Reply 147):
Can anyone think of any successful new airframe programs that got off to a rough start, sinking or at least nearly stinking its company,

747 brought Boeing almost to bankruptcy, I believe this was really a close call back then!
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lightsaber
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:04 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 146):
I completely disagree with this statement. Bombardier is running out of cash and the CSeries backlog needs to be turned into deliveries as soon as possible. Swiss was not happy to hear that they would take their deliveries starting first half of 2016 as they were pressed with the expiration of their leases on their replacement fleet. Both parties have a vested interest in delivering he aircraft as soon as possible.

Yes, the delays are really eating into Bombardier's reserves.
It is past due to deliver the airframe. The question is what remains for delivery?

Quoting dare100em (Reply 149):
In the long run i guess the CS300 and -500 may account for 95% plus of the sales.

I suspect that is the likely case.

Lightsaber
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LH707330
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:32 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 36):
A fully unleashed CS100 with 23k engines should have even better range. So IMO we can expect MTOW boosts later on.

Depending on whether the airlines want that. I think the thrust bump might be to help LCY ops.

Quoting OKCFlyer (Reply 147):
Can anyone think of any successful new airframe programs that got off to a rough start, sinking or at least nearly stinking its company, that turned out to be wildly successful?

Many planes stunk  As mentioned, the 747 was a big one, as were some other Boeing liners, like the 247 and the 377. The 737 was initially a slow-seller, but they had cash from the 727 and 707 so it wasn't too big an issue. I'd add the DC-10 and L-1011 to the list, those two mutually cannibalized and left the field open for the A300 on shorter range sectors.

Quoting diverted (Reply 151):

SSJ into the side of a mountain
A330 crash doing simulated engine failures.

The SSJ crash was pretty quickly resolved as CFIT, don't think that materially impacted sales. Same with the 747 crash in Renton during testing. Not sure about the 330, I think it's problem was insufficient range and cheap oil that led airlines to pick the 340.

Quoting AntonovA330 (Reply 150):
I don't have numbers for its overall EIS performance, but the Habsheim accident in 1988 certainly didn't contribute to a positive publicity for the A320.

This one certainly raised eyebrows, especially with allegations of black box tampering.
 
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Spacepope
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RE: CSeries - Flight Test And Production (Part 9)

Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:41 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 154):
Same with the 747 crash in Renton during testing.

Huh? Details on this incident please.
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