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astuteman
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Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:44 pm

Haven't seen this posted on here. Apologies if it has been

http://aviationweek.com/farnborough-...mmid'&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_1_b

Quote:
Airbus plans to make the decision about whether or not it will launch a re-engined version of the Airbus A380 in 2015, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Customers John Leahy told Aviation Week at the Farnborough Air Show. Emirates, the aircraft’s most important operator, keeps on pushing Airbus hard to launch the A380neo and Leahy says that “if he [Emirates President Tim Clark] wants it, we need to study it.”

The article quotes EK as looking for an A380NEO in 2018, but Leahy doesn't see it happening until 2020

Rgds
 
Sooner787
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:46 pm

the A380 will look better with sharklets added on.

I just wonder how big they'll be ?
 
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uka330
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 1):
the A380 will look better with sharklets added on.

I just wonder how big they'll be ?

I'm not sure they would be able to add sharklets to the A380. They had to go with the wingtip fences as the wing span is already at the limit of the 80x80 meter box.

UKA330
 
A388CC
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:58 pm

I wonder who apart from Emirates would make an order. The A388 programme is still yet to break even so I wonder whether Airbus will risk spending more money on the development of the A380.
 
karadion
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:11 pm

With Airbus delivering only 13 for the year of 2014 (that seems to imply 30 a year), at that current rate, the soonest they'd make an A380neo would be somewhere around 2021 unless they ramp it back up to 45 a year which would be somewhere around 2019 then. That seems like a long ways off to wait for a neo version. And I'm assuming that the backlog is 189 A380's.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:22 pm

Quoting uka330 (Reply 2):
I'm not sure they would be able to add sharklets to the A380. They had to go with the wingtip fences as the wing span is already at the limit of the 80x80 meter box.

Sharklets would only be possible if they would apply folding wing tips as on the B778/9.

I am not sure if they will decide upon an A380-neo in 2015. It could easily slip to 2016-2017 with an EIS in 2021-2022. Although Airbus has mentioned to go for faster developments of newer versions of their airliners, I believe the A380-neo would take about 5 years of work. I hope the studies will prove the case to be economically feasible.   .
 
mffoda
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:59 pm

There is also this piece from AW and EA on possible upgrades...


http://aviationweek.com/farnborough-...tudying-future-a380-engine-options
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astuteman
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:02 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 5):
Sharklets would only be possible if they would apply folding wing tips as on the B778/9.

Or alternatively by just breaking the 80m box.... It's gonna happen one day  

Rgds
 
abba
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:03 pm

Quoting A388CC (Reply 3):
I wonder who apart from Emirates would make an order. The A388 programme is still yet to break even so I wonder whether Airbus will risk spending more money on the development of the A380

In that sense the 787 is in the very same sad boat as the 380 (and the 787 will properly only break even after the 380...). However, this entire question - which is mostly historical and academic (and in both cases more related to bad program execution than to sound business cases) - does not determine future investment and program developments. What Airbus in the future are going to spend on developments of the 380 (and the same as far as Boeing is concerned on the 787) is based not on the (lack of) past achievements, but on future expectations. So if a 380NEO will make enough money for Airbus IN THE FUTURE - relative to the investment - the 380NEO will be a reality. And the very same thing goes for the 787.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:07 pm

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):
Haven't seen this posted on here. Apologies if it has been.
KarelXWB noted in the A380 production thread, but I believe it warrants a new thread so...

  

Quoting A388CC (Reply 3):
I wonder who apart from Emirates would make an order. The A388 programme is still yet to break even so I wonder whether Airbus will risk spending more money on the development of the A380.

I would imagine the goal is to get other airlines not currently interested in the A380...interested in the A380.

I'm on record as being a major supporter of the A380, however I do wonder if they're looking at moving to a New Engine Option and other upgrades because the sales campaigns for the current model are starting to stall and Airbus is concerned they may not be able to maintain a 30-frame per annum order intake to support the current stable production rate over the long term.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:34 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
Or alternatively by just breaking the 80m box.... It's gonna happen one day  

On the runways and taxiways that might happen maybe sooner than later. But at the gates it might be very difficult to cope with an airplane which span increases the 80m x 80m dimensions. Therefore I was hinting at folding wingtips to stay within the box-limits for category F aircraft.
 
747400sp
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:45 pm

Now we are talking! We been reading about smaller and mid size jets get upgrades, it time for us big jet lovers to hear some new news.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:11 pm

There is a thread in Tech-Ops about this, and goes into great detail on what really needs to be done to the A380 to make it competitive with the 779 and A3510. It is a lot more than new engines, and it makes the point that since the present A380 is only just competitive with the 77W on seat-mile costs, the A380NEO will not be competitive with the 779 and A3510 because the gain in efficiency will be greater for the 779 than new engines can provide for the A380. The needed improvements to make it competitive are so costly that I doubt that Airbus can justify them unless they can find a LOT of new customers for it. And the dilemma that they are facing with the NEO is that it will please EK but may not lead to any new orders, because it will still be less efficient than several of the big twins. And since the capacity of the plane is what EK needs (because of slot restrictions at Dubai) they will likely continue buying it anyway.
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mrcomet
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:47 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 8):
In that sense the 787 is in the very same sad boat as the 380 (and the 787 will properly only break even after the 380...).

What? I disagree. With deposits down on 1031 and 162 delivered, the 787 is probably already coming close to break-even. The A380 may not even have the orders to break even now and given that the biggest discount went to the biggest customer they have a while to wait. These guys make a LOT more money on the metal than they indicate (both report big profits), plus they make more on all of the service contracts they tack on. Boeing has the advantage of having farmed out a lot of development to other people so they have less invested. I bet they are even in a year or two. I give the A380 about a decade but it too will get there.
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global2
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:54 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 12):
And since the capacity of the plane is what EK needs (because of slot restrictions at Dubai) they will likely continue buying it anyway.

I have to wonder, can't the government of Dubai expand that airport as much as they want? Money's no object; any adjacent properties could be bought out probably with relative ease (unlike LHR).
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:09 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 12):
And since the capacity of the plane is what EK needs (because of slot restrictions at Dubai) they will likely continue buying it anyway.
Quoting Global2 (Reply 14):
I have to wonder, can't the government of Dubai expand that airport as much as they want? Money's no object; any adjacent properties could be bought out probably with relative ease (unlike LHR).

Well if Dubai World Central - Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC) is completed to the original plan, that will provide more than enough expansion room for Emirates as it is designed to handle almost 2.5 times the current traffic DXB gets.
 
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FLALEFTY
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:16 am

Quoting mrcomet (Reply 13):

Depending on the source, the 787 program might break even in late-2015 (Boeing's estimate) or as late as mid-2017 (some Wall Street analysts' estimates). The A380 program is said to be on a similar track, with the official break even target estimate of late-2015.

The A380NEO would be a great evolution of the line, but to make it really attractive, Airbus needs to also develop it as the stretched -900NEO. The -900 variant's development was temporarily suspended a couple of years ago, but the basic design of the plane is more than capable of accommodating the extra capacity. This larger variant might make even a better case with airline customers needing a high-capacity, low-CASM plane.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:25 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
Or alternatively by just breaking the 80m box....

Also, Airbus *does* know how to build a fighter jet!  
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:51 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 16):
Depending on the source, the 787 program might break even in late-2015 (Boeing's estimate) or as late as mid-2017 (some Wall Street analysts' estimates). The A380 program is said to be on a similar track, with the official break even target estimate of late-2015.

Note that the 787 and A380 are working on "Production Break Even", which means that the revenue received for each delivery at a minimum covers the cost of producing the airframe.

Program Break Even, where all of the costs of the program are recovered from revenues on delivered airframes, is a different metric and neither company will likely ever state when (or if) that happens.
 
tristan7977
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:56 am

I just can't see an A380 with sharklets, nor anytype of winglet I can imagine of.
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7BOEING7
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:58 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 16):
Depending on the source, the 787 program might break even in late-2015 (Boeing's estimate) or as late as mid-2017 (some Wall Street analysts' estimates). The A380 program is said to be on a similar track, with the official break even target estimate of late-2015.

Both programs will break even on a per plane basis (the airplane costs less to build than it sells for) in the next few years (A380 2015) but the A380 at the program level (recover all the funds required to design/certify the airplane) will never beak even and the B787 will have to sell a lot more airplanes (x2) to get close.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:01 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 20):
Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 16):
Depending on the source, the 787 program might break even in late-2015 (Boeing's estimate) or as late as mid-2017 (some Wall Street analysts' estimates). The A380 program is said to be on a similar track, with the official break even target estimate of late-2015.

Both programs will break even on a per plane basis (the airplane costs less to build than it sells for) in the next few years (A380 2015) but the A380 at the program level (recover all the funds required to design/certify the airplane) will never beak even and the B787 will have to sell a lot more airplanes (x2) to get close.

And that above actually does not matter at all. The money is spend. Further investment will be judged only by how much additional revenue those investments will produce in the future.
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:30 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 12):
There is a thread in Tech-Ops about this, and goes into great detail on what really needs to be done to the A380 to make it competitive with the 779 and A3510. It is a lot more than new engines, and it makes the point that since the present A380 is only just competitive with the 77W on seat-mile costs

  

Excuse me.
There's a thread in tech-ops where a poster goes into huge detail on his OPINION of what needs to be done to make the A380 competitive with the 779.
All the industry data suggests that like you, he's miles out.
Put simply,
the A380 is "only just competitive with the 77W in seat-mile costs" when you put about 24% LESS seats in it per m2 of cabin space.
Apples-for-Apples or what!
A point which is conveniently glossed over, as is the fact that the fuel burn differences and operating cost differences aren't the same.

I'd suggest to readers that if they read that thread they have a good effort to read past the OP and examine some of the rebuttal arguments

Quoting mrcomet (Reply 13):
With deposits down on 1031 and 162 delivered, the 787 is probably already coming close to break-even.

787 won't even come close to production only break-even until next year. Much like the A380.
It's not until that point that Boeing will even start to recover some of the huge outlay that has been expended.

Rgds
 
tommy1808
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:47 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 20):
Both programs will break even on a per plane basis (the airplane costs less to build than it sells for) in the next few years (A380 2015) but the A380 at the program level (recover all the funds required to design/certify the airplane) will never beak even and the B787 will have to sell a lot more airplanes (x2) to get close.

The current (August) edition of the German Flug Revue quotes Bregier on Page 22 saying that the A380 will be profitable by the end of the decade. Since per plane is estimated for next year, he has to mean the program as a whole.

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autothrust
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:05 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 22):
the A380 is "only just competitive with the 77W in seat-mile costs" when you put about 24% LESS seats in it per m2 of cabin space.

  

Also if the economics of the A380 would be that bad airlines would not switch two 77W flights for 1 A380(EK,SQ) like in ZRH.


Just out of curiosity Is the A380 now on target weight or still 3t overweight?   

Quoting astuteman (Reply 22):
787 won't even come close to production only break-even until next year.

Boeing has invested over 32 Billion in the 787 program, it will take a long time to really break even.
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:12 am

CASM is a metric that depends largely on the load factor. Filling a 777W to 100% is easier than filling a A380 (with a similar m² per seat ratio). So far airlines seem to think that offering a better product on the A380 is more efficient than adding seats, therefore the CASM ratio of the A380 is worse, but airlines seem to think that higher ticket prices for the better product compensate this.
A A388NEO with a similar m² per seat ratio as the 777X will be fully competitive on CASM basis, the big question is how many airlines can sell those seats.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:47 am

Quoting autothrust (Reply 24):
Just out of curiosity Is the A380 now on target weight or still 3t overweight?

It's already a few tons below the original spec.
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tommy1808
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:49 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 25):
CASM is a metric that depends largely on the load factor. Filling a 777W to 100% is easier than filling a A380 (with a similar m² per seat ratio)

A 24% CASM advantage allows you to make a lot more of money on seasonal routes. You just have to sell 27% more seats on average, but you have 67% more seats (same m2/seat) to do it with. And i am pretty sure filling an A380 with an average load factor of 76% will be a hell lot easier than filling a 77W 100% year round (or 69% vs. 90%, 61% vs. 80%). I think that is what Tim Clark means when he says that other Airlines don´t "get" the A380.

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Thomas
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frigatebird
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:34 am

Quoting autothrust (Reply 24):
Boeing has invested over 32 Billion in the 787 program

This figure includes cost of production frames and is therefore very arbitrary. The real R&D cost is only known to Boeing, and program break-even will probably be known to Boeing only.

However:

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 21):
The money is spend. Further investment will be judged only by how much additional revenue those investments will produce in the future.
Quoting astuteman (Reply 22):
Apples-for-Apples

This is always the hardest part in airplane comparison. I wonder if it is really possible, even. For example EK: they could put 11 abreast Y seats in their A380s to take advantage of its wider cabin. But they don't. Reason: they don't want to put up their passengers with a possible middle seat of 5. They want to keep the A380 as a premium product, thus generating more revenue. And that is the other half of the equation, and more important than cost: what revenue will it create! And it must be clear for EK that the A380 in a less 'efficient' 10Y configuration will generate more revenue bottom line than 11Y. So the whole CASM debate tells just half the story.

FWIW, I hope Airbus will decide in favor of the A380neo. I think it will not just make the A380 attractive to other airlines, but will keep their current customers investing in new A380s as well. I must say I am a bit disappointed with the A380 fleet sizes of big airlines like LH (14), BA (12) and AF (12). With the A350-1000 and 777-9 around the corner, I'm a bit doubtful whether these airlines and others with even smaller fleets will purchase further A380ceo's. LH cancelling 3 A380s after their 777X purchase, and BA and AF not interested in converting their options into firm orders are signals Airbus has to address IMO.

I just hope to see more different A380 liveries   I'm not so confident about Amadeo placing their frames...  
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r2rho
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:11 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 6):
There is also this piece from AW and EA on possible upgrades...
http://aviationweek.com/farnborough-...tudying-future-a380-engine-options

I quote:
Initial upgrades could yield specific fuel consumption improvements in the 0.5% to 1% range, while more comprehensive packages are aimed at between 2% and 5%.

The first one looks like a typical PIP, the second goes well beyond that but falls short of a NEO. As in the event of a NEO, EA would likely be out, it is in their interest to push incremental upgrades. If EA can deliver 5-6% savings, any NEO would have to deliver approx 15-17% better performance than current engines to attain (together with 2-4% from aero upgrades etc) the approx 15% that justifies the NEO business case (taking A320/A330 as reference). 15-17% better than T900/GP7200 is a big leap that would not be achieved before 2025 IMO, effectively pushing out the NEO and buying time for EA. In the end the decision will lie with Airbus - choose between incremental upgrades or possible new engine from XXX?

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 28):
I must say I am a bit disappointed with the A380 fleet sizes of big airlines like LH (14), BA (12) and AF (12)

Regardless of the NEO, Airbus needs to work on making more airlines "get" the current A380. EK will always remain the dominant player on the program, but a larger CEO customer base will improve the NEO business case, and the overall program.
 
planewasted
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:34 am

About this program break even stuff: Don't forget that the manufacturer will earn lots of money on spare parts after the the airplane has been delivered. So if an airplane is sold at a loss it might still earn money for the manufacturer in the end.
 
olle
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:05 am

Is it possible to retrofit old A380 from 2008 to 2010 with 11 seats per row like the new ones? This will add another 40? seats to already excisting frames... How will that make them look compared to used 777W that comes to market 2020?

I have a sensation that when talking about A380 that in 2020 close will have been produced in 350 copies (please correct me) we need to compare the used copies coming to market with the 777W that was produced between 2008 and 2010. And the original bsuiness case of 250 copies for break even is reached and I see that the backlog in 2020 will be around 600 of wich 350 is produced that also means that the management of Airbus will be able to see a profit for the first version or at least break even.

I think this is a great achievement and it makes the case for investment much better then the A.net discuss normally.
 
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autothrust
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:11 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 28):
This figure includes cost of production frames and is therefore very arbitrary. The real R&D cost is only known to Boeing, and program break-even will probably be known to Boeing only.

I disagree, it's not arbitrary. It represents the total investment into the 787.

Boeing has to generate more then 32Billion to brake even.(which will someday happen )

The R&D for the 787 program from 2004 to 2012 is estimated at $17.6 billion.

http://www.abeweb.org/proceedings/Proceedings13/Schwartz.pdf

If you subtract the estimated R&D costs from the 32B figure /161 delivered planes you get a production cost per plane of 89 Million $.

[Edited 2014-07-17 04:14:33]
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:06 pm

Based on anticipated technical risks and the available markets at the beginning of the program, I think Boeing was expecting to be "printing money" with the 787 program by now. On the other hand, Airbus was likely aware that they were on a riskier path to profits with the A380 program.

That said, Airbus successfully introduced their "halo product" in the A380, which will probably not be directly challenged for many decades to come. The technologies Airbus used, the development lessons learned, the supply chain and manufacturing processes refined in the A380 program have filtered down into their new "cash cow" programs such as the A350, A32XNEO and A330XNEO, making them more efficient and competitive.

The development of the A380NEO is a calculated market risk but one I think is worth taking.
 
DTWPurserBoy
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:22 pm

Quoting tristan7977 (Reply 19):






I just can't see an A380 with sharklets, nor anytype of winglet I can imagine of.

Perhaps a "raked" wingtip like on the 777. If Airbus decides to "NEO" the A380 I would think going straight to the A389 would make more sense. Really lower CASM dramatically and make it more attractive especially to Far East carriers. I don't see a market for it here in the US, however.
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:30 pm

Well, at least Tim Clark could kick off the A380neo program with as many as 80 A380s.

Quote:
Emirates could buy an additional 60 to 80 Airbus A380s if the aircraft is updated with more fuel-efficient engines, the airline's chief executive Tim Clark said, according to the Financial Times.

http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1405556684.html
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:09 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 35):
Well, at least Tim Clark could kick off the A380neo program with as many as 80 A380s.

So what is stopping him? 

I guess the delays on the new airport in Dubai are the thriving factor.
 
olle
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:16 pm

In the thread about improvments of gp7200 it says that it will receive an improvment of 5% over the standard pip. Considering the improvement of the frame with a few % plus a few pip and this 5% and we soon have close to 10% of improvements.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:16 pm

The engine probably. All current production engines won´t be worth the effort. The Trent 900 had its first flight just 10 years ago. EP1 and EP2 also saw some techtransfer from the Trent XWB. So it needs to be an engine of the Advance level at least. This is not ready before 2020.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:31 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 38):
So it needs to be an engine of the Advance level at least. This is not ready before 2020.

Correct. And therefore I believe that a decision on an A380-neo could very well be delayed till 2016-2017. Especially if engines like the RR-advanced RB-3025 or something along such lines will become available. At that time the aircraft is basically 15 years old and due for an upgrade as we see on most airliner programmes.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:56 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 38):
The engine probably. All current production engines won´t be worth the effort. The Trent 900 had its first flight just 10 years ago. EP1 and EP2 also saw some techtransfer from the Trent XWB. So it needs to be an engine of the Advance level at least. This is not ready before 2020.

I agree, if there is to be a A380NEO it is not going to be based on tweaking the current GP or RR engines.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 33):
That said, Airbus successfully introduced their "halo product" in the A380, which will probably not be directly challenged for many decades to come.

Although it angers some to think of the A380 as a "halo project", it does fill that role, because it's never had a solid business case. There probably won't be a solid enough business case for a NEO because EK has already said they'll keep taking A380s without new engines and because if you want something to haul 500+ people you have no other choice, but it would not surprise me if A380NEO did go ahead as a "halo project" for both Airbus and Rolls Royce. They are both executing remarkably well, and there's no reason to think they could not execute remarkably well on a A380NEO.
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karadion
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:45 pm

Quoting autothrust (Reply 32):
The R&D for the 787 program from 2004 to 2012 is estimated at $17.6 billion.

Those actually already have been written off.
http://theblogbyjavier.com/2011/11/03/787-break-even-for-dummies/
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:47 pm

Quoting Karadion (Reply 41):
Those actually already have been written off.

Boeing still has some $20 billion deferred costs.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:51 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 42):
Boeing still has some $20 billion deferred costs.

Most analysts put it closer to $16 billion and that will come down as airframes are delivered.



Quoting Revelation (Reply 40):
Although it angers some to think of the A380 as a "halo project", it does fill that role, because it's never had a solid business case.

In general the program seems to be tracking to the original projections in terms of orders, if not deliveries. So I don't think the business case was unsound.

[Edited 2014-07-17 09:52:24]
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):
Most analysts put it closer to $16 billion and that will come down as airframes are delivered.

Of course. But the point is, those costs have not been written off  
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:55 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 44):
Of course. But the point is, those costs have not been written off.  

True, but they would not need to be unless the airframes could not be delivered (hence the large write-offs on ZA001, ZA002 and ZA003).
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:57 pm

Quoting autothrust (Reply 24):
Just out of curiosity Is the A380 now on target weight or still 3t overweight?

It is now about 2.5t less than at EIS
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus To Make A380neo Decision In 2015

Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 42):
Boeing still has some $20 billion deferred costs.

Most analysts put it closer to $16 billion and that will come down as airframes are delivered.

It can only come down when the sales price of a frame is above production cost and that is expected to happen in 2015.

The deferred cost are around 25 billion USD and still rising, and you do not need analysts but a look into the financial statements.

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