Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine

Flaps · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:43 pm

I had just finished reading about a Ukraine Su25 being shot down when this popped up. Gonna get real ugly real fast regardless of who pulled the trigger.

flyingturtle · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:44 pm

Dear God, don't let this be true.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 19):
If this was mechanical, do you think this could give insight into what happened to MH370?

We are several light years away from making any sensible conclusion yet.

It's probably of no value, but gcmap.com shows the actual path as following the AMS-KUL great circle route.

My/our questions are now:
- how good is the ADS-B coverage in Ukraine? Is Flightaware accurate?
- if Flightaware is accuate, does it even make sense shooting down an aircraft coming from the west?
- if it was not shot down... is the crash in Ukraine pure coincidence?

David

mrcomet · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:44 pm

I doubt it was shot down. It would have had to have been by an airplane or a more sophisticated heat seeking SAM than the short range stuff they are using. The truth is always the first casualty and its likely the Ukrainians will use this against the Russians but I doubt any of them could have any information at this point.

The question is why it was flying in air space if it was closed .... or was it closed.

I would wait to jump to any conclusions....

sturmovik · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:44 pm

Quoting SuperCaravelle (Reply 48):
Not Netherlands for sure, probably Russia as Interfax brings the news.

While I have no confirmation in any way, I doubt the Russians would be so forthcoming with information if it was one of their fighters/SAMs that brought the plane down.

777Jet · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:44 pm

OMG I don't know what to say... Very bad times for MAS and their 777s... RIP to those on board...

BestWestern · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:45 pm

https://twitter.com/MAS

Malaysia Airlines has lost contact of MH17 from Amsterdam. The last known position was over Ukrainian airspace. More details to follow.

greaser · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:46 pm

Quoting adriaticus (Reply 32):
What a bad year for the T7, which until now had an almost impeccable record

If this airplane was shot down, I don't see how this is a knock on the safety record of the airplane - nothing could have been done if it was indeed shot down.

SuperCaravelle · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:47 pm

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 56):
While I have no confirmation in any way, I doubt the Russians would be so forthcoming with information if it was one of their fighters/SAMs that brought the plane down.

Interfax is active in both Ukraine and Russia, so this could be a propaganda war from either side.

It seems very unlikely to me that a 777 would go down like is visible on the footage without external interference.

hooverman · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:48 pm

Quoting 76er (Reply 44):
Considering the holiday season, many Dutch families will have been on board. Tragic.

Yes, terrible. My condolences to all the famillies of the victims.

hoya · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:48 pm

Is flightradar24.com wrong? The pic on twitter doesn't seem to correspond with what I found (flight behind it is SQ 351):

MH 17 per flightradar24.com

racko · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:48 pm

Can't make this up. MAH B777 in the Ukraine/Russia border region.

To be honest I'm a bit surprised that there are still airliners flying there given the events in recent days.

laxboeingman · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:48 pm

Did the ICAO change the flight path to avoid Ukraine or did that not happen yet?

KNX is reporting that Ukrainian rebels shot down the plane. Who knows what is true at this point, however.

This is very sad and disappointing. I am very sorry to all of those involved with the fight.

SuperCaravelle · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:50 pm

Quoting hoya (Reply 63):

Is flightradar24.com wrong? The pic on twitter doesn't seem to correspond with what I found (flight behind it is SQ 351):

This is the link I found: flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17

Showing normal cruise altitude entering Ukraine.

sandrozrh · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:50 pm

Quoting United787 (Reply 52):
If this is the case, wouldn't most airlines avoid flying through this airspace?

I don't know about others, but we certainly avoid flying over the conflict regions in the south and west.

enilria · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:50 pm

Is it meaningful that flightaware shows the flight going off tracking at the Western Ukraine border and not Donetsk which is on the opposite side of the country?

Is it more likely that the plane descended for some reason (mechanical) and that resulted in it getting shot down? Is that a more likely scenario?

[Edited 2014-07-17 08:53:14]

casinterest · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:50 pm

I am looking for corroborating news sites, but my local news site www.wral.com has this quote in it's ariticle.

"
Anton Gerashenko, an adviser to Ukraine's Interior Minister, said on his Facebook page the plane was flying at an altitude of 10,000 meters (33,000 feet) when it was hit by a missile fired from a Buk launcher. A similar launcher was seen by Associated Press journalists near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier Thursday
"

Read more at http://www.wral.com/official-malaysi...ne/13819634/#DgjhD1j3RsVdxZAI.99"

boeingguy26 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:52 pm

Flightaware does not have an estimated calculation anymore. It is just showing the tracked route (green trace) and that's it.

My deepest condolences to the families of those on board.

[Edited 2014-07-17 08:55:24]

laxboeingman · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:53 pm

KNX just said they are getting reports that it's on the Ukraine side.

They just had someone else on who said he "doubts there is any correlation" to MH370 and that a shot to the fuel tank would have caused it to crash.

Just got the CBS alert that said it is reported by AP.

Francoflier · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

The speculations have started on BBC news. Mostly about it possibly being shot down by the separatists, likely using 'borrowed' Russian weapon systems.

This is going to get very political, very quickly...

I have a feeling the investigation is not going to be easy. Searching the black boxes might prove as fruitless as for the other hapless MH 777.

RIP all.

mrcomet · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

According to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man-portable_air-defense_systems

Shoulder-fired SAMs generally have a target detection range of about 6 miles (10 km) and an engagement range of about 4 miles (6 km), so aircraft flying at 20,000 feet (6,100 m) (3.8 miles) or higher are relatively safe.[6]

spacecadet · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 52):
- if it was not shot down... is the crash in Ukraine pure coincidence?

All crashes anywhere are coincidence. The laws of chance don't care whether there's a war going on somewhere.

Quoting casinterest (Reply 67):
Anton Gerashenko, an adviser to Ukraine's Interior Minister, said on his Facebook page the plane was flying at an altitude of 10,000 meters (33,000 feet) when it was hit by a missile fired from a Buk launcher.

Unless he was there and personally witnessed it, he would have no way of knowing that whatsoever.

gabrielchew · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

Oh dear, so sad for MH, as well as the crew and pax of course. Not a good time for them. I'm booked on one of MHs 777s in November.

Basefly · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

I think that there can be no doubt that airlines will change their flight path away from this area immediately.

SuperCaravelle · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 67):

KNX just said they are getting reports that it's on the Ukraine side.

They just had someone else on who said he "doubts there is any correlation" to MH370 and that a shot to the fuel tank would have caused it to crash.

Just got the CBS alert that said it is reported by AP.

I would be very careful with any reports attributing this action to either side of the conflict, there will be major PR going on at the moment.

MD80Nut · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:55 pm

Good Lord, what a tragedy! And now it seems it may have been shot down. What a horror. My condolences to all families involved. I hope we get the truth behind this.

Cheers, Ralph

BigSaabowski · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:55 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 63):
Is it meaningful that flightaware shows the flight going off tracking at the Western Ukraine border and not Donetsk which is on the opposite side of the country?

No, the Flightaware tracking region ends at the Polish/Ukrainian border. i.e.: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/SIA333

Flightradar24 (Modes-S based) showed it going all they way to the Russian border.

[Edited 2014-07-17 08:57:34]

yvrtoyyz · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:56 pm

Anyone have a flightaware screenshot showing the route flown? FlightAware has since removed it for July 17, 2014.

enilria · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:56 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/malay...businessinsider+(Business+Insider)

"The area is controlled by pro-Russian separatists who are fighting the Ukrainian army.

On July 8, the State Aviation Administration of Ukraine closed the airspace to civilian aircraft after a military transport plane was shot down."

So was the plane off course? Or is this wrong?

mrcomet · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:56 pm

Since a shoulder mounted SAM couldn't get this aircraft, the issue becomes whether a sophicticated SAM system was there - truck mounted. If so, Russia is in deep sh#t because there is no way a Ukrainian separatist gets his hands on one of those through the black market.

A388 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:57 pm

Terrible news, I hope we will know the cause of this crash soon. The aircraft was probably flying at criuse altitude at the time it came down so I find it very hard to believe that something happened to the aircraft mechanically or technically in mid-air. The tension in that region should definately be something to be looked at in my opinion.

A388

Miami · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:57 pm

No.... Not this again..

I'm terribly sadden of hearing of what's going on.

My thoughts and prayers are out to the victims and their families.

Multiple reports state it was "shot down"

www.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/489798178221621248

Here's a picture of the smoke

Mir · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:57 pm

Multiple news outlets apparently saying it was shot down. It's not going to be easy to get confirmation on that, and even if we do we might never really know what actually happened and who was responsible given all the propaganda that's going on in that region at the moment.

http://www.nycaviation.com/2014/07/b...ian-777-shot-ukraine/#.U8fxpY1dVAB

-Mir

casinterest · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 71):
Unless he was there and personally witnessed it, he would have no way of knowing that whatsoever.

Well, according to the video's out. Many people witnessed it, as it happened in broad daylight in the Ukraine. Doesn't take much to take a report from an eyewitness. However as I said before, there is more corroborating evidence required. For all we know it could be a terrible TWA 800 coincidence.

blrsea · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:59 pm

Why focus only on Russian separatists? Why couldn't the Ukrainian govt itself have done it, given that it needs to a sophisticated SAM to intercept at 33k ft, and not shoulder mounted SAM. And they need a radar to accurately track the flying object and shoot it. Given that Russia is the current "bad guy" out there per western media, everyone is quick to jump on them.

windshear · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:59 pm

its on the border... Impossible to say in which airspace... Could be both...

Boaz.

aviationaware · Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:59 pm

That probably sounds the death knell on MH then, no matter what the cause of this catastrophe was.

zkojq · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:00 pm

There was a lot of shelling along the Ukraine Russia border this afternoon. Its hard not to think that it might be related to that. Tensions are certainly high in that region currently. I really hope there might be survivors.

RIP to the victims. Thoughts are with their loved ones. Thoughts also with MAS staff. Lightning isn't supposed to strike twice.

seansasLCY · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:00 pm

According to Sky News it is reported that a BUK surface to air missile was used. Obviously there is no confirmation of that. Truly terrible news.

usa330300 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:00 pm

Quoting mrcomet (Reply 50):
I doubt it was shot down. It would have had to have been by an airplane or a more sophisticated heat seeking SAM than the short range stuff they are using.

It was shot down with the Russian designed Buk missile system. That much we know. Whether it was the Ukrainians or Russians that shot it down we do not know.

moo · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:00 pm

Quoting mrcomet (Reply 77):
If so, Russia is in deep sh#t because there is no way a Ukrainian separatist gets his hands on one of those through the black market.

If indeed it was a Ukrainian separatist group that fired the missile - it could have been a Ukrainian military unit that was not aware of any civil overflights in the area reacting to heightened tensions regarding alleged Russian downing of Ukrainian aircraft recently, and reports of Russian aircraft incursions into Ukrainian airspace.

We know far far too little at the moment to come to any conclusions.

9VSIO · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:00 pm

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 60):

Did the ICAO change the flight path to avoid Ukraine or did that not happen yet?

I seem to recall a NOTAM back in May already advising pilots to avoid certain parts of Ukraine due to uncertainty over airspace claims...

BlueSky1976 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:00 pm

Image of the "Buk" launcher: http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K37_Bu...1-2_air_defence_system_in_2010.jpg

This is no MANPAD. Probably heavy equipment, operated by Russians under "separatist" guise.

Some serious stuff. I feel for the families and friends of the lost ones...

windshear · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:01 pm

Latest I heard all on board are dead

spacecadet · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting Mir (Reply 80):
even if we do we might never really know what actually happened and who was responsible given all the propaganda that's going on in that region at the moment.

I don't know why people always seem to say this about every crash. The FDR and CVR are sitting in a field right now. Someone just needs to go get them.

TripleDelta · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting mrcomet (Reply 77):
Since a shoulder mounted SAM couldn't get this aircraft, the issue becomes whether a sophicticated SAM system was there - truck mounte

Quoting yakima (Reply 14):
The heading of this video in this link suggests it was shot down:

http://www.businessinsider.com/malay...businessinsider+(Business+Insider)

The article posted in reply #14 states "Buk missile system"... that's the SA-11 in NATO-speak, designed to chase high-altitude targets and the default replacement for the SA-6.

enilria · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:02 pm

I'm sorry for ramping up the conspiracy theories already, but I'm sorry. The odds of this being randomly targeted at the exact same type and airline as what has become the biggest mystery in the history of aviation...and only 4 months later...are astronomical. I don't buy that it's possible.

Either this plane was targeted because it was MH (could be any number of reasons) or this plane had some sort of problem related to what happened before; and that possibly put it in a position to be at risk of shoot-down (lower than normal altitude or off- course in a restricted area).

The odds are simply to high for this to be random. Not possible.

b777erj145 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:02 pm

Sorry to hear about this accident. We should wait for investigation before even reaching to any concusion.

Quoting YWG (Reply 33):

So is CBS, NBC( according to NBC several organization is saying that)

SyeaphanR · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 59):

Can't make this up. MAH B777 in the Ukraine/Russia border region.

To be honest I'm a bit surprised that there are still airliners flying there given the events in recent days.

Well, a few days back, this guy said...

http://jeziorki.blogspot.co.uk/

greaser · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:03 pm

Quoting mrcomet (Reply 77):

Since a shoulder mounted SAM couldn't get this aircraft, the issue becomes whether a sophicticated SAM system was there - truck mounted. If so, Russia is in deep sh#t because there is no way a Ukrainian separatist gets his hands on one of those through the black market.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 57):
Gonna take a lot more than a quote from one guy 20 minutes after the crash to make me believe that. Especially from a shoulder mounted missile. Something else would be a lot more likely.

Reuters reporting it was a Buk SAM. ironically Russia was pitching the Buk to Malaysia as a SAM system 4 years ago...

It's a medium-range, portable SAM system.

Quoting blrsea (Reply 85):

Why focus only on Russian separatists? Why couldn't the Ukrainian govt itself have done it, given that it needs to a sophisticated SAM to intercept at 33k ft, and not shoulder mounted SAM. And they need a radar to accurately track the flying object and shoot it. Given that Russia is the current "bad guy" out there per western media, everyone is quick to jump on them.

Because thus far the Ukrainians haven't been shooting down aircraft....
Why would the Ukrainians be shooting down an airplane that is clearly flying (on their radar) from West to East?

Viper911 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:03 pm

A plane crashes in a conflict area, of course everyone will shout it was shot down, it surely can happen, guys and gals don't make any assumptions before anything official will be posted, the conflict isn't easy as it is. As per now it crashed, nothing more.

Viper911

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