Quoting spacecadet (Reply 97):

if they are intact...

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 97): I don't know why people always seem to say this about every crash. The FDR and CVR are sitting in a field right now. Someone just needs to go get them.

Seeing where this took place, chances are someone might run away with them.

That said, seeing the amount of surveillance in the region, I'm sure radars and/or satellites would pick up the signs of a missile flaring up to 33k feet.

This is horrible. 2014 is truly the annus horribilis for MAS...RIP

KNX said that an advisor to the Ukrainian Interior Minister said it was the separatists, but that there had been no claim of responsibility. CBS Network said that a Russian news station also reported it was shot down. One of the reporters reported it was shot down by a type of missiles that rebels recently got. He reported, though, that separatists deny it. Another reporter said that the Pentagon has seen heavy equipment go from Russia to Ukraine, implying that separatists would have the capability to do it. The anchor said "all are feared dead."

One if the experts make a good point about the black boxes.

Nothing from Obama yet, but the same station said that the US got on a conference call to get more info. I'm not quite sure what that will do.

Something has to be done about this fighting. Something needed to be find before, but this is the last straw.

Quoting usa330300 (Reply 91): It was shot down with the Russian designed Buk missile system. That much we know.

We don't know this, eiher. So far, this is just an unconfirmed claim.

only from statistical logic, quite rare a plane falls out of the sky during cruise. without at least some warning. we dont know that yet.

from the youtube video above, seems to be a single source of fire, not something one would expect if the plane breaks up in the sky for whatever reason.

too early for any concöusions. but the chance it was a missile is quit high.

what a tragedy for all involved. and we will see disgusting political shit in the next weeks.

planes should stay out of any conflict area. this is for sure.

Quoting greaser (Reply 102): Reuters reporting it was a Buk SAM. ironically Russia was pitching the Buk to Malaysia as a SAM system 4 years ago...

If I remember correct, its used by Ukrainians and Russia. Ukraine claimed yesterday that russia had violated their airspace. I would not rule out that someone mistakenly thought it was a russian intruder. Or the other way around.

Maybe both parties could understand now that this bullshit going on down there is of nu use for anybody.

Quoting greaser (Reply 102): Why would the Ukrainians be shooting down an airplane that is clearly flying (on their radar) from West to East?

Why would Russians do that, no body wins from a Malaysian airplane going down in Ukraine.

Quoting 9VSIO (Reply 93):

which, if this was sent out, blame will be put on MH for failing to adhere to this warning.

Quoting enilria (Reply 99): I'm sorry for ramping up the conspiracy theories already, but I'm sorry. The odds of this being randomly targeted at the exact same type and airline as what has become the biggest mystery in the history of aviation...and only 4 months later...are astronomical. I don't buy that it's possible. Either this plane was targeted because it was MH (could be any number of reasons) or this plane had some sort of problem related to what happened before; and that possibly put it in a position to be at risk of shoot-down (lower than normal altitude or off- course in a restricted area). The odds are simply to high for this to be random. Not possible.

Or could MH due to financial issues be using an air corridor over a potentially dangerous area other airlines are opting out of as its the cheaper route?

It's really a series of unfortunate events happening to MH....
May passengers sound and safe  

Quoting boefan (Reply 105): if they are intact...

Why wouldn't they be? This is what they're designed for.

The rebels claimed the shoot-down (when they thought it was an AN-26)

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/489795820070658048

Seems like it is very close to the border

Shortly after the crash, the self-declared Minister of Defense of the Donetsk rebels claimed that his forces had shot down a Ukrainian Air Force An-26...

In Russian:


http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/2942...ng_s_300_passajirami_na_bortu_foto

They need to shut down Ukrainian airspace immediately pending an investigation. Other airliners could be in danger.

This is absolutely horrific. Is it just a cruel coincidence that it is another MH 777 or could this be a calculated attack by the rebels for maximum impact?

I'm numb....

What a despicable act if it was a shoot down - my condolences to all on board, and to MAS for such a terrible run of luck. However, if it is proven it was shot down, especially as the EU and US ratchet up sanction on Russia for supplying the Ukraine rebels with arms, all hell of a manner of shit is going to hit the fan.

I'm not (yet) convinced it was shot down. I'm sure either side would be quick to blame the other for such a tragedy and I've yet to see any hard evidence that a missile downed the plane. It sounds like speculation to me. 

Quoting usa330300 (Reply 91): It was shot down with the Russian designed Buk missile system. That much we know.

We don't actually know that it was shot down.

Quoting 9VSIO (Reply 93): I seem to recall a NOTAM back in May already advising pilots to avoid certain parts of Ukraine due to uncertainty over airspace claims...

Here's the FAA version: http://www.nbaa.org/ops/intl/mid/FDC-NOTAM.pdf

The formatting isn't great, but it applied to Crimea and the neighboring sea areas and had to do with both Ukraine and Russia trying to assert control over the airspace. To my knowledge it has not been extended to eastern Ukraine, since Russia has not tried to control that airspace. And, as you said, it is for uncertain airspace claims, not for risk of SAM activity.

-Mir

cmdr Strelkov tweet


http://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/489802664264212480

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 86): I don't really think MH will be in business by November with those two tragedies, whatever the reason for this 2nd one is.

Of course they will, not least because they're state-backed. Remember that before flying became as safe as it is today, many airlines lost several planes in a row.

Quoting enilria (Reply 99): The odds are simply to high for this to be random. Not possible.

Nonesense, of course it's possible. If it was really shot down, do you think the perpetrators checked the airline and aircraft type first? Horrible coincidence, if that is what happened.

Quoting greaser (Reply 102): Why would the Ukrainians be shooting down an airplane that is clearly flying (on their radar) from West to East?

Question is, why would anyone shoot down a civilian airliner. There's nothing in it for anyone. That's why we need to be careful accepting the Ukrainians' and Russians' claims as fact, as of now.

All airliners are being diverted from the area at the moment.

Quoting greaser (Reply 56): If this airplane was shot down, I don't see how this is a knock on the safety record of the airplane - nothing could have been done if it was indeed shot down.

Maybe Overflying a Hot Zone like the Ukraine just isn't a good Idea. if Russia OR the ukraine can't guarantee civilian safety then maybe ALL that airspace should be off limits altogether,
And then we can see what Putin will do about THAT!

I think we all need to bow our heads in a moment of silence for these people and their families. The pax are no longer in pain, but this is the beginning of hell for all of their loved ones.

How likely is it for one carrier to lose 2 modern aircraft in less than a year especially a 777? c'mon, really? Who else is thinking sabotage?

Quoting Rara (Reply 129): Nonesense, of course it's possible. If it was really shot down, do you think the perpetrators checked the airline and aircraft type first? Horrible coincidence, if that is what happened.

It's easy to do nowadays with all the flighttracking apps about. The rebels could have calculated this to have a huge impact based on all the press surrounding MH370.

Quoting mattdell (Reply 124): I'm not (yet) convinced it was shot down. I'm sure either side would be quick to blame the other for such a tragedy and I've yet to see any hard evidence that a missile downed the plane. It sounds like speculation to me.

I think tensions are so high that nobody wants to be reckless and blame someone without knowing all the facts

RIP to all of those onboard. I pray that it wasn't shot down.
Pat

Quoting ozark1 (Reply 28): Excuse my ignorance on the subject, but can a plane be shot down from that high an altitude?

Never heard of the U2 incident ? That was in 1960 and the U2 flies much, much higher than a 777.

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 35): It certainly can. However, not with a small, hand fired antiaircraft missile one would expect the separatists may have.

I guess you're not following the news, the EU and USA are sanctioning Putin precisely because he's providing arms, support, men, to the rebels.

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 51): While I have no confirmation in any way, I doubt the Russians would be so forthcoming with information if it was one of their fighters/SAMs that brought the plane down.

If you're going to point fingers at the other camp, being the first to do it is better. The two sides are doing it within an hour of the incident, so they clearly know this.

Quoting enilria (Reply 63): Is it more likely that the plane descended for some reason (mechanical) and that resulted in it getting shot down? Is that a more likely scenario?

It's possible but I would expect someone, maybe ATC, to have already tweeted or called a radio/TV to tell us about distress calls etc.

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 114): if this was sent out, blame will be put on MH for failing to adhere to this warning.

The NOTAM defined an area - was issued via UK AIS. I'm afraid I haven't looked up the exact area defined.

"Q) EGXX/QAFXX/IV/NBO/E/000/999/5552N00617W999
B) FROM: 14/06/30 17:01C) TO: 14/08/01 00:01
E) POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION UKRAINE AIRSPACE, PARTICULARLY OVER
CRIMEA, THE BLACK SEA, AND THE SEA OF AZOV.
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICTING AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL (ATC)
INSTRUCTIONS FROM UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES AND FOR THE
RELATED POTENTIAL MISIDENTIFICATION OF CIVIL AIRCRAFT, UK AIRCRAFT
OPERATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO AVOID, UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, THE
AIRSPACE OVER CRIMEA, THE BLACK SEA, AND THE SEA OF AZOV, WITHIN THE
FOLLOWING LATERAL LIMITS:
454500N 0345800E-460900N 0360000E-460000N 0370000E-452700N 0364100E-
452242N 0364100E-451824N 0363524E-451442N 0363542E-451218N 0363200E-
450418N 0363418E-445600N 0363700E-443100N 0364000E-424400N 0361600E-
424700N 0340000E-424800N 0304500E-434100N 0303200E-441500N 0302400E-
444600N 0300900E-455400N 0322500E-454900N 0324700E-455400N 0330600E-
455600N 0332700E-455900N 0332900E-THEN ALONG THE CRIMEA BORDER TO
454500N 0345800E.
UNILATERAL ACTION TO ESTABLISH A NEW SIMFEROPOL (URFV) FIR THAT
INCLUDES BOTH UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGN AIRSPACE OVER THE CRIMEAN
PENINSULA AND INTERNATIONAL HIGH SEAS AIRSPACE MANAGED NEW: Thomsonfly (United Kingdom)">BY UKRAINE
CONTRADICTS INTERNATIONAL LAW AND ICAO ANNEX 11 STANDARDS.
UKRAINE NOTAM A0528/14, PUBLISHED 28 MAR 20:14 2014, REJECTS NOTAM
A0907/14 PUBLISHED NEW: Thomsonfly (United Kingdom)">BY THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION. UKRAINE CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE AIR TRAFFIC SERVICES (ATS) IN THE AIRSPACE DESCRIBED IN THE
PARAGRAPH ABOVE AND RUSSIA IS ALSO PROVIDING ATS IN THAT AIRSPACE.
FURTHERMORE, UKRAINE NOTAM A0520/14, PUBLISHED 28 MAR 16:59 2014,
CREATES A PROHIBITED AREA OVER THE CRIMEAN PENINSULA FOR OPERATIONS
BELOW FL290, AND UKRAINE NOTAMS A0524/14 AND A0569/14 CLOSE VARIOUS
ATS ROUTE SEGMENTS. RUSSIAN FEDERATION NOTAM A0912/14 REJECTS AND
DIRECTLY CONFLICTS WITH UKRAINE NOTAMS A0520/14 AND A0524/14.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CIVIL AIRCRAFT TO RECEIVE
CONFUSING AND CONFLICTING ATC INSTRUCTIONS WHILE OPERATING IN THE
DISPUTED AIRSPACE.
OPERATIONS ARE NORMAL IN ALL OTHER UKRAINE FIRS. HOWEVER, UK
OPERATORS FLYING INTO, OUT OF, OR WITHIN LVOV (UKLV), KYIV
(UKBV), DNEPTROPETROVSK (UKDV), AND ODESSA (UKOV) FIRS, AS WELL AS
AIRSPACE IN THE SIMFEROPOL (UKFV) FIR THAT IS OUTSIDE THE LATERAL
LIMITS OF THE AIRSPACE OVER CRIMEA, THE BLACK SEA, AND THE SEA OF
AZOV DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF THIS NOTAM, SHOULD REVIEW
CURRENT SECURITY/THREAT INFORMATION AND NOTAMS

THE CONTENT OF THIS NOTAM SAFETY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED NEW: Thomsonfly (United Kingdom)">BY 01 AUG 2014."

Quoting Rara (Reply 129): Question is, why would anyone shoot down a civilian airliner. There's nothing in it for anyone. That's why we need to be careful accepting the Ukrainians' and Russians' claims as fact, as of now.

Lets see, Soviets and two Korean planes, US and one Iranian plane and thats just off the top of my head, I'm sure others will come up with other instances. I'm not sure they thought there was anything to be "gained" either but s... happens in tense situations!

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 97): I don't know why people always seem to say this about every crash. The FDR and CVR are sitting in a field right now. Someone just needs to go get them.

You'll note I prefaced that by saying "if it was shot down". I don't think the FDR or CVR will be any use at all in determining who fired the missile (if it was in fact shot down).

-Mir

Malaysia Airlines 9M-MRD last photo before crash taken today during take off at AMS

http://twitter.com/airchive/status/489804876382089216

[Edited 2014-07-17 09:17:12]

Not a good year for MH, that's for sure. Definitely don't see them being able to recover from both this and Flight 370. Thoughts and prayers to all onboard.

And on a somewhat eerie note, today marks both the 17th anniversary of 9M-MRD's maiden flight (per Airfleets), and the 18th anniversary of TWA 800, theorized by some to have also been shot down.

Quoting mattdell (Reply 124):

while we dont have the specifics, however, b/c modern day airplanes do not regularly fall out of the sky, its a safe assumption to start with this speculation given the area of flight.

IF this was a military action against a civil airliner, the implications will be huge.
Sad to see (again ) innocent people paying for the mistakes or simple stupidity of others.

RIP for this 295 souls.

G

Quoting olddominion727 (Reply 132): How likely is it for one carrier to lose 2 modern aircraft in less than a year especially a 777? c'mon, really? Who else is thinking sabotage?

It is very likely that a jumpy rebel commander supplied with high tech equipment decided to take down the 777, especially in light of the fact that he announced that he had shot down an Ukrainian AN-26 moments before the MH flight disappeared, and no reports yet of a missing AN-26..

The rebels are claiming credit for the shoot down via Twitter. Aside from re routing air traffic, the rebels got access to a very sophisticated missile system. Either the Russians gave it to them or the captured an intact one from Ukr. This won't help the rebel cause.

Do Malaysia and Russia have any beef with each other?

Quoting Rara (Reply 129): Question is, why would anyone shoot down a civilian airliner. There's nothing in it for anyone. That's why we need to be careful accepting the Ukrainians' and Russians' claims as fact, as of now.

It's an assumption that the civilian airliner was in fact the identified target if this is what happened.
The SA-11 isn't updated once it's fired. If it picked up the wrong target... that slow moving huge radar target instead of say the low flying military aircraft....

http://nos.nl/liveblog/676042-live-vliegtuig-uit-adam-neergestort.html

Looking at the first video on this blog... which seems to have started recording as the aircraft hits the ground ( the plume is visible only after a few seconds) and listening to the (russian language) comments seems the aircraft went down very fast indicating that this was not a typical "glide"...

Already lots of smartphone videos out there so hopefully somebody captured something more then a smoke plume... that might at least help in clarifying. I also doubt this is a shoulder fired missile... they run out of steam a lot lower and are infra red guided... something to distant from an aircraft at FL330. At the same time I doubt that so soon after the crash there is conclusive evidence of what kind of air defence system was used...
Obviously we are all curious what happened and some conclusions might seem obvious so lets see what comes out in the next few days and lets hope cool heads prevail because this could get messy very fast.
Finally, lets not forget that almost 300 people lost their lives a few hours ago... RIP to them and condolences to the families affected.

FVTu134

Quoting trex8 (Reply 139): Lets see, Soviets and two Korean planes, US and one Iranian plane and thats just off the top of my head, I'm sure others will come up with other instances

The most pertinent one is Siberia Airlines Flight 1812:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

Read up on that and decide whether you think we will ever find out the truth on this?

How do you confuse an An-26 with a 777 at cruise altitude?

They're kind of...nothing alike, other than the fact both have two engines.

Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 8): Whilst it is early to speculate this could well be a possibility and I'd rather it be this (as awful as it might sound) than a fault with the aircraft or crew.

Not sure I agree.
With all due respect, a problem with the crew or aircraft would mean a lot of headaches for airlines all over the world, and Boeing and the engine manufacturers, etc.. But if this was shot down, as it appears somewhat likely it was, this could have huge political ramifications, especially because it is likely there were lots of Europeans and possibly Americans on this flight. Tensions between Russia and Europe/North America are already high - if it is determined the Russians shot this down, it's gonna get worse. I don't think it will escalate this far but wars have been started for less.

Irony - today is also the sad anniversary of TWA 800, a flight that many believe was a shootdown conspiracy (I do not personally suscribe to this belief.) RIP to MH 17. Truly a bleak situation at the moment.

[Edited 2014-07-17 09:24:19]

This may be a serious ATC fail. According to several reports, the airspace over the Donbass region was closed to all traffic since Monday. If so, a couple of questions: 1) Was this route on the original filed flight plan? 2) Was the flight directed over this region if the airspace was supposedly off limits?

Quoting AviationAware (Reply 135): American media has never shied away from a rush to judgement, unfortunately.

How is this the US medias fault? All the newscasts I'm watching are quoting Interfax, a Russian news source.

Quoting 9VSIO (Reply 138):

I can't figure out why a pilot, never mind a pilot with 295 people behind him, would read that in preflight and still choose to fly in the area.
Pat

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 141): while we dont have the specifics, however, b/c modern day airplanes do not regularly fall out of the sky, its a safe assumption to start with this speculation given the area of flight.

I'd consider it highly unlikely that a 777 would go down like that because of an onboard issue during daytime over land.

First unconfirmed picture of a part of the fuselage on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/489804938470375425/photo/1

From Reuters: "Emergency Ministry official on site says body parts scattered around up to 15 km from crash site, at least 100 bodies seen"

Sounds like in-flight breakup of the fuselage

Possibly the last picture taken of 9M-MRD. Photo credit: www.twitter.com/SchipholSpot

Quoting casinterest (Reply 83): Well, according to the video's out. Many people witnessed it, as it happened in broad daylight in the Ukraine. Doesn't take much to take a report from an eyewitness. However as I said before, there is more corroborating evidence required. For all we know it could be a terrible TWA 800 coincidence.

Possible, but I have doubts that such a thing would happen to a 777 given the TWA800 learnings.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 97): I don't know why people always seem to say this about every crash. The FDR and CVR are sitting in a field right now. Someone just needs to go get them.

Yeah, someone may have already retrieved them to hide evidence. I'll bet someone that the official investigators "can't find the boxes" because a) they're hiding them or b) someone nabbed them.

This could be an Iran Air 655 thing all over again. If so, it's sad to think we have the same things going on 26 years later.

Quoting SuperCaravelle (Reply 139): Please no, the world has seen enough war.

One doesn't kill 300 people and just get away with it. If someone shot the plane down, they didn't do it on their own - they had backing from a government. And that government is going to have to answer some very hard questions.

-Mir