Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 2

timpdx · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:25 pm

I don't know how advanced this Buk AA system's warhead is, but a "continuous rod" warhead is designed to take down an airplane more though cutting than fragmentation. But this would have to be a pretty new warhead.

And it could certainly sever the empennage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous-rod_warhead

Primitive drawing on Wikipedia of how it works

[Edited 2014-07-17 11:26:20]

[Edited 2014-07-17 11:41:09]

sq452 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:26 pm

Just heard a report on the news that Russian separatists are saying they have the black boxes.

This will be an aircraft crash investigation in an active war zone. Not going to be easy but hopefully cooler heads prevail.

blrsea · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:26 pm

On what basis are the media saying that the flight was shot down? Did NATO or any country detect a missile launch? Has a missile launch been confirmed? Or are they alleging it because it happened in a war zone?

[Edited 2014-07-17 11:27:37]

jetblueguy22 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:27 pm

Fox is reporting Pro Russian separatists have found the black boxes.
Pat

Mir · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:29 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 99):
I respectfully ask all members to stay decent. It is a tragedy. The huge one.
And we all know that it will be used politically. We disagree in many things.
However, I very much hope that President Obama will not order troops on the ground in Ukraine.
If it happens, the situation can easily go out of control.

So far the only one who has mentioned this is you, so you seem pretty safe there.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 102):
Is 2 enough to be a pattern? Two Malaysian 777s lost en-route for no apparent reason. What are the chances?

Actually, we've got a pretty apparent reason for this one.

-Mir

holzmann · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:29 pm

How could the boxes been found THAT fast?

Consider the evidence gone.

KBJCpilot · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:29 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 93):
There are NATO AWACS flying around and following the crash Obama called Vladimir...does Obama knows something?

Obama and Putin know what happened as the area is being monitored by both NATO and Russian intelligence assets including AWACS. It's just a matter of time when an "un-named source" confirms what really happened.

We know that Putin will take the lead with this and Obama will lead from the rear in dealing with the rebels.

Eltomzo · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:29 pm

Interfax is saying Putin's plane crossed the route of the crashed Malaysian plane near Warsaw and that it could have been targeted at him? (i.e. by Ukrainian military)

He was flying back from a BRICS summit in Brazil today.

burchfiel · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:30 pm

Not to be Captain Obvious, but whichever side murdered these 300+ people will likely face immense international opposition. They just did themselves a major disservice.

AT · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:31 pm

Quoting sq452 (Reply 104):
Just heard a report on the news that Russian separatists are saying they have the black boxes.

This will be an aircraft crash investigation in an active war zone. Not going to be easy but hopefully cooler heads prevail.

Aren't they required to turn them in, regardless of whether or not it is an active war zone? Not doing so would be a criminal offense.

Also, unless they somehow break the equipment, wouldn't the pingers continue to work for ~30 days?

sipadan · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:32 pm

Pentagon sources saying they don't believe separatists had BUK missile. Hmmm.

Scorpio · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:33 pm

Extremely tragic facebook post, made by one of the passengers just before boarding in AMS:
https://twitter.com/joriskammenga/status/489802421917736960/photo/1

The text above the picture says: 'In case it disappears, this is what it looks like'.

[Edited 2014-07-17 11:44:20]

SCQ83 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:33 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 107):
How could the boxes been found THAT fast?

Consider the evidence gone.

They have found several passports. It seems like a good part of the debris is in a relatively small area.

USAIRWAYS321 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:34 pm

Quoting AT (Reply 110):
Aren't they required to turn them in, regardless of whether or not it is an active war zone? Not doing so would be a criminal offense.

Something tells me that people who shoot down commercial jets aren't very concerned about committing criminal offenses.

ranold76 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:34 pm

CNN showing zoomed video of small pieces of debris falling from sky AFTER the obvious fuselage ground impact occurred..

WildcatYXU · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting foxxray (Reply 95):
This sh*t can cause world war III !!!!

KAL 007 didn't cause WW 3 and it happened during the cold war. So I really doubt this incident - however tragic it is - would cause it.

Quoting DCA2011 (Reply 95):
How does someone mistake a massive commercial jetliner at 10,000m for a prop that would be going lower and slower, especially since the rebels already claim to have shot down several Ukranian -26s?

Lack of training could be the probable cause, as the BUK allegedly used to shot down MH17 was apparently captured.

Quoting Eltomzo (Reply 109):
Interfax is saying Putin's plane crossed the route of the crashed Malaysian plane near Warsaw and that it could have been targeted at him? (i.e. by Ukrainian military)

Warsaw is about 1000 kms NW from the incident site and the GC route from Brasil to Moscow is not even touching Ukrainian territory. So I'd call that statement rubbish.

FriendlySkies · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting AT (Reply 110):
Aren't they required to turn them in, regardless of whether or not it is an active war zone? Not doing so would be a criminal offense.

I'm fairly certain that engaging in active warfare against your country is also a criminal offense, so I don't think we'll be seeing much cooperation.

joeytaffy93 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 114):
Extremely tragic facebook post, made by one of the passengers just before boarding in AMS:
https://twitter.com/joriskammenga/status/489802421917736960/photo/1

The tekst above the picture says: 'In case it disappears, this is what it looks like'.

But the reg is MRC? Or is there a reflection making a D look like a C?

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:37 pm

They thought they had shot down a non-commercial airplane.

Quote:

AN-26 airplane was shot down near Torez, it fell somewhere behind the mine "Progress".
We warned - do not fly in "our sky".
And here is the video proof of another "bird-fall" (bird = slang for an airplane).
Another bird fell behind the spoil tip, residential areas were not affected.
No civilians were harmed.

enilria · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:37 pm

Quoting KBJCpilot (Reply 107):
We know that Putin will take the lead with this and Obama will lead from the rear in dealing with the rebels.

True

Quoting Eltomzo (Reply 108):

Interfax is saying Putin's plane crossed the route of the crashed Malaysian plane near Warsaw and that it could have been targeted at him? (i.e. by Ukrainian military)

I wonder if that is a fact or BS

Quoting sq452 (Reply 96):
Super creepy fact of the day:

There are too many coincidences here.

rfields5421 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:38 pm

Quoting d l x (Reply 97):
I would think that a missile does not have to actually impact the plane and blow a piece of it off, but rather just blowing near it, putting shrapnel in it, bending or disabling control surfaces, etc., could cripple the plane to the point where it is difficult or impossible to fly.

Very true.

From the pictures of debris that we have seen, the aircraft obviously broke apart - likely from aerodynamic forces as it became uncontrollable. Parts flying in many different trajectories and many not having anything which would be on fire.

Quoting blrsea (Reply 104):
On what basis are the media saying that the flight was shot down? Did NATO or any country detect a missile launch? Has a missile launch been confirmed? Or are they alleging it because it happened in a war zone?

When the plane was just first reported out of contact - rebels in the area announced that they had shot down a transport aircraft. Then once the destruction of the MH aircraft was confirmed, the rebels have removed all reference to shooting down an aircraft today from their web sites.

The first wide scale media reports were only of a missing aircraft presumed down. Then the rebel report of a shoot down, then the pictures that confirmed the MH plane had broken up in the air.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 107):
How could the boxes been found THAT fast?

When the plane broke up, it would have been easier to find the FDR/CVR. The tail structure is relatively intact and separated from the main body of the fuselage. The rebels in the area have shot down other aircraft and removed the FDR/CVR in recent weeks.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:39 pm

“A large passenger aircraft Boeing 777, performing a flight between Amsterdam and Kuala Lumpur, was shot down in the eastern part of Ukraine. According to the General Staff of Ukrainian Armed Forces, the airplane was shot down by the Russian Buk missile system as the liner was flying at an altitude of 10,000 meters. Ukraine has no long-range air defense missile systems in this area. The plane was shot down, because the Russian air defense systems was affording protection to Russian mercenaries and terrorists in this area. Ukraine will present the evidence of Russian military involvement into the Boeing crash.”

http://www.nycaviation.com/2014/07/b...ian-777-shot-ukraine/

[Edited 2014-07-17 11:39:58]

cylw · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:39 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 114):
Extremely tragic facebook post, made by one of the passengers just before boarding in AMS:
https://twitter.com/joriskammenga/status/489802421917736960/photo/1

The tekst above the picture says: 'In case it disappears, this is what it looks like'.

The reg on the nose in that picture says RC as in 9M-MRC.

MAS17 was 9M-MRD

Manta · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:39 pm

Quoting sq452 (Reply 96):
Super creepy fact of the day:

TWA 800 crashed 18 years ago today. Wow. (Brian Williams on NBC News just mentioned it)

Even more super creepy fact: The MH17 (9M-MRD) plane first flew on July 17, 1997 - 17 years ago today.

rfields5421 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 111):
Extremely tragic facebook post,

Quoting cylw (Reply 122):
The reg on the nose in that picture says RC as in 9M-MRC.

MAS17 was 9M-MRD

These type of fake posts are becoming all to common after almost any kind of major 'accident'. There were several after MH317 disappeared, after AF447, etc.

All should be considered as sick hoaxes until proven otherwise.

CF-CPI · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:45 pm

Quoting Manta (Reply 123):
Even more super creepy fact: The MH17 (9M-MRD) plane first flew on July 17, 1997 - 17 years ago today.

Sadly, it was also the wearing a special livery not too long ago - the blue 'fern' design.

SANflyr · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:46 pm

Quoting Manta (Reply 123):
Quoting sq452 (Reply 96):
Super creepy fact of the day:

TWA 800 crashed 18 years ago today. Wow. (Brian Williams on NBC News just mentioned it)

Even more super creepy fact: The MH17 (9M-MRD) plane first flew on July 17, 1997 - 17 years ago today.

Reminds me of the day construction started on the Pentagon....September 11, 1941.

JFKMan · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:47 pm

Large sections of plane in tact... which would lead us to believe it was indeed hit by a missile. Scary stuff....

hivue · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:47 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 110):
Pentagon sources saying they don't believe separatists had BUK missile. Hmmm.

Reference?

transswede · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting sq452 (Reply 95):
Super creepy fact of the day:

TWA 800 crashed 18 years ago today. Wow. (Brian Williams on NBC News just mentioned it)

How is this super creepy? There are only 365 days in a year. The odds that a plane would go down on the same calendar day as a previous plane would go down is not that unusual.

(Will mods delete this too? I guess it is fine to to point out "super creepy coincidences", but not OK to debunk them)

slinky09 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:52 pm

The BBC ran an unconfirmed item that 24 US citizens were onboard.

If the boxes have been recovered then President Obama should call Putin instantly and demand access to them by the NTSB and all other relevant authorities. Anything else will simply confirm Russian collusion.

Plane Holland · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):

What they should have done months ago.

Scorpio · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 124):
These type of fake posts are becoming all to common after almost any kind of major 'accident'. There were several after MH317 disappeared, after AF447, etc.

All should be considered as sick hoaxes until proven otherwise.

Actually, this one unfortunately seems to be real: in some other tweets showing this message the original poster's name is visible. Quickly looked on Facebook to see if the account was real. It is, and the message is there, posted 9 hours ago, that's before the flight took off. Lots of his fb friends' reactions all point to him being on the plane. Very sad...

CrimsonNL · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:55 pm

Quoting cylw (Reply 122):
The reg on the nose in that picture says RC as in 9M-MRC.

MAS17 was 9M-MRD

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 124):

These type of fake posts are becoming all to common after almost any kind of major 'accident'. There were several after MH317 disappeared, after AF447, etc.

It's MRD!! The picture is legit. The ship number RD on the right hand nose gear door was faded over the letter D, combined with the camera angle it looks like a C. But it's RD and this picture was taken today.

Martijn

slider · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:55 pm

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 103):
Fox is reporting Pro Russian separatists have found the black boxes.

Which means it'll never be seen from again.

hivue · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:56 pm

Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 115):
Quoting foxxray (Reply 95):This sh*t can cause world war III !!!!
KAL 007 didn't cause WW 3

Nor did Iran Air 655.

hloutweg · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:57 pm

Quoting part147 (Reply 42):
Why wouldn't they leave all the passports with their owners? Surely gathering them up like this will make identifying them more difficult?

In a plane crash, these kind of items don't necessarily remain near their owners, or even the crash site.

Unfortunate. Mind boggling to see the extent of human stupidity affect the lives of innocent people. We have seen airliners full of people be shot down in conflict zones before, so I'm sure much more could have been done to prevent something like this.

transswede · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 138):
Quoting WildcatYXU (Reply 115):
Quoting foxxray (Reply 95):This sh*t can cause world war III !!!!
KAL 007 didn't cause WW 3

Nor did Iran Air 655.

Exactly. The number of world wars caused by shot down airliners: ZERO

capri · Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:59 pm

I know stuff being shown on Russia24 is graphic, but am sure some TV investigators will determine what have happened to this aircraft structurally unlike images posted on CNN

stuff being shown on russian tv is surreal

AR385 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:00 pm

If it was a radar missile then it must have locked on the biggest part of the airliner the radar detected. Depending on its trajectory of course. Would that be the empennage or underside central section? That plume of smoke we keep seeing on the news must have been a wing full of fuel impacting . I doubt the plane remained intact on its way down. I hope it was quick for those on board.

GDB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:01 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 131):
Not very far, however.

He has very deliberately cranked up the escalation in Ukraine because he clearly believed that it would suit his expansionist objectives.

It is likely that he has already miscalculated by expecting the western response to be as tepid as it had been with the russian invasion of Georgia; I doubt that he really expected the sanctions which are hitting the russian economy hard even now.

And it is quite likely that he underestimated the risk of something like this being the result of his sustained support for the ukrainian separatists.

The problem with riding the cutting edge of the razor is that it can very well turn out to be a huge pain in the behind when you don't have a movie script writer on your side but you're dealing with the actual real world instead.

It will start to dawn on even the most loyal Putin supporters that they've cheered him on while he was opening Pandora's box. This is a direct result of Putin's active and deliberate escalation, regardless whether it was in fact a russian operative or just one of the thugs they've been supporting pulling the trigger.

This changes everything (and will have an impact even domestically in Russia), and my guess is that Putin is at least capable of realizing how deep he's in it right now.

Totally agree.
Awful, tragic, unreal it seems given who the operator is.
But it could just as easily as happened to the airliners of plenty of nations, there will likely be a mix of them amongst those today killed by a terrifying act of negligence, fuelled it seemed by bravado.
That is what Putin, if he even can, will have to reconcile and act accordingly and end this whole half baked, Warsaw Pact revivalist crap.

planespotting · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:02 pm

Quoting Slider (Reply 137):
Which means it'll never be seen from again.

The black box wouldn't exactly be of any help to show who shot down the aircraft.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:03 pm

Everyone keeps talking about TWA 800, MH17 also reminds me about Korean Air Lines Flight 007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

paparadzi · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:06 pm

I'm saddened by what happened to my colleagues on MH 17. Just flew Romeo Delta last Sunday.

At this moment I'm in shock, speechless and traumatic. I've seen the crew list, and I know all the technical crew personally as well as some of the cabin crew.

May they all rest in peace.

Miami · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:06 pm

Emirates has suspended flights to Kiev. Their US/other European flights do not fly over zone involving MH17 incident

Vio · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:07 pm

I'm watching RT now and eyewitnesses report that they heard "three distinct explosions" and saw the plane crashing and one of its wings falling off before it hit the ground...

Scipio · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:08 pm

A Buk system was observed moving around in the (rebel-held) area of the crash today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkgwxxhJlk4&feature=youtu.be

https://www.facebook.com/EuroMaydan/photos/a.523254484437560.1073741828.523004674462541/652716618158012

DiscoverCSG · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:08 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 90):
I made a facetious comment earlier about avoiding the Middle East, but on this flightradar map does it look like Syria is being avoided?

Yes, commercial flight tracks are generally avoiding Syria these days. I flew UA's IAD-KWI-IAD service this winter, and the flight paths in both directions had that obvious curve near the northeast corner of Syria, going straight up and down Iraq.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 105):
How could the boxes been found THAT fast?

They've found many other parts that fast. I doubt much if anything is underwater or deep in a jungle or on the side of a mountain, since the area appears to be flat and open to a large extent.

iad51fl · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:09 pm

May have missed it earlier... but wasn't President Putin returning from India about that time?

The presidential IL-96 has a gray bottom, and red and blue stripes along the sides.

The MH aircraft also has a gray bottom with red and blue stripes along the sides.

Not sure what each of these planes would look like from the ground at 33k feet but could it have been an assassination attempt by the Ukrainians but got the wrong aircraft?

CE

9MMAR · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:12 pm

The saddest day in my life as an aviation enthusiast, a Malaysian and a MH frequent flyer.

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