Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

bnatraveler · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:45 pm

Hi All,

The previous thread became quite long so Part 3 has been created to continue the conversation.

We ask that you please be respectful to the victim's families. In addition do NOT post pictures of the crash site if they contain victims. We ask that you link to them with a warning.

Additionally, this is a charged environment so please refrain from political, polarizing or likely flame-baiting comments in your replies.

Thank you for your cooperation.

BNAtraveler

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:49 pm

Someone captured (at least, that's what he claims) MH17 in the air before it was shot down:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWDGIRqmKsg

[Edited 2014-07-17 12:50:14]

BEG2IAH · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:50 pm

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 191):
Russians might only know that, but the rest of us can see it for what it is.

How would this benefit Russia and Putin? I would really like to understand the logic behind this idea. Thanks.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:51 pm

Dutch story about a lucky guy who escaped both MH370 and MH17:

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/31172/Rampv...tsnapt-aan-MH370-en-aan-MH17.dhtml

Maverick623 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:51 pm

Quoting BEG2IAH (Reply 2):
How would this benefit Russia and Putin?

More of a "reap what you sow" than a planned happening by a high official.

LOWS · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:52 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 185):
We also know Russian sepratists have missles supplied by Russia... that those same separatists bragged about shooting down a plane today - only to remove those comments after learning that the MH airliner was downed. Maybe Russian news doesn't allow that information to be published, but in free societies it is readily available.

Here is a rather detailed article on the weapons system that (probably) shot the plane down.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1...ot-down-ukraine-was-it-intentional

And now, from Twitter, @Kateryna_Kruk, the Russian troops are blocking access to the aircraft and will send the black boxes to Moscow.

Quoting BEG2IAH (Reply 2):
How would this benefit Russia and Putin? I would really like to understand the logic behind this idea. Thanks.

It doesn't. But he's lost control over a situation he started.

Klaus · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:54 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 177):
For those blaming one side and not the other, I would remind you that the Ukrainian Air Force already has one sucessful shoot-down of a civilian aircraft in 2001. A T154 flying from Tel-Aviv to Novosibirsk.

Until more information is know it is stupid to make accuasations towards one side of a conflict.

All we know now is that an aircraft crashed in a war zone. Thats it.

No, we already know quite a number of things at this point:

• the aircraft has crashed, with no survivors

• the crash site is in the separatist-held area close to the russian border

• separatists have already been very active with anti-aircraft missiles in the last days, shooting down an ukrainian military transport aircraft among others

• separatists are in possession of at least one high-altitude-capable "Buk" surface-to-air missile battery (screenshots of the since-deleted tweets about their possession of these missiles also exist)

• separatists have support from russian military specialists of various kinds

• there are multiple reports and screenshots of the separatists even having claimed responsibility for the hit – just in the mistaken assumption that they had again hit a ukrainian military transport; those posts have been deleted promptly after the true nature of the hit becoming clear, but will most likely be recovered on the Twitter servers

The situation is already very far from neutral even at this very early stage.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 178):
Some of the pictures seen repeatedly on Russia Today can't possibly be of a 777 crash site, we see much smaller engines, I'm guessing from the Ilyushin Il-76 that was shot down previously.

Some of the images show at least one huge fan disc; Others may well have some of the smaller compressor or turbine stages from the engines.

Klaus · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:56 pm

Quoting LOWS (Reply 5):
And now, from Twitter, @Kateryna_Kruk, the Russian troops are blocking access to the aircraft and will send the black boxes to Moscow.

Russia admits having troops at the crash site on ukrainian soil? That would be highly problematic.

redadeco · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:57 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):

Someone captured (at least, that's what he claims) MH17 in the air before it was shot down:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWDGI...qmKsg

I don't believe this, the sky is crystal clear whilst it's pretty cloudy on footage from the actual crash site.

LOWS · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:57 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 7):
Russia admits having troops at the crash site on ukrainian soil? That would be highly problematic.

Well, Russian citizens fighting the Ukrainian government.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:58 pm

Quoting redadeco (Reply 8):
I don't believe this, the sky is crystal clear whilst it's pretty cloudy on footage from the actual crash site.

You may be right. There's a lot of conflicting information floating on the internet.

D L X · Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:59 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):

Someone captured (at least, that's what he claims) MH17 in the air before it was shot down:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWDGIRqmKsg

That is an absolutely incredible video. That has to be it! Look at how crazy that thing is flying, with all those very tight turns. I think we're either looking at the plane after it was hit, or the missile hitting the plane.

M1chl · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:00 pm

Hey guy, there is a video floating around youtube (it gets deleted every time), it captures conversation between separatist. Here is transcript from that video (its obviously in Russian). Sorry if thats already being discussed, just strikes me as the most probable cause, so here it is.

Quote:

A: terrorist leader "Bes" (Devil)
B: his GRU chief

A: Shot down a plane just now. Group "Minera". Fell down near Enakievo.
B: Pilots, where are the pilots?
A: We're going to the crash site to take photos, still smoking.
B: How many minutes ago?
A: 30 minutes or so.

Two terrorists talking:

C: Yes, "Mayor"!
D: So, "chernuhin" brigade shot down the plane, from Chernuhin block-post. Cossacks, who are located there/
D: Plane broke up in air, near Petropavlovsk mine. Found first 200 (code for dead person), civilian.
C: What's going on there?
D: 100% civilian plane.
C: Lots of people there?
D: Holy shit, plane fragments fell on houses.
C: Type of plane?
D: Still working on that, haven't been near main part. Looking where first bodies started to drop.
D: Parts of plane, seats, bodies.
C: Any weapons?
D: Nope, civilian stuff, medicine, towels, toilet paper.
C: Any documents?
D: Yes, Indonedian student, from Thompson University.

Two other terrorists talking:

E: About this plane, shot down near Snezhnoy - Torez. Appers it's civilian plane. Fell down near Grabovo, sea of bodies, women, children. Cossacks are inspecting it.
E: TV is saying it looks like AN-26, ukrainian, transport, but Malaysian Airways are written on it. What was it doing on Ukraine's territory?
F: Transporting spies. No need to fly here, in the war zone.

Video is here (Its like 10 reupload, so it might be taken down again) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5E8kDo2n6g
Transcript belongs to user name Fxp from neogaf.com

pvjin · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:01 pm

Quoting d l x (Reply 11):
That is an absolutely incredible video. That has to be it! Look at how crazy that thing is flying, with all those very tight turns. I think we're either looking at the plane after it was hit, or the missile hitting the plane.

MH17 isn't the only plane shot down in Ukraine lately, that video could possibly be from some other case too.

MD11Engineer · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:02 pm

Repost from the previous thread:

The BUK (or SA-11) system does not just consist of the launcher tank depicted in the pictures. Actuallya BUK batteryconsists of 4 launcher tanks, a launcher/loader tank , a command tank and a tank with a surveillance radar, plus assorted trucks for supply and support. I would guess that the system requires at least 30 trained soldiers to set it up and to operate it (plus an equal sized security element). It isn't just aim, press the trigger once, wait for the beep as the signal that the heat seeker has locked onto the target and press the trigger again to launch the missile. I wonder how the separatists got such a trained crew together, unless a whole SA-11 (BUK) battery has switched sides to them.

Jan

D L X · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:02 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 6):
No, we already know quite a number of things at this point:

• the aircraft has crashed, with no survivors

• the crash site is in the separatist-held area close to the russian border

• separatists have already been very active with anti-aircraft missiles in the last days, shooting down an ukrainian military transport aircraft among others

• separatists are in possession of at least one high-altitude-capable "Buk" surface-to-air missile battery (screenshots of the since-deleted tweets about their possession of these missiles also exist)

• separatists have support from russian military specialists of various kinds

• there are multiple reports and screenshots of the separatists even having claimed responsibility for the hit – just in the mistaken assumption that they had again hit a ukrainian military transport; those posts have been deleted promptly after the true nature of the hit becoming clear, but will most likely be recovered on the Twitter servers

The situation is already very far from neutral even at this very early stage.

Agreed. It would be an absolutely amazing coincidence that a plane crashed from cruise, and that crash just happened to be over a war zone.

it would be imprudent to *conclude* that it was a missile strike before conclusive evidence is revealed, but that should be at the top of the list of things to consider.

You know that old adage about how when you hear hoofsteps, think horses not zebras? It applies... unless you're in Africa.

Scipio · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:04 pm

Ukrainian intelligence allegedly intercepted rebel communications about the shooting-down of MH17. In the first conversation, rebels report that they have shot down an aircraft. In the second conversation, they report that the aircraft is civilian and that a passport of an Indonesian student was found at the crash site:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5E8kDo2n6g

Heavierthanair · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:05 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):
Someone captured (at least, that's what he claims) MH17 in the air before it was shot down

At 18 seconds into the video a rocket trail is clearlty visible

It appears to be turning to home in on the target

remcor · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:09 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 6):
No, we already know quite a number of things at this point:

We also know that the rebels do not have an air force. This implies that the Ukrainian's did not have an incentive to aggressively monitor their airspace to deter/deny any rebel planes. The rebels, however did have a strong incentive.

s5daw · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:09 pm

This is from reddit user C172Driver:

This is going to get lost in this thread, but this NOTAM (notice to airmen) was published at 00z on 17JUL14 (aka this morning, 10 hours before departure of MH17).
URRV V6158/14 17JUL0000-31AUG2359 EST DUE TO COMBAT ACTIONS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE UKRAINE NEAR THE STATE BORDER WITH THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE FACTS OF FRNG FM THE TERRITORY OF THE UKRAINE TOWARDS THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION, TO ENSURE INTL FLT SAFETY, ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD AS FLW: A100 MIMRA - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/DME (RND), B145 KANON - ASMIL, G247 MIMRA - BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA), A87 TAMAK - SARNA
The thing to note there is the last airways segment, A87 between TAMAK - SARNA. MH17's flight plan filed directly over this segment of airway.
-N0490F310 ARNEM UL620 SUVOX UZ713 OSN UL980 MOBSA DCT POVEL DCT SUI L980 UTOLU/N0490F330 L980 LDZ M70 BEMBI L980 PEKIT/N0480F350 L980 B449 RANAH L750 ZB G201 BI DCT MURLI DCT TIGER/N0490F370 L333 KKJ L759 PUT R325 VIH A464 DAKUS DCT
TAMAK/N0480F350 A87 TIROM/N0490F350 A87 MAMED
Essentially A87 is an airway, and it was supposed to not to be flown on between these two waypoints, which was about a 100 mile segment.
Image of what I am talking about. (not taking credit for image)
So in summary, NOTAM was issue for closed airway (for flight safety reason). Malaysia 17 was planned to fly over it anyway, filed flight plan and took off after this NOTAM went effective. Per the flight plan, the airplane departed around 1000 UTC on the 17th, the NOTAM went effective on 0000 UTC on the 17th.

solarflyer22 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:10 pm

Quoting d l x (Reply 11):
That is an absolutely incredible video. That has to be it! Look at how crazy that thing is flying, with all
those very tight turns. I think we're either looking at the plane after it was hit, or the missile hitting the plane.

Yeah, that was it spinning out of control. Problem is I did not see a puff when the missile. Its possible it was an inflight break up.

I think it was a clear in Ukraine. Not cloudy or rainy so its consistent with the day/time.

A388 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:12 pm

As this area is beingclosely watched by other countries due to the unrest in that region, shouldn't foreign millitary forces be able to see what happened via their own millitary satellites?

A388

Tobias2702 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:15 pm

Quoting d l x (Reply 11):
That is an absolutely incredible video. That has to be it! Look at how crazy that thing is flying, with all those very tight turns. I think we're either looking at the plane after it was hit, or the missile hitting the plane.

This video is NOT of MH17, but of an An-26 that was shot sown a few days ago. Your can hear people talking about soldiers jumping out of the doomed aircraft using parachutes.

Considering the impact of this new tragedy on Malaysia Airlines: They are now two longhaul aircraft short from what they had half a year ago, how can/will this be compensated?

antskip · Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:16 pm

The conservative Russian newspaper Pravda is reporting that Ukranian forces in the area of the crash deployed a Buk medium range missile system there only a day ago. In the same article it is claimed that the Militias do not have an equivalent missile system. http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspo...128074-boeing_shot_down_ukraine-0/

Another article details of yesterday's downing by Militia of a Ukranian Su-25, but one must assume using a system not also capable of shooting down a plane at 10,000 meters. http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspo...2014/128070-kiev_moscow_planes-0/.

However, to counter the Pravda view: "In a Facebook post, Mr. Gerashchenko alleged that the separatists had obtained a Buk surface-to-air missile system that he said locals saw them parading near the towns of Snizhne and Torez during the day on Thursday. He said a convoy with the anti-aircraft missile was seen heading toward Shakhtarsk, a town not far from the crash site, about an hour before the plane went down late Thursday afternoon."
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