Quoting BigJKU (Reply 37): It doesn't quite work that way...these are not the all seeing eye up in the sky. You watch too many movies I think.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 38): Depends upon where the intel gathering assets were focused. You can't cover a whole wide area with just a few. You miss things.

Quoting speedygonzales (Reply 43): Military satellites can do a lot of things, but they can not break the laws of physics.

Thanks guys, I was just asking a question and for the record, no I'm not watching too many movies. In any case as per another post, the U.S. intelligence does confirm the aircraft was hit by a surface-to-air missile. The question is who it came from.


A388

Missile found at the crash site.


http://twitter.com/OrionsCloud/status/489865891258322945/

Quoting tu204 (Reply 51): Pointing fingers at this early of a time while not knowing any facts is foolish.

We don't need to point fingers. The Russian separatists were bragging about it - until they discovered they had shot down the wrong plane.

Quoting M1chl (Reply 12): Hey guy, there is a video floating around youtube (it gets deleted every time), it captures conversation between separatist. Here is transcript from that video (its obviously in Russian). Sorry if thats already being discussed, just strikes me as the most probable cause, so here it is.

I'm seeing another report to back this up at KyivPost.

Seems like the separatists fired a Buk or similar and asked questions later. They are assuming that any plane over their disputed area. Here is a transcript released by SBU (Ukrainian Intelligence Service) between rebels and their Russian masters regarding Cossak's who pulled the trigger

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...sation-full-transcript-356545.html

QUOTED BELOW
"igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).

Vasili Geranin: Pilots. Where are the pilots?

IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.

VG: How many minutes ago?

IB: About 30 minutes ago.

SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.

“Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.

“Grek”: Yes, Major.

"Major": The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.

“Greek”: Well, what do you have there?

“Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.

“Greek”: Are many people there?

“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).

“Greek”: What kind of aircraft?

“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.

“Greek”: Is there anything left of the weapon?

“Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.

“Greek”: Are there documents?

“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson.

Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.

They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?

Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on."

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 37): It doesn't quite work that way...these are not the all seeing eye up in the sky. You watch too many movies I think.

Except the US still has early warning sat systems left over from the cold war that watch eastern Europe and Russia for heat plumes that are characteristic of rocket launches. Now that we're hearing that intel services detected the rocket launch, its likely that such a system was what gave it away.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 48): Radar system saw a surface-to-air missile system turn on & track an aircraft right before plane was shot down:

What radar system are they talking about? Was there an AWACS plane tracking the Ukrainian air space? Or do they actually mean the US satellite system that is able to detect ballistic missiles launches from their infra red signature?

Congress: MH17 Crash is ‘Act of Terror,’ and Putin May Be to Blame.

Quote: “The shooting down, if it’s true, of a passenger airliner is an act of terror,” Rep. Elliott Engel, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told The Daily Beast. “It’s no different from the acts of terror Iran has been perpetrating for many years… The world community should get together and decide on a solidified response.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...ror-and-putin-may-be-to-blame.html

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1): Someone captured (at least, that's what he claims) MH17 in the air before it was shot down:

That is apparently the AN-26 being shot down a few days earlier.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 34): As far as I've heard they captured at least one unit when they conquered a ukrainian military post. And since they've got support from russian military specialists they could well be able to operate it. That they've successfully downed more than one ukrainian miltary aircraft recently (and bragged about it) makes that very plausible.

If this happened it would have to be one heck of a lucky shot for someone without any training to operate a system for the first time and hit a plane flying at 30,000ft. Not to mention the weather causing the plane being obscured by clouds.

Apparently 154 Dutch people were aboard MH17.

http://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/489874261310726145

Quoting Tobias2702 (Reply 24): Your can hear people talking about soldiers jumping out of the doomed aircraft using parachutes.

I heard that too (the word being similar in Russian as in English and French) however I didn't see anything of the sort. It's pretty far frankly to be able to see people, I've watched skydivers exiting airplanes from much much closer and they're not that easy to spot. I agree that we hear propeller(s) noise however.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 34): As far as I've heard they captured at least one unit when they conquered a ukrainian military post

The Ukrainian government stated that no such systems where stationed in Eastern Ukraine. So it couldn't have come from them.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 51): I was more referring to the question of "who" shot it down

KarelXWB posted a twitter message in the first thread post # 256 where Ukrainian Separists claim shooting down the plane. There's also a picture of a BUK.

Quoting SIA747Megatop (Reply 46): Is it possible that video is from some other shot down aircraft?

I think that is correct. It may be the AN-26 shot down on the 14th?

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 61):

Yes
Press conference (@nederland2) where it is confirmed by a malaysian airline representative....

RIP....
No words....

154 dutch
27 australians
23 malaysians
11 indonesian
49 still not identified

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 42): First high-detail photos are available (there are no bodies visible):

I wonder what these kids, I repeat KIDS, dressed up like little Rambos are thinking of now, when watching the crash-site.

Whoever provided these kids with such a deadly weapon is responsible for the children, women and men laying there in between the debris, IMO.

I can't express my feelings about what happened today.

Los Angeles Times | July 17, 2014 | 1:46 PM
U.S. intelligence has confirmed that a surface-to-air missile was fired at the Malaysian Airlines passenger jet that crashed in Ukraine, a senior U.S. official told the Los Angeles Times. It's not yet clear who fired the missile, however.

Quoting DCA2011 (Reply 56): Except the US still has early warning sat systems left over from the cold war that watch eastern Europe and Russia for heat plumes that are characteristic of rocket launches. Now that we're hearing that intel services detected the rocket launch, its likely that such a system was what gave it away.

Yeah, this is a possibility and I have no doubt that the IR sats could likely have their threshold turned down enough to pickup a SAM launch but that is really not what they are made for. They are made to catch ballistic rockets being launched. In a normal operating mode they likely would probably not warn of such a thing as it would lead to many false alerts and diminish their main purpose. I don't think anyone knows if it would or would not pickup a launch of something as relatively low energy as an SA-11.

What I think is far more likely is that something picked up the radar signals.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 53): Missile found at the crash site.

Wouldn't a missile explode??

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 53):

Not saying it wasn't a missile, I am however doubting that it was THIS particular missile.

Anyone that has any basic knowledge of how a missile intercept of an aircraft in flight works would probably agree with me here:

How do you find debris from a missile that intercepted an aircraft and exploded among the debris field of the target aircraft? We're not talking about piercing elements, but structural elements of the missile here.

If this "debris" was found 10km+ from the main debris field, I might be more inclined to believe that photo.

I do believe that a missile shot down this flight, but I would like to point to all the dubious "claims" from "sources" that are popping up left, right and center right now.

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 66): 154 dutch 27 australians 23 malaysians 11 indonesian 49 still not identified

To be more precise:

> 154 Dutch
> 27 Australian
> 23 Malaysian
> 11 Indonesian
> 6 British
> 4 German
> 4 Belgian
> 4 Filipino
> 1 Canadian

47x still unknown

Source:
http://twitter.com/plane_spot/status/489877951643942912

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:05:47]

I'd have thought that surely the military (even the Russian rebels) could at least have a laptop PC with radar24.com so that they could see what civilian aircraft are in the sky above them before they start shooting at anything that moves. They could just as well have hit a British Airways, Emirates or even an Aeroflot flight. I bet if you look back over the past few weeks most European and Asian airlines have probably passed over exactly the same spot. International flights overfly Iraq and Afghanistan all the time. Most of Emirates' flights to Europe fly over Iraq.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 73): 47x still unknown

23 Americans?

Quoting BEG2IAH (Reply 2): How would this benefit Russia and Putin?

It doesn't...but the Russian military, while having some highly effective units, also has a lot of ill-trained units...and often has dealt with a lack of centralized command and control regarding leadership.

My personal opinion is someone across the border had an itchy trigger finger.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 71): Wouldn't a missile explode??

The warhead would. The tail is often intact.

A proximity fused missile will explode near the target, and do it's damage by fragmentation and shock wave. It will weaken/crack/break parts off of the plane and the aero forces will finish the job.

It won't actually impact the target.

More wreckage

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 77): It doesn't...but the Russian military, while having some highly effective units, also has a lot of ill-trained units...and often has dealt with a lack of centralized command and control regarding leadership. My personal opinion is someone across the border had an itchy trigger finger.

There's quite a lot of evidence pointing to rebels being the ones who shot it down. Probably they received equipment and assistance from Russia but lacked the proper organization and training of actual Russian soldiers, even if that isnt' too great either.

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 77): My personal opinion is someone across the border had an itchy trigger finger.

Are you sure? Buk's range is not enough to come from the Russian territory.

There are reports that the black boxes are being sent to Moscow, isn't that illegal? Ukraine, Malaysia, United States (Boeing), and the UK (RR) are the only ones with jurisdiction over the crash correct?

I understand it is a war zone but can't the Russia be sued for violating the Chicago convention?

Quoting DCA2011 (Reply 56): Except the US still has early warning sat systems left over from the cold war that watch eastern Europe and Russia for heat plumes that are characteristic of rocket launches. Now that we're hearing that intel services detected the rocket launch, its likely that such a system was what gave it away.

Those were designed for something much bigger and hotter than a SAM. They are 'detuned' for lack of a better word to ignore small missiles to avoid false positives.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 57): What radar system are they talking about?

A radar will not tell if a missile is tracking a target unless it makes changes in trajectory. However electronic intelligence systems pick up radar waves and can tell if the missile has target tracking radar on and its reports back to its launch complex what the missile is tracking.

They are possibly talking about the radar tracking in the missile itself,

or more likely being journalists who think all aircraft tracking by ATC worldwide is by skin paints.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 71): Wouldn't a missile explode??

Depends upon the warhead type. Most do explode the warhead. It might be a two stage missile. It might be a kinetic missile.

Personally I doubt the photo has anything to do with this aircraft loss.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 75): I'd have thought that surely the military (even the Russian rebels) could at least have a laptop PC with radar24.com so that they could see what civilian aircraft are in the sky above them before they start shooting at anything that moves.

I would be shocked if any military anywhere in the world uses such systems.

For one they are not reliable enough to positively identify aircraft. The position reports are not real-time enough for military purposes.

For another, the military may have access to the civilian ATC network and it may not. Depends upon the nation.

For another, this is an area where it is very likely government (Ukraine) military aircraft might hide as they try to infiltrate as civilian aircraft.

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:13:26]

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 79): The warhead would. The tail is often intact. A proximity fused missile will explode near the target, and do it's damage by fragmentation and shock wave. It will weaken/crack/break parts off of the plane and the aero forces will finish the job. It won't actually impact the target.

Perhaps I wasn't detailed enough in my post.

You are correct in that the warhead explodes and the tail of the missile could remain mostly intact. However keep in mind that the missile is
a) travelling at a velocity much higher than the target aicraft
and
b) at an intercept trajectory, meaning it is most likely not on a parralel course to it's target.

In conclusion: it is very, extremely, highly unlikely that you will find a structural part of the missile in the debris of it's target. Especially if this target was intercepted at an altitude of 10,200m.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 63): The Ukrainian government stated that no such systems where stationed in Eastern Ukraine. So it couldn't have come from them

And you believe them just because they said so? Stop being naive everybody would deny such accusations after they shot down a civilian jet by mistake. Personally I don't believe either one of them, until hard evidence will surface that can point on the guilty ones.

Viper911

I would like to know how Malaysia is going to recover from this and MH370. It's going to be tough.

Quoting yv773p (Reply 83): I understand it is a war zone but can't the Russia be sued for violating the Chicago convention?

We don't know if Russia will keep the black boxes, maybe they are just securing them. The White House confirmed that Obama and Putin have talked on the phone, I presume they will work something out at a later stage.

http://twitter.com/AirlineReporter/status/489830431572123649

While I haven't read every report in the news, I'm wondering what the possibility is that MH17 was able to make some type of controlled landing. Despite the video of a fireball, I'm comparing in my mind the descriptions of the MH17 debris field vs. what is left in the aftermath of a crash such as UA93.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 57): What radar system are they talking about? Was there an AWACS plane tracking the Ukrainian air space? Or do they actually mean the US satellite system that is able to detect ballistic missiles launches from their infra red signature?

I don't know the specifics of the Buk system in question, but this kind of SAM would usually be radar-targeted and maybe -guided. And that targeting / guidance radar should be detectable by an outside observer.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 60): If this happened it would have to be one heck of a lucky shot for someone without any training to operate a system for the first time and hit a plane flying at 30,000ft.

It's well-known that russian specialists operate with the ukrainian separatists. Since those are russian systems to begin with, the separatists should not have major problems getting them operational with russian support. And that they've hit multiple ukrainian military aircraft within the past few days already only supports that assumption.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 60): Not to mention the weather causing the plane being obscured by clouds.

There were clear skies.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 63): The Ukrainian government stated that no such systems where stationed in Eastern Ukraine. So it couldn't have come from them.

They've said that they had no such systems stationed in the area. The separatists, however, do, and they've even bragged about it.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 75): I'd have thought that surely the military (even the Russian rebels) could at least have a laptop PC with radar24.com so that they could see what civilian aircraft are in the sky above them before they start shooting at anything that moves.

That would be diffcult at best (where would they get their internet connection in these areas?) and inadvisable at worst (accesses to such sites via observable internet connections would immediately make the location of such a laptop a target).

I'm curious as to how useful the black boxes could serve in this case (unlike for the MH 370 flight), especially given that the cause of the crash isn't really being debated, and the reasons for it will not be answered by the data recorders.

Quoting AirDFW (Reply 47): If it is true that separatists were responsible for the shooting down of this plane, then it is Russian Govt that is ultimately responsible. Putin thought he can keep the Ukraine situation just enough boiling so keep the Govt in Kiev permanently off guard. Now the situation is out of control and Mr. Putin is responsible for this plane crash.

More sanctions? Or do you think it will be a more severe punishment? There are a lot of emotions right now and that is understandable, this was probably a needless catastrophe. But I doubt other countries are going to be jumping in to start a war over this.
Personally I don't think this event, as horrible and tragic as it is, will change anything much as far as fighting in the Ukraine goes. Besides a lot more sympathy from the rest of the world. and some deeper cuts that probably punish the countries delivering the sanctions as much as Russia, I doubt anybody will ever be brought to justice for this crime (if it is one) and it wouldn't surprise me if the pilots of the doomed flight are posthumously blamed in a cover up. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Quoting yv773p (Reply 83): I understand it is a war zone but can't the Russia be sued for violating the Chicago convention?

D00d, this is Putin--when the 'official' Russian report comes out, I'll wager 5 RUB that the crash was due to a meteorite.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 85): In conclusion: it is very, extremely, highly unlikely that you will find a structural part of the missile in the debris of it's target. Especially if this target was intercepted at an altitude of 10,200m.

I'm not seeing any context for the location of that supposed missile, though. It doesn't look to be among the aircraft debris. Is there a different image or a video that I missed?

It also looks too small to be the missile from a buk.

If it is the missile, it seems logical that if people saw the launch and the impact, that they may have seen the spent missile fall, and could locate it.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 84): Those were designed for something much bigger and hotter than a SAM. They are 'detuned' for lack of a better word to ignore small missiles to avoid false positives.

True, but given the situation, I'd bet at least one or two had their detection thresholds turned down a bit to keep an eye on things. Whats the point of having spy sats with centimeter resolution if they don't use them from time to time?

Quoting Klaus (Reply 90): There were clear skies.

Every genuine pic and vid I see has overcast skies.

The video with clear skies is not the incident in question, imo.

If there were clear skies, a decent pair of binoculars would have revealed a civilian 777, imo.

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:18:36]

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 89): I'm comparing in my mind the descriptions of the MH17 debris field vs. what is left in the aftermath of a crash such as UA93.

An aircraft shot down is going to almost always breakup in the air and scatter debris over a wide area.

UA93 was intact when it hit the ground with a very small debris field.

ValueJet 592 hit so hard and fast there was almost no visible debris.

This crash shows widely separated debris over an area of 9 to 12 square miles.

I'm not sure the video and fireball are this crash and not one of the other aircraft shot down in the area recently. As mentioned above or in a previous thread. The fireball could be from just one wing full of fuel, separated from the fuselage, striking the ground.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 63): The Ukrainian government stated that no such systems where stationed in Eastern Ukraine. So it couldn't have come from them.

Quoting Viper911 (Reply 86): And you believe them just because they said so? Stop being naive everybody would deny such accusations after they shot down a civilian jet by mistake. Personally I don't believe either one of them, until hard evidence will surface that can point on the guilty ones.

I would also like to add that Ukraine has never formally ackgowledged their responsibility in the downing of a passenger Tu-154 with 78 people onboard 13 years ago.

The fact that they said they didn't shoot it down doesn't make it so. Or do you really think that any guilty party of such an event will immediately come clean?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

Quoting BN727227Ultra (Reply 93): I'll wager 5 RUB that the crash was due to a meteorite.

Oh no doubt! I'm hoping they just bring a large magnet with them and then tell the NTSB that the blackbox broke. I'm just curious to see if taking the black boxes is illegal or not.

Supposedly pic from today of the BUK that shot down MH17. It is in the town of Snezhnoe.

www.twitter.com/radio24_ua/status/489825503831146498/photo/1

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:20:56]

Quoting iwok (Reply 55): Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies.

Yes, of course. It's the standard procedure for transporting 300 spies into a war zone. You put them into a large civilian airliner, ask them to dress up like tourists departing for a holiday in an exotic region and that's it.

Mr. Kozitsin, you and your gang of gangster will have to live with what you did today for the rest of your life. Unfortunately, your victims don't have a life anymore...

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/17/wo...irlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I was watched the crash myself. Very very tragic.

I am sorry if this was already covered, but why MH again? If they wanted to attack a plane from Europe to Asia, why not do it on other aircraft? Did they target MH in particular? IMHO this might lead a lot of airline from avoiding Russian airspace.

Quoting yv773p (Reply 83): There are reports that the black boxes are being sent to Moscow, isn't that illegal? Ukraine, Malaysia, United States (Boeing), and the UK (RR) are the only ones with jurisdiction over the crash correct?

Under Annex 13 of the International Convention on Civil Aviation, Ukraine as the jurisdiction where the "accident" occurred will lead the investigation. Malaysia, U.S., and U.K. are entitled to participate. Any country with nationals on the flight has observer status.

Also under the Convention, to which Russia is a signatory, any state must safeguard and turn over relevant evidence, including the FDR/CVR, to the country leading the investigation. Should Russia not respect its Convention obligations, the consequences for Russian aviation and its airlines would be severe.

I'm sure with all the NATO equipment around and some comments made by US officials they know what happened and where the shooting originates. Right now it's all about political negociations.