Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Scipio · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:21 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 61):
Apparently 154 Dutch people were aboard MH17.

Quoting 456 (Reply 65):
Press conference (@nederland2) where it is confirmed by a malaysian airline representative....

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 66):
154 dutch

Karel, 456, EVAAIRBR076,

Innige deelneming.

Condolensces.

Klaus · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:22 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 84):
Those were designed for something much bigger and hotter than a SAM. They are 'detuned' for lack of a better word to ignore small missiles to avoid false positives.

There's a difference between not crossing the automatic alert threshold and not showing up in the raw sensor data which can likely be read out of the buffers for some time after an event.

Such a system will definitely have a higher resolution in order to allow for some filtering, and even if an event doesn't quite reach the level of an ICBM launch, it may well get reported nevertheless for analysis.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 89):
While I haven't read every report in the news, I'm wondering what the possibility is that MH17 was able to make some type of controlled landing.

Zero. The debris is scattered over an area of several kilometers across.

Quoting Aither (Reply 103):
I'm sure with all the NATO equipment around and some comments made by US officials they know what happened and where the shooting originates. Right now it's all about political negociations.

I'd expect that they're also considering how much of their raw data to expose, since they probably don't want to allow for precise insight into their surveillance capabilities.

Very likely services from multiple countries are sharing their respective informations, and in the end all the information needs to be weighed and judged with respect to the consequences.

Since the political stakes are substantial, I would expect that the people in charge would at least try to get things right rather than rush to judgment.

Particularly interesting would probably be what's going on within the russian agencies and government – that's where the crap has hit the fan the hardest.

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:31:28]

Heavierthanair · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:22 pm

G'day

Quoting yv773p (Reply 83):
the black boxes are being sent to Moscow, isn't that illegal?

Russia does not exactly have a reputation of adhering to international rules and regulations, Vladi Putin couldn't care less. If the case gets dragged to the UN which is very likely Russia will veto any decision and count on media to forget what this is all about sooner rather than later. Sad but this is reality.

Cheers

Peter

rfields5421 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:22 pm

Quoting DCA2011 (Reply 95):
Whats the point of having spy sats with centimeter resolution if they don't use them from time to time?

That level resolution isn't worth anything if you don't know where to look. Picking something out from a wide screen and zooming in is a lengthy time consuming process.

Those systems are for post action analysis, not near real-time analysis.

LTC8K6 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:23 pm

Quoting ktachiya (Reply 101):
I am sorry if this was already covered, but why MH again? If they wanted to attack a plane from Europe to Asia, why not do it on other aircraft? Did they target MH in particular? IMHO this might lead a lot of airline from avoiding Russian airspace.

I doubt they intentionally targeted a civilian airliner.

If they were doing that, why not wait for an A380?

I think they were just idiots and fired without checking.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:24 pm

Someone captured MH17 falling out of the sky:

Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYW_PaMSL2o

martinair50 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:26 pm

Putin reportedly saying this wouldn't have happened if Ukraine didn't continue their hostile activity in Eastern Ukraine....

L410Turbolet · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:27 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 73):
47x still unknown

How is it possible that 9 hours since the crash have passed and they still do not even know the nationality of 1 out of 6 passengers who were aboard the doomed aircraft? Isn't this info based on the passport they used for check-in part of some pax manifest?

daus · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:27 pm

I'm curious if it's possible the SAM unit was in "auto-defense" mode... Tricky business that...
I remember the stories of the US Air Force finally getting so fed up with the US Army's Patriot batteries auto-locking onto them they plinked one of the sets with a HAARM. Air Defense is not for amateurs.

456 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 104):

I appreciate that.

I just understand that tomorrow the dutch flags on government buildings are half post.

AeroWesty · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):
Someone captured MH17 falling out of the sky:

VERY interesting video, thank you for posting the link. I'd hope there's more of it available to be able to see how long the aircraft remained whole.

martinair50 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):

Someone captured MH17 falling out of the sky:

Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYW_P...MSL2o

Looks like a blue belly no? Does MH aircraft have that?

ComeAndGo · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:29 pm

Quoting Viper911 (Reply 86):
And you believe them just because they said so?

I certainly believe them more than whatever comes from Russian sources.

Have you watched RT news lately?

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:30:00]

DCA2011 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:29 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 107):
Those systems are for post action analysis, not near real-time analysis.

I know, the joke was poorly executed - a bit like saying "hey we've got some cruise missiles laying around... who has ticked us off recently?"

Regardless of the specific tech being used - I have no doubt that some spy agency somewhere could watch it happening in near real-time

Viper911 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:29 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 58):
Congress: MH17 Crash is ‘Act of Terror,’ and Putin May Be to Blame.

Quote:
“The shooting down, if it’s true, of a passenger airliner is an act of terror,” Rep. Elliott Engel, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told The Daily Beast. “It’s no different from the acts of terror Iran has been perpetrating for many years… The world community should get together and decide on a solidified response.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...ror-and-putin-may-be-to-blame.html

Are they serious? Someone should remind Mr. Engel about IR655 then.

Viper911

456 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:29 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):

If we are looking at the bottom of the plane, why dont i see a color difference of the blue line and grey area of the plane?
Too far away perhaps?

washingtonflyer · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:30 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 97):
I would also like to add that Ukraine has never formally ackgowledged their responsibility in the downing of a passenger Tu-154 with 78 people onboard 13 years ago.

As opposed to a Russian rebel commander who bragged this afternoon (within 30 minutes of the shootdown) about shooting down a Ukrainian plane...

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:33:06]

EVAAIRBR076 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:31 pm

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 111):

Well they know all the passenger names, but they just want to be sure that the people were on the plane, to prevent mistakes by mixing up names, the verifications takes a bit longer, but yes i caqn imagine it is frustrating.

LTC8K6 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:33 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 114):

VERY interesting video, thank you for posting the link. I'd hope there's more of it available to be able to see how long the aircraft remained whole.

I doubt that is 9M-MRO being shot down.

jetblueguy22 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:34 pm

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 111):
How is it possible that 9 hours since the crash have passed and they still do not even know the nationality of 1 out of 6 passengers who were aboard the doomed aircraft?

Probably pending notification of their respective governments.
Pat

SonomaFlyer · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:34 pm

Quoting yv773p (Reply 83):

There are reports that the black boxes are being sent to Moscow, isn't that illegal? Ukraine, Malaysia, United States (Boeing), and the UK (RR) are the only ones with jurisdiction over the crash correct?

I understand it is a war zone but can't the Russia be sued for violating the Chicago convention?

Russia won't care about the Chicago convention. The problem posed for a truly transparent investigation is the crash site is in rebel-controlled territory. Its much more likely the bodies will be looted, the evidence moved or disturbed and the boxes removed before anyone from NTSB, CAA, Boeing, Rolls Royce or the Malay govt can arrive (assuming they aren't fired on in the process).

Russia has the technical know-how of course to conduct the investigation but if the boxes are opened without a neutral observer ensuring the integrity of the inspection, anything they state resulting from their "downloads" will be suspect.

B747forever · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:37 pm

I am still in disbelife that another MH 777 has been lost.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 85):

I would like to know how Malaysia is going to recover from this and MH370. It's going to be tough.

Not many airlines have lost two widebodies within 6 months. Will be tough times ahead for everyone at MH.

ComeAndGo · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:38 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 88):
They've said that they had no such systems stationed in the area. The separatists, however, do, and they've even bragged about it.

That's right, which means that either Russia supplied it to the Separists or the Separists stole them from Russia. But they're not coming from Ukraine or were conquered by Separists from the Ukraine like someone claimed earlier.

Viper911 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:39 pm

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 116):
I certainly believe them more than whatever comes from Russian sources.

Have you watched RT news lately?

Sadly I'm in Israel and we have our own chaos right now.

Don't get me wrong I'm not "attacking" you, my point is, in the current situation someone downed a civilian jet carrying 295 pax, due to the scale of the event both sides will throw claims at each other, all 3 sides (Ukraine, Rebels and Russia) will use propaganda, I'm just being cautious here about making a wrong assumption that's all. The entire thing is very problematic due to the sides involved and it will be very hard to conduct proper investigation of the event.

Viper911

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:41:27]

Airbus747 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:39 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 104):

My thoughts go out to them, too... as well as to all others regardless of their nationality :|

Not to be disrespectful, but I wonder and get mixed feelings when some people seem to feel more sorry each time a "Western" nationality is present in the fatalities count (or tops it).

Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it...

All prayers to all those who lost today.

Klaus · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:41 pm

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 126):
That's right, which means that either Russia supplied it to the Separists or the Separists stole them from Russia. But they're not coming from Ukraine or were conquered by Separists from the Ukraine like someone claimed earlier.

I don't see that conclusion supported by these statements.

According to what I've heard so far, the separatists have in fact overrun at least one ukrainian military post where at least one Buk system was stationed.

nupogodi · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:41 pm

Quoting speedygonzales (Reply 43):
Military satellites can do a lot of things, but they can not break the laws of physics.

These one can - sort of.

Not really break the laws, of course, but the technology to monitor a wide area for IR bursts isn't science fiction, nor is it secret. It's how early-warning detection systems work. Most people would think they were magic if they knew about them. I think most people learned about them during MH370.

The thing is, the full extent of the US's capability isn't well-defined and people in the industry think that it's a lot more sensitive than they're saying.

If the US formally says, "yeah we saw a rocket launch there", I would be VERY hesitant to be sceptical.

Vio · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:42 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):
Someone captured MH17 falling out of the sky:

Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYW_PaMSL2o

I'm a little sceptical that this is the MH17 flight. If you look at the size of the engines in relation to the fuselage, they are much smaller. I would rather say that this is another aircraft, perhaps a Ukrainian plane?

SpaceshipDC10 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:43 pm

Quoting martinair50 (Reply 115):
Looks like a blue belly no?

If this is indeed MH17, the belly color is not necessarily a clue since the video's quality is not good.

It may be related to the video's quality but I don't see horizontal stabilizers.

flyingturtle · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:43 pm

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 111):
How is it possible that 9 hours since the crash have passed and they still do not even know the nationality of 1 out of 6 passengers who were aboard the doomed aircraft? Isn't this info based on the passport they used for check-in part of some pax manifest?

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 121):

And throw double citizenships into the mix...

I feel bad for the relatives, and especially the Dutch and then Malaysia Airlines.

If it was by neglect or even intentional, and if it were the pro-Russian separatists - I expect them to lay down their arms in shame, and leave Ukraine.

By the way, http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/cont...n/travel_advisory/mh17-latest.html is pointing to a 404 page. I suspect they are updating their press release in the next few minutes.

David

FLALEFTY · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:44 pm

Quoting AT (Reply 91):
I'm curious as to how useful the black boxes could serve in this case (unlike for the MH 370 flight), especially given that the cause of the crash isn't really being debated, and the reasons for it will not be answered by the data recorders.

The FDR should be able to reveal the moment of cabin decompression, the flight profile after warhead shrapnel impact, if the engines failed, the control surfaces' positions, if the autopilot was engaged prior to the intercept, et.al. modes.

The CVR probably should have been able to pick up the sound of the warhead detonation (the SA-11 uses a proximity-fused warhead) and the pilots' reactions.

The usefulness of such data hinges on the recorders receiving proper, independent analysis.

ranold76 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:45 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):
Someone captured MH17 falling out of the sky:

It isn't MH17

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:53:56]

747400sp · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:45 pm

This is horrible, it remind me to much of KAL flight 007.

Mortyman · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:46 pm

There is a terrible video on the liveleak site without any blur of charcoaled people ... closeups ... Terrible and deffinetly not for the fainth hearted ...

tu204 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 120):
As opposed to a Russian rebel commander who bragged this afternoon (within 30 minutes of the shootdown) about shooting down a Ukrainian plane...

Thats what I'm getting at.

Right now we can't trust either parties because both of them have proven to be quite unreliable, to say the least.

AeroWesty · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 122):
I doubt that is 9M-MRO being shot down.

That's one reason why I'd like to see more. A jet traveling at 600mph will cover ~16km of land per minute, so in my mind it should have broken up fairly close to the ground, based on the descriptions of the size of the debris field.

I'm not trying to say anything definitive, nor do I necessarily disagree with the replies to my earlier post, but so much of the debris is whole and relatively undamaged, even though obviously in pieces, I'm left wondering what the possibilities are that the plane didn't simply free-fall from the sky after being hit.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:48 pm

Sorry guys, apparently the video shows another plane:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie4J3EXhh7w

voodoo · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:48 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):
Someone captured MH17 falling out of the sky:

Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYW_P...MSL2o

Hmmm . Looks a bit 'Antonov-y' to me. The rear ventral portion seems a bit flattened like the ramp doors of an AN-twin and the wing, though barely perceptable seems a bit 'straight'. I don't automatically 'see' a 777 here.

bunumuring · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:49 pm

27 Australians. I'm guttedfor all who lost their lives, but 27 Australians?
How many families, how many lives destroyed beyond that tally.
Tony Abbott, we are a nation in mourning.
Like i said in a post hours ago ... Today, we are all Malaysians.
RIP.
Bunumuring.

alfa164 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:49 pm

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 111):
How is it possible that 9 hours since the crash have passed and they still do not even know the nationality of 1 out of 6 passengers who were aboard the doomed aircraft? Isn't this info based on the passport they used for check-in part of some pax manifest?

First, the airline must determine which passengers were actually on the flight. Then normal protocol is for the respective governments of each of the deceased to be notified first; those governments may request time for the next-of-kin to be advised before any public announcements are made.

Quoting Viper911 (Reply 118):
Are they serious? Someone should remind Mr. Engel about IR655 then.

Are you serious? The rebel terrorists already bragged about shooting down an airplane... for the third time this month. This time, it was a civilian airliner. Using a tragic accident from 13 years ago as an excuse is obscene.

SANFan · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:49 pm

Quoting Airbus747 (Reply 128):
Not to be disrespectful, but I wonder and get mixed feelings when some people seem to feel more sorry each time a "Western" nationality is present in the fatalities count (or tops it).
Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it...

I get really disturbed by those who demand to know how many of what nationality were onboard and perished in any sort of tragic occurrence like this. What difference does it make?

There were 295 souls on MH17, plus, apparently, several people on the ground -- anything beyond that is beside the point IMO.

RIP to all those who perished in this horrific deed.

bb

nomadd22 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 134):
The CVR probably should have been able to pick up the sound of the warhead detonation (the SA-11 uses a proximity-fused warhead) and the pilots' reactions.

It would have been an SA-17 (Buk M2)

solarflyer22 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting Viper911 (Reply 118):
Are they serious? Someone should remind Mr. Engel about IR655 then.
Viper911

This is what every Iranian is saying. The had nerve to give the captain of the USS Vincennes a Legion of Merit Award. Considering the Vincennes was in Iranian waters, it was more of a crime if you ask me.

Here is Engel's Bio. I am sure you can deduce from it the rest.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Engel

hivue · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:51 pm

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 134):
The FDR should be able to reveal the moment of cabin decompression, the flight profile after warhead shrapnel impact, if the engines failed, the control surfaces' positions, if the autopilot was engaged prior to the intercept, et.al. modes.

The CVR probably should have been able to pick up the sound of the warhead detonation (the SA-11 uses a proximity-fused warhead) and the pilots' reactions.

What we need to know, though, is who pulled the trigger.

MD80Nut · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:51 pm

Well, it seems pretty official now. A SAM fired by somebody, with the Russians or their proxy in the Ukraine the leading suspects, shot down an innocent airliner out of the sky. I suspect it was hit by accident and a Ukrainian military plane was the target.

An international political firestorm is about to begin, so I offer my prayers for the innocent people killed before things get crazy. Hopefully the people in the Ukraine can be spared further bloodshed.

Cheers, Ralph

OlegShv · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:52 pm

Quoting Ellehammer (Reply 99):
Supposedly pic from today of the BUK that shot down MH17. It is in the town of Snezhnoe.

There is no way to determine the date or the location where that photo has been taken.

The rebels are not the only ones operating Buk systems in that area. See the link below:

http://globalnews.ca/news/1433940/uk...laims-victory-in-rebel-stronghold/

nupogodi · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:52 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 137):
There is a terrible video on the liveleak site without any blur of charcoaled people ... closeups ... Terrible and deffinetly not for the fainth hearted ...

OP says you can link them with a warning. So please link with a warning. We're all adults here and can choose which content we wish to view.

Investigators and family members are going to see that shit either way, with or without our help.

Sorry, I just get frustrated when people say something like, "check out this thing I just saw" and then don't link it. It sucks to see dead people, but it would be interesting to see the crash site through a video on the ground.

Flaps · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:52 pm

Quoting vio (Reply 131):

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):
Someone captured MH17 falling out of the sky:

Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYW_PaMSL2o

I'm a little sceptical that this is the MH17 flight. If you look at the size of the engines in relation to the fuselage, they are much smaller. I would rather say that this is another aircraft, perhaps a Ukrainian plane?

I was thinking the same. To my admittedly poor eyes that could even be another shot of the AN26 mentioned so many times earlier. About all that can said definitively from that photo is that it appears to be a twin engine aircraft with one engine on fire.

nomadd22 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:52 pm

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 134):
The CVR probably should have been able to pick up the sound of the warhead detonation (the SA-11 uses a proximity-fused warhead) and the pilots' reactions.

It probably would have been an SA-17 (Buk M2 or possibly M1-2))

[Edited 2014-07-17 14:55:17]

rj777 · Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:53 pm

I just hope that officials from MH are more transparent in this investigation than they were in 370. Yes I know that this time they actually have the plane, but the families will definitely want answers in short order!

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