ElPistolero
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:37 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 207):
Also have to assume that they are stupid enough to believe that the Russian President is overflying a warzone in his presidential bird without a fighter escort.

Amateurs may make that kind of mistake. Professionals don't.

Reality is - this is the new threat to aviation. The proliferation of these types of weapons, plus the amateurs they are increasingly being entrusted to, is scary. I suspect Syria poses similar challenges, which is why a lot of airlines are avoiding it.

On a separate note, how is Turkey going to deal with the sudden congestion?
 
squrt29
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:37 pm

Whoever did this joins the Russians (KAL 007) and the U.S. (Iran Air 655) as members of a rather small group that shot down an airliner full of innocent civilians.

[Edited 2014-07-17 16:41:06]
 
ytz
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:40 pm

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 211):
Reality is - this is the new threat to aviation. The proliferation of these types of weapons, plus the amateurs they are increasingly being entrusted to, is scary. I suspect Syria poses similar challenges, which is why a lot of airlines are avoiding it.

Indeed. And intelligence agencies around the world have taken note. The proliferation of MANPADS and high powered lasers has not gone unnoticed.
 
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teme82
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:42 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 181):
But in this case it's hard to fnd a "neutral" investigator. I guess we should start calling up Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Tuvalu for officials. I am not joking, this incident has very few neutral parties to it.

How about our SIAF (Safety Investigation Authority of Finland)???
Flying high and low
 
RightRudder
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:48 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 207):
Quoting rightrudder (Reply 193):Here is an article of the similarities in equipment of Board 1 and MH 17. Not sure if this had been previously posted or if there is any correlation to MH 17 being mistaken for Putin's plane.

http://rt.com/news/173672-malaysia-plane-crash-putin/
Amazing Russian propaganda. They really want/need to change the prevailing story line that Russian-armed rebels downed the bird.

So they'll say that the Ukrainians accidentally shot down a bird at 30 000 feet, using binoculars for crude visual confirmation? Are we to seriously believe that trained Ukrainians air defence operators are that stupid? Also have to assume that they are stupid enough to believe that the Russian President is overflying a warzone in his presidential bird without a fighter escort.

Amateurs may make that kind of mistake. Professionals don't.


It sounds like these missile carriers have laser, heat-seeking, as well as optical technology. Not sure how credible the article is, but if the two planes intersected at any point, the livery sure looks similar to one another.
"Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana".
 
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pvjin
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:52 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 215):
MH17 is really maddening when you think that, in 2014, those 295 people on board that had absolutely nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine have been killed by the "Lebensraum" dreams of that dictator that continuously violate human rights even in his own country and people. Completely nauseating regime. And I can't believe some people on this forum would even defend him.

   I could have never imagined this kind of stuff happening in today's world, commercial airliner getting shot down while peacefully cruising at 33k feet over Eastern Europe... The whole thing is just so unbelievable, yet reality.

I guess this is what happens when bunch of amateurs who lack proper military order get their hands on advanced technology. It makes me really scared to think of all the unstable regimes out there with similar weaponry, governments that can fall any year and get their equipment stolen by rebel groups like these.

I hope this will result in appropriate consequences to Russia, no matter what kind of economic impacts it might have on the EU.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
rolfen
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:06 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 201):

I'm sorry to burst your bubble but others do care.
And it affects everyone. When there are (more and more) parts of the world where you cannot go because you might get killed, and when you hear what happens there, it affects you subtly but deeply. And I dont mean money-wise but psychologically.
rolf
 
F9Animal
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:06 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 192):

Unfortunately, it appears more and more that separatists operating in the eastern Ukraine got their hands on a 9K37 Buk battlefield SAM system, thought they were shooting down another Ukrainian military plane, and unfortunately ended up shooting down an MH 772ER with 295 people on board.  

They didn't get their hands on a SAM system. It was supplied to them by Russia. As far as I am concerned, I blame Putin personally for all of this. He has blood all over his hands. The fact that these idiots are taking aim at airplanes without confirming their identity first is beyond disgusting! It is premeditated murder as far as I am concerned. There is absolutely no excuse for this tragedy, none whatsoever. If the rebels are indeed found responsible, this should be enough to send the rebels packing up, and walking out of Ukraine. I hope there is enough International outrage to end this occupation.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 201):
Russia is going to WOOF! And??
Nobody is going to do much of anything besides wring their hands.
And We'd Better NOT sell any Woof tickets.. It's getting a little OLD with the worldwide "Law and Order" thing.
especially since noboy else CARES!!
Heck!! I don't know why WE care!!
It's not affecting me!

Of course it is not affecting you. However, why should WE care? Innocent human lives were taken for no reason! Somebody without hesitation made the order to fire a rocket on a plane without knowing anything about the aircraft. That is an act of barbaric proportions. In today's age of technology, weaponry, and war.... This was unacceptable. We should all care. 295 humans. 295 humans who deserved to live.  

295 lives lost for what? And perhaps a bit early to say.... But, I think Malaysia Airlines as we know it are in dire straits. I didn't think 370 would keep them aloft, but this tragedy is certainly a major crush to them. I send my deepest sorrows to the employees of this airline. I also grieve the loss of 295 souls. My heart hurts. Such a senseless tragedy.  

[Edited 2014-07-17 17:10:03]
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7BOEING7
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:08 am

Quoting royaldutchgirl (Reply 197):
In the media I saw a story about a passenger who posted a picture on his FB of the aircraft just before boarding MH17... Very surreal and shocking, but look at the registration... It says -RC ! Here's the news item:

That airplane hasn't been in AMS since the 11th. He may have said it but it doesn't relate to 9M-MRD, todays airplane.
 
rolfen
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:12 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 217):
I guess this is what happens when bunch of amateurs who lack proper military order get their hands on advanced technology.

Read about the Iranian a300 that was downed somewhere over the persian gulf by an American destroyer and a full crew who were all but amateurs.

I do feel like you, but history seems to disprove that.
rolf
 
Viscount724
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:12 am

Quoting squrt29 (Reply 212):
Whoever did this joins the Russians (KAL 007) and the U.S. (Iran Air 655) as members of a rather small group that shot down an airliner full of innocent civilians.

Don't forget the Libyan missile that shot down the UTA DC-10 over the Sahara desert in 1989, killing all 170 aboard.

The aircraft involved.


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Michel Gilliand



Memorial near the crash site in the Niger desert and related photos/video.
http://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/2089...ellite-memorial-of-uta-flight-772/
 
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ZKNCL
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:14 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 201):
Heck!! I don't know why WE care!!
It's not affecting me!

Imagine if you were on board that aircraft. You're the sort of person that probably wants to get the whole world to know about you if you go down. And you yet show no compassion for others? This tragedy could have been easily evaded if amateurs did not get supplied with this kind of technology. I thought we were far more advanced and mature these days. You and the separatists have proven me wrong...

ZKNCL
 
ltbewr
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:14 am

Today's state sponsored missile takedown of MH 17, perhaps likely the real target to be a plane carrying military supplies to the Ukraine, is one of the worst horrors one can ever come up with. This is compounded by the remains of the aircraft and humans murdered likely being looted by despite people in a war zone, destroying much of the material needed to do a proper investigation.

That this occurred to a MH airliner, a 777 - similar to the loss of another MH airliners earlier this year, a number of possible coincidences as to the 17th as to the aircraft and on the anniversary of TWA 800 off the coast of Long Island, just boggles the mind. Little can be done to penalize Russia or the Ukraine not already done without serious trade and financial issues or creating a new Cold War.

Questions have been raised about the route in the region where it went down, that it might have been in a NOTAM recommending not flying over that area. That may be a horrible error of the MH pilots on this flight although other flights were overflying this area as well in possible countering of a NOTAM is just horrible.

A proper investigation is unlikely, the boxes either destroyed by those did this act of war/terrorism or holding them 'hostage' for millions of Euros/Dollars to buy more weapons, the last thing that happened. Perhaps representatives of a country neutral to Russia, Ukraine, USA and Malaysia must be allowed in to recover remains of the people and the aircraft.

To me Putin has blood on his hands for his part in supplying the equipment and staff training to launch the alleged missiles.
 
sovietjet
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:15 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 219):
They didn't get their hands on a SAM system. It was supplied to them by Russia.

How are you so 100% sure of this? Putin is crazy, but he is not stupid enough to give a bunch of rebels advanced SAM systems. This is not some AK-47s or MANPADs. These are sophisticated systems that require an organized military arm with training to operate. As much as people hate Putin, you have to admit he is quite smart and would never allow such serious weapons to fall in the hands of a bunch of nobodys.

Oh, and in case people forgot, the rebels captured a Ukrainian SAM base on June 29. It's quite clear the likely source of these SAMs. You can see here:

http://rusvesna.su/news/1404041521
 
Tobias2702
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:17 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 220):
Quoting royaldutchgirl (Reply 197):
In the media I saw a story about a passenger who posted a picture on his FB of the aircraft just before boarding MH17... Very surreal and shocking, but look at the registration... It says -RC ! Here's the news item:

That airplane hasn't been in AMS since the 11th. He may have said it but it doesn't relate to 9M-MRD, todays airplane.

If you look closely, you will see that on the photo, the "D" of the reg resembles a "C" only because of a reflection. The facebook post is indeed, sadly, unique. It's quite easy to find out the name of the poster; taking a look at the comments on his fb page should disperse any doubts.
PA, AF, UK, BA, AB, DL, LH, FR, BD, A3, EZY, DY //// A319/320/346, B733/735/73G/738/744/763, AT4, 146, CR2, DH4
 
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Vio
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:20 am

I remember once upon a time talking to one of my neighbours who was in the Romanian Army as a soldier in charge of an AA battery (call it what you will). He told me the rigorous training they had to do, including identifying aeroplane types (both military and civilian). A properly trained soldier could not confuse a 777 with an AN-26...

Any spotter can tell if a plane is an airliner or military jet, even at altitude....
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
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falstaff
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:26 am

Quoting rolfen (Reply 217):
Read about the Iranian a300 that was downed somewhere over the persian gulf by an American destroyer and a full crew who were all but amateurs.

I do feel like you, but history seems to disprove that.

The Soviets or the East Germans shot down a Pan Am 727, in 1966, killing the three crew members. I doubt they knew it was a cargo flight, it could just as easily been full of people.
I bring it up because the Soviets and East Germans were anything but amateurs.
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nupogodi
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:28 am

Quoting vio (Reply 223):
Any spotter can tell if a plane is an airliner or military jet, even at altitude....

So if it was intentional, what was the motive? The Dutch have no beef with Russia, and Malaysia certainly doesn't. What's the point?

Anyone who tells you they understand geopolitics is lying because realistically no one does, they just pretend to. And I certainly don't. But... why? Even a theory as to why?

Haven't heard a good answer to that question yet.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
malioil
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:31 am

I am amazed to see the man in this photograph wearing what appears to be the Union Flag on his uniform.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/drugo...84155/9521232/9521232_original.jpg
 
trex8
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:33 am

Quoting vio (Reply 223):

I remember once upon a time talking to one of my neighbours who was in the Romanian Army as a soldier in charge of an AA battery (call it what you will). He told me the rigorous training they had to do, including identifying aeroplane types (both military and civilian). A properly trained soldier could not confuse a 777 with an AN-26...

Any spotter can tell if a plane is an airliner or military jet, even at altitude....

And you'd think a trained fast jet pilot would be able to tell a chopper their own forces use from the enemies too. Tell that to those coalition forces killed when a USAF F15 shot down a US Army Blackhawk after closing in and visually identifying it as enemy Hind chopper. In the heat of battle even the best trained can mess up big time.
 
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cjg225
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:35 am

Quoting malioil (Reply 226):
I am amazed to see the man in this photograph wearing what appears to be the Union Flag on his uniform.

Military surplus?
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
fiscal
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:39 am

I will make one prediction. Russia will "investigate" and will give up those "responsible" from the Russian side, and that will allow them to look as if the government of Putin cares, and that they will not tolerate that type of terrorism done in the name of Mother Russia. Politics at it's worst, but they do have a history of that sort of thing.
 
wingman
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:39 am

I've seen pictures of the tail and unless I'm mistaken it appears to be separated from the major crash site with the engines and bodies. If this is true I wonder if the missile, which was apparently a "proximity fuse" type weapon (I am out of my depth here), did in fact explode in near proximity and that explosion caused the tail to separate from the aircraft. I suppose that would explain the absence of noticeable fire on the downward trajectory, the tail separation not causing any fuel ignition but directly leading to the loss of all control.

Again, out of my depth here so if the tail was in fact near the main wreckage then my speculation would not be valid.
 
wingman
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:42 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 211):
Don't forget the Libyan missile that shot down the UTA DC-10 over the Sahara desert in 1989, killing all 170 aboard.

And KAL 007.
 
Klaus
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:43 am

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 219):
Little can be done to penalize Russia or the Ukraine not already done without serious trade and financial issues or creating a new Cold War.

The current sanctions aren't even half of the way up yet, and Putin knows it (which is the whole point).

Which is why I expect Russia to cut its losses and cooperate in the crash investigation rather diligently. I doubt there is much they could actually hide at this late point anyway. 300 dead civilians including many children don't leave them much of a choice in any case.
 
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Vio
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:44 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 219):
So if it was intentional, what was the motive? The Dutch have no beef with Russia, and Malaysia certainly doesn't. What's the point?
Quoting nupogodi (Reply 219):
Haven't heard a good answer to that question yet.

What I was trying to say with my post is that whoever shot this plane down was probably an untrained (from an identification point of view) "soldier". He (or they) were trigger happy and couldn't wait to shot down a plane. They saw one in the sky, "aimed and pulled the trigger" without thinking twice... Just my theory... Of course, I have no proof of that, but it's the most plausible one.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 221):
And you'd think a trained fast jet pilot would be able to tell a chopper their own forces use from the enemies too. Tell that to those coalition forces killed when a USAF F15 shot down a US Army Blackhawk after closing in and visually identifying it as enemy Hind chopper. In the heat of battle even the best trained can mess up big time.

It's a different story when you move so fast. Quite often I have ATC tell me "You have traffic at 1 o'clock, 1000 feet above you, opposite direction Dornier Jet..." Good luck trying to figure out the type of plane closing in so fast. From the ground up, it's a bit easier to identify an aircraft, even with simple binoculars.

Trained soldiers would know how to do this... Like I said above, something tells me these guys did not know what they were shooting at. Maybe they didn't even understand the way the airspace was set up... Maybe they assumed the entire area was a "no fly zone" and "Shoot everything you see"....
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
ek241yyz
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:52 am

The plane turned exactly 17 today.

First flight was July 17, 1997. Crashed July 17, 2014 operating MH flight...17.
Travel often; getting lost will help you find yourself.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:54 am

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 120):
Russia won't care about the Chicago convention.

I doubt it. The sanctions provided for in the convention would exclude Russian aviation and their airlines from worldwide aviation networks and protocols. Take a look at Aeroflot's routes and figure out how they'd survive if they couldn't overfly any convention airspace.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:58 am

Quoting ek241yyz (Reply 226):

That is so freaky!   
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
nikeherc
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:01 am

As to why this matters, it matters because a state that has been ruthless in the repression of its own citizens, is now supporting guerrilla warfare in another independent state. It doesn't matter that they might have intended to shoot down a Ukraine Air Force plane. That act would have been an illegal act of war also.

Clearly an An-26 at 33,000 feet would not have been a direct threat to the separatists. Murder is murder and this is not accidental or negligent. You may disagree, but this is my opinion.

[Edited 2014-07-17 18:03:55]
DC6 to 777 and most things in between
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:07 am

The question is why was MH170 flying over a war zone when US & UK A/C were warned not to fly over that area. Apparently Australian airlines had also stopped flying over this region.

Be interesting to see the exact form of the warnings received by US and UK airlines compared to the warnings given to other airlines.

I can only imagine the NOTAMs that the pilots (from NON US and UK airlines) received did not give them adequate notice of how dangerous the area they were flying over was. Apparently there was a restricted area up to FL320 but the A/C was at FL330. By any measure, not a great idea only 1000 feet from a war zone. However, apparently many other airlines except for US & UK airlines (who had received a separate warning) were flying the same route.

I remember flying using maps near Vietnam that had a huge jagged line around the border of Vietnam with writing that said words to the effect that "Aircraft Flying into this Region can be Shot Down without Warning". So very clearly marked, and obviously everyone kept well away from the zone, even though the war was long over.

So we need to know some facts:
1. What are the special warnings received by UK and US airlines?
2. What were the warnings received by all other airlines who continued to fly this obviously dangerous route?
3. Who or What authority issued the NOTAM on the restricted area limits, that encouraged airlines to fly such a dangerous route? (This seems like an accident waiting to happen, and it did!)

[Edited 2014-07-17 18:32:11]

[Edited 2014-07-17 18:42:02]
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:08 am

Quoting wingman (Reply 222):
I've seen pictures of the tail and unless I'm mistaken it appears to be separated from the major crash site with the engines and bodies. If this is true I wonder if the missile, which was apparently a "proximity fuse" type weapon (I am out of my depth here), did in fact explode in near proximity and that explosion caused the tail to separate from the aircraft. I suppose that would explain the absence of noticeable fire on the downward trajectory, the tail separation not causing any fuel ignition but directly leading to the loss of all control.

If it had an continuous rod warhead it could well have chopped the aft part of the fuselage off.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous-rod_warhead
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:17 am

7BOEING7, if the information from Wikipedia is correct, the system in question is a variant of 9K37 Buk battlefield SAM system that has been around since circa 1983 to replace the 2K12 Kub SAM system (NATO code name Gainful). The warhead used on the Buk system missile is a fragmentary warhead weighing about 70 kg. As such, the impact of warhead from the missile probably blew the plane apart pretty quickly, given the wide debris field at the crash site.
 
ElPistolero
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:19 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 230):
However, apparently many other airlines except for US & UK airlines (who had received a separate warning) were flying the same route.

BA was not flying over Ukraine. Virgin Atlantic was. VS 300 has been flying over that region for a week. The only BA flight I saw - BA 199, has been steering clear of it for a few days.

Seems like VS was doing it to save money.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:20 am

Quoting rolfen (Reply 216):

Read about the Iranian a300 that was downed somewhere over the persian gulf by an American destroyer and a full crew who were all but amateurs.

Indeed, so if trained sailors can make a mistake, amateurs are much more likely to do so...

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 219):
Today's state sponsored missile takedown of MH 17
Quoting F9Animal (Reply 227):
Putin has direct involvement. He organized the occupation, provided trained militants to take the occupation, and ordered the invasion.

There are some fine lines here.

It's clear Putin bears responsibility, but it's not clear to me he gave an order to shoot down a civilian airliner.
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antskip
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:21 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 230):
The question is why was MH170 flying over a war zone when US & UK A/C were warned not to fly over that area.

"MH17 had been operating 1,000ft above the upper limit of closed airspace at the time of its disappearance over eastern Ukraine....the route had been closed by Ukrainian authorities up to 32,000ft. But the route was "open at the level at which [MH17] was flying", says Eurocontrol.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...losed-airspace-eurocontrol-401742/

SIA351 and AI113, very close by, could just as easily been the targets as MH17. I wonder if the same tepid response so far to this act of mass murder would have been the same if India or Singapore had lost a plane (probably) to Russian-sponsored bandits.

[Edited 2014-07-17 18:26:17]

[Edited 2014-07-17 18:29:59]
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:24 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 232):
The warhead used on the Buk system missile is a fragmentary warhead weighing about 70 kg. As such, the impact of warhead from the missile probably blew the plane apart pretty quickly, given the wide debris field at the crash site.

Yes seems most likely to be a fragmentary warhead.

The 9K37 is not a trivial system, it cannot be operated by amatures, lots of moving parts to get it to work correctly.
BV
 
neoshi
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:26 am

Quoting antskip (Reply 235):

I do have to wonder why they didn't just close the entire airspace instead up just up to FL320. The SA-17s have ceiling max of ~FL350.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:27 am

Quoting vio (Reply 225):

It was overcast in the area. It's pretty unlikely that 9M-MRD was clearly visible from the ground.
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:28 am

While the question of "who" is an important one. I really don't see any evidence out there either way to answer that, so at this stage, I am more curious as to the how.

What I think it is interesting is that if you watch the video on CNN right now (the one with the gray cloudy sky, not the blue sky), you see a large explosion at ground impact - leading one to believe the plane came down mostly intact. Yet if you also look at another shot, the tail is clearly separate from the main wreckage (by a few miles). The tail is "somewhat" intact, but the rudder is clearly missing and it clearly has a very violent shear.

I of course believe the intelligence community that a missile was in fact fired.

I really think what sadly happened is that a missile was fired and cause extreme damage to the tail - possibly removing the rudder and elevators - which caused the largely intact fuselage and wings (full of fuel) to plummet to the earth.

It's actually much sadder this way as at least a true missile explosion mid-air would likely have killed everyone instantly.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 92):
An aircraft shot down is going to almost always breakup in the air and scatter debris over a wide area.

UA93 was intact when it hit the ground with a very small debris field.

ValueJet 592 hit so hard and fast there was almost no visible debris.

This crash shows widely separated debris over an area of 9 to 12 square miles.

I'm not sure the video and fireball are this crash and not one of the other aircraft shot down in the area recently. As mentioned above or in a previous thread. The fireball could be from just one wing full of fuel, separated from the fuselage, striking the ground.

It depends which video you are talking about. The fireball in the air with a blue sky is not. The gray and cloudy sky with the crash and the fireball after impact I believe is in fact this crash.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 101):
Zero. The debris is scattered over an area of several kilometers across.

Yeah but the majority of the debris field is in a pretty tight area all things considering.

Quoting hivue (Reply 172):
As I've mentioned on these forums before, one of the best pieces of advice I ever heard was never attribute to malice that which adequately can be explained by stupidity.

That is a FANTASTIC quote. I need to commit this to memory.

[Edited 2014-07-17 18:31:10]
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
nupogodi
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:31 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 239):
That is a FANTASTIC quote. I need to commit this to memory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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Vio
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:32 am

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 238):
It was overcast in the area. It's pretty unlikely that 9M-MRD was clearly visible from the ground

Okay so if was all done through radar / "electronically" with no visual confirmation, were they not able to see how high the 777 was? Did they not know that the airspace is still being used by civilian airliners? I wonder what would've happened if this would've been an Aeroflot aircraft, or a Chinese one...
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
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VCEflyboy
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:34 am

Could this be the Boeing 777 2H6(ER) - 28416/155 stored at TLV?
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nupogodi
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:35 am

They would have heard the transponder.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:36 am

Quoting neoshi (Reply 237):
The SA-17s have ceiling max of ~FL350.

Actually, the current operational 9K37 Buk systems can engage a target as high as FL780! As such, it's probably this missile that could successfully intercept an airliner flying at FL330.
 
illinicmi
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:37 am

I must say I'm getting a bit of a kick out of the Russians here implying that there is more relevance to Ukraine shooting down a passenger plane 13 years ago than of the separatists shooting down a military plane yesterday.

It was cloudy. Any theory involving visual identification of the aircraft is simply wrong. Most likely is that they heard it and fired.
 
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Vio
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:39 am

Quoting illinicmi (Reply 245):
It was cloudy. Any theory involving visual identification of the aircraft is simply wrong. Most likely is that they heard it and fired.

Very plausible. Is there a way to "interrogate" the target with those SAMs? How would they know if it was "friendly/foe/neutral civilian"?
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
F9Animal
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:40 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 234):
There are some fine lines here.

It's clear Putin bears responsibility, but it's not clear to me he gave an order to shoot down a civilian airliner.

I was asked to keep politics out of this discussion by mods, which I respect. I will try my hardest to avoid it, but I think the end results of the investigation will be very political. I agree that Putin didn't likely order the shoot down of a civilian airliner. However, he should bear responsibility for this "militia's" actions. If it can be proven that he is responsible for the organization of this militia, he should bear the actions his chosen military has taken. The fact may very well reveal that the target was not identified before launching a missile at this plane. That screams a major problem, major failure of military command, and absolute incompetence.

So to maintain a proper non political response to abide by the forums, I will say that the result of this tragedy was avoidable, and should not have happened. I hope those responsible for these actions are brought to justice. I find it shameful that Putin denied Russian fault, and blamed Ukraine for this so quickly. It is obviously a war zone, and I still cannot believe ATC would put any civilian aircraft anywhere near this conflict. I hope there will be some major changes regarding routes flying an where near a war zone in the future. I think it is safe to speculate that there was a chain of responsibilities that lead to this awful tragedy.

Rest in Peace to the 295 souls who lost their lives today.
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antskip
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:40 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 239):
one of the best pieces of advice I ever heard was never attribute to malice that which adequately can be explained by stupidity.

That is a FANTASTIC quote.

To reduce the responsibility of the killing of so many utterly innocent people by suggesting it was a an act of stupidity rather than malice is itself of questionable humanity. The missile used was a weapon of mass destruction; the act itself an act of terrorism. The Russian separatists/ bandits had previously said that the air above "their' territory was theirs, and it was not safe. This act of mass murder fulfilled their threat. The conscious use of this missile was intended to blow the big foreign plane 33,000 ft above out of the sky to crash on "their" land, along with its occupants. The pilot had been told by airline authorities they were safe there at 33,000 feet. They weren't. Now the "clever" cowards who chose so freely to murder so many must be themselves be brought to inter-national account.

[Edited 2014-07-17 18:56:29]
 
trex8
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:43 am

Quoting vio (Reply 241):
I wonder what would've happened if this would've been an Aeroflot aircraft, or a Chinese one...

Then the Russians would have really shot dead the perpetrators right away.

Quoting vio (Reply 241):
Did they not know that the airspace is still being used by civilian airliners?

If they were a bunch of yahoo separatists/terrorists probably not.

If they had actually engaged the Ukrainian AN26 earlier they may have been so pumped up at their great skills and daring their judgement may have been less than perfect. Look at the Vincennes crew, everyone else in the USN in the area knew it was a Iranian commercial airliner but not them as they were too excited from the recent skirmish with the gunboats. Not saying the same thing necessarily happened here but a "professional" group of military personnel saw what they wanted to see and acted on it.

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