nupogodi
Posts: 933
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:44 am

Quoting vio (Reply 246):
Very plausible. Is there a way to "interrogate" the target with those SAMs? How would they know if it was "friendly/foe/neutral civilian"?

The transponder. I don't know anything about this particular SAM, but I know IFF was developed during World War 2 and modern transponders are compatible with IFF systems. I find it hard to believe an operator of any weapons system, even a slightly older one, would not be able to see the target was a civvie.

I say this because "It's be ridiculous if this wasn't true", not because I have any unique knowledge about Russian SAMs. If they're radar-guided rockets, you figure the fuckin' guy on the ground knows what he's trying to hit.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:46 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 230):
The question is why was MH170 flying over a war zone when US & UK A/C were warned not to fly over that area

They were not the only ones flying there. Close by was a Singapore Airlines 777 and an Indian Airlines 787.
 
FoxBravo
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:48 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 210):
Don't forget the Libyan missile that shot down the UTA DC-10 over the Sahara desert in 1989, killing all 170 aboard.

I believe that one was a bomb placed onboard, not a missile.
Common sense is not so common. -Voltaire
 
illinicmi
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:49 am

Quoting vio (Reply 246):
Is there a way to "interrogate" the target with those SAMs? How would they know if it was "friendly/foe/neutral civilian"?

I'd have to defer to the missile guys, but I suspect if it's this relatively sophisticated missile system they are saying, it probably has a number of ways it can acquire a target. I'd guess that it's probably "relatively" easy to make it seek it's own target.

I'd still bet that they heard it, thought it was Ukrainian, and fired. That's why they bragged about it, then scrubbed it all when they heard it was civilian. That happened, it's not even really disputable at this point, which is why I don't understand why there are still so many doubters out there.

Who holds the ultimate blame is the big question. Obviously the separatists are at primary fault, but I don't think you can remove Russia from that blame at all.

In the end, absolutely nothing will happen, and these poor people will never have their justice. Mark my words.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:53 am

Quoting vio (Reply 241):

Okay so if was all done through radar / "electronically" with no visual confirmation, were they not able to see how high the 777 was? Did they not know that the airspace is still being used by civilian airliners? I wonder what would've happened if this would've been an Aeroflot aircraft, or a Chinese one...

I think an experienced crew using the launcher would have recognized that the target was a civilian airliner and probably even which airliner it was.

Exactly who was operating the launcher isn't yet clear...but they probably were not qualified...
 
Chaostheory
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:56 am

The airways in question:

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t534/chaostheory2/ukrhialt_zpsb397088d.jpg
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:01 am

Who or What authority issued the NOTAM on the restricted area limits, that encouraged airlines to fly such a dangerous route? (This seems like an accident waiting to happen, and it did!)

Turns out Ukraine authorities created this restricted zone, thus creating a situation where many airlines would or might assume it was still safe to transit the zone. It looks like for political advantage Ukraine authorities consciously created a situation where some sort of incident like this was very likely to happen.

The fact that US and UK airlines received separate warnings to avoid this restricted zone, makes this look like there could have been some premeditation and planning involved. Given that Russia would gain nothing from shooting down an airline, it is doubtful they would intentionally do this. So who gains from this...only Ukraine as far as I can see.

[Edited 2014-07-17 19:30:58]
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:02 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 234):
It's clear Putin bears responsibility, but it's not clear to me he gave an order to shoot down a civilian airliner

He gave a sophisticated anti aircraft missile system to a bunch of criminals without training them properly.
 
SonomaFlyer
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:02 am

We will likely never know who was in the control truck when the decision to fire was made. Yes this system is able to read transponders but its possible that the guys in the truck weren't trained to understand transponder codes. They see a plane and they shoot, period.

The system itself doesn't have the same kind of checklists that many modern western systems possess. This system is old(er) and though it can engage at a height of 12 miles, it has 1980/90's tech for the radar system. They paint an a/c, acquire, lock and fire. The missile has a proximity fuse with a 154 lb warhead and the rest is history.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:06 am

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 251):
Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 230):
The question is why was MH170 flying over a war zone when US & UK A/C were warned not to fly over that area

They were not the only ones flying there. Close by was a Singapore Airlines 777 and an Indian Airlines 787.

If this happened to Air India instead they would have blamed Boeing for sure  

Just pure bad luck for MH and their 777s.

If the plane was allowed and supposed to be there according to the flight path and ATC then I don't hold one shred of blame to MH. Maybe they could have adjusted their routes a while back when some other airlines did (I heard on the news QF adjusted it's route over that area when warned just after the conflict started) but if the airspace was deemed safe then so be it...
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:06 am

"The SPM is essentially a tracked chassis that carries a radar and a launcher with four missiles. The arrangement of the radar and the missile launcher on one rigid platform allows their simultaneous laying in azimuth and elevation with the aid of an electrohydraulic drive. The 9A310M1-2 SPM also comprises a digital computer system, a TV optical sight, a laser range finder, navigation and communications equipment, an IFF interrogator, a built-in simulator and documentation equipment.

During combat operation, the SPM detects a target, determines its IFF status, automatically tracks the target and identifies its type, computes the flight mission and launch assignment, launches a missile, transmits radio correction commands to the missile and evaluates the firing results. "

http://www.enemyforces.net/missiles/buk.htm
 
odysseus9001
Posts: 77
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:09 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 224):
The current sanctions aren't even half of the way up yet, and Putin knows it (which is the whole point).

Which is why I expect Russia to cut its losses and cooperate in the crash investigation rather diligently. I doubt there is much they could actually hide at this late point anyway. 300 dead civilians including many children don't leave them much of a choice in any case.

They will deny providing the equipment to the "rebels", and blame either the rebels using allegedly captured Ukrainian equipment, or Ukrainians, depending on how easy it will be to create a chain of artifacts pointing to the Ukrainians. They appear to have the flight recorder, so I'm sure they're working hard on their story. The "cooperation" will be in the form of selected elements that will tell the story the Russians want to be told. Even out of a serious mistake (shooting at something when you don't even know what it is you are shooting at), opportunities arise for special measures and disinformation.

They know the probably cannot fool the Ukrainians or the Americans. The goal is to create just enough uncertainty for the Europeans, who probably suspect the truth, but will not want to face it. Putin will zig zag to give the Europeans an excuse not to act, but Russian policy to eventually absorb Ukraine and other neighboring states will not change. The fundamental disconnect between freedom of peoples and realpolitik of an increasingly totalitarian state with an increasingly race-based ideology will be increasingly obvious, but difficult to face due to the increasing sacrifice entailed. Its easier to announce token sanctions and pretend nothing serious is happening.

In fact, its eerily similar to the events leading up to WWII.

There isn't even a qualified national authority able to access the crash site, except the neighboring country who likely supplied the weapon. I'm not optimistic about how useful the on site investigation will be in the current circumstances.

J

[Edited 2014-07-17 19:11:47]
 
illinicmi
Posts: 16
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:21 pm

RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:10 am

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 258):
We will likely never know who was in the control truck when the decision to fire was made.

I am reasonably confident that the crew who fired the missile are all dead, and the launcher and any other equipment nearby are in tiny little pieces.
 
CALMSP
Posts: 3025
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:10 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 83):

I wouldnt expect Putin to provide anything.
 
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Vio
Posts: 1563
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:11 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 250):
The transponder. I don't know anything about this particular SAM, but I know IFF was developed during World War 2 and modern transponders are compatible with IFF systems. I find it hard to believe an operator of any weapons system, even a slightly older one, would not be able to see the target was a civvie.

I say this because "It's be ridiculous if this wasn't true", not because I have any unique knowledge about Russian SAMs. If they're radar-guided rockets, you figure the fuckin' guy on the ground knows what he's trying to hit.

Yup. I know that ATC can identify us through transponder, but I wasn't sure what capability this SAM battery had to identify friend or foe based on the transponder.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think when the US Navy shot down the Iranian passenger jet, they thought the transponder codes of the A310 were that of Iranian F-14s... They actually went through quite the process to "confirm the enemy" and still got it wrong...
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
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glideslope
Posts: 1567
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting illinicmi (Reply 262):
I am reasonably confident that the crew who fired the missile are all dead, and the launcher and any other equipment nearby are in tiny little pieces.

All involved are most likely in " Tiny Pieces. "
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
jetterrosie
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:08 am

RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:20 am

I am seeing lots of people saying they will not fly MH again and actively encouraging their friends on social media to do the same. I work in the commercial side of aerospace (not for MH or any affiliate) and know this is so wrong. We all need airlines to succeed so there was never a more important time to reiterate that an airplane is still the safest place to be and if you don't want to see MH go under people still need to fly them. I'm so saddened by this, shocked even. Just last week I did four long hauls on various carriers including two segments over war zones so I get how tragic and close to home this feels. But I still don't want to see the traveling public freaked out.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:20 am

FWIW I just looked at the flight aware tracks for the past MH17 flights (are they accurate on flight aware? ) and noticed that this MH17 flight was just a bit farther North...
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
dtwpilot225
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:31 am

RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:22 am

RIP to all the victims. I just wanted to post this for everyone, the website liveleak.com has horrific and extrememly graphic videos of the crash site. I have no problem with the website live leak, I just wanted to warn anyone that finds that video that you will see bodies everywhere. I did not know of live leak and did not know how graphic it would be. It does not look like the movies I will tell you that. I pray for all the families involved that they find peace, and that they don't see these images.
 
illinicmi
Posts: 16
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:21 pm

RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:22 am

Quoting glideslope (Reply 265):
All involved are most likely in " Tiny Pieces. "

+1 for accuracy.   
 
flightsimer
Posts: 1052
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RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:24 am

Finally caught up with all the threads, but was listening to the tv while doing so. Last figures I have heard on passengers is that there were actually 283 passengers and 15 crew members, therefore 298 total victims, not 295. The three extra victims were babies not holding tickets.
Commercial / Airline Pilot
 
nupogodi
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 am

RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:25 am

Quoting vio (Reply 264):
Yup. I know that ATC can identify us through transponder, but I wasn't sure what capability this SAM battery had to identify friend or foe based on the transponder.

Well, was posted above that this system did have IFF ... as anything manufactured after WW2 would....

But you have to sort of rely on the fact that people trust you when you claim to be a civilian aircraft. Maybe the operator didn't.

Well, regardless, someone screwed up and now nearly 300 people are dead and a major international incident is brewing. Isn't humanity just awesome?
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3299
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:27 am

This thread has gotten long so Part 4 has been created to continue the conversation. It can be found here Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 4 (by jetblueguy22 Jul 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

All posts made after the lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only.

Regards,
Pat
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
FlyDeltaJets
Posts: 1652
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 4:24 pm

RE: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 3

Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:03 am

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 165):
A Russian helicopter discovered a massive gas explosion that created a huge crater in Siberia the other day. You would think that our super "sensitive" BS system would've picked it up.

Who says it didnt. We dont generally broadcast our surveillance capabilities.

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 256):
The fact that US and UK airlines received separate warnings to avoid this restricted zone, makes this look like there could have been some premeditation and planning involved

The FAA took the extra step above Ukrainian warnings. This may have been without todays incident haopening purely out of an abundance of caution.

People keep asking why would MH fly that route. FUEL SAVINGS!!!!! It probably costs easily 5k more to fly around Ukraine than over it. In hindsight a bad decision but before today it was likely unthinkable.
The only valid opinions are those based in facts

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