dtw2hyd
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:52 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 18):
There is no declared war and hence there is no war Zone. There are insurgents who may get some outside help but a war can be declared only between at least 2 legitimate countries, and luckily that has not been the case.

No need for officially declared war. As soon as rebels got their hands on such sophisticated weapon system two things should have happened barring asking them nicely to give it back, 1) clear the airspace 2) decimate the area until you are sure the threat is neutralized. It is the responsibility of Ukraine and its allies.

Going back to how rebels got the know-how to operate this thing. Three possibilities, 1) Russia 2) Ukraine defectors 3) Retirees from Russian/Ukraine armed forces. Buk being in service from 1974 may be they put an ad for personnel who knows to operate. Rebels getting trained is bit of stretch, every one saying it takes 6 months.
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:57 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 42):
Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 16):
MH17 appears to have had only one dual dutch/US passenger (who perhaps was flying using his Dutch passport), which seems an unusually low number of US pax. This raises the possibility that MH17 was selected for this reason

It took authorities over two days to determine the pax distribution, using all official channels available to them. How would the guy pressing the BUK missile button (or his commander) have that information available to him within two hours after take-off . . . . ??? And how do they have access to that information in the first place, never mind the limited timeframe?

That is a very good question and one which I do not have an easy answer.

I don't know how the Ukranian authorities would have access to the nationalities/citizenship of pax on on flights transiting their airspace. What is the location of the database where the data of who has boarded what flight stored? How many people have access to that information? I would think maybe more than a hundred people. Maybe someone should check the system logs. If it is in the cloud of a US domiciled company, then the NSA can force them to disclose that information or may already have routine access to that information.

I have some expertise in statistics, so my suggestion is to simply look at statistical distribution of citizenships of pax on MH17 compared to the distribution citizenships on the few hundred flights that passed over the same region in the last few days. I could be wrong, but my gut feel is that MH17 will be an extreme outlier in this respect. More specifically, that the low number of US citizens on this flight might prove to be very unusual, compared to the hundreds of other flights that took this flight path over the last few days. It is possible using statistical methods to calculate the probability that a random sample (MH17) came from the citizenship population distribution of the hundreds of flights over the same region in the last few days.

[Edited 2014-07-19 09:34:44]
 
Hywel
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:58 pm

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin deflected questions about who may have fired the missile as he called for an international investigation. But he made a telling point when he noted that the “tragedy would not have happened if military actions had not been renewed in southeast Ukraine.”

Those likely to agree with that statement include German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande who, during a lengthy four-way conference call with Poroshenko on June 30, tried desperately to get him to prolong the ceasefire. Only the U.S. voiced support for Poroshenko’s decision to spurn that initiative and order Ukrainian forces into a major offensive in the east.

It was in the context of Ukrainian forces using their airpower to strike rebel positions that led to the rebels’ efforts to neutralize that advantage by deploying anti-aircraft missiles that have achieved some success in downing Ukrainian military planes. The Ukrainian military is also known to possess anti-aircraft batteries scattered throughout the country.

[Edited 2014-07-19 09:02:06]
 
etops1
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting N202PA (Reply 47):

That is the 4R door your looking at there .
 
B797
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 18):
There is no declared war and hence there is no war Zone. There are insurgents who may get some outside help but a war can be declared only between at least 2 legitimate countries, and luckily that has not been the case.

You do not need need a official declaration of war to recognize that this is a war zone. 2 military aircraft were shot down already in the same week. One AN-26 was shot down the prior day and another aircraft a few days ago. I want a full investigation to be concluded before I can conclude that the rebels were the perps or the Ukranians. Keep in mind that Ukraine went on a PR blitz minutes after this happened. What are the motives they have? Plenty..
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting WingBuff (Reply 53):
If Putin's smart, he will hand over everything to Ukraine and the West. The finger is pointing at him, the Russian public is shifting its support away from the pro-Russian rebels and to the Ukrainian government as we speak. He's not in the position for trickery.

This was really a quite mindless article, stepped in generalities and broad assumptions. If you think Putin to 'not be in the position for trickery', I humbly suggest you underestimate the man, and grossly overestimate the nature of his 'current dilemma'.

Furthermore, perhaps you meant to imply that support for the pro-Russin rebels was eroding, but I am incredulous at the notion that it is shifting TO the Ukrainian government. How is this possible?
 
B797
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:04 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 34):
Kiev doesn't have much to gain from that disaster, they already had the support of the West, and the West was already sanctioning Putin. The timing of the shoot-down makes no sense from that point of view. As for the NOTAM, if you want to "maximize" the chance of an airliner being shot down, why issue a NOTAM at all ? Why FL320 and not 300 or 280 ?

Ukraine had no real support from the West except the words of leaders. The United States has almost zero involvement and the same for Europe. If Ukraine could escalate the situation and get sympathies of Western nations they could turn the tide. Ukraine needed a game changer event and the stars may have aligned for them with this tragedy. I am not trying to be cynical but we must thoroughly consider the events that occurred. I do not trust the United States government or Russia, France, Germany, and Britain to conduct this investigation. This should be left to the UN or a international organization.
 
Mir
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:09 pm

Quoting B797 (Reply 60):
I want a full investigation to be concluded before I can conclude that the rebels were the perps or the Ukranians. Keep in mind that Ukraine went on a PR blitz minutes after this happened. What are the motives they have? Plenty..

Why would the Ukrainians take a SAM system and set it up in territory they don't control, just so they can shoot down an airliner? The separatists don't have aircraft, so there's no reason for Ukraine to worry about air defenses, and even if they were worried about it you'd think that they'd place the defenses in the west where they could actually defend their own stuff. It doesn't take a genius to see that that's a move with an extremely low probability of success (in this case defined as shooting down the plane and not having anyone find out that it was really them that did it).

It also doesn't explain the reaction of the separatists after the plane was shot down (who went on their own PR blitz, first in one direction and then in the complete opposite direction), nor does it explain the reluctance of the separatists to let investigators into the area.

-Mir
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pvjin
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:12 pm

Quoting B797 (Reply 60):
I want a full investigation to be concluded before I can conclude that the rebels were the perps or the Ukranians. Keep in mind that Ukraine went on a PR blitz minutes after this happened. What are the motives they have? Plenty..

Rebels already admitted shooting down an Ukrainian cargo plane when MH17 came down, the tweet was deleted quickly afterwards. Wonder why?

Since a couple of hours after the event it has been absolutely clear it wasn't the Ukrainians who did this. The only question that remains is whether the rebels had stolen the Buk system or if it was given to them by Russians & whether the operators of that machine were Russian nationals.
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WingBuff
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:18 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 61):
Furthermore, perhaps you meant to imply that support for the pro-Russin rebels was eroding, but I am incredulous at the notion that it is shifting TO the Ukrainian government. How is this possible?

Ok maybe not the Ukrainian government. And yes, Putin is a shady character, he says one thing and acts differently. But surely the public isn't stupid enough to support mindless trigger-happy thugs who shoot without thinking and come up with absurdities like the victims being 'dead days before the flight, suspicious medical gear, blood-filled syringes'. That's what Strelkov said in a recent interview. Where's the evidence? One of the most ridiculous lies I've ever heard. People want true valid answers, and that includes Russians.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 61):
stepped in generalities and broad assumptions

Do you have anything better to offer? For the time being that's all we can do - assume.

[Edited 2014-07-19 09:23:59]
 
B797
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:24 pm

Quoting Mir (Reply 63):
Why would the Ukrainians take a SAM system and set it up in territory they don't control, just so they can shoot down an airliner? The separatists don't have aircraft, so there's no reason for Ukraine to worry about air defenses, and even if they were worried about it you'd think that they'd place the defenses in the west where they could actually defend their own stuff. It doesn't take a genius to see that that's a move with an extremely low probability of success (in this case defined as shooting down the plane and not having anyone find out that it was really them that did it).

The Ukrainian government reported multiple times that Russian jets violated its airspace. All I ask for is a independent investigation before I conclude what happened. Everyone is attempting to write a story and its plausible that Ukraine could have done this or the rebels or even Russia.
 
Mir
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:30 pm

Quoting B797 (Reply 66):
The Ukrainian government reported multiple times that Russian jets violated its airspace.

So why would they shoot at an aircraft on its way out of their airspace?

-Mir
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Scipio
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting B797 (Reply 62):
Ukraine needed a game changer event and the stars may have aligned for them with this tragedy.

Not quite. The Ukrainian forces have been making good progress lately. The ones who needed a game-changing event were the separatists and their masters in the Kremlin.

To turn the tide, they obviously sought to neutralize the Ukrainian Air Force, by shooting at Ukrainian planes from across the border and by bringing in the Buks.

Things kind of backfired...

The Buks are gone, and the Ukrainian Air Force has been very busy yesterday and today...
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:42 pm

Quoting WingBuff (Reply 65):
Do you have anything better to offer? For the time being that's all we can do - assume.

NO. I just thought the article had a dearth of nuance (I know the Guardian isn't Foreign Policy). Anyways, it is largely the Russian public that WILL determine the direction of the conflict. Any further escalation in the near-term would be an ominous sign. I would suggest that anything even resembling Russian provocation during the oncoming weeks would be a true indicator of Russian and Putins longer term strategic goals.

Let us hope that cooler minds prevail.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:02 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 56):
No need for officially declared war. As soon as rebels got their hands on such sophisticated weapon system two things should have happened barring asking them nicely to give it back, 1) clear the airspace 2) decimate the area until you are sure the threat is neutralized. It is the responsibility of Ukraine and its allies.

They issued a NOTAM. If a NOTAM says there is a thunderstorm somewhere, you can avoid it by a few Km or by 100, it's up to you. Clearly many airlines thought flying over there was safe, despite everyone knowing about the shootdowns.

BTW I read about Antonov props being shot here every three posts, but nobody seems to mention a much bigger Il-76 was also shot down.

Quoting Hywel (Reply 58):
But he made a telling point when he noted that the “tragedy would not have happened if military actions had not been renewed in southeast Ukraine.”

In what way is it telling ? It's not like he is from the UN or something, he has his hands in the conflict, he has boots on the ground, he was the one who made the rebels think they could become part of Russia and consequently they started attacking Ukrainian police, mayors, public servants, etc. The war didn't come from Kiev. Besides, Putin isn't one to give lesson into stopping hostilities with separatists, he certainly didn't stop in Chechnya.

Quoting B797 (Reply 62):
Ukraine had no real support from the West except the words of leaders. The United States has almost zero involvement and the same for Europe. If Ukraine could escalate the situation and get sympathies of Western nations they could turn the tide. Ukraine needed a game changer event and the stars may have aligned for them with this tragedy. I am not trying to be cynical but we must thoroughly consider the events that occurred. I do not trust the United States government or Russia, France, Germany, and Britain to conduct this investigation. This should be left to the UN or a international organization.

I wasn't suggesting the West was helping with military operations, I don't know one way or the other but suspect that either they're not helping, or only the US is helping. I said already that politically it wouldn't fly in European countries to be aiding in a war where everyone is white. Nonetheless Kiev was already winning, again the timing doesn't work.
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D L X
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:07 pm

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 25):

I think we've found 9M-MRO.  

Huh?
Please explain.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:27 pm

Quoting d l x (Reply 73):
Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 25):

I think we've found 9M-MRO.

Huh?
Please explain.

I think it's an allegory. It would be truly mind-boggling, MH370 being hijacked to later serve as the target for the Buk missile, while MH17 is then hijacked and tucked away in a secret place... call in Tom Clancy. 


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slinky09
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:30 pm

Unlike the most recent major airline disasters, such as MH370 and AF447, one thing that is different here is that it's pretty much an open and shut case that MH17 was downed by an anti-aircraft missile, and we don't need 70+ threads of speculation. Even so, to be even handed, the black boxes do need to be recovered and analysed simple to conclude that no other event was the cause. But, as others have said, if the conclusion is a missile attach then it is a criminal activity and the perpetrators must be brought to justice. How that is concluded in a war zone is beyond me, but I still do hope that eithe the Ukrainians or themselves with the suppor of other nations can drive a safe corridor to the crash site. If only to ensure that the dead can be treated with respect, and their families and loved ones can perform their burials or other. It distresses me to hear of the lack of respect, looting, removal of bodies by those drunken, evil people who are threatening investigators and allegedly removing evidence from the scene, as well as looting possession.

I still cannot fathom why more assertive action isn't being taken!
 
trex8
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:42 pm

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 57):


I have some expertise in statistics, so my suggestion is to simply look at statistical distribution of citizenships of pax on MH17 compared to the distribution citizenships on the few hundred flights that passed over the same region in the last few days. I could be wrong, but my gut feel is that MH17 will be an extreme outlier in this respect. More specifically, that the low number of US citizens on this flight might prove to be very unusual, compared to the hundreds of other flights that took this flight path over the last few days. It is possible using statistical methods to calculate the probability that a random sample (MH17) came from the citizenship population distribution of the hundreds of flights over the same region in the last few days.
The group to be studied is all the flights between AMS and KUL not the several hundred other flights from Europe to South East Asia, whoever taught you stats didn't do a good job or your memory is failing.
 
trex8
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:49 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 74):
I think it's an allegory. It would be truly mind-boggling, MH370 being hijacked to later serve as the target for the Buk missile, while MH17 is then hijacked and tucked away in a secret place... call in Tom Clancy.

So Sherlock was real popular on tv in Ukraine!
 
timpdx
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:57 pm

bluesky9: where are you getting these crazy ideas? Is the Chinese media portraying the shootdown of MH17 this way? If so, I advise you to seek an objective news source (you can skip Fox, its pretty bad, but not tin-foil-hat stuff that you seem to be thinking of)

I would really be concerned if mainstream Chinese media were portraying this as a Ukranian conspiracy. That would be buying into the Putin propaganda machine...
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pvjin
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:00 pm

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 77):
If the Ukranians did do it or even if they only set things up for that to happen (via the NOTAM & the previous sitting duck military flights that were shot down), then the Ukranians might want to avoid annoying their main ally, the US.
In other words, the Ukranians might want to make sure that a large number of US citizens were not killed in this incident.

Your logic fails badly. If Ukraine was ruled by bunch of psychopaths who are ready to down a civilian airliner to gain support from the west it would have made sense for them to pick up an airliner that is full of both EU AND US citizen. That would have had the maximum effect.

Also Ukraine shooting down ANY civilian airliner would very much annoy the entire civilized world, including the US, and make them stop all the support if their involvement was found.

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 77):
Ok "EA CO AS" are you a moron or just another Fox News fool?

No, he's simply not a pro Russian conspiracy theorist, neither am I.

[Edited 2014-07-19 11:21:24]
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
alfa164
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting Hywel (Reply 11):
But at the same time, I don't buy into the theory that Russia should take much responsibility for it - they just supplied the weapons.

Russia supplied the weapons; they sent Russian mercenaries and security service operatives such as Igor Strelkov—the commander in chief in Donetsk and a Russian secret police colonel who fought in both Chechen wars—and Vladimir Antyufeyev, the Donetsk “deputy prime minister” who led the Latvian KGB’s attempt to overthrow the independent Latvian government back in 1991 to assist; they recruited local thugs to become the "independence army".... and, in turning over powerful weapons to these malcontents, these actions produced the result we see today.

It does no good to blame only the puppet; the puppeteer has blood on his hands.

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 15):
MH17 was shot down over a war zone. Why was it flying over an area where other aircraft had been shot down?
Airpower
To fight a successful ground war, it is essential to deny air power freedom of movement. Effective SAMs like the BUK are one of the few weapons that can achieve this aim. Anyone that does not have something equivalent will find it difficult to hold territory.
Motive
There is a significant benefit for Ukraine in this incident. Namely that the separatists may be denied access to weapons to defend against air attacks.
There is no benefit for Russia to shoot down an airliner.
There is no benefit for the separatists to intentionally shoot down a civilian A/C.
Planning
There are many advantages from Ukraine's point of view, to have an airliner shot down by the separatists.
Failing that Ukraine might shoot it down themselves, and then claim a BUK crew defected (perhaps not leaving them much choice).
Ukraine knew that separatists had captured a BUK.
Ukraine knew that their own aircraft were being shot down in this area.
Ukraine are responsible for assessing the risks and issuing NOTAMs for their airspace.
Execution
Knowing the risks, Ukraine issued a NOTAM that it knew would put hundreds of civilian A/C in danger of being shot down. This was an incident waiting to happen. At the same time US and UK airlines were "strongly warned" not to transit this area.
During the flight Ukraine ATC directed MH17 to descend from the flight planned FL350 to FL330.
Irrelevant
Most of the equipment being used by both sides is Soviet gear, so it means nothing if the equipment used happens to be Russian made.
Whoever actually shot MH17 down is not that relevant either, because if it was the separatists, then they are in the fog of war, where anything can happen and collateral damage is to be expected. However, if it was the Ukraine then that would more interesting.
This is not a situation where an ultra detailed investigation will be of much practical value to air safety, the main purpose will be political. By all means confirm that the A/C was shot down (likely) and not brought down by an on board explosion (unlikely). The only thing to learn from this is that airlines and pilots should not rely solely on NOTAMs issued by authorities in countries that have something to gain if an airliner is accidentally shot down in a war zone.
PAX Distribution
MH17 appears to have had only one dual dutch/US passenger (who perhaps was flying using his Dutch passport), which seems an unusually low number of US pax. This raises the possibility that MH17 was selected for this reason. Independent investigators should (if possible) look at the distribution of citizenships on the hundreds of other A/C that have crossed that air route during days leading up to the shoot down. If the MH17 pax distribution is very abnormal then that would raise a red flag that would indicate the A/C was selected, so that the minimum number of US citizens were on board. If that is the case, it would imply that Ukraine were directly responsible, rather than the separatists. (This is a suggested line of investigation.)

The Russian government, through its controlled media had produced a sickening amount of falsehoods, accusations, and conspiracy theories. It is a shame that some of them have made their was to A.net. No one other than the captive audience of "Mother Russia" and its cronies will believe any of it.
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pylon101
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:37 pm

It is quite sad that this forum turned into a mirror of U.S./EU MSM.
The Russians keep silence. And now our Chinese member is being harassed only for asking questions.

I was surprised (not say more) after reading this article in "Der Spiegel" (English edition.) Highly recommended:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...litical-independence-a-979695.html

"The Körber Foundation recently commissioned a study on Germans' attitudes toward German foreign policy. With which country should Germany cooperate in the future, respondents were asked? In a near-tie between East and West, close to 56 percent named the United States while 53 percent named Russia...". The Germans " have demonstrated a surprising level of sympathy for the Russians and their president, Vladimir Putin, in the Ukraine crisis. This raises the fundamental question of Germany's national identity. In the long run, Germans will have to decide which side they prefer."

Irrelevant? Maybe. Or it may be not.
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Mir
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:44 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 86):
And now our Chinese member is being harassed only for asking questions.

He's posted theories, which he has the right to do. Those theories don't hold up to scrutiny, and he's being told that. That's not harassment.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
trex8
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:49 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 86):
And now our Chinese member is being harassed only for asking questions.

Coming from Hk could make him/her a lot of things besides Chinese.
 
mham001
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 86):
And now our Chinese member is being harassed only for asking questions.

Maybe, by his theory, because there were no Russians on board, it is evidence the Russians shot it down. Makes as much sense...
 
alfa164
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 15):
Whoever actually shot MH17 down is not that relevant either, because if it was the separatists, then they are in the fog of war, where anything can happen and collateral damage is to be expected.

So... a group of rag-tag thugs grab a lethal weapon and bring down an airliner, and you give them a pass because they are in the "fog of war"? And almost 300 passengers and crew are "collateral damage" because this group of insurgents, powered by Kremlin assistance. fires at anything in the sky above them? Would you dare to say that face-to-face with the families and friends of those lost sous? There were real human beings here; can you fathom that?

With all due respect - maybe more than is due - that is the most ludicrous, uncivilized statement I have heard yet. Maybe it is time for you to review the facts that exist and avoid spreading disinformation and lunacy.
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pylon101
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:54 pm

It is not a theory. The Ukrainian Army relocated a division of BUK from Kharkov to Donetsk just few days before the tragedy.
We may have a situation when the rebels took one BUK complex some time ago, while five more were dislocated in the immediate proximity.
It might explain why the U.S. and the RUS intelligence agencies have been keeping silence.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:06 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 92):
It is not a theory. The Ukrainian Army relocated a division of BUK from Kharkov to Donetsk just few days before the tragedy.

Evidence?

And if they did, why would they have been trucking it towards Russia on Friday morning?
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Hywel
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:13 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 84):
Russia supplied the weapons; they sent Russian mercenaries and security service operatives such as Igor Strelkov—the commander in chief in Donetsk and a Russian secret police colonel who fought in both Chechen wars—and Vladimir Antyufeyev, the Donetsk “deputy prime minister” who led the Latvian KGB’s attempt to overthrow the independent Latvian government back in 1991 to assist; they recruited local thugs to become the "independence army".... and, in turning over powerful weapons to these malcontents, these actions produced the result we see today.

It does no good to blame only the puppet; the puppeteer has blood on his hands.

I was just trying to imagine things from the opposite angle.

Let's imagine that Canada was about to align itself with China via a customs union, but at the last minute they withdraw from it and consider becoming closer to the US instead. China then puts pressure on Canada and supports anti-government protestors, who eventually overthrow the government. The new pro-China government then rejects the constitution and passes a law banning English, making French the only official language. They also ban dual citizenship, stripping 5 million citizens of their US passports if they want to remain in Canada. Most Canadians are happy with the new government, but the millions of Americans who live predominantly in one province view the new government as illegitimate. They show resistance, so the government shells them and fights back. The US sees that its citizens are in danger, so it sends in security service personnel and supplies them with weapons/mercenaries to defend themselves, as it's in American interest to protect its 5 million US citizens living there. The province where the new government is shelling American citizens also borders the US, so it's in US interest to send in troops to secure the area and avoid any fallout over the US.

It's far fetched I know, but it's not much different to what's gone in Ukraine...
 
SonomaFlyer
Posts: 2213
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:14 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 92):

It is not a theory. The Ukrainian Army relocated a division of BUK from Kharkov to Donetsk just few days before the tragedy.
We may have a situation when the rebels took one BUK complex some time ago, while five more were dislocated in the immediate proximity.
It might explain why the U.S. and the RUS intelligence agencies have been keeping silence.

Care to cite some sources for this assertion? The Donetsk area is largely controlled by the separatists. Those dudes don't have aircraft so what would be the rationale of moving BUK batteries from Kharkiv to Donetsk? Why would they put such a sophisticated system in an area where it could be taken by the rebels?

It's pretty clear this was a massive mistake. The gleeful tweets and phone calls from the rebels turned to concern and later fear when they realized what in fact happened. Those folks proceeded to delete references on their social media sites to having a BUK system under their control. Why would they do that if they were not responsible?

As to the shoot down Putin theory - if Ukraine was serious about shooting him down, it would not have been a problem between their more advanced AA missiles and their fighter jets. UKR would never consider taking such action. The fact Putin flew through Ukrainian airspace indicates he and his security team had zero concern about such a thing happening.
 
trex8
Posts: 5364
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:20 pm

I always thought the "black box" was in the tail section. Hasn't that been found already? Thought I 'be seen references to the vertical and horizontal stabilizers being found.
 
alfa164
Posts: 3125
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:23 pm

Quoting Hywel (Reply 95):
It's far fetched I know, but it's not much different to what's gone in Ukraine...

It is far-fetched, and it doesn't fit with the facts we already know. It might make an interesting movie plot sometime - but the situation here is becoming clearer and clearer.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6122
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:26 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 86):
The Germans " have demonstrated a surprising level of sympathy for the Russians and their president, Vladimir Putin, in the Ukraine crisis. This raises the fundamental question of Germany's national identity. In the long run, Germans will have to decide which side they prefer."

Surprising really not as discussed and explained above. Affinity of the German left for the byzantine despocy back east is nothing new and sadly nothing surprising, however it peaked with chancellorship of that sellout Schroeder. Desperate Kremlin propagandists on a defensive right now will without a doubt try to spin it "oh, look at least the Germans love us!".
 
antskip
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:26 pm

Malaysia Airlines has released the passenger list:
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Natio...h-MAs-releases-passenger-manifest/
 
User avatar
pvjin
Posts: 3614
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:27 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 92):

Separatists already practically admitted shooting down the aircraft, there's no need for such silly conspiracy theories anymore.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13916
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:25 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:29 pm

Quoting WingBuff (Reply 65):
Ok maybe not the Ukrainian government. And yes, Putin is a shady character, he says one thing and acts differently. But surely the public isn't stupid enough to support mindless trigger-happy thugs who shoot without thinking and come up with absurdities like the victims being 'dead days before the flight, suspicious medical gear, blood-filled syringes'. That's what Strelkov said in a recent interview. Where's the evidence? One of the most ridiculous lies I've ever heard. People want true valid answers, and that includes Russians.

A few weeks ago Stelkov compained in his blog that he could not get enough volunteers from the eastern ukraine for his units, so that he had to use Russian volunteers from Russia.
From what I have heard, a lot of Russian speaking people in Eastern Ukraine want their language recognised as official language, but do not necessarily want to join Putin's Russia.
I have also read that many Russians of Kaliningrad Oblast (the former German province of East Prussia) want a closer connection with the EU (seeing how the economies and standards of living have improved in neighbouring Poland and Lithuania). I also know many ethnic Russians personally who are happy that they have EU passports from the Baltic countries, which allows them to work and live in the EU.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
awthompson
Posts: 517
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:38 pm

I would like to make a broader comment on this situation. Controversial it may be, but I can see it very clearly and have strong views on this:

The actual person(s) who launched the missile that brought down MH17 are not the problem in my view and quite irrelevant, sorry. The big picture is more to do with the fact that civilian airliners were flying over a war zone where missiles were in use, with the capability of bringing down such airliners. Arms were also in the hands of persons who have no clear authority/allegiance or command structure and not interested in any rules of engagement or human rights.

Blaming those who fired the missile is like playing with fire and getting burned, or, playing with a snake and getting bitten. You cannot blame the snake! However vast quantities of money and energy are going to be spent finding which snake it was. Why was the airline industry playing with the fire or the snake in the first place? Answers to this question will more quickly return my flying confidence than finding out who were the individuals, or even the sponsors, that shot down MH17.

From my position I am more concerned with complacency and poor decision making, perhaps even greed, in the airline/aviation industry as being the root cause of this tragedy.

The Ukraine (and ICAO) failed to close this airspace until it was too late. Looking back now, closing the airspace before the tragedy occurred was a ‘no brainer’. It seems so obvious, but somehow this chance was missed. Like most things, costs were likely the main reason. Its perhaps a bit unfair to have expected MAS operations to have known the details of what was going on in eastern Ukraine and have made accurately informed decisions regarding routes in that area. ICAO was responsible here, but failed miserably. If missiles in use in the area had capability of reaching aircraft at extremely high altitudes, which it is clear they did, why were passenger’s lives being put at such grave risk? My goodness, other planes had already been shot down! I know there were NOTAMs and advice put out in recent weeks, detailing airspace being closed up to a particular altitude and suggesting a certain level of risk etc, but clearly they were not far reaching enough. Basically the system failed big time. The airspace should have been completely out of bounds at ALL altitudes.

Looking back now, this was clearly an accident waiting to happen. Why was the chance to avert this sadly it missed?

I feel very sorry for all at MAS in that they have to go through this all again. They have been let down by the ‘system.’ MAS operations could not have been expected to know the details of what was going on in Eastern Ukraine. A ‘bigger’ system should have been there to protect them.

Humans with all their modern technology and knowledge, are very poor at identifying situations where action is needed and directing efforts and energies to situations that warrant it. I see it in my workplace. Time and energy spent/wasted on too many time consuming mainly irrelevant things (in my view) and the big point being missed. Negative trends going unnoticed until it is almost too late to reverse them.

For many months now I have also been concerned with Iraq. Watch flightradar24 or whatever site you prefer, particularly in the early hours (UTC) any night. Streams of widebodies (hundreds) from the Gulf airports to Europe/USA etc route the length of Iraq daily. I don’t know what missiles are in use there, or what their capabilities are, but I do know that there are persons on the ground who would give little thought to shooting down a civilian airliner. This airway through Iraq (one for northbound traffic, and one a few miles to the east of it for southbound traffic) is one of the busiest, if not the busiest in the world in terms of passenger numbers. I do hope we do not see something similar to MH17 happening there.

These concerns that I have related play close to my heart because in recent months I flew on MH3 LHR-KUL and MH4 KUL-LHR on almost the same precise route taken by MH17 on 17th July. Even when I was flying over Ukraine, serious violence was taking place in the Ukraine and was on my mind as we flew just south of Kiev, and just north of Dnepropetrovsk and Donetsk as did MH17 on 17th July. (I still have the screen shot taken from the on board HD moving map screen).

I photographed 9M-MRO in KUL a few weeks before the MH370 disaster. Ironically someone looking at my photo said to me that it was not clear due to the resolution whether it was an ‘O’ or a ‘D’. Well now 9M-MRD has also been lost!!!
 
AR385
Posts: 6928
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:40 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 76):
but my gut feel is that MH17 will be an extreme outlier in this respect.

Having my own expertise on statistics, (not as an Actuarian) but as an Economist, I concurr that MH17 is an outlier. The fact that MH370 ocurred for months ago disturbs greatly any statistical sample of nationalities for the purposes mentioned on MH17

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 86):
The Russians keep silence. And now our Chinese member is being harassed only for asking questions.

Your Chinese member called another member here "a moron and a Fox News fool", that, at the very least, robs him of any credibility WHATSOEVER.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 98):
I always thought the "black box" was in the tail section. Hasn't that been found already?

It is. Both of them. Given the likely break up sequence, I doubt anybody has found them yet.
 
MigPilot
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:52 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):

  

thanks for bringing back some reason
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13916
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:54 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):

The actual person(s) who launched the missile that brought down MH17 are not the problem in my view and quite irrelevant, sorry. The big picture is more to do with the fact that civilian airliners were flying over a war zone where missiles were in use, with the capability of bringing down such airliners. Arms were also in the hands of persons who have no clear authority/allegiance or command structure and not interested in any rules of engagement or human rights.

The last sentences are important. It is the basic duty of any shooter, military or civilian, pistol or missile, to clearly identify his target before he pulls the trigger. The US forces got rightly accused by e.g. the British military in Iraq and Afghanistan to be too trigger happy, resulting in several "bluw on blue" incidents (shooting up one's own allies).

Putin actually went still further: Nothing would have happened if Ukraine had followed Russia's demands.

As for overflying war zones, I have been multiple times in planes overflying active war zones, but e.g. in Afghanistan cruise altitude was no problem, while, when we had to land e.g. in Kabul or Kandahar, we had to use special procedures (e.g. at night all lights off, a very steep descent, like and emergency descent after a decompression, or, after taking off, a steep climb, posssibly while circling over territory controlled by NATO until we were above MANPAD danger altitude). But in Afghaniostan the Taliban had no access to sophisticated heavy SA)">AA systems like the SA-11 BUK.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
Kaiarahi
Posts: 1807
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:55 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:05 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):
ICAO was responsible here, but failed miserably.

ICAO has neither the responsibility nor the authority to issue NOTAMs. NOTAMs are issued by individual countries. While it is the responsibility of operators / flight crews to be aware of relevant NOTAMs, Eurocontrol does reject flight plans that include closed airspace.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
MigPilot
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:09 pm

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 108):
But in Afghaniostan the Taliban had no access to sophisticated heavy SA)">AA systems like the SA-11 BUK.

I think your last sentence is the important one  

You would expect the behaviour described in your first paragraph from any regular troops. But in the chaotic situation as in eastern Ukraine it is naive to assume that the "soldiers" which are figting there stick to such procedures
 
AR385
Posts: 6928
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:10 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):
Why was the airline industry playing with the fire or the snake in the first place?

Because it was not publicly known the Russian Separatists had acquired weaponry capable of shooting down an airliner in cruise.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):
Looking back now, this was clearly an accident waiting to happen.

Accident:

Share: Cite / link:
ac·ci·dent (ks-dnt, -dnt)
n.
1.
a. An unexpected and undesirable event, especially one resulting in damage or harm: car accidents on icy roads.
b. An unforeseen incident: A series of happy accidents led to his promotion.
c. An instance of involuntary urination or defecation in one's clothing.
2. Lack of intention; chance: ran into an old friend by accident.
3. Logic A circumstance or attribute that is not essential to the nature of something.

This was no accident. This is a crime. And as such, it should be treated. Too bad the geopolitical considerations make it unlikely, but I would not use "accident" as the noun to describe MH17.
 
Scipio
Posts: 926
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 92):
The Ukrainian Army relocated a division of BUK from Kharkov to Donetsk just few days before the tragedy.

Any Ukrainian army Buk in Donetsk oblast would have been located well beyond range from the crash site. MH17 had been flying for at least about 60 km over rebel-held territory before reaching its crash site, and the Ukrainian army would not station a Buk right near the frontline....

The older Buks that the Ukrainians have do not reach further than 30-35 km.

There is no location within a 30 km radius around the crash site (let alone the likely location where the hit took place) that is firmly under the control of Ukrainian forces.

A Ukrainian Buk would also have been linked up with the national air defense system, allowing it to identify civilian airliners and distinguish them from military targets, making an accidental hit unlikely.
 
SonomaFlyer
Posts: 2213
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:47 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:12 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 109):

Quoting awthompson (Reply 105):
ICAO was responsible here, but failed miserably.

ICAO has neither the responsibility nor the authority to issue NOTAMs. NOTAMs are issued by individual countries. While it is the responsibility of operators / flight crews to be aware of relevant NOTAMs, Eurocontrol does reject flight plans that include closed airspace.

It wouldn't be a NOTAM in this instance. However in international air travel, there should be a body with the ability and the expertise to issue edicts such as warning operators to avoid airspace given its a conflict zone. If not ICAO, who? Yes Ukraine should have closed the eastern two regions to commercial traffic. For several reasons including the income they'd lose, they decided not to. There should be a organization able to sit above individual countries when air routes are under threat. EuroControl could have also done or said something about NOT flying through that airspace as well.
 
flyenthu
Posts: 587
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2012 2:37 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:13 pm

This has probably been discussed or it is my ignorance, but couldn't the rebels determine the object (MH 17) as a civilian airplane? Didn't they have that capability? Other civilian airplanes have been flying in the airspace as well for a while. The important question is what led to to believing that MH17 was their enemy military plane, I believe an Antonov or something AN?? I am perplexed about this, especially, again, because other civilian airplanes have been flying over those skies.
 
lhrnue
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 2:47 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:32 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 86):
"The Körber Foundation recently commissioned a study on Germans' attitudes toward German foreign policy. With which country should Germany cooperate in the future, respondents were asked? In a near-tie between East and West, close to 56 percent named the United States while 53 percent named Russia...". The Germans " have demonstrated a surprising level of sympathy for the Russians and their president, Vladimir Putin, in the Ukraine crisis. This raises the fundamental question of Germany's national identity. In the long run, Germans will have to decide which side they prefer."

Irrelevant? Maybe. Or it may be not.

If I count correct this makes 109% in total ... not sure how this works. Despite the massive lost in trust (NSA spying) I can ensure you Germany will stay with the USA and the Western partners. After all it was the USA, GB and France which brought freedom to Germany, while Russia was always an aggressor. I can tell you ... my mother escaped East Germany just before the boarder was closed ... that will never be forgotten.
The outcome of WW2 turned Germany into a very peaceful nation but also into a very business orientated country. We actually don't have a proper army anymore. The German public didn't agree with any military intervention since WW2, although for political reasons Germany had some minimum involvement e.g. in Yugoslavia.

Germany has no resources other than people and is very dependent on the export of goods ... export of goods is only possible in a peaceful environment. So, how can you ensure a peaceful environment without having an army ... you create a Union with your neighbour. This is why Germany drove the European Union and it was Germany bringing as many countries easterly of Germany into the Union as a buffer to Russia, since Russia remains the big uncertainty in Europe. Despite this uncertainty with Russia, many German and European companies and governments created close ties with Russia ... we talking money after all and Russian gas keeps us warm during Winter. A situation from which Russia benefited ,however moving the Ukraine close to the Western alliance was to much for Russia ... still having tears about the end of the USSR.
And that's why Germany (and most of the other European countries) are a in strange limbo position. For sure wanting peace for the Ukraine but also having economical dependencies with Russia. It is this economical dependency which makes the German government reluctant to put pressure on Russia. And it is Putin who knows that and capitalises from this limbo situation, invading Ukraine directly (Crimea) or indirectly (separatists in Ukraine).

In relationship to MH17, separatist with a Russian agenda and Russian weapons have shot down a civil aircraft.
I have zero sympathies with the separatist, Russia and Putin. My sympathies are with the families of the victims.
Peace for the Ukraine.
 
karadion
Posts: 1020
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:06 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 5

Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:37 pm

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 115):
If I count correct this makes 109% in total

No, it's 56% and 53% respectively. It's just as simple saying "Do you like chocolate ice cream? Vanilla ice cream? Rocky Road ice cream?" and you get a number of 90%, 80%, 70%. It doesn't add up to 240%. So some of those people share an opinion that they want to work with BOTH Russia and the United States which they demonstrate they have no bias towards either ones.

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