b777a340fan
Topic Author
Posts: 674
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More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:03 am

IAD currently offers direct flights to Asia as follows:

CA - PEK
NH - NRT
EK - DXB
EY - AUH
KE - ICN
QR - DOH
SV - JED, RUH
UA - BAH, PEK, DOH, DXB, KWI, NRT.

I'm wondering if it'd be desirable/feasible or even in their possible expansion plans for airlines such as AI, SQ, CX, or JL to offer direct services from IAD to Asian destinations such as DEL, BOM, SIN, or HKG. I believe those airlines would benefit greatly not only in terms of geography, but also demand, etc. Do they have any intentions to branch out elsewhere other than ORD, EWR, JFK in the US?

Otherwise, will current airlines like UA offer more direct Asian destinations?

[Edited 2014-07-20 22:08:10]

[Edited 2014-07-20 22:08:30]
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:33 am

How about LY? I'm sure TLV-IAD can live off of diplomatic traffic alone with the right aircraft. Can a 763 make it?
Or IAD-DEL on UA or AI?
When wasn't America great?


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BigTom
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:45 am

Given that AI is currently banned from expanding in the US, IAD-DEL/BOM is only likely on UA.
 
bohica
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:06 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):
How about LY? I'm sure TLV-IAD can live off of diplomatic traffic alone with the right aircraft. Can a 763 make it?

A 763 can make it and you can fill the front with diplomats, but you still need to fill the back. No airline seems to be in a rush to start IAD-TLV. I don't have any statistics but I feel that there is just not enough traffic to warrant a nonstop between the two cities.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):
IAD-DEL on UA or AI?

Possible with the 787.
 
b777a340fan
Topic Author
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:25 pm

Quoting BigTom (Reply 2):
Given that AI is currently banned from expanding in the US, IAD-DEL/BOM is only likely on UA.

I didn't know about this. What is the reason behind this decision?
 
toxtethogrady
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:33 pm

AI's already been to IAD. They didn't last long, although some people blame it on the short hop to JFK prior to the long-haul to India. As it is, nobody's been able to make nonstops from the US to India work. I think JFK (and possibly SFO) are the only surviving routes.
 
jayunited
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:54 pm

Quoting b777a340fan (Reply 4):
Given that AI is currently banned from expanding in the US, IAD-DEL/BOM is only likely on UA.

I didn't know about this. What is the reason behind this decision?

EK has done a great job capitalizing on traffic bound for India from the US and I know that AI and UA will not be taking any of that traffic away from EK but demand continues to grow. Given that AI is now a member of Star I think it is possible and I stress possible that UA might expand their service to India. I agree with what another person posted that if expansion to India does take place on UA it would be on 787 aircraft but I do believe because of the growing demand for travel to India that there is a slight possibility that UA could add more cities from EWR or add new service from IAD or maybe SFO or who knows maybe even ORD.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 4:11 pm

Quoting b777a340fan (Thread starter):
I'm wondering if it'd be desirable/feasible or even in their possible expansion plans for airlines such as AI, SQ, CX, or JL to offer direct services from IAD to Asian destinations such as DEL, BOM, SIN, or HKG.

AI is banned from expanding in the US so a no go there. I do believe AI did fly to IAD at one time but backed out.

CX is also probably a no go. WAS-HKG is actually a surprisingly small market. HKG is a financial center as opposed to a governmental one.

I dont see what JL brings that UA and NH currently dont.

SQ would depend on the routing. It would be about what hole they can find from IAD.
Religion is the root of evil...
 
S75752
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 4:15 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
AI is banned from expanding in the US so a no go there.

Why are they banned?
 
modesto2
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:11 pm

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 5):
I think JFK (and possibly SFO) are the only surviving routes.

EWR, JFK, and ORD all have nonstops to India. 9W briefly operated BOM-PVG-SFO in 2008, but they later canceled the route.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:30 pm

Quoting BigTom (Reply 2):
Given that AI is currently banned from expanding in the US, IAD-DEL/BOM is only likely on UA.

Unlikely India will approve UA route. Application will be buried under paper work. Until then Euro legacies/ME3 can print money.
 
b777erj145
Posts: 134
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:36 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 8):

because India is downgraded to cat 2 ratings by FAA.
http://upgrd.com/aerospace/india-dow...ory-2-safety-rating-by-us-faa.html
 
jetblue1965
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:36 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 10):
Unlikely India will approve UA route. Application will be buried under paper work.

you mean as a revenge for FAA Cat II placement ?
 
b777a340fan
Topic Author
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:59 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 6):
EK has done a great job capitalizing on traffic bound for India from the US

Oh no doubt, there are plenty of options to get to India via LHR, CDG, DXB, DOH, FRA, MUC, ZRH, IST, AUH, etc. I was referring to direct flights from IAD. I'd love to see a IAD-DEL, IAD-BOM, IAD-TPE, IAD-HKG flight.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:07 pm

Quoting b777a340fan (Thread starter):

CA - PEK
NH - NRT
EK - DXB
EY - AUH
KE - ICN
QR - DOH
SV - JED, RUH
UA - BAH, PEK, DOH, DXB, KWI, NRT.

If you distill this list, it's heavy presence to ME, both in # of airlines and # of destinations ....

UA - DXB, KWI, BAH (tag), DOH (tag cancelling soon)
SV - JED, RUH (less than daily each)
EK - DXB
EY - AUH
QR - DOH

.... but rather low to Far East (only 3 destinations) ....

UA - PEK, NRT
CA - PEK
NH - NRT
KE - ICN

The whole "capital-to-capital" meme still holds, outside of UA's slogan. The only ones on this list that aren't capitals are DXB and JED. At most UA may consider IAD-PVG, but even then it's a pipe dream.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:22 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
.... but rather low to Far East (only 3 destinations) ....

UA - PEK, NRT
CA - PEK
NH - NRT
KE - ICN

Certainly a result of being in the shadows of JFK and EWR, to a lesser extent, YYZ. Noticeably, PHL and YUL still do not have nonstops to Asia, and only recently did BOS receive nonstop service from JL (2012) and HU (2014).
 
S75752
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:44 am

Quoting b777erj145 (Reply 11):

because India is downgraded to cat 2 ratings by FAA.
http://upgrd.com/aerospace/india-dow...ory-2-safety-rating-by-us-faa.html

Lame... How long until they might get back to Category 1?
 
jfidler
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:07 am

Isn't IAD-SIN offered on UA as a tag from NRT?

My votes for new service would be:
OZ: ICN. KE can support ICN flights, but OZ brings the advantage of connecting to UA's *A network at IAD.
SQ: SIN
MU or CA: PVG

What puzzles me is how UA and NH both offer flights to NRT that leave within minutes of each other, and both are in Star Alliance. Then CA just stated PEK service even though UA already had a direct. Why didn't CA just start a PVG service and code-share with UA on PEK?
 
jasoncrh
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:15 am

UA and NH fly at the same time from IAD to NRT in order to feed into their respective departure banks at NRT. In addition, that time is the only time during the mid day when there is a bank of UA flights feeding into IAD.

As far as Air China - Air China and United do not coordinate any route decisions at all. period. And they're not in an immunized agreement so they don't share revenues. period. The star alliance thing doesn't matter. Air China probably figured it could make more money flying to PEK than PVG, and that's the decision it took. Period. These Alliances are nothing more than grandiose marketing organizations. Without revenue sharing between airlines (and sometimes even with it), the airline has to think only of itself, not of others.

Quoting jfidler (Reply 17):
sn't IAD-SIN offered on UA as a tag from NRT?

My votes for new service would be:
OZ: ICN. KE can support ICN flights, but OZ brings the advantage of connecting to UA's *A network at IAD.
SQ: SIN
MU or CA: PVG

What puzzles me is how UA and NH both offer flights to NRT that leave within minutes of each other, and both are in Star Alliance. Then CA just stated PEK service even though UA already had a direct. Why didn't CA just start a PVG service and code-share with UA on PEK?
 
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zippyjet
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:27 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 1):

Putting aside travel bans/restrictions LY out of IAD could really do well. Even without the diplomatic traffic the Jewish communnities of Baltimore, Washington and Northern VA. (DC Suburbs) could support such service. About a decade or so ago LY had service into BWI but stopped due to all the State (MD) restrictions, red tape.
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
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atcsundevil
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RE: More Asian Cities/Asian Carriers For IAD?

Thu Jul 24, 2014 6:35 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 16):
Lame... How long until they might get back to Category 1?

Well, I wouldn't call it "lame" considering the decision was made on the grounds of safety and in the interests of the American flying public. Those against the decision will argue with that statement, but it is the rationale nonetheless. They had about a decade to comply with FAA demands on a number of safety related issues, primarily with regard to the DGCA, the safety regulatory body of India. The biggest issue is the lack of qualified safety inspectors because the Government of India was against paying civil servants competitive wages that qualified inspectors could earn elsewhere (they are fully licensed pilots and rated on the types they inspect). They had something like 70 unfilled vacancies.

Once the FAA reevaluates and determines that the DGCA are in compliance, then they'll return to Category I status. Until then, they will remain in Category II status for non-compliance with FAA safety standards. As such, that restricts any Indian airline from codesharing with a US carrier (meaning AI's entrance to Star Alliance makes them unable to codeshare with United and vice versa) and prevents Indian carriers from adding any new additional service or frequencies beyond what is currently in place. Once they return to a status of compliance, those restrictions will end.

That reevaluation could be done at any time, so there's no real timeline as to when they could return to compliance. Realistically, it would likely take 6-12 months from the initial notice of non-compliance (the change to Category II status was about four or five months ago, I think), but for some countries like Indonesia, they've been in a status of non-compliance for many years and do not seem to be actively pursuing compliance.

------

As for the possibility of AI to IAD, I don't see it happening. ULH flights from India to North America are largely unsuccessful, with the major exception being NYC, and to a much lesser extent ORD. YYZ, like IAD, has a huge Indian population, but was unable to sustain a YYZ-DEL flight. ULH economics just don't work when the main competitor is EK, given their extensive connecting opportunities and their appeal to premium flyers. Premium passengers would sooner fly a one-stop on EK before they'd even consider a non-stop on AI.

I don't see why IAD-TLV couldn't work, perhaps with a 787 or a two-class 767 on UA. Government fares could easily sustain the route provided there are enough of them (without numbers it's hard to say). Both KWI and the BAH tag live off of government fares. I think that if the political situation in Iraq ever stabilizes, flights to Baghdad could be possible given the number of diplomats and contractors still there. IIRC, the US Embassy in Baghdad is the US's largest embassy in the world. That likely wouldn't happen for several years though.

I think additional flights to the Middle East are more likely than new routes to the Far East. The US presence in the Middle East and their growth of airline traffic, industry, business, etc. make it a logical place for expansion, that and they're much more doable since most Far East flights are ULH and are less likely to be profitable.

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