Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 7

bnatraveler · Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:28 am

The previous discussion had 200+ responses and was slow to load for some users so Part 6 has been created to continue the conversation.

The previous thread can be found here: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 6 (by EK413 Jul 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

We ask that you please be respectful to the victim's families. In addition do NOT post pictures of the crash site if they contain victims & ask that you link to them with a warning.

Additionally, this is a charged environment so please refrain from political, polarizing or likely flame-baiting comments in your replies. If you desire to discuss politics, etc. you can post in the Non-Aviation forum as there is at least one thread in that forum that is discussing this matter: Political Ramifications Of MH17 (by RomeoBravo Jul 17 2014 in Non Aviation).

For the benefit of the discussion, we again ask that non-aviation discussion in this thread be directed to the appropriate thread the Non-Aviation forum and no longer continue in the Civil Aviation thread.

BNAtraveler

[Edited 2014-07-21 17:44:44]

B797 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:38 am

I feel MH17 has been used by the United States and some Western countries to simply advance a narrative. I still believe a independent investigation must be conducted. The only evidence the Untied States has established is guilt by association. The families of these victims deserve the right to find out the facts of this tragedy through a fair and objective investigation. Not a narrative from the Russian media or Western Media or the CIA.

I have little faith in my governments ability to tell the truth after the Iraq debacle which is why as a US citizen I will yield that a international organization must be the finders of fact and then let people make a decision.

alfa164 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:40 am

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 212):
The Russian MoD has released a detailed report about the situation in the skies over eastern Ukraine at the time of the incident, including locations of Buk launchers before, during and after the days of the crash. So far this is the best "hard" analysis I have seen

You've got to be kidding! There is no "hard" evidence there; it is a collection of outlandish misrepresentations and outright lies. Please don't emparass yourself by touting such a blatently false piece of propaganda.

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 184):
Well... Maybe you could still watch the official presentation of the Russian MoD?

I was willing to look at your MoD's self-serving claims; in post 182, I ask you to examine the facts presented by anorther, more credible source, and tell us why you disagree. I am still waiting for you to present any facts to dispute this... and, so far, you silence has been deafening...

http://www.examiner.com/list/russia-...ies-about-downed-malaysia-airliner

There it is again... and we will await your reply.

ltbewr · Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:47 am

It appears that the Separatists have turned over the 'black boxes' from MH 17 to Malaysian authorities and many of the remains of victims are on their way to a city under Ukrainian government control.
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-rebels...wned-plane-malaysia-223606749.html
Likely pressure from the US, EU, even in the UN where the Russian rep voted for investigators to be let into the area of crash had an affect. I suspect that some of the Separatists feared getting cut off by Russia, and some may have some humanity and realized some others were wrong in keeping investigators out. I wonder how much was pressure from Putin and his minions to tell the Separtists to give up the evidence. I wonder if part of the pressure on Putin was from the Oligarchs fearing more financial sanctions that could hurt them and in turn hurt Putin.

Scipio · Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:10 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 245):
The Separatists are not Russian; they are Ukrainian citizens!

Here are your Ukrainian citizens, along with the equipment they bought at the local grocery store:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HaPQsMWahM

The language you hear in the beginning is neither Ukrainian nor Russian. It's no Slavic language ...

The prime minister of the "Donetsk People's Republic" (DNR) is Alexander Borodai, a Russian citizen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Borodai

The supreme commander / minister of defense of the DNR is Igor Girkin, a Russian citizen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

The prime minister of the Lugansk People's Republic (LNR) is Marat Bashirov, a Russian citizen

http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%91%...0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87

Quoting chiad (Reply 234):
Do anyone have a tip of an "unbiased media-source " somewhere in the world that doesn't benefit anything either way by the Ukrainian crisis?

Problem is, Russia has spent an enormous amount of money and effort on anti-Ukrainian propaganda. This has obviously infected/affected western media. The myths that Ukrainians are fascists and that the war in eastern Ukraine is some kind of "people's revolt" rather than a thinly-veiled Russian invasion have taken hold in the western media.

Ukrainian media are, naturally, not entirely objective either

However, Russia's role in eastern Ukraine has been so dirty that the only thing that is required to unmask it is attention...

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 240):
Ever since the people of Maidan got collectively tarred with the vile and false allegation of being "fascists" for claiming their freedom from brotherly - botherly - Russian love of the KGB kind, I can't but be an antagonist to Russia as it now presents itself.

flyingturtle · Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:18 am

The recorders have now been handed over to Malay officials, after Malay PM Najib Razak phoned with Mr. Borodai. A ceasefire will be in effect 10 kilometers around the crash site.

The deceased will be brought to Charkiv, and then flown out to Amsterdam.

These are the newest developments.

David

777Jet · Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:42 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 5):
The recorders have now been handed over to Malay officials, after Malay PM Najib Razak phoned with Mr. Borodai. A ceasefire will be in effect 10 kilometers around the crash site.

The deceased will be brought to Charkiv, and then flown out to Amsterdam.

These are the newest developments.

David

Finally some positive news. Good to hear that 'some' progress is being made. Hopefully the data inside the boxes is recoverable but if the plane was hit by a missile I'm not really sure what 'evidence' they expect to find in the data? Maybe a conversation on the CVR such as concerns about the route or something odd was spotted out of the window? Maybe the FDR kept working for a few seconds or so after the explosion and shows what the plane did? I'm not sure, but hopefully the boxes have not been tampered with and are in working order...

trex8 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:44 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 6):
Finally some positive news. Good to hear that 'some' progress is being made. Hopefully the data inside the boxes is recoverable but if the plane was hit by a missile I'm not really sure what 'evidence' they expect to find in the data? Maybe a conversation on the CVR such as concerns about the route or something odd was spotted out of the window? Maybe the FDR kept working for a few seconds or so after the explosion and shows what the plane did? I'm not sure, but hopefully the boxes have not been tampered with and are in working order...

On some previous incidents you could hear the explosion, or a noise which could be the impact and explosion

RayChuang · Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:51 am

I'm not sure how much information can be gleaned from the CVR and FDR. Here's why: the explosion of the warhead from the SAM may have created a powerful enough blast to effectively cut power to the both black boxes, just like what happened with Pan Am Flight 103 when the explosion from the bomb cut the power to both recorders.

flyingturtle · Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:08 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 6):
Maybe a conversation on the CVR such as concerns about the route or something odd was spotted out of the window?

Rather the noise of impact, mixed with "Holy Shit" and so. I don't think one could spot such a missile early enough - especially when they are not fighter pilots.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 8):

Pan Am 103 / Lockerbie... the bomb was situated inside of the aircraft, while a fragmentation warhead exploding 20 meters away from the aircraft probably does no sever hydraulics and electrics. It rather damages the hull, and the airstream does the rest of the job. IMHO everything is recorded as long as the cockpit and the tail section are still in "contact".

David

Mir · Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:17 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 6):
I'm not really sure what 'evidence' they expect to find in the data?

I'd be interested in the radio communications, and if there was a warning given on the emergency frequency.

-Mir

trex8 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:23 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 10):
I'd be interested in the radio communications, and if there was a warning given on the emergency frequency.

Do you mean a warning from the Sam launch crew??? Why would they do that if as likely happened they were under the impression it was an enemy plane? This isn't a cricket match and they have to be gentlemen!

rfields5421 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:59 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 9):
Pan Am 103 / Lockerbie... the bomb was situated inside of the aircraft, while a fragmentation warhead exploding 20 meters away from the aircraft probably does no sever hydraulics and electrics. It rather damages the hull, and the airstream does the rest of the job. IMHO everything is recorded as long as the cockpit and the tail section are still in "contact".

KAL 007 continued to fly for almost 14 minutes after the two missile warheads exploded just behind the aircraft and caused an explosive decompression. At least 11 minutes of that flight was controlled. The crew made radio calls to ATC during that period.

However the CVR/DVR data copies released by the Russian authorities ended about 1 min 44 seconds after the missile warhead impacts. This was blamed on damage from the missile fragments severing the power connections to the two devices. (The actual FDR and CVR released by the Russians had not retrievable data.)

The details of the last six minutes of Swiss 111 flight are unknown because the power was cut to the FDR/CVR.

777Jet · Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:11 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 10):
I'd be interested in the radio communications, and if there was a warning given on the emergency frequency.

I'm also interested if there was a chat with ATC in which concerns regarding the farther North route was expressed - assuming that route was not planned and was changed during flight (do we know if they already planned that diversion around the weather before departure or not given they get some weather info in advance?). That would be on the ATC tapes anyway. However, there could be some chatter between the pilots regarding concerns or thoughts on the CVR, or even some talk about 370... It will be interesting to see if such comments were said, or, if indeed a warning was given...

NAV30 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:41 am

This appears to confirm a 'direct hit' by a missile?

http://www.smh.com.au/world/photo-of...-claims-report-20140722-zvjur.html

777Jet · Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:51 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 14):
This appears to confirm a 'direct hit' by a missile?

Looks more like shrapnel damage from an explosion nearby the aircraft rather than a 'direct hit' to me...

NAV30 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:56 am

Anything's possible, 777jet. But the large hole in the middle looks like the 'exit wound' of the rest of the missile, after the charge had exploded?

LTC8K6 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:00 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 14):

It's pretty hard to get a direct hit with artillery or missiles. Designers figured this out long ago. So they came up with proximity fuses. Proximity fuses set off the warhead near the target. They detect that they are near the target in various ways. The explosion occurs close enough to the target to damage it with shrapnel and shock wave, with no need for a direct hit.

I don't think there is any doubt that 9M-MRD was destroyed by SAM. So there's nothing to be gained with pictures that show such damage.

LTC8K6 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:07 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 16):
Anything's possible, 777jet. But the large hole in the middle looks like the 'exit wound' of the rest of the missile, after the charge had exploded?

I don't think the hole is from the missile body, but likely a spot weakened by the blast and shrapnel and blown out or torn away.

I would say that the left seater was likely killed instantly by the shrapnel.

bluesky9 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:09 am

I am not sure whether a Buk can detect the altitude of an aircraft it is targeting, but if it can, then the Ukrainian ATC instruction for MH17 to descend to from FL350 to FL330 could have been the signal for the Ukranians on the ground to shoot it down.

Perhaps the black boxes will give us an idea of how soon after the descent the A/C was brought down.

Edit - after subsequent posts: There was an earlier report that MH17 was flight planned at FL350 but was directed to descend by Ukranian ATC. Not sure regarding how reliable flightaware is, but surely all the details regarding this will come out in the investigation.

[Edited 2014-07-21 21:37:58]

777Jet · Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:13 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 19):
I am not sure whether a Buk can detect the altitude of an aircraft it is targeting, but if it can, then the Ukrainian ATC instruction for MH17 to descend to from FL350 to FL330 could have been the signal for the Ukranians on the ground to shoot it down.

Perhaps the black boxes will give us an idea of how soon after the descent the A/C was brought down.

According to flightaware it never got above FL330?

LTC8K6 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:15 am

FR24 has 9M-MRD at FL310, then going to FL330 and remaining there until loss of data.

http://www.flightradar24.com/data/pinned/mh17-3d6095b/#3d6095b

777Jet · Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:16 am

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 21):
FR24 has 9M-MRD at FL310, then going to FL330 and remaining there until loss of data.

Flightaware shows the exact same...

YVRLTN · Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:34 am

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 2):

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 212):
The Russian MoD has released a detailed report about the situation in the skies over eastern Ukraine at the time of the incident, including locations of Buk launchers before, during and after the days of the crash. So far this is the best "hard" analysis I have seen

I guess what the Russians are trying to imply is not that the SU25 shot MH17 down, but because it was in the vicinity it was the intended target of the Buk, but maybe because MH17 was bigger / nearer / whatever was the recipient instead. Possible I suppose.

If the Russians saw the SU25 on radar, then hopefully Kiev / the US did too and it can be proved.

As an aside, what blows me away is that if this was an IL76 with 298 soldiers on board it would seem to be a justified act of war. Yes, I see soldiers know what they signed up for vs innocent neutral civilians but Im not sure why the world thinks its OK for this loss of life in shooting down Ukrainian military aircraft and more is not done to draw a close to this situation.

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 19):
could have been the signal for the Ukranians on the ground to shoot it down.

Please, no

The families & MH are going through enough without having to deal with conspiracies on top of it all.

LXLucien · Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:12 am

According to the Times of India and the AI Pilots who were 25km (90 sec) away from MH17, they were indeed on FL330 and were given a direct routing, so they didn't planed to fly over this Region in the first place.

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Air-...ight-MH17/articleshow/38702536.cms

Sorry if this already has been posted

asetiadi · Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:04 am

What is the maximum elevation range of SAM?

slinky09 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:06 am

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 25):
What is the maximum elevation range of SAM?

If it was the SA-11 variety, then reported to be maximum range of 35 km and altitude upto 22,000 m.

flyingturtle · Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:21 am

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 12):

Thank you.

The investigation of KAL 007 was also seriously hampered by the Soviets. Much worse than by the rebels now in Ukraine...

David

tommy1808 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:29 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 9):
Rather the noise of impact, mixed with "Holy Shit" and so. I don't think one could spot such a missile early enough - especially when they are not fighter pilots.

the way the Cockpit fragments look the cockpit crew was probably the first to die and probably didn´t even notice it.

-> http://abload.de/img/big6ljco.jpg

best regards

Thomas

SASDC8 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:40 am

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 17):

Except for the direction the Buk was traveling, which can be valuable in determining from which loaction it was launched from.

tommy1808 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:54 am

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 23):
es, I see soldiers know what they signed up for vs innocent neutral civilians but Im not sure why the world thinks its OK for this loss of life in shooting down Ukrainian military aircraft and more is not done to draw a close to this situation.

War is organized murder, and i am not referring to the moral issues, but the legal technicalities. There is no fair play, not need for warning, killing an unaware enemy in his sleep is ok, so it tricking them, in fact in war you will try to be as sneaky a murderer as you can be. If war is "ok", shooting down planes full of soldiers is ok too.

best regards
Thomas

Mir · Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:17 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 11):
Do you mean a warning from the Sam launch crew??? Why would they do that if as likely happened they were under the impression it was an enemy plane? This isn't a cricket match and they have to be gentlemen!

They did say "we warned you". And trying to warn an enemy plane off is perfectly reasonable - you achieve your goal of not having them fly over your territory, and the ability to influence behavior through the mere threat of violence rather than through actual violence has advantages.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 13):
I'm also interested if there was a chat with ATC in which concerns regarding the farther North route was expressed - assuming that route was not planned and was changed during flight (do we know if they already planned that diversion around the weather before departure or not given they get some weather info in advance?).

It's very likely the route was planned in advance and was never changed by ATC inflight.

-Mir

epten · Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:23 am

I am pretty sure that Su-25 could not intercept B777 cruising in the stratosphere. It can neither reach the altitude nor the speed to catch it in time, even if it was unarmed and half-empty. IF there was intention to intercept, surely MiG-29 or Su-27 would be used.

MD11Engineer · Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:26 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 8):
I'm not sure how much information can be gleaned from the CVR and FDR. Here's why: the explosion of the warhead from the SAM may have created a powerful enough blast to effectively cut power to the both black boxes, just like what happened with Pan Am Flight 103 when the explosion from the bomb cut the power to both recorders.

There are other computers on the plane where information is being stored, though they are not hardened like the FDR.

Jan

LH526 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:36 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 28):
the way the Cockpit fragments look the cockpit crew was probably the first to die and probably didn´t even notice it.

Can anybody with an insight in ballistics explain what's with all the holes on the cockpit fuselage? Comparing the cockpit fuselage skin to other parts we saw, it looks like shrapnells. What pierced that skin to that extend that it looks like a hillbilly roadsign being shot at with various calibres, and can one trade the path of the shrapnels via the trajectory of the exit / entry holes by comparing different holes on various parts of the fuselage? So a possible explosion on the 10 o' clock position of the plane would be possible, sending shrapnells to the fuselage and port side outer wing

[Edited 2014-07-22 01:59:20]

76er · Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:43 am

Newssources now reporting the train(s) containing 282 bodies and bodyparts of 16 people have arrived in Charkov. From there the journey continues to the Netherlands for identification.

Finn350 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:50 am

Quoting LH526 (Reply 34):
Can anybody with an insight in ballistics explain what's with all the holes on the cockpit fuselag? Comparing the cockpit fuselage skin to other parts we saw, it looks like shrapnells that exploded within the cockpit exited through the holes. What pierced that skin to that extend that it looks like a hillbilly roadsign being shot at with various calibres?

This is pure speculation, but the crew oxygen bottles might have exploded from the missile shrapnel and that would be secondary explosion shrapnel that is exiting throuh the cockpit skin.

PanHAM · Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:52 am

There is a statement issued by IATA about MH17. For those who do not receive the Newsletter, it should be on their Website.

It is a "must read".

As to the holes in the Cockpit fuselage, most likely that Missile explosed close by but did not penetrate the fuselage and explode then. No Need for a direct hit, the shrapnell and Deformation of the fuselage from the shock wave does the rest.

A grieving Task for the Dutch Military to fly the bodies home.

MD11Engineer · Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:09 am

The Sa-11 warhead is huge. It weighs 70 kgs, most of which is explosive. Since it is very difficult for an AA missile to score a direct hit, it is designed to destroy the aircraft's structure by blast and fragments, triggered by a proximity fuze.

Jan

LH526 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:26 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 36):
This is pure speculation, but the crew oxygen bottles might have exploded from the missile shrapnel and that would be secondary explosion shrapnel that is exiting throuh the cockpit skin.

The crew oxygen bottles are loated at the ee compartment on the left side of the wheel well .. guess the shock wave from multiple shrapnel holes in the fuselage is enough force to rip apart the entire hull. Off course that's all pure speculation and left to the investigators.

tommy1808 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:05 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 38):
The Sa-11 warhead is huge. It weighs 70 kgs, most of which is explosive. Since it is very difficult for an SA)">AA missile to score a direct hit, it is designed to destroy the aircraft's structure by blast and fragments, triggered by a proximity fuze.

Actually hit-to-kill is state of the art, but afaik the SA-11 doesn´t even have an impact fuse and it seems it worked as designed.

Quoting Mir (Reply 31):
They did say "we warned you". And trying to warn an enemy plane off is perfectly reasonable - you achieve your goal of not having them fly over your territory, and the ability to influence behavior through the mere threat of violence rather than through actual violence has advantages.

if they wanted to avert the Airliner from being shot down, all they had to do is to turn the target illumination off.

Plus to warn someone off, you don´t need to actually fire a missile.

best regards
Thomas

LovesCoffee · Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:18 am

Quoting epten (Reply 32):
IF there was intention to intercept, surely MiG-29 or Su-27 would be used.

I remember reading a report (sorry, no link) that Ukraine had deployed 6 Su-27 to act as CAP assets to protect Ukraine aircraft from attack. Now, these would have (should have) been also protecting civilian aircraft. But not much use if an SA-11 was fired. The Su-27 does, however, have altitude capability (62,000+ ft) to intercept any civilian airliner.

[Edited 2014-07-22 03:20:30]

checksixx · Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:37 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 40):
if they wanted to avert the Airliner from being shot down, all they had to do is to turn the target illumination off.

Sure, if the missile hadn't been fired. If it was already on its way, that wouldn't make any difference.

tommy1808 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:39 am

Quoting checksixx (Reply 42):
Sure, if the missile hadn't been fired. If it was already on its way, that wouldn't make any difference.

Commonly they self destruct if illumination is terminated plus a decent chance to miss to far for the proximity fuse, its not a fire & forget missile.

best regards
Thomas

AVLnative · Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:28 am

Quoting B797 (Reply 1):
I still believe a independent investigation must be conducted.

This article has some interesting thoughts:

http://townhall.com/columnists/ronpa...-report-about-flight-mh17-n1864290

76er · Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:29 am

Dutch PM Mark Rutte just gave another short statement to reporters and mentioned that Ukraine has turned over the intestigation lead to the Netherlands. The FDR and CVR were on board the train with the pax' remains and are now in Charkov.

LTC8K6 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:35 am

The missile used SARH, I believe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-active_radar_homing

tommy1808 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:37 am

Quoting AVLnative (Reply 44):
This article has some interesting thoughts:

Not really as it is very biased towards the shoot down being a deliberate act.

best regards
Thomas

factsonly · Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:58 am

The Royal Australian Air Force C17 has arrived at Eindhoven Airbase of the Royal Netherlands Air Force to support the repatriation of victims tomorrow Wednesday 23 July.

The Netherlands is using its C130s to shuttle experts between the Netherlands-Kharkov.

The two military forces will fly Eindhoven-Kharkov-Eindhoven tomorrow to return all victims for identification in the Netherlands.

http://forum.scramble.nl/viewtopic.php?f=41&t=107716

[Edited 2014-07-22 05:21:53]

LTC8K6 · Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:45 pm

http://news.yahoo.com/malaysia-airli...verts-ukraine-syria-021803956.html

"Malaysia Airlines plane diverts from Ukraine to Syria"

People are wondering about some of these judgement calls.

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