LAXdude1023
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DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:03 pm

I wanted to start a discussion on this for a while now and Im just getting to it. Being the #1 DFW psycho on this board, it would be up to me to start it anyway.

Its been no secret that DFW has been receiving a lot of love in the way Asian service. In the last year, weve seen announced:

DFW-PVG
DFW-HKG
DFW-DOH
DFW-AUH

and previously and relatively recently:

DFW-ICN

Also, Doug Parker has stated his desire (even if its not real) to fly DFW-PEK.

The questions are several:

1) Can the current level of service be sustained?
2) Will the growing AA fleet help with the more secondary DFW-Asia routes (Im speaking mainly of PVG but also HKG as well)?
3) The ME3 are unleashing an insane amount of capacity at DFW in a very short amount of time. Is this sustainable?

My thoughts are as follows:

To point one, Im unsure. On one hand, I look at ATL which at one or two points has received alot of service at once. Some stuck and some didnt. On the other hand, I look at IAH to which everything sticks. I think DFW, may fall somewhere in between.

To point two, the 787 will do wonders for a couple of these routes. DFW-PVG would be far better suited for the 787 and DFW-ICN would be a great canidate for the newly configured 777. DFW-HKG is the wildcard. The 77W may be two big, but the 787 may be too small.

To point three, if the carriers in question were European carriers, it would not be sustainable. However, given the resources that the ME3 have, I dont see any of them backing off DFW at all. The big capacity increase will really come from EK and the 380. I have always said that 17x weekly from DFW to the Middle East is do-able, but not when one of them is a 380.

Anyway, please give your thoughts.
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Stitch
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:08 pm

So are we thinking of DFW as an "Asian Gateway" in that we would see significant service to/from DFW by Asian-flagged carriers (SQ, NH, JL, MH, KE, OZ, etc.) or are we thinking of AA significantly increasing flights between DFW and Asian destinations (NRT, HND, ICN, KUL, BKK, SIN, PEK, PVG, HKG, etc.) making it an "Asian Gateway" for AA?

I could see the latter with AA adding the 787-8, 787-9, A350-900 and 777-300ER as that gives them a very flexible (in terms of capacity) long-haul fleet.

Not so sure about the former, as I am not familiar with the demographics and business links between DFW and major Asian metropolitan areas.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:11 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
So are we thinking of DFW as an "Asian Gateway" in that we would see significant service to/from DFW by Asian-flagged carriers (SQ, NH, JL, MH, KE, OZ, etc.) or are we thinking of AA significantly increasing flights between DFW and Asian destinations (NRT, HND, ICN, KUL, BKK, SIN, PEK, PVG, HKG, etc.) making it an "Asian Gateway" for AA?

Definately not the former. DFW is not going to be flooded with Asian carriers. At best, JL may show themselves at some point and AA may launch DFW-PEK.

Im basically talking about the flights that have already come about and if they are sustainable.
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Flighty
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:16 pm

I think AA is going to try like hell. But why AA really has is a 787 type network. The 777s just don't look necessary imo. Given the transit visas required, DFW is not a very convenient place for Latin America - Asia links. Although the geographic location is perfect. Without transit visa liberalization, DFW's hub catchment area does not seem to justify 77Ws to Asia. JMO
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:31 pm

Love the thread. Thanks for starting it, B!

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
DFW-AUH

I read somewhere (and this is a VERY unsubstantiated source) that EY is encouraged by the DFW flight and plans to increase frequencies up from 3x weekly in the future.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
To point one, Im unsure. On one hand, I look at ATL which at one or two points has received alot of service at once. Some stuck and some didnt. On the other hand, I look at IAH to which everything sticks. I think DFW, may fall somewhere in between.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
1) Can the current level of service be sustained?
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
To point one, Im unsure. On one hand, I look at ATL which at one or two points has received alot of service at once. Some stuck and some didnt. On the other hand, I look at IAH to which everything sticks. I think DFW, may fall somewhere in between.

One thing that works in DFW's favor is that based on the gradual increases in international service starting in 2008 through present times, one very noteworthy fact is that virtually zero carriers, be it AA or others, have withdrawn intercontinental services from DFW.

In fact, if I recall correctly, the last intercontinental route to be dropped from DFW was AA's flight to ZRH in October 2007. Considering all of the changes in the global economic climate that have occurred since then, combined with the drastic changes in the airline industry and all of the service growth DFW has experienced, I'd say that's pretty noteworthy. DFW's "comparative" airports (DEN, IAH, ATL and DTW come first to mind) cannot really claim the same.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
To point two, the 787 will do wonders for a couple of these routes.

  

Separately, I wonder what will happen to DFWNRT with the growth in DFW-ASIA nonstops.

Would it be possible to send the 77W to DFW-NRT and then move one of the DFW-TYO flights to HND, maybe launch a AA or JL 787 flight to Haneda? Depends on a lot of factors.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
To point three, if the carriers in question were European carriers, it would not be sustainable. However, given the resources that the ME3 have, I dont see any of them backing off DFW at all. The big capacity increase will really come from EK and the 380. I have always said that 17x weekly from DFW to the Middle East is do-able, but not when one of them is a 380.

Shockingly, AA is maintaining its 3x daily services on DFWLHR throughout the winter, bringing the total number of DFWLON flights to 4 daily with 1x 744, 2x 777 and 1x 77W.

That said, I think there are some key watch items:

1. How LFs change (if at all) on EK's DFW flights now with a) the introduction of QR b) the introduction of the A380 and c) the advent of EY in December. It is noteworthy that DFW is EK's only North American market with LF's in the 90%+ since inception.

2. How LH and KL will adjust capacity and frequency in the near future.
 
aznmadsci
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:43 pm

Would the flight(s) be in addition to what AA already serves from other cities, or would it be a transfer to DFW?
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TWA772LR
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:50 pm

If NW can make a Pacific gateway out of DTW, I'm pretty sure the new AA can make a gateway out of DFW.

That said, what happened to their plan to make LAX their Pacific gateway to compete with UA in SFO and DL in SEA?
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LAXintl
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:52 pm

For AA, if for whatever reason they cant make LAX their Asia-Pacific gateway then DFW likely must be it, unless they want to fight it out at ORD.

DFW geography is hardly ideal however. Both long stage lengths, and also not ideal for Northeast connections, while totally useless for West Coast traffic.
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jetblue1965
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:56 pm

The only question is how much DP is truly committed to his claim to make LAX a TPAC gateway, and how much (if any) LAX/DFW-Asia expansion will cannibalize ORD.

And it's really 2 things you're discussing here : 1. ME services, primarily benefiting India and neighbors, and 2. East Asian services, benefiting everything from NRT to SIN. (DFW-DOH-SIN is a good 2000mi longer than DFW-NRT-SIN so I don't think they're really competing for the same market)

1. ME services - those are staying. Those deep pockets wont retreat unless it's external events like Kiev.

2. East Asia - outside of oneworld partners, the number of foreign East Asian carriers arriving at DFW will be far and few in between.

If DFW-PEK comes to fruition, I don't see ORD-PEK surviving in its current form ... if at all.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:56 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 3):
Without transit visa liberalization, DFW's hub catchment area does not seem to justify 77Ws to Asia. JMO

It depends on the market. To HKG, perhaps. It has yet to be seen though advance bookings are looking very good. It is just a question of if the yield they are getting from it covers the cost of opperation. Filling the plane will not be the long term problem if there is any.

DFW-NRT on the other hand could easily support a 77W.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 4):
I read somewhere (and this is a VERY unsubstantiated source) that EY is encouraged by the DFW flight and plans to increase frequencies up from 3x weekly in the future.

I have spoken with several people at EY who have confirmed that the goal is for EY to be on DFW-AUH daily. Whether they will remains to be seen.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 4):
Would it be possible to send the 77W to DFW-NRT and then move one of the DFW-TYO flights to HND, maybe launch a AA or JL 787 flight to Haneda? Depends on a lot of factors.

In my opinion, the best thing to do is to have one 77W on DFW-NRT and one 77W on DFW-HKG to even out the traffic flows.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 4):
1. How LFs change (if at all) on EK's DFW flights now with a) the introduction of QR b) the introduction of the A380 and c) the advent of EY in December. It is noteworthy that DFW is EK's only North American market with LF's in the 90%+ since inception.

At several points last year, EK had higher LF's at DFW than BA did. Its really quite remarkable. That underscored the fact that DFW needed more than just one ME3 carrier, but three (including one with a 380) may be pushing it.

Quoting aznmadsci (Reply 5):
Would the flight(s) be in addition to what AA already serves from other cities, or would it be a transfer to DFW?

I think it depends. I dont know how DFW-Asia flights preform relative to the other hubs other than NRT for which DFW-NRT preforms better than ORD or LAX to NRT for AA.
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IAHWorldflyer
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:02 pm

Good topic!

As for routes to East Asia ( mostly flown by AA), I think HKG is going to do well, even with the capacity of the 77W. It may take some time, but if AA gives this 24 months, I think it will be a winner. PVG is the one that I think could be questionable, seeing as how other routes from the US to PVG have struggled recently. However, the Air China flight from IAH-PEK has, to my understanding, done incredibly well, so it's very possible there's an underserved market from Texas to China that will ignite once the DFW-PVG service gets going.
Capacity to the Middle East looks to me like a lot. Especially with the A380 daily. QH will be helped by the codeshares with AA and One World. I think that AA does a much better job ( as does Skyteam) in feeding alliance flights than does UA down in Houston. If you look at UA's website, it seems they will route you any which way on their own metal to get you across the Atlantic. AA and DL will show you other partner's schedules if they are more convenient. EY looks like they are just piggy-backing onto what everyone else has, and without good feed.
My question to you, since you follow this more than I, is how are the fares on the ME3 going to the Gulf, and beyond to India? My understanding from reading your previous posts is that DFW has a larger population with ties to South Asia than does Houston, and they are helping fill up the EK flights. Whereas EK at IAH is more reliant on J class business traffic going to the Gulf. If the ME3 can get decent yields out of the VFR traffic to India, I think they will all stay. If not, one carrier may find that it's better to deploy an aircraft on a route that will make them more money.
Finally, what's the primary traffic of KL at DFW? I doubt more than 30% of the plane terminates at AMS. So where are they connecting to? If it's Asia, then yields for them may drop, and they may choose to cut capacity down to 5x a week, especially in winter. DFW is much more a fortress hub, similar to ATL, than is IAH ( that's a whole other topic). So it may be harder for a non-alliance foreign flagged carrier to make money there, when BA and AA can get you most anywhere you need to go, earning miles and status at the same time.
 
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:12 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
To point two, the 787 will do wonders for a couple of these routes. DFW-PVG would be far better suited for the 787 and DFW-ICN would be a great canidate for the newly configured 777. DFW-HKG is the wildcard. The 77W may be two big, but the 787 may be too small.

If that's the case, they will just simply throw a 772 on it. AA fleet is big and varied enough to really have the right plane for the route.

bchandl
 
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:19 pm

Quoting bchandl (Reply 11):
If that's the case, they will just simply throw a 772 on it. AA fleet is big and varied enough to really have the right plane for the route.

It is a ULH route that the 77W can barely do, 77E can't do, 788 might do and 789 can do.
 
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:20 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 2):
Definately not the former. DFW is not going to be flooded with Asian carriers. At best, JL may show themselves at some point and AA may launch DFW-PEK.

  

Quoting Flighty (Reply 3):
But why AA really has is a 787 type network. The 777s just don't look necessary imo.

I agree that in general, most of AA's Asian routes make far more sense with 787s than 777s, and thus why I fully expect that, within a few years, virtually all of AA's Asian routes will, in fact, be flown with 787s. The only ones I think are likely to keep 777s are DFW-NRT, ORD-NRT and possibly DFW-ICN.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 3):
Given the transit visas required, DFW is not a very convenient place for Latin America - Asia links. Although the geographic location is perfect.

And yet thousands upon thousands of people do it every year ...

Quoting Flighty (Reply 3):
Without transit visa liberalization, DFW's hub catchment area does not seem to justify 77Ws to Asia.

DFW-NRT should definitely be able to support an aircraft that size, and with F. DFW-HKG? TBD.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 4):
Separately, I wonder what will happen to DFWNRT with the growth in DFW-ASIA nonstops.

Would it be possible to send the 77W to DFW-NRT and then move one of the DFW-TYO flights to HND, maybe launch a AA or JL 787 flight to Haneda? Depends on a lot of factors.

I think the answer could be a daily AA 77W, and if any more capacity is needed maybe 3-5 weekly JAL 787s timed with an 1100-1230 NRT departure (like AA176 now) to meet the morning bank out of NRT.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
For AA, if for whatever reason they cant make LAX their Asia-Pacific gateway then DFW likely must be it

True, although it doesn't seem like AA is treating it as either-or.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
The only question is how much DP is truly committed to his claim to make LAX a TPAC gateway

Recent actions - numerous new routes added in the last few years, recent upgauging of capacity in multiple markets, taking over T6 gates, etc. - indicates AA is very serious about LAX.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
how much (if any) LAX/DFW-Asia expansion will cannibalize ORD.

Possible, although I think part of that might be offset by reduced capacity by replacing 777s with smaller 787s.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:55 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 13):
Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
The only question is how much DP is truly committed to his claim to make LAX a TPAC gateway

Recent actions - numerous new routes added in the last few years, recent upgauging of capacity in multiple markets, taking over T6 gates, etc. - indicates AA is very serious about LAX.

Serious about LAX as a hub versus committed to LAX as a TPAC gateway aren't 1-to-1. We're still waiting for the first changes, let alone the fruits of the labor.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 6):
That said, what happened to their plan to make LAX their Pacific gateway to compete with UA in SFO and DL in SEA?

A lot easier said than done. AKL might be the low hanging fruit, but having NRT+PVG+AKL does not make it a "gateway" per se.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:57 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 6):
If NW can make a Pacific gateway out of DTW, I'm pretty sure the new AA can make a gateway out of DFW.

In fairness, even though DFW-Asia is a larger market than DTW-Asia, DTW has two things in its favor:

1) Geography. Its in a perfect place to capture traffic from the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest
2) The Auto Industry. This helps the flights incredibly (especially to Japan and PVG). DFW's economy is far more diverse and that is mostly a good thing as it helps keep things stable down here, but it can mean that there arent specific locales around the globe that have specific ties to DFW the way markets like DTW-NGO or IAH-AMS do.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
DFW geography is hardly ideal however. Both long stage lengths, and also not ideal for Northeast connections, while totally useless for West Coast traffic.

I cant argue with that, but does DFW really need the West Coast or Northeast to support a handful of flights to Asia with the local market, Texas, the Southeast, the Midwest, and Latin America? Granted, DFW couldnt never support what the West Coast airports, NYC, or ORD do to Asia, but a flight to NRT, ICN, HKG, and PVG? I dont think thats so far of a reach especially once AA rightsizes the aircraft. Its worth noting that DFW-ICN is actually a very large market in its own right and DFW-NRT has been the one tried and true route to Asia AA has had over the years.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
And it's really 2 things you're discussing here : 1. ME services, primarily benefiting India and neighbors, and 2. East Asian services, benefiting everything from NRT to SIN. (DFW-DOH-SIN is a good 2000mi longer than DFW-NRT-SIN so I don't think they're really competing for the same market)

Indeed I am, but while its true that DFW-NRT-SIN isnt as far as DFW-DOH-SIN, the ME3 actually carry more Southeast Asia traffic from here than one would think. Thats not specific to DFW either. EK and QR carry quite a bit of VFR from IAH-Asia as well. Its not the bulk of the traffic for sure, but its not nothing either.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
1. ME services - those are staying. Those deep pockets wont retreat unless it's external events like Kiev.

Yep. I agree.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
2. East Asia - outside of oneworld partners, the number of foreign East Asian carriers arriving at DFW will be far and few in between

I would argue that other than KE, DFW wont see a non-OneWorld/AA affiliated East Asian carrier at all.

Quoting bchandl (Reply 11):
If that's the case, they will just simply throw a 772 on it. AA fleet is big and varied enough to really have the right plane for the route.

The 772 doesnt have the legs.

Quoting IAHWorldflyer (Reply 10):
PVG is the one that I think could be questionable, seeing as how other routes from the US to PVG have struggled recently.

Yes, I agree. DFW-PVG is one to watch.

Quoting IAHWorldflyer (Reply 10):
I think HKG is going to do well, even with the capacity of the 77W. It may take some time, but if AA gives this 24 months, I think it will be a winner

I also think DFW-HKG will stick. But it may be a 789 route in the future. I do think it will stick around.

Quoting IAHWorldflyer (Reply 10):
QH will be helped by the codeshares with AA and One World.

Here is an interesting point that I dont know if anyone has brought up. DFW-DOH is the ONLY route in QR's American network that AA does NOT codeshare on. There are no codeshares from AA on DFW-DOH-XXX unlike IAH, MIA, ORD, IAD, and JFK which AA codes QR's flights.

Anyone know why?

Quoting IAHWorldflyer (Reply 10):
My question to you, since you follow this more than I, is how are the fares on the ME3 going to the Gulf, and beyond to India?

They have been relatively good (ephasis on relative because we are talking about India), but I think they are about to plumet.

Quoting IAHWorldflyer (Reply 10):
My understanding from reading your previous posts is that DFW has a larger population with ties to South Asia than does Houston

DFW does have a larger South Asian population than Houston (sans Pakistanis) and Houston has a larger East Asian population than DFW does (sans Koreans), but O&D to India is similar from both DFW and IAH though DFW-India (sans Mumbai) is growing alot faster. The difference is that DFW-India is much more scattered around where as IAH-India is centered on Mumbai and Delhi mainly. Another difference is that IAH has the oil traffic to the MIddle East that DFW has a lot less of.

Quoting IAHWorldflyer (Reply 10):
Finally, what's the primary traffic of KL at DFW? I doubt more than 30% of the plane terminates at AMS. So where are they connecting to?

I think its far less than that. Its mostly DFW-Europe traffic of the tourist nature, Africa, and India. The DFW-Europe business traffic goes to BA and to a lesser degree LH as its mostly LHR, CDG, FRA, and MAD.
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jetblue1965
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:09 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):
Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
And it's really 2 things you're discussing here : 1. ME services, primarily benefiting India and neighbors, and 2. East Asian services, benefiting everything from NRT to SIN. (DFW-DOH-SIN is a good 2000mi longer than DFW-NRT-SIN so I don't think they're really competing for the same market)

Indeed I am, but while its true that DFW-NRT-SIN isnt as far as DFW-DOH-SIN, the ME3 actually carry more Southeast Asia traffic from here than one would think. Thats not specific to DFW either. EK and QR carry quite a bit of VFR from IAH-Asia as well. Its not the bulk of the traffic for sure, but its not nothing either.

I don't doubt the draw of low fares to ME3, but aren't those pax (the ones willing to go 2000 miles extra to save $100 a head) exactly the type where the legacy carriers would like to offload ?
 
Prost
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:15 pm

How closely aligned are AA and CX? I always felt that AA could do their best by funneling passengers to TYO and HKG to join up with oneworld partners JL and CX to meet their customers needs. DFW and AA ought to be a more successful gateway than DL had at ATL, but AA's best bet would be to compete hard in LAX. I think UA is vulnerable in LAX because SFO is so close, and I'm not certain how committed DL would be to LAX with a full AA onslaught.
 
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fxramper
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:16 pm

It's the flavor of the week. Officially, they wanted ORD. Unofficially it seems to be LAX. DFW could work, I guess.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Also, Doug Parker has stated his desire (even if its not real) to fly DFW-PEK.

Didn't Arpey say they same thing?
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:25 pm

Quoting fxramper (Reply 18):
Didn't Arpey say they same thing?

The pilots had other ideas...
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LAXintl
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:40 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 17):
How closely aligned are AA and CX?

Codesharing and FF'er benefits, not anything close to a JV.

Overall the relationship is actually not that hot.

AA's closest partner in the region is JAL, but even that has some issues as JL tries to find its footing on stage again which does not always align with AA interest.
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bartond
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:50 pm

These are all good points and a good thread overall.

Regarding the ME3 carriers, even though they are wealthy and government-supported, it just seems like it was a race to serve DFW and one of them will have to drop out at some point. EK looks well-established and will probably stick around, but Qatar and Etihad may have to duke it out to see who the second established player is.

Regarding flights/service to Asia, I agree that there probably won't be another new carrier to serve East Asia, but I will also say that the recent influx of companies, including Toyota North America, to relocate their headquarters to DFW can not hurt DFW's chances for keeping all of the new service. A few more companies (mostly tech) have recently moved their HQ's from San Diego and other points within California to DFW so this will only help DFW's Asia flights. Every little bit helps.
 
Prost
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:53 pm

I'll be curious if AA or JL will start DFW-NGO for Toyota and other auto related traffic.
 
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Not so sure about the former, as I am not familiar with the demographics and business links between DFW and major Asian metropolitan areas.

Well, Toyota is moving their N. American headquarters to DFW.
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LAXdude1023
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:58 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 22):
I'll be curious if AA or JL will start DFW-NGO for Toyota and other auto related traffic.

Why though? AA flew ORD-NGO for a while because they had a Toyota contract, but as soon as the contract went, AA canned it. I realize that Toyota is moving a lot of jobs from LA to Plano, but what Toyota had in LA wasnt even enough to get an LAX-NGO flight.

Lets face it, as far as NGO is concerned, DTW is the only market with considering in North America. Even UA cant make it work from SFO.

Quoting bartond (Reply 21):
Regarding flights/service to Asia, I agree that there probably won't be another new carrier to serve East Asia, but I will also say that the recent influx of companies, including Toyota North America, to relocate their headquarters to DFW can not hurt DFW's chances for keeping all of the new service. A few more companies (mostly tech) have recently moved their HQ's from San Diego and other points within California to DFW so this will only help DFW's Asia flights. Every little bit helps.

This is true. DFW is growing by leaps and bounds where as markets on the West Coast and North East are pretty well established. Markets like DFW, IAH, and ATL have their best days ahead of them.
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sunrisevalley
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:59 pm

Another recent thread spent sometime on the fact that AA was having flight planning "challenges" with the 77W on DFW-HKG. Much of it to do with alternates and second stage climb. Nearby mainland alternates do not permit passengers to be disembarked and are likely to be suffering the same weather problems as HKG. Zeke says TPE would need an additional 6.5t of fuel , MFM is close by but it could be suffering from the same weather.
 
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:06 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):
There are no codeshares from AA on DFW-DOH-XXX unlike IAH, MIA, ORD, IAD, and JFK which AA codes QR's flights.

Wow! Definitely did not know this. I wonder if this was in response to EY starting DFW in August.

FYI, QR also codeshares with US Airways out of PHL.

Quoting bartond (Reply 21):
EK looks well-established and will probably stick around, but Qatar and Etihad may have to duke it out to see who the second established player is.

Since the ME 3 launched services to the U.S. a decade ago, the only carrier that has pulled out of a single market has been Qatar at EWR and EK dropping JFK-HAM.

Even though DFW may be overserved with 3 ME 3 carriers, I don't think one of them will blink anytime soon.
 
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:52 pm

A bit of news. Doug Parker just appeared at the annual GBTA (Global Business Travel) convention which happens to be in LA this year.

As part of his Q&A with the moderator NBCs Peter Greenberg he mentioned he just spent this morning talking about how AA could build LAX into "our Asian gateway".

In other comments however he stated however AA was not going to be hasty in moving the chess pieces around globe, and the primary taks and focus for everyone was the merger and integration would take till late 2015.
Most network changes in the interim would be focused on the domestic arena such as "getting rid of the MD-80 as quickly as we can" (which drew an applause), and adjusting hub schedules.


Oh p.s. - for anyone worried about AAdvantage changes (revenue model ala DL/UA) he said while "we may chose to do that", any changes to FF'er program structure before full integration would add needless complication and be "foolish".

[Edited 2014-07-29 15:05:23]
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jfklganyc
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 10:06 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):

1) Can the current level of service be sustained?
2) Will the growing AA fleet help with the more secondary DFW-Asia routes (Im speaking mainly of PVG but also HKG as well)?
3) The ME3 are unleashing an insane amount of capacity at DFW in a very short amount of time. Is this sustainable?

1. No

2. No

3. No


You know that. So does everyone else on this board. What DFW has going for it is the huge AA hub which isn't going anywhere! Beyond that it really is in a bad connection point for Asia for most of the country. DFW has little O and D to Asia.

What is sustainable (for as long as AA says it is) is using connections to fill the flight. The issue with that: backtracking and cost per passenger vs fare for AA. Customers will back track if the price is right. NE (where the Asians are)-DFW-Asia? Better be cheap! You'll fill it. The question being is it worth AAs while to fly someone from LGA-DFW-HKG for a cut rate fare vs the nonstop options out of JFK and EWR or the optimized connections via DTW, YYZ or ORD. When do you fly someone at a loss? And how big of a loss to fill the Asian flight with butts.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 6):
If NW can make a Pacific gateway out of DTW, I'm pretty sure the new AA can make a gateway out of DFW.

No comparison. Both depend on connectors. DTW is in the right spot for Asian connections from the heavily Asian and most populated part of the country (East Coast). DFW is not.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 10:13 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 28):
DFW has little O and D to Asia.
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 28):
Customers will back track if the price is right. NE (where the Asians are)-DFW-Asia?

I dont think you know much about this market.....

Relating to the ME3, DFW-India is a very large market. Rearding East Asia, DFW-Korea is also a large market. Its not as large as NYC, but thats not the point. DFW-Korea/India is larger than BOS or PHL to the same places. Also, DFW has roughly the same sized Asian population as Boston by CSA and its about 25% larger than Philly. Its smaller than NYC or DC of course.

But this isnt the point. I would love for you to show me a place where anyone is arguing that DFW-Asia is going to resemble anything on the West Coast, ORD, or NYC.

Admitiedly points 1 and 3 that I made are debatable. How on earth you disagree with point two is beyond me. Of course the 787 and the reconfigured 777 is going to help DFW-Asia. Its obvious.

[Edited 2014-07-29 15:14:24]
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
bchandl
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:15 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):
The 772 doesnt have the legs.
Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):

Forgot they are not LR's

bchandl
 
commavia
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:22 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
Serious about LAX as a hub versus committed to LAX as a TPAC gateway aren't 1-to-1.

Fair.

Quoting Prost (Reply 17):
How closely aligned are AA and CX?

No legalized collusion, but they do codeshare extensively, and the two exchange tons of passengers between them in the U.S. (especially LAX) and now in HKG.

Quoting Prost (Reply 17):
I always felt that AA could do their best by funneling passengers to TYO and HKG to join up with oneworld partners JL and CX to meet their customers needs.

That's pretty much been the strategy up until recently.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 20):
but even that has some issues as JL tries to find its footing on stage again which does not always align with AA interest.

Although - for all the doom and gloom a few months ago in another thread, it looks as though the "interest" between the two is even further converging rapidly, and JAL is now getting religion about building a banked, well-timed 2-way hub at NRT perfectly positioned for connections to/from AA's flights to ORD, DFW and LAX.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 27):
As part of his Q&A with the moderator NBCs Peter Greenberg he mentioned he just spent this morning talking about how AA could build LAX into "our Asian gateway".

In other comments however he stated however AA was not going to be hasty in moving the chess pieces around globe, and the primary taks and focus for everyone was the merger and integration would take till late 2015.

No news there.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 27):
such as "getting rid of the MD-80 as quickly as we can" (which drew an applause)

 
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 27):
Oh p.s. - for anyone worried about AAdvantage changes (revenue model ala DL/UA) he said while "we may chose to do that", any changes to FF'er program structure before full integration would add needless complication and be "foolish".

  
 
OP3000
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:17 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 27):
As part of his Q&A with the moderator NBCs Peter Greenberg he mentioned he just spent this morning talking about how AA could build LAX into "our Asian gateway".

That is one of the first route planning comments he made right after the merger. Even if that were not the case DFW being considered an "Asian Gateway" would be just as far fetched as IAH or ATL being deemed as such. The location and O&D simply does not make sense for an Asian gateway versus a plethora of better options (no matter how far inside the toilet some folks at those headquarters have their heads inserted). LAX is going to be tough because of the competition, but the timing is probably the best in a long time with DL now hell bent on making SEA work as their Asian gateway, a relatively unagressive UA presently, continued economic growth and more consumer power in Asia, and the new 787s and 77Ws coming online.
 
bchandl
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:12 am

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 32):

LAX is AA's best hope for a true west coast Asian gateway. SFO, SEA are claimed already.

Let's go PHX!

 

bchandl
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:54 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 29):
I dont think you know much about this market.....

I live in Queens. And I fly planes to Texas 3 times a week. I know an Asian neighborhood when I see one. You don't have one in Dallas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...large_Chinese_American_populations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ficant_Korean_American_populations


These flights are filled with connectors. They have to be. The O and D isn't there. Dallas is just bad geography for an Asian gateway.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
2) Will the growing AA fleet help with the more secondary DFW-Asia routes (Im speaking mainly of PVG but also HKG as well)?

That's Point 2. And again I say NO.


What you are seeing here is a large airline combining with a smaller airline to form the largest airline in the world. And despite all of that, THEY STILL HAVE NO ANSWER TO THE ASIA PROBLEM. And that's a shame...because if you look at the busiest airports in the world thread Busiest Airports In The World, April 2014 (by Burchfiel Jul 29 2014 in Civil Aviation)

You see that Asia is where it's at!
 
YouGeeElWhy
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:32 am

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 34):
The O and D isn't there.

ICN market is all O&D. Samsung's DFW presence is what drives it.
 
texdravid
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:40 am

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 34):
I live in Queens. And I fly planes to Texas 3 times a week. I know an Asian neighborhood when I see one. You don't have one in Dallas.

Then you have not seen much of Dallas then. North Dallas/Farmers Branch just south of 635 and east of 35 is a Korean stronghold. So many businesses, restaurants, shops,
legal services, etc. Great sushi at Korea House!

While we don't have an "official" Korea town or "official" Chinatown, we have pockets throughout the metroplex of Asians of all stripes and backgrounds.
Frisco is full of Indian engineers and doctors. Irving has the DFW Hindu temple and plenty of Indians, as does Las Colinas.

Its just that Asians here are well-integrated into the communities and are not shunted into racial/ethnic specific enclaves.

Furthermore, like others have stated, the O&D to Asia is substantial, and homegrown. Please come by the beautiful Terminal D in the late mornings and afternoons.
From KE and EK in the mornings to LH and BA in the afternoon, the throng of Asian individuals is amazing. Lol, I am there frequently dropping off
friends and relatives all the time.
Tort reform now. Throw lawyers in jail later.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:40 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
In my opinion, the best thing to do is to have one 77W on DFW-NRT and one 77W on DFW-HKG to even out the traffic flows.

I think you're right on the NRT part, but I think an A350 would be the best equipment on DFW-HKG, if they give it a larger premium cabin.
When wasn't America great?


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kenanc
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:31 am

Quoting texdravid (Reply 36):
Then you have not seen much of Dallas then. North Dallas/Farmers Branch just south of 635 and east of 35 is a Korean stronghold. So many businesses, restaurants, shops,
legal services, etc. Great sushi at Korea House!

While we don't have an "official" Korea town or "official" Chinatown, we have pockets throughout the metroplex of Asians of all stripes and backgrounds.
Frisco is full of Indian engineers and doctors. Irving has the DFW Hindu temple and plenty of Indians, as does Las Colinas.

Its just that Asians here are well-integrated into the communities and are not shunted into racial/ethnic specific enclaves.

Furthermore, like others have stated, the O&D to Asia is substantial, and homegrown. Please come by the beautiful Terminal D in the late mornings and afternoons.
From KE and EK in the mornings to LH and BA in the afternoon, the throng of Asian individuals is amazing. Lol, I am there frequently dropping off
friends and relatives all the time.

You just spoke for me. 
 
commavia
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:10 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 34):
I live in Queens. And I fly planes to Texas 3 times a week. I know an Asian neighborhood when I see one. You don't have one in Dallas.

You're right. Dallas doesn't "have one" Asian neighborhood. It has several. Big ones.

I'm not disputing that at least some of these DFW-Asia flights are being filled largely with connections - DFW is the world's busiest largest airline hub, after all - but respectfully, the statement you made so definitively above is simply not reflective of reality here in the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:18 pm

Then how come the numbers on wiki don't jive with that gentlemen?

Look at the numbers. One neighborhood, many neighborhoods, dense, spread out...the numbers aren't there compared to ny dc sf la

Secondly the geography isn't there.


End of my point.
 
bchandl
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:00 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 39):
You're right. Dallas doesn't "have one" Asian neighborhood. It has several. Big ones.

I'm not disputing that at least some of these DFW-Asia flights are being filled largely with connections - DFW is the world's busiest largest airline hub, after all - but respectfully, the statement you made so definitively above is simply not reflective of reality here in the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area.

It's not fair to compare any other community to the ethnic communities of NYC. NYC is 20m people, and one of the most ethnically diverse metros in the world.

Nothing, especially in America, is going to compare to the size of the various ethnic communities in NYC. Doesn't mean they don't exist elsewhere.

bchandl
 
commavia
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:19 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 40):
the numbers aren't there compared to ny dc sf la

Ah - that's different than what you first said. Saying that DFW doesn't have the Asian ethnic communities of markets like New York, et al is not the same as saying "you don't have ... an Asian neighborhood ... in Dallas." Does Dallas have "an Asian neighborhood" the equal - in population - of New York? Of course not. But again, as was already said, neither does virtually any other city in the U.S., and for that matter the world outside of Asia. But the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex absolutely does have a very large Asian population - not just East Asian (especially Korean), but also South Asian (especially Indian and Pakistani).

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 40):
Secondly the geography isn't there.

I've heard people make this point with respect to DFW, and I personally don't really find it convincing.

It begs the question - the "geography isn't there" at DFW compared to what? There is absolutely no question that for the two largest concentrations of ethnically Asian people in the U.S. - the west coast and northeast - DFW's location is suboptimal. Completely agree - that's not even debatable. But that being said, there are still millions and millions of people that are either from Asia, have family from Asia, and/or - perhaps most importantly - do business in Asia, who are not located in California, Washington or New York.

Indeed, I suspect that in the last few decades the area of the U.S. where trade linkages with the Pacific Rim have likely been growing the fastest - admittedly off a lower base - is the south. Whether manufacturing or technology, there are huge and growing commercial relationships between East Asia and Texas, Georgia, even Kentucky, Tennessee, etc. - and for these traffic flows, DFW is ideally situated. And that doesn't even capture connectivity between East Asia and Latin America - particularly South America - for which DFW is literally about as well-positioned as any connecting point could possibly be.

In a way, this whole issue of DFW's alleged inferiority compared to other U.S.-Asia gateways reminds me of the seminal question - discussed at length here - about the relative pros and cons of the traditional AA/United strategy of big hubs in big (but competitive) cities versus Delta's strategy of big hubs in smaller cities (but that it can handily dominate). In this case, it's true that DFW will absolutely never - never - match the volume of demand or connectivity that can be generated by LAX, SFO, NYC or even CHI. But if DFW can capture much of the traffic going to many of the smaller markets in the eastern and southern U.S. for which it is well-situated geographically, and it can do so with minimal competition from other hubs, isn't that good enough?

Nobody is seriously suggesting that DFW will ever rival LAX as an Asian gateway. But to the entire point of this thread - given its geography, local market and booming economy, could DFW "plausibly" ultimately support 5-6 daily widebodies to East Asia? Yeah, I think it can.

Quoting bchandl (Reply 41):
It's not fair to compare any other community to the ethnic communities of NYC. NYC is 20m people, and one of the most ethnically diverse metros in the world.

  

[Edited 2014-07-30 06:22:33]
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:35 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 42):

That's probably the most sensible thing said on this thread. And they have their five flights now. We will see shortly if it's sustainable
 
uberflieger
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:40 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Definition of plausible: believable and appearing likely to be true, usually in the absence of proof
DFW as a gateway to Asia is more than plausible, it's real. The recent expansion only caught up with demand, some of it because of healthy O&D and business ties, a lot of it because of convenient connections at American's Mega hub, one of the largest hubs in the world. It's only a matter of time and American will fly DFW-PEK. NGO & KIX are plausible  
 
superjeff
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:56 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 34):
I live in Queens. And I fly planes to Texas 3 times a week. I know an Asian neighborhood when I see one. You don't have one in Dallas.

No single Asian neighborhood in DFW, but, in fact there is a population which is pretty much spread through the area. Large Chinese population in Plano, Richardson (North Dallas) to the extent that the police departments have Chinese speaking officers available), Indians in Plano, and also throughout the area, Koreans in Northwest Dallas. . . . This is a pretty diverse area and pretty homogenized.
 
texdravid
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:01 pm

Some people are NYC-centric and Northeast centric and cannot imagine that other cities west of the Hudson are actually cultural/economic centers that have vibrant and growing populations.

I am surprised that the term "flyover country" has not been used yet in a perjorative/insulting manner.

The fact is that Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, et al are growing sunbelt cities that have nothing but good times and growth ahead of them.

DFW has O&D. It has volume. No amount of east-coast superiority is going to change that.
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CXGabriel
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:08 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 24):
Well, Toyota is moving their N. American headquarters to DFW

Maybe with 788 with code sharing with JL.

Quoting Prost (Reply 17):
How closely aligned are AA and CX?

Fairly close. CX code is on AA's DFW-HKG route (CX 7680/ CX 7681), as well as many AA domestic routes connecting to CX gateway at LAX, SFO, JFK, ORD, and EWR. AA code is on many CX regional flights from HKG to SIN, BKK, HND, NRT, CGK, SGN, and DPS, as well as CX's USA routes.

I've flew the DFW-HKG route recently, and the flights were quite full. There're demand for flights to Asia, and DFW (as a hub) catch many folks from the southeast, Texas, and the plain like OK, KS, etc. Although CA has a daily flight to PEK from IAH, the fact that flying through China always has a risk of being delayed (see recently with their military exercise that caused chaos at Chinese airports and air traffic). I can see Houston to HKG/Asia traffic can be won by AA despite it's a UA's hub. I think DFW-HKG can be sustained, especially since CX is code shariing that flight.
 
Thomaas
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:37 pm

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 44):
The recent expansion only caught up with demand, some of it because of healthy O&D and business ties

The O&D alone would maybe support one or two weekly flights to each of those cities, let alone daily flights on wide-bodies. The only reason AA flies to Asia from DFW is that it doesn't have strong hubs where a pacific gateway makes sense. They can't make the ORD flights work because UA is much stronger in both Chicago and Asia while LAX is very competitive and does't have the feed to make flights work.

Quoting commavia (Reply 42):
But if DFW can capture much of the traffic going to many of the smaller markets in the eastern and southern U.S. for which it is well-situated geographically, and it can do so with minimal competition from other hubs, isn't that good enough?

How much traffic do you think southern markets generate to Asia ? Markets like BNA-PVG, LIT-HKG and BHM-ICN hardly have any traffic between them, I'd be surprised if they even had 5PEW each. Remember that for the so-called "smaller markets in the eastern and southern US", AA's flight will be competing against DTW, ORD and in some cases LAX and SFO connections. Only healthy O&D can sustain such long flights.

AA will probably suck it up and continue the Dallas flying, after all they've been bleeding money on the ORD flights for almost a decade now, they simply don't have much choice if they want to build the market that they long neglected.
 
Thomaas
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RE: DFW As An Asian Gateway - Is It Plausible?

Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:40 pm

Quoting CXGabriel (Reply 47):
I can see Houston to HKG/Asia traffic can be won by AA despite it's a UA's hub.

Over connecting with UA at NRT, LAX, SFO or ORD ? I doubt the high-value flyers (eg. Mileage Plus members for UA) would even look at flying AA through DFW. If anything AA might fill in a few economy seats from IAH but that's about it.

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