Ok, I was hesitant to even respond, but here I go.......
ASFlyer, your opinion and observation has no factual basis based on
DL's current business plan.
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): I hope that DTW does, indeed, become a larger part of the DL network. |
DTW already is a huge part of
DL's network it is its' 2nd/3rd largest hub (depending on what metric you choose to support your viewpoint). There at the moment is very little organic growth from
DTW, only thing will be incremental domestic capacity which will be dependent on the regional/national/global socioeconomic trends.
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): I'm just stating an opinion, which there are no shortage of at Airliners.net. |
True, however you are in the extreme minority on this one. In A.net land, one can say whatever they want and choose to ignore whatever they choose.
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): I'll admit, I don't have all the facts and figures in front of me, which is why I asked if someone else did. |
Many people are telling you otherwise.
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): From my perspective it seems like, since the NW/DL integration, DTW has lost service consistently YOY. |
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): 2013 had the lowest number of flights since 2004, about 100 daily flights less. |
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): Perhaps there are larger planes on some routes now that have mitigated the number of total seats lost - CR9's instead of CRJ's, CR7's instead of CRJ's and CRJ's instead of SF3's mostly - but the total number of daily flights is down significantly from 10 years ago. |
First of all, you cannot use simplistic trends over a 10 year period without any context to draw conclusions about the future. 10 years is an extremely long time in this rapidly changing industry. A lot has changed in the past 10 years, let alone the past 5.
History lesson:
In the fat, dumb, happy, go-go 90's, fuel was cheap, RJs barely existed and there were many more players in the industry. 9/11 happened and susequent economic downturn happened. Airlines were losing money hand over fist.
NW started to add capacity back into the network in 2003/2004 as the economy started to recover, but they were still losing a ton of money. They filled bankruptcy in August 2005, and they shed a bunch of excess capacity and aircraft. In 2007-2008,
NW parked a significant portion of the DC-9-30 fleet, and also brought on the CR9s and E75s as they were exiting bankruptcy. Then in 2008 they announced the merger with
DL. There was also the huge run-up in fuel price in 2008. 2008 was the last year that
DTW was scheduled independently by
NW. Merger related changes started in 2009. The remaining DC-9-30s/40s were retired, then the Saab 340s were retired and
DL exited some EAS markets. There was the economic downturn and auto industry collaspse which disproportionally hit
DTW hard.
So many significant events that have to be put into context than can help explain each and every data point change.
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): And it's been on a consistent downward trajectory since the integration. Perhaps it has to do with the economy, I don't know. |
2004-2008 was
NW - bankruptcy, fleet realignment, and shedding unprofitable capacity
2009-2014 was been
DL - and the post-merger network
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): And maybe DTW will be a key part of DL's network going forward. |
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): SEA already has more flights to Asia than DTW does, and it seems as though DL is moving forward in making SEA their North American Asian gateway. I don't think DTW will lost a lot of Asia service, but it's entirely possible that they won't maintain their existing roster if SEA continues to grow. |
DTW -
NRT,
NGO,
ICN,
PVG,
PEK
SEA-
NRT,
HND,
ICN,
PVG,
PEK,
HKG
SEA is getting capacity from
NRT and building a west coast Asian gateway
DTW is the gateway to Asia for the core of their network (Eastern and Central timezone)
SEA cannot replicate the traffic flows to/from Asia that
DTW handles.
SEA has the benefit of being able to use 76W and A330 equipment deeper into Asia. I actually believe since
DTW will have 4 daily 744s to Asia this fall, they will have more seats to Asia than
SEA (or be very close, I'm too lazy to do the math)
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): DTW has one flight to South America and two flights to non beach destinations in Mexico (MTY and MEX). |
So? What do other hubs have like
ORD,
MSP,
EWR,
PHL????
What other non-beach market destinations are they missing??
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): DTW has one flight to South America and two flights to non beach destinations in Mexico (MTY and MEX). At least two of those are flights geared towards very specific niche markets (GRU and MTY) - both aimed at the large auto manufacturing business in each city. |
DTW connects the manufacturing heartland of the US (the Midwest) to the manufacturing heartland of Mexico and South America
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): , at it's peak, had a larger European network than DTW does currently. |
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): Are there differences between CVG and DTW? Absolutely. But DL had a significant investment in CVG and didn't hesitate on pulling the plug, despite their continued monetary commitment there. CVG is a shadow of it's former self. |
CVG was based on a disproporate amount of connecting traffic, with a smaller local market, primarily using RJs - that were much more economical when fuel was a fraction of the cost and the aircraft has less intensive maintenance, and in an environment with an entirely different revenue and cost environment.
With the run-up in fuel on the cost side. Socio-economic changes in the regional/national/global economy, shrinking middle class, changes in the competitive landscape; a huge amount of traffic vaporized on the demand side and/or became unprofitable for the airlines to attempt to capture.
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): I fail to see where DTW (or any other city in their hub network, save for ATL) is 100% safe. Things change on a dime in this industry and DL has not been shy about changing their business model as needed to maximize their investments. |
Hyperpole? I mean nothing is set in stone or 100% sure but I wouldn't go around talking like it could happen. It makes you sound silly.
Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 94): But DTW has already been significantly downsized, in terms of daily flights, by about 20% over the last 10 years. That, to me, seems significant. |
No one is debating that, but it is meaningless when making a forward looking statement.