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EK413
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Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 2:19 am

Hi all,

The previous discussion had 200+ responses and was slow to load for some users so Part 9 has been created to continue the conversation.

The previous thread can be found here: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 8 (by EK413 Jul 23 2014 in Civil Aviation)

We ask that you please be respectful to the victim's families. In addition do NOT post pictures of the crash site if they contain victims & ask that you link to them with a warning.

Additionally, this is a charged environment so please refrain from political, polarizing or likely flame-baiting comments in your replies. If you desire to discuss politics, etc. you can post in the Non-Aviation forum as there is at least one thread in that forum that is discussing this matter: Political Ramifications Of MH17 (by RomeoBravo Jul 17 2014 in Non Aviation)

For the benefit of the discussion, we again ask that non-aviation discussion in this thread be directed to the appropriate thread the Non-Aviation forum and no longer continue in the Civil Aviation thread.

EK413
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NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:02 am

Plenty of videos being published. These two illustrate some of the difficulties being faced by the Dutch/Australian force - as I suspected, they are actually having to search overgrown areas on foot, strung out in long lines:-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-flight-MH17-plane-crash-site.html

http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-tea...-shadow-of-war-20140803-zzw5r.html
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:59 am

Do I remember correctly that a preliminary report will be out on August 1st? Or is it still pending?


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:23 am

In the meantime it appears that the Russian BBC Service produced a video report on the 23rd of July, however, the BBC may have censored its own production; or maybe only for its Western audience. One wonders why ...

Here are quotes from the video:
Highlights of Witness statements (see complete transcript below):
• Eyewitness #1: There were two explosions in the air. And this is how it broke apart. And [the fragments] blew apart like this, to the sides. And when …

• Eyewitness #2: … And there was another aircraft, a military one, beside it. Everybody saw it.

• Eyewitness #1: Yes, yes. It was flying under it, because it could be seen. It was proceeding underneath, below the civilian one.

• Eyewitness #3: There were sounds of an explosion. But they were in the sky. They came from the sky. Then this plane made a sharp turn-around like this. It changed its trajectory and headed in that direction [indicating the direction with her hands].
End of quote.

The video with English subtitles can be found here:
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/so...ca/sociopol_globalization_eu18.htm

The same video in Russian only is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUvK5m2vxro

A full (English) transcript is also on the bibliotecapleyades.net website.

There may yet be a lot more to the story ....
 
Scipio
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 2:05 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 3):
One wonders why ...

Perhaps because the witnesses (and maybe also the reporter) were deemed unreliable?

By all accounts, it was overcast in the area at the moment MH17 was shot down. Because of the clouds, the rebels could not even see what they were shooting at.

And these witnesses saw not only MH17, but also a much smaller fighter jet?

The footage of the crash clearly shows the overcast sky:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyxIiW9m2mM

[Edited 2014-08-03 07:16:02]
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 2:22 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 4):
And these witnesses saw not only MH17, but also a much smaller fighter jet?

I saw the same sort of stuff, Scipio. Does make one wonder whether, at the least, MH17 was hit by more than one missile? Possibly including some air-launched ones?

Otherwise I personally (as someone who spent some time working with anti-aircraft artillery) can't readily work out how MH17 could have come down in so MANY pieces, spread over so MANY square miles?

[Edited 2014-08-03 07:25:50]
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 2:54 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 5):
Otherwise I personally (as someone who spent some time working with anti-aircraft artillery) can't readily work out how MH17 could have come down in so MANY pieces, spread over so MANY square miles?

One hit really suffices to do this sort of damage. Aircraft skin cannot withstand aerodynamic forces at all - it's just made for keeping the air inside of the plane. If you create a hole in an airplane, the airstream will widen the hole and rip away whole sections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Al...a_Airlines_Flight_243_fuselage.png is an example that shows how one little crack/air blowout can rip away large swaths of the fuselage.

And AFAIK, every airliner is made to withstand 1.5 times the maximal physical forces that are expected in the full lifetime of said airliner. This means, also the wing spars and other load-bearing parts of the plane are not made to survive a missile which peppers the fuselage with fragments, and the ensuing, vastly different aerodynamic forces acting on the airplane.


David

[Edited 2014-08-03 07:56:59]
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 3:18 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 6):
an example that shows how one little crack/air blowout can rip away large swaths of the fuselage.

Agree, flyingturtle, that's what I would expect.

But the only evidence we have is a photograph of the 'exit wound' of a missile, which appears to have hit the starboard side of the cockpit and exited on the port side. Only shrapnel damage, and probably a 'warhead exit,' visible on the photograph?

Yet we are supposed to believe that the same 'hit' somehow ALSO broke the whole fuselage into half-a-dozen pieces, tore off wings, etc..?

Can't help feeling that there could very possibly be 'more to it' than that?

I suppose that I might as well add that, if the cockpit 'shot' was caused by a (large) ground-launched missile, it would have done a helluva lot more damage that appears in the photograph? Those things were just coming into service when I got out of the army, but from all accounts at the time, they'd have done a LOT more damage than that . Like blowing the whole darned nose off?

Just 'speculating' that something just doesn't add up?
 
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PW100
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 5):
Otherwise I personally (as someone who spent some time working with anti-aircraft artillery) can't readily work out how MH17 could have come down in so MANY pieces, spread over so MANY square miles?

I guess the dynamics of a 60m span 250 ton commercial airliner are somewhat different to your typical anti-aircraft artillery targets.

So the answer to your query is quite simple: inflight break up.
Not into thousands of pieces, but into several relatively large pieces. Each large piece will have it's own aerodynamic characteristics and trajectory. This is supported by eyewitness statements like: "bodies falling out of the air", "bodies rained down from clouds"). I.e. the fuselage opened up in flight and at high altitude. Possibly at several fuselage locations.

On their way down, each large piece will probably loose smaller parts, leaving a trail of debris for each relatively large piece until it hits the ground.
The missile might be directly that controlled flight can no longer be maintained. responsible for a first large piece breaking off. You know, these things are kind of designed to break-up much smaller, and much more stronger planes . . . It might also be an indirect consequence, by damaging so many systems and aerodynamic airframe shape that the airframe leaves controlled flight.
Once one piece fell off, the aircraft becomes uncontrollable. leaving controlled flight, and at 900+ km/u, it will break apart and fall down in large pieces.

Rgds,
PW100
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petertenthije
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:06 pm

First results, unofficial, from the CVR: pilots never mentioned anything odd.

Quote:
Excerpt from http://www.nst.com.my/node/19598

A source close to the international investigation told the New Sunday Times that the CVR downloaded by the United Kingdom’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch had picked up the communications between the Malaysia Airlines’ pilot and an unspecified personnel with an air traffic controller (ATC).

“So far, from what the team has heard, there was nothing unusual. The last voice heard was not the pilot’s. No, there was no indication that the pilots saw or sensed anything off,” the source said without elaborating further to protect the investigations.
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pvjin
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:48 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 7):
I suppose that I might as well add that, if the cockpit 'shot' was caused by a (large) ground-launched missile, it would have done a helluva lot more damage that appears in the photograph? Those things were just coming into service when I got out of the army, but from all accounts at the time, they'd have done a LOT more damage than that . Like blowing the whole darned nose off?

Those things are designed to take down an airplane, it would be waste of money to make them cause any more damage than what's necessary to bring down your average fighter jet.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
awthompson
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:18 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 4):
The footage of the crash clearly shows the overcast sky:

In that video I don't see an overcast sky. Early in the clip the camera points upward momentarily where I can see a significant amount of blue sky through some broken medium and perhaps high cloud layers. I cannot see how the sky was directly overhead but it is possible that there were some areas of blue sky.

However, we know that people don't normally notice high altitude overflights and to the untrained eye they just look like dots with white trails. In warmer conditions, trails don't even form making it even harder to see airliners in the cruise. I would say that even if the sky had clear patches, it would be unlikely anyone saw 9M-MRD, and neither would they have seen another aircraft underneath it and also have identified it as a military aircraft. This might be doable at 2 to 5 thousand feet but not in the thirties without binoculars to assist with identification. Even that is not easy unless you are a trained/experienced plane spotter. In summary, these amateurs in the video either imagined they saw something, they saw other aircraft at lower level which were not related to MH17, or they were told to say what they said to confuse the truth.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:58 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 5):
Otherwise I personally (as someone who spent some time working with anti-aircraft artillery) can't readily work out how MH17 could have come down in so MANY pieces, spread over so MANY square miles?


Interesting point? Was it hit by something else too or something with more explosive power?

MH17 was traveling at cruise speed at FL330... How small of an area do you expect the debris to cover if it was just hit by one BUK / SAM? Pan Am 103 exploded at FL310 and some of the lighter debris traveled nearly 80 miles before reaching the ground. My supervisor was one of the investigators at that incident. I expect some MH17 debris to be found farther away...

[Edited 2014-08-03 15:04:38]
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
lazybones
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:28 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 12):
Pan Am 103 exploded at FL310 and some of the lighter debris traveled nearly 80 miles before reaching the ground

I was just about to mention Pam Am 103. The explosion (believed to be about 400g of plastic explosive) which took out the aircraft was only large enough to puncture the fuselage and cause some moderate structural damage. But when you have a highly stressed structure flying at highspeed, it doesn't take much to cause an in-flight breakup. Compare that to a BUK SA-11 warhead at 70,000g exploding in close proximity.

I have no doubt there was a single missile strike, my concern is we'll never get to the bottom of who's truly responsible.
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:38 am

Quoting lazybones (Reply 13):
my concern is we'll never get to the bottom of who's truly responsible.

As long as the Russian coverup continues, Putin is the one responsible.
 
alfa164
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 2:26 am

Quoting lazybones (Reply 13):
I have no doubt there was a single missile strike, my concern is we'll never get to the bottom of who's truly responsible.

I don't think there is any question who is responsible; the "separatists" even bragged about taking down an airplane on July 17th - until they discovered it was a civilian craft. There is no one to blame but Putin, his mercenaries and thugs.
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undertheradar
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:41 am

Quoting PW100 (Reply 8):

I agree with this... as the missile explodes just before contact with its target (MH17), the many kgs of varying sized shrapnel is 'peppered' into the target (seems to be the cockpit area)...once the fuselage gets 'compromised', this begins the sequence of events (explosive decompression and eventual mid air break up)...all of this is occurring to the forward moving 777 at 33,000 feet and travelling at 900km/h..I believe there may be some 'debris' even more widespread than the 'focus' areas, and may never be recovered.
It just makes sense (to me) that it would take 'longer' to 'destroy' a 777, as opposed to a military aircraft, which these missiles are used for to 'strike down'.... and on that note...IF the reports are correct of a (Ukrainian) fighter jet 'close by' MH17 at the time, MAYBE the missile was 'meant' to hit the fighter jet... BUT,as mentioned, people/villagers being able to 'witness' all this 33,000 feet in the sky above, makes me question the 'fighter jet scenario'.
All in all....there is much more to be 'revealed' ...if at all !!!
It's certainly doing my head in !!!
 
AR385
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:26 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 7):
But the only evidence we have is a photograph of the 'exit wound' of a missile, which appears to have hit the starboard side of the cockpit and exited on the port side. Only shrapnel damage, and probably a 'warhead exit,' visible on the photograph?

Yet we are supposed to believe that the same 'hit' somehow ALSO broke the whole fuselage into half-a-dozen pieces, tore off wings, etc..?
Quoting pvjin (Reply 10):
Those things are designed to take down an airplane, it would be waste of money to make them cause any more damage than what's necessary to bring down your average fighter jet.

They are designed to take down aircraft flyng at over 60,000 ft. and at supersonic speeds, a la B1B. So I have no doubt they can take down a 777.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 12):
Pan Am 103 exploded at FL310 and some of the lighter debris traveled nearly 80 miles before reaching the ground. My supervisor was one of the investigators at that incident. I expect some MH17 debris to be found farther away...
Quoting lazybones (Reply 13):
But when you have a highly stressed structure flying at highspeed, it doesn't take much to cause an in-flight breakup.

Pan Am 103 was unlucky in the sense of where the container with the suitcase was located. It was next to the skin of the aircraft. Some experts have said that if the location had been more to the center, maybe the damage could have been more tolerated by the pressure vessel rather than the immediate destruction that ensued.

I have a problem with the Ukranians and others calling this a terrorist act and the responsible parties "terrorists". If this catches on and someone officially important accepts this term, life insurance policies for many passengers are not going to be paid. I´d much rather call it an accident or a crime.
 
lazybones
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:06 am

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 15):
the "separatists" even bragged about taking down an airplane on July 17th - until they discovered it was a civilian craft. There is no one to blame but Putin

Yes, this much we know. But even still is not enough bring Putin to some kind of international court.I think its just going to go around in circles with no-one being held responsible.
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:42 am

Quoting awthompson (Reply 11):
However, we know that people don't normally notice high altitude overflights and to the untrained eye they just look like dots with white trails. In warmer conditions, trails don't even form making it even harder to see airliners in the cruise. I would say that even if the sky had clear patches, it would be unlikely anyone saw 9M-MRD, and neither would they have seen another aircraft underneath it and also have identified it as a military aircraft. This might be doable at 2 to 5 thousand feet but not in the thirties without binoculars to assist with identification. Even that is not easy unless you are a trained/experienced plane spotter. In summary, these amateurs in the video either imagined they saw something, they saw other aircraft at lower level which were not related to MH17, or they were told to say what they said to confuse the truth.

I do agree with your observations on the patchy blue sky; and I also believe that ordinary civilians are quite capable to watch and identify what kind of aircraft, civilian or military, is flying above them, even at that height.
We must not forget, those people are in a war zone. Anytime there is a plane, it could be their house or village that is on the list next to be bombed. So they would be very edgy and observant.

What is interesting too, though, is that the BBC journalist could not find signs or evidence in the area from where the Buk is supposed to have fired its missile. Even six days later there should still have been track marks and possibly even scorched ground.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:56 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 19):
I also believe that ordinary civilians are quite capable to watch and identify what kind of aircraft, civilian or military, is flying above them, even at that height.

These are some mighty impressive civilians. I watch planes fly over all the time, and the ones that are up at the 33,000ft mark are pretty much impossible to identify by the naked eye. Even with my binoculars it can be a challenge to figure out what type of plane it is. I'm simply amazed and impressed that these non-aviation civilians are so capable of planespotting from 7 miles away. Kudos to them!

-Dave
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hiflyer
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:18 am

Just thinking aloud...if I was responsible for a shoot down and needed to hide the evidence I would put the unit on a tractor trailer to get it the heck out of there as fast as possible and then wipe all traces of it from the ground and surrounding area as well as any personnel involved to give immediate deniability. Once that is confirmed done then let the counterintel folks start planting false videos and stories in the media and the net to further confuse the issue as long as possible til the public interest starts to lessen due to 'he said she said'. Problem with that is what is on the ground still...and what is being found ...they now cannot control. Those are not just regular folks walking in the fields ...or unskilled tv news folks looking to make a name for themselves.
 
mark787
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:00 am

YoungMans :

I live in the NYC area, more specifically in western Long Island with JFK being only a 10 minute drive and LGA 15 mins. Last week I had a rather fascinating view of the air traffic flying over my house. Living directly under the flight path of JFK's runway 22R, Low flying aircrafts are typical. While sitting outside with my kids, we watched a DL 757 fly overhead into JFK, flying at less than 2,000ft by this time. As the 757 flew by I took notice high above it another aircraft heading SE. I was able to identify it as a B6 A320, most likely turning to head over JFK before making a Canarsie approach. He had to be at least 10,000ft or higher. as this occurred, an even higher aircraft was flying above it all leaving a nice thick contrail behind it. The weather on this day was superb, with very bright blue skies, cloudless and low humidity. (all in contrast to the typical July weather that NYC would usually see, with Heat, humidity, and haze). By this time it was late afternoon with the sun now being blocked by my 2 story house. The sun however was illuminating every aircraft that flew by. To my amazement, I took almost a min and a half before I was able to identify it as a twin widebody! Notice I didn't say what type of twin it was!! Forget the airline, as that was an even harder task. 2 mins later, another contrail appeared over head, and this time, in under a minute, I was able to ID it as a 747, MAYBE BA, maybe. So, here we have what I like to call myself a veteran aviation enthusiast who regularly ID's airliners at distance, (airline included), I can ID many by sound, and yet I can't tell what that was flying overhead at 30,000 ft +. While I don't live in a war zone, I am confident enough to say that an aircraft flying over me is of much greater interest than those who live in eastern Ukraine. yet I can't tell you if the first aircraft was a 777, 767, or an A330. So I don't really buy the idea that eye witnesses in the area before MH017 was shot down were able to make an ID of another aircraft flying closely to it. with a mostly overcast sky at the time, even a break in the clouds would yield very little to the untrained eye.

It is also very likely that somewhere down the road, someone will discover more debris and sadly perhaps more victims that will be found away from the crash area. It would be plausible if one considers that the aircraft broke apart in flight, and as we learned with PanAm 103 and TWA 800, parts were found away from the wreckage field that likely fell away at the point of impact or catastrophic failure. And much like the other two crashes, As soon as the structure is compromised, and aerodynamics disrupted, the aircraft begins to disintegrate by the extreme forces that are now being placed onto the now non aerodynamic structure. Now in an uncontrolled free fall, parts begin to break off scattering debris on a much larger area in the sky and on the ground. The larger more intact parts will with the assistance of inertia, fall to the ground at a higher velocity while other lighter objects continue to fly longer, such as the debris captured falling from the sky after the impact of the centre section. So It isn't really a surprise to anyone to have debris scattered in large areas, nor does it necessarily tell you in detail of what occurred prior to the crash. I don't even question the idea that a single missile shot MH017 down. The damages on the photos clearly show the punctures caused by shrapnel from the only thing it could be at that altitude. I think by now we should all accept that it was shot down in a case of mistaken Identity. I don't think it falls in the term of a "terrorist" act. That word is used very loosely these days after 9/11, and not everything can be categorized by that one word. I strongly feel that It was shot down by the separatist, but not with intent to shoot down a civilian aircraft. It was nonetheless, still a war/ conflict zone. It should be classified as a very tragic accident that could have been avoided if not for the extreme oversight by many who I say "got caught with their hands in the cookie jar!" Sorry for the long post!
 
Heinkel
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:39 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 17):
I have a problem with the Ukranians and others calling this a terrorist act and the responsible parties "terrorists". If this catches on and someone officially important accepts this term, life insurance policies for many passengers are not going to be paid. I´d much rather call it an accident or a crime.

Well said.

If "terrorist" or "freedom fighter" depends on who wins. The victor writes the history.

I also wouldn't call it an "accident" or a "crime". It was a military act, done by combatants in a known civil war zone. Have a look into your life insurance contract if your insurance would pay in that case.

Flying over a (civil) war zone is never a good idea. I just flew over Iran on board TG 920 a few days ago. The good news was, that they avoided the ukrainian airspace.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:58 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 19):
Even six days later there should still have been track marks and possibly even scorched ground.

You'll find them about 3 threads back.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
mika
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:21 pm

Quoting mark787 (Reply 22):
So, here we have what I like to call myself a veteran aviation enthusiast who regularly ID's airliners at distance, (airline included), I can ID many by sound, and yet I can't tell what that was flying overhead at 30,000 ft +. While I don't live in a war zone, I am confident enough to say that an aircraft flying over me is of much greater interest than those who live in eastern Ukraine. yet I can't tell you if the first aircraft was a 777, 767, or an A330. So I don't really buy the idea that eye witnesses in the area before MH017 was shot down were able to make an ID of another aircraft flying closely to it. with a mostly overcast sky at the time, even a break in the clouds would yield very little to the untrained eye.

Very well put and i absolutely agree with you.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:19 pm

Quoting Heinkel (Reply 23):
It was a military act, done by combatants in a known civil war zone. Have a look into your life insurance contract if your insurance would pay in that case.

I am missing the "collateral damage" here. MH17 was not a combattant and if that what is going on in Eastern Ukraine is a "civil war" or a case of insurgents supported by a foreign power has yet to be determined.

I suggest you wait for the final report hw this will be classified, my guess is, it will not be called an "accident", rather "hostile acction" as was 9/11.
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Kaiarahi
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:47 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 26):
it will not be called an "accident"

"Accident" is defined in Annex 13 to the International Convention on Civil Aviation as:

"An occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft ... in which:
a) a person is fatally or seriously injured ... or
b) the aircraft sustains damage or structural failure ...".
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:19 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 19):
What is interesting too, though, is that the BBC journalist could not find signs or evidence in the area from where the Buk is supposed to have fired its missile. Even six days later there should still have been track marks and possibly even scorched ground.
Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 24):
You'll find them about 3 threads back.
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.com/201...t-location-pinpointed-of-mh17.html
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pylon101
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:34 am

I guess it will take quite a while to get preliminary report, judging from this Dutch letter to the U.N. Security Council.

http://news.yahoo.com/dutch-inform-u...lines-investigation-210200634.html
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Kaiarahi
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Tue Aug 05, 2014 4:33 pm

I don't see anything in there about the timing of the preliminary report.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:42 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 30):

Somehow I mixed up things... huh... I don't know...


David
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Scipio
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:17 pm

The [email protected] blogspot argues that MH17 was shot down by a Russian-crewed Buk controlled from across the border, and that the ones in the control center must have known they were shooting at a civilian airliner:

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.com/201...-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html
 
D L X
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:18 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 19):
I do agree with your observations on the patchy blue sky; and I also believe that ordinary civilians are quite capable to watch and identify what kind of aircraft, civilian or military, is flying above them, even at that height.
We must not forget, those people are in a war zone. Anytime there is a plane, it could be their house or village that is on the list next to be bombed. So they would be very edgy and observant.

A plane flying at 33,000 feet, absent contrails, is nearly imperceptible from the ground unless you already know it is there. And then there's the problem with the sound. Sound is what usually causes humans to look in a different direction to observe something. The problem with sound from far away is that the event to be observed has begun to progress. (That's the TWA800 problem too.) The witnesses say they heard explosions, and that the plane veered after the explosions. That's problematic for two reasons. 33,000 feet is about 6 miles away. It takes THIRTY seconds for sound to travel 6 miles. So if the witnesses heard the explosions, they heard it thirty seconds after the plane was hit and began to break up.

Second, 6 miles is a very long distance for sound to travel at sea level, let alone at altitude. Think about thunder and lightning, and how you can count seconds between the flash and the sound to determine how far away it occurred. Lightning obviously produces an extremely loud sound -- yet, have you ever saw lightning yet didn't hear the thunder until 30 seconds later? You almost certainly haven't, and the reason is because the sound would almost completely attenuate in the 6 miles it had to cross to reach you.

I can't find these witnesses credible at all. The science doesn't hold up.
 
petertenthije
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:06 pm

The search for human remains and personnal belongings will be stopped according to the Rutte, the Dutch prime minister. The area has become too dangerous. The mission will resume once it is safe.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/m...077/__Missie_Oekraine_stopt__.html
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:09 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 33):
I can't find these witnesses credible at all. The science doesn't hold up.

I could be wrong but I got the impression that it was a cloudy day and that no-one could have
seen all the way up to 33,000 feet due to the clouds?
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
802flyguy
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:09 pm

Netherlands PM halts search for remains, too dangerous...
(I would say what I think of Putin's thugs, airliners.net standards prevent from doing so)
http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/m...077/__Missie_Oekraine_stopt__.html

Google Translation:

Wed 06 Aug 2014 19:10
Mission aborted Ukraine

THE HAGUE -
The search for human remains and belongings of the victims of the disaster flight MH17 is provisionally suspended. Prime Minister Mark Rutte has announced that Wednesday. The reason is the deteriorating security situation in the area, which is still being fought by the Ukrainian army and separatists.
According Rutte is not useful and too risky for the experts from the repatriation team now to continue the mission. Rutte said he,, not want to expose. 'Our people to unnecessary risks
As soon as it is possible, the experts go back. ,, The ambition is to return to the crash site, '' says Rutte. ,, We now stop, but we do not stop. 'The relatives of the victims are informed of the decision, said Rutte.
small team
A small team will remain in the region behind. The locals love so the possibility remains and personal items that are found to transfer. Thursday starts from Kharkov aircraft with personal belongings of victims from Kharkov to the Netherlands.
According Rutte has the repatriation team,, good days 'had alternated with,, very bad days', in which access to the crash site was very limited. He said that it seems that in the first days after the disaster, more bodies have been recovered than initially thought. About two or three weeks he hopes is clear how many bodies of victims have now been geborge
 
D L X
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:28 pm

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 35):
I could be wrong but I got the impression that it was a cloudy day and that no-one could have
seen all the way up to 33,000 feet due to the clouds?

I think it would be difficult to identify a plane at 33,000 on a clear day.

And they certainly were not alerted to any planes by noise.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:22 am

Quoting 802flyguy (Reply 36):
I would say what I think of Putin's thugs, airliners.net standards prevent from doing so

That thug himself is 61. At least he is not younger - the sooner he dies or is taken out the better. So, how much time as dictator would he have left at most? 2 more years of this term + another 4yr term will take him to 67. Then another 4yr stint as PM would take him to 71. Then, 2 x 4 year stints as president again (if the cycle continues) would take him to 79... Can he continue to do 2 x 4yr terms as president and then be PM for a term before regaining the presidency for another 2 terms?

On a more positive, a very nice MH17 memorial service took place in Australia today  
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
alfa164
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:57 am

Quoting lazybones (Reply 18):
Yes, this much we know. But even still is not enough bring Putin to some kind of international court.I think its just going to go around in circles with no-one being held responsible.

I am afraid you are right about the courts; Putin will probably escape from any judicial punishment.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 38):
That thug himself is 61. At least he is not younger - the sooner he dies or is taken out the better. So, how much time as dictator would he have left at most? 2 more years of this term + another 4yr term will take him to 67. Then another 4yr stint as PM would take him to 71. Then, 2 x 4 year stints as president again (if the cycle continues) would take him to 79... Can he continue to do 2 x 4yr terms as president and then be PM for a term before regaining the presidency for another 2 terms?

Knowing Putin, he might decide to change the laws to eliminate the requirement that he step down after one more term. He would be the Idi Amin of Russia - "Dictator for Life".

Of course, we all know how well that worked out for Mssr. Amin...   
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:14 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 37):
I think it would be difficult to identify a plane at 33,000 on a clear day.
Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 35):
I could be wrong but I got the impression that it was a cloudy day and that no-one could have seen all the way up to 33,000 feet due to the clouds?

I have to disagree with both of you.
My place is under several north bound flight paths, particularly BNE Brisbane - TSV Townsville and BNE Brisbane - CNS Cairns.
Using Plane Finder, on a clear day, I can spot every aircraft overflying this area, regardless of height. Some have been as high 38,000 and others as low as 30,000. Vice versa, I can spot an aircraft, go to the computer and then make an identification on Plane Finder.
Planes can be tracked with 5/8 and even 6/8 cloud cover. In fact, it is easier to spot an aircraft, at that height, if there are a few clouds about; they provide a relative stable reference point against which movement is more noticeable.
Edit: If they happen to have a contrail, you can't miss them.
Interesting too, contrails are less in winter than they are in the summer months.
Goes against intuition ....
End of edit.

Just a couple of hours ago I watched an eagle way up high, just a little dot in the sky. Thinking that I should also be able to spot aircraft, if there are any, I had a good look; yep, two of them, no more than a half a dozen plane-lengths apart, ten at the most. They were right above Mount Colosseum (Queensland). Mind you, the distance between them grew bigger as they flew along; and, as one should hope, they were of course at different flight levels.
See the details of those two flights below.

It goes to show that anyone living in a war zone, with the threat of being bombed, will have no problems making out aircraft the size of an airliner; whether they are at 30,000 feet or even at 35,000 and more.

One must, of course, have a rough idea where to expect aircraft. It wouldn't be much good to pull up in the middle of Australia with the intent to spot aircraft. More than likely one wouldn't see any; you die of thirst first.

7. August, 2014, at10:16 h (local), over Mount Colosseum
Airbus A-320 Last updated 16 seconds ago
Flight No. JQ830
Callsign JST830
Tail VH-VFN
BNE Brisbane PPP Prosserpine422 miles556 miles
Altitude 37,975ft
Speed 424kts
Heading 324°
Estimated 10:47
Scheduled 10:45
Squawk 4560

Boeing 717-200 Last updated 19 seconds ago
Flight No. QJE1762
Callsign QJE1762
Tail VH-NXK
N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Altitude 30,625ft
Speed 352kts
Heading 322°
Estimated N/A
Scheduled N/A
Squawk 4543

The details of these two flights were copied off Plane Finder.

It was interesting to watch how the sun reflected first off one aircraft (presumably from the windows), for just a second or so, and moments later the same reflection came off the other aircraft.

Interesting too the relative size of the aircraft and the eagle.
Both aircraft appeared to be at least two to three times bigger than the eagle, at that height.

In summary ....
I have no hesitation to believe that civilians may have seen MH-17, either just moments before or while it crashed.
Nor is there any reason to doubt the BBC news clip, I reckon.

[Edited 2014-08-06 20:27:13]
 
D L X
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:59 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
Using Plane Finder, on a clear day, I can spot every aircraft overflying this area, regardless of height

Yeah, that's the problem. You used a tool that told you where the planes were, and when they were flying over.

GO outside on a regular old afternoon (even better if you can pick one with a slightly overcast sky) and spot the planes at cruise without contrails. You'll find that without Plane Finder or other such tool, you will be hard pressed to spot ANY planes, let alone identify a specific one.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
It goes to show that anyone living in a war zone, with the threat of being bombed, will have no problems making out aircraft the size of an airliner; whether they are at 30,000 feet or even at 35,000 and more.

They wouldn't even know to look.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
One must, of course, have a rough idea where to expect aircraft.

That's pretty much my point. Yes, you can find a plane if you're expecting it. No, you cannot find it if you are not.
 
AR385
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:31 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 37):
I think it would be difficult to identify a plane at 33,000 on a clear day.

I wouldn´t put it past many a.net members to be able to do it. I know I can. But your average person? No way.
 
4holer
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:38 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
I have to disagree with both of you.

Of course you do.
I live just south of PHX. Today just before I left work, I checked FR24 and saw that there was a Kalitta B742 crossing the California/AZ border which would fly near me in about 10-15 minutes. Being a plane geek I'd hoped to see a rare 742 flyby. Being PHX, not a cloud in the sky. I stood in a parking lot like an idiot looking for that jet flying just south of me. I couldn't see it and I was looking for it.
Without contrails, you need a very clear sky and an almost directly overhead pass to see, much less roughly identify (4 vs 2 engines) an airliner. And everyone here knows it. So do you.
Ghosts appear and fade away.....................
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:55 am

Quoting 4holer (Reply 43):
Without contrails, you need a very clear sky and an almost directly overhead pass to see, much less roughly identify (4 vs 2 engines) an airliner. And everyone here knows it. So do you.

Apparently you need to have cloud cover to see it better.  

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:42 am

The writer quotes the alledged traling of MH17 by a SU25 as an "established fact". Now, the SU25 has an operational height of 7000 meters without ordnance. With ordnance it is 5000 meters. Ordnance are for instance Missiles, can an air to air issile shot from 5000 meters travel a distance upwards to over 10000 meters and hit an engine.?

I have had an Argument with several users of German Forums which always led to the Explanation - yes . but the Export Version of the SU 25 has a ceiling of 12000 meters. Now, that "Export Version" that can reach 12KM is called SU39.

The Ukraine Air force does not have SU39 in their inventory.

So much to the inteesting eprspective.

.
.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:33 am

I thought it was particularly interesting to note that "...not a single eyewitness saw the very graphic, thick missile trace that would have been clearly visible had a Buk been used."

There was a US reporter (New York Times I think) that was in the region where the A/C came down, but they also did not report seeing or hearing a Buk launch. I would imagine the sound of Buk launching would be extremely loud, and would be heard and seen by many people. Yet there are no such reports, that I have seen.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:29 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 47):

In the same vein, when somebody came up with a credible witness for such a smoke trail and the noise generated by the SA-11 launch, the pro-Russian commenters would discount his or her story rather quickly...

Let's discuss the facts, and not the "what-ifs".


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
mandala499
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:11 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 41):
GO outside on a regular old afternoon (even better if you can pick one with a slightly overcast sky) and spot the planes at cruise without contrails.
Quoting 4holer (Reply 43):
Without contrails, you need a very clear sky and an almost directly overhead pass to see, much less roughly identify (4 vs 2 engines) an airliner. And everyone here knows it. So do you.

A few days ago, I sat on my front porch enjoying the late afternoon air, I looked to the sky and was not looking for airplanes. Then I saw a jet fly from on top away from me, gleaming reflections of sunlight. It wasn't hard to see. My eyes was at 40-50degrees elevation, and I noticed the aircraft at abut 70degrees elevation and about 20 degrees to the right of where I was looking.

I could see it was not a 747 or a 380, they look different at altitude anyway... and I could see it was a light coloured aircraft... but that's about it.

No contrails...

And sadly, that was a Malaysian A330-300, flying a route that used to be flown by the 777-200ER  
Quoting NAV30 (Reply 5):
Otherwise I personally (as someone who spent some time working with anti-aircraft artillery) can't readily work out how MH17 could have come down in so MANY pieces, spread over so MANY square miles?

As someone who has observed various accident reports, etc, it is normal for an inflight breakup of a "peeling" kind to end up like that.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 7):
But the only evidence we have is a photograph of the 'exit wound' of a missile, which appears to have hit the starboard side of the cockpit and exited on the port side. Only shrapnel damage, and probably a 'warhead exit,' visible on the photograph?

An exit would of an exploding missile would not have that size exit wound.

All the warhead needs to do is to structurally compromise the skin and some of the outer load-bearing structure for the aerodynamics to do the rest.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysia Airlines MH17 Crashes In Ukraine Part 9

Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:43 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 48):
In the same vein, when somebody came up with a credible witness for such a smoke trail and the noise generated by the SA-11 launch, the pro-Russian commenters would discount his or her story rather quickly...

The point is that if a Buk was used, there would have been people that saw and heard it, and they would have already talked about it. Then reporters might have followed those leads, and interviewed people. But that is not what happened. In other words, there have been no claims to discount, which is unusual.

Keep in mind, a Buk launch could be seen or heard in a 50km or greater radius of the launch. That is a very large area.

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