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LAXintl
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:43 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 52):
As for the investment - United is investing money in fixing up the gates it plans to keep because, frankly, it needs to be done.

Well if "need" is the criteria, then UA needs to sink massive amount into facilities like IAD, or even at major stations like HNL, GUM and others. But its not.

Instead it came up with this grand redo of its LAX facilities on its own and one for quite a hefty price tag. Clearly they see value and positive ROI in doing it.

Other things at LAX, UA they are talking to LAWA about a new maintenance hangar facility as well, all things that seem to point to long term commitment. (AA on the other hand continues to reduce LAX maintenance facility and staff ironically)
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
commavia
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:49 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 53):
DL ..... what gate growth ? They're mostly trapped at T5 with some common use of T6 (shared with UA and AS). DL is also the one who is deploying the most widebody out of the 3 legacies, so it's not like they have much room for up-gauging either.

Go back and read what I actually wrote. As I said - AA and Delta are "pour[ing] out of the gate space they already have." As you rightly point out, Delta is rapidly approaching the limitations of its present gate space at LAX, which is why I've heard that they have recently resorted to busing at peak times.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 54):
Well if "need" is the criteria, then UA needs to sink massive amount into facilities like IAD

No arguments here. As I've said repeatedly, my personal opinion as a fairly recent United longhaul premium flyer out of IAD is that it is probably the single worst airport terminal experience in the U.S. today.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 54):
But its not.

Well I think that in and of itself is telling about the economics of these hubs, and United's financial position.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 54):
Instead it came up with this grand redo of its LAX facilities on its own and one for quite a hefty price tag. Clearly they see value and positive ROI in doing it.

Yeah. You can see "value and positive ROI" in making an investment without anticipating dramatic growth. United may well be justifying the investment not as a basis for future growth, but rather just for preserving what they currently have. Again - United's LAX terminals need the work, and it may well be that United concluded (correctly, in my view) that the investment was required merely to run in place.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 54):
Other things at LAX, UA they are talking to LAWA about a new maintenance hangar facility as well, all things that seem to point to long term commitment.

Yet again - never said United would not be "committed" to LAX in some form going forward. The question is how competitive United will be as its lead continues to shrink, if not outright evaporate, in market after market relative to AA, Delta, Southwest, etc.
 
MAH4546
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:01 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 47):
(As comparison, current largest is the new Star lounge @ TBIT - 18,000sq ft.)

The OW lounge will be 40,000 square feet when done next year. Is it only less than half open?
a.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:07 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 56):
Yeah. You can see "value and positive ROI" in making an investment without anticipating dramatic growth. United may well be justifying the investment not as a basis for future growth, but rather just for preserving what they currently have. Again - United's LAX terminals need the work, and it may well be that United concluded (correctly, in my view) that the investment was required merely to run in place.

Not only lack of "dramatic growth", you're predicting massive declines of UA at LAX. I'd love to see how massive shrinkage of UA and yet get "positive ROI" out of a $400m renovation bill. Must be a 75 year breakeven horizon.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:24 pm

Personally I think UA would be smart to let DL, AA, VX and WN bash each other over the head in LAX, while UA grows more destinations from SFO. Adding markets like RDU, BDL etc. UA just serves hubs and focus cities from LAX and SFO grows.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:27 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 34):
I don't know how the new AA will be doing their scheduling in the future, but I know that at DL they significantly draw down their fluing in the slow periods (late fall to early spring, sans holiday periods) so as not to 'give the profits away in the winter months.'

AA believed in a steady schedule as a tool to get business travelers. I think the US team has thrown that out the window. I think they will adopt the DL philosophy. US did not do it so much because DCA had slot constraints, CLT peaked in Winter more or less, and PHL is constrained. PHX probably wasn't heavily seasonalized because of the pilot balancing act.

Quoting Prost (Reply 34):
As an aside, if UA does pull off this scheduling flexibility, and AA follows suit (if they aren't already) I imagine the 'deals' we usually expect in the winter will disappear as capacity is restricted.

That's already happening. I've noticed it big time on transatlantic in the Winter.

Quoting commavia (Reply 40):
Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 36):
There's no plausibility at this point to the theory for UA to virtually abandon LAX within a few years.

I disagree. I think the writing is on the wall for continued decline.

I think the issue is that UA is in the worst position in LAX coupled with the fact they are under the most financial pressure...rightly or wrongly. DL and AA can afford to lose money there because they make so much elsewhere. It's surprising that AA has moved into that category so fast, but they have. UA doesn't "mint" money anywhere it appears, so they don't have the ability to shoulder the losses.

One wonders if DL is to blame for EWR not being what would seem on its face to be a huge profit center, but isn't. I guess B6 is another factor.

Quoting diverdave (Reply 42):
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
UA IAD-HSV DEC 1.5>0.5
UA ORD-HSV JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 1.0>0.6

Double ouch.  

As always, thanks for the post!

Thanks

I hadn't seen that. Wow. Is the govt shutting some of the facilities there?

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 46):
there hasn't been 3x on DL metal to CDG.

As posted above, it was published to 3x on some days in Nov prior to this change which is way it showed 3.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:38 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 61):
I think the issue is that UA is in the worst position in LAX coupled with the fact they are under the most financial pressure...rightly or wrongly. DL and AA can afford to lose money there because they make so much elsewhere.

That and AA and DL need a Pacific hub. UA already has one right up the coast. Given DL's seasonal, day-of-week flying from LAX and AA's rough looking new routes--LAXPIT has literally been half full, I don't think it's an easy place for anyone to have much of an edge.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
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usdcaguy
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:48 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 55):
Instead, I'm referring to markets like SEA, PDX, OAK, SJC, SMF, RNO, LAS, PHX, TUS, ELP and ABQ - markets that 10-15 years ago saw multiple daily 737s on United and now in most cases see, at most, a few RJs, and all at a greatly reduced schedule. In every single one of these markets, one if not multiple competitors now fly substantially more flights and/or with substantially larger aircraft (with a better product).

If you look at these markets, you will notice they are sizable markets for WN and are not huge business markets, and this translates to low yields. Coupled with the huge pull-downs in capacity the industry has had in the past 10-15 years, it's little wonder we have seen so many UA RJs. On top of that, UA is no longer king in DEN, so the drop in flying in these western cities is also due to UA not being as big in its former fiefdom. I don't see the drop in UA mainline service as a weakness in their strategy but rather a result of changes in the competitive environment that make some western markets challenging for legacy carriers. Kudos to the Willis Tower for improving PRASM and making tough choices about its network.
 
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diverdave
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:56 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 47):
As far as future commitment of UA to LAX, this is well shown by its $425mil project to modernize T-6-7-8 which starts in a few weeks which includes a brand new 29,000sq ft lounge -- the largest domestic lounge at LAX by far.
(As comparison, current largest is the new Star lounge @ TBIT - 18,000sq ft.)

Isn't UA pretty much gone from T6 after AA takes over the four gates?

Quoting enilria (Reply 61):
I hadn't seen that. Wow. Is the govt shutting some of the facilities there?

No, we are doing well economically and some companies such as Boeing are adding to the workforce.

Our UA service may be a simultaneous casualty of both the UA and DL RJ drawdowns. UA is dropping flights to IAD, ORD, and DEN. DL has maintained decent frequency of service to ATL and likely has added seats with the upgauging of former CRJ flights to 717, MD-88, and A319.

David

[Edited 2014-08-04 12:36:14]
 
ordbosewr
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 56):
United may well be justifying the investment not as a basis for future growth, but rather just for preserving what they currently have.

As a business planner sometimes you look at Total Available Market (TAM) then you reduce that to Total Addressable Market.
Addressable Market is only a portion of the TAM that you feel (as a company or business or whatever) that you can reasonably target with your existing assets.
In my opinion, maybe Laxintl is correct that UA has said our strategy at LAX is to service the O&D market only and very limited hub strategy and rather route most of that traffic to SFO. If that is the case then they would need fewer 2nd tier cities to feed the flights they have. They would expect mostly O&D to fill most of the flights.
Those 2ndary cities will see better connection options through other hubs.

It is not always about growth of destinations but growth of share within your available market. If you have growth and increasing your share of the market then you are doing something right. The fact that you don't compete in many markets may be up for debate, but that decision is done against all of the rest of the network not just in the context of your competitors. We here on a.net get so focused on the competitor aspect when that is just one input into a portfolio analysis activity that is meant to account for all aspects and lines of business.

Commavia, your making the assumption that UA wants to be #1 in size and #1 in destinations served.
I would argue that they don't need to be either of those to have a sustainable presence in the market.
 
bobnwa
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:04 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 13):
i feel like this would be super unpopular with FFs in the LA area.
Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 48):
BOS is such an important route to have if you are trying to keep your LAX FF base satisified. Seems like such a dumb move by this united management

I would wager that the bulk of FF passengers between LAX/BOS purchase their tickets at the Boston end rather than the LAX end
 
HVNandrew
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:04 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 3):
*UA EWR-SAT JAN 0.8>0.1 FEB 0.9>0

I'm not that surprised to see this cut. It's not a huge market, and DL has put a 738 on their SAT-JFK route. Particularly in slower periods, I'm not sure there's room for more than one carrier in the NYC-SAT market.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:12 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 58):
The OW lounge will be 40,000 square feet when done next year. Is it only less than half open?

Yes new OW lounge portion that opened is currently only 11,000sq ft. Thats why they must turn away pax, and instead give passengers vouchers to eat at terminal restaurants. Capacity crunch is especially bad in the evening hours with all the QF/CX departures.
I'm not quite sure why they opened the way they did except were in a rush to catch up to Star and its new lounge.


Quoting diverdave (Reply 65):
Isn't UA pretty much gone from T6 after AA takes over the four gates?

UA still holds the master lease on the gates (AA is subleasing).
Even without the gates they still have the lobby, back office, maintenance, and ramp facilities over in T-6. Only when UA is fully able to consolidate staff into single teams then they might be able to shed more of the overlap backend facilities, though I've heard they need the T-6 counters still (its the premium lobby).
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
deltal1011man
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:29 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 50):
Don't pretend UA's schedule is all about inferiority.

In some markets it is. Your looking at SFO(hub to hub route) NYC(its New York so...) and PVG.

How about looking at places like SLC and SEA?

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 53):

DL ..... what gate growth ? They're mostly trapped at T5 with some common use of T6 (shared with UA and AS). DL is also the one who is deploying the most widebody out of the 3 legacies, so it's not like they have much room for up-gauging either. At the current state of affairs, DL has nearly no hope reaching 200 daily departures.

you didn't read what he said.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 54):
AA on the other hand continues to reduce LAX maintenance facility and staff ironically)

which means nothing for flights. Not a damn thing.

Delta has 400ish fights a day at JFK and LGA.....you know how many hangars they have? none. Zero, zip.
United is just now building a hangar for its hub at IAD.

Delta and America are, IMO, both trying to do as little as humanly possible in California because the State government is a huge pain in the ass. Why in the world would I have a bunch of hangar space in Cal that is going to be more expensive, more restrictive and the work force is going to be hard to fill when I can have hangars in places like SLC, TUL, DFW, PHX, SEA that aren't hard to fill and don't have the state trying as hard as they can to make things more costly to do work?

United expanding MX in Cali just tells me they are wanting higher cost hangars, not that they are any more committed to the market place.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:37 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 70):
In some markets it is. Your looking at SFO(hub to hub route) NYC(its New York so...) and PVG.

How about looking at places like SLC and SEA?

You've just listed 2 DL hub-to-hub routes which are also way smaller markets than SFO or NYC.
 
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diverdave
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:42 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 69):
UA still holds the master lease on the gates (AA is subleasing).
Even without the gates they still have the lobby, back office, maintenance, and ramp facilities over in T-6. Only when UA is fully able to consolidate staff into single teams then they might be able to shed more of the overlap backend facilities, though I've heard they need the T-6 counters still (its the premium lobby).

Interesting, thank you.  

David
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:42 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 63):
That and AA and DL need a Pacific hub. UA already has one right up the coast. Given DL's seasonal, day-of-week flying from LAX and AA's rough looking new routes--LAXPIT has literally been half full, I don't think it's an easy place for anyone to have much of an edge.

Well to be fair, DL now has two Pacific hubs and they are growing both, but I think I would agree that having SFO makes LAX less critical and the same could be said of IAD. OTOH, LAX/SFO/ORD/NYC/WAS are more or less the country's largest cities so it would seem valuable to not just run away. DEN is a different story. I don't think DEN is particularly critical, although they would lose geographic coverage. Maybe UA should shut DEN/LAX and take PHX when it comes available.   
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:03 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 74):


Once again, it would be one thing if this truly were just about "single-month cuts." It's not. These are "single-month cuts" following years of permanently eliminated routes and permanently reduced schedules.

With respect to LAS, I'm not comparing a seasonal difference between December and November, but rather the more meaningful difference between December 2014 and, say, December 2000.

What's the schedule for Dec 2000 ? Do you know ? Or you're just randomly pulling a date out of *somewhere* to make UA look bad ?

Quoting commavia (Reply 74):
Sorry, but I just don't buy that. AA and Delta are sending multiple daily 2-class RJs in some of those markets up against 50-seat CRJs at United. There are clearly some business passengers in some of those markets for which a 2-class product is attractive. But United's offering is now inferior to AA and Delta on those routes.

No one is asking you to "buy it" - the numbers are clear. DL has a lower load factor than UA on LAX-SFO *and* lower average fare, despite UA's "inferior" product and DL's "attractive" 2-class RJ.

UA has more departures, more ASM, more seat count, and more destinations than DL than LAX. If you think DL will overtake UA anytime in the next 10 years I'd love to be smoking your same stuff.
 
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compensateme
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:06 pm

We should rename this thread UA, AA, DL LAX Fanboy Faceoff!!!.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:10 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 74):
I don't know if United is necessarily in the "worst" position at LAX, but I do think it needs some work there.

I think DL is aggressively growing there, although they have gotten somewhat sidetracked with SEA. I think AA aggressively responded to DL which coupled with the likely future of PHX means they are committed to LAX. UA has not shown interest in defending their position IMHO.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 76):
We should rename this thread UA, AA, DL LAX Fanboy Faceoff!!!.

LOL
 
commavia
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:10 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 75):
What's the schedule for Dec 2000 ? Do you know ? Or you're just randomly pulling a date out of *somewhere* to make UA look bad ?

No, I don't have the schedule for December 2000. I was using that date to make a point. I do, however, have the schedule for summer 2001, right before 9/11, and I'd be happy to use it to illustrate my point about market after market where United is in a radically different competitive position than it was years ago.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 75):
DL has a lower load factor than UA on LAX-SFO *and* lower average fare, despite UA's "inferior" product and DL's "attractive" 2-class RJ.

Yeah ... and? LAX-SFO is a hub-hub route for United so I would be shocked if United didn't have a higher load factor and higher average fare. Nonetheless, the fact that Delta is offering a very competitive, high-frequency shuttle in competition with United in this market, compared to where it was in this market just a few years ago (on again, off again, much lower frequency) is pretty telling.

And, yet again, this isn't about a single market, and a single comparison. It's about a trend over time. You pick one example - SFO - to prove your point, but I can point to numerous markets (again: PHL, PIT, SEA, PDX, BWI, ATL, MIA, OAK, SMF, LAS, BOS, TUS, SJC, RNO, PHX, ELP and ABQ, as examples) that seem to illustrate just how far United has fallen in terms of its relative network strength in and out of LAX.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 75):
UA has more departures, more ASM, more seat count, and more destinations than DL than LAX. If you think DL will overtake UA anytime in the next 10 years I'd love to be smoking your same stuff.

I am less certain. If current trends continue, Delta will absolutely overtake United at LAX. Delta (and AA) are both growing steadily at LAX - a combination of new routes, more flights, and/or bigger planes - while United is pretty much down everywhere (again, except the former Continental hub markets, obviously).
 
ScottB
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 36):
I don't think it's a case of not making it work. I believe it's not desiring to fly such a long route in the slowest period with four competitors trashing yields. It's just not worth fighting for.

The issue, however, is that some customers may walk away permanently if a non-stop is eliminated, even if only seasonally. With both DL & AA offering expanded networks from LAX in recent years, it becomes a lot easier to jump to a competitor if the non-stop flight you rely on is eliminated.

Quoting ORDBOSEWR (Reply 38):
on one hand people kill UA for flying RJ's on many of these routes, so when UA cuts the route because it can't support mainline they get killed.

I think the criticisms are (1) that UA places RJ's in many markets which really ought to be mainline and in which most or all other competitors use mainline equipment and (2) that UA uses 50-seat RJ's on some very long flights and comfort becomes an issue. Both of these are consequences of pmUA's decision to park over a quarter of its domestic narrowbody fleet with no replacement about five years ago combined with pmCO's restrictive pilot scope which limited the carrier to 50-seat equipment at CO Express.

So they end up running about half their IAH-ATL flights on ERJ's, with nothing larger than an E175, while DL is all-mainline right now.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:17 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 78):
Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 75):
UA has more departures, more ASM, more seat count, and more destinations than DL than LAX. If you think DL will overtake UA anytime in the next 10 years I'd love to be smoking your same stuff.

I am less certain. If current trends continue, Delta will absolutely overtake United at LAX. Delta (and AA) are both growing steadily at LAX - a combination of new routes, more flights, and/or bigger planes - while United is pretty much down everywhere (again, except the former Continental hub markets, obviously).

Talk about self-contradicting. You said acknowledged DL is pretty much max'ed out at their resources, and you're now claiming DL will continue to be "growing steadily" to overtake UA .... clearly doesn't add up.

Quoting commavia (Reply 78):
Nonetheless, the fact that Delta is offering a very competitive, high-frequency shuttle in competition with United in this market, compared to where it was in this market just a few years ago (on again, off again, much lower frequency) is pretty telling.

The numbers are showing that this "very competitive" shuttle isn't resulting in actual passengers. AA is like 500bps higher LF on this route than DL despite DL having nearly 2x the frequency - explain that.
 
commavia
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:20 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 80):
You said acknowledged DL is pretty much max'ed out at their resources, and you're now claiming DL will continue to be "growing steadily" to overtake UA .... clearly doesn't add up.

No contradiction, it all adds up for those who want to do the "math." As I said, Delta is growing steadily and has recently begun busing some flights to keep up with growth. When I said "if current trends continue," I wasn't just referring to Delta's continual growth at LAX, but also United's continual retrenchment. Their respective numbers, by many metrics, are already converging - it's not going to take a whole lot more new flights or seats from Delta, and/or cut flights or seats by United - for Delta to overtake United by some or all of the metrics mentioned.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 80):
AA is like 500bps higher LF on this route than DL despite DL having nearly 2x the frequency - explain that.

AA operates fewer flights with larger aircraft, and fills their aircraft with more people. Explained.
 
boilerla
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:21 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 79):
The issue, however, is that some customers may walk away permanently if a non-stop is eliminated, even if only seasonally. With both DL & AA offering expanded networks from LAX in recent years, it becomes a lot easier to jump to a competitor if the non-stop flight you rely on is eliminated.

You'd think UA would be the best person to know that answer though. It's not like when a route decision is made it's a pure P&L decision--they know which customers fly the route the most, what their status is on the airline, etc. Guess you just have to trust the route planners.

Quoting enilria (Reply 61):
I think the issue is that UA is in the worst position in LAX coupled with the fact they are under the most financial pressure...rightly or wrongly.

"Worst" position? By what standard? UA still has the most international customers at LAX, and I don't see that changing since DL & AA have yet to show any real push internationally at LAX whilst UA announced LAX-MEL. Last year UA out-performed AA on LAX-PVG and LAX-NRT in every metric, including enplanements--funny, given UA was using a smaller aircraft for half the year.

Nobody knows the breakdown by hub, but UA has never mentioned anything about LAX under-performing--something that can't be said of other hubs they have called out.

LAX for UA will be an international focused O&D hub, pure and simple, with ~120 flights a day--around what AA and DL have at JFK, but nobody talks about those two "retreating" from NYC. A true connecting international mega-hub is a couple of hours up the road at SFO. That gives UA two international hubs on the west coast, and their competitors don't even have one. Why do both of them have to be everything to all people?
 
commavia
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:25 pm

Quoting boilerla (Reply 82):
LAX for UA will be an international focused O&D hub, pure and simple, with ~120 flights a day--around what AA and DL have at JFK, but nobody talks about those two "retreating" from NYC.

Well the present positions of AA and Delta at JFK are not really a "retreat" because that's their present position. United at LAX, however, would be "retreating" from its past position if it ended up at around 120 daily flights, mostly O&D-focused (which, again, I agree is likely). And actually, there have been numerous threads over the years discussing precisely this "retreat" of AA from JFK - again, not a "retreat" relative to where AA is now, but relative to where it was, say, 10 years ago.
 
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tlecam
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:51 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 67):
I would wager that the bulk of FF passengers between LAX/BOS purchase their tickets at the Boston end rather than the LAX end

I don't agree or disagree but I'm curious as to what the logic is behind this.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 76):
We should rename this thread UA, AA, DL LAX Fanboy Faceoff!!!.

HA! Sometimes A.Net reminds me of the Monte Python Argument Clinic scene.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
ScottB
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:58 pm

Quoting boilerla (Reply 82):
You'd think UA would be the best person to know that answer though.

One might think that, but then UA's track record isn't all that good. They lagged their peers in operating margin in Q2 and posted a substantial loss in Q1.

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 80):
The numbers are showing that this "very competitive" shuttle isn't resulting in actual passengers. AA is like 500bps higher LF on this route than DL despite DL having nearly 2x the frequency - explain that.

Honestly, it's most likely due to DL's absence from the LAX-SFO market for many years. I doubt LAX-SFO makes money for DL, but it's likely a loss leader to attract & retain L.A.-based passengers who want the convenience of hourly flights to SFO.

Quoting boilerla (Reply 82):
LAX for UA will be an international focused O&D hub, pure and simple, with ~120 flights a day--around what AA and DL have at JFK, but nobody talks about those two "retreating" from NYC.

LAX doesn't have another airport nearby which acts as the preferred domestic short-haul facility akin to LGA. Sure, there are BUR & SNA but the two combined aren't anywhere near the size of LGA. So sure, if neither DL nor AA had their respective large LGA domestic operations, one could be concerned about JFK "only" having 120 daily departures.
 
alfa164
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:58 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 75):
Or you're just randomly pulling a date out of *somewhere* to make UA look bad ?

No one needs to make UA look bad. UA seems to be doing it to itself...
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I have decided to be cremated....
 
brilondon
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:49 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 48):
BOS is such an important route to have if you are trying to keep your LAX FF base satisified. Seems like such a dumb move by this united management

Well you know that UA management is known for their dumb management policies. In fact they are just bad managers. Look at their product and you will see evidence of all that is wrong with them.
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:54 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 91):
Well you know that UA management is known for their dumb management policies. In fact they are just bad managers. Look at their product and you will see evidence of all that is wrong with them.

Tell us how you really feel...

Through the grapevine I've been told these really are just seasonal cuts.
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:59 pm

I think I answered my own question.

Regarding the IAD december cuts... it appears to be a slow holiday period reduction starting the next to last week of December and going through the first week of January; at least in our case.. I didn't look at any other cities.

CRW goes from to 2 flights a day during that few week period.. less on the weekends. which averages out to 3x daily on the month. Sensible and not the end of the world.
 
EricR
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:08 pm

Everyone appears to have forgot the fact that UA is in the process of re-balancing its network after the exit of US from Star Alliance.

For example, US had a massive FF base in BOS. In order to fill the planes now, UA would have to offer lower fares due to the number of carriers that now fly the route. The higher fares associated with the FF's have now gone to AA and OW on this route.

The same concept applies to routes ex-LAX such as PHL, PIT, BWI, PHX, TUS, ABQ where the combined US/UA had a large market share.

Perhaps said another way, UA may not have ever been on these routes or had so much capacity on many of these routes had US not been in Star.

The talk of AA and its LAX dominance is nothing more than the fact that the addition of US and their FF base now allows for N/S routes that were not as viable without US.
 
ordbosewr
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:31 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 73):
No. You're making the assumption that I'm making that assumption. I don't assume that United "wants," nor "needs" to be #1 in anything. What I'm assuming is that United wants to be sufficiently competitive at LAX to be relevant for passengers and ultimately make a profit. And what I'm suggesting is that if United keeps reducing and/or eliminating route after route at LAX while AA and Delta keep adding, eventually United will reach a point where it cannot even be competitive and relevant for some passengers - let alone #1, by any measure - in the market.

I am saying all of your comments imply that they do need to be in the top of the market to maintain what they have and my point is that they absolutely do not.
I manage another product in another market and I am happy to cede market in one place for another. I will also accept low growth and market share growth but if it allows me to invest in other areas where I can make more profit that is all that matters to me.
Your hypothesis is that unlimited growth by other carriers will be at the expense of UA, how do you know that?
If they maintain a network from LAX that their customers want then they will maintain share (and profit). Frankly, their customers may only care about a few markets and as long as they maintain those then will never have a problem. Will they grow substantially? Nope, but maybe that is not the plan for them nor is that required.

To you last sentence: Maybe UA is targeting a specific customer type in LAX and that is driving their decisions and they don't care about being relevant for those 'some'.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 78):
I think the criticisms are (1) that UA places RJ's in many markets which really ought to be mainline and in which most or all other competitors use mainline equipment and (2) that UA uses 50-seat RJ's on some very long flights and comfort becomes an issue. Both of these are consequences of pmUA's decision to park over a quarter of its domestic narrowbody fleet with no replacement about five years ago combined with pmCO's restrictive pilot scope which limited the carrier to 50-seat equipment at CO Express.

So they end up running about half their IAH-ATL flights on ERJ's, with nothing larger than an E175, while DL is all-mainline right now.

This has been discussed at length and UA is making changes to address this exact fact by moving all A319 on the EWR-ATL route to address this. It will be a competitive product to DL (which I have flown many times on 717, which I think is not much better than the RJ when you are not in Economy Comfort or 1st class, which I will never be).
But these planes have to come from somewhere, they only have so many mainline aircraft. Now that is a criticism that should be added to your list.
So my point is everyone will always be able to say this route 'should' be a mainline and maybe some should but the fleet does not allow it. Then UA has the choice to run it on a product that people may not like or not run it at all. It now appears UA is willing to make some of these hard choices and I like it.
 
alfa164
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:41 pm

Quoting ORDBOSEWR (Reply 95):
If they maintain a network from LAX that their customers want then they will maintain share (and profit).

I think that was commavia's point; that, at some point, they will not be maintaining enough of a network from LAX to satisfy their customers, and those customers will be moving on to other airlines.

Every airline has to maintain a "critical mass" of flyers in a particular market in order to stay competitiive. The question is whether or not UA's slow-but-sure retreat from various LAX-??? markets is reaching that tipping point.

[Edited 2014-08-04 16:51:00]
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need2fly
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:45 pm

Quote:
*UA SFO-COS JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0

I am very surprised United is dropping SFO as a destination from COS. That route has been around for decades! Sad to see it go!
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:48 pm

Quoting ORDBOSEWR (Reply 95):
It will be a competitive product to DL (which I have flown many times on 717, which I think is not much better than the RJ when you are not in Economy Comfort or 1st class, which I will never be).

Out of curiosity, why do you think that? I have yet to fly the 717s but I've heard that they're very comfortable.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
klwright69
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:14 am

Reading all the entries in this thread has gotten exhausting. Lots of interesting changes!

CO was in TUL/OKC nonstop to EWR for years and years. There are energy companies with a presence in Oklahoma that needed nonstops to NYC if I recall correctly. Companies like Williams and Helmerich and Payne. I guess it wasn't enough to save it.

EWR-DSM on the other hand, has been stopped and reinstated already before. So this is not an incredible shock.

Interesting SAT is losing EWR but gaining CUN on UA (albeit subdaily).

Or are these just seasonal adjustments?
 
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PA727
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:41 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-XNA OCT 0.7>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 0.9>0

Sorry to break up the LAX party, but does anyone know if this is seasonal or if DTW-XNA is gone for good? Would hate to lose a destination, are loads/yields that bad? Or is this an attempt to funnel more traffic through ATL with the additional mainline service?
 
lpdal
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:42 am

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 98):

They are very comfortable. I've been in both Delta and AirTran's 717 First Class, and Delta wins hands down. The AirTran Business Class seat was falling apart, and the armrest was cracked in many places.
AirTran Business Class Delta F FLL-ATL-CLE-ATL-FLL (by LPDAL Mar 10 2014 in Trip Reports)

-LPDAL
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usdcaguy
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:45 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 73):
Sorry, but I just don't buy that. AA and Delta are sending multiple daily 2-class RJs in some of those markets up against 50-seat CRJs at United. There are clearly some business passengers in some of those markets for which a 2-class product is attractive. But United's offering is now inferior to AA and Delta on those routes.

I agree with you, UA is likely beating a retreat, but the reason why AA and DL are flying 2-class RJs is because they're aggressively fighting each other in LAX despite very low fares. I'll bet if you look at the DL drawback of capacity out of SLC over the past 20 years, there are many, many OO flights that have taken the place of mainline service. Many of those are now 50-seat RJs (and rightly so). If you look at places like ELP, there isn't even service anymore to SLC, which was one of the old WA routes flown on a 737. The three carriers have their priorities and, despite what others may think, I think defending and milking SFO is more important to UA than fighting it out at LAX. I'm not comvinced we've seen the end of their cuts.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:13 am

United has to be renovated, lax its so tired for them. They certainly are not leaving and dont want to let AA or WN or DL get a true hub there there either. Just fly the most profitable stuff i guess is their new attitude but they will loose alot of FFs i think.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:05 am

Quoting PA727 (Reply 100):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-XNA OCT 0.7>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 0.9>0

Sorry to break up the LAX party, but does anyone know if this is seasonal or if DTW-XNA is gone for good? Would hate to lose a destination, are loads/yields that bad? Or is this an attempt to funnel more traffic through ATL with the additional mainline service?

When its reflected as such in the report, it is a permenant cut. Seasonal/temporary would only impact a sub-set of the timeperiod (e.g., if it was Jan/Feb).

DTW doesn't have the O&D for XNA since it does not have the Consumer Products/Retail business relationships to region. Hence why CVG-XNA still remains, despite every other spoke CVG having been cut. In addition, because of the length of the flight they were flying it with a 2-class RJ.

DL still serves ATL, MSP, CVG from XNA and easily connects to most points in the network.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:20 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 82):

Well the present positions of AA and Delta at JFK are not really a "retreat" because that's their present position. United at LAX, however, would be "retreating" from its past position if it ended up at around 120 daily flights, mostly O&D-focused (which, again, I agree is likely). And actually, there have been numerous threads over the years discussing precisely this "retreat" of AA from JFK - again, not a "retreat" relative to where AA is now, but relative to where it was, say, 10 years ago.

Just to point out...This summer DL is well over 200 flights a day at JFK now.

B6 around 170

AA around 100. AA has shrunk a lot at JFK in terms of destinations but is only down around 20 or so flights from their high.


The comparison is moot because DL and AA have operations that are larger 8 miles up the road at LGA
 
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MarcoPoloWorld
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:32 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AC SFO-YUL NOV 1.0>0.7

Although seemingly a slight retreat, the reality last winter was that AC published a daily schedule on this route but then did rolling cancellations of the mid-week flights, except during holidays. So this will be more honest, and I think pax can now rely on all the published flights to actually operate.

Also of note is that the winter flight will pick up the SFO daytime turnaround and not the overnight one that was the case last winter (the 2x summer schedule has both).
 
ordbosewr
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:37 am

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 98):
Out of curiosity, why do you think that? I have yet to fly the 717s but I've heard that they're very comfortable.

I have been on 6+ flights on EWR-ATL on the DL 717.
For all the talk of IFE, all they have and will have is Wifi, same as UA A319.
They will both have IFE Streaming via wifi. same
They both will have power. for now DL gets the nod since it is installed, but will be the same UA finishes the project
The 717 and A319 have larger overheads. same
The seats are very close to the similar, but have found the new UA seats to be more comfortable than the DL seats.
Last, I felt like a sardine in the seat in the back and I was unable to work with my laptop in the Economy seats. Economy Comfort was nice, when a DL rep was kind enough to move me in for no reason. I am comparing Economy to Economy, and in this case I take the UA plane. Not to mention when you are in the back few rows on the 717 they are just LOUD due to the engine location, which you don't have on the A319. This is not the case if you are up towards the middle/front of the Economy section, but many of us who are not status will be in the back.
 
Thomaas
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 3:54 am

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 98):
It will be a competitive product to DL (which I have flown many times on 717, which I think is not much better than the RJ when you are not in Economy Comfort or 1st class, which I will never be).

The 717s are not as comfortable as mainline aircraft. For one, the sit lower on the ground and have a smaller emergency exit door than A319s or 737s, therefore making them less comfortable to board. The engines at the back are probably one of the worst ideas that came to aviation engineers, they make the plane loud and uncomfortable for longer flights. Unless you are in first or E+, they very much feel like regional jets. The 3x2 layout in Economy doesn't help either, no one likes a middle seat.
 
steex
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 4:06 am

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 108):
The 717s are not as comfortable as mainline aircraft. For one, the sit lower on the ground and have a smaller emergency exit door than A319s or 737s, therefore making them less comfortable to board. The engines at the back are probably one of the worst ideas that came to aviation engineers, they make the plane loud and uncomfortable for longer flights. Unless you are in first or E+, they very much feel like regional jets.

Most of this makes virtually no sense and applies to a huge portion of the DL fleet (M88/M90). There are many things that can be said about these models, but very few would say they feel like regional jets.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 108):
The 3x2 layout in Economy doesn't help either, no one likes a middle seat.

This makes the least sense, though. If people hate middle seats, doesn't it make it much better to have half as many of them on the 717/M88/M90 as compared to a 319 or 320 by switching from 3x3 to 3x2? You seem to be mixing and matching your arguments inconsistently.
 
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KaiGywer
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:38 am

This thread has veered way off topic with the continued DL vs UA fanboy fight. Keep it on topic or it will be locked.
“Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, an
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 8/8/2014: AA/DL/BIG UA Changes

Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:46 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 87):
CO was in TUL/OKC nonstop to EWR for years and years. There are energy companies with a presence in Oklahoma that needed nonstops to NYC if I recall correctly. Companies like Williams and Helmerich and Payne. I guess it wasn't enough to save it.

These routes were getting awfully long and thin to make sense. Both overnight at the outstations, which is probably the ideal schedule for O&D traffic, but the return flights still don't arrive NYC until mid-morning, making a day trip difficult. Meanwhile, they do not connect well to Europe flights eastbound, so that takes out a good chunk of connecting passengers on shorter EWR routes, they practically overfly ORD, and IAH and DEN aren't terrible backtracks for a lot of folks. Even with a fair amount of O&D demand (~100 PDEW TUL-NYC; ~160 PDEW OKC-NYC), I can see why UA has trouble. UA, by the way, got about a third of the O&D traffic in both markets in Q413.
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