Robbie86
Topic Author
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EK In Scandinavia?

Wed Aug 06, 2014 12:55 pm

So, EK has been flying to both CPH and ARN for a while now. With OSL soon to begin, how are the routes from DXB to Scandinavia doing? Any chances of anyone going double daily or seeing the 380 soon?
 
Maersk737
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:00 pm

It's going pretty well, but none of the major Scandinavian airports are ready for the A380 on daily or weekly base.

Cheers

Peter
I'm not proud to be a Viking, just thankfull
 
cityairline
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:32 pm

I know that April-June is a bit slower for the likes of EK/QR from Scandinavia, but during second quarter this year the average number of passengers of EK at ARN was LESS than 228 (while QR was 173)...

/Alex
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
Someone83
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:02 pm

That is quite a low load factor?
 
cityairline
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:15 pm

Quoting someone83 (Reply 3):

Indeed! And QR has been hit quite hard by the entrance of EK at ARN. So as of right now, neither of them are doing well during lean months. Although, EK are still quite new here, so lets hope for a better future.
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
ARN
Posts: 262
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:40 pm

Do you think that EK might downgrade to A332 or perhaps deploy a A343? Given that loadfactor that 77W could be more useful elsewhere. But then again, the belly might be full of cargo.
 
cityairline
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:52 pm

To be honest, I don't think EK will decrase frequencies or downgrade aircraft type, I just think that a second daily or an A380 is far from being considered. Atleast for a few years to come.

What I do think we should expect in the nearest future, is QR adding HEL and GOT. EK seems far from these (atleast GOT), but a QR 787 shouldn't be any trouble filling up at these stations.
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
sas767
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:35 am

Quoting cityairline (Reply 2):
I know that April-June is a bit slower for the likes of EK/QR from Scandinavia, but during second quarter this year the average number of passengers of EK at ARN was LESS than 228 (while QR was 173)...

In general Q2 is the weakest quarter for EK and QR in Scandinavia with the month of May being particular weak.

For the EK figures at ARN for Q2 you have to remember that Norwegian flew to DXB during the month of April with three weekly flights (estimated 3.000 pax). This means that the estimated figure for EK at ARN will be around 210 pax per flight during Q2.

For the fun of it we can compare with the figures for EK and QR at CPH during Q2. Please remember that passenger figures in itself do not say anything about yield or the financial performance of the route in question.

CPH EK: Average of 309 pax per flight in Q2
CPH QR: Average of 188 pax per flight in Q2

And also the Q1 figures for CPH - at lot stronger compared to Q2.

CPH EK: Average of 395 pax per flight in Q1
CPH QR: Average of 228 pax per flight in Q1
 
Someone83
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:46 am

Quoting sas767 (Reply 7):
For the fun of it we can compare with the figures for EK and QR at CPH during Q2. Please remember that passenger figures in itself do not say anything about yield or the financial performance of the route in question.

CPH EK: Average of 309 pax per flight in Q2
CPH QR: Average of 188 pax per flight in Q2

And also the Q1 figures for CPH - at lot stronger compared to Q2.

CPH EK: Average of 395 pax per flight in Q1
CPH QR: Average of 228 pax per flight in Q1

How would that be translated into load factors?
 
vfw614
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:48 am

I think it needs to be considered that OSL, ARN are fairly "small" airports by international standards despite being the major international airport for their countries. DUS, for example, is roughly the same size, but has a much larger catchment area. So I guess there is limited growth potential in Sweden and Norway.

As for GOT, I really doubt it. GOT is the #74 airport in Europe and I can think of a ton of other airports that are more likely to get a QR flight before GOT. Just for comparison, QR pulled its A319 service at STR a while ago where it was the only ME3 carrier. STR is twice the size of GOT passenger-wise.

As for HEL, the challenge will probably be that the Asian market is so conveniently served by Finnair and its partners. Flying via the ME3 sandpit would be such a big detour for Finland-based passengers that fares would need to be rock-bottom to be attractive. Plus the Helsinki metropolis is fairly small with just 1m. Looks quite a challenge for any ME3 carrier as they would have to rely on local traffic to/from a smallish catchment area - unlike AY that has domestic and European feed for its longhauls.
 
pa747sp
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:13 am

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 9):
As for HEL, the challenge will probably be that the Asian market is so conveniently served by Finnair and its partners.

True, but for EK there are a lots of cities south of DXB that would make a connections via DXB from HEL attractive. The Eastern and Southern African cities, the Indian Ocean islands and the Middle East.

Also, the logic of geography doesn't always old sway. EK carries a surprising amount of traffic from the Eastern Australian cities to India. Thats a big dog-leg but people will do it for various reasons.
Nothing seems as good since the VC10.
 
sas767
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:08 am

Quoting someone83 (Reply 8):
Quoting sas767 (Reply 7):

CPH EK: Average of 309 pax per flight in Q2
CPH QR: Average of 188 pax per flight in Q2

And also the Q1 figures for CPH - at lot stronger compared to Q2.

CPH EK: Average of 395 pax per flight in Q1
CPH QR: Average of 228 pax per flight in Q1

How would that be translated into load factors?

L/F calculated based on the actual configuration of aircraft used - EK mainly uses 2-class 773 on the CPH route but also 3-class 773 now and then.

CPH EK: Average of 309 pax per flight in Q2: Average L/F = 74%
CPH QR: Average of 188 pax per flight in Q2: Average L/F = 74%

And also the Q1 figures for CPH - at lot stronger compared to Q2.

CPH EK: Average of 395 pax per flight in Q1: Average L/F = 91%
CPH QR: Average of 228 pax per flight in Q1: Average L/F = 90%
 
Someone83
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:23 am

Quoting sas767 (Reply 11):
L/F calculated based on the actual configuration of aircraft used - EK mainly uses 2-class 773 on the CPH route but also 3-class 773 now and then.

CPH EK: Average of 309 pax per flight in Q2: Average L/F = 74%
CPH QR: Average of 188 pax per flight in Q2: Average L/F = 74%

And also the Q1 figures for CPH - at lot stronger compared to Q2.

CPH EK: Average of 395 pax per flight in Q1: Average L/F = 91%
CPH QR: Average of 228 pax per flight in Q1: Average L/F = 90%

Tahnk you  

So quite decent load factors, even with a drop in the low season in Q2

Can you find the same for ARN?
 
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AirPacific747
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:41 pm

I flew with EK from CPH to DXB back in May and the plane was only maybe 1/3 full (I and many other passengers had three seats to myself) About half full on the way back 5 days later.
 
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Finn350
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:56 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 9):
As for HEL, the challenge will probably be that the Asian market is so conveniently served by Finnair and its partners. Flying via the ME3 sandpit would be such a big detour for Finland-based passengers that fares would need to be rock-bottom to be attractive. Plus the Helsinki metropolis is fairly small with just 1m. Looks quite a challenge for any ME3 carrier as they would have to rely on local traffic to/from a smallish catchment area - unlike AY that has domestic and European feed for its longhauls.

I would assume that at some point, EK will serve HEL. There should be enough demand when combining those connecting at DXB & leisure traffic. AY is already flying HEL - DXB seasonally.
 
cityairline
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Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2005 12:29 am

RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:57 am

Quoting sas767 (Reply 7):
In general Q2 is the weakest quarter for EK and QR in Scandinavia with the month of May being particular weak.

Isn't that what I said:

Quoting cityairline (Reply 2):

I know that April-June is a bit slower for the likes of EK/QR from Scandinavia

And

Quoting sas767 (Reply 7):
For the EK figures at ARN for Q2 you have to remember that Norwegian flew to DXB during the month of April with three weekly flights (estimated 3.000 pax)

I know. Once again, why do you think I wrote "LESS than 228"? Because of the presence of DY during april...

That being said, I must say that CPH seem to be doing very well with both QR and EK. If you look at the average LF for H1 2014 (Q1 and Q2 combined), both airlines enjoy an LF of 82% at CPH!

Quoting someone83 (Reply 12):
Can you find the same for ARN?

Only for QR (I don't know if SAS767 can do it for EK aswell).

QR at ARN in Q1: 211 pax per flight (83% LF)
QR at ARN in Q2: 173 pax per flight (68% LF)

QR at ARN in H1: 192 pax per flight (76% LF) Down from 82% in H1 2013

/Alex
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
Robbie86
Topic Author
Posts: 314
Joined: Fri May 19, 2006 11:35 pm

RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Fri Aug 08, 2014 3:02 pm

That CPH is doing better than ARN isn't that weird at all. Not that anyone has said so anyways. CPH is the main airport for Denmark + the regions of Skåne, Småland, Halland, Blekinge and parts of Västra Götaland in Sweden. For ARN it's the Stockholm area and northern Sweden while a lot of people in the the regions of Värmland, Dalarna and parts of Västra Götaland is closer to OSL.

My guess is that the airport that is most likely to see the A380 or double daily sometime is CPH.
 
Malayil
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:50 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see HEL at some point, but AY is so strong you never know. I don't think we will ever see EK at GOT.
 
MistaP
Posts: 24
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2013 7:51 pm

RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Fri Aug 08, 2014 5:22 pm

Quoting robbie86 (Reply 16):

Well, Then they have to get CPH capable of handling the a380 first
 
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HELyes
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Fri Aug 08, 2014 5:47 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 14):

I would assume that at some point, EK will serve HEL.

Probably QR first, they already announced HEL once but nothing happened.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 9):
As for HEL, the challenge will probably be that the Asian market is so conveniently served by Finnair and its partners.

Yes it's great to have 15 non stop routes to Asia from a relatively small airport (and small market) but it seems there isn't much room for competition, unfortunately.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:52 pm

Quoting robbie86 (Reply 16):
That CPH is doing better than ARN isn't that weird at all. Not that
anyone has said so anyways. CPH is the main airport for Denmark + the regions of Skåne,
Småland, Halland, Blekinge and parts of Västra Götaland in Sweden. For ARN it's the Stockholm
area and northern Sweden while a lot of people in the the regions of Värmland, Dalarna and
parts of Västra Götaland is closer to OSL.

My guess is that the airport that is most likely to see the A380 or double daily
sometime is CPH.

This have been discussed before and the population basis difference for CPH and
ARN are very small. IIRC both have a population basis of around 7 million people.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
Robbie86
Topic Author
Posts: 314
Joined: Fri May 19, 2006 11:35 pm

RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:53 pm

Quoting MistaP (Reply 18):

I've heard rumors that TG has expressed interest in bringing their whale to CPH. Let's say that both TG and EK are willing to do it, I can't see that the authorities will be late with making it possible. Unless the danish workers go on another strike.  
 
cedarjet
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RE: EK In Scandinavia?

Sat Aug 09, 2014 7:46 am

I would have thought there's no shortage of leisure pax to fill the planes if they're willing to take a hit on yield - Scandinavians' appetite for visiting Thailand is virtually limitless.

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 13):
I flew with EK from CPH to DXB back in May and the plane was only maybe 1/3 full (I and many other passengers had three seats to myself) About half full on the way back 5 days later.

The last time I flew on a plane that had more than the odd empty middle seat dotted around an otherwise jam-packed cabin, Michael Jackson was black.

Quoting robbie86 (Reply 21):
I've heard rumors that TG has expressed interest in bringing their whale to CPH.

Again, they could fill it, although the yields would probably be only mediocre - no business links to Thailand, just millions of blonde people with swimming costumes and beach towels.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz

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