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LHRFlyer
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:55 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 48):
You will, of course, no doubt have proof of this statement? Right now I'm saying BS.

It was definitely stated in the Australian press (a long time ago now) that BA has pressed Qantas to go for the 777 when it had a director on the Qantas board.

Being in mind BA opted to go for the 777 in the 1990s rather than continuing with the 747, it's hardly a fanciful statement.
 
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qf2220
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:29 pm

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 49):
he and now AJ was all about the A380

To be fair, dont sling the A380s around AJ's neck, these were ordered well before he was in the CEO chair and that is what he has to work with. If anything it is on his watch that the order has been reduced to a more rational amount. Can you imagine the issues trying to fill another 6 A380s on the QF network?

Quoting VCEflyboy (Reply 47):

I direct you to the many threads that discuss why PER-LHR is not viable at the current time. Also, the 789 discussion is more about excercise of the current options rather than any cancellation reversals.

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 49):
But as far as the 777 is concerned QF have never been interested in geting the 777 or I dont think we will ever see a 777 in the fleet

You know, I wonder if QF is just that 10 years out of step and in general out of kilter with their medium and large aircraft purchase decisions compared to the best options the industry has to offer. Id say a large part of the lack of 777s in the fleet is because at the time they had a young fleet of 744s that were doing well. If they had had more 742s or 743s, the 777 would have replaced them well. Instead they bought 3 more (from KE and MH i think, the 3 ugly sisters) and aksed Boeing for the 744ERs (which only they operate). They then only took up the A330s as delay compensation from Airbus and realised that they were not bad, instead of getting in early and replacing the 767 fleet with them. If they had done this, then the older A330s would be at the retirement age by now and the 789 order would be existant.

Just another observation....
 
bunumuring
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:59 pm

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 49):
I dont think that is BS, that might have happen. But as far as the 777 is concerned QF have never been interested in geting the 777 or I dont think we will ever see a 777 in the fleet

Sorry mate, you are dead wrong.

Qantas had a preliminary deal worked out to buy 777-200ERs way back in the late 1990s, that was to be revealed at a Farnborough airshow. They baulked due to currency issues or a big loss or a drop in the Aussie dollar or something. I can't remember exactly what. It was for something like 8 firm and 6 options, if I remember correctly.

Then Qantas almost got the 5 Cathay Pacific 777-200s (which included one of the prototypes) when Ansett collapsed in 2001 and QF were desperate for more uplift. I had a mate in QF maintenance who worked on the deal at the time. It fell through as well at a late stage.

Then Geoff Dixon in an Australian Aviation interview discussing the A330/A380/747-400ER orders stated that the 767-400ER would've been perfect for Qantas domestic and near-Asia and the 777 perfect for Asia and transTasman, and he was keen on a deal, but ultimately Airbus offered a 'one size fits all' A330 deal that was joined to a killer deal on the A380... Qantas took the Airbus bait and we have the fleet now resulted from that decision.

Qantas definitely looked at the 777 at other times too, according to speculation in the media, but never got as close again to ordering the 777. I believe Geoff Dixon went on record stating something like it was one of his biggest regrets as QF chief that the 777 never entered the fleet under his management. Anyone else remember that? I can't remember where I read that...

Cheers,
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FlyCaledonian
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:15 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 52):
Qantas definitely looked at the 777 at other times too, according to speculation in the media, but never got as close again to ordering the 777.

Qantas was also one of the airlines on the "Working Together" group put together by Boeing to help with the specifications of the 777. If I recall correctly, Qantas is the only airline on that group that never ordered the 777.

I think one of the issues for QF was that its longhaul operation was built around the 747, with the 767 operating domestic and Asia. The first 18 747-438s were delivered between 1989-92, by which time the P&W powered 747-200Bs had left the fleet. This left QF with 18 747-438s, plus 12 RR powered 747 Classics (742s/743s/747SPs).

During the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s it picked up three GE powered 744s from MH/OZ, and ordered 3 more RR powered 744s. In the early 2000s it then added the 6 GE powered 744ERs. There was also the proposal to take the 6 CX RR powered 743s to operate alongside QFs 6 aircraft.

If there was an opportunity for QF to take 777s I think it was firstly in the late 1990s, and then again in the early 2000s, but both times it went for 747s. The late 1990s was when BA started cancelling 744 orders in favour of 777s (If I've tallied things up correctly from ATDB BA cancelled a total of 17 744s for 777s).

Bilaterals didn't help QF (e.g. not being able to operate more than three-weekly to CDG), but 777s could potentially have allowed QF to maintain more service to Europe. I'm not saying it would have saved QF from the advance of the ME3, but the JSA with BA was about Europe-Australia, so potentially there could have been better leverage there. Mind you, lots of "what ifs" there, including could QF benefitted from LX joining oneworld by having ZRH as a better positioned hub for European connections.

But back to topic... if QF is to relaunch international Ops from Perth I think an international configuration 737 could be the way to go. Either the 738, or could QF consider 739ERs? As QF is using international configured aircraft on SYD-PER (and I think PER-MEL) a small subfeelt could also allow some capacity readjustments on these routes for some flights, as well as the potential for some flights ex-SYD and ex-BNE into SE Asia to return to Mainline. Now where's the cool aid...
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qf002
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Mon Aug 11, 2014 1:52 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 52):
stated that the 767-400ER would've been perfect for Qantas domestic and near-Asia and the 777 perfect for Asia and transTasman

A QF 77E vs CX/SQ/TG/CZ/etc A333 contest would have ended up in the same sort of mess as the QF 744 vs CX/SQ/EK/etc 77W contest has. I'm sure that there could have been a place for the 77E in the fleet (and it would have paved the way for a 15-20 strong 77W fleet IMO) but it was not Asia.

While we can lament the decline of QF long haul, I think it's important to balance that off against the relative survival of regional services. It's far more important to QF's future success that they have a strong network in Asia (and that includes serving PER-Asia) and the A330 has done that for them.

Of course, the 787 would save both     

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 52):
I believe Geoff Dixon went on record stating something like it was one of his biggest regrets as QF chief that the 777 never entered the fleet under his management. Anyone else remember that? I can't remember where I read that...

Can't remember specifically, but it rings a bell. I do remember that Alan Joyce made comments along the lines of "I wish I could go back in time and change the A380/A330/744ER order" earlier this year.

Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself, and we don't end up looking back in another 10-15 years and discussing all the opportunities that today's management missed.   
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:09 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 52):
Airbus offered a 'one size fits all' A330 deal

Ultimately I think QF was going to order A380s regardless, so getting some "free A330s" on the side was a smart decision. There are plusses and minusses both ways: what the A330 lacks in range compared to the 777 it makes up for in flexibility between the 332 and 333 as opposed to a split 764/772 fleet. For domestic and Asia, which would have been the primary markets for either prospective order, I genuinely believe that the intra-330 flexibility was pretty valuable.

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 53):
potential for some flights ex-SYD and ex-BNE into SE Asia to return to Mainline

Out of interest, which routes are you considering here?

Quoting qf002 (Reply 54):
Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself, and we don't end up looking back in another 10-15 years and discussing all the opportunities that today's management missed

That's why ROI or not, QF need to take delivery of those 787s. Joyce is walking a very, very fine tightrope between trying to improve the financial results to please some investors who are rapidly loosing patience (and in doing so presumably safe-guarding his own job!) and leaving QF in the same situation in the 2020s as they were in the 2000s, with a sub-optimal fleet of inefficient aircraft. Hopefully the largest institutional investors have the foresight and patience to realise that it might be worth tying up some capital in 2016 for returns 5-10 years down the track.

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 51):
Can you imagine the issues trying to fill another 6 A380s on the QF network?

In 2014 or 2019? I still see those as important 747 replacements to LAX (be it QF107/8, QF15/16 or - possibly - both), and think that (presuming CASA does not have a change of heart) they will do a decent job to SCL (probably still at sub-daily, though) as that market matures. If they took those today then God help them, but deferring them until the 74E retirements is a potentially smart strategy,
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Flyingsottsman
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:20 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 52):
Sorry mate, you are dead wrong.

Qantas had a preliminary deal worked out to buy 777-200ERs way back in the late 1990s, that was to be revealed at a Farnborough airshow. They baulked due to currency issues or a big loss or a drop in the Aussie dollar or something. I can't remember exactly what. It was for something like 8 firm and 6 options, if I remember correctly.

I was under the impression that even thow Qantas was on the design panal for the 777 was that they in the end did not want the plane. Thanks for puatting me in the right direction.  
 
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:21 am

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 51):
To be fair, dont sling the A380s around AJ's neck, these were ordered well before he was in the CEO chair and that is what he has to work with. If anything it is on his watch that the order has been reduced to a more rational amount. Can you imagine the issues trying to fill another 6 A380s on the QF network?

You are right there I should not have hung that around his neck the deal was done buy the time he took over the top job.
 
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:00 am

I am starting to wounder if QF in the long run, will run most of the QFi international services out of Sydney and let JQ do the international flying out of all the other main land capitals apart from MEL- LAX and BNE -LAX?

QF has nothing out of Adelaide international wise. In Perth they only have Auckland and thats seasonal and JQi only does DPS and Loombok. Darwin has nothing apart from JQi also to DPS. Cairns has no QFi service but JQi runs to Japan from there.
Brisbane has Hong Kong and Singapore in SE Asia but no London service via Dubai, and Melbourne gets London via Dubai Singapore, Hong Kong, LAX, plus Auckland and Wellington and thats with Jetconnect. Look at those compared to where QF serves from Sydney, so i am woundering that in the futrue will we see QFi just operating out of Sydney and JQi operating out of the rest of the mnain land captials?
And yes I do relise that Sydney has and will always be the main hub for QF.
 
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qf2220
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:26 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 55):
In 2014 or 2019? I still see those as important 747 replacements to LAX (be it QF107/8, QF15/16 or - possibly - both), and think that (presuming CASA does not have a change of heart) they will do a decent job to SCL (probably still at sub-daily, though) as that market matures. If they took those today then God help them, but deferring them until the 74E retirements is a potentially smart strategy,

You are quite bullish on the A380 in general and its use on SCL specifically (and possibly JNB I might posit)! I myself cannot see it happening. The 74Es are more than enough and even by 2019 Im not sure the route will be daily even on them. An A380 is 25% larger in absolute seat count so is going to be a lot harder to fill. Time will tell which one of us is right of course, but given the current service levels havent changed since it was introduced, im on the sceptical side of this arguement!
 
Razza74
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:48 pm

PER-SIN is going to be a challenge for QF if they decide to re-enter the market with
SQ x 4 with 772/333
TZ x 1 with 772
JQ x 1 with 320
3K x 2 with 320
TR x 1 with 320

QF are going to have to find a balance between frequency, price and product. SQ currently have the premium product and frequency and the rest have the price advantage, for QF to make it work IMHO they would need to run 3+ 73H just to offer a similar frequency to SQ

QF could also run 73H PER-KUL, MH is a OW carrier potentially struggling to fill seats and with QF flying PER-KUL they could capture those not wanting to fly MH.

There are many more opportunities for QF out of PER
JNB
BOM
BKK
HGK
These along with others are served either by one or no carrier from PER, with a little imagination QF could serve a whole range of destinations

Razza74
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fiscal
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:08 am

Quoting Razza74 (Reply 60):
PER-SIN is going to be a challenge for QF if they decide to re-enter the market with
SQ x 4 with 772/333
TZ x 1 with 772
JQ x 1 with 320
3K x 2 with 320
TR x 1 with 320

You quote TZ but what is that? TZ shows up as American Air Trans. Is that a code share or something or has another operator entered the market, and I missed it?
 
QF175
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:19 am

Quoting fiscal (Reply 61):

TZ = Scoot, the new Singaporean LCC operating ex-SQ 772s...

Scoot is a new entrant on the Perth-Singapore route.

Cheers
 
fiscal
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:59 am

Quoting QF175 (Reply 62):
TZ = Scoot, the new Singaporean LCC operating ex-SQ 772s

Stupid me, I should have realized as it flies over my place each night. The link association threw me.
 
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qf2220
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:25 pm

Quoting Razza74 (Reply 60):
BOM

Now this would be an interesting one. It is currently one stop via anywhere to get from Aus to BOM and everywhere else in India (except DEL of course). Why could that one stop not be via PER? SYD-PER-BOM is only 250mi more than SYD-BOM direct. With the right timing, MEL, ADE, BNE, CNS, CBR could all provide a good catchment. What about another destination in India and operate it in a triangle?
 
bwwt
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:57 pm

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 64):
Why could that one stop not be via PER?

Because SYD & MEL hold the bulk of the the yield to India?
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:22 am

Quoting bwwt (Reply 65):
Because SYD & MEL hold the bulk of the the yield to India?

Putting "yield" and "Australia-India" in the same sentence isn't a particularly productive exercise  

QF tried operating to BOM in the past, initially direct and then via SIN, but the route was a poor performer. The lions-share of high yield Australia-India traffic goes with SQ, with QF/9W, MH, TG, and of course now AI mopping up some of the remainder. Trying to dislodge SQ's dominance will be almost as difficult as trying to dislodge EK to Europe!

I don't disagree with Bwwt that if QF were to take another stab at BOM then PER wouldn't be a bad place to try it from. Excluding AI, you need to stopover somewhere anyway. The problem with PER is the International-Domestic connection nightmare. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think QF are planning to relocate to the International precinct? When putting PER up against SIN, KUL, or BKK, PER compares very, very, very unfavourably. For this reason I think that SIN is still the logical stop-over point, timed to connect to SYD, BNE, MEL, and - yes - PER.
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jacobchoi
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:47 am

Do you think it will be possible for QF to operate 1x daily PER-DXB service with its A332s?
 
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:56 am

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 67):
Do you think it will be possible for QF to operate 1x daily PER-DXB service with its A332s?

I've been wishing for this to happen since the EK-QF agreement was announced. Right now, though, two factors count against it: (1) ME3 overcapacity to PER, and (2) a lack of A330s.

We were discussing in AusAv about the QF A330 requirements: to maintain their current schedules to Asia they will need 9.1 A333s (out of 10 - i.e. 0.9 for maintenance/operational spare), I can't verify this but there it was suggested that ~15 A332s would be needed for domestic flying (out of 20). I can't remember whether that was just for PER flying or whether it counted DRW as well, so I'm going to round it to 16. With the route going to 4/5 weekly, HNL is going to almost need 1 A330, so 17. Leaves 3, 1 operational spare, leaves 2 frames. They could do PER-DXB with that, but they might have other priorities (allegedly LAX-BNE is been evaluated!). Who knows?
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jacobchoi
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:20 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 68):
allegedly LAX-BNE is been evaluated

That's one long A332 flight, even longer than the SEA-HKG, I highly doubt if it will be operationally feasible... Is the current 744 too much plane for BNE-LAX?
 
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qfvhoqa
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:32 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
Putting "yield" and "Australia-India" in the same sentence isn't a particularly productive exercise

   Too true. The long stage length of east coast Australia to India flights destroys much of the chance that these flights have. PER-India is shorter but still has little chance IMO because:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
The lions-share of high yield Australia-India traffic goes with SQ

SQ has a stranglehold on the AU-India market. That they can command such a large share of the traffic even with high fares means that the lower yielding pax are even willing to transit AUH/DXB for lower fares.

SQ's dominance isn't solely due to their inflight product - much like the AU-EU market the AU-India market is not concentrated on one or two cities. A hypothetical PER-BOM flight will still mean that a large portion of the pax will need to transfer to another flight to their destination (HYD/DEL/BLR). And what premium pax wants to connect in BOM? Then for SYD/MEL pax it means a double connection MEL-PER-BOM-BLR. There's just not enough of a PER market to support a direct flight to India.
 
bwwt
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:55 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
Putting "yield" and "Australia-India" in the same sentence isn't a particularly productive exercise  

haha. Touche!

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
The lions-share of high yield Australia-India traffic goes with SQ

   I think this is the reason we see the issues involved in AUS-India
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:04 am

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 69):
That's one long A332 flight, even longer than the SEA-HKG, I highly doubt if it will be operationally feasible

I honestly don't think that it is economically viable, and am personally very, very sceptical of the rumours, and even more sceptical that it would ever happen.

The route is 660 miles longer than SEA-HKG or LAX-AKL (which, interestingly, are almost exactly the same length), and while technically within the A332s range, that doesn't account for the strong headwinds that blow over the South Pacific. QF are used to pushing aircraft to the edge of their performance against the wind, operating the 74E on DFW-BNE, and I'm sure they could apply the knowledge that they gained on that route here, but I am really doubtful that they could operate with more than 70% load and no cargo.

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 69):
Is the current 744 too much plane for BNE-LAX?

The route is the weakest of QF's Australia-USA routes, that isn't exactly a closely guarded secret, but it definitely holds its own. The route recently went from 6x weekly to daily, plus it is to LAX: a weak route to LAX is probably still more profitable than any other route in QF's longhaul network.

I think the issue that has sparked these rumours is VA going daily 77W. That is, bluntly, capacity dumping because they have nothing else to do with the aircraft. With UA entering MEL yields there would have taken a tumble with three operators on the route, and with 3x weekly frequency, VA is the weakest competitor. I assume they feel that by making one route daily they would have a better chance of capturing premium yield. The problem is that this is going to lead to massive overcapacity in the BNE-LAX market, and yields are going to be hammered. Between QF (364 seats on the 74E) and VA (361 seats on the 77W) there will be 725 daily seats between BNE and LAX, only 20 fewer than MEL-LAX at 745, with QF (484 seats on the 388) and UA (261 seats on the 789). The population of Melbourne Metro (4.4m) is double the size of Brisbane Metro (2.2m). I'll let you do the math!

My opinion is that QF will determine that the 332 is not viable, and they drop BNE-LAX to 5x weekly on the 74E. With a bit of luck common sense will prevail and VA will do the same.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 70):
lower yielding pax are even willing to transit AUH/DXB for lower fares.

  

EK and EY do a surprisingly brisk trade on Australia-India, but the yields must be atrocious. I would compare it to TK on USA-EU. While EK, EY, and TK have very low operating costs, that sort of traffic doesn't sound like a way to make money.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 70):
much like the AU-EU market the AU-India market is not concentrated on one or two cities

  

The reasons for EK dominance to Europe and SQ dominance to India are almost exactly congruent ... and predominantly come down to just one factor: network.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 70):
flight will still mean that a large portion of the pax will need to transfer to another flight to their destination (HYD/DEL/BLR).

  

It is LHR all over again for QF. That's why, IMHO, the 9W codeshares over SIN are the best way forward. Even though 9W has a smaller SIN-India network than SQ, it is still more competitive than what QF could offer on their own metal.

[Edited 2014-08-12 19:07:38]

[Edited 2014-08-12 19:11:48]
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IndianicWorld
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:02 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
My opinion is that QF will determine that the 332 is not viable, and they drop BNE-LAX to 5x weekly on the 74E. With a bit of luck common sense will prevail and VA will do the same.

I had thought the same thing, but am not sure just how far QF will go to protect its market position on BNE-LAX.

I get the feeling though that QF would rather consolidate its market leading position on MEL/SYD-LAX (currently reported to be higher yielding markets) if things were not going well in BNE (ie. potential yield issues, overcapacity).

It will ultimately deploy its assets where it sees the most need for it, and given that it now seems to be playing some smarter capacity decisions of late (ie. seasonal changes and route re-allignments), who knows what it will do to try and gain maximum advantage.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
I think the issue that has sparked these rumours is VA going daily 77W. That is, bluntly, capacity dumping because they have nothing else to do with the aircraft.

Thats very true.

It certainly boxed itself into a very tight corner by its previous network decisions and now has very little in the way of options left. Moving BNE-LAX to daily was the only option left to it to try and find a market to try and maximise its opportunities.

MEL-LAX was there to operate daily, potentially ridding the market of the UA tag-on flights , but the latter ended up moving in and opening non-stop. That was a big opportunity that UA finally had the right aircraft for the route at the right time (still no significant competitive advantage by VA on the route).

Lots of speculation went on last year in the industry that VA/DL were about to make big changes to its MEL flights, but they held off and ended up conceding defeat in the market after being out-flanked.

[Edited 2014-08-12 20:21:16]
 
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:12 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 74):
I had thought the same thing, but am not sure just how far QF will go to protect its market position on BNE-LAX.

I think QF will want to stay on BNE-LAX, and I doubt they will want to go below 5x weekly so that they remain competitive. The question is how much loss are either airline willing to take? IMHO ditching BNE-LAX will send as loud a signal in the QLD market as ending PER-SIN did in WA. If the domestic market is anything to go by, they will both dig in and duel it out with a never ending cycle of worsening yields. If nothing else it will make VA look good, chasing QF off a route. Given the size of the two egos at play, I don't think that Joyce is willing to let that happen, but similarly I can't see Borghetti be too concerned about perpetual losses.
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qfvhoqa
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:34 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
QF are used to pushing aircraft to the edge of their performance against the wind, operating the 74E on DFW-BNE

I wouldn't be surprised if QF feel through operating BNE-DFW at the edge of the aircraft's ability that they can try to push other aircraft types to the same extent. Perhaps they found that the cost of diversions/payload restrictions for part of the year was outweighed by the benefits offered. Maybe a payload restricted A332 on BNE-LAX would be better than a lightly loaded 744?

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
I think the issue that has sparked these rumours is VA going daily 77W. That is, bluntly, capacity dumping because they have nothing else to do with the aircraft.

   Daily BNE-LAX is VA's only option as they would be clobbered on their 3x weekly MEL-LAX.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
My opinion is that QF will determine that the 332 is not viable, and they drop BNE-LAX to 5x weekly on the 74E

I think that's the most rational outcome, and given QF's penchant for QFi being sustainable I don't see them maintaining capacity in the face of such an increase by VA.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
EK and EY do a surprisingly brisk trade on Australia-India, but the yields must be atrocious.

Especially when EY offer $600 fares AU-India via AUH! EK's fares are not as low so I think their AU-India traffic is incidental and not something they actively court.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
It is LHR all over again for QF. That's why, IMHO, the 9W codeshares over SIN are the best way forward.

9W only offers DEL/BOM from SIN but I agree it's more than QF could do on its own metal. MH has more options via KUL but that would require QF to start flying there.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 73):
Lots of speculation went on last year in the industry that VA/DL were about to make big changes to its MEL flights, but they held off and ended up conceding defeat in the market after being out-flanked.

I think VA/DL assumed they had more time to figure out how to serve MEL, with UA offering such a poor product. Then UA went and downgauged to 77E which probably gave VA/DL more reason to delay a decision. UA was also distracted by the CO merger issues and it's lacklustre performance of late. They were really outplayed when UA announced direct LAX-MEL flights on 789.
 
DeltaB717
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:43 am

If the 332 rumour is true, could it be they plan to drop down to 3x332 + 4x744 or vice versa? To maintain daily frequency as RyanairGuru says, but reduce the number of bums they need and not have to worry as much about the hit they might have to take from load restrictions?
 
TruemanQLD
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:46 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 74):
I think QF will want to stay on BNE-LAX, and I doubt they will want to go below 5x weekly so that they remain competitive. The question is how much loss are either airline willing to take? IMHO ditching BNE-LAX will send as loud a signal in the QLD market as ending PER-SIN did in WA. If the domestic market is anything to go by, they will both dig in and duel it out with a never ending cycle of worsening yields. If nothing else it will make VA look good, chasing QF off a route. Given the size of the two egos at play, I don't think that Joyce is willing to let that happen, but similarly I can't see Borghetti be too concerned about perpetual losses.

I would be surprised to see QF leave the route, though a drop down to 5/6pw in low season wouldnt surprise me. Given VA's lack of success long haul (MEL-JNB, BNE-HKT, MEL-HKT, SYD-NAN, MEL-LAX), I would bet that QF will 'win' the battle. I mean, VA long-haul has been a failure from the start, they ordered the aircraft and had no idea what to do with them (HKT? NAN? Really, with that layout?) and have had little success with AUH (wasn't there rumour of EY wet-leasing the aircraft for this flight?) and the only place they might break-even is LAX. What happened to all the talk about NRT, HKG etc? It never got anywhere.

Also I doubt QF would put the A332 on BNE-LAX, even if it has the range, IIRC the product is far inferior to the 744 and that is QFs advantage on the route now (given they lose frequency advantage). Unless they were to outfit 2 or 3 A332 in a special low-density layout that would allow them to make the route work (and they wouldnt do this for too many reasons), then it won't happen.

Also, even though QF will lose the advantage on BNE-LAX, they will also gain advantage on MEL-LAX. Even with UA on the route, they are still the much bigger and better-respected player on the route, with the ability to easily capture PER/ADL/HBA feed for their MEL-LAX flight, which is not as easy for UA.
 
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:05 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 74):
I think QF will want to stay on BNE-LAX, and I doubt they will want to go below 5x weekly so that they remain competitive. The question is how much loss are either airline willing to take? IMHO ditching BNE-LAX will send as loud a signal in the QLD market as ending PER-SIN did in WA. If the domestic market is anything to go by, they will both dig in and duel it out with a never ending cycle of worsening yields. If nothing else it will make VA look good, chasing QF off a route. Given the size of the two egos at play, I don't think that Joyce is willing to let that happen, but similarly I can't see Borghetti be too concerned about perpetual losses.

All of that is certainly rolling around my head too, although I do feel both carriers will have to play smarter in future.

QF knows that it is fighting VA on all fronts, but mainly via that airlines partners, including EY, NZ or SQ to name a few. It has a lot more to consider than just one route.

Whether it wishes to lose big $$ to fend off the rival if it knows it can make more $$ elsewhere will be interesting to see, but its more than clear it has VA in a corner when it comes to its 77W International flights. VA has not many options left until it can get 787 or A350's into their fleet, which is when it will be better positioned to compete effectively.
 
jacobchoi
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:34 am

I suppose they could always route the BNE-LAX route via AKL with the A332 if they're that desperate, they did AKL-LAX before so I think they can do it again. But if that's the case, NZ will raise hell and fight back with... hmmm (everything?). It's interesting to speculate though.  
 
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:09 am

Quoting DeltaB717 (Reply 76):
If the 332 rumour is true, could it be they plan to drop down to 3x332 + 4x744 or vice versa?

That what I have been wondering over the past hour of so since I last posted.

Similarly, I still believe that the "pride" of DL serving SYD notwithstanding, it makes a lot of sense for DL and VA to swap. DL have an average load factor of something like 88% on SYD-LAX, compared to ~80% for QF, DL, UA. Making that double daily 77W and flying the smaller aircraft to BNE would make sense. I'm sure it is unviable, though. The biggest risk is the JBA not being renewed, and then DL have cut themselves out of SYD.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 77):
I would be surprised to see QF leave the route, though a drop down to 5/6pw in low season wouldnt surprise me. Given VA's lack of success long haul (MEL-JNB, BNE-HKT, MEL-HKT, SYD-NAN, MEL-LAX), I would bet that QF will 'win' the battle

I agree that history is on QF's side, but it going to be interesting to see what is going to happen going forward.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 77):
VA long-haul has been a failure from the start

As I said in another thread, IMHO Brett Godfrey's biggest mistake was opting for the 77W. It is far too big for VA.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 78):
I do feel both carriers will have to play smarter in future.

I sure hope so



One thing which I'm sure we can expect to see happening at BNE is both carriers routing connections through there. If you wanted the cheapest fare to CBR, ADL, PER, DRW etc, I would expect that to involve a connection in BNE in order to "save" seats on the SYD/MEL routes for the potentially higher yielding local markets in those markets.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
benjjk
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 6:23 am

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 77):
wasn't there rumour of EY wet-leasing the aircraft for this flight?

I believe they currently wet-lease it to do AUH-SIN a couple of times a week.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 80):
As I said in another thread, IMHO Brett Godfrey's biggest mistake was opting for the 77W. It is far too big for VA

100% correct. The future of long-haul VA will be interesting. I doubt it will see a dime of investment until domestic VA is profitable, and that hardly seems a priority of late.
 
tullamarine
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 6:32 am

Quoting benjjk (Reply 81):
As I said in another thread, IMHO Brett Godfrey's biggest mistake was opting for the 77W. It is far too big for VA

100% correct. The future of long-haul VA will be interesting. I doubt it will see a dime of investment until domestic VA is profitable, and that hardly seems a priority of late.

The 77W is too big to be ideal for VA but at the time the choices were limited. The A345 and A346 were offered but more expensive to run. The 77L was also an option but is no cheaper to operate than the 77W and VA didn't need the range for anything other than LAX-MEL.

VA stated last week that they were actively looking at the replacement of their widebody fleet with the 789 and A359 in the frame though you'd expect that the A330NEO would be looked at as a A332 replacement also. JB inspected the A350 in SYD last week and was very impressed (which is what you'd expect him to say). VA's owners have bought both the A359 (SQ/EY) and 789 (SQ/EY/NZ) so it is likely that whoever wins will be offering excellent pricing based on what the owners receive.
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DeltaB717
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 6:38 am

Quoting benjjk (Reply 81):
I believe they currently wet-lease it to do AUH-SIN a couple of times a week.

AUH-KUL over the weekend when the VA AUH schedule requires a very long stop in AUH.
 
jrfspa320
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 6:56 am

Is it possible to upgrade one or two of the newer 332s to 242t? I remember reading it may be possible, that would give the route a fair shot.....although no PE on the A330s!
 
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 7:07 am

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 79):
I suppose they could always route the BNE-LAX route via AKL with the A332 if they're that desperate, they did AKL-LAX before so I think they can do it again

They can but I doubt they will, NZ are to dominant and QF would have a hard time coming back I think, they lost out with the 743 when it was used and then they changed to an early departure ex AKL which I believe cost them premium traffic, someone else may have a shot with a 777 or 787 but QF's 744s were to big and the A332 weight restricted.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):

My opinion is that QF will determine that the 332 is not viable, and they drop BNE-LAX to 5x weekly on the 74E. With a bit of luck common sense will prevail and VA will do the same.

Pretty sure and i've forgotten again but some of the 332s EBO through EBV I think are more capable than the other aircraft, 238T vs 233T I think. These could have done LAX-AKL unrestricted, maybe they could do LAX-BNE? Albeit still restricted but not to badly maybe?!
 
vhebb
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 7:35 am

You guys are forgetting that QF will end the daily DFW-BNE flight next month, so any connections USA-BNE will now be routed through LAX onto the LAX-BNE flight.

I honestly don't think QF are too worried about VA.

QF have said themselves that the USA market is very strong for them.

Rumors were of a new BNE-DFW-BNE service chances are this will be shelved now and the existing daily LAX service will continue.
 
aryonoco
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 7:56 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 82):
VA stated last week that they were actively looking at the replacement of their widebody fleet with the 789 and A359 in the frame though you'd expect that the A330NEO would be looked at as a A332 replacement also.

Actually you bring up a very interesting thought. Doesn't the A330-800neo have the range to fly everywhere VA flys to? I think it can even do MEL-LAX or SYD-AUH. Availability should be much earlier than VA can get its hands on either A350 or the 787. Add to that the fact that it's a much smaller plane, much more in tune with VA's requirements, I think VA should seriously think about it.

It should be possible to get some A330 NEOs in 2018, and it should also be sell their 77Ws as many operate them. This could be the solution to VA's long haul problem.
 
JQflightie
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 7:58 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 48):
Er, actually nothing could be more unlikely ... because it would be illegal. But well done on your daily Jetstar bitch.

Why? QF do this with Cobham, QLink B717, Dressed in QF Uniform, Paid by Cobham. This JQ Idea is the same.

Quoting Razza74 (Reply 60):
PER-SIN is going to be a challenge for QF if they decide to re-enter the market with SQ x 4 with 772/333TZ x 1 with 772JQ x 1 with 3203K x 2 with 320TR x 1 with 320

I think this is a unfair comparison, QF should only be compaired to SQ, the rest are aiming for a differernt demographic.

Quoting Razza74 (Reply 60):
QF could also run 73H PER-KUL, MH is a OW carrier potentially struggling to fill seats and with QF flying PER-KUL they could capture those not wanting to fly MH.

MH is doing fine, looking at the loads, they are quiet full.

I think any international service that QF adds out of PER is better than none, and its great that QF have a Plan B, its better than having no plan at all.
As an employee based in PER i cant see QF adding any A330 flying on the route as there isnt that much 'slack' in the scheduals for International services out of PER.
What i can see happening, but this is limited to being able to operate the route daily, and on B738's;

PER-DPS-SIN
PER-SIN

Posibilities;
PER-CGK-SIN
PER-SIN-HKG
PER-SIN-BKK
PER-KUL
PER-BKI

Now, QF's cost structure is getting better, QF are being proactive and trying to get this under control, many things are happening 'in-house' (of which you will all appreciate that i cannot comment on).
When is my next holiday?
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:47 am

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 88):
Why? QF do this with Cobham, QLink B717, Dressed in QF Uniform, Paid by Cobham. This JQ Idea is the same.

Not really. I honestly have no idea what you have in your contracts about scope, but the point is that Qantas don't - and have never - operated in the 717 size. For Jetstar to operate A320s for Qantas will almost certainly be in breach of the Fair Work Act given that it is unambiguously an attempt to replace union workers who are paid above-market rates with ununionised workers who are paid below-market rates. What Jetstar, as a separate brand, do is their own business, but if QantasGroup started painting kangaroos on the tails of A320s that would wind up in court. QantasGroup would almost certainly loose such a case so long as the current legislation remains in force.
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JQflightie
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:20 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 89):
Not really. I honestly have no idea what you have in your contracts about scope, but the point is that Qantas don't - and have never - operated in the 717 size. For Jetstar to operate A320s for Qantas will almost certainly be in breach of the Fair Work Act given that it is unambiguously an attempt to replace union workers who are paid above-market rates with ununionised workers who are paid below-market rates. What Jetstar, as a separate brand, do is their own business, but if QantasGroup started painting kangaroos on the tails of A320s that would wind up in court. QantasGroup would almost certainly loose such a case so long as the current legislation remains in force.

Not really, Qantas has many different contracts in action, that all have different wages/conditions. Operating in Regional/Domestic and International.
Perfect example is JetConnect, Qantas Cabin Crew Australia, Qantas Domestic Pty Ltd.

Jetstar has also done this a few years back, They had Strategic Aviation (old Air Australia) crew operating on JQ Aircraft.

What do you mean by 'scope'?
When is my next holiday?
 
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qf2220
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:14 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
When putting PER up against SIN, KUL, or BKK, PER compares very, very, very unfavourably.

When was it decided that split terminal operations were a good thing for Australian ports and which planet were they on when they made that decision?

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 70):
A hypothetical PER-BOM flight will still mean that a large portion of the pax will need to transfer to another flight to their destination (HYD/DEL/BLR)

Fair point.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 72):
That's why, IMHO, the 9W codeshares over SIN are the best way forward.

What about a QF/9W JV with QF operating a flight into India with a 9W codeshare on that?

Quoting DeltaB717 (Reply 76):

That I think would just complicate things too much for the JFK tag. Plus the crew costs may lift if the 330 crews and 744 crews are not interchangeable.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 77):
I mean, VA long-haul has been a failure from the start, they ordered the aircraft and had no idea what to do with them

Just to stirr up a bunch of points, I thought at one stage that QF may have been better off to offer to buy the 77Ws from VA and solve 2 problems in one!


And also, this thread has gone quite a way from the original topic, perhaps we should move back into Aust Av?
 
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BNE
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:24 pm

Can't wait for QF to restart PER-SIN even if its on a 738.
There is a chance they could run an A330-200 on the weekends when Qantas would have a bit of a slack on Qantas operating A330s to Melbourne or Sydney.
Perth to Dubai would be good; would be nice on a QF 787, but it will be a few years away.
LAX-BNE on QF will most likely drop to 6 a week but just put all the discount passengers through Qantas and not through Sydney or Melbourne.
VA need to find an aircraft that can do both East coast to Perth but also fly to LA. I remember reading that the 777-300er was a similar price to a 777-200er but you can add more seats in the 300, surely the running cost on a 200 would be better.
Why fly non stop when you can connect
 
tullamarine
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:02 pm

Quoting BNE (Reply 92):
VA need to find an aircraft that can do both East coast to Perth but also fly to LA. I remember reading that the 777-300er was a similar price to a 777-200er but you can add more seats in the 300, surely the running cost on a 200 would be better.

A 77E would have been a terrible alternative for East Coast to PER compared with the A330. It is just too heavy to operate such a route economically .

I'm not sure whether VA acquired a 77W for the same price as it could've got a 77E; it seems unlikely. They probably had the option of a 77L or 77W for the same price and the 77W is the smarter choice here for both capacity and resale reasons.
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DeltaB717
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:52 pm

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 91):
That I think would just complicate things too much for the JFK tag. Plus the crew costs may lift if the 330 crews and 744 crews are not interchangeable.

See your point (I think) on the crew costs, but re the JFK tag they still have the daily 744 on 107 out of SYD.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:58 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 3):
Quoting benjjk (Reply 1):
How do they compete against SQ?

How not? Both airlines are very good, of course, but all things being equal - price, etc - I'll usually pick Qantas.

Just curious, why would you choose QF over SQ?
 
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mariner
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:11 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 95):
Just curious, why would you choose QF over SQ?

I suppose I like the Australia-ness of it.

I love the Asian cultures, but at least in the premium cabins I find Singapore efficient but bland, same-same Emirates, and I like a bit of personality with my airlines. I got over "homogenous international", however luxurious a long time ago - been there, done that.

In the days when I was travelling a lot, and to some obscure and sometimes dangerous places, it was always heart-warming to eventually get on board a Qantas plane somewhere and have the f/a greet me with "G'day, mate, going home?"

I still feel the same way.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
jacobchoi
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:47 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 96):
why would you choose QF over SQ?

Don't know about you Aussies, but do you guys prefer EK or QF? Personally I prefer QF as EK's service is keeping up with its growth rate.
 
tullamarine
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:09 am

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 97):
Don't know about you Aussies, but do you guys prefer EK or QF? Personally I prefer QF as EK's service is keeping up with its growth rate.
SQ and CX are the most consistent. They can be a bit impersonal but always on top of their game.

QF (and VA) ranges from outstanding to ordinary depending on the crew you get on the day.

I have never found EK to be particularly great. Their cabin service is slow and the standard is very inconsistent. I always thought that this was a product of the varied nationalities they hire.

[Edited 2014-08-13 19:28:25]
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DeltaB717
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RE: Qantas Tips Relaunch Of Perth-Singapore Flights

Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:10 am

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 97):
but do you guys prefer EK or QF?

I flew ADL-DXB-GLA last December with EK all the way and returned home LHR-DXB-MEL on QF10. Personally my preference is QF but I wasn't a fan of the A380. So it's an each way bet for me. My girlfriend and I were saying the other day when we go to the UK next we'll most likely go BA which, for me, is probably the best of both worlds!?

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