Max Q
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Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:41 am

I think this will be a real issue as EK starts to retire it's oldest frames.



They will be very hard to unload, who would want them ?
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
Prost
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:55 am

Do your own damned market research Amadeo!  
 
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AirIndia
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:59 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 1):
Do your own damned market research Amadeo!

Posing questions on public fora qualifies as MR  
 
LH648
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 7:26 am

Call Transaero first.

If sanctions will not go too far...
 
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atcsundevil
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 8:43 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 1):
Do your own damned market research Amadeo!

LOL! This was my first thought as well!

I am genuinely curious to see how this goes, seeing as we aren't all that far off from SQ or EK thinking about removing some of the early delivery A380s...SQ in particular since they start offloading frames once they reach 10-years old. My gut tells me they're going to have a damn hard time placing them with permanent customers, and they're going to have to offer them cheap. I could see some ending up with the likes of Transaero or a Corsair-esque LCC balsy enough to fill it to the brim with 28" pitch Y. Because of that, I think that some may very well float from one airline to the next until somebody can make it work. Who knows, maybe DL would take some to replace their B744s. I think that's unlikely, but given their fetish for used, unique aircraft sold for the right price, anything is possible. They could be hot commodities if they're leased or sold cheap enough, but given the difficulties of operating such a unique aircraft, I just can't see them commanding much of a premium.

Either way, I'm not that much of an Airbus fan, but it would be very disappointing to see any of these aircraft get scrapped for at least another decade. One thing is for sure though -- if there's another global economic downturn at any point over the next decade, these things are gonna get parked left and right without hope of placing them with new customers. For everyone's sake of course, let's all hope that doesn't happen!
 
cobra27
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:01 am

They could easily be converted to freighter, if nobody wants pax versions
 
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Navigator
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:12 am

Quoting Max Q (Thread starter):

I Think we are 10 years ahead of this situation. So what Aviation looks like in 10 years from now is pure speculation.

I think charter airlines like Condor and perhaps even one or two US airlines can afford used A380:s in ten years from now.
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Max Q
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:13 am

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 4):
My gut tells me they're going to have a damn hard time placing them with permanent customers

You're right.

Quoting cobra27 (Reply 5):
They could easily be converted to freighter, if nobody wants pax versions

Not easy at all, it would cost a fortune to end up with a very thirsty aircraft aircraft far bigger than the market demands.



I think a used A380 is a non starter.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
PanHAM
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:15 am

...and nobody wants the freighter vesion ither Try to convert the upper floor to hold th loads, the certificaton costs divided over a small number of aircraft. The inlfexibility of orations, limted to a few Airports because lack of availabilit for upper deck loading Equipment.
But it would make a nice new Hotel at Arlanda for instance
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Motorhussy
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:21 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 7):
Not easy at all, it would cost a fortune to end up with a very thirsty aircraft aircraft far bigger than the market demands.

Any aircraft is expensive if you can't fill it. Thirsty? This is a very fuel efficient aircraft offering unsurpassed profit potential when an airline can fill it. Seems you're to be happy only when they can't.
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skipness1E
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:28 am

The A380 is a non starter for any non first tier airline IMHO. What are SQ planning on replacing them with? That would be a new A380 surely, in which case Airbus would be pushing the sale as an additional rather than a replacement perhaps.
 
fcogafa
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:35 am

SIA has 5 on order, are these replacements for their first aircraft? It will be about 10 years once they are delivered.
 
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jetfuel
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:36 am

Coke cans. There will be no more new airlines buying the A380. Most of the airlines that have them now will NOT buy any more. There is no market for them used. New production will caese in 5-10 years. They will become an extinct whale
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
JimJupiter
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:44 am

MOL will, of the price is right. Legacies, say good bye to TATL revenue...  
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
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RWA380
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:46 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 8):
But it would make a nice new Hotel at Arlanda for instance

Now you're thinking, it'll be out of the box thinking that gets rid of these monstrosities.

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 13):
Coke cans

You beat me to it by one reply, I was going to say beer cans, then I thought, aren't these things part carbon fibre? Does that material recycle in any way?
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ZKCIF
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:52 am

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 4):
they're going to have to offer them cheap. I could see some ending up with the likes of Transaero or a Corsair-esque LCC balsy enough to fill it to the brim with 28" pitch Y.

I am sure this way you will exceed emergency exit limitations. i am not sure but i think 31' should be the densest you can pack. and if you can fill the plane it is madly efficient.
 
travelavnut
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:54 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 7):

You're right.

If you know the answer than why ask the question?  
Live From Amsterdam!
 
ist2014
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:55 am

if sanctions are over, Iranian carriers would interested
 
TheCheese
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:58 am

I think that the SQ birds will find a place in the Japanese domestic market. They will end up flying the heavy routes on short hops until they cycle out.

Maybe the Indian or Chinese domestic markets for the EK frames? Where there are a bunch of people who want to go a fairly long distance in a relatively short amount of time, the secondary-market A380s will fill the roles that aging 744s are now.
 
Robbie86
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 10:20 am

I could see a few of the leisure carriers be interested in som used 380's. Scandinavia - Thailand and UK - Florida are two markets that they could find them useful.
 
by738
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 10:23 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 14):
Legacies, say good bye to TATL revenue...

Most of their revenue comes from business class/PE so unless MOL comes up with an amazing business product for the price, I dont think they'll be losing any sleep.
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:16 am

I would be very, very surprised if a large number don't end up as Hajj aircraft operating to JED from Asia/Africa and the ME.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
YLWbased
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:25 am

OX   

YLWbased
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kjellverschuren
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:26 am

Large domestic markets where the high-frequency "small" planes strategy is not required yet?
E.g. China, India, (India-Indonesia?), Brazil.

I bet Intercontinental LCC's can fill them up nicely, although only a couple.
 
bunumuring
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:30 am

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 22):
I would be very, very surprised if a large number don't end up as Hajj aircraft operating to JED from Asia/Africa and the ME.

My thoughts, exactly.
Someone like Garuda could operate a sub fleet... Hadj and super-cheap Bali flights...
And I agree that Transaero would seem a likely customer. They like their ex-Singapore Airlines jets.
Perhaps Air Austral would like a second bite...
And I wouldn't be surprised if Vietnam Airlines as well looks again at the A380...
Off on a tangent, I can see Qantas keeping theirs until they cycle-out/time-out. No secondary market needed with the QF birds. Hopefully QF32's 'Nancy-Bird' can be preserved in Australia (could it land at Longreach for the Qantas Founder's Museum?) at the very least... And I think BA will keep theirs forever too.
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
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jfk777
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:56 am

Aerolinias Argentinas will get some just for the bragging rights to be the first in Latin America to fly it.
 
Planesmart
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:08 pm

Good question. As Boeing have new 748's in storage, and in time, there will be used ones on the market too, something that is taxing them too.

Will be a challenge to find homes for used 787 family and others developed since. New models are very IT intensive, requiring layers of security, knowledge and discipline that tend to be less widely available amongst 2nd and 3rd tier airlines. No problems placing with first tier airlines, but they will be more interested in new.

In response, further industry rationalisation, increased technical partnerships, power by the hour technical support for airfames, and parting of younger aircraft seem likely.
 
ltbewr
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:09 pm

Whoever would buy or lease used A380's would have to have the MX and passenger facilities or access to them as well as experienced pilots to operate them. That could severely limit the used market. Original owners and lessors may have to either run their A-380's to the expected end of their use lives or until major mx checks are due or write-off losses.
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:47 pm

Maybe Emirates and Singapore Airlines will have to make an exception for the A380s and operate them for 15 years or so, or scrap them one by one and use the parts the keep the rest of their fleets going. If you can't sell a plane it's better to keep it running for as long as possible, especially given how much a new one will cost. Plus, in any case there is nothing to replace them with yet with better economics.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:52 pm

With many, if not all A380 leased, EK does not give too much about what will happen with these frames once they are returned to the lessor.

Some German "KG model" co-owners will have a Problem, not EK.

.
As to the use for Hajj flights, most of the origin Airports have not anything Close to the infrastructure required for the A380

[Edited 2014-08-10 05:58:09]
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Chaostheory
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:52 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 25):
Someone like Garuda could operate a sub fleet... Hadj and super-cheap Bali flights...

GA can't make their 77W fleet work.

What makes you think they could operate an A380 fleet effectively?
 
DarkHorse23
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:03 pm

Corsair might buy a couple for their charter flights in the summer to replace their 744s. Other than that it's hard to see who could make them work effectively. I can't see a US carrier ever using an A380 in service and I'd expect the Hadj carriers to pick up some cheap old 744s to continue those flights rather than more expensive and harder to fill A380s.

Maybe SAA will pick up a few cheap 388s if they truly think they need some four holers but I find it highly unlikely. The A380 is a good plane, but it's just too much plane these days.
 
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TS-IOR
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:04 pm

No body talked about scrappers here :-P they'll get them all at the end :-P but more seriously what if Air Berlin get a few wales for PMI and of course the Hajj operators  
 
skipness1E
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:04 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 22):
I would be very, very surprised if a large number don't end up as Hajj aircraft operating to JED from Asia/Africa and the ME.

I would be astonished if that ever happened. You really need to depreciate quite far before your asset is used for seasonal ferry flights of the worlds poorest.

Quoting cobra27 (Reply 5):
They could easily be converted to freighter, if nobody wants pax versions

The word "easily" is being misused here.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 29):
Maybe Emirates and Singapore Airlines will have to make an exception for the A380s and operate them for 15 years or so, or scrap them one by one and use the parts the keep the rest of their fleets going. If you can't sell a plane it's better to keep it running for as long as possible, especially given how much a new one will cost. Plus, in any case there is nothing to replace them with yet with better economics.

THIS, with knobs on!
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:13 pm

Two possibilities

1) UNHCR Air Charters
2) Hajj operators

[Edited 2014-08-10 06:14:44]
 
9MMAR
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:15 pm

A leasing company. Something like CC. I cant't think of any other viable usage than the seasonal hadj charters. Aircraft to be equipped with max 850 seats, all Y config. To be leased by the likes of SV and GA during hadj season.
 
aviationaware
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:15 pm

I doubt there will be any noticeable secondary market.

The general movement of the market has been that more and more airlines order new planes, especially those that have traditionally relied on used frames before, in developing countries and low costers. The trickle down economics of the residual value chain does no longer work as it used to be, and this is somewhat of a problem for owners and lessors.

I expect these problems to be particularly pronounced with the A380, due to the excessive difficulty of operating it. Even if it fits the airline profile.

We will probably see a few oddball A380s in service with secondary users, but I expect the majority of them will be parked and eventually broken down (especially the early overweight ones).

If you look at it, only one lessor (Amedeo/Doric) has taken on a significant amount of them so far. The others have very little exposure in this field if any. Some A380s are on JOLCOs, it will be interesting to see if any of those are returned. I suspect that would hit the JOL market rather heavily, so especially Lufthansa which is heavily reliant on JOLs will more than likely be forced to exercise their call options even if they didn't want to just in order to keep the market and investor trust intact.

I expect there are some nice residual value guarantees in place for the A380s that are leased, so someone is going to pay for it eventually, and if it goes really bad it will hit the airline community by making RVG more expensive; but I wouldn't bet my money on that.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:30 pm

Quoting TS-IOR (Reply 33):
No body talked about scrappers here :-P they'll get them all at the end :-P but more seriously what if Air Berlin get a few wales for PMI and of course the Hajj operators


The times when Condor employed a 747 DUS-PMI and LTU had several L10 flights per day on that route, plus to IBZ are gone. Mallorca wants quality instead of quantity.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
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TS-IOR
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:43 pm

Did EK really start phasing out its early taken wales ?
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 1):
Do your own damned market research Amadeo!

I think only regret both Amadeo and Doric would have is not being an American Inc. Hint, hint C11.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 29):
Maybe Emirates and Singapore Airlines will have to make an exception for the A380s and operate them for 15 years

EK's mx model is not designed to keep older planes. Even the worlds cheapest MROs will charge more to service older planes. There will be more breakdowns forcing EK to keep spare planes, stock parts, AOG teams in a larger scale. Their bottom line takes a hit.

Quoting TheCheese (Reply 19):
Maybe the Indian or Chinese domestic markets for the EK frames? Where there are a bunch of people who want to go a fairly long distance in a relatively short amount of time, the secondary-market A380s will fill the roles that aging 744s are now.

Used A380 cannot beat brand new Chinese built EIB financed A333R.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:13 pm

Quoting cobra27 (Reply 5):
They could easily be converted to freighter, if nobody wants pax versions

Only if they want to use the main deck, which would make for a very inefficient freighter frame.



Quoting fcogafa (Reply 11):
SIA has 5 on order, are these replacements for their first aircraft? It will be about 10 years once they are delivered.

Yes, the five should be replacements for their first five, all of which will be coming off lease by the end of the decade.



Quoting TheCheese (Reply 19):
I think that the SQ birds will find a place in the Japanese domestic market. They will end up flying the heavy routes on short hops until they cycle out.

Completely unlikely, considering NH and JL have retired their 744D fleets and those were fully depreciated. They're not going to invest in A380s, even if extremely cheap.

Quoting TS-IOR (Reply 39):
Did EK really start phasing out its early taken wales ?

EK's first frames do not come of lease until the end of the decade.





Quoting ltbewr (Reply 28):
Whoever would buy or lease used A380's would have to have the MX and passenger facilities or access to them as well as experienced pilots to operate them. That could severely limit the used market.

This is a good point, but it's also an opportunity for someone like Amedeo/Airbus SAS or Lufthansa Technik to set up an MRO / AOG infrastructure for lease-return A380s that smaller / charter carriers could use to maintain such airframes.

I do think that the possibility for these frames to be used for seasonal charter missions (Hajj / Arba'een / summer travel) is not totally unreasonable. Supposedly the lease contracts are such that the airframe is fully paid off two years prior to lease end, so the lessors could conceivably afford to park the planes for part of the year when not used for such events or re-lease them at a rate that makes it economically reasonable for carriers who operate such charters to afford them year-round.
 
brilondon
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:17 pm

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 4):
Either way, I'm not that much of an Airbus fan, but it would be very disappointing to see any of these aircraft get scrapped for at least another decade. One thing is for sure though -- if there's another global economic downturn at any point over the next decade, these things are gonna get parked left and right without hope of placing them with new customers. For everyone's sake of course, let's all hope that doesn't happen!

If the current situations do not improve and Obama doesn't shut his pie hole and stop trying to force nations to accept the American form of democracy, there will be a downturn in the next 2 to 3 years.

Quoting travelavnut (Reply 17):

Quoting Max Q (Reply 7):

You're right.

If you know the answer than why ask the question?  

I think he was looking for more than the obvious answer, that maybe someone on here would have some insight on the future fleet plans of airlines looking for aircraft at the right price.
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:18 pm

Quoting cobra27 (Reply 5):
They could easily be converted to freighter, if nobody wants pax versions

Ajem... converting a 380 to Freighter is not easy and it will lack a huge frontal door...so I don't think they will be converted.

The potential for a secondary market is huge, the trouble is the "sweet spot" on operating costs...if for some weird reason oil goes below 30 usd barrel price... they wont use it because, you can use older more inefficient metal and make profit, if the Oil get more expensive 130 plus a barrel, the operating expense will be enormous and if you don't fill it it will kill you in a month...

the question here is what is the "sweet spot on a A380".... the market exists (Mexico for example) the trouble is you need deep pockets and a good product at the right operating costs to make it work....

But I am an optimist and think that in the future and pax growth will continue and operators will find that airspace, lack of gates and traffic will kill the multigazzillion dollar Single aisle fleets, because if you offer a similar product on a bigger plane with warranted arrival time and gate and customs people will like to use the bigger craft with more space.... then again I might be wrong and JOE AVERAGE will want to be cramped, delayed, paying extra luggage, no inflight service just so save 40 dollars on a ticket.

TRB
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PlymSpotter
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:20 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 34):
I would be astonished if that ever happened. You really need to depreciate quite far before your asset is used for seasonal ferry flights of the worlds poorest.

No doubt the same will have been said about the 744 twenty years ago, yet we now see these operating in high capacity configurations to JED. I should also add that many of these services are year around for Umrah, ultimately I can see these services being suitable for 20+ year old 388s.


Dan  
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KarelXWB
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:32 pm

Quoting Max Q (Thread starter):
EK starts to retire it's oldest frames.

First retirement is due in 2020, with the bulk coming off lease around the middle of the next decade. That's still 6 to 11 years away from today, way too soon to start speculating.

Quoting Max Q (Thread starter):
I think this will be a real issue

I think this discussion would be much easier if you could explain why you think it will be a "real issue".

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 29):
Maybe Emirates and Singapore Airlines will have to make an exception for the A380s and operate them for 15 years or so, or scrap them one by one and use the parts the keep the rest of their fleets going. If you can't sell a plane it's better to keep it running for as long as possible, especially given how much a new one will cost. Plus, in any case there is nothing to replace them with yet with better economics.

Emirates and Singapore Airlines have (most of) their A380s on lease. So they can replace them after 12 years because it's not their problem to find a new home.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 30):
With many, if not all A380 leased, EK does not give too much about what will happen with these frames once they are returned to the lessor.

  

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 30):
Some German "KG model" co-owners will have a Problem, not EK.

Not really. The A380s are fully paid for after 10 years while the remaining 2 years are profits. The investors can step away after 12 years,and the lessor can scrape the aircraft for spare parts.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
DIJKKIJK
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:52 pm

Niche aircraft like the A380 have very poor resale value. Whoever buys them will have to fly them till they get ready for the recycling shop.

Maybe some fly by night Hajj operators may be interested in acquiring cheap, old A380s.
Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 5:07 pm

Quoting DIJKKIJK (Reply 46):
Niche aircraft like the A380 have very poor resale value.

With north of 300 orders, it's not exactly a "niche" aircraft, at least as a widebody model. It's outsold the 747-200B by a third and is three-quarters of the way to the baseline 747-400, DC-10 and 777-200ER and none of those were/are considered "niche" aircraft.



Quoting DIJKKIJK (Reply 46):
Whoever buys them will have to fly them till they get ready for the recycling shop.

Well the A380-800 is designed for a long in-service life, so they'll certainly get their monies' worth.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 5:30 pm

Quoting upperdeck (Reply 12):
Obama returns from vacation

............................Again?   

Quoting upperdeck (Reply 12):
These anti-A380 rants are getting dull and predictable.

The answer of course is - 'depends on the price'.

In all honesty, who's going to buy that thing? Who's going to buy it used?

The unfortunate thing about the A380 and 747-8i is that they were made about 10-15 years too late. The Age of the 4-Holers is done.

At this point, the 787, A350 and 777X are the future.
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frmrCapCadet
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RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 5:30 pm

Should there be no secondary market leasers may come to an agreement with the big users that they get and pay for 3-5 (?) more years out of each frame. After that it may be economical to scrap the plane.
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PlymSpotter
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Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Who Will Buy Used A380's?

Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:01 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 48):
The unfortunate thing about the A380 and 747-8i is that they were made about 10-15 years too late. The Age of the 4-Holers is done.

At this point, the 787, A350 and 777X are the future.

The number of engines is essentially irrelevant, what matters is overall operating cost per seat for an airline's chosen configuration and the market size. If a quad can meet the required capacity more cost effectively then it most likely will be the airline's choice.

Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...

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