United: We Have Full Confidence In IAH

jetblastdubai · Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:10 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 20):
IAH is not a good hub for Latin America. It is a great hub (probably the best hub) for Mexico and not a terrible hub for Central America. For the Caribbean and South America, however, it's no good for anyone east of the Mississippi.

Agree 100%

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 29):
ATL, while in a superior location compared to IAH for North East-Deep Latam connections, serves a tiny O&D base and relies on connections, which aren't necessarily particularly high yielding. ATL is a stronger market than CLT, but Atlanta ain't no Miami.

again, excellent points.

UA and DL will never be able to match the efficient coverage of both Latin and deep South America like AA with their double-barreled combination of MIA and DFW.

The silver lining for UA and *A is that they have an ace-in-the-hole with CM and PTY. For the markets in the eastern third of the U.S., PTY could offer an excellent alternative to MIA as a connecting point to the Deep South and secondary cities in the region that cannot sustain wide-body/long-haul service from the U.S. CM, with their narrow-body fleet and extensive route map in the region, can fill almost any gap in the UA/*A system that UA can't feasibly do from IAH.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=bos-pty...a-pty,+pty-bsb,+IAH,+LIM,+EZE,+SCL

[Edited 2014-08-20 05:12:15]

commavia · Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:24 pm

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 11):
No way IAH is ever dehubbed by UA. No way, no how.

IAH certainly has its shortcomings as a hub. As was already discussed, it's location is ideal for some domestic (southern) and international (Mexico, Central America) connectivity, but not for some other locales. In addition, IAH is certainly hurt by the presence of HOU and Southwest's hub there. In addition, in my experience, United's terminal layout is suboptimal for a hub.

Nonetheless, IAH is overall an excellent hub. It caters to one of the largest, fastest-growing and most economically-dynamic population centers in North America, which also happens to generate a disproportionately large amount of longhaul premium demand (relative to other U.S. metros of similar size). And while Southwest has a hub across town, United has IAH all to itself, with no other major competitive network carrier presence.

All that being said, I think there are definitely some things United can and should be doing to more fully leverage all the opportunities IAH presents, but I agree with the general sentiment of others that to somehow suggest that IAH is in any danger as a hub is just ridiculous.

brilondon · Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:36 pm

Quoting thomasphoto60 (Reply 6):
Thinking the same thing when I read it this morning. Frankly, I just do not trust that snake, Smisek. Not saying anything will happen any most likely nothing will come of it, however I would not be too shocked should something "change" in the future between UA and IAH, be it positive or negative

Like to read that report

I like to know where would they move such an operation if they were to leave IAH? It is not like there are oodles of airports able to handle such an operation. The article is written from an investor point of view who has no idea about the operations of an airline except in how to please investors who just want their investment to pay dividends and rise in value, not what is good in the long haul.

CALMSP · Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:59 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):

Give me a break. The South America and Latin flights are FULL of people making connections from your so called "majorly inconvenient" eastern locations.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:02 pm

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 53):
The South America and Latin flights are FULL of people making connections from your so called "majorly inconvenient" eastern locations.

Source? Given that UA doesn't even fly IAH-BDL, I don't guess there's much EZE-BDL traffic connecting over IAH.

CALMSP · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:09 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 54):

well, anyone with SHARES access can pull connecting traffic info and see that there are all sorts of connections from the east coast. Which is odd, b/c, as you state, it is such a massive inconvenience.

LAXdude1023 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:10 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 54):
I don't guess there's much EZE-BDL traffic connecting over IAH.

Not exactly a good example. That market is tiny.

It would be better to see how many people connect in Houston from places like Boston or NYC to South America.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:20 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 56):
It would be better to see how many people connect in Houston from places like Boston or NYC to South America.

Given that NYC is pretty well-connected to South America, including on UA, I suspect that number is not large. Other than price, why would I want to spend 3 hours on a domestic UA airplane when I can be on a longhaul flight immediately (in NYC) or after a quick flight to NYC or IAD (in BOS)?

jetblue1965 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:30 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 57):

Given that NYC is pretty well-connected to South America, including on UA, I suspect that number is not large. Other than price, why would I want to spend 3 hours on a domestic UA airplane when I can be on a longhaul flight immediately (in NYC) or after a quick flight to NYC or IAD (in BOS)?

Actually UA only has a single EWR-GRU from NYC and nothing else. Although many think EWR-GIG is ripe for the picking with the right 787 configuration.

STT757 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:33 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 54):
Source? Given that UA doesn't even fly IAH-BDL, I don't guess there's much EZE-BDL traffic connecting over IAH.

IAH-BDL launches in October, daily ERJ-175.

http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/arti...n-service-launches-later-this-year

hohd · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:50 pm

IAH has much higher O & D to Central and South America when compared to ATL, probably the same as MIA for Central America, but less for South America with MIA. Why do you think Southwest is desperate to start international services from Houston Hobby. For most, price is king, if competitively priced, everyone from Eastern US will fly via IAH, it is not too much out of the way either. Even for the same price many fly via IAH. Some from IAH choose to fly via ATL, to central America, due to the price.

jetblue1965 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:50 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 47):
Expect to see more 'denials' of shrinkage' but its already occurring and more hubs will be shut down.

And what hubs would those be, Mr. Fortune Teller ? UA throwing away ORD DEN IAD LAX GUM and essentially keep a 3-hub system (SFO IAH EWR) that serves no purpose other than feeding international long-haul ? Why not just directly predict UA will become the next PanAm ?

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:53 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 61):
essentially keep a 3-hub system (SFO IAH EWR) that serves no purpose other than feeding international long-haul ? Why not just directly predict UA will become the next PanAm ?

For those of us who live in outstations where we can fly plentiful mainline to OAL hubs and only 50-seaters to UA hubs, that's pretty much what UA feels like.

strfyr51 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:56 pm

the value in hubbing IAH when ORD is socked by winter storms IAH can and will be taking passengers and re-connecting them to where they need to go..
on the rare occasions when IAH might be hit by storms in the summer ORD is still the alternate connector.
But until all the UNION contracts are settled ?? shifting manpower to the problem cannot be accomplished effectively.
once all the ADMIN stuff is in place? like any good force resources can be brought to bear on any given solution and I have no doubt that Jeff and CO will see what I'm talking about
right now routing is just NOW getting around to maybe substituting across fleets from SCO to SUA. Had the Flight attendant contract been settled , we might have done this by PLAN rather than "happenstance.
We do not YET have the total flexibility to operate as a single UNIT. and that's what will keep us as an "also ran" to winners like Delta.

jetblue1965 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:58 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 62):
For those of us who live in outstations where we can fly plentiful mainline to OAL hubs and only 50-seaters to UA hubs, that's pretty much what UA feels like.

Isn't that wonderful ? Middle of nowhere ville gets 717/738 while key business routes like LGA-ORD or SFO-LAX is all RJ

Rdh3e · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:03 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 46):
People backtrack all the time to get the cheapest fare. I am flying way out of my way today to get a cheap fare for example.

But that's the point. It's a disadvantage because you have to offer the cheapest fare AND a longer routing. So lower revenue and higher costs.

I'm not ringing the death knell, just stating IAH is not perfect, but it is certainly extremely good at what it does and probably makes good money for UA. If not, we are in big trouble.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 54):
Given that UA doesn't even fly IAH-BDL

Quoting STT757 (Reply 59):
IAH-BDL launches in October, daily ERJ-175.

You beat me to it STT.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:12 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 64):
Middle of nowhere ville gets 717/738 while key business routes like LGA-ORD or SFO-LAX is all RJ

Do you prefer a UA 739 or anybody's E75? To me, that choice is pretty easy.

jetblue1965 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:15 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 66):
Do you prefer a UA 739 or anybody's E75? To me, that choice is pretty easy.

yea, I'll pick the plane where I have space to stow my big rollerboard in the overhead bin than force gate check it for anyone who is not elite

CALMSP · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:17 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 67):

often times you are forced to gate check your bag if youre not elite on a mainline plane as it is. and then its off to baggage claim instead of getting it at the gate.

I'd take the E70/75 over mainline any day.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:22 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 67):
I'll pick the plane where I have space to stow my big rollerboard in the overhead bin than force gate check it for anyone who is not elite

Assuming competent ground handling, it takes so long for non-elites to get off of a 739 that your bag ought to be waiting for you at baggage claim.

jetblue1965 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:28 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 69):
Assuming competent ground handling,

That's a huge assumption. Bags get lost, damaged by mishandling, or worst, have contents stolen.

Thomaas · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:39 pm

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 53):
Give me a break. The South America and Latin flights are FULL of people making connections from your so called "majorly inconvenient" eastern locations.

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 53):
well, anyone with SHARES access can pull connecting traffic info and see that there are all sorts of connections from the east coast. Which is odd, b/c, as you state, it is such a massive inconvenience.

No one would pay a yield premium for such a connection. The issue is not that people won't connect in IAH, the issue is that if they do it will be at a discount over better alternatives through more conveniently located hubs.

Thomaas · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:46 pm

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 68):
I'd take the E70/75 over mainline any day.

Amen, it's already hard to find room for your carry-on on mainline. Add to that a 3x3 layout in Y which is never better than 2x2. F is also better on the Ejets, 2x1 is far better than 2x2.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:49 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 70):
That's a huge assumption.

. . . especially on UA, which is virtually always the worst legacy in mishandled baggage numbers.

CALMSP · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:50 pm

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 71):

no one? how do you know this?

jetblue1965 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:52 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 73):
. . . especially on UA, which is virtually always the worst legacy in mishandled baggage numbers.

Even if the others have lower mishandled baggage numbers, being able to carry-on is still far safer than checking bag at any airline.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:56 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 75):
Even if the others have lower mishandled baggage numbers, being able to carry-on is still far safer than checking bag at any airline.

That's an interesting point. Assuming some decently high chance of having to gate check, is that the case? It may be that gate checks are more likely to be mishandled; frankly, they always give me more heartburn than checking at the ticket counter.

Rdh3e · Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:58 pm

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 74):
no one? how do you know this?

Obviously this is an exaggeration, but in all other things equal people do not pay more for an itinerary that is less convenient. Can we all agree on that?

CALMSP · Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:29 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 77):

No. It all depends on the passenger. If a passenger is a STAR guy, more than likely will pay more to fly to IAH versus being a nobody on a SKYTeam flight through ATL.

what is defined as "less convenient" itinerary? Simply looking at a map on where one is going?

This whole notion of IAH being a terrible hub for the America's is the most ridiculous comment I think I may have seen on here.

Rdh3e · Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:47 pm

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 78):
No. It all depends on the passenger. If a passenger is a STAR guy, more than likely will pay more to fly to IAH versus being a nobody on a SKYTeam flight through ATL.

All other things equal
English[edit]
Adverb[edit]
all else being equal (not comparable)

(modal) Holding other conditions unchanged; ceteris paribus.

And yes, more convenient generally means, less trip duration, shorter layovers etc etc etc. Having a more direct routing will generally result in shorter trip durations, which translates directly to better convenience ALL OTHER THINGS EQUAL.

toxtethogrady · Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:53 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 48):
United flies to LNK and AA doesn't.

That's got to be a recent development, as AA had the route. LNK was encouraging Continental to bite on subsidized ERJ service to IAH, but CO turned them down and AA jumped on it.

toxtethogrady · Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:56 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 54):
Given that UA doesn't even fly IAH-BDL, I don't guess there's much EZE-BDL traffic connecting over IAH.

That's about to change. I would also expect a few other missing points in the Northeast will be ripe for an E175 from IAH.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 80):
That's got to be a recent development, as AA had the route.

Are you sure you aren't confusing LNK with various other small towns in that part of the world (GRI, MHK, COU, etc.)? I can remember UA* service to LNK in the mid-2000s.

toxtethogrady · Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:59 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 61):
And what hubs would those be, Mr. Fortune Teller ? UA throwing away ORD DEN IAD LAX GUM and essentially keep a 3-hub system (SFO IAH EWR) that serves no purpose other than feeding international long-haul ? Why not just directly predict UA will become the next PanAm ?

Whoops, you just gave away Smisek's game plan. Wow!

Rdh3e · Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:01 pm

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 80):
That's got to be a recent development, as AA had the route. LNK was encouraging Continental to bite on subsidized ERJ service to IAH, but CO turned them down and AA jumped on it.

I'm not sure where you're getting your information, but UA has been serving LNK since at least August 2003 (as far back as my dataset goes). While in that time AA was serving LNK but dropped their service in September of 2004 and never resumed it.

[Edited 2014-08-20 09:03:05]

LAXdude1023 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:10 pm

Quoting hohd (Reply 60):
IAH has much higher O & D to Central and South America when compared to ATL, probably the same as MIA for Central America,

Correct on the ATL part, but WAY off on the MIA part. MIA-Central America is much larger than IAH-Central America. Even MIA-MEX is larger than IAH-MEX though both are massive markets.

toxtethogrady · Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:12 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 82):
Are you sure you aren't confusing LNK with various other small towns in that part of the world (GRI, MHK, COU, etc.)?

I tried to avoid that, but may not have succeeded. On that subject, AA in bankruptcy took the money from places like GCK, GRI, MHK, COU, SGF, SPI etc., etc. in exchange for 1-2 RJ's a day to DFW. Most of those passengers connect to other points in AA's system, which fills up seats that O&D's from the DFW metro don't fill. It could have been that way at IAH. It's more a function of UA's dysfunctionality than IAH's lack of convenience that those passengers are going elsewhere.

LAXdude1023 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:16 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 57):
Given that NYC is pretty well-connected to South America, including on UA,

You would actually be wrong.

NYC actually contributes quite a bit to IAH's deep South America flights. Not nearly as much the Northern South America flights. People will go out of the way for their miles.

jetblastdubai · Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:24 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 84):
I'm not sure where you're getting your information, but UA has been serving LNK since at least August 2003 (as far back as my dataset goes). While in that time AA was serving LNK but dropped their service in September of 2004 and never resumed it.

United has been serving LNK since the 60's and maybe earlier. They had 727s to DEN and ORD regularly back then parked next to Frontier's Convair 580s.

AA added GRI-DFW a while ago but that folded soon afterwards.

I'm a born and bred Cornhusker and I don't ever remember AA flying into LNK. No one currently flies south out of LNK so UAX to IAH would be huge.

[Edited 2014-08-20 09:36:58]

LAXdude1023 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:43 pm

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 86):
I tried to avoid that, but may not have succeeded. On that subject, AA in bankruptcy took the money from places like GCK, GRI, MHK, COU, SGF, SPI etc., etc. in exchange for 1-2 RJ's a day to DFW. Most of those passengers connect to other points in AA's system, which fills up seats that O&D's from the DFW metro don't fill. It could have been that way at IAH. It's more a function of UA's dysfunctionality than IAH's lack of convenience that those passengers are going elsewhere.

Im sorry but youre way off.

First off, DFW O&D to those markets is far larger than IAH to the same. DFW is the single largest O&D market to GCK, and its close to the top MHK, GRI, and SGF.

Then, Geography does play a difference. For the same reason that there are no RJ's from DFW to deep Mexico like there are from IAH (ie distance and larger market just like the examples above), there are no need for RJ's from Houston to those smaller midwest markets. They are closer to DFW and less expensive to opperate.

DFW simply has a lot more ties to the Great Plains and the Heartland than IAH does. Look at some larger O&D markets.

DFW-DSM: 168 passengers
IAH-DSM: 65

DFW-CID: 88 passengers
IAH-CID: 22

DFW-MHK: 35 passengers
IAH-MHK: 3

DFW-RAP: 50 passengers
IAH-RAP: 18

DFW-FSD: 62 passengers
IAH-FSD: 30

DFW-FAR: 50 passengers
IAH-FAR: 19

DFW-COU: 44 passengers
IAH-COU: NA

DFW-EVV: 40 passengers
IAH-EVV: 10

I came up with one city that is served from DFW but not IAH where IAH had a larger (albeit very slightly) local market. Thats MSN.

The trend is crystal clear. DFW has more connections to the Heartland, more O&D to the Heartland, and a better geography to serve the Heartland. There is a reason why DFW has the flights it does and IAH has the flights it does.

Cubsrule · Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:11 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 89):
The trend is crystal clear. DFW has more connections to the Heartland, more O&D to the Heartland, and a better geography to serve the Heartland. There is a reason why DFW has the flights it does and IAH has the flights it does.

Your numbers are what they are, but doesn't service lead to traffic? I bet that if they had similar service levels, markets like FSD and FAR would have similar levels of traffic.

LAXdude1023 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:18 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 90):

Your numbers are what they are, but doesn't service lead to traffic? I bet that if they had similar service levels, markets like FSD and FAR would have similar levels of traffic.

I dont think so. The main reason is that even when IAH has had service to markets the same as DFW, those from DFW generate far larger numbers. Look at DSM, both have service and its far larger from DFW. Look at CID. DFW-CID is a 5x daily market, IAH-CID was tried at daily and failed.

There is just no getting past it. There is a reason DFW can support smaller markets in the Midwest and IAH cant. Geography is one, but the biggest reason is that there are more ties from DFW to those places. Its an inverse relationship to Central America in the DFW/IAH saga.

toxtethogrady · Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:29 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 89):
DFW simply has a lot more ties to the Great Plains and the Heartland than IAH does. Look at some larger O&D markets.

DFW simply has the nonstops to those places that IAH doesn't. Only CID and DSM are served from IAH nonstop. The rest? Well, they have to connect somewhere.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 91):
The main reason is that even when IAH has had service to markets the same as DFW, those from DFW generate far larger numbers.

Exceptions include IAH to Mobile, AL.

LAXdude1023 · Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:42 pm

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 92):
DFW simply has the nonstops to those places that IAH doesn't. Only CID and DSM are served from IAH nonstop. The rest? Well, they have to connect somewhere.

And despite both being served, DFW still generates far greater O&D numbers.

There is a reason DFW has nonstops to those places and IAH doesnt. It has nothing to do with UA. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there are more ties between DFW and those places and DFW has a better geographic location.

Just as IAH is a larger international market internationally, DFW is a larger market domestically. IAH has 4.1 million O&D passengers a year vs. DFW's 2.75 million on an international level. But domestically, its entirely different. DFW has about 21.5 million O&D passengers vs. IAH's 14.5 million.

Why is this so hard to grasp?

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 92):
Exceptions include IAH to Mobile, AL.

Mobile isnt in the Midwest. IAH will have more O&D to virtually every Gulf city except TPA.

COflyerBOS · Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:47 am

Why is it so hard for people to realize that DFW has better numbers to Midwestern cities? There are plenty of reasons. Here are some;

1) Geography. DFW is closer to those places

2) Migration. See #1 for a reason.

3) Business. DFW is a regional domestic powerhouse with biz ties to those places.

LAXdude1023 · Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:57 am

Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 94):

Exactly.

Look at it this way, DFW and Houston are the capitals of their regions (the Gulf Coast and Great Plains respectively). DFW is where the world meets the Great Plains and Houston is where the world meets the Gulf. As such Houston will have more ties with the Gulf region and DFW will with the Great Plains. The Great Plains is a much bigger geographic region which gives DFW a higher volume of airports to pull.

Cubsrule · Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:40 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 95):
DFW and Houston are the capitals of their regions (the Gulf Coast and Great Plains respectively).

Can you explain to me how DFW is the "capital" of a region that includes FSD and FAR? If you mean "most connected big city," I'd probably put DFW in at best fourth in that regard (behind Denver, Minneapolis and Chicago). If we were talking about ICT and OKC, I'd agree completely with you.

LAXdude1023 · Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:54 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 96):

I'll let this article explain it:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotk...owth-will-be-over-the-next-decade/

jetblue1965 · Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:04 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 97):

Your article link shows Dallas is the largest metro within the region defined as Great Plains, but the region is so vast that the other hubs being mentioned are more convenient for certain chunks of the region.

eg FAR-MSP-BOS makes far more sense than FAR-DFW-BOS

but it's quite interesting to see them delineate IAH to a totally different region

toxtethogrady · Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:22 am

Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 94):
3) Business. DFW is a regional domestic powerhouse with biz ties to those places.

I've seen many claims that Dallas is a business hub and a corporate headquarters, yet Houston is home to more large companies than Dallas, and it has major operating divisions for just about all of the ten largest oil companies in the world. Without the TV series, Dallas' reputation would not be as well established.

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