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enilria
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:38 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 49):
And the coveted ANet "Crystal Ball Award" may be going to enilria this week.

It's easy to predict an existing trend continuing. What is surprising is the number of people who think a trend will suddenly change to go the opposite way. Those types of changes are much rarer. Additionally, if WN was going to add a bunch of ATL flights they would have a big announcement and crow about their commitment to ATL. They wouldn't just drop it into a schedule change blog. The deafening silence as they break the minimum gate use commitment in ATL is pretty telling.

To me when Kelly said this back in March the die was pretty well cast:
"“Fewer departures may lead to a need for fewer gates” at Hartsfield-Jackson, Kelly said. Southwest-AirTran occupies gates at the airport’s Concourse C and Concourse D, but it’s possible Southwest could eventually decide to pull out of Concourse D. “It would be nice to be all consolidated in one terminal,” Kelly said."

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/03...outhwest-effect.html#storylink=cpy


On another note, why does a.net now open up a page from Parenting Magazine on pregnancy every time I refresh?  
 
Cubsrule
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:41 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
To me when Kelly said this back in March the die was pretty well cast:

After accounting for 717 to 73G/8 changes, how many gates does (will) WN have on C?

[Edited 2014-08-25 07:41:42]
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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enilria
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:52 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 51):

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
To me when Kelly said this back in March the die was pretty well cast:

After accounting for 717 to 73G/8 changes, how many gates does (will) WN have on C?

All I know is what their own page says:
http://www.southwest.com/html/air/airport-information.html

Concourse C
Gates
C:1-7,9, 10,12,14, 16,20,22 = 14 gates

Concourse C,D,F
Gates:
C: 1-7, 9,10,12, 13,15,17, 19,21 = +5 gates
D:1,1a, 2-6,8,9, 11,11a =+11 gates

30 gatesx600 seats minimum use per gate=18,000 seats/day. In December they hit 17,294 which would mean they would have to give up 2 gates using the aggregate math.

Of course, that is all in the aggregate. I believe they are technically required to meet that gate by gate which they probably are already breaking willy nilly. My guess is that a strict interpretation of the individual gate rules would require them to give up essentially the entire D concourse. DL is happy not to force the issue for now since WN is essentially paying a bill for nothing that would otherwise fall to Delta, but if Eastern or Spirit tried to grab 5 gates they would suddenly demand all the surplus gates.
 
unmlobo
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:56 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 47):
Quick look looks like ATL is losing SJU and all International flying.

Not completely true, PUJ and CUN still remain from ATL in the March schedule.
Went to school in ABQ, former airline employee. Now living in Dallas
 
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enilria
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting unmlobo (Reply 53):
Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 47):
Quick look looks like ATL is losing SJU and all International flying.

Not completely true, PUJ and CUN still remain from ATL in the March schedule.

It would have been pretty surprising to see them dropped going into March. SJU is surprising too, but it is not really a spring break market. Again, expect more to go post-Easter from ATL.
 
ouboy79
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:06 pm

Not that many here will care, but OKC drops below 20 departures for the first time in awhile. Losing AM flights to MDW and STL with the DAL AM flight being moving up 2 hours earlier. Something tells me they are trying to funnel that early connecting traffic down south before going anywhere. Don't really like the change because it means early options to the Great Lakes area from OKC are out of the question now.
 
sdoyon
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:10 pm

Blog post is up:

"No permanent new nonstop markets are included in this schedule extension, although a couple of interesting new seasonal markets are included—Dallas/Love to Panama City on Saturdays, as well as first-ever New Orleans-San Antonio service. You’ll notice that many of the new nonstop market additions only operate on Saturdays. We all know traffic patterns are different on the weekends than they are during the week, and we’re taking greater advantage of our ability to react to it!"

http://www.blogsouthwest.com/march-2015-base-schedule-available

Interesting to note that there is no PDF with this extension. Was looking forward to see all those new Saturday routes.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:11 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 52):
I believe they are technically required to meet that gate by gate which they probably are already breaking willy nilly.

Delta probably is too, which is all the more reason for them to lay low for now.

Quoting enilria (Reply 52):
30 gatesx600 seats minimum use per gate=18,000 seats/day. In December they hit 17,294 which would mean they would have to give up 2 gates using the aggregate math.

True, but it's a long way from there to having to give up all of D. They need only an average of a little more than 4 flights per day per gate to meet the 600 seat threshold. A comfortable level of utilization at an ATL-sized station for WN is around 8 flights per day per gate, which is more than 1,000 seats.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MSYtristar
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:02 pm

MKE-MSY is going from Saturday-only to daily with this new schedule. It's likely just a seasonal change, but nice to see in any case. I'm confident the new MSY-SAT seasonal service will go year-round.
 
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SANFan
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:04 pm

Also mentioned in the blog:

Quote:
Four nonstop markets will be permanently eliminated. Nonstop service between Albuquerque and Seattle/Tacoma will end, after nearly 16 years of operation.

So another withdrawal from the PNW, this one (again?) at the hands of AS... WN really doesn't seem to want to deal with certain things up in that corner of the country.

bb
 
SWADawg
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:16 pm

Just eliminating the overlap prior to the Alaska Merger.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:19 pm

"as we focus on fine-tuning an Atlanta schedule that serves both our local and connecting Customers." - from the blog post.

That may suggest what enilria has been saying for a while about gate usage and minimum pax requirements. Get flight levels down to where WN needs only their C gates in ATL, excepting international arrivals, which may be tenuous going forward. 14 gates x 8 average departures a day: 104 daily flights.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
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SANFan
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting SWADawg (Reply 60):
Just eliminating the overlap prior to the Alaska Merger.

Well, the wait is over for this post (or similar) to appear in the thread. But it's my fault, I mentioned the "AS"-word!  

But seriously, WN doesn't seem to want anything to do with all that DL/AS/SEA thing and they just cede most markets that become involved in it. (And unless I'm mistaken, SEA is still a very expensive airport which WN does not care for.)

A notable exception however is SAN-SEA where WN recently jumped into the deep end by taking on both AS and DL at the same time. But my feeling is that is more of a "SAN-expansion"-thing than a "SEA-centric" move. Just my opinion.

bb
 
gr8slvrflt
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:47 pm

WN will have 18 gates on C when the construction is finished ~
I work for Southwest, but the views expressed are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Southwest.
 
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mariner
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
3) Southwest has a deal with Funjet as part of Southwest Vacations that does not allow the WN brand to do business with Apple.

But Southwest is doing business with Apple, as at MKE:

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/mke-milwaukee/

MKE-MBJ and PUJ.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
iowaman
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:07 pm

OMA-MCO comes back Saturday only:
0640-1040

MCO-OMA:
1745-2010

Also some MSP Saturday only routes:

MSP-MCO:
1100-1510

MCO-MSP:
2050-2320

MSP-RSW:
0700-1130

RSW-MSP:
2045-2335

MSP-TPA:
1210-1615

TPA-MSP:
1515-1740
 
runningonempty
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:19 pm

Exciting and quite surprised to see ISP-RSW reinstated most likely seasonally. It did pretty poorly last year, so they may be trying again with what seems to be lower fares.
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:38 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 46):
WN must now be showing future routes on the route map ahead of release of schedules because TUS-HOU definitely shows but there is no nonstop service on the route on this new March 7 schedule.

So is this route actually being added or not? I know that before the merger CO used to runs 737s on IAH-TUS during the winter, but not anymore. I always figured we'd be more likely to see WN add DAL-TUS.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
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enilria
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:45 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 64):
But Southwest is doing business with Apple, as at MKE:
http://www.applevacations.com/flight...ukee/

Anybody can buy tickets as a travel agent, but I was just told by WN that they can't do block seat deals or charters with Apple as a result of their Funjet contract. So that would mean this is fully at risk for WN.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 57):
True, but it's a long way from there to having to give up all of D. They need only an average of a little more than 4 flights per day per gate to meet the 600 seat threshold. A comfortable level of utilization at an ATL-sized station for WN is around 8 flights per day per gate, which is more than 1,000 seats.

But there is already a public statement from Kelly saying they would prefer to give up the D gates and effectively don't need them. It seems inevitable to me. Why would we distrust a blunt statement like that when it fits with current trends in terms of departures?

[Edited 2014-08-25 12:46:55]
 
Cubsrule
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:48 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 68):
But there is already a public statement from Kelly saying they would prefer to give up the D gates and effectively don't need them. It seems inevitable to me.

You are missing the distinction between wanting to surrender D and having to surrender D. The former could occur at twice (or more) the level of service as the latter.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:53 pm

Quoting RunningOnEmpty (Reply 66):
Exciting and quite surprised to see ISP-RSW reinstated most likely seasonally. It did pretty poorly last year, so they may be trying again with what seems to be lower fares.

What evidence do you have that it did poorly last year? Merely asking, not doubting.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
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enilria
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:56 pm

We will also eliminate nonstop service between Atlanta and three airports: San Juan, Aruba, and Montego Bay. Those three Caribbean markets will keep other nonstop service to the U.S. Mainland, so connectivity to the rest of the Southwest network should be the same, as we focus on fine-tuning an Atlanta schedule that serves both our local and connecting Customers. - See more at: http://www.blogsouthwest.com/march-2...vailable/#sthash.SV3aI6D1.dpuf

Eliminating Montego Bay for March seems bordering on stupid. It makes no sense to keep a Spring Break market like that in the network and then drop it just as it hits the height of peak season.

Beyond that, I don't think they are finding that South Florida to the Caribbean is going to work any better than Atlanta. It's all about sticking to their hoped for strategy which is all about emphasizing the "core" WN markets they think they have strength in and continuing to pluck stuff from the AirTran network to fund it.

For example, here are the LFs on SJU to ATL and FLL this year. I think it is easily provable that ATL is better than FLL, but they cut ATL.

Sep13 FLL 33% ATL 89%
Oct13 FLL 47 ATL 86
Nov13 FLL 58 ATL 75
Dec13 FLL 75 ATL 82
Jan14 FLL 63 ATL 80
Feb14 FLL 48 ATL 74
Mar14 FLL 68 ATL 87
Apr14 FLL 63 ATL 83
 
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mariner
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Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:04 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 68):
Anybody can buy tickets as a travel agent, but I was just told by WN that they can't do block seat deals or charters with Apple as a result of their Funjet contract. So that would mean this is fully at risk for WN.

They're not doing charters - the MKE stuff is "subject to government approval" which doesn't apply to the charters - but Apple has at least CPA's on all the routes that appear in its schedule, and sometimes more than CPA's.

The CPA may be for minority percentage capacity - less than 50% - but it is still business, although I suppose Southwest could pretend they are "Southwest initiated" routes - LOL - although Airtran flew 'em all, and most as pure charter.

But I thought Apple and Funjet signed a collaborative deal a couple of years ago?

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
AWACSooner
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:07 pm

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 55):
Not that many here will care, but OKC drops below 20 departures for the first time in awhile. Losing AM flights to MDW and STL with the DAL AM flight being moving up 2 hours earlier. Something tells me they are trying to funnel that early connecting traffic down south before going anywhere. Don't really like the change because it means early options to the Great Lakes area from OKC are out of the question now.

Goes with my wife's biggest complaint...OKC routinely gets the shaft when it comes to WN scheduling...add, subtract, hold the planes at their origins for an hour or two because it's the last flight of the day and those eight connecting pax have to get home.
 
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johnboy
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:23 pm

Quoting SWADawg (Reply 60):
Just eliminating the overlap prior to the Alaska Merger.

I saw what you did there.


 
 
RL757PVD
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:28 pm

The daily PVD-RSW and PVD-PBI is back for the season. Along with the 3rd TPA and 5th MCO.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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johnboy
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:32 pm

Quoting iowaman (Reply 17):
As of Fall last year HOU was at 161 daily departures, so it certainly plays a roll similar to that of BWI and MDW. I would expect this to increase once the international terminal is done.

Thanks for the update. I honestly had no idea that HOU was *that* big a hub in WN's network (most likely because i've never stopped/transferred there on any of my WN flights before).

I guess I was wondering about more of the mid-sized markets that currently aren't connected with n/s to HOU (specifically I was thinking of SDF, since there aren't geographically "logical" flights to connect to MSY, Texas, etc since the BHM flights were cut).

Just seems like a good growth area, especially in light of the new international terminal coming online.
 
phxtravelboy
Posts: 337
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:42 am

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:48 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 58):
MKE-MSY is going from Saturday-only to daily with this new schedule. It's likely just a seasonal change, but nice to see in any case

Indeed. Great news! We were discussing this market in the MKE thread and I was wondering why it's not daily.
 
Mexicana757
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:40 am

Looks like MDW-CUN goes from 1x daily to 3x daily.    Both MDW-MBJ and PUJ go from daily to 8x weekly, extra flight operated on Saturdays.

MDW FIS gates are going to get a work out on Saturdays of Spring 2015.
7- WN, 4- PD, 2-Y4 and 1-F9.
 
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SANFan
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:47 am

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 67):
So is this route actually being added or not?.... I always figured we'd be more likely to see WN add DAL-TUS.

TUS-Hobby is definitely not being added on the March 2015 schedule extension -- not even Sat only. As far as the future, I'm as curious as you about why the route shows up on the WN map...

I think DAL is too space-constricted for WN to add everything they'd like to there so I don't see TUS-DAL real high on that priority list right now. But I definitely think TUS-HOU makes sense, assuming WN sees traffic that warrants expansion out of Tucson.

bb
 
usflyguy
Topic Author
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:22 am

Quoting Mexicana757 (Reply 78):
MDW FIS gates are going to get a work out on Saturdays of Spring 2015.
7- WN, 4- PD, 2-Y4 and 1-F9.

MDW now has 3 FIS gates so that's 4.5 flights a day/gate... and I don't think timing will be too much of an issue as 3 of the flights will be WN from the same destination.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
Mexicana757
Posts: 2672
Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2001 3:21 pm

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:28 am

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 80):

MDW now has 3 FIS gates so that's 4.5 flights a day/gate... and I don't think timing will be too much of an issue as 3 of the flights will be WN from the same destination.

Did A1 finally get connected to the FIS?
 
User avatar
ERJ170
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RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:43 am

As always, nothing new for RDU... Come ci comme ca...
Aiming High and going far..
 
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knope2001
Posts: 3020
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:05 am

Quoting phxtravelboy (Reply 77):
Indeed. Great news! We were discussing this market in the MKE thread and I was wondering why it's not daily.

This schedule includes the MKE spring break peak, with each Saturday featuring 33 nonstops to warm destinations on Southwest. That includes 20 nonstops to Florida alone each Saturday -- with some 738's mixed in that's roughly equal in capacity to a dozen 767-300's heading to Florida.

Overall MKE is back up to 44/day on weekdays with the new schedule.
 
phxtravelboy
Posts: 337
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:42 am

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:15 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 83):
This schedule includes the MKE spring break peak, with each Saturday featuring 33 nonstops to warm destinations on Southwest. That includes 20 nonstops to Florida alone each Saturday -- with some 738's mixed in that's roughly equal in capacity to a dozen 767-300's heading to Florida.

Overall MKE is back up to 44/day on weekdays with the new schedule.

Wow! Thanks for checking on that. 20 on Saturdays to FL? I wonder if MKE has ever had that much nonstop service to the Sunshine state on any day. That's great news. I'm also pleased to see WN will be up to 44/weekday too.
 
toxtethogrady
Posts: 1861
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2000 12:33 pm

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting johnboy (Reply 76):
I honestly had no idea that HOU was *that* big a hub in WN's network (most likely because i've never stopped/transferred there on any of my WN flights before).

If no one was paying attention to HOU prior to now, the jump in the passenger numbers for July should change some minds.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26152
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:36 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 71):
For example, here are the LFs on SJU to ATL and FLL this year. I think it is easily provable that ATL is better than FLL, but they cut ATL.

FLL is two-thirds the distance, probably has similar or higher average fares and the local markets are not comparable (SoFla-San Juan is something like 1,000+ PDEW; I'd be shocked if Atlanta can even produce 15% of that).

Assuming the lost Atlanta capacity isn't moving elsewhere, it makes perfect sense. Funnel more connecting traffic through FLL to fill the plane on top of the strong local market; rather than fill a plane with connections via Atlanta.
a.
 
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OzarkD9S
Posts: 5636
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:17 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 86):


Assuming the lost Atlanta capacity isn't moving elsewhere, it makes perfect sense. Funnel more connecting traffic through FLL to fill the plane on top of the strong local market; rather than fill a plane with connections via Atlanta.


And the intentions WN has stated regarding FLL makes building that market over ATL common sense. WN will NEVER get the market share in ATL they could organically achieve in FLL.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
iowaman
Posts: 3864
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 2:29 am

RE: WN Schedule Extension 8/25

Mon Sep 01, 2014 5:49 am

It looks like PWM-MCO starts on Saturdays in March. IIRC FL flew this daily.

Speaking of which, does anyone have access to DOT data for loads on the former FL cities that are smaller stations? Cities such as PWM, GRR, FNT, ICT, DSM, RIC, MEM, PNS. Particularly the new routes such as GRR-STL, PNS-HOU, DSM-LAS, etc.

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