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enilria
Topic Author
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T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:04 pm

Load Factors:
HND-SEA
2013
JUN 56%
JUL 72%
AUG 74%
SEP 62%
OCT 33%
NOV 34%
DEC 61%
2014
JAN 66%
FEB 52%

The DL LAX-HND is 25 points fuller. I don't see this lasting.
 
sw733
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:06 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
OCT 33%
NOV 34%

Yikes! I do wish I had been on one of those flights, though - sounds comfy!
 
MAH4546
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:08 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
The DL LAX-HND is 25 points fuller. I don't see this lasting.

But DL quietly applied with DOT to make the authority non-gateway restrictive so that LAXHND could become HNLHNL.

I think DL would consolidate and make SEAHND stronger before dropping it.
a.
 
CV880
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:10 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

Load Factors:
HND-SEA
2013
JUN 56%
JUL 72%
AUG 74%
SEP 62%
OCT 33%
NOV 34%
DEC 61%
2014
JAN 66%
FEB 52%

Maybe a little premature to call it a failure in that connectivity via SEA has improved quite a bit since March 2014.
 
32andBelow
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:14 pm

Quoting CV880 (Reply 3):
Maybe a little premature to call it a failure in that connectivity via SEA has improved quite a bit since March 2014.

Wasn't their code share connectivity through AS?
 
Prost
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:19 pm

What I have heard from management is that they intend to keep HND going as DL realizes they won't get any additional slots soon. DL is trying to get the US/Japan to have full open skies agreements so that they can have any flight/any time operating from HND or NRT.

Whether you agree or disagree with the sentiment, and the US does have our issues, especially when it is aviation related, at least our airports are open to all carriers, foreign or domestic. I'm curious if HND slots would be as costly as LHR slots if it was a free and open market?
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:21 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 5):


DL is trying to get the US/Japan to have full open skies agreements so that they can have any flight/any time operating from HND or NRT.

Good luck with that.
"My soul is in the sky". -Pyramus- A Midsummer's Night Dream
 
roseflyer
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:29 pm

Well I think it is certainly getting better. Economy is sold out 3 of the next 6 days with the other days only having a few full fare seats left. Business is available most days, but still that should result in 90+% load factors. This is peak season, so numbers will fall off in the fall. I think it depends on how far it falls as to whether or not DL will cancel or curtail the route.

October, November and February usually have relatively low load factors for leisure travel. Business travel remains, but leisure travel numbers are way off. It looks like the route took some time to pick up.
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enilria
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
But DL quietly applied with DOT to make the authority non-gateway restrictive so that LAXHND could become HNLHNL.

I think DL would consolidate and make SEAHND stronger before dropping it.

Given that LAX is way better than SEA, I don't think that would make much sense to do.

Quoting CV880 (Reply 3):
Maybe a little premature to call it a failure in that connectivity via SEA has improved quite a bit since March 2014.
Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 4):
Wasn't their code share connectivity through AS?

Exactly, the connectivity is worse in some ways.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 7):
Well I think it is certainly getting better.

Maybe. It was pretty decent in the summer, although still losing money I'm sure. The Winter is god awful.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Load Factors:
HND-SEA
2013
JUN 56%
JUL 72%
AUG 74%
SEP 62%
OCT 33%
NOV 34%
DEC 61%
2014
JAN 66%
FEB 52%
Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 7):

October, November and February usually have relatively low load factors for leisure travel. Business travel remains, but leisure travel numbers are way off. It looks like the route took some time to pick up.

True, but it would be a major loss leader on an annual basis if you have LF as low as 33% at slower months.
 
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SANFan
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:35 pm

Hey, I know what DL needs: more domestic feed at SEA to help fill these new Asian flights!   

But seriously, I can't imagine DL will be pulling anything soon -- seems like they're committed to this SEA experiment.

bb
 
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LAXintl
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:41 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 5):
to have full open skies agreements

Japan and the U.S. do have full open-skies.

Open-skies however does not solve slot issues. There is only so many physically to go around.

Same thing occurs at LHR for example - another US open-skies partner nation.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Andy33
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):

I agree. In fact the Japanese providing some slots at HND (which has been basically a domestic airport), but not very many, to US based airlines, is a significantly more open response than JAL or ANA would get if they wanted to fly from LGA or DCA. There's a perfectly good reason for this of course, but

Quoting Prost (Reply 5):
at least our airports are open to all carriers, foreign or domestic.

is clearly wide of the mark.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:50 pm

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 4):
Wasn't their code share connectivity through AS?

Does somebody smell a bridge burning?  
Quoting enilria (Reply 8):
Given that LAX is way better than SEA, I don't think that would make much sense to do.

Price it low enough and I'm sure they'd one-stop it over SEA. Of course, that might defeat the purpose.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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ADent
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:07 pm

HA has zeroed out HNL-HND for March on GDS according to Enrilia's thread.

It is still bookable on HAs website, so it might just be a glitch.

What are HAs load factors?

Quoting andy33 (Reply 12):
is a significantly more open response than JAL or ANA would get if they wanted to fly from LGA or DCA

I don't think so. There are plenty of slots at those airports for the Midnight to 5AM time that the USA got stuck with at HND. There is plenty of international traffic at HND, so the perimeter control of DCA and LGA are irrelevant.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18399
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:17 pm

Quoting ADent (Reply 14):
What are HAs load factors?

83% for the YE JAN14

Quoting SANFan (Reply 10):
Hey, I know what DL needs: more domestic feed at SEA to help fill these new Asian flights!   

Those are looking equally rough too
I don't take responsibility at all
 
Cubsrule
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:22 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
Japan and the U.S. do have full open-skies.

Sorry, but telling US carriers that they cannot compete in the open market for slots at your busiest international airport (NRT) and shutting out US carriers from slots 16 hours of the day at your second-busiest international airport (HND) isn't full open skies.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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mercure1
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:28 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 16):
Sorry, but telling US carriers that they cannot compete in the open market for slots at your busiest international airport (NRT) and shutting out US carriers from slots 16 hours of the day at your second-busiest international airport (HND) isn't full open skies.

Don't confuse air-service agreement rights and slots as single issue. They are entirely different.

And its not a Japan only issue. Airlines cannot expect to show up and in a place like Heathrow, Sao Paulo, or even US airports either where slots are rare.

Anyhow, US airlines can complain to US government as they are the ones that award route and slots at HND for US carriers.
mercure f-wtcc
 
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LAXintl
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:33 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 16):
Sorry, but telling US carriers that they cannot compete in the open market for slots at your busiest international airport (NRT) and shutting out US carriers from slots 16 hours of the day at your second-busiest international airport (HND) isn't full open skies.

Go tell that to the U.S. government. US says its has "full" openskies with Japan since 2010, which indeed it does have.

http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ata/114805.htm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 17):
Don't confuse air-service agreement rights and slots as single issue. They are entirely different.

  

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 17):
And its not a Japan only issue. Airlines cannot expect to show up and in a place like Heathrow, Sao Paulo, or even US airports either where slots are rare.

Indeed. Closer to home, a Canada enjoys open skies with the US, but it also is limited in what it can operate at restricted airports like LGA, DCA, SNA etc.
I also have a European airline(open-skies nation) client that for 3 summers now cant get slots it wants at JFK.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Cubsrule
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Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:42 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 17):
Don't confuse air-service agreement rights and slots as single issue. They are entirely different.

There's no confusion here (and yes, LAXIntl, I realize that I disagree with the government on this). Slots are compatible with open skies, even if they are expensive or hard to get. Slot regimes that discriminate on the basis of national origin, as both the NRT and HND regimes do, are not in my book.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:25 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Load Factors:
HND-SEA
2013
JUN 56%
JUL 72%
AUG 74%
SEP 62%
OCT 33%
NOV 34%
DEC 61%
2014
JAN 66%
FEB 52%

This is what you get when DOT, for the sake of maintaining "fairness" across alliances, interfere with laissez-faire. Ditto for the JFK-HND experiment.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18399
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:47 pm

I didn't realize JL's SFOHND was also pretty rough: 73% LF for YE JAN14, though still better than SAN @ 70%, and not much worse than BOS @ 74%
I don't take responsibility at all
 
Slcpilot
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 3:32 am

RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:08 pm

Oh, the irony! YESTERDAY (!) I tried to get on HND-SEA and couldn't! Luckily the LAX flight load restriction wasn't las bad as feared, and boarding was (just barely) possible...
I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:21 pm

It really will come down to how much time delta thinks it can get better timed slots. These flights burn money but are investments in long term good hnd slots. Is it gonna pay off? No one knows

I wouldn't say lax would stay over sea. delta was trying to get lax switched to hnl so clearly its bleeding money also. Sea is the Asian gateway focus you could make an argument to strengthen it. I think delta should just pack up and leave hnd totally both flights, its been bad since day1.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:58 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 23):

I wouldn't say lax would stay over sea. delta was trying to get lax switched to hnl so clearly its bleeding money also. Sea is the Asian gateway focus you could make an argument to strengthen it. I think delta should just pack up and leave hnd totally both flights, its been bad since day1.

I don't think DOT should just let DL switch to HNL-HND for free. If DOT wants another HNL flight (on top of all the ones there are), all 3 legacies should have an equal shot in applying for it.

This equally applies to all HND authorities - SEA SFO LAX. If someone doesn't want it, it should go back to the open pool, not right-of-first-refusal by the existing owner.

[Edited 2014-08-25 12:59:09]
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:53 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
DL quietly applied with DOT to make the authority non-gateway restrictive so that LAXHND could become HNLHNL.

HNLHNL sounds like a terrible idea.   
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
dc9er
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:42 pm

DAL will subsidize the low LFs with other routes to keep the slot, if they consider it valuable.

If the economics don't pan out, the route will be dropped for a more profitable one.

Like the cancellation on the MSP-HNL nonstop.

Making coin trumps route authority any day. Just look at their profits so far this year......
 
jetblue1965
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:54 pm

Quoting dc9er (Reply 26):

And imagine how much higher the profits would be without these "long term investments", which is definitely code word for painful loss leader
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:01 pm

If HND is so sought after, why have all these flights been flops since they were added?
 
jetblue1965
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:12 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 28):

The funniest part is they insisted on jumping into it, knowing fully well from day one that the slot times will stink big time .... they made it all sound like they were caught by surprise on why landing at 10:30pm or departing at 6am doesn't work out
 
CV880
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:06 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 4):
Wasn't their code share connectivity through AS?

New DL connx from SFO/SJC/PDX/LAS/YVR since Mar'14, probably more later?
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:13 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 25):
HNLHNL sounds like a terrible idea.

Yes, but think of the RASM and yield!

Quoting dc9er (Reply 26):
DAL will subsidize the low LFs with other routes to keep the slot, if they consider it valuable.

Think about this. DL TransPac was disappointing in their earnings and US's Transatlantic was too. DL's was poor partially because this one route is god awful and US's Atlantic because of the CLT dreck they added like CLT-BRU/BCN. DL parked the 747-400s early because of the disappointing Transpac earnings. So to a large extent this one route caused that to happen. Something this bad can move the whole performance of the unit down by 3 or 4 points.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 28):

If HND is so sought after, why have all these flights been flops since they were added?

In DL's case they have had no incentive to advertise or market it because the story is "better than NRT" and that's a story they can't tell because they are more vested in NRT. As for the other carriers, i don't think they have done much to educate people either, but it is true that the slots are terrible.
 
lucky777
Posts: 294
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:50 am

Does anybody know how the other Asian flights out of SEA on Delta are doing....ICN/NRT/HKG/PEK?
 
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Aaron747
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RE: T100: DL SEA-HND Terrible LFs

Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:18 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 31):
As for the other carriers, i don't think they have done much to educate people either, but it is true that the slots are terrible.

I am sure this has been brought up before, but isn't it possible that HND has heavily restricted the daytime slots to avoid causing any delays with the domestic schedules of the airport's primary tenants? JL and NH run tight turns most of the day and passengers have high expectations for on-time performance...so that seems like a possibly huge factor.
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