mountainwest90
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SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:10 pm

There have been a few cuts to at risk flying by OO in California but the SLC and DEN flying has so far been spared.

I've been wondering what the future holds for these routes, most obviously the E120 routes as these aircraft are retired. I'm much more familiar with the SLC market than DEN but I'm curious about both. How many E120s are even based in DEN?

For reference here are some at risk markets OO currently fly's but not a complete list and not all E120s.

From SLC:
EKO Elko, NV
PIH Pocatello, ID
TWF Twin Falls, ID
WYS West Yellowstone, MT (Seasonal)
RKS Rock Springs, WY
GCC Gillette, WY
COD Cody, WY

and subsidized routes
VNL Vernal, UT
CNY Moab, UT
CDC Cedar City, UT

From DEN:
RKS Rock Springs, WY
GCC Gillette, WY
COD Cody, WY
LAR Laramie, WY
PUB Pueblo, CO

As I said it's not a complete list but should get the discussion started. Feel free to add some that I missed.

I particularly have an invested interest in SLC-PIH as Pocatello is my hometown and I"ll be interested to hear opinions on this route. Maybe the chances of a DEN-PIH flight.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:38 pm

Quoting MountainWest90 (Thread starter):
How many E120s are even based in DEN?

Zero. They're SLC-based.

Quoting MountainWest90 (Thread starter):
WYS West Yellowstone, MT (Seasonal)

This is also EAS.

Quoting MountainWest90 (Thread starter):
I particularly have an invested interest in SLC-PIH as Pocatello is my hometown

Jets have been scheduled on this route. Maybe not currently, but they have been. In fact, it was upgraded before TWF and SUN. It might just be a seasonal thing.
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TUSDawg23
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:53 pm

I'm purely basing this on proximity to other airports with adequate service levels nearby, but here are a few I could see being on the chopping block:

Cedar City: 45 minute drive from SGU which serves DEN and SLC. Utah is pretty sparsely populated outside of the SLC area so tough in my mind to justify service to two nearby Utah airports.

Pocatello: Hate to single out your hometown, but Pocatello is a 45 minute drive from IDA which has multiple flights per day to DEN and SLC along with some weekly flights on G4 to other destinations so I could see the route being cut.

Pueblo: Pueblo is about 40 minutes to nearby COS which serves a surprising variety of destinations served by all the legacy carriers and some service on G4.

[Edited 2014-08-29 08:54:37]
 
Thule
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:41 pm

I grew up in the PIH area and still have family there that I visit a few times each year. The writing has been on the wall for PIH for years now, ever since QX left and dropped its service to BOI, and the ill-fated Big Sky experiment. The $2+ million renovation is still a mystery to me, though I realize it was a Use It Or Lose It federal recovery grant. It could be a good investment if a second airline ever materializes at PIH, but I don't think that will happen before the E120s are retired, at which point DL/OO will almost certainly pull out of PIH due to the pointless economics of operating 2x daily CR2 flights while the nearby IDA is booming.
 
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Web500sjc
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:45 pm

Cedar city is an EAS funded operation, With connections to SLC only. SGU on the other hand is where the hq is, so it won't be discontinued due to the need to get executives to a hub quickly.
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Frontier14
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:51 pm

Quoting MountainWest90 (Thread starter):

I believe Pueblo is an EAS city. It was previously serviced by Great Lakes.

Frontier 14
 
oosnowrat
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:18 pm

The demand in these non-EAS markets is there, and will be regardless of the aircraft OO flies. The greatest challenge -- I think -- in changing to CR2s is the crummy schedules that result in going from three or four E120s per day to two CR2s. I think it would make the leakage to BOI, IDA, SLC, etc. even worse.

That said, there might still be more profit potential in the prorate markets than the neighboring contract markets. Maybe a triangle route with TWF and PIH is an option, like QX used to do with IDA and PIH.
 
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fanoftristars
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:45 pm

Quoting TUSDawg23 (Reply 2):
Cedar City: 45 minute drive from SGU which serves DEN and SLC. Utah is pretty sparsely populated outside of the SLC area so tough in my mind to justify service to two nearby Utah airports.

Maybe to the old SGU airport... More like an hour and 10 min now.
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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:08 pm

I don't think anyone knows the actual answer even skywest.

If the cities support less frequency CR2 service they will make it, if they can't they might loose their link. I don't think that we will see as big of a total cancellation as we saw in California/Nevada/Oregon recently from skywest EMB120 routes. I expect more CR2 flights(less frequency of course) and less total cancellations some of these are very old and profitable routes for skywest. The problem is the plane that made these routes so profitable is now getting very tired. Skywest before it did all these bad mergers was very profitable and made alot of these small western routes from SLC. Airfares tend to be very high and there is a steady demand.

For a city like Elko to totally have no flights would be horrible for the economy. That would be an actual crisis. They are at 3x EMB120 so 2xCR2 seems reasonable. I do think skywest is gonna want to keep these communities, these cities built the airline.

[Edited 2014-08-29 13:32:20]
 
durangomac
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:12 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 8):
Skywest before it did all these bad mergers was very profitable and made alot of these small western routes from SLC.

SkyWest Airlines (OO) is profitable, it's the parent (SkyWest, Inc.) that is having issues because of ExpressJet (EV) ExpressJet is loosing so much money it's not even funny. OO employees are still getting financial bonuses, maybe not as big as years past but that is because things have gotten more expensive but the pay from the major partners hasn't gone up at the same rate.
 
mountainwest90
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:42 am

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 1):
How many E120s are even based in DEN?
Zero. They're SLC-based.

Thank you for that info. I did not know that. I assume they are cycled through GCC or RKS?

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 1):
WYS West Yellowstone, MT (Seasonal)
This is also EAS.

I did not know that but I searched the internet quickly and found it to be true. I didn't know EAS could have seasonal flights.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 1):
Jets have been scheduled on this route. Maybe not currently, but they have been. In fact, it was upgraded before TWF and SUN. It might just be a seasonal thing.

The City of Pocatello has been begging OO to bring jets into PIH because you know people like flying jets instead of turboprops. Finally 2 years ago, June 5th 2012 one flight went to a jet. It stayed that way until this last June when OO decided to go 4 flights a day but back to props. Now the flight is going to 3 flights a day in October.

To sum up the schedule has changed as such:
Pre June 2012
3x E120 Weekdays 2x E120 Weekends 19x (570 seats) weekly
June 2012 - June 2014
1x CRJ 2x E120 Weekdays 1x CRJ 1x E120 Weekends 19x (710 seats) weekly
June 2014 till October 2014
4x E120 3x E120 Saturday 27x (810 seats) weekly
Post October 2014
3x E120 2x E120 Saturday 20x (600 seats) weekly

Quoting TUSDawg23 (Reply 2):
Pocatello: Hate to single out your hometown, but Pocatello is a 45 minute drive from IDA which has multiple flights per day to DEN and SLC along with some weekly flights on G4 to other destinations so I could see the route being cut.

Hey, no hard feelings. I as well have felt pretty pessimistic in the past. However things have been looking up in the last 2 years. With competitive pricing and advertising there have been an increase in passenger traffic.
A few links:
POCATELLO AIR TRAFFIC CONTINUES STEADY CLIMB
POCATELLO PASSENGER TRAFFIC INCREASES 17% IN JULY

From the FAA. Enplanements from 2011 to 2013:
2011: 21,566
2012: 22,214 3.00% growth
2013: 23,775 7.03% growth
2014: ~26,152 based on link stating 10% growth for 2014 so far.
That comes out to ~72 passengers per day

Quoting Thule (Reply 3):
I believe Pueblo is an EAS city. It was previously serviced by Great Lakes.

It is EAS.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 8):
For a city like Elko to totally have no flights would be horrible for the economy. That would be an actual crisis. They are at 3x EMB120 so 2xCR2 seems reasonable. I do think skywest is gonna want to keep these communities, these cities built the airline.

Elko will keep it's flights unless it's economy completely collapses. It's too remote to not have air service.

Quoting oosnowrat (Reply 6):
That said, there might still be more profit potential in the prorate markets than the neighboring contract markets. Maybe a triangle route with TWF and PIH is an option, like QX used to do with IDA and PIH.

A triangle route might be possible. With some of the Point to Point routes that OO does I always thought they might make a go with a IDA-PIH-BOI with a E120. Obviously not likely anymore.
It's so easy to reach SLC from Eastern Idaho by car or Salt Lake Express. If PIH was able to get a link to DEN, which isn't as accessible, if that would bring numbers up. Even a triangle route of PIH-RKS-DEN would be nice. RKS has the same enplanement numbers as PIH yet maintains links to both SLC and DEN.
 
mtnwest1979
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:45 am

Quoting MountainWest90 (Reply 10):
A triangle route might be possible. With some of the Point to Point routes that OO does I always thought they might make a go with a IDA-PIH-BOI with a E120. Obviously not likely anymore.

A la 1983 when Cascade, Horizon, and SkyWest all did BOI-PIH-IDA-BOI all on Metros. OO (QG then) was last to begin in Oct '83 IIRC. Lasted only until just befor Jan 84. 3 flights. 2 BOI-IDA-PIH-BOI and one BOI-PIH-IDA-BOI or v v. I did a day trip to IDA on QX and the PIH folks were shocked at the big load getting on. There were 6 ,SIX, getting on there lol. But for a Saturday, I guess that is good. Flew a new SWM III to PIH, and an old junky former Transwestern Metro on return.
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ridgid727
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:47 am

Quoting MountainWest90 (Reply 10):
Elko will keep it's flights unless it's economy completely collapses. It's too remote to no
t have air service.

This will only remain if OO turns a profit there. A few years ago, OO dropped EKO-RNO because it was unprofitable, essentially cutting their departures at EKO by 40%. (even though they were thru flights on a SLC-EKO-RNO routing.

Same goes for their new CRJ service to TWF, PIH and any other unsdsidized route. If the don't keep the "profitable" numbers up, they will be axed.

If the FEDS chop the money off for CDC OO will fly out of there fast, and the only reason they are still there is the UT congressional group in DC keep it active stating they need it for the close proximity to the national Parks for air service etc.
 
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yellowtail
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:21 pm

As the E120s age, they are becoming more and more expensive to operate.
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Thule
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:51 pm

Quoting MountainWest90 (Reply 10):
The City of Pocatello has been begging OO to bring jets into PIH because you know people like flying jets instead of turboprops. Finally 2 years ago, June 5th 2012 one flight went to a jet. It stayed that way until this last June when OO decided to go 4 flights a day but back to props. Now the flight is going to 3 flights a day in October.

It made sense to me since the late night arrival/early morning departure was the only set of flights that might have loads exceeding 30. But from what I understand, an 80% full CR2 isn't as economical as a 90% full EM2, so it also doesn't surprise me that they discontinued that.

Quoting MountainWest90 (Reply 10):
Hey, no hard feelings. I as well have felt pretty pessimistic in the past. However things have been looking up in the last 2 years. With competitive pricing and advertising there have been an increase in passenger traffic.
A few links:
POCATELLO AIR TRAFFIC CONTINUES STEADY CLIMB
POCATELLO PASSENGER TRAFFIC INCREASES 17% IN JULY

That is good news, but by my (and your) calculations that comes out to maybe 2-6 extra pax per flight over last year. Are the EM2s now getting filled to capacity? And even if they are, will those numbers be high enough to maintain service when they're retired?
 
bjorn14
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:35 pm

I wonder if SUN could get approval for the E175 that OO is getting? I realize most will be flying UA routes but maybe 1 to DEN?
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doug_or
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:40 pm

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 12):

This will only remain if OO turns a profit there. A few years ago, OO dropped EKO-RNO because it was unprofitable, essentially cutting their departures at EKO by 40%. (even though they were thru flights on a SLC-EKO-RNO routing.

I would assume EKO would be eligible to become EAS if it was no longer a profitable route. Anyone know how that would work?
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enilria
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:41 pm

I thought OO was flying a number of CR2s out of ORD at risk? Did that change? I know they were.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:44 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 15):

I wonder if SUN could get approval for the E175 that OO is getting? I realize most will be flying UA routes but maybe 1 to DEN?

It's certainly possible, but it takes time and money to get that approval.

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
I thought OO was flying a number of CR2s out of ORD at risk? Did that change? I know they were.

Yes, for both UA and AA, and that flying will probably grow as CR2s come off contract, but the trick is to find cities that neither serve, and will continue to bring further profit to the operation. They're out there, somewhere..
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mountainwest90
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:14 pm

Quoting Thule (Reply 14):
Are the EM2s now getting filled to capacity?
Quoting Thule (Reply 14):
It made sense to me since the late night arrival/early morning departure was the only set of flights that might have loads exceeding 30.

The morning flight when it was a CRJ would fill up. At least on Sundays and Mondays. Other days it was between 30 and 40 pax.
Now days the first E120 flight out of Pocatello is almost always full and sells out a couple weeks in advance except maybe Wednesdays and Saturdays.
I feel bad that they are cutting flight 7434. This is the flight they added in June and are now discontinuing in October. Loads weren't great to begin with but thru July and into August there has been improvement in the loads. I'd say it flies at about 65% LF compared to 50% LF in June. In fact I just flew on this flight on Friday and it had 19 pax. This flight can have good timing for people flying West Coast from PIH.
Unscientifically and based on pure speculation I'd say the LF% of PIH flights averaged over the week comes as such:
Flt. 7428: 90%
Flt. 7429: 73%
Flt. 7434: 60%
Flt. 7430: 70%

Obviously loads don't represent profitability but OO wouldn't be flying the route if these didn't do it for them.

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 12):
If the FEDS chop the money off for CDC OO will fly out of there fast

I don't doubt that. It isn't really a very convenient airport for the National Parks anyway. I feel most would just use LAS or SGU. I do however think the flights to CNY are flourishing. I saw a near full boat going there on Friday.
 
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enilria
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:33 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 18):
Yes, for both UA and AA, and that flying will probably grow as CR2s come off contract, but the trick is to find cities that neither serve, and will continue to bring further profit to the operation. They're out there, somewhere..

OO is applying to do ESC for DL at risk.
 
Alias1024
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:16 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 15):

I wonder if SUN could get approval for the E175 that OO is getting? I realize most will be flying UA routes but maybe 1 to DEN?


Why would that be needed? OO already operates the CR7 to SUN. Why not just use that to DEN?
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
iowaman
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RE: SkyWest OO At Risk Routes (SLC, DEN) Future

Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:19 pm

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 16):
I would assume EKO would be eligible to become EAS if it was no longer a profitable route. Anyone know how that would work?

There is no application to get into EAS. If you're in you're in unless you are cut due to too high of subsidies or no longer need it (such as MHK for example).

Quoting MountainWest90 (Reply 19):
I don't doubt that. It isn't really a very convenient airport for the National Parks anyway

CDC is well positioned for Cedar Breaks National Monument, Brian Head Ski Resort and Bryce Canyon National Park. I do agree however that SGU isn't far down I-15. Zion N.P. is much more convenient to SGU and handles more tourists.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 15):
I wonder if SUN could get approval for the E175 that OO is getting? I realize most will be flying UA routes but maybe 1 to DEN?

I'm guessing the CRJ-700 is used for performance reasons, similar to ASE. Lots of high terrain to clear.

[Edited 2014-08-31 16:21:21]

[Edited 2014-08-31 16:21:51]

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