ripcordd
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:21 pm

because AI can under cut everyone because they are govt backed and not have to worry about turning a profit...
 
upwardfacing
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:37 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 48):
upwardfacing Pointed me toward some pretty interesting info, about how India is made a bit more difficult due to the Himalayas and the inability to overfly them.

Thanks, I responded later on in the same discussion thread about UA's next intl service and sent you a quick PM as well.

Besides the safety restrictions of flying over high elevations (emergency landings would require oxygen supplies), you have to consider winds and how they will affect routings.

For example, when SQ flew EWR to SIN nonstop, this evidently flew eastbound over the Atlantic, whereas on the return, it went over the Pacific. If you test out SFO to DEL vs DEL to SFO one-stop routings on any travel website, you will see a clear difference over whether an Atlantic or Pacific routing is faster depending on which direction you travel.

By the way, flights from DEL to Europe--I don't think--fly over KBL but rather over flatter southern Afghanistan to avoid the mountainous areas of the north.

As always, you can investigate further by talking to pilots or other knowledgeable pros.
 
jfk777
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Sun Sep 07, 2014 11:23 pm

AA flew from ORD to DEL nonstop, it was 15 hours nonstop. IT was the first route they cut in early 2012 when AA declared bankruptcy.
 
S75752
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:06 am

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 51):
By the way, flights from DEL to Europe--I don't think--fly over KBL but rather over flatter southern Afghanistan to avoid the mountainous areas of the north.

Looking on one of the sites (not allowed to mention here?) showed interesting results regarding flights through Afghanistan. Many, if not most, overfly GZI not far from KBL, and others overflew KBL (Including a UA83 DEL-EWR and an AI DEL-ORD I managed to find on there). Not necessarily to or from DEL, but did seem to take those paths.

The UA DEL-EWR actually seemed to continue on a path slightly similar to the one I thought of, albeit turning a bit more eastward before finally turning much more eastward a bit further north. Sadly I couldn't find transpolar flights, but overall it did seem many flights do seem to go in to the general area I described.

However, I will say that it certainly is interesting to note the variation that seems to appear in the same overall flight in terms of the path it does end up taking... Looking at some past SFO-DXB's shows some strong variation in flight paths taken, usually sticking to transpolar but sometimes dipping down over Europe. Does make me wonder what sort of differences could pop up for a SFO-DEL-SFO, seems difficult to find things such as that to compare to.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 51):
you will see a clear difference over whether an Atlantic or Pacific routing is faster depending on which direction you travel.

The overall time seemed consistent at about 21-23 hours each way including the connection (with the connection time restricted to around a reasonable 2-4.5 hours), regardless of where the stop was, assuming that a connection could be made with that time constraint.
The listed flight time for the EK SFO-DXB-SFO seemed to stay pretty consistent between 15.5 to 16 hours across the seasons.
Now, I don't know about any overflight specifics apart from the geography mentioned, but the SFO-DEL-SFO pathing, at least the one that *seems* possible, isn't *too* different from that path, it is still close to polar but a bit more westward (or would it be called south from the pole?).

I am interested in hearing more on this still... It's very intriguing.
 
frostyj
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:25 am

Maybe because its so far away?

I wouldn't be pleased about spending 16 hours on a plane.
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S75752
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:54 am

Quoting frostyj (Reply 54):

I wouldn't be pleased about spending 16 hours on a plane.

Comes down to preference (and fare) really.
Either that, or 11 hours on a plane, 2-3 hours trudging through customs to the next flight, then 8 more on a plane.
Or as many do via DXB anyways, 16 hours on a plane, 2-3 (or even more) hours in customs/stopover, and then another 3-4 hours on a plane.

I suppose you could possibly get a day long stop somewhere and rest up though, but cost could of course be a downside.

Getting to India is going to be brutal any of the options.

[Edited 2014-09-07 19:55:46]
 
USAirALB
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:58 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 52):
AA flew from ORD to DEL nonstop, it was 15 hours nonstop. IT was the first route they cut in early 2012 when AA declared bankruptcy.


I wonder if this route would perform better with a new reconfigured 2 class 777.
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bharathkv
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:31 am

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 50):
because AI can under cut everyone because they are govt backed and not have to worry about turning a profit...

AI fares from US to India are actually more expensive than other carriers. Yes, sometimes AI has cheaper fares, but most of the time AI is one of the most expensive.
 
9w748capt
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:48 am

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 56):

Would definitely be better, but still probably not good enough - no partner in India now, and even more competition from the ME3 plus TK at ORD.
 
upwardfacing
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:25 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 53):
Looking on one of the sites (not allowed to mention here?) showed interesting results regarding flights through Afghanistan.

Only that most of the sites provide approximations rather than exact paths based on real-time information. You could verify that a plane is flying over Point 1 and over Point 2, but you may not know what actually happens in between, so you simply construct a line.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 53):
The overall time seemed consistent at about 21-23 hours each way including the connection

Sorry, I meant to consider just flying time subtracting layover time. Then the difference should be clearer.

BTW--and this is important--there are no really high elevation areas north of the Gulf. The collision of India with Asia roughly 40 million years ago continues to have its consequences.

I'm told that SFO-->DXB typically catches the jetstream making it a North Atlantic routing, whereas on the return DXB-->SFO it's a straight polar routing. The same idea would apply for LAX and SEA. A hypothetical SFO-->DEL may be just a couple of hours longer than SFO-->DXB, but that seemingly little extra time makes a big difference.
 
muralir
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:16 am

I've always wondered why no U.S. carrier (or Air India) has created an Indian hub in EWR or ORD. Imagine having nonstops from e.g. ORD to DEL, BOM, MAA, BLR, and HYD. Taking advantage of United's enormous feed into ORD, you would offer a compelling 1-stop product to lots of the Tier II/III cities that currently would need 2-3 stops even on ME3 or European / Asian carriers (plus nonstop in a big O&D market as well). People would likely pay a premium to eliminate 1 stop.

IMHO, AI is going at this wrong by assuming everyone would prefer to connect in DEL. Not so. If given the option, I'd rather connect in FRA/LHR/SIN/DXB/etc. to MAA, HYD, and BLR than take my chances through DEL. While I've heard the new airport is nice, I'd much rather go through customs & immigration at my final destination rather than risk missing my flight by going through those hassles in DEL.

Similarly, if given the option, I'd rather connect in ORD / EWR than in Europe or Asia due to the potential for irrops. Missing a connection in ORD is usually not too much of a hassle since there are usually more flights in the day to whatever city I'm going to, and worse case scenario, spending a night in Chicago is far easier than spending a night in Frankfurt.

So, IMHO, I think that such a hub could easily offer a 1-stop to a bunch of cities that are currently 2-3 stops even with the international carriers. And even for people in big cities who have other 1-stop options, they might prefer making their connection in a domestic city rather than risk problems in an unfamiliar, international city.

I'm not sure how much of a premium these advantages would translate to, but I think it's another way to compete with the int'l carriers without simply launching a price war.
 
S75752
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:52 am

Quoting muralir (Reply 60):
I've always wondered why no U.S. carrier (or Air India) has created an Indian hub in EWR or ORD.

They make good sense to connect to on the east coast obviously, but from the west coast the only decent option would be nonstop.
Even then, there's the consideration that it's still a very long way.

MAA, BLR, and HYD can pretty much be ruled out from the start due to range (each of those from EWR is longer than what I figure to be likely SFO-DEL routings anyways), leaving DEL, BOM, and maybe CCU. On top of that, for east coast customers they'd also be competing against the European fares (which do not mess up the travel time very much for the east coast).

EWR will probably be as close as it gets to what you seek anyways with UA and AI both serving a total of 3 destinations from there, with a CCU maybe on the horizon with a smaller craft.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 59):
Only that most of the sites provide approximations rather than exact paths based on real-time information. You could verify that a plane is flying over Point 1 and over Point 2, but you may not know what actually happens in between, so you simply construct a line.

Well, if anything that does make me curious of the accuracy and actual update rate then, if that could really produce such a strange deviation for so many flights if so.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 59):
Sorry, I meant to consider just flying time subtracting layover time. Then the difference should be clearer.

With it subtracted a difference is still clear, seemed to be usually about 2.5-4 hours depending on where the stop is.
The point I was trying to make is that with that stop, you're looking at 5-7 hours longer total time travelling anyways, and that's if you get the ticket with the decent stop times... With how those tickets are sold, one of them may only be like the 3rd or 4th cheapest. While a very low-fare determined leisure traveller may tolerate some 5-10 hour stop, A business definitely sounds more picky, though they'll probably pay the smaller stop price anyways.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 59):
I'm told that SFO-->DXB typically catches the jetstream making it a North Atlantic routing, whereas on the return DXB-->SFO it's a straight polar routing. The same idea would apply for LAX and SEA. A hypothetical SFO-->DEL may be just a couple of hours longer than SFO-->DXB, but that seemingly little extra time makes a big difference.

The listed flight times on the searches for the future seemed to be only about a half hour difference overall, with regard to the EK DXB ones. I'll try to uncover actual flight time/path histories later when I have more energy. However, the sites I tried did have the annoying issue of cutting out coverage closer to the poles, not sure if I was doing something wrong or what.
 
JOYA380B747
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:20 am

For all of you who think about possibilities of this and that, there is barely any chance of another India-US non stop flight addition by any airline, let alone a US airline, in the foreseeable future at least. And to add to the equation the possibility for such at airports other than BOM or DEL, is an even rarer. Be it huge O&D, be it huge corporate travel or what not, The ME3 and European carriers have taken over traffic to-from India in such a way that reversing/altering any of it will take forever for Indian or US carriers. That is if they even tried.
India's biggest loss w.r.t global aviation (so far) - Being an Australasia-Europe stopover.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:03 am

Ok, gonna weigh in here.

Expansion in US to India Nonstop flights = Bad idea for anyone.

First off, the nonstop flights that do exist only survive because the market sizes are simply that huge. The only missing link might be SFO-DEL (and even 9W couldn't make SFO work).

Second, the days in which domestic carriers operated (non-NYC) nonstop flights to India were long before the ME3 got a stranglehold on traffic between the US and India. Nobody can compete with them on a domestic level. For DL operating ATL-BOM (which made no sense to me at any point) or AA operating ORD-DEL, they won't be able to survive off of the same fares that QR, EY, and EK can. Then you have the fact that the service on the ME3 blows away anything from the domestic carriers. When ORD-DEL on AA operated, the fares were so low that ORD-MAN was getting higher fares.

Third, every city with a decent sized O&D to India (sans ATL) has a ME3 carrier in their city. For reference, Im using 150 PDEW as reference for "decent sized". Connecting in JFK, EWR, and ORD don't bring anything new to those cities other than preference.

Last week I flew DFW-DOH-BOM in J. The flight was packed to the brim, but the entire back cabin was full of India traffic. The majority of the front cabin was destined for Arabic destinations as opposed to Indian ones. Thats pretty much going to be the standard. You'll have exceptions because of the market sizes in places like NYC, ORD, and SFO, but for the rest of the country thats pretty much the gist of it.

The only way I could think that expanding would be a good idea is if we could bring back the AA A300. Thats pretty much the needed configuration for an expansion to take place.  
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bharathkv
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:15 pm

Quoting muralir (Reply 60):
IMHO, AI is going at this wrong by assuming everyone would prefer to connect in DEL. Not so. If given the option, I'd rather connect in FRA/LHR/SIN/DXB/etc. to MAA, HYD, and BLR than take my chances through DEL. While I've heard the new airport is nice, I'd much rather go through customs & immigration at my final destination rather than risk missing my flight by going through those hassles in DEL.

When I flew in Air India US-India route I cleared my customs and immigration at the final destination and not at DEL. I did the trip 3 months back. Not sure if this has been changed now. I prefer to go nonstop to DEL and then to my final destination since most of the major cities are only 2-3 hours from DEL, and AI has lots of connections even if the flight is delayed.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:38 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 63):

First off, the nonstop flights that do exist only survive because the market sizes are simply that huge. The only missing link might be SFO-DEL (and even 9W couldn't make SFO work).

Many things went wrong with that flight :

1. 9W was only marginally a UA partner back then
2. It was a 1-stop BOM-PVG-SFO, which wasn't particularly attractive against all the other 1-stop competition
3. They used a plane way too big - 77W
4. They launched 2 brand new destinations, SFO *and* PVG. The ones flying PVG-SFO had very little brand awareness of what "Jet Airways" was, so they didn't embrace 9W.

On the other hand, if UA were to launch a hypothetical SFO-DEL with the 787-9 it would have a much higher chance of success :

1. Well known brands at both ends
2. Alliance connections at DEL, and if UA finally mend relations with SQ, connections with Vistara as well
3. Right sized plane, both in absolute seats and in CASM
4. Many are willing to justify the yield premium of flying nonstop (nearly 19% shorter than via DXB)
5. DEL is a more logical connection point for most of India compared to BOM when coming in from SFO
 
hohd
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:46 pm

Quoting muralir (Reply 60):
IMHO, AI is going at this wrong by assuming everyone would prefer to connect in DEL. Not so. If given the option, I'd rather connect in FRA/LHR/SIN/DXB/etc. to MAA, HYD, and BLR than take my chances through DEL. While I've heard the new airport is nice, I'd much rather go through customs & immigration at my final destination rather than risk missing my flight by going through those hassles in DEL.

AI operates multiple flights to major cities in India, so if you miss the connection you can always get on another flight. The customs/immigration hassles are overblown at DEL, now it takes no more than 45 to 60 minutes. If you miss the flight at Europe, you will have to wait till next day for the flight. Only DXB has the luxury of multiple flights to multiple cities, which is precisely why EK is popular.

The only flight which has some potential for AI is SFO-DEL (with a small chance of IAD-DEL). UA - not likely to any city in India from any city in USA, they usually withdraw from competition. They are content in letting LH do the connecting, I doubt if UA is even interested in pairing with AI (assuming India will get back Cat I status).
 
SATexan
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:57 pm

I am damn sure that a nonstop SEA-BLR would be a winner for any airline that would fly it. The fares are pretty good and there is enough premium demand from the tech traffic. UA can add SFO-DEL / EWR-BLR with their 787s and make money.

US Airlines are leaving too much money on the table in the Indian market. With the Indian carriers in disarray you'd think that UA/AA/DL would be swooping down to take over the market! Agreed that the ME3 are currently dominating the US-India market but this a also market that is exploding astronomically. Personally for me, an SAT-EWR-BLR is any day more convenient than flying SAT-IAH-ME-BLR. This will save me a lot of travel time. Secondly, I'd prefer to earn miles/rewards on American carriers so I can put them to good use domestically. Those ME3 rewards mean nothing to me since I don't accrue a whole lot and you don't have many options to redeem them. But the American carriers don't give me a whole lot of non stop options  

Finally, I visited a Starbucks in Bangalore the last time I was there. They are charging almost the same amount for a latte as in the States and seem to be doing really well. Many other foreign companies - IBM, Apple, Accenture, GM, Marriott, Hyatt, McDonald's, Pizza Hut, Nokia etc are doing incredibly well in the Indian market even though they are not exactly cheap. Indian customers are not always as price sensitive as some airlines and some A.net members make them out to be.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:10 pm

Quoting SATexan (Reply 67):
I am damn sure that a nonstop SEA-BLR would be a winner for any airline that would fly it. The fares are pretty good and there is enough premium demand from the tech traffic.

The market is nowhere near large enough to even entertain the idea.

SFO and NYC would even struggle to maintain a flight to BLR nonstop. SFO has the best chance by far, but even then its not worth it. SFO-DEL has a far better shot.

Quoting SATexan (Reply 67):
Personally for me, an SAT-EWR-BLR is any day more convenient than flying SAT-IAH-ME-BLR. This will save me a lot of travel time. Secondly, I'd prefer to earn miles/rewards on American carriers so I can put them to good use domestically. Those ME3 rewards mean nothing to me since I don't accrue a whole lot and you don't have many options to redeem them. But the American carriers don't give me a whole lot of non stop options  

Fly QR and get the miles with AA.

On top of that, SAT-India is not a big enough market for airlines to consider it when making decisions.

After re-reading this thread, people have a ridiculously inflated idea on how profitable nonstop flights from the US to India would be. Only NYC, Chicago, and the Bay Area have the critical mass to make it work.
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SATexan
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:21 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 68):
The market is nowhere near large enough to even entertain the idea.

Fair enough! By the same token, SFO-CTU on UA, IAH-SIN on SQ, SFO-IST on TK, DFW-HKG on AA etc., are ideas that shouldn't be entertained. Right? SFO-DEL or even BOM should have been started yesterday. SEA-BLR has the potential to explode which is precisely why Northwest had announced SEA-AMS-BLR several years ago and for some unknown reasons shelved it just days before the start date.. IIRC, poor bookings were not cited as the reason for the cancellation.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 68):
On top of that, SAT-India is not a big enough market for airlines to consider it when making decisions.

Where did I say that SAT has to be considered by airlines?? I am only stating that it is convenient for me personally to not make a stop in the middle east / Europe and fly directly to India. Likewise, Wouldn't it be convenient for someone in the Bay Area to fly directly to India instead of making a connection or two?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 68):
Only NYC, Chicago, and the Bay Area have the critical mass to make it work.

So you do agree that there is critical mass in NYC, Chicago and the Bay Area. That's precisely why OP started this thread to discuss why there aren't more American carriers between US-India  
 
jetblue1965
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:33 pm

Quoting SATexan (Reply 69):

So you do agree that there is critical mass in NYC, Chicago and the Bay Area. That's precisely why OP started this thread to discuss why there aren't more American carriers between US-India

LAX as a whole has the critical mass too. The only issue there's not a single airline's hub that can do it. Another reason why an overly fragmented market isn't the best for consumers.
 
JOYA380B747
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 65):
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 63):

First off, the nonstop flights that do exist only survive because the market sizes are simply that huge. The only missing link might be SFO-DEL (and even 9W couldn't make SFO work).

Many things went wrong with that flight :

1. 9W was only marginally a UA partner back then
2. It was a 1-stop BOM-PVG-SFO, which wasn't particularly attractive against all the other 1-stop competition
3. They used a plane way too big - 77W
4. They launched 2 brand new destinations, SFO *and* PVG. The ones flying PVG-SFO had very little brand awareness of what "Jet Airways" was, so they didn't embrace 9W.

Add to that the fact that it was launched just pre-recession. Not only this route, but several others were axed in succession and the leasing out of seven of their 77W began soon afterwards as well. The recession played a very important part for halting 9W growth.
India's biggest loss w.r.t global aviation (so far) - Being an Australasia-Europe stopover.
 
S75752
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:17 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 68):
The market is nowhere near large enough to even entertain the idea.

SFO and NYC would even struggle to maintain a flight to BLR nonstop. SFO has the best chance by far, but even then its not worth it. SFO-DEL has a far better shot.

The issue isn't the market, the issue is probably the range!
SEA-BLR with Detour ~8360 Miles
SFO-BLR with Detour ~9000 Miles
EWR-BLR ~8300 Miles
For comparison: QF DFW-SYD ~8570 Miles

I don't think UA nor AI are ready for anything like that, especially with DEL and BOM overflight and connection options anyways. The market is certainly there from all 3 airports but it would just be a redundant, long route that can be sent through DEL or BOM anyways.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 63):
(and even 9W couldn't make SFO work).
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 65):
2. It was a 1-stop BOM-PVG-SFO, which wasn't particularly attractive against all the other 1-stop competition

Let's be honest, it was not in reality an SFO-BOM. It was not even SFO-PVG-BOM. It was SFO-PVG (Stepping on UA and MU turf) and PVG-BOM, no benefit whatsoever over the other Asian competitors aside from maybe some more India connections, though BOM seems kind of awkward for such, given it crosses through India and past DEL.

Their 77W has the range and proper capacity for SFO-DEL (if it would have been them to join *A given their apparent UA and AC ties), but stepping in to SFO-PVG simply has "bad idea" written all over it with such a large craft, when neither PVG nor SFO is a hub for them or an alliance partner.

That is assuming it was even a 5th freedom flight. If it wasn't then it transcends from "Bad idea" to "Were they drunk?!"
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:27 pm

Good thread question. I have always wondered why its so few. The 787 should be able to do this non-stop, perhaps with payload restrictions. Yield is definitely a problem as I think the India traffic is just not very lucrative yet. I fly Emirates and I too have heard that India is just not a rainmaker for them. I really do think that UA could capture this market from ORD and EWR using the 787s. Its ideal for the all coach traffic.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:12 pm

Quoting SATexan (Reply 69):
Fair enough! By the same token, SFO-CTU on UA, IAH-SIN on SQ, SFO-IST on TK, DFW-HKG on AA etc., are ideas that shouldn't be entertained. Right?

Just curious, how big do you think SEA-BLR is?

Its actually smaller than every market you've listed. By the same token SEA-India is smaller than the likes of IAH/DFW/BOS-India. Its about the same size as ATL-India.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:31 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 26):
The India-Netherlands bilateral provides 21 weekly frequencies to carriers from the Netherlands for use in passenger and/or cargo service, with a maximum of 7 weekly frequencies to any single destination (the same allotment is given to Indian carriers). I don't know if it is still true, but at one point in time all 21 frequencies designated to the Netherlands were in use without having any left over for KL to fly AMS-BOM on its own metal. Having DL (originally NW) fly that segment under the JV provided a workaround to the bilateral since they were not a Dutch carrier. That is the reason that AMS-India is included in the JV whereas CDG-India and the remainder of the CDG/AMS-Asia/ME routes are not.

Was that why NW/KL alternated operating the AMS-BOM/DEL flights depending on the day of week? Something like NW would fly 1-3-5 and KL would do 2-4-6-7 on each? I recall seeing the dotted line route maps in Holland Herald and World Traveler magazines growing up denoting this.
 
upwardfacing
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RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 61):
With it subtracted a difference is still clear, seemed to be usually about 2.5-4 hours depending on where the stop is.
The point I was trying to make is that with that stop, you're looking at 5-7 hours longer total time travelling anyways, and that's if you get the ticket with the decent stop times... With how those tickets are sold, one of them may only be like the 3rd or 4th cheapest. While a very low-fare determined leisure traveller may tolerate some 5-10 hour stop, A business definitely sounds more picky, though they'll probably pay the smaller stop price anyways.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. Forget about prices. Simply look at whatever route offers the least plane time in either direction. The 5-7 hours time savings you imply are grossly exaggerated. There is a decent time savings for a potential nonstop DEL-->SFO, but the time savings for a potential nonstop SFO-->DEL is not very significant. It's still just too long. That's what I've been told by an airline professional familiar with the issue.

Remember again, this subject has been studied by multiple aviation firms. You can't just sit on your couch and rely on the internet looking at flight distances to figure all this out. The professionals that look at this have to consider both physical (usually atmospheric and geological) and sometimes political barriers and come up with routing possibilities. (Like, how about headwinds and tailwinds?!) If this were so simple, they could hire A.netters instead.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 61):
However, the sites I tried did have the annoying issue of cutting out coverage closer to the poles, not sure if I was doing something wrong or what.

You can't believe everything you see online. I'll leave it at that.

[Edited 2014-09-08 14:55:31]
 
frostyj
Posts: 1786
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:04 am

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:02 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 55):

Dunno about you but I can't sit in a plane any longer than 9 or 10 hours.

I really have no good ability for sitting without moving for a full day. Thankfully I live in a good place in the earth where I am no more than 8 or 9 hours from the important places.

[Edited 2014-09-08 15:03:08]
[url=http://m.maploco.com/details/5f34zxvq][img]http://www.maploco.com/vmap/s/8395334.png[/img][/url]
 
S75752
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 4:51 am

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 76):

Well I'm not going to bother arguing that any further, apart from all the other ULH routes seemed like they gave it a shot, some worked some didn't... And I'm left wondering if the decision makers had the same skepticism toward it or not.

What I was referring to is overall travel time, Here to DEL. The durations of other ultra long haul flights around the range that I estimated seem to adhere fairly well to the 16-17 hour length, but I confess I don't know the other factors that could influence that further, and I would love to learn more about them, as I do through each of your posts.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 76):
You can't believe everything you see online. I'll leave it at that.

If there are resources and/or individuals available to further inquire in to the flight paths, times, locations, and factors with more accuracy than the sites or resource I've tried so far, then I'm certainly interested. I get the gut feeling that such may be behind NDA's or industry priced subscriptions.

Quoting frostyj (Reply 77):
Dunno about you but I can't sit in a plane any longer than 9 or 10 hours.

I really have no good ability for sitting without moving for a full day. Thankfully I live in a good place in the earth where I am no more than 8 or 9 hours from the important places.

I wouldn't want to be on a plane for longer than that either but unfortunately the location here (SFO) and probably LAX too makes that difficult if trying to go somewhere long haul nonstop.
I'm perfectly fine with a stop if it's near the path it'd otherwise take, like stopping in ICN between SFO and BKK, HNL between SYD, or KEF to just about anywhere in Europe or beyond (hence why I keep bringing up that service). Basically, stops that wouldn't add more than 500 miles to the path. Problem is none such exist for DEL. YVR, SEA, or ANC would be nice, but the chances of those getting such a service to stop over to sound even slimmer. DEL is, admittedly, one of the only major destinations I can think of that are like that.
 
Nimish
Posts: 2969
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:46 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:46 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 20):
It looks to me like UA will stay the one, with AI joining *A, that's quite a formidable relationship (assuming they start to utilize it)

Just so it's clear, though UA and AI are now in the same alliance, UA & 9W continue to be partners, and I've seen nothing to indicate an uptick on the UA/ AI front. UA still only sells 9W domestic sectors (say BLR-DEL-EWR - BLR-DEL is always on 9W), and 9W routinely sells UA on say BLR-BOM-LHR-SFO - with LHR-SFO being UA)..

Personally I hope that UA and AI tie up, and either one launches a non-stop on the DEL-SFO sector for starters. However given AI is already losing money hand over fist on their North American routes, I don't know if they can afford it.
Incredible India!
 
factsonly
Posts: 2744
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 12:42 pm

Quoting irishayes (Reply 75):
Was that why NW/KL alternated operating the AMS-BOM/DEL flights depending on the day of week? Something like NW would fly 1-3-5 and KL would do 2-4-6-7 on each? I recall seeing the dotted line route maps in Holland Herald and World Traveler magazines growing up denoting this.

The unique NW/KL arrangement you are referring to dates from the late 1990s during a previous India-NL bilateral in which airlines from both countries only had 7 frequencies per week between India and the Netherlands.

In order for each airline to serve DEL and BOM daily, KLM and Northwest split the two destinations between themselves on an identical schedule.

AMS-DEL-AMS:
- KLM operated Tue, Thu, Sat & Sun
- NW operated Mon, Wed, Fri

AMS-BOM-AMS:
- KLM operates Mon, Wed, Fri
- NW operated Tue, Thu, Sat, Sun

In those days BG (2x weekly), TG (2x weekly) and FF (Tower Air 1x weekly) also operated the DEL-AMS route.

Later, in cooperation with AZ, KLM applied the same technique for its Europe-Australia flights using KL B744s, where KLM operated daily to Australia, but on alternate days AMS-SYD (on behalf of KLM) and MXP-SYD (on behalf of AZ). The B744 aircraft would operate AMS-SIN-SYD-SIN-MXP-SIN-SYD-SIN-AMS.

These were the early days of airline alliances and we witnessed some interesting scheduling experiments.
 
ripcordd
Posts: 1079
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2000 1:12 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting bharathkv (Reply 57):

Cause they forced off the other US airlines that were on the same routes as them.....AI always priced their ORD-DEL service low so low that AA wasn't able to make$$$ despite a full plane AA left the market and now AI has the only non-stop which raises price. But they were able to keep low $$$ long enough to force them off since it's state owned they are not worried about being profitable.
 
max999
Posts: 1177
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:05 am

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:21 pm

I think out of all the replies, the answer can be summed up as -

Most non stop flights from US to India are not high-yielding enough to overcome the very high cost typical of any ultra long haul flight. Thus, opportunities are minimal for US airlines to run these flights. Other airlines with natural geographic advantages like in the Middle East and even Europe, can fly to India at lower cost using one stop flights from the US.

[Edited 2014-09-09 11:23:17]
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
User avatar
IrishAyes
Posts: 2408
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:04 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:25 pm

Quoting factsonly (Reply 80):
The unique NW/KL arrangement you are referring to dates from the late 1990s during a previous India-NL bilateral in which airlines from both countries only had 7 frequencies per week between India and the Netherlands.

In order for each airline to serve DEL and BOM daily, KLM and Northwest split the two destinations between themselves on an identical schedule.

AMS-DEL-AMS:
- KLM operated Tue, Thu, Sat & Sun
- NW operated Mon, Wed, Fri

AMS-BOM-AMS:
- KLM operates Mon, Wed, Fri
- NW operated Tue, Thu, Sat, Sun

Nice! thank you! great info! any details on the equipment on the AMSBOM and AMSDEL routes?
 
S75752
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:06 pm

Quoting Nimish (Reply 79):

Yeah I'm aware of that, I find that really interesting, and I wonder how awkward a situation it'll make for if/when they do switch over.
I personally would have preferred 9W to be *A'd but the EY business might have prevented that. It seems like 9W has had fewer troubles than AI has.
 
upwardfacing
Posts: 423
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:56 am

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:24 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 78):
Well I'm not going to bother arguing that any further, apart from all the other ULH routes seemed like they gave it a shot, some worked some didn't... And I'm left wondering if the decision makers had the same skepticism toward it or not.

What I was referring to is overall travel time, Here to DEL. The durations of other ultra long haul flights around the range that I estimated seem to adhere fairly well to the 16-17 hour length, but I confess I don't know the other factors that could influence that further, and I would love to learn more about them, as I do through each of your posts.

My apologies if I came off as rude or arrogant. I am no expert either. Fact is, probably nobody here knows all the factors going into the calculation, but it has not stopped A.netters from predicting a nonstop--based on only limited or outright wrong information--for maybe the last ten years. Keep in mind that the airlines have not said a word. (Though IIRC, AI looked into it around 2009.) After other unsuccessful experiments like LAX-BKK and ATL-BOM (and even LAX-SIN), I'm not surprised. Just to reiterate what I heard, the 77L technically *could* do the route, but it would not be economically viable. Yes, even an extra hour of flying time makes a difference to the bottom line.

Regarding technical resources, the issue is not so much what is behind an industry subscription, but the simple fact that most of us here don't have the knowledge and training to do the job.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:35 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 65):
5. DEL is a more logical connection point for most of India compared to BOM when coming in from SFO

Also means paying high Russian and Chinese overflight/ATC charges.

 
upwardfacing
Posts: 423
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:56 am

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:04 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 86):

No passenger commercial aircraft is going to fly on the path you are proposing, thanks to the high elevation regions north of the Subcontinent, for safety reasons.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Why Only 1 US Airline To India?

Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:19 am

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 87):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 86):


No passenger commercial aircraft is going to fly on the path you are proposing, thanks to the high elevation regions north of the Subcontinent, for safety reasons.

Even if they deviated somewhat to the west they'd still be overflying a large portion of Russia and even more of China.

Do you have a source for the restrictions on overflying the Himalayas? I thought many longhaul flights, expecially 4-engine types, did overfly that region.

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