|Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):|
Based on the production cost of the early frames, plus all the re-work and costs related to their long-term storage, I believe it would have to be in the nine-figures range, which would be multiples of whatever their sale price was.
Last I looked, the 787 was ~$14B in the hole. If ever 'terrible teen' lost 9 figures, that would take the program to break even very quickly based on expenses to be borne by the entire program. This includes costs for LN1, LN2, and LN3. Since LN1 should have been planned as a 'write off' from day1... And the development and flight test costs should be amortized over the whole production line, I think you are being pessimistic. I was expecting a figure in the $200 to $300M USD range. Note: Note based off any detailed analysis, that is just my 'gut feel.' While the 'terrible teens' are a problem, they wouldn't account for *all* of the program cost over-runs.
I was wondering if they could have been bad enough to be $500M of loss per frame... But I think the upper end of my prior estimate ($300M) is probably about right...
|Quoting seabosdca (Reply 48):|
I don't think the non-sale of 2 and 3 says anything about the 787 itself; it's purely a consequence of bad program management.
Agreed. The Interface control documents (ICDs) were not up to Boeing's prior standards and that was due to program management rushing everything to a ridiculous degree. That resulted in parts being built to print, but without proper definition! e.g., Mitsubishi making wing box's 1cm too short, yet to print!
FWIW, the wing box is the part *everything* else is build off of and its been know to hold their overall tolerance very tight to ensure the whole airframe is aligned.
|Quoting kanban (Reply 50):|
While I was familiar with that scenario when still working, I found it was mostly prevalent in the 2nd through 4th levels of management.. and a lot of it in the green "can do it" MBAs..
my experience of Mullaly was that he would listen, and attempt to grasp grasp your concerns.. but boy if you were unprepared or running on "because we don't do it that way" watch out.
And a schedule you had to meet. So if that passed the problem on to the next stage (where it costs 10X as much to correct...), so be it.
4 months without TV. The best decision of my life.