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kanban
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:40 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 49):
All stemming from "if it's not the answer I want, I don't want to hear it".

While I was familiar with that scenario when still working, I found it was mostly prevalent in the 2nd through 4th levels of management.. and a lot of it in the green "can do it" MBAs..

my experience of Mullaly was that he would listen, and attempt to grasp grasp your concerns.. but boy if you were unprepared or running on "because we don't do it that way" watch out.
 
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kngkyle
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:40 am

Saw this while walking by, had to go in and take a picture.

http://kngkyle.com/uploads/2014-09-10_2137.png
 
 
Jetstar315
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 4:06 am

Does anybody know what is delaying the first flight of ZB004 ZK-NZF?
It was rolled out on 10 July and is supposed to be delivered in under 2 weeks time.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:37 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
Based on the production cost of the early frames, plus all the re-work and costs related to their long-term storage, I believe it would have to be in the nine-figures range, which would be multiples of whatever their sale price was.

Last I looked, the 787 was ~$14B in the hole. If ever 'terrible teen' lost 9 figures, that would take the program to break even very quickly based on expenses to be borne by the entire program. This includes costs for LN1, LN2, and LN3. Since LN1 should have been planned as a 'write off' from day1... And the development and flight test costs should be amortized over the whole production line, I think you are being pessimistic. I was expecting a figure in the $200 to $300M USD range. Note: Note based off any detailed analysis, that is just my 'gut feel.' While the 'terrible teens' are a problem, they wouldn't account for *all* of the program cost over-runs.

I was wondering if they could have been bad enough to be $500M of loss per frame... But I think the upper end of my prior estimate ($300M) is probably about right...

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 48):
I don't think the non-sale of 2 and 3 says anything about the 787 itself; it's purely a consequence of bad program management.

Agreed. The Interface control documents (ICDs) were not up to Boeing's prior standards and that was due to program management rushing everything to a ridiculous degree. That resulted in parts being built to print, but without proper definition! e.g., Mitsubishi making wing box's 1cm too short, yet to print!    FWIW, the wing box is the part *everything* else is build off of and its been know to hold their overall tolerance very tight to ensure the whole airframe is aligned.

Quoting kanban (Reply 50):
While I was familiar with that scenario when still working, I found it was mostly prevalent in the 2nd through 4th levels of management.. and a lot of it in the green "can do it" MBAs..

my experience of Mullaly was that he would listen, and attempt to grasp grasp your concerns.. but boy if you were unprepared or running on "because we don't do it that way" watch out.

And a schedule you had to meet. So if that passed the problem on to the next stage (where it costs 10X as much to correct...), so be it.

Lightsaber
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ual747-600
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:28 pm

Can we please stop with the uninformed and speculative financial analysis of the 787 program and limit discussion to the topic of 787 Production/Delivery. If you feel it necessary to discuss other aspects of the 787 program, start a new thread!!

Thank you

UAL747-600

[Edited 2014-09-11 07:28:36]

[Edited 2014-09-11 07:29:13]
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:23 pm

G-VNEW is out on the flightline.

http://paineairport.com/images/kpae10675.png

Photo by Matt Cawby

http://paineairport.com/kpae10675.htm
Life is encrypted, you are modified, Like a virus in a lullaby, Artificial till the day you die, silly programme, You're corrupted
 
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Finn350
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 4:42 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 38):
Nope, not yet. The teens and their attendant production costs are sitting in inventory and some of that inventory value will have to be written off when any teen is either delivered or scrapped. To my knowledge none of it has been written off to date.

Boeing uses program accounting in which the deferred production cost accumulates the cumulative production cost exceeding the cumulative sales income.

The work in process including the deferred production cost of the 787 program is about $30 billion at the moment and still increasing meaning that each plane delivered is more expensive to produce than the sales income from those planes. Boeing expects to recover the work in process including deferred production cost from future orders (otherwise Boeing would have to book a reach-forward loss).

From the work in process including deferred production cost point of view it really doesn't matter when they sell the "terrible teen" frames as their cost is already accumulated and to be recoverd later. It is only if the planes are not sold at all but scrapped that Boeing might remove the production cost of those planes from the work in process including deferred production cost and book a one-time write-off instead (frames LN1-3 were written off this way as development costs).
 
B787register
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:06 pm

They should use one of the early frames to do a controlled flight into terrain to see how well a 787 would fair in the accident. Like they did a couple of years ago with the 727. I guess a lot of people would be interested in a real aircraft in a real flying condition would stand up in am accident
David C
 
n471wn
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:53 pm

Quoting b787register (Reply 58):
They should use one of the early frames to do a controlled flight into terrain to see how well a 787 would fair in the accident. Like they did a couple of years ago with the 727. I guess a lot of people would be interested in a real aircraft in a real flying condition would stand up in am accident

I hope you are kidding and if you are not then shame on you
 
Sooner787
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:39 am

That new Virgin 789 is definitely on my top 5

favorite Dreamliner liveries list   
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:14 am

Another photo:

http://paineairport.com/images/kpae10676.png
Life is encrypted, you are modified, Like a virus in a lullaby, Artificial till the day you die, silly programme, You're corrupted
 
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seabosdca
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:44 pm

Boeing scheduled a B-1 flight for ZB198 (ANA 787-9, LN 202).

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE198
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:01 pm

 
WarpSpeed
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:40 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 63):
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/l...id=-1&sortasc=true&rowsperpage=250

That's a very impressive spreadsheet! Yours or from someone else?

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 62):
Boeing scheduled a B-1 flight for ZB198 (ANA 787-9, LN 202).

Been wondering about this one. Its due for a September delivery.
DaHjaj jaj QaQ Daghajjaj !!!!
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 64):

mine   got plenty of free time, at least until march i guess

thank you for your kind words
 
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fca767
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:19 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 65):

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 64):

mine   got plenty of free time, at least until march i guess

thank you for your kind words

cool, what do you reckon on a date for the virgin delivery based on the past aircraft?   I'm going to livestream when the 787 lands at heathrow and then film it at the hanger all night  
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:52 pm

Quoting fca767 (Reply 66):

IMO from B1 till delivery it will need at least 25-30 days but that's just me   but don't worry we will know at least a week before the delivery date   NYC777 inside info says that delivery is taking place 5/10 but i expect to be delayed 5-10 days
 
anstar
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:23 pm

Quoting fca767 (Reply 66):
cool, what do you reckon on a date for the virgin delivery based on the past aircraft?

5 OCT is the current scheduled delivery date.
 
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fca767
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:51 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 67):
IMO from B1 till delivery it will need at least 25-30 days but that's just me   but don't worry we will know at least a week before the delivery date   NYC777 inside info says that delivery is taking place 5/10 but i expect to be delayed 5-10 days
Quoting anstar (Reply 68):
5 OCT is the current scheduled delivery date.

holy virgin! Thanks both of you for letting me know  Smile I've been desperate to get to heathrow from manchester and was just stretching it to wait for this but i think i'll go before then now and do some windy videos instead, i can't wait any longer lol

[Edited 2014-09-12 13:53:32]
 
anstar
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:13 pm

I've been told 5 OCT is the delayed delivery... ie it was due late SEPT originally.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:14 pm

Quoting bradmovie (Reply 40):
noticed that AA's first -8 (LN241) is now in final assembly. Does anyone have any pics yet?
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 41):
Section 41 was spotted two days ago.

Another photo:

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxV8_1ECYAAsHCr.jpg:large
http://twitter.com/AmericanAir/status/510451578747121664/
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:21 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 43):
I'm starting to wonder whether flight test at Everett can keep up with the scheduled deliveries this month. Two 787-9s (LN 202 for ANA, LN 213 for ANZ) and three 787-8s (LN 210 for LAN, LN 214 for RJA, and LN 217 for Avianca) scheduled for delivery this month have yet to fly, less than three weeks before the end of the month.

Two down, three to go. Good day for first flights today, but there are just 12 working days left in the month... I'm still a bit skeptical that all of them will be delivered this month.
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 2:37 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 72):
Good day for first flights today, but there are just 12 working days left in the month...

Out on the flightline everyday is a working day so every one of these that Boeing is planning on delivering this month will be worked 24/7 x 18 to get the job done.
 
SCL767
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:01 am

Quoting boefan (Reply 63):
LAN #9 CC-BBI L/N 210 also filed today for a B1 test flight

LAN Airlines #9 CC-BBI L/N 210 returning back to KPAE during its B1 flight:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3862/15035262240_c9925808cf_b.jpgCC-BBI LAN Airlines Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner - C/N 38480 / LN 210 by Woodys Aeroimages, on Flickr
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:00 am

Nice aerial view of the 2nd Royal Jordanian 787:


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © KSK

What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
kaitak
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:14 am

Came across this schedule for future VS deliveries on another site (apologies if it has already been shared):

G VAHH Dream girl 10/14
G VOOH Miss chief 12/14
G VWHO Mystery girl 2/15
G VFAN Pin up girl 4/15
G VWOO Leading lady 6/15
G VBZZ Queen bee 7/15
G VSPY Miss Moneypenny 11/15
G VNYL Penny Lane 12/15
G VERY Miss Molly 1/16


(This excludes the first one, 'VNEW, which will be called "Birthday Girl").
 
anstar
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:54 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 76):
G VAHH Dream girl 10/14
G VOOH Miss chief 12/14
G VWHO Mystery girl 2/15
G VFAN Pin up girl 4/15
G VWOO Leading lady 6/15
G VBZZ Queen bee 7/15
G VSPY Miss Moneypenny 11/15
G VNYL Penny Lane 12/15
G VERY Miss Molly 1/16

Not sure what sight you saw it on, but I was under the impression ZIG was coming in after AHH and OHH.

Also aircraft #7 is going to be G-VCRU and named Olicia Rae (name of the daughter) of the crew member who was tragically killed in St Lucia.
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:18 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 77):

You can check NYC777's spreadsheet as its the same there.
Life is encrypted, you are modified, Like a virus in a lullaby, Artificial till the day you die, silly programme, You're corrupted
 
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fca767
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:28 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 77):
ZIG was coming in after AHH and OHH.

Spice girls? ZIGG AHH ZIGG AHH
 
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Miami
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:36 pm

43-46 section for Virgin Atlantic 787-9 was moved from the Dreamlifter Operations Center to the factory.

http://paineairport.com/images/kpae10677.jpg

http://kpae.blogspot.com/
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:40 pm

Quoting Jetstar315 (Reply 53):
Does anybody know what is delaying the first flight of ZB004 ZK-NZF?
It was rolled out on 10 July and is supposed to be delivered in under 2 weeks time.

Per Matt Cawby, ZB004 should make its first flight today (Saturday).
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Miami
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:47 pm

Qatar Airways (A7-BCP) landing after a B2 flight.

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3873/15017491887_3707382dc8_o.jpgQatar Airways Boeing 787-8 A7-BCP by royalscottking, on Flickr
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:30 pm

Xiamen Airlines #2 B-2769 L/N 227 filed for a B1 test flight today

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE681
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 64):
Quoting boefan (Reply 63):http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/l...id=-1&sortasc=true&rowsperpage=250

That's a very impressive spreadsheet! Yours or from someone else?

  

But in some cases not accurate, just their best guess (I. e. QTR ZA475's flight on the 11th was not a C-1)
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:01 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 83):
But in some cases not accurate, just their best guess (I. e. QTR ZA475's flight on the 11th was not a C-1)

you are right sorry didn't had internet for 4 days (only mobile) and couldn't see the duration nor the flightpath i know that KPAE-KMWH-KPAE is used 95% on B1 and C1 test flights and sometimes for FCF . Changed it now thanks for noticing 
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:46 am

Top view of G-VNEW, can see the painted raked wingtips more clearly:

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3894/15042980177_18762fbaba_b.jpgG-VNEW by Powercube, on Flickr
Life is encrypted, you are modified, Like a virus in a lullaby, Artificial till the day you die, silly programme, You're corrupted
 
Sooner787
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:08 am

I'm thinking I'll be adding a model of G-VNEW to my collection   
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:09 pm

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 86):

Another photo:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5586/15044829160_c0ac8e8ff0_b.jpg
Virgin Atlantic G-VNEW by Hull AeroImages, on Flickr

[Edited 2014-09-14 06:10:02]
Life is encrypted, you are modified, Like a virus in a lullaby, Artificial till the day you die, silly programme, You're corrupted
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:43 pm

Air New Zealand B789 ZK-NZF L/N 213 filed for a B1 test flight today

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE4
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:46 pm

photo of Air New Zealand ZK-NZF L/N 213 arriving from a B1 test flight
http://www.flickr.com/photos/krislhull/15054427147/

[Edited 2014-09-14 16:47:14]
 
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lightsaber
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:19 am

Quoting b787register (Reply 58):

They should use one of the early frames to do a controlled flight into terrain to see how well a 787 would fair in the accident. Like they did a couple of years ago with the 727. I guess a lot of people would be interested in a real aircraft in a real flying condition would stand up in am accident

Interesting idea.

Legally, this would only hurt Boeing and should be avoided. The military has crashed enough carbon fiber aircraft that their crash performance is known 'well enough.' In particular the B-2 crashing in guam:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Andersen_Air_Force_Base_B-2_accident

Look for images of the crashed "Spirit of Kansas." She did well upon impact.

Also, look for images of the F117 shot down over Belgrade. it survived very intact. I would rather be in a CFRP plane (better shock dampening than aluminum).

Lightsaber
4 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
hkcanadaexpat
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:23 am

Next up...

Deliveries:
> 5Y-KZE (Kenyan Airways #5) (@ Charleston) [EIS: 20-Oct]
> HS-TQB (ILFC #14/Thai Airways #2) [EIS: 20-Sep]
> A7-BCP (Qatar Airways #16) [EIS: 26-Oct]
> VT-ANR (Air India #17) (@ Charleston)

First Flights:
> N780AV (Avianca #1)
> JY-BAB (ILFC #15/Royal Jordanian #2)
> B-2769 (Xiamen Airlines #2) (@ Charleston)
> A7-BCQ (Qatar Airways #17)
> JY-BAC (CIT Leasing #1/Royal Jordanian #3)
> G-VNEW (Virgin Atlantic Airways #1)

FAL Rollout:
> A6-BGA (Etihad Airways #1)
> JY-BAF (ILFC #17/Royal Jordanian #5)
> VT-ANS (Air India #18) (@ Charleston)

Cheers
A
 
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zkokq
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:05 pm

Is anyone else surprised... #18 for AI! Well done to them!
 
Sooner787
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 3:09 pm

Quoting zkokq (Reply 93):
Is anyone else surprised... #18 for AI! Well done to them!

Well done to whoever cobbled together the financing for these birds,

always seems to be some drama involved in almost every delivery   
 
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seabosdca
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 4:24 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 89):
Air New Zealand B789 ZK-NZF L/N 213 filed for a B1 test flight today

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE4

Edit: I can't read.  drunk  The flight went off as scheduled.

[Edited 2014-09-15 09:27:39]
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 4:31 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 95):
Didn't make it yesterday, but they're trying again today.

It was a successful B1 the aircraft flew for 2 hours and 30 minutes

what do you mean excactly?
 
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seabosdca
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 4:48 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 96):
what do you mean excactly?

I misread the date on the flight plan...
 
boefan
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:28 pm

Just something i noticed (sorry not 100% relative to B787 but includes those also)

July 16-31 : 12 widebodies delivered (4 x B788 + 1 x B789 + 1 x B748 + 6 x B777)

August 1-15 : 11 widebodies delivered (8 x B788 + 3 x B777)
August 16-31 : 14 widebodies delivered (7 x B788 + 4 x B777 + 3 x B748)
August total : 25 widebodies delivered (15 x B788 + 7 x B777 + 3 x B748)

September 1-15 : 4 widebodies delivered (1 x B788 + 1 x B789 + 1 x B763 + 1 x B777)
and just 8 more aircrafts have completed customer flights

Boeing have a tendency of delivering more aircraft at the 2Q of every month but September was a bit low don't u think?
Can we expect 20 aircraft to be delivered in the next 15 days?

Just curious  
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production/Delivery Thread Part 33

Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:41 pm

Boeing will probably deliver 12 787s in September.

For today this is what I've heard they'll be doing in terms of 787 flights:

LN 210 - B2 flight
LN 214 - B1 flight
LN 216 - C1 flight
LN 217 - B1 flight
LN 220 - B4 flight
LN 227 - B1 flight

This is all projected for today and so far none of these flight have come through.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.

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