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dfwjim1
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AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:39 am

American Airlines service from LAX to Sao Paulo, Brasil has been running for some time now so I am wondering if this flight has reduced patronage on the DFW to GRU flight. Is this the kind of thing that AA would keep track of in determining the viability of the LAX to GRU flight?

Thanks for your responses.
 
G500
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:53 am

LAX has something that DFW does not have, lots and lots of connecting passengers from Asia

Korean's ICN-LAX-GRU seems to be doing all right
 
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RWA380
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:29 am

Quoting G500 (Reply 1):
Korean's ICN-LAX-GRU seems to be doing all righ

I always wondered why JL stopped flying NRT-JFK-GRU given the Japanese population in Brazil.
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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:33 am

Yeah i think AA is relying on connections from Asia, Hawaii, LAS, Alaska Airlines Flights to make this flight work. Lets hope it does work out for AA! They are pretty huge in Brazil so i think they will be able to pull it off. Lets all keep our fingers crossed. Rio doesn't seem like its even a possibility, lets just hope they can make GRU work.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:44 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 3):
Yeah i think AA is relying on connections from Asia, Hawaii, LAS, Alaska Airlines Flights to make this flight work.

Chances are the majority of the traffic is local. It isn't timed well for most Asia connections and LAX-Brazil is a huge market.

SFO, LAS and SAN are probably the most important feeders, and maybe HKG on Cathay.
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AA767400
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:10 am

I believe once the 772 goes to 2-class, it will do even better. Heck, even a nice 788 would work best.

On a side note - The eastbound departure leaves a lot earlier than before. From a 2230 departure, to a 1940 departure starting this month. What I find odd, is that this flight does not have a codeshare with JJ. One would think it would be good for both airlines in oneworld.
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LAXintl
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:58 am

This summer I've seen several $800'ish fares on the route, so its likely not exactly very high yielding. I think there was even a $690 offer briefly.
Also interestingly its often priced lower than connections via DFW/MIA, a bit opposite of typical pricing where nonstops can be more expensive than connections.
Lets see how it does this winter as it enters peak travel period.
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LAXintl
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:10 am

Quoting G500 (Reply 1):
Korean's ICN-LAX-GRU seems to be doing all right

KE's never had high LF, actually quite low 60-70% on the route. LipeGIG in the past used to post these.

Also effective this month KE reduced frequency, and also has continued to deploy the smaller 772 versus 77W.
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mercure1
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:21 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 2):
I always wondered why JL stopped flying NRT-JFK-GRU given the Japanese population in Brazil.

Safe to say they were bleeding serious ¥ ¥ ¥ on the route.

Flying halfway around the world for ethnic diaspora does not sound like a recipe for success. ( I know - look at AF&TN)

[Edited 2014-09-12 22:22:25]
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MaverickM11
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:42 am

These are the first three months of LF available, DEC/JAN/FEB: 78% 82% 65%, or an average of 75%, on a 12 hour flight whose average fares are probably well below both DFW and MIA. I suspect it has temporarily been granted sacred cow status, between the LAX hub and Brazilian presence.

Quoting G500 (Reply 1):
LAX has something that DFW does not have, lots and lots of connecting passengers from Asia

TK/EK/QR/EY/ even ET are hoovering that up like nobody's business and the fares have tumbled. If you're not making money on the local market, the flow will only sink you further.
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HKG212
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:15 pm

Quoting G500 (Reply 1):
LAX has something that DFW does not have, lots and lots of connecting passengers from Asia

Not on AA or Oneworld -- certainly not beyond what AA already has in DFW (NRT, ICN, HKG). There is also the QF feed from SYD. Must be mostly O/D, not surprising given that AA has such an extensive Brazil network.
 
deltaflyertoo
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:28 pm

For those running on the assumption that the route is ideal for Asian traffic-not the case. The only Asian country this may hold true for is Japan (maybe Korea?). If you calculate air miles distance once you go west of Japan it is a lot faster and less distance to get to Brazil going westbound. I imagine Emirates is doing well with this (connecting all of Asia through Dubai then on to S. America and Brazil).
 
N1120A
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 2):
I always wondered why JL stopped flying NRT-JFK-GRU given the Japanese population in Brazil.

TWOV is the biggest reason.

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 5):
I believe once the 772 goes to 2-class, it will do even better. Heck, even a nice 788 would work best.

This seems tailormade for a 787

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 8):
Flying halfway around the world for ethnic diaspora does not sound like a recipe for success.

Ask LH, KL and TK how much money they make on taking ethnic disapora from Los Angeles to Iran and Armenia. It works in some markets.

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 10):
There is also the QF feed from SYD.

That is entirely too far out of the way to be viable. You can fly direct.
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LAXintl
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:20 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 12):
Ask LH, KL and TK how much money they make on taking ethnic disapora from Los Angeles to Iran and Armenia. It works in some markets.

Very different situation than the JAL GRU example.

LH, KL, TK flights are to their home markets from LAX, with potential of beyond connection.
These airlines can manage allocation of capacity and fares to optimize revenues among all their connections.

JAL ran a 12hour flight to JFK, then another 10 hour leg to Brazil.
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N1120A
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:27 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):

JAL ran a 12hour flight to JFK, then another 10 hour leg to Brazil.

Yet they could carry NRT-JFK, NRT-GRU and JFK-GRU on it. I don't see much of a difference, especially with a good deal of feed at JFK
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mercure1
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:33 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 14):
Yet they could carry NRT-JFK, NRT-GRU and JFK-GRU on it. I don't see much of a difference, especially with a good deal of feed at JFK

This is like loss making AF & TN Tahiti services via LAX.

Yes airline has ability to sell all legs, but at the end the primarily reason for route, and client base are low revenue travelers from metropolitan France to Polynesia and back.

The days of such 5th and 7th freedom activity by airlines is behind. Today centralized hubs with spokes are the models.
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AF022
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:34 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 2):
I always wondered why JL stopped flying NRT-JFK-GRU given the Japanese population in Brazil.

I think they couldn't make this work after transit rules changed in the US. Everyone arriving has to go through customs even transit passengers. This is a huge pain and requires a lot of time and headaches. Why do that when you can connect via Europe or the Middle East without such problems?
 
MIflyer12
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:31 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 12):
Ask LH, KL and TK how much money they make on taking ethnic disapora from Los Angeles to Iran and Armenia. It works in some markets.

What's the median income of Iranian/Americans in LA? What the same stat for Japanese-Brazilians? Some diasporas are wealthier than others.
 
csavel
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:46 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 12):
Ask LH, KL and TK how much money they make on taking ethnic disapora from Los Angeles to Iran and Armenia. It works in some markets.

I am sure LH, KL, and TK make money on it but that really isn't 100% fair. What % of pax on those flights are connecting, and what percentage of *those* are connecting to Iran? Gravy to be sure, but again, not an example of the benefits of long-distance diaspora travel. Diaspora travellers are often families who shop around, fly when the kids are out of school and rarely go to the front of the plane where the real money is made. How do you fill up the front on a Thursday in November?

Ironically, Iran Air, assuming US Iran relations become better can probably make it work because despite what I said, LA is huge (2nd largest market in US) the Iranian diaspora is huge (largest iranian expat community in US) and there might be enough rich people with *business* ties to fill up the front. Ethnic markets like that are few and far between.
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KD5MDK
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:54 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):
Also interestingly its often priced lower than connections via DFW/MIA, a bit opposite of typical pricing where nonstops can be more expensive than connections.

To be fair, there are probably people closer to MIA that AA would rather sell those seats to, but it is a sign.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: AA LAX To GRU (Sao Paulo)?

Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:11 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 17):
What's the median income of Iranian/Americans in LA? What the same stat for Japanese-Brazilians? Some diasporas are wealthier than others.
Quoting csavel (Reply 18):
I am sure LH, KL, and TK make money on it but that really isn't 100% fair. What % of pax on those flights are connecting, and what percentage of *those* are connecting to Iran?

Again, much like Brazil-Asia, LAXIKA is now a bargain bin with QR/EK/EY/TK/SU all fighting for the same traffic, with fares regularly around $1000 roundtrip all in. J can be had for $3900, while LHR starts at $5700 
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