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YXwatcherMKE
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:58 am

Can WN continue to grow international destinations with only the 737's? Will there be a widebody a/c in the future for Southwest? Personally I don't think that it will be to long and WN will have to look at ordering an a/c like to 787 or similar sized a/c to meet the needs of the of the international markets. What say you?
I miss the 60's & 70's when you felt like a guest on the plane not cattle like today
 
QANTAS747-438
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:54 am

For expansion, I think the 737 is maxed out. Even the MAX adds 400mi extra range which won't cut it for deep South America. I predict 787 orders for 2020. The extra seats, cargo capacity, a Business Select class, and 5000mi range would be perfect for WN. Also, the 787 backlog is to 2020 so if WN wants it, they have to hop on it soon.

Possible routes: HOU-SCL, HOU-EZE, BWI-STN, FLL-EZE, HOU-HNL, LAX-EWR, LAX-STN.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
XFSUgimpLB41X
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:00 am

One trick pony. Only once the 737MAX is tapped out will they entertain a new fleet type.
Chicks dig winglets.
 
strfyr51
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:25 am

If WN expands internationally which I believe they will they Might consider a larger airplane. But whatever it is?
there will ONLY be one and I strongly suspect it will be a Boeing, More than Likely a B787-9
I just saw their Previous VP Maintenance services is now the President of MRO at TIMCO Aviation.
From the guys I know there He's a Heavy Boeing enthusiast,, but they are getting ready for work on the
B787 and A350 series It will be interesting to see where United winds up sending the B787
Heavy checks It wouldn't surprise me the see them at IAH, SFO , TIMCO or AAR.
But I'm guessing TIMCO In GSO.
I'd bet good money much of the evaluation work will be public knowledge
at WN before long on any Larger Boeing OR Airbus airplane they'd consider.
Airline Maintenance is nothing more than the "Mickey Mouse club" on a global Scale..
Most Everybody Knows Most everybody else in the industry and they keep in touch regularly. .
 
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aerolimani
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:41 am

Perhaps WN might take a more measured approach like that of WS. WS followed WN's model for many years, flying only B736, B737, and B738. Then, a few years ago, they started with some wet-leased Thomas Cook 757s, going from Alberta to Hawaii. Next, to test the overseas market, they began 737 flights from YYT to DUB. Now, they have announced that they are going to lease four B763's starting in late 2015, to be flown with WS crews. They say they are going to start with them between Alberta and Hawaii, and then expand into overseas markets in summer 2016.

I don't see why WN would necessarily jump straight into a brand new airframe like a B787-9. It might make more sense for them to test the market first with some leased older models (like a B763), and if it works out favourably, then spend on some brand new airframes.
 
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ssteve
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:43 am

I think it'd be interesting if they could establish international routes from Southwest fortresses to codeshare into existing LCC networks on other continents.
 
Andy33
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:58 am

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 5):
I think it'd be interesting if they could establish international routes from Southwest fortresses to codeshare into existing LCC networks on other continents.

That would rather depend on finding LCCs to codeshare with. Outside the USA a fair proportion of LCCs only operate on a point-to-point principle, so don't even connect with their own flights let alone anyone else's. They would need to change their business models substantially to actually provide a network at all for WN to codeshare onto. For instance in Europe the two largest LCCs, Ryanair and easyJet, are point-to-point only. The next largest, who do operate connections, are Norwegian and Vueling. But Norwegian has its own transatlantic flights, and Vueling is part of IAG so is not going to help WN go head-to-head with IB and BA. After that the remaining LCCs are small and mostly point-to-point again.

Then there's Australia or Africa - good luck in finding an LCC that's interested there.
 
davidho1985
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:46 pm

I believe, at most, WN will have one type of NB for domestic/ short haul and one of WB for international / mid-long haul flights.
 
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seabosdca
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:54 pm

On the one hand, it will be a seismic cultural and operational shift for them to adopt multiple types and international flying. It would be difficult and very expensive. On the other hand, they really have a major structural problem because there are very few growth markets available to them within 737 MAX range.

So I could see it happening, but it will be painful. I don't think it's WN's style to test the waters with a tiny operation like WestJet. I think if they do go international it will be full-bore, with a fairly major initial purchase (20 or more airframes) of new aircraft. Those aircraft would almost certainly be 787s with a configuration that is either all-economy or has a small number of low-end business seats. In such a dense configuration, the 787-8 might actually be the right airplane -- the 787-9 would have a huge number of seats and substantially increase the difficulty of the venture.
 
Okie
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:26 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 1):
Also, the 787 backlog is to 2020 so if WN wants it, they have to hop on it soon.

WN's new international FFL gates will not be ready for a full operation until 2017 and HOU is in the middle of a major revamp on the international side.
There is only distance at this point holding up the long reach pairings on the international side and nothing keeping them from the routes they have range to operate.

I really would not expect the choice of the airframe to take place until closer to 2020 who knows what the market will look like then.
I would think from there track record that the 787 would be their first choice but lots of things can change in that amount of time an A350 maybe to their liking 7 or more years down the road.
In that amount of time there could be some 787's on the lease market to start operations to test the routes without having to pony up and buy frames to test their viability.


Okie
 
bohica
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:47 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 1):
Possible routes: HOU-SCL, HOU-EZE

Just a question. Can a 787 do HOU-SCL/EZE without any restrictions? The two longest runways are 7600 feet.
 
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seabosdca
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:53 pm

Quoting bohica (Reply 10):
Just a question. Can a 787 do HOU-SCL/EZE without any restrictions? The two longest runways are 7600 feet.

A 787-8 could do those flights with no problem. It can lift about 95 t of payload + fuel off that runway on a hot day. 787-9 is not clear yet.
 
airplaneboy
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:56 pm

WN's CEO said there are ~ 50 markets/cities outisde of the mainland US that they can enter using the current 737 NG family of aircraft. Factor in how HUGE their domestic operation is and you easily have 50 cities *multiplied* by the various large WN stations from which they can fly to these markets. They can still grow by at least 200-300 frames to accomplish this growth in their traditional point-to-point model. I don't expect to see wide bodies nor another aircraft type until this growth begins.
 
Silver1SWA
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:05 pm

First thing I noticed with the new livery is how generic it is. It could be applied to any aircraft and still work. I wonder if they consciously chose something that leaves room for a new aircraft type in the (near?) future.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Sooner787
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:17 pm

Quoting Silver1SWA (Reply 13):
First thing I noticed with the new livery is how generic it is. It could be applied to any aircraft and still work. I wonder if they consciously chose something that leaves room for a new aircraft type in the (near?) future.

Could one of our resident artists here work up a 788 in the new WN livery?
 
Okie
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:25 pm

Quoting airplaneboy (Reply 12):
WN's CEO said there are ~ 50 markets/cities outisde of the mainland US that they can enter using the current 737 NG family of aircraft. Factor in how HUGE their domestic operation is and you easily have 50 cities *multiplied* by the various large WN stations from which they can fly to these markets. They can still grow by at least 200-300 frames to accomplish this growth in their traditional point-to-point model. I don't expect to see wide bodies nor another aircraft type until this growth begins.

  
That is pretty much it in a nutshell for quite some period of time.
We also have to throw into the mix that Venezuela and Argentina are having serious currency problems which do not appear to be anywhere near being ironed out in the near future.

Back to the airframe issue the 767's will become pretty extinct by that time which will require a new frame.
Whatever choice WN makes at the time that a new frame is required there just would not be much of anything that would carry forward from a 737.
That in itself would leave an opening for A or B and we still do not know exactly what a 797 is going to be yet either.


Okie
 
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zippyjet
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:05 pm

This is way out there. But how about us entertaining the thought of picking up some used 767 or 777 for the longer haul international routes. That is until the newest Boeing (737) replacement comes out. I'd like to see us have an input in getting it designed to our specs and needs. Hopefully that next airframe would be versatile where it could be several sizes/configurations including the concept of a shorter length wide body/twin isle cabin. This way the cabin frame could be a bit wider. Many say the Airbus 318-321 family have a wider cabin.
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
32andBelow
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:08 pm

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 16):
This is way out there. But how about us entertaining the thought of picking up some used 767 or 777 for the longer haul international routes. That is until the newest Boeing (737) replacement comes out. I'd like to see us have an input in getting it designed to our specs and needs. Hopefully that next airframe would be versatile where it could be several sizes/configurations including the concept of a shorter length wide body/twin isle cabin. This way the cabin frame could be a bit wider. Many say the Airbus 318-321 family have a wider cabin.

They would have to completely change the way they do business. Open boarding on a 777? Wide body gates? Longer turn times? Ground support for larger frames? Flight crew training, etc.
 
INFINITI329
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:15 pm

Quoting airplaneboy (Reply 12):
WN's CEO said there are ~ 50 markets/cities outisde of the mainland US that they can enter using the current 737 NG family of aircraft. Factor in how HUGE their domestic operation is and you easily have 50 cities *multiplied* by the various large WN stations from which they can fly to these markets. They can still grow by at least 200-300 frames to accomplish this growth in their traditional point-to-point model. I don't expect to see wide bodies nor another aircraft type until this growth begins.

I cant see 50 international markets (that will actually work for WN) in the range of the 737 Maxs. I see no more than 20 destinations
 
airplaneboy
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WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:25 pm

Infiniti, it's not just international. I said outside of the mainland US. Think Hawaiian Islands, Alaska, Canada, additional Mexico and Caribbean destinations, destinations throughout Central America, and northern South America. 50 markets can easily be found. Keep in mind some of these markets might be smaller cities with high tourism, and there might also be markets that have facilities that can't handle larger aircraft where the 737 can be the perfect aircraft to fly there.

[Edited 2014-09-24 11:28:11]
 
diverted
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:06 pm

Quoting aerolimani (Reply 4):

Perhaps WN might take a more measured approach like that of WS. WS followed WN's model for many years, flying only B736, B737, and B738. Then, a few years ago, they started with some wet-leased Thomas Cook 757s, going from Alberta to Hawaii. Next, to test the overseas market, they began 737 flights from YYT to DUB. Now, they have announced that they are going to lease four B763's starting in late 2015, to be flown with WS crews. They say they are going to start with them between Alberta and Hawaii, and then expand into overseas markets in summer 2016.

On that note, any chance WN would follow WS's steps in the other direction? WS was running out of city pairs they could utilize their 737's between, and then ordered 25 Q400's. They're now up to 13 aircraft I believe, from an original order of 20+25 options, of which ten have been exercised.

Is it possible we see WN place an ATR72 or Q400 order?
 
bohica
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:09 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 11):
Quoting bohica (Reply 10):
Just a question. Can a 787 do HOU-SCL/EZE without any restrictions? The two longest runways are 7600 feet.

A 787-8 could do those flights with no problem. It can lift about 95 t of payload + fuel off that runway on a hot day. 787-9 is not clear yet.

Thanks.  
 
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DocLightning
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:21 pm

The question is: "What does WN want to do that they can't do with the 737?" Well, right now, nothing.

So WN's entire business model is currently centered around having one type. Every WN pilot can fly every WN plane. Every WN ramper can handle every WN plane. Every WN mech can fix every WN plane. That gives them a sort of flexibility that network operators can't enjoy. There are downsides, too. The only way to add capacity to a route is to add frequency (or go from 73G to 738). And, of course, the range of the 73G limits their ability to cross oceans.

WN serves very few slot-restricted markets that necessitate larger aircraft and they don't seem to be interested in operating transoceanic flights at this time. As it stands, the 737 can reach a good portion of South America and all of North America (including all of Mexico and Central America) nonstop.

Until WN finds a need to fly to Europe and Asia, I doubt we will see any widebodies. And somehow, I don't feel like the long-haul LCC model will work as well out of the US as it does out of Asia and Europe.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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INFINITI329
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:24 pm

Quoting airplaneboy (Reply 19):

Infiniti, it's not just international. I said outside of the mainland US. Think Hawaiian Islands, Alaska, Canada, additional Mexico and Caribbean destinations,

The only domestic markets left outside the lower 48 is Hawaii, Alaska and the USVI. Everything else is international. I only see three to four viable markets for WN in central america. It would have been five but took WN took care of that one (Costa Rica). WN doesn't have regional jets like UA & AA/US does, so they cant fly into some the smaller Central American cities as the 737 would be overkill. The caribbean I see another 4-5 oppurtnites depending on the type of traffic they want to attract and cities they would run these routes from. For Canada the typical culprits.(but i rather WN not fly there on their own metal ill posting my suggestion later in the week). Still no where near 50, not running the 737 at least.

Quoting diverted (Reply 20):
On that note, any chance WN would follow WS's steps in the other direction? WS was running out of city pairs they could utilize their 737's between, and then ordered 25 Q400's. They're now up to 13 aircraft I believe, from an original order of 20+25 options, of which ten have been exercised.

Is it possible we see WN place an ATR72 or Q400 order?

If WN wants to expand to smaller domestic markets this would be a necessary evil. Afters WN maxes out MAX they'll have two choices go bigger or go smaller. I personally would love see the Q400 in WN colors I feel like it would open up some routes that are currently unsustainable with the 737
 
32andBelow
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:27 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 23):
If WN wants to expand to smaller domestic markets this would be a necessary evil. Afters WN maxes out MAX they'll have two choices go bigger or go smaller. I personally would love see the Q400 in WN colors I feel like it would open up some routes that are currently unsustainable with the 737

Considering they are currently running an add promoting that they don't have RJ's it would be tough. Maybe they could bid it out as a CPA feed but it would be a change of their current plan.
 
N1120A
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:04 pm

The very real and viable markets outside the Lower 48 that WN could open tomorrow, if they had enough planes, Altea fully implemented and ETOPS is pretty impressive. Probably could double their destinations.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
hamster
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:39 pm

What is the market for 767's sitting in the bone yards? What is the supply of these planes and the condition? How much life is left in them?
 
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zippyjet
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:52 pm

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 17):

I know that. One of the cunundrums (excuse spelling) of taking that plunge. If we were seriously going to entertain the notion of an additional aircraft type, I'd approach Boeing. When I posted earlier, I totally forgot theirs a bird that could fill the bill for us and be relatively close to the 737. The venerable 757. I know there have been multiple threads that Boeing wouldn't entertain making new 757's. But, how about a 757 Max complete with energy efficient engines the ones like on the 787 with the unique nacelle aft ports and scimtar winglets and voila we can fly our LUV with a larger capacity/range aircraft with minimal disruption and re-training. Standard gates could handle them. Heck even DCA has 757 flights and in a pinch for some of the primitive international airports where hard stand boarding is all the rage, a 757 can do.
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
Okie
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:14 am

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 27):
The venerable 757. I know there have been multiple threads that Boeing wouldn't entertain making new 757's. But, how about a 757 Max complete with energy efficient engines the ones like on the 787 with the unique nacelle aft ports and scimtar winglets and voila we can fly our LUV with a larger capacity/range aircraft with minimal disruption and re-training

The 737-900ER is going to do 90% of what a 757 would do and fit at the gate with an off the shelf product with more fuel efficient engines.
215 passengers single class.

Okie
 
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seabosdca
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:22 am

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 27):
The venerable 757.

  

Now if you mean an all-new aircraft sized like the 757... I'm sure Boeing has something in the works for the 2020s, and I'm equally sure WN will be a launch customer.
 
mwh787
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:23 am

Simple WN should buy a large percent of ownership of CM (like Continental had, I think they had 49%). Copa would make a very good strategic parter. They could share lots as the have same fleets (737's) Copa's hub in PTY opens all of South America to WN.
 
FLALEFTY
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:26 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):

WN has plenty of opportunities to continue growth in the North American market. The 73G/738/737MAX & 738MAX give them the right aircraft to optimize their routes. Flying TATL and TransPac is a crowded market. South America offers opportunities, but the 737-series (as COPA has proven) can work fine.
 
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zippyjet
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:27 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):

A versatile design that could either be single or twin aisle with all the new light weight materials and efficient engines. IN the meantime how about the thought of picking up some used 757's till the 737-900 ER's come out and 737 Max?
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
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seabosdca
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:38 am

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 32):
A versatile design that could either be single or twin aisle with all the new light weight materials and efficient engines.

Twin aisle smaller than the 787 is a nonstarter. The weight to floor space ratio is just too poor to be competitive. OEMs keep looking at the configuration and keep rejecting it because the economics just don't make sense.

I don't see any need for used 757s because WN won't be starting up service requiring flights longer than 7 hours in the short term. By the time WN is ready Boeing will also probably be ready.
 
strfyr51
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:40 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 8):
On the one hand, it will be a seismic cultural and operational shift for them to adopt multiple types and international flying. It would be difficult and very expensive. On the other hand, they really have a major structural problem because there are very few growth markets available to them within 737 MAX range.

***************************************************************************************************************************************************
I don't think it would be any more traumatic for WN than for UA taking the B787.
You guys seem to place limits on WN's accumen but I KNOW they have the smarts to do it. It's only a matter of?
Do they want to take th step ? And if so?? When?? Everything else is just Semantics.
It just ain;t that Serious!!
 
737tdi
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:16 am

Something that has not been addressed much here is gate room. I have been to a lot of different WN destinations rampside and from what I can see most are very limited by aircraft wing span and length. Maybe a retrofit of a couple of gates? On know here at DAL it just isn't possible unless a gate were removed, I understand that DAL is not allowed intl. but there is a future. Looking at the AUS gates I see the same, SAT, ELP, MCI, I do see STL being able to because there is tons of room. I haven't had the fortune of many west coast stations. I have worked OMA but don't recall the setup. I just think that most of our stations are just to dedicated to narrow bodies. This could be rectified at some stations but very few that I mentioned.
 
ABQopsHP
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:54 am

So far Ive seen posts regarding WN going up in size of a/c. What about an a/c in the 100 seat range? Such as the 767. I would have loved it if they kept the 717 but since fleet commonality was the priority I can see why they got rid of those. I know the 767 is a heavy a/c but could WN have made it work on routes such as CRP-HOU or other short haul flights, or even longer thin routes? Just asking.

JD CRP
ABQ ops, Cactus 202 requesting you order 5 Green Chile Chicken stew for us to p/u on arrival. ;)
 
ODwyerPW
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:22 am

Fort Lauderdale Florida can reach allot of places in South America,
provided the the 737 8MAX really is good for 6,667km and can be certified ETOPS120.
All major cities in Brazil are reacheable. Far away places like Lima Peru, Santiago Chile and reachable.
Buenos Aires Argentina is not reachable... well maybe by the skin of it's teeth it's reachable by the 737 7MAX... but that's a long thin route to carry just 143pax.

It's that so much of South America actually sits east of North America. It's not a straight drop.
learning never stops.
 
planemaker
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:34 am

Quoting okie (Reply 15):
  
That is pretty much it in a nutshell for quite some period of time.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):
Until WN finds a need to fly to Europe and Asia, I doubt we will see any widebodies.

Interesting seeing people dream about WN flying widebodies, isn't it. It simply ain't gonna happen.

Quoting okie (Reply 28):
The 737-900ER is going to do 90% of what a 757 would do and fit at the gate with an off the shelf product with more fuel efficient engines.

And one heck of a lot cheaper to buy with better residuals.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:38 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 38):

Interesting seeing people dream about WN flying widebodies, isn't it. It simply ain't gonna happen.

Well, they kinda have to if they ever think about transpacific flights. Even transatlantic flights would be difficult given a all Y/Y+ configuration.

A 787 with all Y+ (in 9Y config) would work pretty well slotting in at 2x 738 loads easing integration. More over international terminals would be used for these flights, and they will have gates sized approprately.
 
planemaker
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:06 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 39):
Well, they kinda have to if they ever think about transpacific flights. Even transatlantic flights would be difficult given a all Y/Y+ configuration.

As others have pointed out, they have so much hemispheric opportunities that going transatlantic or transpacific is a nonstarter for them.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:13 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 38):
It simply ain't gonna happen

Was what I was responding to

Quoting planemaker (Reply 40):
As others have pointed out, they have so much hemispheric opportunities that going transatlantic or transpacific is a nonstarter for them.

Never is a very very long time. I fully agree with you that I can't see it in the next decade even if Boeing tossed them free 787 leases. But after that? The market will drive the choices of what they plan at that time. I can't imagine even then they will order widebodies, but... the future is often unpredictable.
 
planemaker
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:38 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 41):
I can't imagine even then they will order widebodies, but... the future is often unpredictable.

I know that it is tempting to think "what if" but little from their playbook is useful for transoceanic operation with no competitive advantage against a lot of headwinds. This I believe is eminently predictable.  
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TWA772LR
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:54 am

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 1):
Possible routes: HOU-SCL, HOU-EZE, BWI-STN, FLL-EZE, HOU-HNL, LAX-EWR, LAX-STN

Slow your roll with the HOU talk. They have serious runway constraints and Hobby literally has no place to expand.

I think that by 2020, the 737 max and A320 neo will have the PiP boosts needed to be TATL range. I'm calling on BOS for this one. That would be the best place for WN to start TATL ops.
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SXDFC
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:52 am

As much as I'd love to see WN expand onto another A/C type, its most defiantly NOT in the foreseeable future..

There are plenty of destinations out and around North and South America that could be reached by a 737. Our CEO has said multiple times that the 737 is the main focus for WN for both domestic and international ops. One thing people seem to forget is that International is still in its infant stages with WN, and one thing that WN should be focusing on is getting the name known throughout the Caribbean. Airlines such as WS have been flying internationally for many years and is why they're now looking at a different equipment type to go elsewhere.

IMHO if there is ever going to be a fully TATL capable 737, WN will have a large hand in creating it.. However this is something that might be seen after the MAX proves itself.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:35 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 25):
The very real and viable markets outside the Lower 48 that WN could open tomorrow, if they had enough planes, Altea fully implemented and ETOPS is pretty impressive. Probably could double their destinations.

96 new destinations?

Aside: The May shareholder's meeting talked about 50 new destination cities, not markets. This isn't city pairs. And to be fair, they didn't say all international. 'Company officials have said they can readily identify 50 new cities that the carrier could reach. With North America largely saturated, the bulk of those destinations are international.'

How many cities in the Western Hemisphere do DL, AA or UA serve with aircraft having a minimum of 143 seats? How many of those cities by DL/AA/UA each also meet WN's typical frequency criteria where they want at least 5x weekly and three departures a day?

Sure, a Max 8 has the range for FLL/HOU/BWI/MDW/LAX/PHX - Barranquilla (and I just use BAQ as an example). Neither UA nor AA flies there today, and they have very well-developed Lat Am networks out of IAH and MIA. Southwest isn't going to have 3 daily flights from BAQ.

I'm very skeptical of fifty new Southwest cities within five years. 'Could reach' isn't 'confidently commercially viable'. Ninety-six? I would love to see your list and the PDEWs from prospective WN gateways. (Do the work and sell it to WN!)
 
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seabosdca
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 45):
'Could reach' isn't 'confidently commercially viable'.

  

Central America, the Caribbean, and Hawaii are only good for a few years of growth, IMO. If WN wants to continue growing in the long term it will need to think about how to go overseas. That won't be immediate, but it's when widebodies might prove necessary. As I wrote above it would be a seismic transition, but may be essential to continued growth.
 
FSXJunkie
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:49 pm

My feeling is if WN were to go for multiple types, they'd have to be related

It'll depend on how close the 737 replacement (797-Y1) is to the 787, IF both aircraft are very close in terms of parts commonality then WN would pick up 787's, after their first batch of 797's. Even then the first WN 787 would likely be second hand.
 
planemaker
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:54 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 46):
are only good for a few years of growth

What is a "few years"?

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 46):
If WN wants to continue growing in the long term it will need to think about how to go overseas.

Perhaps in 15 years they will take a look at it. It is a lot easier to continue expanding and competing in N. and S. America than to try to break into a market where they have no presence and no experience.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
KarlB737
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RE: WN Can It Keep To Single Type Aircraft

Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:30 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):
WN's entire business model is currently centered around having one type.

Throughout the total history of Southwest Airlines they have avoided a second type like a plague. Every member of A-Net knows this. They cited increased cost of training and other attached costs of a different type. I believe they will continue to avoid the temptation as they always have and yes again cite increased costs for not doing it. I think they would rather fly a 737 with as many stops as necessary for the out of range routes to continue avoiding another fleet type.

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