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DeltaXNA
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How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:53 am

Are flights profitable? Full loads?
 
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gdg9
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:17 pm

I'm told the DFW-HKG segment goes with no freight due to range restrictions based on winds and also a lack of diversion points. Not sure I get that but am told it deals with PRC restrictions, crew timeouts etc. Perhaps others can explain.
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atcsundevil
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:40 pm

It's highly unlikely that we'd have access to any data regarding profitability -- that's just not something that airlines generally divulge. Load factors are or will be released, but as always, load factors are never indicative of profitability. If they truly are restricted on cargo, then obviously that would hurt profitability quite a bit. Generally speaking, it can take as long as two years for a route to begin turning a profit, and given that these flights are based on ultra long haul economics (which are exceedingly difficult to turn a profit anyway), I would be surprised if the flights are consistently profitable already. Of course I have no data to support that claim...it's simply an opinionated guess.

If the flights hang around for the long-term, then it is clear that the flight is deemed in the best interest of AA. That doesn't necessarily mean it is or is not making money, but if they provide a benefit to the network even if generating losses, they may still be kept. I'm not so sure about the PVG flight in the long-term, but my guess is that the HKG flight will be successful.
 
Longhornmaniac
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:40 pm

Anecdotally, I've heard from from many EXP AAgents that there are a LOT of paid J/F travelers on HKG. On a flight I was inquiring about, there were also 45 EXPs waiting for eVIPs from Coach to Business, so the route seems to be attracting a lot of high-value customers, which one could fairly easily extrapolate to success. That said, it's such a long route, there's not much margin for error.

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mhkansan
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:59 pm

This is purely anecdotal, but the flight consistently seems to be more full on the HKG-DFW segment then the flight to China. Also, I'm pretty sure they take cargo. I flew the inaugural flight to HKG and they were certainly unloading some.
 
eastern023
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:18 pm

I was on AA HKG-DFW two weeks ago. Definitely big pallets of cargo was being loaded on the belly of the 777W (no telling on the weight of course). Pax load was also full, I was 15th on the stand by list. No upgrade for me... so I settle for Y - MCE front against the bulkhead, not bad.

[Edited 2014-09-25 09:19:27]

[Edited 2014-09-25 09:19:44]
AA will Rise Again!
 
eastern023
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:21 pm

Would we ever see AA to SIN or SYD?
AA will Rise Again!
 
toxtethogrady
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:40 pm

I'm guessing AA is pleased enough with the loads to propose DFW-PEK next summer.
 
sccutler
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:49 pm

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 6):
Would we ever see AA to ... SYD?

We already do. It's called "QF8."
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
jetblue1965
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting sccutler (Reply 8):
Quoting eastern023 (Reply 6):
Would we ever see AA to ... SYD?

We already do. It's called "QF8."

That's very marginal to call it "AA". There's no 1-2-1 all-aisle access J on the A380, nowhere to use eVIP certs, and no free MCE. All the JV/JBA/ATI are only neutral to the airline, not the customer.
 
MKIAZ
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:23 pm

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 6):
I was on AA HKG-DFW two weeks ago. Definitely big pallets of cargo was being loaded on the belly of the 777W (no telling on the weight of course).

Eastbound is generally not as much of a problem due to the winds - luckily that is the direction most cargo goes as well.

If the flight is losing money after a few years this might be a perfect candidate for the 789.
 
Flighty
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:27 pm

The freight restriction would be primarily on the Dallas-Asia westerly direction. The less important direction.

Without knowing the data, let me make a qualitative case against the flights. The flights are very expensive to operate, with long mileage, new 77Ws, heavy AA crews. The market between DFW and Asia is a question mark for me. I think it is taking general AA hub feed, some of it cheap (think 5c RASM) over a length of haul that is longer, while actually delivering less value, than others like Seattle, beacause it takes longer. If these Dallas to Asia flights break even I would be utterly amazed and fully retract. Will we see D. Parker or S. Kirby say "the Asia flights break even," that would be legally material and in my opinion we won't hear it, because it's not the case.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:33 pm

It's a heck of a lot cheaper to fly LGA-DFW-HKG than it is to fly JFK-HKG on partner CX.

Random look 9/29 returning the following friday

LGA via DFW 889
JFK nonstop 1172


As discussed in a previous thread with another random snapshot on the same route with similar results, flying east coast-DFW-Asia is a lot more flying than flying nonstop east coast-Asia.

That means A*A is getting a lot less $$ for a lot more flight time. That says a lot.


Then again, PVG was just announced...so A*A is full steam ahead with an Asian gateway at DFW. But I believe it is because they have few other options. There only other option is to build a crowded LAX into a large Asian gateway. That may yield even worse results for them.
 
jfk777
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:23 pm

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 3):
Anecdotally, I've heard from from many EXP AAgents that there are a LOT of paid J/F travelers on HKG. On a flight I was inquiring about, there were also 45 EXPs waiting for eVIPs from Coach to Business, so the route seems to be attracting a lot of high-value customers, which one could fairly easily extrapolate to success. That said, it's such a long route, there's not much margin for error.

Looking at what AA charges to Hong Kong in J class, about 4K against Cathay's 7K they should be able to fill it.
 
jayunited
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:50 am

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 3):
Anecdotally, I've heard from from many EXP AAgents that there are a LOT of paid J/F travelers on HKG. On a flight I was inquiring about, there were also 45 EXPs waiting for eVIPs from Coach to Business, so the route seems to be attracting a lot of high-value customers, which one could fairly easily extrapolate to success. That said, it's such a long route, there's not much margin for error.

I'm not particularly surprised that AA is selling out business class and that there are so many people on the upgrade list with the flight time coming in at almost 17 hours not many people want to spend that kind of time stuck in a coach seat.

But like you stated just because business is full does not equal success especially when you get into the ultra long haul segment controlling fuel cost is key. Someone else posted that AA is charging almost 3K less for business class than CX would charge for a connection. Now I'm not sure if AA is still doing introductory fares to attract more business but it does raise a few questions are the low ticket prices the reason for the high load factors? And secondly is AA's actually covering the cost to operate the flight when their prices are so low when compared to CX? I think it is still far to early to answer any of these question because I truly believe that this flight is an investment and it will take years before we know how DFW-HKG is performing because if the 773er is to much aircraft (and it might be especially in coach) then AA can switch the flight to their soon to be delivered 789's and see if the smaller aircraft will make a difference. So I agree with you and other who have stated that it is far to early to determine whether or not HKG, or PVG will be successful from DFW due to the fact that with the delivery of the 787's AA will have quite a few options at their disposal before they decided to cancel the flight altogether. The 787 program couldn't have come a better time especially for AA as they are building DFW into their Asian gateway if the 777 don't pan out maybe the 787's will.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:16 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Looking at what AA charges to Hong Kong in J class, about 4K against Cathay's 7K they should be able to fill it.
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 12):
Random look 9/29 returning the following friday

LGA via DFW 889
JFK nonstop 1172

If AA is filling cabins, not everyone is paying 4k. In fact, most aren't. The first ones to buy are paying 4k and it goes on up from there. The truth of the matter is:

Quoting jayunited (Reply 14):
I truly believe that this flight is an investment and it will take years before we know how DFW-HKG is performing because if the 773er is to much aircraft (and it might be especially in coach) then AA can switch the flight to their soon to be delivered 789's and see if the smaller aircraft will make a difference.

        
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Flighty
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:33 am

It will all go 787 as soon as possible.
 
PVG
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:49 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):
If AA is filling cabins, not everyone is paying 4k. In fact, most aren't. The first ones to buy are paying 4k and it goes on up from there. The truth of the matter is:

The $4K fare is restricted in that you can only make one change and it costs $500 US for the change. No other changes allowed. The non-restircted J class fare is closer to what CX is charging.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:49 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 16):
It will all go 787 as soon as possible.

I agree with PVG and PEK. That makes the most sense.

The jury is still out on DFW-HKG. Its going to take a while longer to see if its better on a 77W or 789.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
PVG
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:52 am

I took the HKG/DFW flight over the summer. I was very impressed with the new AA. The best experience on a US carrier that I've had in a long time. Still a little below CX standards, but for almost half the price, it was worth the "sacrifice"!
 
point2point
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:10 am

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 2):
Generally speaking, it can take as long as two years for a route to begin turning a profit,

or not........

 
 
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malaysia
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:16 am

Quoting PVG (Reply 19):
I took the HKG/DFW flight over the summer. I was very impressed with the new AA. The best experience on a US carrier that I've had in a long time. Still a little below CX standards, but for almost half the price, it was worth the "sacrifice"!

I still find DL much better than AA when it comes to the Y product on trans-pacific even in a 763 in economy comfort
There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
 
jetblue1965
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:09 pm

Quoting malaysia (Reply 21):
I still find DL much better than AA when it comes to the Y product on trans-pacific even in a 763 in economy comfort

And once they migrate to fully 3-4-3 on their 77E fleet, the gap will be even more apparent.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 24):
And once they migrate to fully 3-4-3 on their 77E fleet, the gap will be even more apparent.

Its only a matter of time before UA and DL get there...
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
MAH4546
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:46 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 25):
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 24):
And once they migrate to fully 3-4-3 on their 77E fleet, the gap will be even more apparent.

Its only a matter of time before UA and DL get there...

UA is already there by deciding to go 3-3-3 on the 787s.
a.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:49 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
UA is already there by deciding to go 3-3-3 on the 787s.

I flew on AI's 787 a couple of weeks ago from ATQ-DEL. It was a little tight, but it wasnt terrible. AI has many other problems to worry about...
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
jetblue1965
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 25):
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 24):
And once they migrate to fully 3-4-3 on their 77E fleet, the gap will be even more apparent.

Its only a matter of time before UA and DL get there...

UA is already there by deciding to go 3-3-3 on the 787s.

Again I'm only comparing DL 777 to AA 777 here, and have no idea why UA 787 is relevant. DL will still have a large fleet of 330s and 767s plowing the Pacific that won't be moving to narrower seats - ever.

And so far, neither DL nor UA has any announcement (or even reliable rumor) that they will be retrofitting their 772 fleets, so the speculation that they will follow suit is just that - speculation.
 
MAH4546
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:01 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 28):
Again I'm only comparing DL 777 to AA 777 here, and have no idea why UA 787 is relevant.

It's relevant because it demonstrates how United has already opted to go with narrower, denser cabins, and is very indicative of it's future direction in plane interior retrofits.

3-4-3 is the future.

What's your excuse going to be when DL and UA go to 3-4-3 on the 777s?
a.
 
Flighty
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:16 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 29):

3-4-3 is the future.

Agreed, but certain implementations cross the red line. It has to be done carefully.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:23 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 29):

What's your excuse going to be when DL and UA go to 3-4-3 on the 777s?

it's no excuse for any full service airline to go 3-4-3. i avoid EK 77W for good reason. but then again, neither is even rumored to migrate.
 
HKG212
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Sat Sep 27, 2014 2:16 am

Just checked Expert Flyer for availability on DFW-HKG on October 14, +/- 3 days. Almost 0 availability upfront, including F seats on most days. In total, there are only 3 F seats and 11 J seats available during those 7 days (only full J, none on lower booking codes!), which means nearly 100% revenue load factor upfront (they do not clear EVIP's until the last minute, from experience).

So, they must be doing very, very well, which echoes what the HKG station manager told me already in June.
 
N503JB
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:53 am

westbound with average 13tons cargo on each flight, and First and business with full of booked revenue customer all times.

Regards
N503JB

[Edited 2014-09-26 23:09:03]
HKIA Ramp Spotters
 
Max Q
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RE: How Is DFW-HKG/PVG Doing?

Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:34 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 24):
UA is already there by deciding to go 3-3-3 on the 787s.

Just me perhaps but that doesn't look as bad as 3-4-3 on a B777.

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 30):
Just checked Expert Flyer for availability on DFW-HKG on October 14, +/- 3 days. Almost 0 availability upfront, including F seats on most days. In total, there are only 3 F seats and 11 J seats available during those 7 days (only full J, none on lower booking codes!), which means nearly 100% revenue load factor upfront (they do not clear EVIP's until the last minute, from experience).

So, they must be doing very, very well, which echoes what the HKG station manager told me already in June.
Quoting N503JB (Reply 31):
westbound with average 13tons cargo on each flight, and First and business with full of booked revenue customer all times.

Good for AA , it's great to see them coming back.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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