Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
csavel
Topic Author
Posts: 1405
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 9:38 pm

Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Sun Oct 05, 2014 5:42 pm

OK so in this disucssion you hear a lot about how airline y should start flying to city x because there are a lot of y-ians there. You know Air Ruritania should start flying to NY because of the huge Ruritanian diaspora.

I've always been skeptical about that especially if the home country is far away because not everyone can just pick up and travel back home when it suits them. THere might be kids in school, job commitments, money,etc. so the potential market has to be HUGE to really fill up seats.

I am trying to figure out if that can be measured. I have an idea below.

*Note I am neither a business man,involved in the aviation biz, an economist or really anything but an armchair a.netter so flame away, but flame with a smile!"

1gen = number if adult immigrants
2gen = number of adult children of immigrants
1gen$ = average income of adult immigrants
2gen$ - average income of adult children of immigrants
1gkid = the number of UNDER 21 offspring of 1gen
2gkid = the number of UNDER 21 offspring of 2gen
THome = hours to fly from city in diaspora country to city in home country

so we have ( (( 1gen + (1gkid/2)) * 1gen$) +( ( (2gen + ( 2gkid/4)) * 2gen$) / 2) ) / Thome

basically you add immigrans + 1/2 their kids and multiply by immigrant income . Then you do same for adult children of immigrans but divide that # by 2. Add that number. THen divide that number by the distance home. The higher the number, the bigger the ethnic market will work.

Summing the aggregate of potential ethnic travelers and the avg income and THEN dividing by distance is important. If you are Haitian and your favorite aunt breaks her leg you might take a long week-end to go visit her. even if you have spouse and kids spouse might be able to take care of kids for week end. If your are Indian and your favorite aunt breaks her leg in Bangalore, you aren't going anywhere for the week end.

I also think ties tend to get looser after first sencond and third which is why adult children of immigrants coulnt for 1/2 and children of immigrants count for 1/2 and children of adult children count for 1/4.

tried it with an educated guess of Haitian diaspora and Indian diaspora in NYC and the Haiti number was slightly higher which in a sense makes sense. Haven't been able to come up with more accuratae figures of immigrants vs. immigrant children and also income, but well.

How stupid is this? How do airlines go about factoring in potential of the ethnic market?
I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8250
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:40 pm

You may get a lot of comments on this but I'll start by offering that air travel demand isn't a linear function of income (especially for long-haul travel).
 
Capt.Fantastic
Posts: 862
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 1999 4:01 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:51 am

You defined variables influencing travel from A to B...
You should account for variables influencing travel from B to A.
IMHO, flight hours is not an accurate way to measure distance. Actually, I don't believe distance is much of a determining factor, e.g. there are ~5 daily flights between NYC and Hong Kong.
 
S75752
Posts: 1470
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 1:02 am

I view Ethnic travel as just another subset of Leisure travel, with the same quirks to that.
Some who have more money on hand may go for a nonstop, others will just go with whichever's cheapest which, for some reason relating to airline pricing logic, is probably not a nonstop.

So the potential is there... If you can have the lowest fare.

[Edited 2014-10-05 18:03:11]
 
windowflyer
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 1:18 am

Interesting...

I have no idea how airlines go about factoring in the potential of the ethnic market, but it certainly is worth factoring if I am at all a typical representation of this group.

I am a 1gen, moved to NY from Trinidad when I was 13. I don't vacation in Trinidad but have visited at least once a year for the past 10 years. Weekends mostly. For everything from funerals to weddings to birthday parties. There was even one restaurant opening.

Immigrants have ties to their homeland, family obligations etc. and usually have to return from time to time.
Lucky for me, NYC-POS is only a 5hr flight and well served by 3 airlines. (B6 doesn't count... No big seats up front)
A-300,319,320,321,330,340,380. B-727,737,747,757,767,777,787. L-1011,DC8,DC9,MD80,CRJ,Dash-8,YS-11,HS-748,Concorde
 
tmoney
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:05 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:20 am

A sensitive point you brought up there, especially when you're talking about ethnicity and "immigrants" it's really hard to not cross that thin line of discrimination.

Who are you to term who and what an "immigrant" is and how are you going to go about categorizing people? By their passports? People come to the US for different reasons (business, visit, education, work) And not everyone intend to stay here permanently. And are you going to ask which generation "immigrant" the person is to everyone at the boarding gate?

Imagine how you'd feel if the gate agent asks you that as you board. "Sir, are you immigrating to the US? Oh you're already an American? Which generation American are you?! Oh, btw your seat is 32E."

It's ridiculous!!

Also to note, ethnicity does not correspond to nationality. A country can have many ethnic groups. And ethnic groups exist across country-lines too.

SQ flies to IAH. Take a guess what % of Singaporeans live in Houston? They fill up the rear with mostly Vietnamese traffic taking connection towards Vietnam. Considering Houston has the 2nd largest Viet population in the US (Google it) and VN also have 77Ws, but you don't see them starting service to IAH, do you?
Most Dutch-Americans live in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Pella, Iowa. And having lived in Iowa I know how many of them go to the Netherlands every year. So according to your logic should KL start services to GRR and DSM from AMS?!

Airlines fly to destinations where they see supply and demand, and have the capacity to do so. Sometimes it correlates to demographics. Most of the times, it doesn't. It's pretty ignorant to assume that an airline from a country would do service to a city just because most of its diaspora lives there. Airlines start service to a specific region it thinks it makes the economic sense in connecting the two places.
Someone pointed out that RJ flies to DTW because of sizable Middle Eastern population in Detroit area. Maybe all of it are Jordanians shuttling back and forth. Maybe not. ET and QR flies to IAH but not EY. That doesn't mean there's only Emiratis and Qatarist living in Houston and not people from Abu Dhabi. Most of that traffic is South Asia bound anyways. But do you see AI and PK starting service?

I don't mean to shoot you down, bud. But maybe give it a few thoughts and don't jump the gun on the forum next time? Thanks!!  
Yokes > Side-sticks
Mingarladon heros. RGN.
 
lutfi
Posts: 888
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2000 6:33 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:56 am

Airlines call it "VFR" traffic (visting friends & relations) as opposed to business or leisure. And it is also driven by internal migration (most cultures have a holiday when you "have" to go home, Thanksgiving, Lunar New Year, Ed ul Fitri, Christmas etc.)

The difference to non-VFR leisure is that you don't have to advertise the destination to the market.
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 801
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:46 am

Quoting tmoney (Reply 5):
A sensitive point you brought up there, especially when you're talking about ethnicity and "immigrants" it's really hard to not cross that thin line of discrimination.

I think you are a little to sensitive, I think the basic question the op was asking is eg: I am Australian but if i was living in Los Angeles and I was going home say for Christmas would I fly the national airline of my country or would I fly Delta or United back home. We have the 2nd largest Greek population outside of Greece living in Melbourne, when OA used to fly to MEL in the 80s most Greek people would fly the national carrier of their home country even thow they lived in Australia and QF is our national airline, it was the same with JAT and AZ when they use to serve Australia. So I dont think he is asking a sensitive question at all, its basicly if there is a large dispioria of people living in another county does that airline fly to their adopted county they live in?

So with all due respect to you I realy do not seem a problem with this question.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5785
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:27 am

Some of those destinations might have as well business and holiday traffic.

Think of London - Caribbean. They do not serve only VFR traffic to the UK but those are popular holiday destinations for British, and in some cases there is additional business traffic (Cayman, Bermuda). Another clear case is France - DOMs (Reunion, Martinique, Guadalupe). Or even US - Puerto Rico.
 
rsrik
Posts: 141
Joined: Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:22 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:01 pm

Hi
A few of my thoughts
1. I doubt whether such a linear equation exists. If airlines need to predict trends, I'd imagine they would simply look at passenger loads and data over a period of time, and make conclusions.
2. In general it makes sense for an airline from Country Y to start services because - for the immigrants belonging to Y, when they step into the airline of their nation, they start to feel the flavor of their homeland already - staff from their own country, who speak their language, food that is more authentic and encapsulates a taste of home, better movies/entertainment choices from Y, etc. Hell, I'd never fly Air India   but, I know, when I step into one of their planes, the flavor of India will kick in. And, that's a very warm and endearing feeling for any immigrant bound for home.
So, as an airline belonging to Y, If it is reliable, has a decent brand/product/safety record, and if there is a healthy load of passengers traveling back and forth, I'd expect the airline to launch services, regardless of any formula. I am happy to be corrected, if I am missing something...!

Quoting tmoney (Reply 5):
Imagine how you'd feel if the gate agent asks you that as you board. "Sir, are you immigrating to the US? Oh you're already an American? Which generation American are you?! Oh, btw your seat is 32E."

It's ridiculous!!


What ????
There is absolutely nothing offensive in this post, in my opinion. It is quite thought provoking, in fact.
 
csavel
Topic Author
Posts: 1405
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 9:38 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:54 pm

Quoting tmoney (Reply 5):
A sensitive point you brought up there, especially when you're talking about ethnicity and "immigrants" it's really hard to not cross that thin line of discrimination.

Who are you to term who and what an "immigrant" is and how are you going to go about categorizing people? By their passports? People come to the US for different reasons (business, visit, education, work) And not everyone intend to stay here permanently. And are you going to ask which generation "immigrant" the person is to everyone at the boarding gate?

I don't think you are getting the point of my post. A lot of people who suggest routes for carriers especially routes to the US often say how there is a huge community of country X such that it would justify a route. My contention was that the community has to be *very large* to justify non-stop flights, epecially intercontinental and that isn't solely a justification. This doesn't mean, of course that there aren't leisure or business ties that would justify the route, this post was only to ask how to figure out how much a first or second generation diaspora market can influence route profitability.

Frankly, I don't get your criticism of my question when you ask 'who am I to term what is and what isn't immigrant.' The field of demography is sort of clear (as I thought I was) on what a first generation/second generation immigrant is. There is no value judgement in that. This is the demographic info that ALL companies use for business (Gonna import some Greek food, probably first concentrate on Greek immigrant communities.) The leap from there to gate agents quizzing people about immigration status, - um, well let's say I'm puzzled.

Quoting tmoney (Reply 5):
It's pretty ignorant to assume that an airline from a country would do service to a city just because most of its diaspora lives there

Well that was exactly my point in writing my post, so my question is basically. OK Let's see how much the diaspora market does or doesn't contribute to a route. I believe it contributes less that what a lot of people on these boards say. Perhaps we can quantify it? Perhaps because I work for demographers I find this subject interesting, how migration patterns will create new business and transportation times.

I thought I was going to get flamed for my obvious lack of knowledge about how the airline biz works, not for somehow touching a political nerve on immigration!

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 7):
I think you are a little to sensitive, I think the basic question the op was asking is eg: I am Australian but if i was living in Los Angeles and I was going home say for Christmas would I fly the national airline of my country or would I fly Delta or United back home.

Thanks, I was really trying to answer the question of how much an immigrant diaspora community helps drive traffic. I've got some good answers, let's keep the conversation going. I would love to hear from actual airline industry analysts.
I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
 
JAGflyer
Posts: 3577
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:31 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:07 pm

Depending on the ethnicity, the issue of price consciousness plays heavily on the success of a route. Certain ethnicities are "cheap" (plain and simple) and they put price above convenience (non-stop/1-stop), comfort (31" vs 34" pitch in Y), and FF miles/dining/etc. As the prices go lower, the yield decreases. Look at the India market out of YYZ or YVR (the two largest Indian diasporas in Canada). People want cheap, discounted fares which makes non-stop service on such a long route next to impossible. This is a VFR route with no/little connection traffic beyond the country. Families also usually tend to travel together meaning the difference between a $1300 ticket (ie. YYZ-LHR-DEL) and a $1600 ticket (YYZ-DEL) is huge. Less price conscious ethnicities (I won't single them out) receive and support non-stop VFR flights as they more easily fill both the front and back cabins.
If you flew today, thank a Flight Dispatcher!
 
bjorn14
Posts: 3595
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 2:11 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:56 pm

Anectdotely we know that most Indians avoid Air India like the plague even if they are a $1K cheaper on a non-stop vs. a connection but AI maybe an isolated case. I tend to think that the 'VFR' factor gets over hyped on A.net. Most US airlines are more concerned with the O&D and cx pax from their home hubs than vice versa. The pax they get on the other end is gravy.

Interesting topic though.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:43 pm

Quoting JAGflyer (Reply 11):
Depending on the ethnicity, the issue of price consciousness plays heavily on the success of a route. Certain ethnicities are "cheap" (plain and simple) and they put price above convenience (non-stop/1-stop), comfort (31" vs 34" pitch in Y), and FF miles/dining/etc. As the prices go lower, the yield decreases. Look at the India market out of YYZ or YVR (the two largest Indian diasporas in Canada). People want cheap, discounted fares which makes non-stop service on such a long route next to impossible. This is a VFR route with no/little connection traffic beyond the country. Families also usually tend to travel together meaning the difference between a $1300 ticket (ie. YYZ-LHR-DEL) and a $1600 ticket (YYZ-DEL) is huge. Less price conscious ethnicities (I won't single them out) receive and support non-stop VFR flights as they more easily fill both the front and back cabins.

This viewpoint does not take into account the length of the trip. And that's what drives cost considerations. Say somebody is of European descent, living in the USA. They can afford to be less price conscious. If their ticket were to increase 50% from $1000 to $1500, it's not altogether a deal-breaker. A $1600 YYZ-DEL fare that increases by 50% is a much bigger hit.

I also wonder if there are differences in how families travel. Whenever I hear relatives discussing a trip to India, they talk about the cost of a family flying. 4 tickets at $1600 is no small sum. 4 premium economy tickets for a family of four, would be a year of college tuition in Canada. Does every ethnicity tend to travel with their families? Or are some more likely to be 1-2 family members traveling together? Fewer members traveling means less sensitivity to prices.

Lastly, there's preference. My father had to travel YYZ-BOM a few back for his brother's funeral. Cheapest fare was YYZ-EWR-BOM on UA. YYZ-LHR-BOM and BOM-ZRH-YYZ return on AC/AI and LX/AC was 15% more expensive. He chose the latter fare because he didn't like the idea of a 15 hr long flight. Yet, I would have picked that to get there faster (given the circumstance), with minimum jetlag (due to timing, you can arrive and hit the sack, instead of arriving early morning). He paid more to travel longer, because he perceived the longer flight as more comfortable.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:50 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 12):
Anectdotely we know that most Indians avoid Air India like the plague even if they are a $1K cheaper on a non-stop vs. a connection but AI maybe an isolated case.

Who knows if that will change. See post above. My dad had to travel a few weeks back for his brother's funeral. His one request was, "No Air India".

I presented him the various fare and routing options. Because of the combination he picked, he had one leg (LHR-BOM) on AI. Talked to him on arrival. And he said, he actually really liked that Air India flight. Being on a 787 might have helped. 33" pitch on AI is also quite generous compared to carriers across the Atlantic. And of course, Indians love food on Air India.

Will be interesting to see the comparison to Air Canada on the return trip. From ZRH to YYZ on a 787. But less seat pitch this time.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:57 pm

Such a model would be too complex. Sure, it is tempting to do this. But the "seasoning" of immigrant groups are not the same. People travel differently depending on their age, marital status, and how many years their unique culture has been in teh US/Canada/Europe/Australia. And as YTZ said, include a distance function, aka a "gravity model."

Plus, different nationalities have differing desires to return home. People from Swizerland might enjoy a return home. People from Somalia or Laos may not, because they have wartime enemies at home.

You "could" do interesting studies of VFR but you would not base an aviation venture on something that only explains 5-10% of a phenomenon. You need to leverage real data through IATA instead.

[Edited 2014-10-07 07:58:34]

[Edited 2014-10-07 08:00:17]
 
ContnlEliteCMH
Posts: 1385
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 8:19 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:08 pm

Quoting csavel (Reply 10):
I thought I was going to get flamed for my obvious lack of knowledge about how the airline biz works, not for somehow touching a political nerve on immigration!

There is no evidence that tmoney has any more knowledge of the airline industry than you do. Furthermore, he conflates a legitimate modeling question with a perceived immorality as he defines it: attempting to understand behavior of people by some grouping. It seems that in the past few years, the notions of race and/or ethnicity have become a third rail of political thought. Touch it, and you're immediately zapped. I have developed the opinion that the accusation of "racism" (or it's more innocuous bedfellow "discrimination") is usually an indicator that the accuser has forfeited detailed thought on a detailed topic, reverting instead to the generalizations and broad notions of (im)morality. I submit the only people who think you've crossed a line are those who draw their own on farcical criteria. You've cast no aspersions upon any individual's character; you've not defamed anyone; and you've not drawn comparisons between any one group vs. another. In short, your conduct has done nothing to merit any judgement that you've "crossed a line" unless you just make up your own lines or you lack the rational thought to know where the line actually is. It's easy to understand how this happens. Discrimination (the ability to discern one notion from another) is the basis of rational thought. If you believe that certain kinds of discrimination (like comparisons based on race, ethnicity, language, etc.) are taboo, then you probably have no rational thought on the matter except to accuse somebody else of immorality. My observation is that the substitution of accusation for rational thought has become more prevalent recently (illustrated in this very thread).

The truth is that differences in human conduct are observable, and part of those observations include correlating factors, real or perceived. Race, ethnicity, language, culture, etc. are part of those correlating factors and their use in forming a framework to better understand conduct is useful and most certainly not immoral. These are called "demographics" and good businesses try to understand them to improve their service offerings.

Regarding this thread's issue, I don't know if immediate proximity to a particular airport would be a reason to offer service since connecting flights can supply a lot of traffic. (Example: there is a considerable Somali population in Columbus. There are no flights from any airport in Ohio to Somalia, so if they wish to visit the homeland, they have to transfer.) However, proximity might be a reason to command pricing premiums, something in which airlines are always keenly interested.
Christianity. Islam. Hinduism. Anthropogenic Global Warming. All are matters of faith!
 
User avatar
boeingrulz
Posts: 521
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 1999 2:55 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:29 pm

I wonder if it would be possible to refine the prediction using data from google searches. Big Data analytics seems to be helping companies make business decisions. Since I am not a mathematician, I don't know how to add this to the model.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:15 pm

From a purely analtical sense, I don't know if anything scales linearly here.

Demand from successive generations doesn't just drop in half. I would think it to be exponential.

Ditto for distance. You'd get step changes in demand. 1-2 hr flights are really drivable distances. Hard to say that if that means more travel or less. 4-8 hrs could be a distance where one could be home for major events in the year. This could be someone going from New York to California. Or someone from Boston to London, UK. 10+ hrs, it's quite likely it'll be once every few years.

Distance results in step changes, not just because of cost, but also because of travel time and recovery time. And because of those issues people will tend to treat longer trips as far less discretionary and much more planned. Anybody going to India from North America is likely to go for 2-3 weeks. Anybody going to the UK or France from North America would would be happy with a week. Anybody going to the Carribean to visit family might find it acceptable to do so for an extended weekend.
 
csavel
Topic Author
Posts: 1405
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 9:38 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:04 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 18):
Distance results in step changes, not just because of cost, but also because of travel time and recovery time. And because of those issues people will tend to treat longer trips as far less discretionary and much more planned. Anybody going to India from North America is likely to go for 2-3 weeks. Anybody going to the UK or France from North America would would be happy with a week. Anybody going to the Carribean to visit family might find it acceptable to do so for an extended weekend.

Yes!!! Thanks you have articulated this well.

Thanks all for the replies, this is been a very good discussion. In general how airlines gauge potential demand is interesting.
I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:17 am

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 1):

And low income doesn't necessarily mean they won't travel. People will give up other things in order to have their once-a-year trip. I've seen people center their lives around their trip back home to the Philippines....not going out on weekends, and trying to pick up extra hours at work, etc.....
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:29 am

Quoting csavel (Reply 10):
Well that was exactly my point in writing my post, so my question is basically. OK Let's see how much the diaspora market does or doesn't contribute to a route. I believe it contributes less that what a lot of people on these boards say. Perhaps we can quantify it? Perhaps because I work for demographers I find this subject interesting, how migration patterns will create new business and transportation times.

There is also a peripheral effect on other routes, if you provide the route that a certain ethnic group needs. TWA is the first airline that comes to mind. They were able to get people on their other routes, on the proverbial "coat-tails" of a particular flight.

In San Francisco, for example, in the late 1980s/early 1990s, TWA had a relatively small operation, whereas it was a major hub for United. It was much harder for those to fly 50-100,000 miles in a year on TW out of SFO....but the Portuguese regulars did it, despite it was not as convenient.

When TW stopped flying to Lisbon, many of the most loyal people said "goodbye" and went to another airline.....and took their family, friends and business colleagues along with them.

This was not the whole cause of the demise of TWA, but the mass exodus of its most loyal ethnic clientele, was certainly a major contributing factor.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:40 am

Quoting rsrik (Reply 9):

What ????
There is absolutely nothing offensive in this post, in my opinion. It is quite thought provoking, in fact.


Yes, it's good to get people thinking.....especially since many of the planners in the airlines are totally clueless of the potential in catering to ethnic markets.





Quoting ytz (Reply 14):
Who knows if that will change. See post above. My dad had to travel a few weeks back for his brother's funeral. His one request was, "No Air India".

Some of my Ukrainian friends will prefer to go Lufthansa, above all others.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24705
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:47 am

Whats the point of dreaming up some random formula?

Simply work of existing MIDT O&D statistics.
There is plenty of history to gauge demand for virtually any city pair in the world. Then add a stimulation factor allowance for a direct link and voila.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Tdan
Posts: 526
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:36 pm

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:00 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 24):
Whats the point of dreaming up some random formula?

Simply work of existing MIDT O&D statistics.
There is plenty of history to gauge demand for virtually any city pair in the world. Then add a stimulation factor allowance for a direct link and voila.

   I don't understand the rationale behind this entire conversation that has transpired in this thread.

OP - there is data out there that gives you a very good idea how many passengers travel between any O&D for a given month/year broken down by direction, carrier, COS, etc. No need for inventing equations to map immigrant air travel behavior. If you want to create an equation, use the MIDT data and reverse engineer one, though I doubt this would be too fruitful as each market is different.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Theoretical Model For Gauging Ethnic Pax Potentia

Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:18 am

You also have "regional" considerations, as well. Particularly for the UK and Russia.

Seems like a higher percentage of UK expatriates in Seattle are from the North part of England, and Scotland, compared to London-centered Los Angeles.

Likewise, SEA has many people from the Far East parts of Russia(KHV, VVO, Sakhalin, etc.) than most parts of the USA
(along with some Moscow---but very little else).....L.A. is mostly Moscow......and SFO has a diverse mix of Russians.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos