Asian Airline Expansion In The USA

TWA772LR · Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:55 am

OK, we have CX about to start BOS, Hainan already(?) Flying BOS, and JL flying BOS.

We also see NH flying to SJC and about to start PDX.

What does the future hold for East Asian airlines in the USA? Some I see are NH HND-IAH, NRY-AUS; JL HND-DFW and NRT-PHX. CA PEK-ORD, maybe even PEK-YVR-South America. And one I think should happen, even though not in the US, is NH on NRT-PTY.

Obviously with TPAC being UAs bread and butter, AA expanding like wild fire, and DL holding their own, those are definitely factors to consider for Asian airline expansion.

Let's keep this to Far East Asia, Central Asia, and Indian airlines, not the Middle East. Russian Far East is also included

29erUSA187 · Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:09 am

I could see HU at SAN to PEK or OZ to ICN. Hopefully!

VCEflyboy · Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:14 am

PEK-YVR-South America is a no no unless there's a major polar shift that moves YVR to MAD.

modesto2 · Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:54 pm

CZ also recently announced SFOWUH service starting this December.

flyingdoc787 · Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:01 pm

Philippine Airlines has announced MNL-JFK from March 2015 via YVR

lhcvg · Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:20 pm

Any chance of OZ To IAD? Or does KE have that on lockdown?

zeke · Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:26 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
What does the future hold for East Asian airlines in the USA?

CX has been asking for years to fly say LAX/SFO to the west coast or even points between.

Denied. Competition not welcome.

Why would you book domestically with a carrier that charges for everything, when others actually have a real hard and soft product that people will happily pay for.

Carpethead · Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:24 pm

Anything from HND will require negotiations.
How about JL doing NRT-PHL and/or CLT. 787 is the right kind of plane.

flyinghippo · Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:29 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 7):
How about JL doing NRT-PHL and/or CLT. 787 is the right kind of plane.

Is there a large Japanese population in PHL or CLT? If they want to take advantage with AA hubs/focus city, I'd imagine LAX/ORD would be better cities for that.

steeler83 · Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:14 am

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 8):
Is there a large Japanese population in PHL or CLT? If they want to take advantage with AA hubs/focus city, I'd imagine LAX/ORD would be better cities for that.

I'm not sure about large Japanese populations as being a deciding factor, but what about business travel between Japan and Philly? I'm thinking there might be. It's a large college town and an emerging tech city as well. Heck, Philadelphia is a very diverse economy. I imagine there is high demand for travel between the two locations...

S75752 · Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:56 am

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 7):
Anything from HND will require negotiations.
How about JL doing NRT-PHL and/or CLT. 787 is the right kind of plane.

PHX is the first sensible destination of those; Either AA does it or JL does, but it seems inevitable that one of them will. PHL not far behind.

I doubt we'll see HND to DFW/IAH given HND's usual difficulties, but NRT-AUS actually seems like it could probably work with a 788. I do think we will see OZ ICN-IAH/EWR if UA doesn't do those first as well.

I think that HU PEK-OAK could be a real winner, as well as PEK-SAN as mentioned. If HU doesn't do PEK-SAN, then maybe CX would look in to HKG-SAN with a 359.

Let's also take a look at MF, who got the 788 empowering them now. I think LAX the giant black hole airport would be the obvious destination to hook up with DL, but as for where from I think that could be either HGH or XMN depending on who gives a subsidy. Or it could be some other completely random place that we'd have never guessed, if other local governments follow WUH's footsteps.

I wouldn't be surprised if the CZ 788 WUH-SFO just becomes CAN-SFO after some time, depending on how the subsidy goes, but I'm confident SFO will serve them very strongly.

There was the thought of VN coming to the USA, and my thought on it was SGN-SFO, with a short easy non-sale SFO-LAX tag, due to 359 and 3-3-3 789 range limitations.

Pipe dream is TG SFO-BKK, which seems to be in range of 77W or 789 but hasn't worked out in the past from LAX (was that a regular service or an all J?)

Finally, I think SFO-DEL is very likely, both AI and 9W have 77W's that can make it (with a guessed avoid Himalayas routing in mind) but question becomes who would codeshare with UA, given that AI somehow joined *A but 9W is the one that they actually cooperate with (domestically). That is if India gets its stuff together and gets its rating back from the FAA.

Oh, and also, let's not forget AirAsia X and their large Airbus orders. Maybe some of those will see the USA, probably too far to do a KUL but I think there could be some interesting 5th freedom ambitions there.

[Edited 2014-10-16 19:43:55]

steex · Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:01 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 6):
CX has been asking for years to fly say LAX/SFO to the west coast or even points between.

Denied. Competition not welcome.

Why would you book domestically with a carrier that charges for everything, when others actually have a real hard and soft product that people will happily pay for.

Why would CX expect to fly domestically in the United States when that's a right not afforded to foreign carriers in virtually any country in the world?

Thenoflyzone · Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:17 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
We also see NH flying to SJC and about to start PDX.

uhhh...PDX ?.......did i miss something? Since when did we go from a rumor to a confirmed route? Careful how you word your sentences.

SLCSFOPDX · Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:10 am

I think either ANA or Japan Airlines would be smart to start a NRT-AUS flight.

CZ326 · Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:08 am

Would there be a possibility that a Oneworld or any other airline could potentially start service to MIA from Asia?

Oh and for UA we have SFO-CTU but CA could do something like CTU-LAX or JFK in the foreseeable future, especially seeing as CTU is pretty much their secondary hub.

Any possibility that SQ could do SIN-East Asia-JFK service? In particular, going through HND could be good. I know for sure that they currently serve SIN-FRA-JFK and so far loads seem to be quite good.

I wonder what the chances are that MH will restart services to the US.

As for me I could see new airlines into IAH and ATL, not sure about DFW or MIA. And then we could see a lot of service from secondary Chinese cities (CTU, CKG, WUH, XIY, etc) into major US cities (LAX, JFK, SFO).

zeke · Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:20 am

Quoting steex (Reply 11):
Why would CX expect to fly domestically in the United States when that's a right not afforded to foreign carriers in virtually any country in the world?

CX effectively operate cargo services domestically already. QF have operated east to west coast for years. Australia has many foreign owned airlines flying domestically.

The better question is why not ?

SCQ83 · Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:28 am

Korean flying ICN-BOS is IMO the lacking Asian service in the Boston area.

Koreans are usually among the largest foreign communities in the Boston area colleges/universities/prep schools; normally the second in Asia only after Chinese nationals.

And ICN from BOS is a good point to connect onwards to Asia.

ASA · Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:39 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):
Korean flying ICN-BOS is IMO the lacking Asian service in the Boston area.

Koreans are usually among the largest foreign communities in the Boston area colleges/universities/prep schools; normally the second in Asia only after Chinese nationals.

And ICN from BOS is a good point to connect onwards to Asia.

Absolutely! KE would be an awesome addition to Logan and its Asian surge.

When is KE getting 789s ... or is this route potentially doable with bigger planes?

Is there any hope that DL will take this up on their so-called ramping up at BOS?

Polot · Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:39 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
QF have operated east to west coast for years. Australia has many foreign owned airlines flying domestically.

CX is probably more than free to fly LAX-JFK just like QF. Just like QF, they would not be able to carry local traffic. Since CX already flies from JFK with what, 4? flights a day, 3? nonstop (+ EWR) of course they won't do the tag. Australia is an outlier, most countries do not grant cabotage at all.

steex · Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:42 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
Australia has many foreign owned airlines flying domestically.

That's not really true, they have an open aviation market with New Zealand and they have different rules on foreign ownership. The other foreign carriers flying within Australia, such as UA's SYD-MEL, are not allowed to carry local passengers. CX would be absolutely welcome to fly domestic routes in the United States without local passengers as well.

adamh8297 · Fri Oct 17, 2014 4:18 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):

Korean flying ICN-BOS is IMO the lacking Asian service in the Boston area.

I'd add a business case for BOS-PVG as well but MU is no KE in terms of quality.

olympic472 · Fri Oct 17, 2014 4:38 pm

From secondary cities, the Asian airlines have the advantage over the US airlines:

More Asians coming to the US regardless of the front or the back of the plane.

Asians do not like transiting in the US. Lack of facilities, and unfriendly. Compare the transit experience in LAX to PEK or even NRT from their POV.

Excluding Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific; not too long ago I have friends who chooses UA over Air China anytime going over to China.
Now they are choosing Air China over UA. The reasons are obvious, While UA continues to deteriorate in every way the Asian airlines are slowly improving.

Polot · Fri Oct 17, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting olympic472 (Reply 21):
From secondary cities, the Asian airlines have the advantage over the US airlines:

The advantage is that the Asian airlines can leverage their hubs on the Asian end. Most US carriers don't have large hubs in secondary cities in the US so for them the flight would be point to point rather than hub to point.

Even then, most Asian airlines are not flying to secondary cities/airports in the US.

CHI787ORD · Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:32 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
CA PEK-ORD,

Not too likely I think. AA, HU, and UA already serve this route and there would be too much capacity.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 10):
SFO-DEL is very likely, both AI and 9W

This route will be a big money maker if and when UA, AI, or 9W come to their senses and finally launch it.

jfidler · Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:52 pm

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 5):
Any chance of OZ To IAD? Or does KE have that on lockdown?

I've wondered about this also. IAD is a good *A hub for OZ because of UA. Also, having competing services from IAD to Asia does seem to work. Both UA and NH fly to NRT, and CA just recently joined UA in providing direct service to PEK. So the only one left out with only one carrier and service per day is ICN.

wedgetail737 · Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:53 pm

I'm hoping for several more airlines to serve SEA like CX with A359's to HKG, China Southern or Xiamen to fly between
China and SEA.

Is there any room of JL to fly their 787's on the SEA-NRT route?

adamh8297 · Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:31 pm

Quoting CHI787ORD (Reply 23):
This route will be a big money maker if and when UA, AI, or 9W come to their senses and finally launch it.

Someone would have done it by now if it was a big money winner.

S75752 · Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:13 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 26):

Someone would have done it by now if it was a big money winner.

It seems more like it's probably a sleeper route, where everyone considering it was turned off by range, but whoever goes for it first may get rewarded bigtime.

Not like USA-India is exactly a money winner, considering that AI's EWR and ORD routes were some of their most unprofitable routes. Or maybe that's just a result of competition at EWR. But I think SFO is different from EWR and ORD, with less competition overall.

adamh8297 · Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:29 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 27):
Not like USA-India is exactly a money winner, considering that AI's EWR and ORD routes were some of their most unprofitable routes. Or maybe that's just a result of competition at EWR. But I think SFO is different from EWR and ORD, with less competition overall.

The one-stop competition is brutal and comes in all forms: BA, EK, CX, CA, MU, JL, LH, UA and soon EY

UA has every opportunity to fly this route but consider this - they chose serving SFO-CTU over SFO-DEL a market about 20 times larger.

S75752 · Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:35 am

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 28):
UA has every opportunity to fly this route but consider this - they chose serving SFO-CTU over SFO-DEL a market about 20 times larger.

CTU 20 times larger or DEL 20 times larger? Factor to consider is that SFO-CTU is over 1000 miles shorter than SFO-DEL (since you can't overfly the Himalayas). UA's high density 788 probably does not have the range for SFO-DEL as it is, but does have the range for SFO-CTU. SFO-CTU is just lower risk anyways.

None of the 1 stop competition has any good routings to DEL, all of them add massive amounts of miles travelled, and then stop times, on the way to DEL with the potential for added difficulty regarding Visas or whatever may be required from one nation to the other.

In fact, it's the EWR - DEL/BOM that make far less sense as they overfly Europe anyways, and a Europe stop barely adds much time or mileage at all. SFO, on the other hand, overflies virtually no viable stop places, and all existing options are massive detours.

Actually, the most direct path would be SFO-TSE-DEL which is not a detour at all, but I doubt we'll see UA nor KC put metal on that route. Though I would really love to see KC come to SFO, it seems like KC's network is unfortunately a bit... lacking currently.

adamh8297 · Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:13 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 29):
CTU 20 times larger or DEL 20 times larger?

SFO-DEL would be the larger market.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 29):
In fact, it's the EWR - DEL/BOM that make far less sense as they overfly Europe anyways, and a Europe stop barely adds much time or mileage at all.

But NYC-India is much larger than SFO-India

Quoting S75752 (Reply 29):
massive amounts of miles travelled

What's your personal definition of this? Adding over 10% of miles versus a non-stop? It hasn't stopped the ME3 from filling their planes. The majority of US-Subcontinent traffic aren't distance/time-sensitive. If you dangled SFO-EWR-BRU-DEL for under 1000 people would jump on it.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 29):
(since you can't overfly the Himalayas).

This is a contributing factor for sure.

yellowtail · Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:26 pm

There has been very consistent high level speculation that EVA is going to announce TPE-IAH

TWA772LR · Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:52 pm

How about ATL getting some China love? China Southern and China Eastern are both in Skyteam so perhaps CAN/PVG-ATL would work, with PVG-ATL having the better shot.

nomorerjs · Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:26 am

TPE to ORD and IAH seem given, you pick the carrier. SQ to ORD if routed the right way and with SA)">UA would work. JL at DFW would work, but SA)">AA needs to do DFW NRT 2x daily. SA)">UA seems to have kept NH out of IAH, for now, but SA)">UA could move IAH-NRT to KIC or ICN to ORD and tie in to SA, but SA)">UA doesn't seem to use ORD the way SA)">AA uses DFW, with less geographic benefit that SA)">AA uses DFW.

S75752 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:54 am

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 30):
But NYC-India is much larger than SFO-India

Larger, yes. But absolutely not 3x 77W and 2x 772 larger. Such a route won't be O&D on the NYC side anyways, we see AI squirming there.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 30):
What's your personal definition of this? Adding over 10% of miles versus a non-stop? It hasn't stopped the ME3 from filling their planes. The majority of US-Subcontinent traffic aren't distance/time-sensitive. If you dangled SFO-EWR-BRU-DEL for under 1000 people would jump on it.

Well, the ME3 have the unique advantage of not needing to care about profit or loss on routes... They're probably the one exception to that. They're the ones who will slaughter AI on the routes they care about- Oh wait, they already are. I think we'll be saying goodbye to AI at ORD with EK's entrance, and soon enough goodbye to some frequencies at EWR, UNLESS they start codesharing with UA, but I'm not sure the whole 9W codeshare situation, it all sounds so complicated now.
Regardless, I would be very surprised if even 10% of UA's loads to India are O&D at EWR.

Like NYC and ORD, an SFO service would need to be more than O&D at both ends to stay profitable (And like EWR, you're capturing traffic from the whole wast coast, which is a LOT). For India, you have 9W or AI as the native. For SFO, probably UA for connections. All a matter of getting them to play nicely together.

I'd say for SFO-DEL a stop usually adds around 20% or more. For EWR-DEL, stops usually add less than 10%. One things for sure, with that in mind, you'd fill the F/J cabins with time sensitive traffic, while from EWR it makes little difference.

And yes... People would jump on EWR-SFO-PVG-DEL if you have a fare under $1000. But I don't think anyone ever has fares under $1000 to India. If anyone ever does... Well hell I'd jump on that deal too.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 32):
How about ATL getting some China love? China Southern and China Eastern are both in Skyteam so perhaps CAN/PVG-ATL would work, with PVG-ATL having the better shot.

ATL has always seemed like DL keeps it mostly to itself, but I wouldn't be surprised if DL does do an ATL-PVG on their own. I have also been thinking about the possiblity of ATL-HKG on them.

AirFiero · Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:59 am

You can't overfly the Himalayas?

HKG212 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:01 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 10):
Pipe dream is TG SFO-BKK, which seems to be in range of 77W or 789 but hasn't worked out in the past from LAX (was that a regular service or an all J?)

Both BKK-LAX and BKK-JKF on 3-class A345 didn't last. I suspect BKK simply does not get enough business traffic to provides the yields required to offset the fuel burn on such a ULH route. SQ couldn't make these routes ex-SIN work either on all J or mixed J/W A345.

Quoting steex (Reply 11):
Why would CX expect to fly domestically in the United States when that's a right not afforded to foreign carriers in virtually any country in the world?

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
CX effectively operate cargo services domestically already. QF have operated east to west coast for years. Australia has many foreign owned airlines flying domestically.

The better question is why not ?

Quoting steex (Reply 19):
That's not really true, they have an open aviation market with New Zealand and they have different rules on foreign ownership. The other foreign carriers flying within Australia, such as UA's SYD-MEL, are not allowed to carry local passengers. CX would be absolutely welcome to fly domestic routes in the United States without local passengers as well.

Not many countries are large enough or have enough major cities to have this problem (in addition to the US and Australia, one thinks of Canada, Brazil, India, China, Russia), but I'm not aware of any other case where foreign airlines carrying domestic passengers is allowed (the EU being a different case in point).

Quoting olympic472 (Reply 21):
Excluding Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific; not too long ago I have friends who chooses UA over Air China anytime going over to China.
Now they are choosing Air China over UA. The reasons are obvious, While UA continues to deteriorate in every way the Asian airlines are slowly improving.

If you are talking specifically about China traffic, then what's SQ got to do with it? if it's a general observation about airline service to Asia, then many more airlines have superior service to US-based carriers, including JL, NH, OZ, KE, MH, TG.

Quoting olympic472 (Reply 21):
Asians do not like transiting in the US. Lack of facilities, and unfriendly.

The main reason Asians (and others) don't like transiting in the US is because the US does not have transit airports. They need a US visa to transit, and obtaining one is a major hassle. Even if you do have a visa, you still have to clear US border controls, which is another hassle. The quality of the airport is not really a factor IMHO.

Quoting olympic472 (Reply 21):
Compare the transit experience in LAX to PEK or even NRT from their POV.

PEK a nice transit experience? I wouldn't go that far. On the other hand, why qualify NRT with "even"? NRT T2 offers one of the best transit experiences in the world.

TWA772LR · Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:24 am

Didn't AI purpose BOM/DEL-SIN-USA earlier this year?

Yeah, I know. I just thought I'd throw it out there...

olympic472 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:47 am

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 36):
PEK a nice transit experience? I wouldn't go that far. On the other hand, why qualify NRT with "even"? NRT T2 offers one of the best transit experiences in the world.

Have you arrived at LAX as a transit point to Phoenix? Try this.
Then compare arriving at PEK as a transit to CTU.

NRT is noted with "their POV"; it has to do with the language barrier for the outbound Chinese passengers.

jetblue1965 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:39 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 37):

What's the point of DEL-SIN-USA at all ? Massive detour plus not nonstop doable economically

HKG212 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:35 am

Quoting olympic472 (Reply 38):
NRT is noted with "their POV"; it has to do with the language barrier for the outbound Chinese passengers.

Your original point was about "Asians" transiting. There are many Asians outside of China. Even for the Chinese, I'm sure the NRT transit experience is pretty good. Language barrier in NRT should not be an issue for people heading overseas, not to mention that NRT actually has some public announcements in Mandarin.

chrisnh · Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:44 am

Quoting ASA (Reply 17):
Is there any hope that DL will take this up on their so-called ramping up at BOS?

There is no better time to demonstrate an 'Asian Surge' at Boston (someone else's term) than when our own domestic carriers are utterly apathetic with respect to airports not named 'JFK.'

S75752 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:25 am

Quoting chrisnh (Reply 41):
than when our own domestic carriers are utterly apathetic with respect to airports not named 'JFK.'

And LAX. Carriers throw everything at LAX.

Quoting AirFiero (Reply 35):
You can't overfly the Himalayas?

Seems to be the case. Someone else pointed it out to me, but I think it might have had something to do with the altitude of the Himalayas being higher than the emergency altitudes if something were to go wrong.

adamh8297 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:58 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 34):
Regardless, I would be very surprised if even 10% of UA's loads to India are O&D at EWR.

Absolutely no way that is true - considering the immense Subcontinent population in New Jersey along with the many businesses there that may need flights to India.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 34):
But I don't think anyone ever has fares under $1000 to India. If anyone ever does... Well hell I'd jump on that deal too.

From BOS and NYC, a majority of the time except summer, especially with TK in those markets. I just checked fares for TK's entrance to SFO with SFO-IST-DEL in April to Mid-May 2015. Fares are as low as $756 roundtrip.

It will be interesting to see if AI and UA cooperate though in the future.

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