CX May Start Calgary In 2016

cx828 · Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:50 pm

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...361/story.html

behramjee · Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:56 pm

correct link is http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...+possible+2016/10296361/story.html

Also yes this makes perfect sense and I would like the route to be HKG-YYC-MIA 5 times per week with an A359 as MIA cannot be served nonstop from HKG. AA/WS can help out by supporting YYC-MIA-YYC feed.

zeke · Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:16 pm

CX freighter aircraft will be very common there soon.

Miami · Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:52 pm

This great news. Glad to hear YYC is on CX radar. Wish them luck, and hope this comes to a reality. YYC is a logical choice.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):
I would like the route to be HKG-YYC-MIA 5 times per week with an A359 as MIA cannot be served nonstop from HKG. AA/WS can help out by supporting YYC-MIA-YYC feed.

You make a very interesting point.

From other threads. I've seen this conversation several times. Now, we all know it's impossible (right now) to have nonstop HKG-MIA. Most of us were saying 2016 with a A359 would do good with a stop point at YVR. (Not sure if local traffic will be granted, which might help with pax loads since MIA has no nonstop flights to YVR).

But HKG-YYC-MIA (9043 mi) is shorter than HKG-YVR-MIA (9193 mi).

I'd like to see this happen. CX does something similar with their JFK ops.

Florida now has 265,000 residents of Asian heritage. Asia-Miami O&D passenger traffic are nearly 350,000 annual passengers. Miami offers the best connecting opportunities for the Hong Kong-Latin America/Caribbean travellers now at over 100,000 passengers annually.

Miami · Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:55 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 2):
CX freighter aircraft will be very common there soon.

I believe it started yesterday.

VCEflyboy · Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:27 pm

CX is so desperate to grab headlines! YYC will never happen. That's for sure!
YYC cannot even sustain a daily seasonal flight to NRT with ANA connections to everywhere in Asia.

Thenoflyzone · Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:27 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 3):
But HKG-YYC-MIA (9043 mi) is shorter than HKG-YVR-MIA (9193 mi).

No, HKG-YYC-MIA is 9091 sm. HKG-YYZ-MIA is 9043 sm. YYZ would be a more logical choice for continuing service to MIA, plus it has more demand on the YYZ-MIA front than YYC-MIA.

Besides, I dont think CX is interested in serving MIA via one stop service, or else they would have done so by now. They don't need to wait for the A359. They could always use a 77W via YYZ, if the market is as big as you say.

All of this being said, i dont know if the Canada-Hong Kong bilateral permits 5th freedom out of YYZ. That entire agreement seems to be confidential.

http://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/hong-kong

Thenoflyzone

Thenoflyzone · Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:33 pm

Quoting VCEflyboy (Reply 5):
CX is so desperate to grab headlines! YYC will never happen. That's for sure!

Not sure about the "never" part, but i kind of agree with you.

Seems like Bruce Graham was caught of guard by the Cathay Exec's comment as well, proving that a bit of hot air was blown at YYC......

"Calgary Economic Development CEO Bruce Graham — who has been working closely with the Calgary Airport Authority in an effort to secure another Asian link for air passengers — said the Cathay Pacific executive’s comments caught him off guard, "

Do we know what the annual O&D is between YYC and NRT/PEK/HKG ? That should give us a good idea as to which route we can expect next out of YYC.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2014-10-18 09:38:10]

DolphinAir747 · Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:51 pm

HKG-YVR-MIA would make perfect sense. Frankly I don't understand why CX doesn't fly to somewhere other than NYC, where they already have 4 other nonstop flights a day. HKG-YVR-MEX could be smart too.

VCEflyboy · Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:11 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 8):
HKG-YVR-MIA would make perfect sense. Frankly I don't understand why CX doesn't fly to somewhere other than NYC, where they already have 4 other nonstop flights a day. HKG-YVR-MEX could be smart too.

Canada would never issue 5th freedom for starters, and even without 5th freedom I doubt they were allowed. CX flies twice daily to YVR and AC has just managed to reach profitability with their super-high density planes after hemorrhaging cash for years. They will never let CX start a new flight that could jeopardize their house of cards.

brilondon · Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:31 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 3):

You make a very interesting point.

From other threads. I've seen this conversation several times. Now, we all know it's impossible (right now) to have nonstop HKG-MIA. Most of us were saying 2016 with a A359 would do good with a stop point at YVR. (Not sure if local traffic will be granted, which might help with pax loads since MIA has no nonstop flights to YVR).

Does Canada have any open skies agreements with Hong Kong or is it considered just another Chinese stop?

Quoting VCEflyboy (Reply 5):

CX is so desperate to grab headlines! YYC will never happen. That's for sure!
YYC cannot even sustain a daily seasonal flight to NRT with ANA connections to everywhere in Asia.

I agree, I don't see this coming around any time in the next 10-15 years especially with the cost of oil coming down as it has recently.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 8):

HKG-YVR-MIA would make perfect sense. Frankly I don't understand why CX doesn't fly to somewhere other than NYC, where they already have 4 other nonstop flights a day. HKG-YVR-MEX could be smart too.

This does not make sense to me. I would think that AA would get you to MIA through the alliance rather than flying to another country and having to go through customs or can you avoid Canadian customs and go right to the US Nazis to clear Immigration and customs at YVR like at YYZ.

bmacleod · Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:36 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 7):
Do we know what the annual O&D is between YYC and NRT/PEK/HKG ? That should give us a good idea as to which route we can expect next out of YYC.

It would depend on size of Asian travel market in YYC. YYC has been growing so fast the past 10 years that I've lost track of new airline routes...

I think only direct Asian AC flight from YYC is NRT. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Not sure about other Asian carriers into YYC.

[Edited 2014-10-18 10:39:16]

Miami · Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:02 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
This does not make sense to me. I would think that AA would get you to MIA through the alliance rather than flying to another country and having to go through customs or can you avoid Canadian customs and go right to the US Nazis to clear Immigration and customs at YVR like at YYZ.

Then ask CX why they do this with JFK.

Whiteguy · Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:10 pm

Quoting VCEflyboy (Reply 5):

CX is so desperate to grab headlines! YYC will never happen. That's for sure!
YYC cannot even sustain a daily seasonal flight to NRT with ANA connections to everywhere in Asia.

How do you come to that conclusion? YYC-NRT was daily all summer and reduced for the winter months. Planned to return to daily next summer and stay daily into the winter 2015/16.

Loads seem to be sustaining the flight, not sure what the yields are like though....

Thenoflyzone · Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:58 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
Does Canada have any open skies agreements with Hong Kong or is it considered just another Chinese stop?

Canada seems to have it's own agreement with the government of Hong Kong, apart from the one it has with China. It is definitely not open skies !

See the link I posted in reply 6.

VCEflyboy · Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:06 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 12):
Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
This does not make sense to me. I would think that AA would get you to MIA through the alliance rather than flying to another country and having to go through customs or can you avoid Canadian customs and go right to the US Nazis to clear Immigration and customs at YVR like at YYZ.

Then ask CX why they do this with JFK.

Well, until fairly recently that was the only direct link between YVR and JFK. Also, CX had a lot of O&D to justify 2 daily flights between HKG and YVR but could not serve JFK directly from HKG profitably. So it was the proverbial killing of two birds with one stone.

sunrisevalley · Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:02 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 8):
Frankly I don't understand why CX doesn't fly to somewhere other than NYC, where they already have 4 other nonstop flights a day

Its all about the freight . NYC is said to be huge air freight O&D point. CX are hauling 10 to 12t on each flight at something like a 60% gross margin.

B-HOP · Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:58 am

Hong Kong has separate agreement with Canada, I think each side has one fifth right destination, (CX to JFK, the old CP to BKK) so doubt CX could get anything from MIA, beside YVR-JFK works because the bigger population in YVR and it is an overnight transcon.

MarcoPoloWorld · Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:10 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 6):
All of this being said, i dont know if the Canada-Hong Kong bilateral permits 5th freedom out of YYZ. That entire agreement seems to be confidential.

I thought this thread was about CX service to YYC, not YYZ which is already served by CX.

But yes, why would a bilateral agreement about civil aviation be confidential? Surely because opening the door could bring a wind in to blow away AC's house of cards, as someone said up-thread.

Anyways, CX serving Calgary would be an excellent move, and one way overdue. Montréal should be next, hopefully.

B-HOP · Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:26 am

I think they mentioned YYZ because it means re-open the early flights (10am ex HKG #828) arrive MIA around dinner time and return overnight for morning departure to HKG, CX also have both flight and cabin crew base in YYZ, which make logistics easier, the past pattern for HKG to work on 889 is 8 days and in terms of allowance, quite expensive (for CX), one overnight pattern, with hotel cost and allowance sets in, runs at over US$10,000

zeke · Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:31 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 16):
Its all about the freight . NYC is said to be huge air freight O&D point. CX are hauling 10 to 12t on each flight at something like a 60% gross margin.

Not true.

RWA380 · Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:49 am

Quoting Miami (Reply 12):
Then ask CX why they do this with JFK

I've heard CX enjoys decent yields on passenger traffic, enough to warrant the continued services at least. Does the CX flight allow for many connections to AA over JFK?

Ferminios · Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:21 am

Does anyone know what the status of AC's YYC - PEK route is? What was communicated last to AC's investors was that finding a good slot in PEK was problematic. If this is still planned to go ahead, I seriously doubt that CX would try HKG - YYC.

Thenoflyzone · Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:18 am

Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 18):
Montréal should be next, hopefully.

Doubt that very much. Annual O&D between YUL and HKG is around 20,000. PVG is slightly higher, at 24,000. PEK is double at around 44,000.

Would be great if we had these O&D numbers for YYC as well.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2014-10-19 04:21:00]

brilondon · Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:52 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 14):

Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
Does Canada have any open skies agreements with Hong Kong or is it considered just another Chinese stop?

Canada seems to have it's own agreement with the government of Hong Kong, apart from the one it has with China. It is definitely not open skies !

See the link I posted in reply 6.

Thanks for the link. That has some good reading in it.

As I stated before, I believe that the price of oil diving at this point in time would be the most influential indicator for economic growth in YYC but more so in YEG where I would have thought there to be more of a market with its proximity to the oil sands that seem to fueling (pun intended) the economic engine in Alberta at the present time. Although fracing for oil seems to be the newest method of extracting black gold from the earth.

VCEflyboy · Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:36 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 23):

Would be great if we had these O&D numbers for YYC as well.

Well, let's see... 0, 0 and.... 0?

YLWbased · Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:15 pm

Quoting VCEflyboy (Reply 25):
Well, let's see... 0, 0 and.... 0?

It can't be 0, Calgary is a hot spot of Hong Kong immigrants, quite possible VFR alone could sustain a 3-4x weekly n/s flight.

Just my 2 cents.

YLWbased

c172akula · Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:31 pm

Oh man I can't wait until the new international/transborder terminal opens at YYC in 2016. It's going to open up all sorts of new flights to us.

cyeg66 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:40 pm

I can't wait to see all those A380's side by side...

MAH4546 · Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:43 pm

Quoting YLWbased (Reply 26):
It can't be 0, Calgary is a hot spot of Hong Kong immigrants, quite possible VFR alone could sustain a 3-4x weekly n/s flight.

It's not zero, but it's less than 10,000 people a year, which doesn't fill a weekly flight, let alone 3-4.

Thenoflyzone · Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:54 am

Quoting Cyeg66 (Reply 28):

I can't wait to see all those A380's side by side...

Better get them A380 gates ready!!!! Don't forget Fab, it's "Super"on initial call, and 6, 7 or 8 miles of wake turb separation behind...

Wait a minute, how silly of me....all the A380s will be arriving at the same time, so its 4 miles spacing between each.....

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 29):
It's not zero, but it's less than 10,000 people a year, which doesn't fill a weekly flight, let alone 3-4.

There ya go....That's even less than YUL-HKG, and I don't see the latter happening either. As you said, 10k or 20k a year is not enough O&D for these kind of ULH (10,000 km +) routes.

[Edited 2014-10-20 19:02:32]

Viscount724 · Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:42 am

Quoting Miami (Reply 4):
Quoting zeke (Reply 2):
CX freighter aircraft will be very common there soon.

I believe it started yesterday.

It's only twice a week, and not many people will see a CX 748 at YYC since they arrive and leave between about 0300 and 0500.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 14):
Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
Does Canada have any open skies agreements with Hong Kong or is it considered just another Chinese stop?

Canada seems to have it's own agreement with the government of Hong Kong, apart from the one it has with China. It is definitely not open skies !

HKG negotiates its own air services agreements.

Quoting b-hop (Reply 17):
Hong Kong has separate agreement with Canada, I think each side has one fifth right destination, (CX to JFK, the old CP to BKK)

CP also operated Tokyo-HKG with 5th freedom rights for over 30 years until nonstop service YVR-HKG became possible in the 1980s.

c172akula · Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:48 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 31):
It's only twice a week, and not many people will see a CX 748 at YYC since they arrive and leave between about 0300 and 0500.

Almost 0800 here right now and I will be watching their Hong Kong Trader livery 748 depart shortly. So we may get lucky every now and then.

cityairline · Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:40 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 29):
It's not zero, but it's less than 10,000 people a year, which doesn't fill a weekly flight, let alone 3-4.

Eventhough low yield, don't forget that Cathay also hunts the Filipino and Vietnamese communities on their North America-HKG routes. And in Calgary, the number of Filipinos equals the number of Chinese, so even if the the market to HKG is around 10,000, don't forget that the market to MNL should be around the same size. And CX would probably be the airline of choice for the majority.

Viscount724 · Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:45 pm

Quoting c172akula (Reply 32):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 31):
It's only twice a week, and not many people will see a CX 748 at YYC since they arrive and leave between about 0300 and 0500.

Almost 0800 here right now and I will be watching their Hong Kong Trader livery 748 depart shortly. So we may get lucky every now and then.

Wonder if it's late? The original CX press release last July announcing the YYC service showed much earlier times.

Viscount724 · Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:51 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 29):
Quoting YLWbased (Reply 26):
It can't be 0, Calgary is a hot spot of Hong Kong immigrants, quite possible VFR alone could sustain a 3-4x weekly n/s flight.

It's not zero, but it's less than 10,000 people a year, which doesn't fill a weekly flight, let alone 3-4

Assume that number is only O&D YYC-HKG? But a route from YYC would also be carrying many connecting passengers to/from other from other points in Canada (YEG/YXE/YQR/YWG etc.) with about twice the population of YYC, as well as many connections beyond HKG to/from other points in Asia.

CX Flyboy · Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:06 am

Cathay's freighter flights are quite often behind schedule so you guys will be able to get daylight departures from time to time.

Viscount724 · Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:34 am

Quoting CX Flyboy (Reply 36):
Cathay's freighter flights are quite often behind schedule so you guys will be able to get daylight departures from time to time.

And in mid-summer it's daylight in YYC before the 0515 departure, even if it's on time.

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