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frostyj
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:06 pm

Good news. I was worried our transatlantic routes would be cancelled.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:11 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 197):
Boeing on the defensive in single-aisle market?

Be interesting if Boeing and RR team up to launch the UltraFan on the NSA in 2025...   

On the other hand, one would think Boeing would not be so aggressively ramping MAX production if the market has told them they're not a preferred supplier.

[Edited 2014-10-22 16:07:44]
 
Viscount724
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:34 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 54):
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 35):
This is still not a true 757 replacement

Very few types ever have "true" replacements.

DC-3 and Twin Otter are good examples.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 58):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 54):
true DC-10/L-1011 replacement

Actually, there are two true DC-10 and L-1011 replacements: the 764ER and A332. Both have more range and cargo capacity than the DC-10 and L-1011 while carrying a similar number of passengers at a lower cost.

686 DC-10s and L-1011s were built (not counting the 60 KC-10 tankers for the USAF). Since they all had to be replaced, if the 764 was a true replacement, why were only 37 sold?
 
kurtverbose
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:38 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 201):
Be interesting if Boeing and RR team up to launch the UltraFan on the NSA in 2025...

I'd like to see that but Boeing and GE just seem so closely connected.

Sad though it is to see I think RR will find it very hard to get back into the narrow body market. On the Airbus side CFM and IAE have such entrenched commercial and political connections and I can't imagine three engines being offered. On the Boeing side - maybe if they drop single source, but then RR would have to offer something better than IAE has - which may happen.
 
Armodeen
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:46 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 47):
Might sound trivial, but a lot of secondary UK/Ireland airports still only have 8,000 ft or so runways. Some even shorter, like LTN, NCL, BRS, EXT, LPL, CWL, LBA or ORK. It might become an issue, especially if the A321neoLR is designed to open up TATL markets from secondary airports such as these. The 757 might still be the only available option for places like these.

I'm not sure how many airlines are clamouring to start TATL services from those airports, to be honest.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:48 pm

Quoting StTim (Reply 195):

Reading the Boeing financials today I suspect that until the 787 program atarts to cost less to produce than it sells for that any major new development will not be sanctioned.


It's easy to forget that the vast majority of orders placed for the 787 where at a time when its list price was just 120 million before discounts. Although unable to locate the article at present I know one of the US majors went on record as stating that they paid less than 80 Million US per frame. With the list price now at $220 million and Boeing still unable to produce a profit on a per frame basis it's worth reminding ourself that although this will undoubtedly be an incredibly successful program, it isn't yet, and has a long way to go. More still, with the recent launch of the A330NEO Airbus is going to ,make Boeing fight for every cent. This is without even going into what has to be the most perfectly executed aircraft launch in recent times; the A350, which forcing Boeing to spend billions just to remain in the game.

Certainly Airbus have their own issues to contend with, how easily the A350 ramp up will be remains to be seen and its anyone's guess how to best approach the 77X - From below with a further stretch of the A350, or above by updating the A380.

What can be said with confidence however, is the A320NEO was an absolute master-stroke. I remember the initial threads here in which posters were quoting Boeing stating that the NEO would just be bringing the A320 on a par with the 737NG and Boeing could afford to ignore its launch. I don't think even a month had gone by before Boeing were promising the world to American just so they could get a share of their record breaking narrow body order. And today, 1000's of orders later Airbus still hold a 60% share of the market - Something completely unfathomable even as little as a decade ago.

To summarise, I just re-watched a documentary following the development of the 777. In it, one of the senior directors discusses the name of the first test aircraft"working together" in his own words; Boeing had been guilty of taking their customers for granted and while internally they had struggled to integrate the two workforces the "competition" had quietly entrenched itself on the lawn and established a customer base.

We all of course know the result of "working together" - certainly the most significant civil aviation development in decades and arguably one of the best products Boeing has produced. It's almost with concern that I look upon Boeing's current situation, and comparatively speaking, the issues they feared in the 90's seem almost trivial.

If there was ever a time for a "working together" moment....
 
caljn
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:52 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 205):
If there was ever a time for a "working together" moment....

Some melodrama to end a long day...they will be just fine, thank you very much.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:53 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 202):
Since they all had to be replaced, if the 764 was a true replacement, why were only 37 sold?

Because it was specifically DESIGNED for that purpose to keep DL and CO from defecting to Airbus. Pointing to sales numbers is a very weak argument that Airbus fans enjoy. Anyone who does that should be permanently banned from these forums.

[Edited 2014-10-22 17:55:25]
 
RickNRoll
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:21 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 205):
What can be said with confidence however, is the A320NEO was an absolute master-stroke. I remember the initial threads here in which posters were quoting Boeing stating that the NEO would just be bringing the A320 on a par with the 737NG and Boeing could afford to ignore its launch. I don't think even a month had gone by before Boeing were promising the world to American just so they could get a share of their record breaking narrow body order. And today, 1000's of orders later Airbus still hold a 60% share of the market - Something completely unfathomable even as little as a decade ago.

I don't know if you can call it a 'master stroke'. They took advantage of an opportunity in a rational and methodical manner. It would have been nice to see something radical like a new wing or stretch. The GTF will have to do for now.
 
flyabr
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:25 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 207):
Because it was specifically DESIGNED for that purpose to keep DL and CO from defecting to Airbus. Pointing to sales numbers is a very weak argument that Airbus fans enjoy. Anyone who does that should be permanently banned from these forums.

Using sales success is a weak argument ... ? wow! Do you really believe everything you write on here? Anyway, NW had some 40+ DC-10 frames to replace...and didn't order a single 764. Based on sales numbers...it's obvious the A330 was a better replacement for most trijet operators than the 764. And I have nothing against the 764, I actually kinda like DL's!
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:26 am

Quoting Highflier92660 (Reply 185):
When Mcnerney says "no more moon shots" it is probably a good assumption to believe Boeing's going into risk-averse mode. Translated: if-it-ain't-broke-don't-fix-it. For those who believe bold futurists and aeronautical engineers should rule the Earth, the man is 65 years of age. Retirement and/or platinum parachutes can't be that far off.

I bet this person is still haunted by the 787 program…hence his comments

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 207):
Because it was specifically DESIGNED for that purpose to keep DL and CO from defecting to Airbus. Pointing to sales numbers is a very weak argument that Airbus fans enjoy. Anyone who does that should be permanently banned from these forums.

Careful, one day someone might use your own words to let you know why the 764 is not the best aircraft ever…

Well back on topic…

On the second article something struck me as very important…WHAT IF A MAKES THE 321LR in Alabama???

holy cow! something to consider, politically, economically, and in public relations…

I don't think Boeing will spend a lot of money counteracting this segment, is not that big (for now), it doesn't warrantee spending a few billions to make a pissing contest, and I think It would be better spent on their current product (MAX series) and the successor of that … then again weirder things have happened before….

TRB
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:30 am

Quoting flyabr (Reply 209):
Based on sales numbers...it's obvious the A330 was a better replacement for most trijet operators than the 764.

But not for DL and CO, who didn't need the extra range or cargo capacity of the A330. The 764ER already has more range and cargo capacity than the DC-10/L-1011 and does the job for the role of a DC-10/L-1011 replacement. It should be a class 1 felony to make arguments with sales numbers. What applies to other airlines is irrelevant to what applies to DL and CO.

Take smartphones for instance: the iPhone is the best selling smartphone in the world, but it is an ABSOLUTE FACT that Samsung makes much better phones REGARDLESS OF SALES. Apple just wins on loyalty, not superior product.

[Edited 2014-10-22 18:32:42]
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:33 am

Quoting caljn (Reply 206):

No thank you very much. More specifically the US tax payer as without the blatant fraud Boeing and many other defence contractors commit against the US government they would have been in serious financial trouble right now.

If it wasn't so unfair it would be funny, but when the US Air Force refuses to buy Boeing's product on the grounds that it's antiquated and a complete rip off then you know something is wrong. But the real icing on the cake was Boeing forgetting the price fixing and bribery they had committed (assuming they had already won of course) demanded an inquest. Resulting in criminal proceedings and prison sentences for staff in Chicago LOL

Yet despite all of this there is still the conman misconception that EADS receives unfair benefits such as Launch aid. Again, not without irony the USBoeing brought a WTO case against the EU and EADS, which basically ruled Launch aid was legal and EADS had no unfair advantages, however they did discover over 5 billion $ worth of grants and financial assistance that Boeing has received that was illegal. Glass houses and all that.

Anyhow, a little off topic - but makes a change from the usual A380 bashing.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:43 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 211):
Take smartphones for instance: the iPhone is the best selling smartphone in the world, but it is an ABSOLUTE FACT that Samsung makes much better phones REGARDLESS OF SALES. Apple just wins on loyalty, not superior product.

Which explains why the only money Samsung makes from smartphones is the chips they sell to Apple for use in the iPhone.

But Apple / Samsung has as much relevance to the topic as the 767-400ER does, so let's drop both and get back to said topic - a proposed new Weight Variant for the A321-200neo - shall we?

[Edited 2014-10-22 18:46:29]
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:49 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 213):
But Apple / Samsung has as much relevance to the topic as the 767-400ER does, so let's drop both and get back to said topic - a proposed new Weight Variant for the A321-200neo - shall we?

The problem is that whenever I just MENTION the 764ER, there is always a bashing post at least one Airbus fan. This has to be stopped.
 
777STL
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:01 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 211):
Take smartphones for instance: the iPhone is the best selling smartphone in the world, but it is an ABSOLUTE FACT that Samsung makes much better phones REGARDLESS OF SALES. Apple just wins on loyalty, not superior product.

In other words, you're acknowledging that the A330 is the superior aircraft, but like Apple consumers, DL and CO bought 764s because they were loyal to the brand, not because they thought it was the best tool for the mission?

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 214):
The problem is that whenever I just MENTION the 764ER, there is always a bashing post at least one Airbus fan. This has to be stopped.

As long as he's not issuing personal attacks, I don't know what gives you the right to dictate what other people can and can't criticize. The 764 may have kept DL and CO in the Boeing fold, for all the good that ended up doing, but you're only kidding yourself if you think the 764 was a commercial success.
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:04 am

I have to say, I predicted this months ago... but so did lots of other people. The arguments were exactly the same as Airbus are using as well. I don't believe this will stop the 757 replacement threads. The "What will Boeing do now" threads will explode.. but that's part of the fun of A.net.

This is the perfect aircraft for Icelandair, Scandinavian Airlines, UA, AA, DL and a lot of others. I really wonder what Icelandair executives are thinking now...

Quoting SASDC8 (Reply 53):

If UA ends up ordering it will be great news for the future of their thin TATL routes from EWR. 3900nm range is (at least theoretically) enough to reach most UA 757 TATL destinations in the UK and central Europe. ARN and possibly OSL will be a stretch.

Airbus and Boeing operate with different calculations. The 757-200 has a range of 4,100NM on paper, but in reality it has around 3,800NM range. The A321neoLR will have 100NM further range than the 757-200 (according to Airbus). So it should have no problems filling the current TATL routes operated by 757. Which is one of the major points of this aircraft.

Quoting flyinggoat (Reply 43):

I'd be curious to see what changes will be done to the wing, as well as the MLG. Double bogie gear would look pretty neat on the A321.
Quoting hotplane (Reply 44):
Those Indian A320s years ago had double bogies, so it can be done.

I'm guessing we will see the A321neoLR with double bogies if that's the case. I'm very curious about the wing as well. I don't think it will be that different from the current one, due to certification/commonality issues. But we'll see.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:04 am

Quoting 777stl (Reply 215):
In other words, you're acknowledging that the A330 is the superior aircraft, but like Apple consumers, DL and CO bought 764s because they were loyal to the brand, not because they thought it was the best tool for the mission?
Quoting 777stl (Reply 215):
As long as he's not issuing personal attacks, I don't know what gives you the right to dictate what other people can and can't criticize. The 764 may have kept DL and CO in the Boeing fold, for all the good that ended up doing, but you're only kidding yourself if you think the 764 was a commercial success.

Because without it, DL and CO would have ordered A330s, which would have led to more Airbus orders down the road. That was its primary mission and anyone who denies this is a sworn-to-God liar that should be permanently banned from these forums and imprisoned for life. And I do have the legal right to dictate what users can and can't criticize because any such criticism of the 764ER is downright defamatory, which is a crime. I might as well report such defamation to Boeing (I won't do it, but remember that I do have the legal right to do so).

[Edited 2014-10-22 19:09:28]
 
caljn
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:11 am

[quote=Daysleeper,reply=212]No thank you very much. More specifically the US tax payer as without the blatant fraud Boeing and many other defence contractors commit against the US government they would have been in serious financial trouble right now.

If it wasn't so unfair it would be funny, but when the US Air Force refuses to buy Boeing's product on the grounds that it's antiquated and a complete rip off then you know something is wrong. But the real icing on the cake was Boeing forgetting the price fixing and bribery they had committed (assuming they had already won of course) demanded an inquest. Resulting in criminal proceedings and prison sentences for staff in Chicago LOL

Yet despite all of this there is still the conman misconception that EADS receives unfair benefits such as Launch aid. Again, not without irony the USBoeing brought a WTO case against the EU and EADS, which basically ruled Launch aid was legal and EADS had no unfair advantages, however they did discover over 5 billion $ worth of grants and financial assistance that Boeing has received that was illegal. Glass houses and all that.

Anyhow, a little off topic - but makes a change from the usual A380 bashing.


Huh?? Over-reaction much? Quite a response to my implied, expected non-response from Boeing. Alone tonight are ya'?
 
flyabr
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 216):
I'm guessing we will see the A321neoLR with double bogies if that's the case.

Why did those Indian A320s have double bogeys anyway?

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 217):
Because without it, DL and CO would have ordered A330s, which would have led to more Airbus orders down the road. That was its primary mission and anyone who denies this is a sworn-to-God liar that should be permanently banned from these forums and imprisoned for life. And I do have the legal right to dictate what users can and can't criticize because any such criticism of the 764ER is downright defamatory, which is a crime. I might as well report such defamation to Boeing.

This is one of the most bizarre things I've ever read on A-net!
 
777STL
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 217):
Because without it, DL and CO would have ordered A330s, which would have led to more Airbus orders down the road. That was its primary mission and anyone who denies this is a sworn-to-God liar that should be permanently banned from these forums and imprisoned for life.

Didn't DL just order a bunch of A330s as it is? So, what are you braying on about?

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 217):
And I do have the right to dictate what users can and can't criticize because any such criticism of the 764ER is downright defamatory, which is a crime.

Ok, Perry Mason.

It's only defamatory if it can be proven false. And even then, it's only worth worrying about if it causes commercial damage. I don't think Boeing, DL, CO or anyone else cares what a bunch of adolescents are arguing about on some airplane website. Especially regarding a model of aircraft that's basically dead. And if you continue to proceed to tell me what I can or can't say, I'll promptly tell you to shove it up your ***.  

[Edited 2014-10-22 19:18:20]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 216):
I'm guessing we will see the A321neoLR with double bogies if that's the case. I'm very curious about the wing as well. I don't think it will be that different from the current one, due to certification/commonality issues. But we'll see.
Quoting flyabr (Reply 219):
Why did those Indian A320s have double bogeys anyway?

I'm pretty confident that double-bogies will not be necessary with the new weight variant. Said bogies were designed to the condition of select Indian airfields those frames operated out of and I believe that they were later retrofitted back to the single axle (as it was lighter).

[Edited 2014-10-22 19:17:08]
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:18 am

Quoting 777stl (Reply 220):
Didn't DL just order a bunch of A330s as it is? So, what are you braying on about?

That was post-merger. Had DL stayed independent it could have been different. A merger with NW was not anticipated at the time DL ordered the 764ER.
 
777STL
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:20 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 222):
That was post-merger. Had DL stayed independent it could have been different. A merger with NW was not anticipated at the time DL ordered the 764ER.

And it's still DL's management team running the show though, which sort of renders your entire argument moot.
 
eaa3
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:22 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 216):
I really wonder what Icelandair executives are thinking now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwQW3KW3DCc

They have no choice. They have to buy this aircraft to replace their entire fleet. The future of the business depends upon it. This aircraft is made exactly for them. It's very efficient for flights to Europe and can make it to all of their North American destinations. And since they can buy A320's as well they will be able to add lot's of smaller destinations while maintaining one fleet type.

I think they'll end up either selling their B737MAX orders, leasing them out or converting them all to B737-8MAX. Those may still be useful. I do wonder however what it would cost to cancel the 16 ordered planes.

This was however a foreseeable mistake. The A321NEO was always a better replacement for the B757, especially given the runway constraints of the B737-9 that meant that the advertised range was only theoretical. In reality Icelandair would have had to fly these aircraft below MTOW. I never understood their decision.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:24 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 207):
Because it was specifically DESIGNED for that purpose to keep DL and CO from defecting to Airbus. Pointing to sales numbers is a very weak argument that Airbus fans enjoy. Anyone who does that should be permanently banned from these forums.

Anyone using sales figures as a measure of a designs success should be banned? Do you read what you type before posting it?

In regards to the 764, are you saying that it was specifically designed to stop DL and CO ordering the A330 and nothing else? As if memory serves me correct, then this was designed when the gentleman's agreement was in effect so they couldn't have ordered anything else anyhow.

More to the point, as soon as DL was unconstrained by the agreement they immediately ordered A330's, and given Boeing is busy crazy gluing various 767 parts together to sell to the USAF then I'm sure if Delta wanted some more 764's they could have got them.

I think the sad realisation is that the 764 was produced in order for Boeing to keep the "agreement" going. It was the bare minimum Boeing could offer in order to keep Dl and CO happy. Had the airframe any merit in its own regard then other Airlines would have ordered it too, they didn't because the Airbus is better. FACT!!!!!  
Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 211):
Take smartphones for instance: the iPhone is the best selling smartphone in the world, but it is an ABSOLUTE FACT that Samsung makes much better phones REGARDLESS OF SALES. Apple just wins on loyalty, not superior product.

I'm just quoting that for prosperity. It reminds me of debating with creationist nutcases, Evolution is just a THEORY where as CREATIONISM is FACT as its written in the BIBLE. LMAO
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:30 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 205):

We all of course know the result of "working together" - certainly the most significant civil aviation development in decades and arguably one of the best products Boeing has produced. It's almost with concern that I look upon Boeing's current situation, and comparatively speaking, the issues they feared in the 90's seem almost trivial.

All at the same time management is doing its best to demoralize the workforce by shutting down pensions, etc. I have a hard time seeing the workforce knocking itself out these days to try to save the company's bacon.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:35 am

Quoting caljn (Reply 218):

Yeah, sorry about that I expected it to be deleted before I had refreshed the page. This thread had been lost a few pages up so i decided to go on a rant.

Nothing personal.

My apologies

Dave
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:36 am

Somehow this very interesting Airbus A321Neo LR is turning into A net A vs B mumbo jumbo...

I wonder if Doric will order 500 A321NeoLR, and lease them cheaply...   

One interesting thing about this aircraft is that it shows the potential of the original A320 size designed in 1987...very interesting that it had such tremendous growth potential.

on a side note I think its going to be the best looking A320 family AC. The 320Neo looks weird with such big fans

TRB
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:40 am

Quoting eaa3 (Reply 224):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwQW3KW3DCc

They have no choice. They have to buy this aircraft to replace their entire fleet. The future of the business depends upon it. This aircraft is made exactly for them. It's very efficient for flights to Europe and can make it to all of their North American destinations. And since they can buy A320's as well they will be able to add lot's of smaller destinations while maintaining one fleet type.

I think they'll end up either selling their B737MAX orders, leasing them out or converting them all to B737-8MAX. Those may still be useful. I do wonder however what it would cost to cancel the 16 ordered planes.

This was however a foreseeable mistake. The A321NEO was always a better replacement for the B757, especially given the runway constraints of the B737-9 that meant that the advertised range was only theoretical. In reality Icelandair would have had to fly these aircraft below MTOW. I never understood their decision.

Hehe.. funny video and spot on.

Yeah, I agree with everything you're saying. I was very surprised when they announced they had chosen the 737 MAX. It's a good plane, but it's just not suitable for their business model. The A321neoLR mixed with some A320neo and A319neo would be the best choice for them, no doubt about it.
 
eaa3
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:54 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 229):
Yeah, I agree with everything you're saying. I was very surprised when they announced they had chosen the 737 MAX. It's a good plane, but it's just not suitable for their business model. The A321neoLR mixed with some A320neo and A319neo would be the best choice for them, no doubt about it.

There is this other thread active about what destinations in North America they should add. The fact is that with that mix they could go into basically any market they wanted to and create an unbeatable hub in Iceland. Although, the A321NEO LR and the B737-8 would also be a mix that would work. It would just be less efficient than one model.

A couple of years ago they did order 15 B737-800 and leased them all out. Some they even packaged together with a lease contract and sold to Wall Street. It shouldn't be difficult to get rid of the orders they have.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:08 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 225):
gentleman's agreement was in effect so they couldn't have ordered anything else anyhow.

A gentleman's agreement is NON-BINDING. DL and CO had no legal obligation to order the 764ER, nor was Boeing pointing a gun towards their CEOs' heads to forcibly get them to order it.
 
Pacific
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:11 am

Totally missed the different B vs A philosophy in range calculation in the original article. D'oh.    This is going to be one heck of an aircraft.

Interesting how the range keeps improving over time. 3 hour aeroplanes becoming 9 hour aircraft. Truly staggering. Surely, a market would open up for a MD-80 type shorter haul narrowbody in the same segment. *If* Bombardier manages to sort out the CSeries, it's ready to fill in this hypthetical "gap" that B and A have opened up by overbuilding their airframes.

[Edited 2014-10-22 21:14:10]
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:28 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 149):
And ORD is probably just a widebody market because it is tricky to fly with a narrow body today, 100nm extra range may change that and make it feasable and probably cheaper to do.

ORD is a widebody market because it's an enormous city and financial center in the Midwest (which gets awful in the winter, trust me...I'm from Detroit).

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 180):
the article says, Airbus admit the tatl replacement market is only for 40 aircraft,

There are markets other than TATL for which this variant might be useful. It opens up a fair chunk of South America from the US. There's a fair chunk of India and Africa available to Europe, too. From Japan, northern Australia and a chunk of India is open, too.
 
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mercure1
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting eaa3 (Reply 224):
I never understood their decision.

probably got a price from B that made them forget (only temporarily now) what mission capability they actually needed to replace all those B757Ws.
 
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zeke
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:49 am

Quoting Pacific (Reply 232):

Interesting how the range keeps improving over time. 3 hour aeroplanes becoming 9 hour aircraft. Truly staggering. Surely, a market would open up for a MD-80 type shorter haul narrowbody in the same segment. *If* Bombardier manages to sort out the CSeries, it's ready to fill in this hypthetical "gap" that B and A have opened up by overbuilding their airframes.

The basic reason why you are seeing the range and payload improvements is the amount of investment Airbus puts into it's existing products, I believe they are the industry leader in terms of the amount they invest in R&D into existing products.

The other factor that helps them is the common philosophy they have across types, for example a method to help load alleviation to increase weights in the A330 could be transferred in a software upgrade to the A320 series. A320neo upgrades applied to the A330 neo etc.

I would love to see the distribution of frequency vs range of 757 routes, I would not be surprised to see the majority of them are under 2500nm, and 90% of them under 3000 nm. That would mean the aircraft would be able to meet the majority of the 200 seat/2500 nm market more efficiently.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:52 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 194):
But it won't be a 737 derivative, especially given the above statistics.
The trouble is, as the 737-8MAX Is selling so well, can Boeing really afford to can the programme just to create an all-new frame JUST to respond to the A321NEo LR?
I doubt it somehow

But if the GTF blows the LEAP-X out of the water (which I believe may well happen, and I hope it does) Boeing will have to do something, and since they are tied into an exclusive deal with GE they may well have to jump ahead with the NSA.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:12 am

And what if the GTF proves to be unreliable and problematic, then Boeing has the LEAP-x optimized plane. I think Boeing could even give the 737 a new wing and destroy the A320 series with the NSA, if they need to. Boeing has all cards in the hand and I am sure they will beat Airbus again.
 
bobdino
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:16 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 236):
But if the GTF blows the LEAP-X out of the water (which I believe may well happen, and I hope it does) Boeing will have to do something, and since they are tied into an exclusive deal with GE they may well have to jump ahead with the NSA.

As I understand it, to put a GTF under the wing would require essentially a whole new airplane anyway. The redesign of the 737 to accommodate the required ground clearance would be prohibitively expensive.
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:44 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 196):
Let us not forget that Boeing's preferred choice was to launch Y1 / NSA - it was their customers that essentially forced their hand into launching the MAX instead.



And THEY were forced into doing so by airbus launching the NEO

Quoting ricknroll (Reply 208):
I don't know if you can call it a 'master stroke'. They took advantage of an opportunity in a rational and methodical manner. It would have been nice to see something radical like a new wing or stretch. The GTF will have to do for now.



No new wing or stretch is exactly why it was a masterstroke.
90%+ commonality with the existing plane?
No matter how long you live I don't believe that you will ever see an aircraft programme launched where so little investment will have had such a large impact on the dynamics of the aircraft market.
As Stitch points out, Boeing were absolutely set on launching an all-new narrowbody - NSA
(you know, the one that we were all threatened with on A-net back in 2006 when the A380 started to go late as entering service in 2012 and along with the 787, closing Airbus).

Instead of launching the "masterblow" Boeing ended up desperately scrabbling around trying to react to the launch of the A320NEO.
They ended up going with the second best investment decision ever made in Airliner space (IMO) - the 737 MAX
Under the threat of an all-new aircraft, sticking with the A320 was a phenomenally brave move IMO, and it paid off.
Watch the video of the A320NEO 1st flight again and listen to Bregier's and Enders' comments.
Masterstroke? Absolutely  

The A321NEO LR? If you read the article carefully it's not actually formally launched yet.
For my money, the A321NEO already covers about 95% of the 757 market anyway.
If it is launched it will probably take the prize for the most impact on A-net for the least impact in the marketplace.
We do LOVE the 757  
Quoting seahawk (Reply 237):
And what if the GTF proves to be unreliable and problematic, then Boeing has the LEAP-x optimized plane. I think Boeing could even give the 737 a new wing and destroy the A320 series with the NSA, if they need to. Boeing has all cards in the hand and I am sure they will beat Airbus again

I'm sure there's some deep humour lurking around underneath this comment somewhere.
If the Leap X proves to be a better in-service option than the GTF the 737 MAX will be here to stay for along time IMO.
The 737-8MAX is a great plane.
Has already sold over 2000 copies and is still 3 years away from EIS
Whilst that is happening, I don't see Boeing killing such a healthy baby just because the 737-9MAX is somewhat disadvantaged.

Will be interesting to see what if anything they do do.

Rgds
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:59 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 237):
And what if the GTF proves to be unreliable and problematic, then Boeing has the LEAP-x optimized plane.

As does Airbus, let's not forget.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 237):
I think Boeing could even give the 737 a new wing and destroy the A320 series with the NSA, if they need to. Boeing has all cards in the hand and I am sure they will beat Airbus again.

Did you leave off the smilie?
 
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:26 am

I think, that if the market is seen as big enough, both have the means and the resources to go for it. It was not long ago, that people said a A321 will never be able to match a 757 in range. Sure getting the 737 to match the A321NEO will be a challenge and need some serious work, but if it would be worth the effort, Boeing will do it. And while I agree that the 737 will be very unlikely to be able to do it, they still have other options reaching from a new design over a 787 regional to a 767NEO or a re-winged 737. Personally I think Boeing will be confident to put pressure on the A320 with the 737-8(200) while Airbus will be happy to dominate the 737-9 with the A321.

But then I refuse to call a winner before both products have at least flown 3-5 years in airline service and we have seen real world data on their performance. My gut tells me that the GTF could be very valuable for Airbus though. (but it could also be a failure)
 
UA444
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:11 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 211):
Take smartphones for instance: the iPhone is the best selling smartphone in the world, but it is an ABSOLUTE FACT that Samsung makes much better phones REGARDLESS OF SALES. Apple just wins on loyalty, not superior product.

Blind loyalty is what has kept inferior products like the 737-900 and 767-400 in production.. Boeing could've strapped wings to a toilet and Gordon Bethune and COol-Aiders would've bought it no question. These same people bought brand new 762s when they bought those 764s, when nobody was buying 762s at that point. And hilariously enough, DL not only ended up with A330s, they ordered MORE when they could've gone for more 764s. That's gotta hurt. The market has spoken.

[Edited 2014-10-23 00:14:20]
 
747400sp
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:13 am

I would be nice if Airbus built a new narrow body based on the A32x family, like they did with the A300 for the A330.
 
UALWN
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:15 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 207):
Pointing to sales numbers is a very weak argument that Airbus fans enjoy. Anyone who does that should be permanently banned from these forums.

I guess I should bring that up every time somebody points out (correctly) that the 77W has destroyed the A340 on sales...

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 211):
the iPhone is the best selling smartphone in the world, but it is an ABSOLUTE FACT that Samsung makes much better phones REGARDLESS OF SALES.

An absolute fact? In capital letters? You can't be serious.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 214):
The problem is that whenever I just MENTION the 764ER, there is always a bashing post at least one Airbus fan. This has to be stopped.

Maybe the reason is that you bring up the 764 in every single thread in which you participate, Even if, as in this case, it has absolutely nothing to do with it!

Quoting seahawk (Reply 237):
Boeing has all cards in the hand and I am sure they will beat Airbus again.

Again? As in with the 737NG vs. the A32Xceo? Or as in with the 737MAx vs. the A32X neo?

[Edited 2014-10-23 00:17:55]
 
UA444
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:16 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 237):
And what if the GTF proves to be unreliable and problematic, then Boeing has the LEAP-x optimized plane. I think Boeing could even give the 737 a new wing and destroy the A320 series with the NSA, if they need to. Boeing has all cards in the hand and I am sure they will beat Airbus again.

And what if the LEAP-x proves to be unreliable and problematic? Then Boeing has nothing to stand on.

Airbus has Boeing completely cornered here. The 737 is simply no match for the proposed capabilities of this plane. If they want to compete 1-1, it will have to be a brand new a/c, which is now going to be at least 15 years away. That's a huge advantage for Airbus.
 
travelavnut
Posts: 1327
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:24 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 231):
NON-BINDING

Take it easy with the caps-lock buddy, we're all reading your replies (for entertainment purposes   )
 
Max Q
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:28 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 119):
PW powered 757s have better fuel burn and range, DL's don't divert nearly as often as those old CO birds do. And the real UA planes are being retired simply because your beloved management blowhards are delusional and simply playing favorites

No the UA 757's are being retired because they are old and worn out. While some may be not quite as ancient the number of cycles on these frames and the neglect of maintenance during UA's many bad years really has cut into their useful life.


They have been 'ridden hard and put away wet' , it shows and it's time for them to go.


CAL's 757's however since being delivered new with the most powerful engines available, highest gross weight and all the latest updates including PIP and winglets (completely unlike the UA aircraft) have been used on long haul and transcon flights since day one and as a result have far less cycles . They have also been meticulously maintained their whole lives once again completely unlike UA's 757's.



Management, for all their faults knows this very well and choose to use the better product in the most demanding markets and missions, that's playing it smart.
 
simjim
Posts: 29
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:33 am

Could Boeing counter with a 757neo? I know bringing an old line back to production could be costly, but if there is a sufficient market out there between the three US legacies and Asian carriers, maybe it could be profitable for Boeing, before Y1 is developed.

While we are on the subject of narrow bodies for long flights, could an airline configure a single aisle airplane in an all economy 2-1-2 twin aisle configuration? Could it meet safety regulations? Would it be profitable, if ticket prices on such a configuration, were offered at premium economy prices?
 
hibtastic
Posts: 410
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:54 am

RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 - Leeham

Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:36 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 207):
Because it was specifically DESIGNED for that purpose to keep DL and CO from defecting to Airbus. Pointing to sales numbers is a very weak argument that Airbus fans enjoy. Anyone who does that should be permanently banned from these forums.

Pointing out sales numbers is the strongest argument there is. Why else would you make an aircraft if not to sell it?

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 214):
The problem is that whenever I just MENTION the 764ER, there is always a bashing post at least one Airbus fan. This has to be stopped.

Perhaps you should take the hint that what other people are doing is talking sense, not bashing and that does not make them an Airbus fan, I would say it makes them intelligent. FWIW I think Boeing deep down know that the 764 never stood a chance against the A330. Likewise they know that the A340 never stood a chance against the 777.

I'm not even going to address your post after this because it is just ridiculous.

Quoting Max Q (Reply 247):
No the UA 757's are being retired because they are old and worn out. While some may be not quite as ancient the number of cycles on these frames and the neglect of maintenance during UA's many bad years really has cut into their useful life.

This is true, many of UA's flights to/from EDI went tech during the summer and on a few occasions, guess what they sent instead - the 764.

[Edited 2014-10-23 00:39:00]

[Edited 2014-10-23 00:39:47]

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