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Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:56 pm

Here is the link to the previous discussion.

Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 2 (by 777ER Oct 23 2014 in Civil Aviation)

To continue, please post here.

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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:06 pm

I hope we can continue to discuss the A321neoLR in this part without the distractions of marine life and the 0.0005% of the B752's capacity envelope the new frame will not be able to cover; it's getting tedious.

How about, for once, we discuss the merits of a new frame without taking parochial sides; it's evolution of aviation, and as such, we should embrace it, irrespective of which manufacturer we hold a light to.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:13 pm

The type of range talked about might be useful to carriers like Jetstar...

example, just punching some random S.E asian airports into GC Mapper:




MEL SIN 306.2° (NW) 3253 nm
MEL DPS 309.4° (NW) 2363 nm
MEL CGK 302.4° (NW) 2811 nm
MEL MNL 332.0° (NW) 3397 nm
MEL HKT 306.1° (NW) 3781 nm
MEL SGN 315.4° (NW) 3608 nm
MEL CEB 333.4° (NW) 3099 nm
MEL KUL 305.1° (NW) 3405 nm
MEL BKI 321.9° (NW) 3065 nm

SIN/DPS/HKT flights, currently 330/787 could go onto the 321s and 787s reployed to longer routes elsewhere.

anyhow, food for thought.
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:21 pm

The, on paper, range limit ex MEL:



MEL OKA 343.0° (N) 3939 nm
MEL TPE 336.6° (NW) 3981 nm
MEL REP 314.5° (NW) 3831 nm
MEL HKG 328.7° (NW) 3989 nm
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:32 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 1):
How about, for once, we discuss the merits of a new frame without taking parochial sides; it's evolution of aviation, and as such, we should embrace it, irrespective of which manufacturer we hold a light to.

Its a gas tank instead of cargo capacity and a thrust bump to an already defined aircraft, not a new frame. People should be less parochial about it and call it (accept it for) what it is. You're right, it is getting tedious.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:25 am

Personally I like the 757, but i can see the A321 replacing it. I think that Boeing is willing to concede that niche to Airbus, as they have their plate full with the 777X, 787, and the 737MAX. Also the wide bodies are more profitable. Boeing management has made it clear that that profitability trumps everything else. Gone are they days when the plane guys ran the show. Now it is all about the money.
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:27 am

For me, I wonder which current 752 operator will be interested. UA seems to be pretty committed to the 737 family for future use and the addition of an A321 variant subfleet would introduce operational challenges. AA seems like a likely candidate. DL is the wild card.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:38 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 177):
I too would like to know what routes are excluded economically. Due to the *much* lower cost per flight, far fewer passengers must be carried (and most will be the high RASM ones).

With GS putting out their detailed analysis for oil to reach $70 in Q2 next year... and Dennis Gartner on CNBC laying out that oil will hit eventually $50 or $40 (hey, isn't that what Adam Pilarski bet by 2018   ) there won't be too many routes that are excluded economically.   

Of course, there are consequences with low oil for the OEMs (hint: UAL keeping their 763s around ).  

And other paid-for "war horses" (like the 757s) will be kept around longer than many expect.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:42 am

I see all three US legacy majors as very likely A321LR candidates.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
UA seems to be pretty committed to the 737 family for future use and the addition of an A321 variant subfleet would introduce operational challenges.

But UA also still has a substantial A320 fleet, and has the most 757s actually flying routes that the 737 MAX will never be able to fly. It is sticking with the secondary-European-airport strategy even after both AA and DL scaled it back considerably. I don't think UA will need 41 A320LRs to replace the pmCO 757-200s one for one, but I think an order for 25 to 30 would be the natural choice.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
AA seems like a likely candidate.

Agreed. I think there's a good possibility this plane was developed specifically to meet AA's PHX-Hawaii requirement, which will be a challenge for even a regular A321neo.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
DL is the wild card.
DL is already a fan of the A320/A321, having decided to retain 59 very old A320s for some years to come and recently signed on the dotted line for 30 A321ceos. They don't have as many missions as UA or AA where the A321LR is the natural fit, but they might find there are more candidates as they upgauge 763 routes to 789/359 in the early 2020s. And, domestically, they may want regular A321neos to replace 757s that will be cycling out in the early 2020s. The A321neo is such a flexible aircraft that, honestly, it would seem dumb not to order any.

[Edited 2014-10-27 21:43:12]
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:50 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 194):
This is really an irrelevant issue.

I'm not sure I'd dismiss it quite that readily. Being able to use the same code C gates as its siblings may be useful at many airports.
As you said, these big 200ft span widebodys are going to take up a lot of space..

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 194):
Going beyond a 118-foot span is inevitable for a replacement in the 757/767-2 class, more in the neighborhood of a 140-foot span to get the performance needed and expected

For what its worth, I'd like to see a 140ft span wing with folding tips a la 777X for that "plane that really does everything the 757 does".
But that's not the name of the game here.
Operators "expect" and "require" to make money. That's the performance they really need.
To repeat myself (again), nobody, but nobody, has come forward with the missions where the 321NEO LR will be physically unable to provide this

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 194):
Airfield performance for both the 739 and A321 suffers because they are trying to use the ADG-III span.

I'll have to apologise again.
When I look at the ACAP documents, there appears to be nothing too shabby about the A321's field performance.
Unlike the 739
.
The 116t 757 with P+W 2040 engines takes 7 500ft at sea level at ISA + 14 c
The 93.5t A321 with CFM's takes 8 500ft at sea level at ISA + 15c
The winglets will improve that performance by 3t of TOW for a given field length
i.e. an A321NEO will take about 8 000ft at sea level at ISA + 15c
The A321NEO LR gains 6% more thrust over the regular A321NEO yet is only 3.5% heavier at MTOW.
If anything, it's field performance will be better than the A321NEO.
I think it's a bit of a stretch to call a take-off performance within a few hundred feet of the 757's as "shabby".

Feel free to have a go at the 737-900ER though. That requires the neck end of 11 000ft under the same conditions.
If you want to describe something as "shabby".
It's absolutely not in the same league as the 757 or A321NEO

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 194):
Capacity and decent range at a cost of net payload and airfield performance. Its niche is smaller because of the later two issues.

It's a niche aircraft all right. Which is fine, because the 757 is too.
But not because of the reasons you cite.
It's niche because at any lower ranges the vanilla A321NEO will do just fine.

Field performance I've covered above.
Again, show me the examples where an extra 500ft or so of TO roll makes the difference

As for payload, the only issue the A321NEO LR will have is fitting it in.
It will physically be able to lift a similar tonnage to the 757 a similar distance.
The ironic thing is, that for long and thin, the A321NEO LR will be more suited, as it's fuel limit range is higher than the 757's, and it burns less fuel.
The 757 P+W hits a wall at 3 800Nm (the RR plane's not even in it here, hitting the wall at 3 500Nm) when it can no longer tank more fuel.
The A321NEO LR won't hit that point until 3 900 - 4 000Nm.

Beyond the "wall" the planes will have to reduce TOW, and hence payload, with full tanks.
Beyond even this 3 900- 4 000nm the A321NEO LR wins even more, as it travels 30% further on each tonne of fuel.

But I accept that this is really a niche. As you said  

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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:28 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 4):
Its a gas tank instead of cargo capacity and a thrust bump to an already defined aircraft, not a new frame. People should be less parochial about it and call it (accept it for) what it is. You're right, it is getting tedious.

You seem to be implying this as a negative thing when it's actually the A321NLR's greatest advantage.

It has no development costs for Airbus, with all the key changes being covered in the standard NEO certification, and it parts comparable with both the original A321 and it's NEO variant making maintenance for the operator much less complex and much less expensive. Something I suspect the airlines will pay particular attention too given all the 757's have reached or have past middle age, meaning maintenance is only going to get more complicated and more expensive. Especially on ETOPS frames.

Add in the fact that the extra tanks are removable; giving an airline the flexibility to swap it from low density long range, to high density short range at a moments notice. And finally it's predicted to have at least a 25% lower operating costs! (perhaps even as high as 30%) - I just cannot see any "downside" or negative for this variant.

As has been asked of yourself, and a couple of other nay sayers; perhaps you could list the routes currently operated by the 75W that would either be technically impossible or financially infeasible with the A321NLR? and then you may have the basis of a point, but in the mean time the only reason I can conclude for anyone simply saying "it will never replace the 757" or "It's only able to operate 99.99995% of 757 missions, what about the 500KG of cod in Iceland" is fanboyism.

[Edited 2014-10-28 04:39:57]
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting tayser (Reply 2):

The type of range talked about might be useful to carriers like Jetstar...

Good point. Those are some very viable routes.

Quoting tayser (Reply 3):
The, on paper, range limit ex MEL:

You just posted a nice case for a range extension for those routes are a stretch. 3,600nm is the limit in the real world.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 7):
And other paid-for "war horses" (like the 757s) will be kept around longer than many expect.

If oil does drop that much (which we've disagreed before in the past), global economic growth will be so fast that the old warhorses will have to be kept around as new aircraft production won't be fast enough for the demand! But the 757 is entering its very high maintenance cost period of its life. Its not just fuel pushing those airframes out of the fleet. But it would extend their lives.

In that scenario we would see the 757 and A321NEOLR flying together side by side for a longer period of time.

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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:17 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
You just posted a nice case for a range extension for those routes are a stretch. 3,600nm is the limit in the real world.

Even that I find unrealistic, real airway routes can add 5% to great circle distances, wind, alternates, airframe/engine degrading over time, 3000 nm would be a realistic max distance for me.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:35 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 10):

I'm not a naysayer. I'm simply pointing out that this is not a 757 replacement. Its an A321. People, including Airbus, are making more out of this than it is. A 757 replacement will do all this plane can do with close to 200 pax and carry more than just bags in the belly.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 9):

For the 97 ton NEOLR the runway length is closer to 9,000 feet hot day, so not it's not all that great in terms of airfield performance and the second segment climb isn't all that great either. It's not all about thrust to weight ratios. You need a better wing if you want to see a major shift in airfield performance.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:48 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 13):

I'm not a naysayer. I'm simply pointing out that this is not a 757 replacement. Its an A321. People, including Airbus, are making more out of this than it is. A 757 replacement will do all this plane can do with close to 200 pax and carry more than just bags in the belly.

Please tell me which routes over 3000 nm the 757 is currently used on, then we can discuss capability on the real world situations. In the previous thread it got derailed as a poster claimed the 757 was taking massive amounts of cargo on the kef-sea route, when it turns it the actual number was 600 kg on a 183 seat 752.

Please tell us all about these long routes with close to 200 pax and more than just bags in the belly.

I believe Airbus had said in the original post that started this series of threads that they only saw a a demand of 40 aircraft with roles that only the 757 could fulfill. Maybe the best solution for this small group of roles is to continue to operate the 757 until the demand requires either up-scaling to the 788 or downgrading to the A321neo rather than a design that is not optium for the majority (i.e. the other 1000 757s) roles.

[Edited 2014-10-28 04:58:48]
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:57 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 14):

Nice derailment.

By the way, a replacement aircraft offers a new capability generally coupled with a capacity increase to meet the long terms needs of the industry. What new capability or capacity increase is provided here? Answer: none.

[Edited 2014-10-28 04:59:03]
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:59 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 13):
I'm not a naysayer. I'm simply pointing out that this is not a 757 replacement. Its an A321. People, including Airbus, are making more out of this than it is. A 757 replacement will do all this plane can do with close to 200 pax and carry more than just bags in the belly.

This reminds me so much of a "god of the gaps" argument.

Can you name a route which the A321NLR cannot operate but a 757 can? And as has been pointed out in previous threads it is speculated (remember none of this information is official) that it will be able to carry a limited amount of cargo similar to the 757.

But the point I think you seem to be missing is that although on paper you may be able to find a mission that only the 757 would be able to accomplish no airline operates it, making it irrelevant. What the Airbus is doing is replacing the 757 in practical terms, where its full range is not needed one of the tanks can be removed and more freight loaded - matching the capability of the 757.

Like it or not, there is no Boeing aircraft that even comes close to having the capability's of the Airbus, and with it offering a vast improvement in fuel efficiency I expect airlines will be scrambling to replace the 757s ASAP.
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:59 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 15):

You made the claims of fact, back them up as per the forum rules.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:01 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 16):

You guys are obsessed with "what flights can't it do" argument.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:02 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 1):

I have to agree the discussions about Icelandic fish got rather childish and tiring.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:03 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):

Their 737max can reach here anyway. I think a smaller plane would be better for the likes of Belfast anyway as it would mean year round.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:05 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 14):

Well the 757 is used on routes to LHR, CDG, TXL and OSL which are all over 3,000nm from EWR. Only one that requires stop overs is the Oslo and Berlin one.
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:07 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 13):
I'm not a naysayer. I'm simply pointing out that this is not a 757 replacement. Its an A321. People, including Airbus, are making more out of this than it is.

It is the nearest thing to a B757 you are going to see for quite some years. Whilst we can argue the semantics of the meaning of the word replacement, shall we instead refer to the A321neoLR as the modern day, fuel efficient alternative..?

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 15):
By the way, a replacement aircraft offers a new capability generally coupled with a capacity increase to meet the long terms needs of the industry. What new capability or capacity increase is provided here? Answer: none.

By your argument, the B748 should be flying off the shelves; it ain't.

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 18):
You guys are obsessed with "what flights can't it do" argument.

I humbly suggest it is actually you who is obsessed with the flights this variant can't do; after all, that IS why you're saying it's no B757 replacement, isn't it..?

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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:11 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 21):

Some people can't see the forest for the trees. They ignore this massive gap in capacity between the new generation widebody and narrowbody fleets then pretend this is some kind of solution. It's as entertaining as the the fish argument in the last thread. Maybe when airlines are screaming about delays in five to ten years because of too many 737s and A320s they'll see the bigger picture. The industry is being lazy here.

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 22):

748 is the wrong capacity gap in need of being addressed, so no.

[Edited 2014-10-28 05:14:35]
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:12 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 18):
You guys are obsessed with "what flights can't it do" argument.

And you seem to be a bit obsessed with the definition of the word "replacement", now can we please let this subject rest?
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:22 pm

We had a bit of a discussion in the Australian Aviation Thread as to what potential routes the A321NEOLR could open up from Australian ports, having read through parts of the current thread, what is the general consensus re: the estimated real world operating range (i.e. fully loaded with bags/passengers, adequate diversion reserves etc ). Is it the full 3800nm, 3500nm or 3000nm as noted above?
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:30 pm

As per the original thread starter:
http://leehamnews.com/2014/10/21/exc...lr-long-range-to-replace-757-200w/
Kiran Rao, EVP sales and marketing for Airbus, confirmed the new model today. He said the A321neoLR will have a range of 3,900nm, or about 100nm more than the operational range of the 757W. (Advertised range is 4,100nm.)

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 15):
What new capability or capacity increase is provided here? Answer: none.

100nm more range.
-25% reduction in cost per seat.
Fleet commonality

Sounds a little like the 747-400 being replaced by the 777-300ER. The 773ER was an enhancement of a previously existing platform, which sounds exactly like the A321NeoLR to me. New engines, wing modifications MTOW boost resulting in more range, reduced costs and fleet commonality. Also, the 777-300ER and the 777-200LR both got shot down by some ANutters soon after EIS due to their poor runway performance versus the A340-500/600. JNB (instead of Iceland) was obsessed among enthusiasts with the 777 being weight limited due to hot+high and max tyre speed.

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 15):
generally coupled with a capacity increase

"Generally", meaning "not necessarily".  
Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 25):
Is it the full 3800nm, 3500nm or 3000nm as noted above?

Approx 3600nm. An unoptimized 757 (RR Engines) does 3400nm today.

[Edited 2014-10-28 05:38:13]
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:32 pm

Quoting Boeing 717200 (Reply 13):
I'm not a naysayer. I'm simply pointing out that this is not a 757 replacement. Its an A321. People, including Airbus, are making more out of this than it is. A 757 replacement will do all this plane can do with close to 200 pax and carry more than just bags in the belly

Please let me apologise for dragging this out some more, Boeing717200, but the issue I see here is that this is a definition of a replacement for the 757 that you have created in your own mind.
And I sort of get it.
I keep finding myself using the term "real replacement", by which I mean an aircraft that fits your description of "everything the 757 can do, and then some, more cheaply".

The truth though is that that is not really the "real replacement". That the "enthusiasts replacement" that we all want to see replace the 757 in our hearts.
The "real replacement" surely is the aircraft (or more realistically, suite of aircraft) that are ACTUALLY replacing 757's now, or will do so in future, in the market.
By definition. As these will be the planes that have replaced the 757 in airlines fleets.

The 737NG and latter-day A32X's have already made inroads into the 757's numbers and deployment.
The 737MAX and A32X NEO will move that process on a lot further.
I think we'll find that the A321NEO LR will just about finish the job off, as the tiny number of 757 missions that aren't covered by the aircraft I've mentioned just won't justify the extra 30% of the cost required to keep them.

I don't think Airbus are making too much out of it for that reason.
That you think they are is a function of the definition that you have imposed, which is a technical one, not a market driven one.

Will the A321NEO LR ever engender the same affection in our hearts as the 757?
clearly not. By definition.
It IS "just another A321"

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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:36 pm

Quoting Pacific (Reply 26):

I get it, so Airbus says so. Well that settles it.

I'll bet you think a fully loaded A350 can fly 8000 miles.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 25):

Probably about 3400-3500 with winds and a payload tweak for hot days.

[Edited 2014-10-28 05:38:49]
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:45 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 27):

I've made so such "creation" in my mind. Airlines asked for a replacement and to this day the manufacturers aren't doing it. This is really no different than Boeing with the 200 seat 738 flying torture device.

Industrial laziness at its finest.

The only thing I'd like to see is the industry be bold with the narrowbody sub 240 seat market. Instead they punt and call it a solution when it isn't. Apologies for my lack of enthusiasm. I suppose working in this industry vs. being an enthusiast makes me a little jaded. I'll be damned if I go straight to homerville over a gas tank and a thrust bump, or in the case of Boeing 200 seats at 28" pitch.

[Edited 2014-10-28 05:48:24]
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:48 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 28):

What is the 757? That would probably get us a flight from here to Florida, Atlanta and even western Canada.

[Edited 2014-10-28 05:49:54]
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Pacific
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:49 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 28):
I'll bet you think a fully loaded 787 can fly 8000 miles.

You never fail to amuse me.

A fully loaded (MZFW) A321NLR is likely to have an advertised range of 2,500nm. Unload all the freight (including fish) and this range goes up to 3,900nm. In the real world, max practical range should be approx 3,600nm.

And by your logic, the 777-300ER was built in a very lazy fashion.

[Edited 2014-10-28 05:50:44]
 
airbazar
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:07 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
For me, I wonder which current 752 operator will be interested.

AA is a no brainer. US has been asking for this for years and given that the guy in charge of US is now in charge of the combined US/AA, I'd say it's more than likely that US will be one.

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 13):
I'm not a naysayer. I'm simply pointing out that this is not a 757 replacement. Its an A321. People, including Airbus, are making more out of this than it is. A 757 replacement will do all this plane can do with close to 200 pax and carry more than just bags in the belly.

Name one such route? This is an A321 alright, the one that killed the 757 production line, and it's about to replace all that is left of the 757. Except this A321 is much improved from the one launched a few decades ago. It will happen, whether you agree with it or not.

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 18):
You guys are obsessed with "what flights can't it do" argument.

Seems logical. You keep saying it's not a replacement. For that to be true, there has to be at least a route or two which the A321 can't do.

Quoting frostyj (Reply 21):
Well the 757 is used on routes to LHR, CDG, TXL and OSL which are all over 3,000nm from EWR. Only one that requires stop overs is the Oslo and Berlin one.

And which of those routes do you see a 757 with 200 seats?
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:17 pm

Quoting Pacific (Reply 26):
100nm more range.
-25% reduction in cost per seat.
Fleet commonality

But, but, but... it's not a real 757 replacement!   

The airlines buying A321s (both ceo and neo) by the dozens don't seem to care it's not a 757. Indeed, to the end of September, the A321 had racked up total sales of 2,250 and its proportion of sales in the A320 family is growing rapidly.   

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 28):
I'll bet you think a fully loaded A350 can fly 8000 miles.

Why? Airbus doesn't say it can.
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speedbored
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:43 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 29):
Airlines asked for a replacement and to this day the manufacturers aren't doing it

Have you actually seen the details of specifically what the airlines have been asking for? I'm sure you will find it is very far removed from your idea of what constitutes a 757 "replacement".

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 29):
Industrial laziness at its finest.

Or maybe it is really "commercial good sense at its finest". The manufacturers are not charities. They do not exist purely to make every aircraft that any airline requests. They have one single purpose, namely to make money for their shareholders. They will not make money by building an all new large narrowbody to fill a 10-20 frame (at best) niche.

Recent deliveries, and current orders, prove that the airlines already see various 737 and 320 models as perfectly acceptable replacements for the majority of their 757s. The 321NeoLR will cover some of the remaining replacements, leaving a vanishingly small number of routes for which airlines will be forced to either continue using their 757s, upgrade to a small widebody, or drop the route entirely.
 
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Ab345
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:49 pm

I cannot for the life of me understand how the 757 got the "sacred cow" status all of a sudden and the A321 should not even be mentioned in the same sentence  Wow!  Wow!  Wow!  
 
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par13del
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:57 pm

What I find more interesting is the evolution of the A321 into the upper limits of the 757 capabilities which were deliberately excluded in the design to make a more efficient frame.
Modern technology means that in-spite of putting in a lot of those capabilities - starting with the A321-200 - the a/c still maintains its efficiency over the 757.

I guess for the 757 fans it sticks in the craw that the only enhancements Boeing enacted was the -300 versus looking at reducing weight and more efficient engines.

On the other hand, the a/c will re-ignite the debate of whether there is a gap between the n/b and w/b frames that requires filling.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:00 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 36):
On the other hand, the a/c will re-ignite the debate of whether there is a gap between the n/b and w/b frames that requires filling.

And, as always, the answer will be that there is no way to make a "tweener" as efficient as a frame with either the cross section of the A320 on the one hand or the 787 on the other. The 787 cross section has already been taken as far down in length as could possibly make sense with the 787-8. So any airplanes filling the gap will be longer narrowbodies. And I expect Boeing to make one, probably sized for 250 passengers in a single-class LCC configuration, at some point in the next ten years as part of its new narrowbody family.
 
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:24 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 21):

The longest of those is ewr-txl which is served with a 752 with 169 seats, a A321 doing the same route would be configured with fewer seats to match the product.

According to http://www.statista.com/statistics/2...ctor-plf-on-international-flights/ the average load factor USA to Europe recently was 80.3%, that means on average you would expect around 135 seats used on that flight.

That is the reality, not close to 200 seats plus freight, that is a 767/787 run.
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BlueShamu330s
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:32 pm

Quoting Ab345 (Reply 35):

I cannot for the life of me understand how the 757 got the "sacred cow" status all of a sudden and the A321 should not even be mentioned in the same sentence

Probably because it's an Airbus.

Quoting par13del (Reply 36):
Modern technology means that in-spite of putting in a lot of those capabilities - starting with the A321-200 - the a/c still maintains its efficiency over the 757.

Absolutely. What fanboys see as the A321's weaknesses, airlines regard as its strengths.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 38):
That is the reality, not close to 200 seats plus freight, that is a 767/787 run.

  

People forget United is ploughing the EWR-LHR milk run with the trusty ole B757. The neoLR will be absolutely ideal for the USA to Europe, from the busiest of hub airports down.

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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:53 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 34):
The 321NeoLR will cover some of the remaining replacements, leaving a vanishingly small number of routes for which airlines will be forced to either continue using their 757s, upgrade to a small widebody, or drop the route entirely.

Or just block some seats on their new A321NLR. With 4 tons worth of empty seats the gap will be nil, and operating costs per pax will still be the same as with a full 757W.

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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:01 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 39):
People forget United is ploughing the EWR-LHR milk run with the trusty ole B757. The neoLR will be absolutely ideal for the USA to Europe, from the busiest of hub airports down.

   It will fragment and provide frequency for that market nicely. In particular as the airports are near sea level with long runways.   

But also for Jetstar as noted early in this thread.

If the ME3 do not take advantage of the type, I will be shocked.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 34):
Have you actually seen the details of specifically what the airlines have been asking for? I'm sure you will find it is very far removed from your idea of what constitutes a 757 "replacement".

   US has been asking for a much lower cost per flight TATL aircraft for 15+ years. They now have it.

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frostyj
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:03 pm

Does this mean prices will be reduced??
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:04 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6):
For me, I wonder which current 752 operator will be interested. UA seems to be pretty committed to the 737 family for future use and the addition of an A321 variant subfleet would introduce operational challenges. AA seems like a likely candidate. DL is the wild card.

For UA, because they've already had 20 years of experience with the A319 and A320, I'm sure it wouldn't be much a problem. I love the 737 very much, and it's a great plane for UA, but I'm convinced they might be giving too much of the network to the 737, when what may be really needed is something else as well. AA is also a good candidate. 757s that need to be replaced, A321 on order, seems like a good opportunity. DL could, but they're sketchy as usual.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 8):
But UA also still has a substantial A320 fleet, and has the most 757s actually flying routes that the 737 MAX will never be able to fly. It is sticking with the secondary-European-airport strategy even after both AA and DL scaled it back considerably. I don't think UA will need 41 A320LRs to replace the pmCO 757-200s one for one, but I think an order for 25 to 30 would be the natural choice.

The 737 MAX would be good replacements for the aging A319/20s. In addition to that, at least part of the 737 MAX 9 order should be converted to 8s.

While the MAX 9 would be a good aircraft for domestic usage and maybe Central American segments, it is obviously wouldn't fair well in the TATL setting. UA has a rather large fleet of 737-900ERs as well, which will total 135 when the order is filled. The A321neoLR could serve as a Premium UA aircraft, flying on P.S. and current 757 Int'l routes. An order for 30/40 would be healthy. Maybe up to 50.

[Edited 2014-10-28 08:23:17]
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tommy1808
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 42):
Does this mean prices will be reduced??

only if competition forces them too...

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Thomas
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:08 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
US has been asking for a much lower cost per flight TATL aircraft for 15+ years. They now have it.

  .

Now they only have to order it when the aircraft is officially cleared by the board of Airbus to be offered to the potential customers.  
 
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speedbored
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:46 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 45):
Now they only have to order it when the aircraft is officially cleared by the board of Airbus to be offered to the potential customers.

Will it actually need board approval? Airbus have been offering optional extra fuel tanks in the hold for A320 family aircraft for years. Is this not just an A321Neo with the addition of existing optional extras, i.e. mostly just a paperwork exercise?
 
tommy1808
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:48 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 46):
i.e. mostly just a paperwork exercise?

I would think the MTOW increase will need some work.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:59 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 47):
I would think the MTOW increase will need some work.

   A 4% MTOW increase is quite a bit. The MTOW increase is why it won't be possible to convert regular A321neos into A321LRs.
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Launches A321NEOLR To Replace 757 Part 3

Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:35 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 29):
I've made so such "creation" in my mind. Airlines asked for a replacement and to this day the manufacturers aren't doing it. This is really no different than Boeing with the 200 seat 738 flying torture device.

Industrial laziness at its finest.

The only thing I'd like to see is the industry be bold with the narrowbody sub 240 seat market. Instead they punt and call it a solution when it isn't. Apologies for my lack of enthusiasm. I suppose working in this industry vs. being an enthusiast makes me a little jaded. I'll be damned if I go straight to homerville over a gas tank and a thrust bump, or in the case of Boeing 200 seats at 28" pitch

Not sure where to go with all of this really......

Airlines may well have expressed a desire for a "new 757".
But they just haven't put their money where their mouth is, frankly.......
Boeing punted the NSA around for some time in 2009/2010 and most informed opinion was that one member of this family would be a "real 757 replacement".
The history lesson tells us what happened here..
Airbus launched the A320NEO and the narrowbody world turned upside down.
Airlines either flocked to the A320NEO or DEMANDED that Boeing respond immediately with a 737 upgrade.
They voted with their financial feet.

I'd draw your attention to this..

http://leehamnews.com/2014/10/28/bab...-conference-part-2-airbus-outlook/

and attendant A-net thread

Airbus Mobile Plant To Assemble A321s (by KarelXWB Oct 28 2014 in Civil Aviation)

In 3 1/2 years, Airbus have sold almost as many A321's as the 757 sold in it's entire 25 year sales lifetime from 1978 to 2003
The NEO has sold 2 500 A320's and 750 A321's for a list value of nearly $350Bn in that 3 1/2 years. Even at 50% discount that's $50Bn of business EVERY YEAR for an outlay of $2Bn tops.  Wow!

You label this as "industrial laziness".
To me that smacks of a plot being lost in this discussion.
To pursue a dedicated new build 757 replacement instead of the above opportunity would be tantamount to fiscal vandalism..
That's not laziness.
It's very, very sound business.

Yes. Airlines like Delta might vocally bemoan the absence of a "new 757".
But all the time they are voting with their wallets..
By the thousand ...

If enough airlines REALLY wanted a new 757 it would have happened by now.   
But it hasn't

I have to say, though, if we're busy blindsiding financial reality and only focussing on mission performance, then Airbus were absolutely right to launch the A380 as the 747 replacement. Agreed?     
No?
Why not?
Here's a thought..
An A380 can take off at about 475t TOW, at sea level and ISA + 15 deg on 6 500ft of runway, which is less runway than a 757 needs at 116t, and is more than plenty to carry a 25t payload well over 5 000Nm  
Maybe that's its true niche - as the REAL 757 replacement.
you heard it here first   
No?
Ah well ....

Quoting speedbored (Reply 46):
Is this not just an A321Neo with the addition of existing optional extras, i.e. mostly just a paperwork exercise?

There's clearly additional strengthening of some sort that has gone into the airframe that is not retro-fittable.

From the above Leeham article

Quote:
The A321neoLR brought to the market place just under two weeks ago and already have interest. There is a bit of wing strengthening, a bit of structural restrengthening

Rgds

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