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Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:20 am

If as is becoming increasingly likely the United Kingdom exits the European Union in the not too distant future what impact will it have on International Airlines Group ?
 
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PM
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:34 am

Quoting 1400mph (Thread starter):
If as is becoming increasingly likely the United Kingdom exits the European Union in the not too distant future

I think "likely" is far too strong. Cameron is playing a dangerous game badly but even he wants the UK to remain in the EU and in spite of the worst lies of the Daily Mail and UKIP I still believe that the majority of those who may vote in the referendum will see sense.

And if not, then those who vote to leave will get what they want and have to live with the consequences - which will be catastrophic.

IAG? I can't see the UK leaving the EU being anything other than disastrous for jobs, investment, business and confidence. It would therefore have a very negative impact on BA.

Would there be legal / contractual ramifications with IB still in the EU and BA outside? I don't know but I assume so.

Let's just say that IAG will be campaigning strongly for the UK to stay within the EU and there are very good reasons for that.

(For the record: ignore my flag - it's where I'm living - but I'm British.)
 
cedarjet
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:41 am

The UK isn’t leaving the EU. UKIP have the same number of supporters as the Green Party, and we’re not serious about reducing emissions either. If there was a referendum tomorrow, the vote would be to stay in. The chorus of idiots who are against the EU are a noisy minority, like the Tea Baggers in the US. Not representative of the sentiments of the population.

IAG would have one big earner in such a hypothetical scenario however — repatriating the million plus Brits who currently live in Spain.
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:47 am

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 2):
like the Tea Baggers in the US.

Do you mean the Tea Party? LOL.... I can care less which term you use, they are synonymous, IMO.         
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Richard28
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:48 am

it is I think quite likely the UK will leave the EU, but remain a part of the common trade area. As such, there would be little impact as far as trade is concerned. Certainly no impact on the IB relationship.., they are one company
... To suggest otherwise is scaremongering
 
dougbr2006
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:54 am

Quoting PM (Reply 1):
(For the record: ignore my flag - it's where I'm living - but I'm British.)

Nice to see you clarified rather than receive bad responses I had some backlash when I was anti Scotland Independence and I'm a Scott living in Brazil!!!

I agree that the majority of Brits probably won't want to leave Europe, but the EU is making some moves that would make any country consider leaving and that 1.7 billion bill was really out of the question so that a few others can contribute less. When they had high a economy why didn't they pay more at that time, anyway case closed on that issue.

IAG is an International company and if the UK did decide to leave I don't believe the implications would be that dire for them. Perhaps a little uncomfortable at first but people soon get back to reality.
 
Clydenairways
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:57 am

Even in the unlikely event of leaving the EU, i don't see much of a difference to IAG. The UK for sure will have an open skies policy, and trade with the EU will still be vitally important.
If there was a vote to leave, policies would be made to try and keep trade as free moving as possible.
At the moment the UK doesn't use the EU currency or allow borderless travel, so these will just continue as they are.
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:57 am

Really? I seriously doubt we will leave the EU.

I'd love to leave and join an economic union but this is not going to happen.
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PanHAM
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:57 am

Theya could stay in the European Common Aviation Zone like Iceland Norway and Switzerland which are no EU members as well. But that would require approval by the other members I suppose and is not for granted. However lea ving the club and keeping all the benefits takes 2, better takes the other 27 as well and I doubt that they will approve.

I am with PM, the result would be catastrophic for the UK
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frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:58 am

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 2):

I am an idiot because I want to leave an organisation that tries to implement ridiculous quotas and controls my country from a foreign land! Oh I wonder what you are for wanting to stay in such a daft organisation.
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:59 am

Quoting PM (Reply 1):

Again if we leave the EU and join a trade group the impact will not be catastrophic. The UK is a rich country we do not need to be or want to be in the EU, we can control ourselves.
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sabenapilot
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:01 am

its not just IAG which would suffer, but also for instance Easyjet: being a non-EU airline at that point, it would simply lose ALL access rights to any of the EU countries and basically have to close down completely (to the exception of it's Swiss subsidiary)
Same for ryanair: it's an Irish airline, but operating many flights from the UK to other European countries. All of those flights would no longer be internal market flights, so either party can refuse them, meaning that even if the UK allows ryanair to continue operating from the UK, Italy for instance or Spain, or France or any other EU country could now refuse these kind of flights.
And no Richard28, if you leave the EU, you do not become part of the common trade area. That is something which needs to be negociated again, and it is sufficient for 1 single country to block your entry or to set a very high price on it. How likely you think it is no other country is going to make the UK government 'pay' by stalling a few years, and asking loads of concessions. The UK out of the EU, is going to be a slave of the EU: Full compliance, no influence.
Enjoy the referendum, when it ever comes!  
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:02 am

Well if Norway can survive out of the EU why can we not?? We don't actually need to be part of the EU, its not needed.

To me the EU is only really good for poor countries like Romania.
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BestWestern
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:14 am

I hope if the UK leaves the EU and imposes immigration controls on Europeans that all those freeloading foreigner pensioners costing Spain a fortune are sent back to the UK.

Quoting frostyj (Reply 12):

Says the person from the region in the UK who has benefited dramatically from the European Union.

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 11):

Cameron is playing a stupid game. He is putting his future ahead of the country.
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Clydenairways
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:15 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 11):

its not just IAG which would suffer, but also for instance Easyjet: being a non-EU airline at that point, it would simply lose ALL access rights to any of the EU countries and basically have to close down completely (to the exception of it's Swiss subsidiary)
Same for ryanair: it's an Irish airline, but operating many flights from the UK to other European countries. All of those flights would no longer be internal market flights, so either party can refuse them, meaning that even if the UK allows ryanair to continue operating from the UK, Italy for instance or Spain, or France or any other EU country could now refuse these kind of flights.
And no Richard28, if you leave the EU, you do not become part of the common trade area. That is something which needs to be negociated again, and it is sufficient for 1 single country to block your entry or to set a very high price on it. How likely you think it is no other country is going to make the UK government 'pay' by stalling a few years, and asking loads of concessions. The UK out of the EU, is going to be a slave of the EU: Full compliance, no influence.
Enjoy the referendum, when it ever comes!

Don't think you are correct here. There are plenty of examples of this scenario happening already today.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:18 am

There's always reference to Norway and Switzerland, but let's try to look at the legal stuff: the UK became a full member of the EU without ever having signed up to a seperate free trade agreement first, so IF it were to pull out from the EU, it falls back to nothing.
As such, it's in the same category as for instance Serbia, not in the 'in between' category like Switzerland.
sure, it could try to negociate to upgrade to that kind of a country, but then it needs approval of the 27 EU memberstates, some of which will be pissed of by the UK exiting because it has costed them money and they may ask for financial compensations, whereas others may just feel the need to make the UK suffer a bit...
Relating back to aviation: if the UK leaves, it loses all access to the single market until the point in time it signs an open sky agreement with the EU. That can take years, and meanwhile to old bilaterals of the 1960s are back in force, meaning basically only BA would be allowed to serve any European country; byebye Ryanair from the UK, and byebye Easyjet all together even!
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:18 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 13):

The UK is only in the EU for the economic reasons though which is why I want to leave. The only people ranting about us leaving are people from countries in the EU that would have their immigration restricted. Which I think we have the right to do as there are too many immigrants claiming money that they haven't contributed to.

The British people who live in Spain contribute a lot as they actually buy houses there.

[Edited 2014-10-28 03:20:42]
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frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:20 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 15):

You keep saying that this will happen but then again I am inclined to think that it will affect the European mainland more than us as they are the ones heavily reliant on the airlines like Ryanair for cheap travel.
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:31 am

Quoting frostyj (Reply 16):
there are too many immigrants claiming money that they haven't contributed to

Myth, not fact.

Immigration strengthens the UK economy.

Quoting PM (Reply 1):
the worst lies of the Daily Mail and UKIP
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:33 am

But also brings issues like beggars from other countries that should be keeping their own problems.
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sabenapilot
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:37 am

Quoting frostyj (Reply 17):

It's what will automatically happen if the UK exits the EU, like the OP asks, it's simply the law being applied here.
Now, you can say that it will not come to this, as the UK will negotiate full market access, but whether or not that will be granted depends not just on the UK, but also on each of the 27 other EU memberstates.
Let's say that what I give as an outlook is a CERTAINTY today, whereas what you say will happen is a POSSIBILITY.
How big that is, is up to your own appreciation, but my take is it will take TIME, EFFORT, MONEY and a lot of MODESTY on the part of the UK to get it, because there's definitely no RIGHT whetsoever to any of what you claim, post an EU exit.

[Edited 2014-10-28 03:39:44]
 
TYCOON
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:45 am

If the UK leaves the EU, it would be catastrophic for BA as it would be catastrophic for the city of London. I think you would see the financial centre shift out of London to another EU city like Frankfurt. Banks have already told the government this and even the US has politely told the UK that that would be a stupid move.
London would just be so much more unattractive a global financial centre outside of the EU than inside of it... And financial services is one of the few industries in which the UK actually excels!
 
Clydenairways
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:47 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 15):
That can take years, and meanwhile to old bilaterals of the 1960s are back in force, meaning basically only BA would be allowed to serve any European country; byebye Ryanair from the UK, and byebye Easyjet all together even!

You don't know what it happen because it hasn't been tested before by a state leaving. There is no way that theory would happen in practice, it would not be in the EU's interest.
The UK leaving would be a massive shock to the EU, they will not want to make it any worse by refusing to agree temporary trade rules.

There will be some kind of temporary legislation drafted to cover the transition period.
 
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:53 am

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 6):
Even in the unlikely event of leaving the EU, i don't see much of a difference to IAG. The UK for sure will have an open skies policy, and trade with the EU will still be vitally important.
If there was a vote to leave, policies would be made to try and keep trade as free moving as possible.
At the moment the UK doesn't use the EU currency or allow borderless travel, so these will just continue as they are.


I agree. . There is no reason why the UK could not keep various agreements in place similar to what the Swiss have.
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:56 am

Quoting TYCOON (Reply 21):

Its not catastrophic if we join an european economic union.
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Clydenairways
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:57 am

[quote=TYCOON,reply=21]
If the UK leaves the EU, it would be catastrophic for BA as it would be catastrophic for the city of London. I think you would see the financial centre shift out of London to another EU city like Frankfurt. Banks have already told the government this and even the US has politely told the UK that that would be a stupid move.
London would just be so much more unattractive a global financial centre outside of the EU than inside of it... And financial services is one of the few industries in which the UK actually excels![/quo.

I think a lot of is just talk and blown out of proportion. There will be some change but London will still be a Financial city.
Hopefully Dublin would pick up some financial service crumbs  
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:57 am

As said: it could be, it could be not.
Fact is the rules today are not in the UKs favour, and there may be some countries which will want to make the UK "pay", so I wouldn't count on a perfectly smooth transition in which the UK conveniently gets to keep all what it wants, yet no longer has to accept what it doesn't want. A lesson to others will have to be given too, somehow, so better factor this in.
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:00 am

But then its not the mainland EU's favour either is it? The UK is an important figure or country in the European Union so if it leaves they will have to make adjustments so that it doesn't go bad for them.
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sabenapilot
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:06 am

For whom on the mainland?
Don't know if the French government is going to be very willing to help the UK out by granting Easyjet full access once again, if you follow the news a bit on AF-KL today, for instance....
Just saying that it's naive to assume the UK will get all it wants from the EU after first walking out, so the airlines like Easyjet etc better prepare their next step carefully as things may turn nasty for them.
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:10 am

Well then they will sink themselves.
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Clydenairways
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:13 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 26):
As said: it could be, it could be not.
Fact is the rules today are not in the UKs favour, and there may be some countries which will want to make the UK "pay", so I wouldn't count on a perfectly smooth transition in which the UK conveniently gets to keep all what it wants, yet no longer has to accept what it doesn't want. A lesson to others will have to be given too, somehow, so better factor this in.

I know you would like to think the EU would like to punish the UK for leaving, but reality will dictate policy and they will have to allow freedom of trade to continue unrestricted.
Of course for optics, there may be some token restrictions put in place to try and give public appearance of punishment for leaving, but all the important trade rules will be facilitated.
 
Pihero
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:13 am

To answer the OP question :
The first impact will be that BA cannot have more than 45 % of IB shares...
What it will bring to IAG is anybody's guess.

Then EasyJet will be restricted as a non-EU airline, leaving the field to the likes of Vueling and... Transavia !.. unless they establish themselves as a national company of another EU country like Poland... for instance.

Flights between the UK and the EU will no more be *intra- EU*, with a lot of collateral damage to FR, EK...

On the other hand, BA will be free to implement, without any opposition, whatever social and economical policy they chose. Could well be in their benefit, but without the open EU market to back them up... The situation will be about " back to the colonial past ", with a route structure based on transatlantic and former colonies traffic.

If that is the case, I personally do not see London still being the main banking centre of Europe, which means loss of business...

All in all, it looks very much like a losing proposition the Brits have to decide on.

And it's their call, not anybody else.

AS for the "various agreements some are talking about, they certainly are not a given... Not when such decisions would have to be made on an unanimous vote of the different EU countries.
It's certainly doesn't look like a free ride will be given to the UK.
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frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:15 am

But can the mainland europeans not understand that we don't actually need the EU for non-economic reasons?
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Clydenairways
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:24 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 31):
Then EasyJet will be restricted as a non-EU airline, leaving the field to the likes of Vueling and... Transavia !.. unless they establish themselves as a national company of another EU country like Poland... for instance.

Ok, explain to me why Norwegian, an airline from a country not in the EU, can operate a route such as Alicante EU to Cologne-Bonn EU, and why Easyjet could not do the same ?
 
slinky09
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:44 am

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 33):
Ok, explain to me why Norwegian, an airline from a country not in the EU, can operate a route such as Alicante EU to Cologne-Bonn EU, and why Easyjet could not do the same ?

Because Norway is a member of the European Free Trade Association, as are Lichtenstein, Switzerland, and Iceland. Membership of the EFTA brings many of the benefits of EU membership (including open skies), and also requires states to abide by many EU laws. For the UK to leave the EU and yet retain some of the benefits of free trade would require us to negotiate membership of EFTA. Thus leaving the EU would immediately create major business issues for the likes of IAG and EasyJet because agreement around the UK's membership of EFTA would take quite some time. Ergo, leaving the EU would be a disaster for the UK economy not just related to aviation, but all sectors and the anti-EU loudmouths don't have any answers to this. As people have stated, any one state in the EU could hold up the UK's EFTA membership indefinitely.

However, since a large majority of the British people do not want to leave the EU and have said they would vote to stay in any referendum, hopefully leaving is not a likely event.
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:52 am

You don't know what the population's opinion is.

Don't dare state that that the population want the EU as FACT because you do NOT know.
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1400mph
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:06 pm

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 34):
However, since a large majority of the British people do not want to leave the EU and have said they would vote to stay in any referendum, hopefully leaving is not a likely event.

I think the majority want to stay in but only if there is a renegotiation of terms.

I personally want us to stay in for the sole reason that I find UKIP's presence in Brussels immensely entertaining. With them and the Tories together polling 49% of the vote we will probably get a referendum.

Anyway that aside.....I was just interested in the working relationship between IB and BA should we exit.
 
ThomasCook
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:08 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 19):
But also brings issues like beggars from other countries that should be keeping their own problems.

You need to do some serious research on the EU and how it benefits the UK. First and foremost, lets clear up the topic of immigration/migration. 2/3 of migrants to the UK are from outside the EU. An EU citizen doesn't have the ability to simply rock up here and sign up for benefits. They have to pass a Habitual Residence test followed by a Right to Reside test. EU nationals represent only 2.1% of working age benefit claimants in the UK. The last report I read stated that EU nationals are making a £17bn positive contribution to the UK economy.

It's time to expel the myth that the majority of EU migrants in the UK are from Eastern Europe. They make up a piece of the pie, but consider this; the French consulate in London estimates that there are 300,000-400,000 French citizens living in London alone. Put in to perspective, there are an estimated 800,000 CEE citizens in the UK. There are 1.8m UK citizens living in the EU.

Were you have come up with a statement along the lines of 'the EU is only really good for poor countries like Romania' is baffling. I imagine it is more UKIP propaganda or backbench Tory spin. In the £140bn manufacturing sector alone, the UK generates £100bn of its revenues from the EU. 15% of the EUs £11bn innovation budget is spent in the UK. Three quarters of our annual food and drink exports worth £9.5bn are made to the EU - next after that is the USA on £500m. Four out of every ten UK made vehicles are shipped to the EU. I could go on.

The EU is not perfect, there is plenty of room for reform, but then again, there is in any organisation. The Tories are pandering to UKIP and UKIP are spinning lies. This all just smacks of a typical British attitude, 'we want it all our way'.

I am a UK citizen born and bread, I am proud to be in the EU and proud of the benefits it avails me. It may be of interest to some to discover that a survey by Ipsos MORI found last week that support for staying in the EU is at a 21 year high. Furthermore, the only party offering a referendum are the Tories providing they win a majority which simply put, isn't going to happen.

Thanks
 
Summa767
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:12 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 31):
All in all, it looks very much like a losing proposition the Brits have to decide on

I agree. However, I do hope that as part of the devolution of powers to Scotland, it includes its own right to remain in the EU, even if England or the rest of the UK vote to exit. Constitutionally complicated, I grant. Moreover, another referendum for independence should be had -but that time there would be no question of EU membership.
If that were the case, perhaps Easyjet can have a subsidiary north of the border..
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:16 pm

The Scottish question has been put away.
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:31 pm

Quoting ThomasCook (Reply 37):

Well with 50% of the electorate voting Conservative or UKIP a referendum will be the very least on offer. Unless UKIP form a coalition with the Labour Party. Which simply put, isn't going to happen.

People in the USA won't stop flying with BA anymore than I won't stop buying V.W's should we exit. That principle applies across the board.
 
Clydenairways
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:35 pm

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 34):
Because Norway is a member of the European Free Trade Association, as are Lichtenstein, Switzerland, and Iceland. Membership of the EFTA brings many of the benefits of EU membership (including open skies), and also requires states to abide by many EU laws. For the UK to leave the EU and yet retain some of the benefits of free trade would require us to negotiate membership of EFTA. Thus leaving the EU would immediately create major business issues for the likes of IAG and EasyJet because agreement around the UK's membership of EFTA would take quite some time. Ergo, leaving the EU would be a disaster for the UK economy not just related to aviation, but all sectors and the anti-EU loudmouths don't have any answers to this. As people have stated, any one state in the EU could hold up the UK's EFTA membership indefinitely.

I actually knew that... I was just posing the question.

In theory what you say is correct, it reality there WILL be a transition agreement.
The reason:
The EU will be in crisis if a country such as large and economically important as the UK leaves, there will just not be time to waste in delaying signing temporary agreements.
Of course there will be some EU politicians and governments making statements about punishing and insisting the UK start from scratch in applying for EFTA membership. But in the midst of the crisis unfolding they will have no option but to facilitate it in order to try and stabilize the crisis as much as possible.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:37 pm

Quoting 1400mph (Reply 36):
I think the majority want to stay in but only if there is a renegotiation of terms.

Fully agreed - we should get rid of the membership bonus the UK is having since the Thatcher times - full member, full pay.

Quoting frostyj (Reply 39):
The Scottish question has been put away.

For the time being - yes. Long term - no. With a population so much devided on an approx 60/40 vote you´ll see this question coming up in a couple of years again.

Back to topic (my opinion)

In case the UK leaves the EU for good and no direct follow-on legislation - eg. joining EFTA - is agreed on there are hard times coming up for IAG. The ownership of Iberia needs to be reduced, which will one way or the other lead to reduced business from that end. Many traffic rights will need to be re-negotiated, and I don´t see it as a given that Open Skies will be implemented right away.

Furthermore it will certainly bring in some trouble in air way coordination (e.g. EU Single Sky Initiative) etc, which will mostly affect the cost side of things, especially in the London area.

Overall it won´t be fun for IAG and will cause serious issues.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,...
 
frostyj
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:38 pm

They have threatened us before and they have always ended up being the ones with sour apples. Not us.
[url=http://m.maploco.com/details/5f34zxvq][img]http://www.maploco.com/vmap/s/8395334.png[/img][/url]
 
1400mph
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:55 pm

I for one am baffled by my anti-ness. I am European after all. I adore France...Paris, the Riviera etc. I grew up travelling between east and west Germany and was always amazed at how different East and West Berlin were. Checkpoint Charlie was an experience.....they practically took our car apart once. I admire German manufacturing. Where would I be without my Bosch dishwasher I ask myself ? My 30's wouldn't have been half as much fun without my 330i Convertible !!

I'm not a bigot....I don't have a problem with immigration.

Sometimes though things happen like this 2 billion Euro's saga and it just makes a lot of people very angry. Me included. We can't afford to just hand over that sort of money almost overnight. Many feel like they are being blackmailed.

The whole set up just needs to be run better and with more adaption to the times we live in.
 
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BaconButty
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:59 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 42):
For the time being - yes. Long term - no. With a population so much devided on an approx 60/40 vote you´ll see this question coming up in a couple of years again.

55/45 with the age splits meaning that, if nothing drastically changes, Scottish independence is a certainty in a generation. I don't think the London political classes get how serious this stuff is - when you can go round English cities and hear slogans along the lines of "Scouse not English".
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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larshjort
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:00 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 35):
You don't know what the population's opinion is. Don't dare state that that the population want the EU as FACT because you do NOT know.

We know what the polls are saying

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propose...bership_of_the_European_Union#2014

The latest results are as follows:

with negotiation prior to leaving
Stay:55%
Leave:24%

without prior negotiations with EU:
Stay 40%
Leave: 39%

If you look at the history of the polls more and more want to stay in EU.

/Lars
139, 306, 319, 320, 321, 332, 34A, AN2, AT4, AT5, AT7, 733, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 146, AR1, BH2, CN1, CR2, DH1, DH3, DH4,
 
aviationaware
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:08 pm

If the UK leaves the EU, it will not be overnight. This is what the pro-EU liars are not telling you. The exit will only happen after all important treaties have been re-negotiated, and there is not the slightest advantage for anyone involved in keeping the UK out of the important EU treaties that formed the base for the EU so long ago.
Even in case of an exit, the UK would remain part of the common market - guaranteed, as it is in the best interest of all European countries including the UK. Implications for air travel would likely be very limited to non-existent - there are already differences between the UK and continental Europe concerning air travel, and they are extremely unlikely to grow in case of an exit.

I sincerely hope you will vote for an exit.
 
1400mph
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:24 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 45):

Any country deserves to govern itself even if it means the loss of something 'universally' more precious. That's the unavoidable sad part. If I were Scottish I would have voted YES even though as an Englishman I wanted them to stay.

Quoting larshjort (Reply 46):

It will be continental Europe that indirectly decides on whether the U.K stays or leaves by how it conducts itself and whether it fixes its economic woes. The British are not unreasonable nor are we prone to cutting off our nose to spite our face 'should' that be the outcome of an exit.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Implications For IAG After UK Exit From EU?

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:38 pm

Can we stick to topic please?
It's a given that post any pro exit vote, the negotiations to rejoin under a free trade agreement will be very though.
Remember that at that point, there are no longer any general common market principles governing these negotiations like the automatic right to full market access, it will just be mutual bests interests between the UK and the EU which will decide which elements will be allowed, and which won't.
Especially when it comes to aviation, the UK has massively taken advantage of the possibilities offered by the EU through airlines like for instance Easyjet, much to the frustration of some other EU governments and their state owned airlines.
It's very likely that quite a few of them will be pushed hard by their political parties and unions back home to impose much stricter rules to airlines like BA, Easyjet and others as a simple way to protect their own airlines and the thousands of jobs they support, and the EU will no longer be there to stop them from doing so, because the UK has just left, remember?
Looking at aviation, leaving the EU will be a disaster, and I am sure that UK airlines will be amongst the front runners of any NO campaign for obvious reasons.
I tell you, Easyjet is toast the day the UK decides to leave, because there will be quite a few national government putting the national interest and their stake in their national carriers first.

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