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Miami
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Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:50 am

Air India is planning on leasing either the A320neo or the 737 MAX for Air India Express.

Quote:
Indian media reports state with the A320neo set to make its commercial debut during the second half of next year, so Air India has commissioned studies about the possible induction of the type into its subsidiary's fleet by 2017.

Air India is strongly considering the 737 MAX but it is scheduled to be in operation by 2017

http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/ne...0neob737-max-for-air-india-express

What do you think will be the winner? I'd go with A320neo.


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scbriml
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:03 am

You would expect MAX to be favoured given their current fleet, but if they're serious about receiving planes 'by 2017', neo would seem to be the only option. It's interesting that there are a lot more neos on order by leasing companies than MAX.
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BestWestern
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:08 am

To be delivered in 2017 and parted out in 2018?
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Miami
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:14 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 1):
You would expect MAX to be favoured given their current fleet

True.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 1):
if they're serious about receiving planes 'by 2017', neo would seem to be the only option

  

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 2):
To be delivered in 2017 and parted out in 2018?

  
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
atal17
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:37 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 2):

Unlike AI, IX is better managed. Set to post it's first profit after the merger of AI and erstwhile-IC. Interesting how good news about AI (or IX) barely reaches the ears of AI.net

OTOH, AI does badly need new A320s. Those double bogeys are causing a lot of headaches.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:54 am

Quoting atal17 (Reply 4):
OTOH, AI does badly need new A320s.

Short term they want to lease from China.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 2):
To be delivered in 2017 and parted out in 2018?

Not sure which technology they are planning to use to produce parts. Mating ALH & ALG or cloning ANI. ALH producing quality parts than ANI.

[Edited 2014-10-28 04:50:23]
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lightsaber
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:01 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 2):
To be delivered in 2017 and parted out in 2018?

   And somehow it will be Boeing's fault.  
Quoting atal17 (Reply 4):
Unlike AI, IX is better managed. Set to post it's first profit after the merger of AI and erstwhile-IC. Interesting how good news about AI (or IX) barely reaches the ears of AI.net

Link? The issue with 'good news' on AI is that it often doesn't withstand scrutiny. When AI is able to stand as an independent business it will be given a fair evaluation here on a.net. But the reality is these will be bought with loans backed by the GoI not with free market financing.

India doesn't need to subsidize any airline anymore and they have more pressing needs for the funds (healthcare, education, subway trains, or a new airport for Mumbai). If AI 'sank or swam' on its own, the discussions would be different.

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zeke
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:10 am

Quoting Miami (Thread starter):

It could go either way, Lion air has a lot of frames it could lease.
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dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:59 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 7):
It could go either way,

Its not either or situation. NEO for AI and MAX for AIX.

I think article missed the main point AI was trying to make, "no more early builds", it will wait at least 2 years post EIS for first delivery.
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snehnath
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:08 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
Link? The issue with 'good news' on AI is that it often doesn't withstand scrutiny. When AI is able to stand as an independent business it will be given a fair evaluation here on a.net. But the reality is these will be bought with loans backed by the GoI not with free market financing

Here you go...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/b...t-in-FY15/articleshow/34794723.cms
 
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scbriml
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:13 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 9):
I think article missed the main point AI was trying to make, "no more early builds", it will wait at least 2 years post EIS for first delivery.

Then service "by 2017" isn't feasible regardless of type selected. So, is that what they're 'saying' or your interpretation of what they're saying?   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:24 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 11):
Then service "by 2017" isn't feasible regardless of type selected. So, is that what they're 'saying' or your interpretation of what they're saying?

NEO after 2017
MAX by 2020

http://articles.economictimes.indiat...-express-boeing-737-max-a-320-neos
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dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:33 pm

Here is another source to understand better. Keep in mind report quality tanks once "India" is prefixed/suffixed to any reputed media outlet and all Indian news reports include mandatory dissing of B787.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oq723Vyiek4

[Edited 2014-10-28 07:33:27]
All posts are just opinions.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:35 am

Seems that AI are going to order the 737 MAX.

Quote:
Air India (AI) is reported to be in talks with Boeing to swap its order for three 777-300s due for delivery in 2016 to ten 737 Max aircraft, which it can deploy in the AI Express fleet. However, the earliest slots available for 737 Max are in 2020, which means the airline is also in discussions with lessors to provide them with interim lift.

Source
http://www.aviationnews-online.com/a...to-swap-777-300s-order-for-737max/
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:43 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 14):
Seems that AI are going to order the 737 MAX.

Those are for AIX, AI will be A320NEO.
All posts are just opinions.
 
PEK777
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:53 pm

Does anyone even want to go to the trouble? I bet even COMAC would pass on an order to avoid dealing with these hooligans
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:24 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 15):
AI will be A320NEO

May I ask: how do you know this?
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:33 pm

It won't happen, but I still wish Air India would buy some 737-700s, just so we could see a 737-737 in service  
 
bobdino
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:34 pm

Quoting atal17 (Reply 4):
Those double bogeys are causing a lot of headaches.

How so?
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:38 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 17):
May I ask: how do you know this?
Quote:
Air India is evaluating leasing fuel- efficient airplanes like Airbus A-320 neos for itself and Boeing 737 Max for its subsidiary Air India Express over the next three to six years.
http://articles.economictimes.indiat...-express-boeing-737-max-a-320-neos
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BestWestern
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:54 pm

Can I ask a really stupid question.....


Who is paying for these aircraft?
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
ytz
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 2:56 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 21):
Who is paying for these aircraft?

The Indian taxpayer. You expect the state of airline of India to actually pay for aircraft? Come on now....
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:29 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 22):
The Indian taxpayer. You expect the state of airline of India to actually pay for aircraft? Come on now....

Absolutely wrong. Indian Tax Payers so far paid the "gap" on "minimum payments". Nothing more. Its all either EXIM guaranteed commercial prime loans or sub-prime commercial loans. They are not even sovereign counter guaranteed.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ytz
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:21 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 23):
Absolutely wrong. Indian Tax Payers so far paid the "gap" on "minimum payments". Nothing more. Its all either EXIM guaranteed commercial prime loans or sub-prime commercial loans. They are not even sovereign counter guaranteed.

Which all means that AI wouldn't be flying any 787s if left to its own devices.....
 
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Miami
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:30 pm

Well, congrats on the MAX order. Hope it helps them in the long term.
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ytz
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:36 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 25):
Well, congrats on the MAX order. Hope it helps them in the long term.

I don't think they've ordered anything....
 
Gr8Circle
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:34 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
The issue with 'good news' on AI is that it often doesn't withstand scrutiny.
Quoting PEK777 (Reply 16):
Does anyone even want to go to the trouble? I bet even COMAC would pass on an order to avoid dealing with these hooligans

So AI should stop buying planes and flying because a.nutters think so   
 
JOYA380B747
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:45 am

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 18):
It won't happen, but I still wish Air India would buy some 737-700s, just so we could see a 737-737 in service

That was seriously hilarious.... Now why did I not come up with that ever??   
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lightsaber
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:19 am

Quoting snehnath (Reply 10):

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
Link? The issue with 'good news' on AI is that it often doesn't withstand scrutiny. When AI is able to stand as an independent business it will be given a fair evaluation here on a.net. But the reality is these will be bought with loans backed by the GoI not with free market financing

Here you go...

Ok, so if IX were a separate division it would be on paper profitable, but how much of its expenses were shifted to other divisions to achieve the going forward. For example, what is the overhead rate charge Air India Express by corporate for management? Is that included? AI maintenance is losing money, was Air India Express billed for maintenance at a break even or did the losses in engineering mask the losses at Air India Express?

The accounting at AI is so opaque... it is disturbing. So while I am sure as booked the division of Air India Express made a profit, what I do not know is how services Air India Express received from corporate were accounted for and thus I remain skeptical.

Seriously, could I please have a link to the last 5 years of Air India annual reports? I never trust one quarter or even a few years of data. I look back to see if there are any skeletons. The big example of this was Crystler when Daimler bought them. The WSJ noted their low depreciation of leased vehicles which eventually triggered BILLIONS of losses for Daimler. I have no trouble looking into such details for DL, UA, AA, EK, LH, and a few others. So let us delve into AI.

A common way for airlines to show a short term profit is to alter (or even suspend) aircraft depreciation.
For example, in good years SQ aggressively depreciates their airframes while in bad years they slow to more 'industry standard' depreciation. The cash flow is the same...

What is Ai's depreciation schedule anyway? What types of leases are the signed up for (how much of the downstream depreciation is AI either at risk for or possibly to benefit)?

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 23):
Absolutely wrong. Indian Tax Payers so far paid the "gap" on "minimum payments". Nothing more. Its all either EXIM guaranteed commercial prime loans or sub-prime commercial loans. They are not even sovereign counter guaranteed.


Are you certain? When I Google for "Sovereign guarantee Air India" there were quite a few links. Now, I'm not certain on various aircraft types as I didn't go through the myriad of sovereign guarantee loans out to Air India. Is there a nice summary kept up to date online?

For example, here is an example of AI getting their 2nd batch of loans in 2013 with sovereign guarantees:
http://www.business-standard.com/art...-cheaper-loans-113101500970_1.html

If there is a gap on minimum payments, that implies a lease structure with a fluid term based on ROI for the leasing company. Has AI published their lease terms?

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BestWestern
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:31 am

A company with, from memory, just two routes that contribute to the bottom line just can't keep ordering new aircraft. Air India is no different a family living on credit cards and refinancing their home for the tenth time.

The Indian government should invest in making India better, rather than throwing money into the black hole that is Air India. Aviation in India would be better and a lot more sustainable without Air India.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:31 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 28):
Are you certain? When I Google for "Sovereign guarantee Air India" there were quite a few links. Now, I'm not certain on various aircraft types as I didn't go through the myriad of sovereign guarantee loans out to Air India. Is there a nice summary kept up to date online?

Basic assumption that Indian Journalists took time to read documents before they report is misplaced.

As of 2006 AI has no debt or losses.
It took on $9.2 Billion 97% debt based on the promise GoI will give capital infusion and/or Sovereign Counter Guarantee(SCG).
In 2009 AI asked for $1 Billion capital infusion, GoI rejected
AI asked for SCG, GoI couldn't provide as its SCG obligations exceeded 0.5% GDP limit.
From 2012-Current total money Indian Tax payers infused is $1.7 Billion.

If you look at the interest payments on Non-EXIM guaranteed loans, its all sub-prime as there is no SCG. If you look at AI RFPs for loans, they are not SCGed.

GoI don't need another committee to explain this, AI/GoI can call Suze Orman, she can explain what to do. If AI want to get out of this debt trap, GoI just need to start paying of high-interest loans first.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 29):
A company with, from memory, just two routes that contribute to the bottom line just can't keep ordering new aircraft. Air India is no different a family living on credit cards and refinancing their home for the tenth time.

This is correct.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 29):
The Indian government should invest in making India better, rather than throwing money into the black hole that is Air India.

This is wrong. Bulk of AI's revenue goes to interest payments, rest to operations. If you have $9.2 Billion and someone paying off $Billions/year for last few years, few things should happen
1) Debt should disappear
2) Interest payments should come down

The fact that AI's debt continues to grow even though its operational performance is improving is clear evidence there is fire hose, its a trickle.

According to CAG estimates just $1 Billion capital infusion in 2009 would have made the difference.
All posts are just opinions.
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:36 pm

I imagine Air India's boss in Toulouse asking John Leahy "if we take the wheels and the engines off will they fit on our other planes?"
 
BestWestern
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:28 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 30):

Only a billion investment. That's ok then. The operational performance is improving, but still only - from memory - two routes contributing to the bottom line. Thats not a place where you order more aircraft, and increase debt even further.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
ytz
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:05 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 32):
Only a billion investment. That's ok then.

A billion here. A billion there. Pretty soon, you're talking real money. :-P

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 32):
Thats not a place where you order more aircraft, and increase debt even further.

They'll need to re-capitalise their narrowbody fleet eventually. And since they aren't making profits, it'll be the Indian taxpayer paying for them. It is what it is. If the taxpayers of India don't mind, who are we to question?

I just take exception when Air India is given a pass around all these discussions about state-owned carriers. It's an SOE, and a poorly performing (financially) one at that.
 
ytz
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:14 am

The only question is who does the Indian government favour more politically, for this order? America or Europe?

At least 100 airframes between AI and IX. It's a reasonably juicy order. And I think they'll be order for both carriers at the same time. They still have time to replace IX's fleet. The fleet will barely average 10 years old by end 2017. AI's fleet might be more pressing.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:30 am

I suppose the Indian populatiion must be happy with their democratic leaders spending money to lose more money in comparison to investing in schools, hospitals and toilets whilst at the same time undermining the rest of the airline industry in the country.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 1:13 am

Quoting Miami (Thread starter):
What do you think will be the winner?

I think the winner would be manufactured by the company that AI thinks they could milk for the most compensation in case the poor management at AI or their maintenance habits resulted in the usual news stories / problems for AI operated aircraft...  
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:00 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 32):
Only a billion investment.

$1.7 Billion total so far.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 32):
The operational performance is improving, but still only - from memory - two routes contributing to the bottom line. Thats not a place where you order more aircraft, and increase debt even further.

Lets looks at 2012 expenses.

Fuel $1.4 Billion
Operations $703 Million
Employee Benefits $580 Million
Finance Charges $593 Million
Depreciation $260 Million
Others $276 Million
Adjustments $20 Million

If finance charges are ~15% of your expenditure, doesn't matter how well your ops are, you will dig yourself deeper in the hole.

Quoting ytz (Reply 33):
A billion here. A billion there.

A billion here and a billion there should wipe out the debt.
Why AI still has $10 Billion debt???

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 35):
I suppose the Indian populatiion must be happy with their democratic leaders spending money to lose more money in comparison to investing in schools, hospitals and toilets whilst at the same time undermining the rest of the airline industry in the country.

$1.36 per Indian total so far, compare that to $254 per person we spent on our airlines bankrolling our airlines.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ytz
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:11 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 35):
I suppose the Indian populatiion must be happy with their democratic leaders spending money to lose more money in comparison to investing in schools, hospitals and toilets whilst at the same time undermining the rest of the airline industry in the country.

As long as you have middle class apologists, like the ones you encounter on forums, there will be no change. The poor are too busy trying to survive to care about politics. Sad, really. The people of India really do deserve better.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 37):
Why AI still has $10 Billion debt???

Epic mismanagement and government corruption.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 37):
$1.36 per Indian total so far, compare that to $254 per person we spent on our airlines bankrolling our airlines.

Those US carriers have also largely paid back their bailouts if I'm not mistaken. What hope is there of AI ever paying a penny back?

Moreover, $254 per head for a country with a per captia GDP of nearly $50 000 per capita and very little abject poverty is manageable. Even $0.01 is unforgiveable for a country with $3700 per capita GDP and 37% of the population living in poverty. And this is a poverty line that's abject poverty (by Western standards....something we'd call squalor).

This type of wastage is particularly egregious when you consider the small percentage of Indians who actually pay taxes. The government is very limited in funds. And it has many pressing priorities, including poverty and military modernization.

But like I said, if the taxpayers of India are okay with it.....who are we to question their preference for third rate governance and government support for perpetually failing SOEs?
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:37 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 38):
Those US carriers have also largely paid back their bailouts if I'm not mistaken.

Total BS.

The $117 Mill to $300 Mill profit US Treasury supposed to be made on the $1.7 Billion stock purchase guarantees.

They don't talk about $5 Billion cash they pocketed instantly right after 9/11, or rest of $15 Billion bailout.

US Carriers so far burdened Americans to the extent of $80 Billion. No other country in the world matches this.

$61 Billion shed in C11s (about $30 Billion dumped on PBGC)
$15 Billion 9/11 bailout. (In this $5 Billion cash)
$ 4 Billion EAS and SCASDP.

And we will continue to fund $200 Million/year for EAS and SCASDP for ever.

Quoting ytz (Reply 38):
Moreover, $254 per head for a country with a per captia GDP of nearly $50 000 per capita and very little abject poverty is manageable. Even $0.01 is unforgiveable for a country with $3700 per capita GDP and 37% of the population living in poverty. And this is a poverty line that's abject poverty (by Western standards....something we'd call squalor).

$1.36 is 2 hours work per minimum wage in India.
$254 is 35 hours work per minimum wage in US.
All posts are just opinions.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 6:09 pm

Management issues.

None of my long haul routes are profitable

None of my international short haul hub routes are profitable

Two of my international regional routes are profitable, infrequent routes flying to Nepal and Myanmar from regional airports

I've lost millions flying to Australia.

Over half of my international routes don't make enough to pay for fuel and crew


Management suggestion

Let's order 100 aircraft.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8347
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Wed Nov 12, 2014 6:42 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 40):
Let's order 100 aircraft.

No one is buying 100 planes. I think folks are really confused by having a single thread for two different topics.

Short term lease
AIC leasing 5x A320 CEOs from China Aviation Leasing (deliveries starting Feb 2015)
AIX leasing 8x B738s again from China

Long term (beginning 2019-2020 delivers)
AIC 19 x A320 NEOs
AIX 10 x B737 MAX (conversion of existing AIC's 3xB77W order)

Final fleet of AI/AIX will be
B788 - 15 (after sending troubled teens to foster homes)
B77W - 12
B744 - 4 (may leave fleet)
A319 - 22
A320 - 21
A321 - 20
B737- 25-30
RJs - 8-10
All posts are just opinions.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
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RE: Air India Studying A320neo/737 MAX

Thu Nov 13, 2014 1:27 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 40):


Management suggestion

Let's order 100 aircraft.

We lose on every sale. But we'll make it up in volume.

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Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos