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New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:35 am

Welcome to the 149th edition of the New Zealand Aviation Threads. Link to previous thread New Zealand Aviation Thread 148 (by American 767 Sep 25 2014 in Civil Aviation)#menu202
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:47 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 202):

I don't really see how having a size gap between the ATR and A320 is a good idea. The ATR will be too small for some routes but the A320 will be too big for some routes. We possibly have a QF problems with not having the correct size aircraft once the 733s are retired. If NZ doesn't want to add any E90 to the fleet then why not A319s to fill the gap? NZ will never know if the hanger queen title is good for the E90 unless they try it. The E90 with all Y handles 100 passengers which is a nice fit between the 66 seat ATR and 177 seat A320

Quoting zkncj (Reply 205):
If anything NZ needs to go larger, and add a couple of A321 to domestic.

I'll be surprised if the A321s don't arrive on domestic routes during peak times
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:36 am

On the topic of the VA CBR-NZ rumours, I'd be surprised if both were started at the same time.

Despite the government links on CBR-WLG I would have thought CBR-AKL would be more successful. If timed right it could connect to North America and Pacific Island flights and if pax are headed to WLG a connection via AKL is just as good if not better as the current offering via SYD. Not to mention a larger population base in AKL, better domestic connecting options and probably more non government business traffic between AKL and CBR
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:45 am

What will happen to the NZ domestic fleet when the Beeches are retired and there's no suitable replacement? Will the airline just have to upsize and decrease frequency, possibly cancel some more marginal routes?
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:21 pm

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 3):
What will happen to the NZ domestic fleet when the Beeches are retired and there's no suitable replacement? Will the airline just have to upsize and decrease frequency, possibly cancel some more marginal routes?

It's conjecture, but I expect the 3 airlines to be merged into one company once Eagle runs out of aircraft, and maybe ATR42-600s ordered to replace DH8s. As you say all the regionals that can't pay for themselves wound up too. Milk run flights might be possible too.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 1):
The ATR will be too small for some routes but the A320 will be too big for some routes

the ATR is better off being too small because it will have higher frequency instead, which is what is preferred by the customers. Routes like AKL-PMR could have a jet if they chose it, but they don't want to give up frequency for it,

There is a hulking great gulf between the big cities, and the smaller towns in terms of demand. There are virtually no other routes except AKL/WLG/CHC/DUD/ZQN that could justify anything larger than an ATR. As it is, with all the upsized services DH8-->ATR and BEH-->DH8 around the country NZ is already seeing if the demand is there, and trying to grow it into something, but the fact is that there are still plenty of empty seats around the country because the demand isn't there.
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:02 pm

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 4):
but the fact is that there are still plenty of empty seats around the country because the demand isn't there.

NZ seem to be managing it fairly well with a domestic load factor of 81.1 % in FY2014 but admittedly down 1.5% from FY2013
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 5):
NZ seem to be managing it fairly well with a domestic load factor of 81.1 % in FY2014 but admittedly down 1.5% from FY2013

Not forgetting that the 1.5% drop in load factor is largely caused by the Introduction of more A320s, passenger numbers are going up, just take an more work with the A320s have 40 more seats.
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Fri Nov 07, 2014 10:35 pm

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...er-auckland-service-from-jan-2015/

Just saw this on routesonline

Looks like CZ is upgauging CZ305 CAN-AKL/CZ306 AKL-CAN to 77W from 1st of January to 29th of March

CZ335/CZ336 remains a 788
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Sat Nov 08, 2014 2:03 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 5):

Based on my observations alone, I feel like the domestic jet flights seem much fuller than the prop flights. The jet flights between the main centres seemed to have been able to absorb the increased capacity from 737 to A320 much better than the prop increases. I regularly find myself on half full or less Q300 and ATR flights. Would be interesting to see the load factor figures on a route by route basis
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Sat Nov 08, 2014 3:56 am

Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 8):
I regularly find myself on half full or less Q300 and ATR flights

I have been one of 3 people on a 1900D before, and plenty of times have I been on flights with under 20 on a Q300 and under 35 on an ATR. It's so variable. Sometimes the loads are chocka, other times totally empty.
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dash8
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Sun Nov 09, 2014 7:34 am

Does anyone know how I can tell or find out what ANZ tail number aircraft will be operating a route prior to travel. I have tried multiple different search terms in Google but no luck, Cheers.
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Sun Nov 09, 2014 8:14 am

Just ask here. There are a few members that should be able to help.
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:33 am

Quoting Aotearoa (Reply 11):

Ok, does anyone know what rego is operating NZ898 on the 20th December. Would be good to know though where people source the info for future reference  
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:56 am

Quoting dash8 (Reply 12):

Ask closer to the time.... You're never going to get a definitive answer more than a month out from flying.
It's all about the destination AND the journey.
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Sun Nov 09, 2014 6:16 pm

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 13):
Ask closer to the time.... You're never going to get a definitive answer more than a month out from flying.

Try 2-3 days out and you will have a fairly accurate idea of which 2-3 aircraft they will use. However A320s change on a daily basis due Technical or Reactionary (Late arrival) kind of reasons. The shorthaul fleet changes constantly, far more than longhaul due to the sheer number of takeoffs and landings vs hours used in flight.
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NZ1
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:43 am

Aerorob is correct. Longhaul I could tell you with some certainty around a week or so out...but A320 changes daily due to all sorts of reasons.

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zkncj
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:53 am

Looks like NZ is starting there 75 years campaign, any chances for an Retro 789?
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:53 am

http://www.ausbt.com.au/lan-to-fly-boeing-787-on-sydney-santiago-route

LAN finally gives us a date for the 787 starting SCL-AKL-SYD! April 18 - I presume that's the date it leaves SCL.
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:27 am

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 17):
LAN finally gives us a date for the 787 starting SCL-AKL-SYD! April 18

The last A340 departs after that though I thought (I recall May-June). It's possible that it will only be 3-4 times a week to begin.
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:40 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 18):

The press release mentions it will go daily from the beginning so the 343 will be confined to some other American/European route after April.. The mention of it going daily was omitted from the article.
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:07 pm

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 17):
LAN finally gives us a date for the 787 starting SCL-AKL-SYD! April 18 - I presume that's the date it leaves SCL.

By that time LAN will have been operating the 787 for more than 30-months. I don't know what the Chilean regulators rules are on EDTO>180-min. but I feel certain LAN will be looking to use the type upto its FAA approved 330-mins. It would expect CAA NZ to follow the ICAO protocol on this. I would also think the Australians are probably on side since I don't believe LAN would be announcing the changes in equipment without having the i's dotted and the t's crossed.
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:21 pm

I'm not sure that LAN need the Australians on side....the AKL-SYD return sectors fit within existing CASA rules and the SCL-AKL return sectors are nothing to do with CASA since they are between Chile and New Zealand.... or have I missed something?
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:44 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 21):
or have I missed something?

I simply do not know. Does CASA have an interest since there will be Australians aboard on the EDTO> 180-min. sector? I guess we will have to wait and see how it plays out.   
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:24 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 21):
I'm not sure that LAN need the Australians on side....the AKL-SYD return sectors fit within existing CASA rules and the SCL-AKL return sectors are nothing to do with CASA since they are between Chile and New Zealand.... or have I missed something?
Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 22):
I simply do not know. Does CASA have an interest since there will be Australians aboard on the EDTO> 180-min. sector? I guess we will have to wait and see how it plays out.

AKL-SCL will not concern CASA since it does not touch Australian airspace. Carrying Australians outside Australian airspace obviously does not concern CASA or there are a LOT of other airlines/routes they would be concerned about first.

I do notice the LA has said nothing about non stop SCL- Australian service, so I assume they are not getting good vibes from CASA.

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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:02 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 23):

As an aside, do pax on LA from Chile to Australian ports other than SYD change planes/flights in SYD or AKL, ie does a MEL or BNE bound pax get on a QF code share flight at AKL or SYD? LA are presumably allowed to pick up trans-Tasman pax as well?
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kiwiandrew

RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:31 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 23):
AKL-SCL will not concern CASA since it does not touch Australian airspace.

That was my initial thought... but I guess since QF places its code on this flight CASA might have an excuse to poke their noses in after all. Does anyone know whether CASA would have the right to veto QF putting its codeshare flight number on the LA operated flight ?
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:37 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 25):
Does anyone know whether CASA would have the right to veto QF putting its codeshare flight number on the LA operated flight ?

It MOST definitely does! Will it? Who knows? My guess is that they will ignore it unless somebody makes a fuss about it.

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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:55 pm

Plenty fly to MEL BNE and OOL on QF JQ ex LA via AKL
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777ER
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:12 am

3pm today NZ is making an announcement regarding its 1900D routes which are apparently loosing $1m per month

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/6...nz-plans-network-announcement.html
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:22 am

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 3):
What will happen to the NZ domestic fleet when the Beeches are retired and there's no suitable replacement? Will the airline just have to upsize and decrease frequency, possibly cancel some more marginal routes?
Quoting 777ER (Reply 28):

Well this seems to answer your question... heavy on the cancellation of routes. According to the announcement Whakatane, Kaitaia and Westport are gone. As are Whangarei to Wellington, Taupo to Wellington, Palmerston North to Nelson and Hamilton to Auckland "from February 2016".

At this rate there will be no B1900 flights in NZ soon!
 
aerokiwi
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:26 am

Wow, that's a big call for Kaitaia, Whakatane and Westport - conveniently post-election.

Whakatane especially - it's a one hour drive to Tauranga. Maybe they should have done a daily combined AKL-WHK-GIS flight? Driving over the ranges to Gizzy is pretty tortuous.
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:41 am

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 30):
Maybe they should have done a daily combined AKL-WHK-GIS flight? Driving over the ranges to Gizzy is pretty tortuous.

I'm surprised at the lack of "milk run" routes which could possibly make some of these routes viable with a Dash, especially in some of the more isolated areas as aerokiwi points out. AKL-WHK-GIS, AKL-WRE-KAT, AKL-HLZ-WSZ perhaps?
 
zkncj
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:51 am

Quoting dc10s2hnl (Reply 29):
At this rate there will be no B1900 flights in NZ soon!

The B1900 are gone come 2016, with extra ATRs orded.
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:52 am

Quote:
In addition to the route withdrawals we will be progressively winding down our 19 seat fleet and moving the remaining destinations to larger 50 seat aircraft, requiring an investment of $300 million in 13 new and more efficient regional aircraft. Experience tells us that when we do this we can reduce the average fare on that route by around 15%.

So they're going to order some ATR-42-600s (or convert their ATR-72 order)?


Its always good to beat the Australians at stuff.  
Quote:
A chance meeting between Prime Minister John Key and his Australian counterpart Tony Abbott at Darwin has sparked a "race to Beijing" between the two leaders' planes.

Key's airforce transport was refuelling at Darwin yesterday en route to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, which starts in China today, when Abbott's plane landed alongside it.

That launched the inevitable informal Anzac test and banter between the flight decks that ended in the Kiwis hauling in Abbott's 15 minute head start about three quarters of the way along the eight hour flight to Beijing.

The bolt to Beijing was eventually won by the NZ plane by about 20 minutes.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...-race-planes-to-Beijing-Apec-talks

Quoting zkncj (Reply 16):
any chances for an Retro 789

Yes please! Would look fantastic in the pre 1996 livery! Or the Pacific Wave livery for that matter.   
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A330NZ
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:53 am

Quoting dc10s2hnl (Reply 29):
Palmerston North to Nelson

My parents are moving to Nelson in January, I'm starting at Massey Manawatu from February - this route would've been so convenient for me!! I'm disappointed it's going, but understandable as these aircraft are making the route unviable
 
zkncj
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:58 am

Quoting zkojq (Reply 33):
So they're going to order some ATR-42-600s (or convert their ATR-72 order)?

Does't mean extra ATR 72-600s, which will free up Q300 to take over some B1900 routes?
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:12 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 35):
Does't mean extra ATR 72-600s, which will free up Q300 to take over some B1900 routes?

Oh I guess it could do. Then again, I look to this bit of reply 4:

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 4):
and maybe ATR42-600s ordered to replace DH8s.

and am reminded that aerorobnz has a very,very good track record of being right about stuff on these threads. So maybe it will be ATR-42-600s afterall.  
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axio
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:23 am

I don't think the closures are a real surprise. PMR-NSN has been tried a couple of times now, but I imagine the yields are poor.

I wonder what will happen to the other B1900 routes from PMR?
PMR-WLG is needed for domestic feed, and is currently 2x weekdays; and PMR-HLZ has been a 2 flights weekdays for ages and my impression is it relies on busines travellers who'll want same-day-return as an option. Going to 50 seats for all of those is a big capacity increase.

I'm also surprised Wanganui hasn't got the chop. 4 B1900 flights a day (same as Whakatane) and only an hour drive from PMR - I would have expected it to be gone.
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:54 am

Quoting A330NZ (Reply 34):
I'm starting at Massey Manawatu from February

So am I! Though I'll still have an airlink back home to AKL   Even from observing tarmac scenes regarding the B1900 at WLG and AKL, they never seem to have many passengers, of two that I saw at WLG recently one had 9 passengers, the other had 10. I'm not an expert but would cargo even be a factor on the routes using the B1900?
 
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:09 am

AKL-WAG will be first port to get Q300 in April
 
byronicle6
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:40 am

I'm a little surprised by Whakatane being cut altogether. That route is at 4x daily 1900D now, which funnily enough is more than TUO at 3x daily

Not at all surprised by WRE-WLG, AKL-KAT, WLG-WSZ, PMR-NSN Those routes are all only 1 or 2 daily.
I feel the only reason HLZ-AKL has lasted this long is the onward international connections. Surely that route on its own is not profitable.

Quoting axio (Reply 37):

It does seem interesting that they are keeping HLZ-PMR, but i guess a lot of the (ground costs in particular) they would have anyway operating into both of those ports
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:58 am

Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 40):
I feel the only reason HLZ-AKL has lasted this long is the onward international connections. Surely that route on its own is not profitable.

More likely to rotate aircraft through the HLZ maintenance base.
 
A330NZ
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:11 am

What is this whole rejig going to mean for Eagle Air and their employees?
 
777ER
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:13 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 35):
Quoting zkojq (Reply 33):So they're going to order some ATR-42-600s (or convert their ATR-72 order)?Does't mean extra ATR 72-600s, which will free up Q300 to take over some B1900 routes?

Four new 68 seaters worth $100m http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/6...nounces-regional-network-cuts.html

Pleased to see Timaru retained as all the TIM flights I've been on have had at least 15 passengers on each flight. Not surprised about WRE-WLG, but am surprised its lasted this long. Wonder if NZ gave the affected centres the option of helping to pay for the cost of the flights similar to the RAR-LAX set up?
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:37 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 43):
Wonder if NZ gave the affected centres the option of helping to pay for the cost of the flights similar to the RAR-LAX set up?

I hope not.

Hear me yell if any of my rates were used to support WRE-WLG. It's easy enough to connect in Auckland and the Whangarei District Council already has more than enough debt.

Similarly, it isn't an arduous drive from Kataia to Kerikeri - 60 K? If private money wants to support it, fine.

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777ER
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:40 am

Quoting A330NZ (Reply 42):

Basically Eagle is being closed down and all staff won't be employed by Eagle.

From the stuff.co.nz article linked in reply 43

Luxon acknowledged the news was disappointing for travellers as well as staff of Eagle Airways, which operate the aircraft.

"The airline has 232 employees and there are good redeployment opportunities across a rapidly growing Air New Zealand Group," he said.

The EPMU said more than 30 aircraft engineers in Hamilton could lose their jobs as Air NZ closed Eagle Air.

"These engineers are working in highly-skilled, well-paid jobs which create a lot of value for the local economy," Strachan Crang, EPMU assistant director of organising, said.

"They'll find it very difficult to get similar work in the Waikato and many may have to relocate."
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zkncj
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:18 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 43):
Four new 68 seaters worth $100m http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/6....html

Any chance they are the ones that VA have currently parked up in storage?
 
777ER
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:25 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 46):

They won't really be required till April once the 1900Ds start being removed
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PA515
Posts: 1543
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:58 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 43):
Four new 68 seaters worth $100m

So, $25m for an ATR72-600.

The Media Release says $300m over four years in new 68 seaters, so that's twelve at $25m.
ZK-MVA was delivered in Nov 2012, the last 1900D goes by Aug 2016. That's the four years.
The 19 Oct 2011 ATR72-600 order was seven, plus five options. That's the twelve 68 seaters.

Only the delivery dates to be confirmed. Looks like one in the first half of FY2016, one in the second half of FY2016, and two in the first half of FY2017, going by the option details in the 2011 Media Release.

PA515

[Edited 2014-11-11 00:05:52]
 
NZ1
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RE: New Zealand Aviation Thread 149

Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:54 am

The B1900's have already started being removed. 2 gone already with another 4 to follow shortly. Don't be suprised if the demise of Eagle is only the first step in the restructure of regional operations.

NZ1
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NZ1
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