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KarelXWB
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China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:41 am

China Southern will accelerate the pace of its expansion in the North American market:

Quote:
The Guangzhou-based carrier will open thrice-weekly Guangzhou-Wuhan-San Francisco route on Dec. 16, with plans to launch four-time-weekly non-stop Guangzhou-San Francisco route in mid-2015 and increase the frequency of Guangzhou-New York route to daily. The capacity expansion will bring the airline's North American destinations to four and its North American flights to 28 round-trips per week, together with its existing Guangzhou-Los Angeles and Guangzhou-Vancouver routes.

Source
http://www.wcarn.com/news/39/39134.html
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wedgetail737
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 2:03 pm

I'm holding out hope for China Southern 787 service to SEA eventually.
 
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chrisnh
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:14 pm

Whether it makes sense or not, the roll they're on will prompt more than a few to say 'Boston.'
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:45 pm

Quoting chrisnh (Reply 2):
Whether it makes sense or not, the roll they're on will prompt more than a few to say 'Boston.'

What is it about Boston that's driving their massive Asian airline expansion?

Anyway, I was thinking Atlanta, Seattle, or even Detroit because of the DL hubs.
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airbazar
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 3):

What is it about Boston that's driving their massive Asian airline expansion?

Our economy is on fire regardless of all the naysayers, and the industries that make up the economy are global industries. Couple that with the unwillingness of domestic carriers to serve the market and a governor that has spent a lot of time traveling abroad and wooing foreign carriers because he understands that links to emerging markets are important, and you have your answer.

Case in point:
http://www.mass.gov/governor/pressof...israel-uae-innovation-mission.html

However, I'd be skeptical of CZ starting CAN-BOS due to its proximity to HKG. I think PVG-BOS is the next most likely route from China.

[Edited 2014-11-13 09:00:40]

[Edited 2014-11-13 09:01:35]
 
jetblue1965
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 5:40 pm

I see YYZ and ORD coming online before BOS/SEA. With all the rapid expansion into BOS by foreign carriers, they'll need a bit of time to absorb the new capacity in a healthy manner.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 3):

Anyway, I was thinking Atlanta, Seattle, or even Detroit because of the DL hubs.

SEA is marginal at best, ATL is totally out of the question (heck, ATL-PVG failed so i don't see how CAN is better alternative), and DTW is much better served by DL than by CZ
 
steex
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 6:29 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 3):
What is it about Boston that's driving their massive Asian airline expansion?
Quoting airbazar (Reply 4):
Our economy is on fire regardless of all the naysayers, and the industries that make up the economy are global industries.

I would add that the lack of a US-carrier international hub at BOS and its relative proximity to JFK actually held BOS without Asia service that it likely could've supported. While economic growth has spurred more carriers to show up, some of the Asian expansion is really just playing catch up to fill a need that already existed and probably makes the recent rapid growth more sustainable than it might otherwise seem.
 
airbazar
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 6:45 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 6):
While economic growth has spurred more carriers to show up, some of the Asian expansion is really just playing catch up to fill a need that already existed and probably makes the recent rapid growth more sustainable than it might otherwise seem.

This is the wrong thread probably but the "need" didn't exist until recently. This need for Asian links is a direct result of the post .com bubble offshoring movement (India), as well as the decline in the relative role of manufacturing in China giving way other wealthier industrie,s which are more align with New England's economy.
 
steex
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:23 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 7):
This is the wrong thread probably but the "need" didn't exist until recently. This need for Asian links is a direct result of the post .com bubble offshoring movement (India), as well as the decline in the relative role of manufacturing in China giving way other wealthier industrie,s which are more align with New England's economy.

I don't disagree with you, I think we're just defining "existing" using different relative timelines. Asian service didn't show up at BOS until April 2012, but the service was arguably in demand several years earlier and is now robust enough that the routes aren't as speculative as they might appear on the surface. I didn't intend to suggest that BOS-Asia was a glaring hole for decades that is finally be filled.
 
SLCSFOPDX
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:26 pm

If CZ is to expand in North America I would think that SEA, ORD, IAD, BOS, and maybe HNL and ATL would be the most logical destinations.
 
stlgph
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:46 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 5):
SEA is marginal at best, ATL is totally out of the question (heck, ATL-PVG failed so i don't see how CAN is better alternative), and DTW is much better served by DL than by CZ

Delta has a heavy interest in getting deeper into the China market. SEA is *not* marginal at best and ATL is *not* totally out of the question.
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Fastphilly
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:10 am

Quoting stlgph (Reply 10):
Quoting stlgph (Reply 10):

Delta has a heavy interest in getting deeper into the China market. SEA is *not* marginal at best and ATL is *not* totally out of the question.

ATL is indeed out of the question. CZ isn't known for ULH routes to markets with low PDEW and questionable yields. ATL is a pipe dream. Delta pulled the plug on its Shanghai route. The CZ service would be dead on arrival.
 
Thomaas
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:35 am

I could see ORD and YYZ next with SEA, DTW, HNL, BOS, IAD as likely candidates later on. ATL will not happen since DL couldn't make PVG work and CAN is even further. ATL does not make much sense as an Asian gateway.
 
Iloveboeing
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:00 am

Quoting Fastphilly (Reply 11):

ATL is indeed out of the question. CZ isn't known for ULH routes to markets with low PDEW and questionable yields. ATL is a pipe dream. Delta pulled the plug on its Shanghai route. The CZ service would be dead on arrival

Not necessarily. DL's ATL hub is one of the largest in the world and has connections galore. DL should very well be able to make PEK, PVG, HKG, CAN and many, many other Chinese cities work.

There needs to be an Open Skies agreement signed between China and the USA and every major Chinese city should have nonstop service to somewhere in the United States. I would love to see nonstop service to places like Chongqing, Tianjin, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Nanning, Kunming, Lahsa, Wulumuqi (Urumqi), Huhehaote (Hohhot), Shenyang, Changchun, Qingdao and much more.
 
a321luke
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:00 am

They were actually supposed to fly DTW-PEK back in 2009.

China Southern Launches PEK-DTW (by Flynavy Nov 22 2008 in Civil Aviation)

I can totally see them actually launching DTW this time, but not necessarily from PEK. Last I heard, DTW-China is performing very well for DL. A 3x weekly CZ flight to a new Chinese destination would complement the daily DL flights very nicely IMHO. I see it happening.
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stlgph
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:20 am

Quoting Fastphilly (Reply 11):
ATL is indeed out of the question. CZ isn't known for ULH routes to markets with low PDEW and questionable yields. ATL is a pipe dream. Delta pulled the plug on its Shanghai route. The CZ service would be dead on arrival.

Then please explain why Richard & Ed keep discussing the possibility in their editorial board meetings with transportation reporters.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
steex
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:30 am

Quoting iloveboeing (Reply 13):
I would love to see nonstop service to places like Chongqing, Tianjin, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Nanning, Kunming, Lahsa, Wulumuqi (Urumqi), Huhehaote (Hohhot), Shenyang, Changchun, Qingdao and much more.

That's an interesting list, but several of those are really not major cities in the sense of demanding longhaul service. Lhasa, Ürümqi, and Hohhot, for example, are all urban areas of ~3 million or smaller with no notable ties to North America. Nanning is also in that ballpark and Kunming is closer to ~4 million, but both are hurt by being located in the far south of China. Tianjin and Hangzhou are both bustling cities, but suffer from being in the shadow of the larger PEK and PVG catchment areas in the same way that SZX and CAN have their longhaul services severely impacted by HKG (and Shenzhen/Guangzhou are much larger markets).

From that list, I really only see Chongqing and Wuhan potentially supporting some level of service in the near future (and Wuhan is already set to receive the CZ CAN-WUH-SFO service mentioned in the OP). Shenyang already has North American service as an intermediate stop on Sichuan Airlines' YVR-SHE-CTU route.

The only factors that may change that are local subsidies, which I wouldn't necessarily rule out for any large-ish city in China, or the desire of some of the smaller Chinese carriers to spread their wings internationally without access to longhaul routes at some of the primary airports. I wouldn't be shocked to see Xiamen Airlines start a route like XMN-HGH-LAX, for example.
 
Thomaas
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:42 am

Quoting iloveboeing (Reply 13):
Not necessarily. DL's ATL hub is one of the largest in the world and has connections galore. DL should very well be able to make PEK, PVG, HKG, CAN and many, many other Chinese cities work.

DL wasn't able to make 3x weekly PVG work. There is a reason why they are desperately trying to build a TPAC hub in SEA, ATL just doesn't work for flights to Asia. They wouldn't be going through all that headache if they could do it from their largest hub.

Quoting iloveboeing (Reply 13):
There needs to be an Open Skies agreement signed between China and the USA and every major Chinese city should have nonstop service to somewhere in the United States. I would love to see nonstop service to places like Chongqing, Tianjin, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Nanning, Kunming, Lahsa, Wulumuqi (Urumqi), Huhehaote (Hohhot), Shenyang, Changchun, Qingdao and much more.

There are 30 unallocated frequencies from the US to China. Any US carrier could choose to serve those cities any day without a problem.
 
HKG212
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:42 am

Quoting steex (Reply 16):
and Shenzhen/Guangzhou are much larger markets

Only in terms of the number of people living there. In terms of O/D demand they are still far behind Hong Kong. As you observe elsewhere in your post, city size is not a sufficient indicator.
 
steex
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:00 am

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 18):
Only in terms of the number of people living there. In terms of O/D demand they are still far behind Hong Kong. As you observe elsewhere in your post, city size is not a sufficient indicator.
Quoting steex (Reply 16):
Tianjin and Hangzhou are both bustling cities, but suffer from being in the shadow of the larger PEK and PVG catchment areas in the same way that SZX and CAN have their longhaul services severely impacted by HKG (and Shenzhen/Guangzhou are much larger markets).

Sorry if I was unclear - I meant that Guangzhou and Shenzhen are larger markets than Hangzhou or Tianjin.

[Edited 2014-11-13 19:01:37]
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:01 am

Quoting SLCSFOPDX (Reply 9):
maybe HNL

If the USA ever bring China into VWP then Hawai'i will EXPLODE. So long as PRC nationals require a US visa, though, demand will be more muted.

Quoting iloveboeing (Reply 13):
DL should very well be able to make PEK, PVG, HKG, CAN and many, many other Chinese cities work.

They've tried PVG twice, and failed twice. The market simply isn't there.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 17):
There are 30 unallocated frequencies from the US to China.

Presumably about to drop to 23, but still plenty of capacity for US carriers to add whatever they want.

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 18):
Only in terms of the number of people living there. In terms of O/D demand they are still far behind Hong Kong.

He means compared to Tianjin and Hangzhou. Guangzhou is significantly larger and more important than those two.
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VCEflyboy
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RE: China Southern To Expand In North America

Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:30 am

Personally I see an interesting development with Japan going out of their way to mend relations with China.
If they allowed 5th freedom rights, CZ could fly to variety of US destinations profitably via NRT.
And I dont think the Japanese airlines would really be afraid of the competition, given the loyalty of their customer base.

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