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gilesdavies
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BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:52 pm

I was curious to know what people think the BA fleet will look like in say the next decade or so and if they place further orders what they will be?

Over the last ten odd years the airline has run quite a simple Long Haul fleet of 777-200ERs and the 747-400's, with the odd the 767-300ER covering the thinner routes.

In recent years the fleet seems to be getting more complex with the above mentioned fleet still operating for the forseeable future, and seeing the addition of the 777-300ER, 787-8 and A380... With more of the latter two still to arrive and orders for the 787-9 and 10s and also A350-1000s.

Are the current orders in place sufficient to keep the fleet ticking over for the next ten years or will we see additional top-up orders... Could we even see another aircraft type added to the fleet, for example the 777-XXL or the 747-8?

I might have only imagined this and but I am sure I read somewhere the 777-300ERs are leased and only intended to stay in the fleet for 5-10 years until the newer the generation aircraft arrived... Is this correct? Also what is the time line for retiring the 767s, 777-200ERs and 747-400s, even though this might be a few years away?

Also will we see a time in the future, when BA will operate a simple long haul fleet like they did previously with just two or three types?
 
Andy33
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:16 pm

I can answer the one about the long haul 767s. Only 4 are planned to survive 2015, and they'll all be gone during 2016

Source:
http://www.iagshares.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=240949&p=irol-presentations.
Go to 2014 Capital Markets Day and look at slide 16, showing the fleet plans for the combined IAG group to the end of 2015.

Continued reduction in 744s as well, down to 39 by end 2015.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:26 pm

18 747-436 (possibly G-CIVO/P, CIVR-CIVZ, BYGA-BYGG) are getting a full cabin refresh to see them in service until past 2020. Likely these aircraft will operate the shorter BA longhaul routes, in a Hi-J layout - LOS, ACC, DME, JFK, BOS, etc.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:30 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I might have only imagined this and but I am sure I read somewhere the 777-300ERs are leased and only intended to stay in the fleet for 5-10 years until the newer the generation aircraft arrived...

They have twelve (12) 777-300ERs. Six are leased (four from GECAS and two from ALC) but six were bought directly from Boeing.

My guess is that they'll be around for quite some time.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:44 pm

We know for sure:

787-8
787-9
787-10
A350-1000
A380

As above, the 77W and 744s will be around for a fair while, not to mention the 772s! And 777-9 must be a contender also.

All of this suggests BA are looking to 'right size' every route...having an optimum aircraft available no matter what the route. And they are probably big enough to do that. I still wonder could the A350s end up at Iberia though.

Of course, if oil stays low in the long term (and I have no idea if that could happen) then the pressure to release 744s or 772s might reduce a little.

So my guess?

787-8
787-9
787-10
777-9
A380

with 744 and 772 gradually running down. Possibly a few top-up A380s also, but not many.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:44 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I was curious to know what people think the BA fleet will look like in say the next decade or so

Probably in a new livery that will light up a.net for two months of heated debate and a tracking thread of painted aircraft.
 
vv701
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 7:00 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
Over the last ten odd years the airline has run quite a simple Long Haul fleet of 777-200ERs and the 747-400's, with the odd the 767-300ER covering the thinner routes.

In recent years the fleet seems to be getting more complex

The current fleet is more complex than seems at first glance.

The 772s are not all ERs. Three are 772As (G-ZZZA to 'ZC). These aircraft have a bigger F Class cabin (17 seats) than any other aircraft in BA's fleet. Of course they also have a shorter range than the ERs. So they are dedicated to operate short long-haul routes to both the Middle East and the Eastern Seaboard of North America.

Many of the 772ERs are configured for three classes (J, W and Y). Many others also have an F Class cabin. Some have an overhead crew rest area, others do not. Four have a slightly higher density seating configuration, are permanently LGW based and primarily operate on Caribbean and Florida holiday routes. Finally some BA's 772ERs are GE powered while others have Rolls Royce engines.

There are effectively four fleets of 744s. One operates in 'Mid J' configuration with 52 J Class seats. Another operates in a 'Hi J' configuration with 70 J Class seats. Many now operate with the New F Class cabins while a small number are slated to have their current Old F Cabins updated to the New F product. However a small fleet operates to CPT, LAS, PHX and YVR with the old F Class cabin where the seats are never sold as F Class. These aircraft will not have their F Cabin refurbished. Finally four are what Boeing describes as 747 400 Lites, namely G-CIVF to 'VI. These aircraft do not have a connected tail fuel tank and do have an extra row of Y Class seats. So their range is shorter trhan the rest of NA's 744s. They also have a lower registered maximum take-off weight (381,017 kg) than the rest of the (non-Lite) BA 744 fleet (396,893 kg).

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I might have only imagined this and but I am sure I read somewhere the 777-300ERs are leased and only intended to stay in the fleet for 5-10 years until the newer the generation aircraft arrived... Is this correct?


The BA 77W fleet came into being as a stop-gap to cover for the late delivery of the 787. Four aircraft were leased in a three-way arrangement (BA, GECAS and Boeing) to obtain more favourable delivery positions. Of the six aircraft ordered by BA in this initial 77W deal two aircraft were ordered and bought by BA. They (G-STBA and 'BF) are therefore carry the BA Boeing '36' designator and are Boeing 777 336ERs. The other four (G-STBB to 'BE) had already been ordered by GECAS. They therefore carry the GECAS designation ('6N') and are Boeing 777 36NERs.

The 77W proved to be a success in the BA fleet. So a further six were subsequently obtained. Again four were leased and two bought. It was announced that the last two of these four leased aircraft were contracted for on a ten-year lease. (I am unaware of any comment made by BA as to the length of the lease on any of the other BA 77Ws.) However on past form there is a chance that BA will negotiate a lease extension.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:18 pm

My take:

787-8
787-9
787-10
A350-900?
A350-1000
747-400?
777-9
A380-800?
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29erUSA187
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:46 pm

IMO, the fleet will have changed a little bit, but not too much.

A318 (Maybe an order for a few more for LCY-BOS, LCY-IAD etc)
A319
A319neo (Replacing the original A319's)
A320
A320neo (Replacing the original A320's)
A321
A321neo (Replacing the original A321's
A350-1000 (Replacing the 744's and the early 772's. Somehow I don't see them taking their additional options)
A380-800
747-400 (On their way out, but Ill bet well see these guys around for another 10-15 years)
777-200ER (Also on their way out, but they'll stick around a while)
777-300ER
777-8X (Replacing the 777-200's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)
777-9X (Replacing the 777-300ER's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)
787-8
787-9
787-10 (Replacing the 777's and maybe used for expansion?)

I wish BA would stop this Airbus heavy trend and order some more boeings.

737MAX Order?   
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:47 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 8):
IMO, the fleet will have changed a little bit, but not too much.

A318 (Maybe an order for a few more for LCY-BOS, LCY-IAD etc)
A319
A319neo (Replacing the original A319's)
A320
A320neo (Replacing the original A320's)
A321
A321neo (Replacing the original A321's
A350-1000 (Replacing the 744's and the early 772's. Somehow I don't see them taking their additional options)
A380-800
747-400 (On their way out, but Ill bet well see these guys around for another 10-15 years)
777-200ER (Also on their way out, but they'll stick around a while)
777-300ER
777-8X (Replacing the 777-200's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)
777-9X (Replacing the 777-300ER's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)
787-8
787-9
787-10 (Replacing the 777's and maybe used for expansion?)

I wish BA would stop this Airbus heavy trend and order some more boeings.

737MAX Order?

Phew! Where do I start?!

I generally agree with this. If the C-Series delivers on range, they could replace the A318s.

The A320neo members will all replace their respected "ceo" counterparts.

The A350-1000s can replace the 747-400 and some 777-200ERs in some markets. The A350-900 is also a viable 777-200 replacement.

The 747-400 themselves will seemingly hold out into the 2020s, depending on which frames.

The A380, to me, is vulnerable. BA will only operate 12 with no possibility as of yet on more orders. These last into the 2020s, but I expect these A380s won't live out their usefulness at BA. With the prospect of supertwins coming online in only a few years, I imagine those will be a threat as well.

The 777-200ERs will be replaced by the A350-1000 and 787-10.

The 777-300ERs are here to stay.

I have interesting assumptions about the 777X
I realized a small fleet of 777-8s could work for BA, specifically along the Kangaroo Route and to Southeast Asia (HKG, KUL etc.) and Oceania.
The 777-9 replaces the 747-400s better. Since the A350-1000 also assumes the role of 744 replacement at BA, this segment could be shared by the two planes. The 777-9 can also replace the 777-300ERs later on.

All 787 models will operate for BA.

There will be no MAX order. The closest you'll get is the Comair South Africa order.

[Edited 2014-11-15 15:55:09]
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:50 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 6):
The 772s are not all ERs. Three are 772As (G-ZZZA to 'ZC). These aircraft have a bigger F Class cabin (17 seats) than any other aircraft in BA's fleet

Interesting that they send them for instance to PHL, not a city you associate with a big F demand.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:59 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 9):

Why 778s to HKG when they could use a 789 and they already use an A380.

You maybe right on the A380 personally they will stay with BA for atleast 15 years though probably 20/25.

I see all 787 versions 35Js, 380s long term probably some 779s to with the 744, 772, 77W fleet still for 10-15 years 744s 10 current 777s 15.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:09 am

I really think a BA 778 order is just a pipe dream - when have BA shown a propensity for UULR flying?

I also imagine the A388 fleet will grow by a handful as the 744s wind down.

The A351 is the odd one out however...why exactly did BA order this? I suppose until the launch of the 77X program there wasn't the option to buy that instead, but now the option exists (and BA have expressed interest). I too could see the A350s all being transferred to IB.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:05 am

Quoting andy33 (Reply 1):

I can answer the one about the long haul 767s. Only 4 are planned to survive 2015, and they'll all be gone during 2016

Any idea on what routes these 4 767s would be used on?? Very small fleet so I doubt it will be many routes.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:20 am

I can't imagine BA with no 747's! I love seeing her and boarding her. I am happy that they are investing in a handful so I can squeek out a few more trips for 5 more years!

Which aircraft do we see being painted in a new livery? Sadly not a 7478, but perhaps the 779? I have never been that fond of the "World Tails" left over. BA should have a sleek but very classy image ala: the Landor livery (yes, perhaps I am biased)
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:47 am

Quoting divemaster08 (Reply 13):
Any idea on what routes these 4 767s would be used on??

The current scheduled BA long-haul 763 flights are:

LHR-ALA (BA159)
LHR-BWI (BA229)
LHR-CAI (BA135)
LHR-EBB (BA063)
LHR-NAS (BA253)
LHR-PHL (BA069)
LHR-YYC (BA103)

with YYC likely to revert to a 787 service very soon now that the modification of BAs first four &*&s at VCV is complete.
 
Andy33
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:34 pm

Quoting divemaster08 (Reply 13):
Any idea on what routes these 4 767s would be used on?? Very small fleet so I doubt it will be many routes

For several years now there have been 14 763s in long-haul configuration. The arrival of the 788s saw 6 of these withdrawn. A 7th one should go once BA is satisfied with 788 availability following the mods VV701 mentions. As the 789s start arriving in Q3 2015 a further rearrangement in which aircraft does what should allow another 3 763s to depart.
BA frequently allocate different aircraft types to different flights on the same route, the most extreme example being LHR-DME which manages a 744, a 772 and an A321 on the same day, and has had 763s in the recent past, while CAI has had both 744s and A321s before the current 763. Traffic levels will determine where the last survivors operate.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 8):
A318 (Maybe an order for a few more for LCY-BOS, LCY-IAD etc)
A319
A319neo (Replacing the original A319's)
A320
A320neo (Replacing the original A320's)
A321
A321neo (Replacing the original A321's
A350-1000 (Replacing the 744's and the early 772's. Somehow I don't see them taking their additional options)
A380-800
747-400 (On their way out, but Ill bet well see these guys around for another 10-15 years)
777-200ER (Also on their way out, but they'll stick around a while)
777-300ER
777-8X (Replacing the 777-200's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)
777-9X (Replacing the 777-300ER's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)
787-8
787-9
787-10 (Replacing the 777's and maybe used for expansion?)

I wish BA would stop this Airbus heavy trend and order some more boeings.

737MAX Order?

I think you need to appreciate that the purchase decisions are made by IAG, not BA and part of their declared strategy is to make it possible to move aircraft about between their 3 fleets (BA, IB and VY) at very short notice as opportunities and traffic demands change. By the time the first 737-MAX is delivered to the launch customer, BA's last 734 will be parked in the desert and the type certifications for pilots, cabin crew, and engineers will have expired. So there would be a huge cost in introducing the type across all three fleets, when it offers no real advantage over what they already have on order, which is A320 series ceo and neo. No -MAX in the foreseeable future.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:58 pm

Quoting andy33 (Reply 16):
I think you need to appreciate that the purchase decisions are made by IAG, not BA and part of their declared strategy is to make it possible to move aircraft about between their 3 fleets (BA, IB and VY) at very short notice as opportunities and traffic demands change. By the time the first 737-MAX is delivered to the launch customer, BA's last 734 will be parked in the desert and the type certifications for pilots, cabin crew, and engineers will have expired. So there would be a huge cost in introducing the type across all three fleets, when it offers no real advantage over what they already have on order, which is A320 series ceo and neo. No -MAX in the foreseeable future.

I think with the A320neo's on order and some of these earmarked for BA use, it's safe to assume the 737MAX is out of the question. IB and VY have no 737s in their fleet and BA will, as you say, soon have no 737s at all, so although stranger things have happened, it doesn't stack up to order 737MAX's.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:31 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 8):
A319neo (Replacing the original A319's)

I think the A319s will be replaced by A320neos, the A319neo really is not a lot cheaper to operate, and with low resale possibly even more expensive in yearly cost (higher depreciation).

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 8):
777-8X (Replacing the 777-200's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)
777-9X (Replacing the 777-300ER's and some 747's. Plus maybe expansion?)

With the A350-1000 already on order, there is no way the 777-8 will be in BA colors. The 777-9 is very doubtful as well, I don't see a business case IMHO.

It depends on the final 744 replacement, in 2013 Willie Walsh said the 744 replacement was completed with the order for 18 787s and 18 A350-1000s. Later however, he said BA still had 25 744s to replace by 2019... I personally think the replacement plans of those are already complete, but if I'm wrong we could see 779s. Personally I believe Boeing waited too long granting ATO to offer the 777X. Airbus took advantage and smartly sold BA the A350-1000 in 2013, bye bye Boeing 777X.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:39 pm

There's not a great need to speculate on the next 5 years or so, because it is all laid out in the IAG Capital Markets presentation. As mentioned right back in Reply 1:

Quoting andy33 (Reply 1):
Go to 2014 Capital Markets Day and look at slide 16, showing the fleet plans for the combined IAG group to the end of 2015.

IAG shows 68 orders and options for A350s and 60 delivered, orders and options for B787s, so those look to be solidly the backbone of the "long-haul new generation" fleet.

They go on (Slide 78) to make a big point about the financial benefits of replacing 3 744s with 2 A380s on the LAX route (+5% premium ASKs, -7% non-premium ASKs giving 1% less seats at 20% less trip cost). Seems to me to indicate that they like putting the A380 on the busiest routes rather than any lack of confidence in it (noting that they have also slightly accelerated one A380 delivery). I expect some (but not lots) more A380s to arrive beyond the current firm 12.

They also talk a lot about driving commonality between fleets (primarily referring to the BA/IB/IBx/VY A320 fleets) and how they now start configuring all aircraft "assuming maximum density & minimum weight and deviate only when there is strong revenue case" - so expect short-haul (and possibly long-haul Y) to be as cramped as possible going forward. If you read the presentation, you would conclude that it is pretty unlikely the 737MAX will appear anywhere in the IAG family (and I'm not convinced many, if any, A319neos will be bought given the emphasis on comparing CASKs with FR, U2 and DY).

So, to me, the only real question is whether the 779 will get a foothold in the IAG fleet - everything else seems pretty locked down out to 10-15 years.
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na
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:46 pm

In ten years, 2024, I expect:
the last dozen 744s and the remaining 77Es are close to retirement, the leased 77Ws are being phased out as well. First A380neos will join the fleet to replace the last 744s, and the sub-A380 longhaul fleet will be in transition to all 787/A350.
777s are a thing of the past as Airbus has announced a A350neo to debut about 2030.

In fifteen years, 2029 I expect the longhaul fleet to look like this:
All 744s, 777s and 788s will be gone, replaced by 787-9/-10s, A350s and A380neos, the latter perhaps in the form of A380-900s. The 787-9 will the most common longhaul plane in BAs fleet. Second generation A350-1000s with upgraded engines are ordered as well as new A380s to replace the older ones in the early 2030s.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 3:53 pm

I think we will see the 77W fleet last longer than some have predicted above. They have 12 in service and 2 more on order for delivery in 2015, and have indicated publicly their satisfaction with the 77W, and in one quote I recall but can't source now that "they wish they had bought more, and earlier".

I could even see BA ordering a few more 77W's, and I predict the leased aircraft will remain in the fleet as long as the purchased aircraft. Even with the refurb of some of the newer 744s, the 77W fleet should outlast the 744 fleet with BA.

BA does not roll its fleet rapidly and hence LH aircraft delivered in 2015 may likely still be in service in 2035.
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Andy33
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 4:19 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 21):
I think we will see the 77W fleet last longer than some have predicted above. They have 12 in service and 2 more on order for delivery in 2015

There are no 77Ws on order. The most recent two were delivered within the last 6 months - you may have been looking at a fleet summary that hadn't been updated recently enough to reflect this.

[Edited 2014-11-16 08:23:24]
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 4:43 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 18):
It depends on the final 744 replacement, in 2013 Willie Walsh said the 744 replacement was completed with the order for 18 787s and 18 A350-1000s. Later however, he said BA still had 25 744s to replace by 2019... I personally think the replacement plans of those are already complete, but if I'm wrong we could see 779s. Personally I believe Boeing waited too long granting ATO to offer the 777X. Airbus took advantage and smartly sold BA the A350-1000 in 2013, bye bye Boeing 777X.

Those remaining 25 744s can be replaced with a mix of additional 787s and A350s. Remember, IAG still has 18 more A350 and 18 more 787 options for BA.
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yyz717
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:23 pm

Quoting andy33 (Reply 22):
There are no 77Ws on order. The most recent two were delivered within the last 6 months - you may have been looking at a fleet summary that hadn't been updated recently enough to reflect this.

You may be right. My source is atdb.org which is usually very accurate. It shows 12 in service and 2 more on order for 2015 delivery. Whichever is correct, the 77W fleet could be around for another 20 years, as small as it is.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 23):
Those remaining 25 744s can be replaced with a mix of additional 787s and A350s. Remember, IAG still has 18 more A350 and 18 more 787 options for BA.

Or the 777X. The 351 order does not preclude a 777X order.
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na
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:29 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 24):
Or the 777X. The 351 order does not preclude a 777X order.

Well, BA did not feel a 748 order necessary to fill the huge gap between 77W and A380. So why should they not think the same about the gap between A380 and A350-1000? Also, with the 777X the 777 will be at the end of its development, while the A350 has just begun.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:49 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 24):
You may be right. My source is atdb.org which is usually very accurate. It shows 12 in service and 2 more on order for 2015 delivery. Whichever is correct, the 77W fleet could be around for another 20 years, as small as it is.

I agree atdb does say that, however the company itself (or rather its parent IAG) produced an information pack last week which I linked to in post #1 which shows no 777s of any variety on order or available as unexercised options. As this pack was designed for investors, it is required to be accurate or there are serious legal consequences for the directors personally...
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:56 pm

Here's the slide:

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2h4m4j8.jpg
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yyz717
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:53 pm

Quoting na (Reply 25):
Well, BA did not feel a 748 order necessary to fill the huge gap between 77W and A380. So why should they not think the same about the gap between A380 and A350-1000?

The 777X comes much later than the 748, hence when the BA 744 fleet is 10yrs older and more in need of replacement. Also, the 777X is closer in capacity to the 744 than the 351, and might be a better 744 replacement, given the slot shortage at LHR that will not be solved anytime soon, and likely continued market growth between now and 2020.

Quoting na (Reply 25):
Also, with the 777X the 777 will be at the end of its development, while the A350 has just begun.

That's irrelevant if the 777X is more efficient or capable than the 351 for BA's needs. Recall EK just cancelled a 350 order, and placed a 777X order -- they seem to be not concerned that the 777 is "at the end of its development", and neither does LH, CX, EY, QR or ANA
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:20 pm

I don't see any way BA doesn't end up with more than a dozen A380s. There are just too many routes that can use the capacity.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:37 pm

Quoting na (Reply 25):

Well, BA did not feel a 748 order necessary to fill the huge gap between 77W and A380. So why should they not think the same about the gap between A380 and A350-1000?

I feel the 748 was rejected on its own (lack of) merits. WW made it pretty clear there was absolutely no interest in the type. I feel the 777W will be a different story. Two engines instead of four, a state of the art CFRP wing, super efficiency because the industry is (sadly) accepting 10 across in Y, next generation engines, more up-lift than A350-1000, all coming on line just as 744s are (finally) winding down sounds like an enticing proposition, IMHO.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:07 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 30):
I feel the 748 was rejected on its own (lack of) merits. WW made it pretty clear there was absolutely no interest in the type. I feel the 777W will be a different story. Two engines instead of four, a state of the art CFRP wing, super efficiency because the industry is (sadly) accepting 10 across in Y, next generation engines, more up-lift than A350-1000, all coming on line just as 744s are (finally) winding down sounds like an enticing proposition, IMHO.

They have enough 777W's already to make up there own mind on that aircraft.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:11 am

If Bombardier holds up, I think we'll see CS100s out of LCY. Aside from JFK, BOS and IAD (or DCA if perimeter exceptions can be made for the special relationship) could probably sustain an all-J LCY service. On top of that CS100 could really maximise the utilisation of LCY for London O/D traffic.

Beyond that. I agree that there won't be a switch from the A320 to the 737. It'll be 320NEOs. Boeing would really have to make a spectacular offer to turn this. Then again, they could pull an Air Canada.

On the widebody side, I don't see the -8 numbers growing much. Ditto for the -9. I think the 77E replacement gets split. -10 for less premium heavy routes. And 35J for more premium routes. Ditto at the widebody top end. 779 for less premium heavy routes. And 380 for more premium routes.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:10 am

Quoting na (Reply 20):
777s are a thing of the past as Airbus has announced a A350neo to debut about 2030.

Predicting the offering/capabilities of the successor, to an aircraft that itself hasn't even yet entered service, is purely-imaginative speculation at this point.


Quoting na (Reply 25):
Well, BA did not feel a 748 order necessary

Nor did just about any other airline.  

Quoting Revelation (Reply 30):
I feel the 748 was rejected on its own (lack of) merits

   The 747 is the fading remnant of a bygone era, and most airlines have recognized it as such.

[Edited 2014-11-16 17:14:28]
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:14 am

Quoting Johnwaynebobbet (Reply 31):
They have enough 777W's already to make up there own mind on that aircraft.

It's pretty clear that was supposed to be a reference to the 77X.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:41 am

Quoting kd5mdk (Reply 34):
Quoting Johnwaynebobbet (Reply 31):
They have enough 777W's already to make up there own mind on that aircraft.

It's pretty clear that was supposed to be a reference to the 77X.

Or possibly the 777X. Regards. -ir
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:00 am

I suppose they will order more A380s eventually????? They had 57 B747-400s and 12 A380s+7 options might not be enough. Maybe up to 30?
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:54 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 36):
I suppose they will order more A380s eventually????? They had 57 B747-400s and 12 A380s+7 options might not be enough. Maybe up to 30?

If you look at the 57 and go 1:1 across the types (we assume right-sizing to boost yields). Deducting the 12 A380s leaves 45 aircraft to replace. Deduct a further 18 A350s and that's 27 left to replace. If you assume they exercise the 7 A380 options, that leaves an order of 20 779s or more A350s. It's actually 8 aircraft if you consider the 77Ws. But I highly doub the 77Ws stay in this future mix.

Personally, I think the A350s go to IB or they are considered more of a premium 77E replacement and don't get counted as part of the 747 replacement plan. In which case we'll see an order for ~40 779s eventually.

I do think you're right and that BA probably will end up ordering more A380s. But I think it'll be closer to 20 A380s and 40 779s eventually. How many routes can really support routing A380 service for BA beyond the half dozen they have today?
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:57 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 37):
Deducting the 12 A380s leaves 45 aircraft to replace. Deduct a further 18 A350s and that's 27 left to replace.

They also have 787-10 aircraft on order for 744 replacement.

Quoting ytz (Reply 37):
Personally, I think the A350s go to IB

No, IB will get the -900s. The A350-1000s are meant for BA.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:07 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 37):
But I think it'll be closer to 20 A380s and 40 779s eventually.

If you look at the IAG fleet statistics slide in reply 27 you'll see that by the end of next year IAG will have 158 active longhaul aircraft and 132 outstanding orders and options - a gap of 26 frames between current fleet and planned/potential replacements.

Take out of the mix 23 recently acquired/soon to arrive A380s and 788s which are unlikely to be replaced in the foreseeable future and that gap is only 3 frames. Even allowing for the fact that all the options may not be exercised and allowing for some growth I think it would be something of a miracle if BA end up with anything like 40 779s - if indeed any.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:18 pm

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 39):
Even allowing for the fact that all the options may not be exercised and allowing for some growth I think it would be something of a miracle if BA end up with anything like 40 779s - if indeed any.

I said eventually. No where near the timeframe of this forecast. They are going to have exercise a lot of A350 options or get 779s at some point. I'm thinking 779s are a better replacement. But they may well be A350s.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:03 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 36):
I suppose they will order more A380s eventually?????
BA has stated in the recent past that they don't see a need for more than 12 388's. If this holds, the bulk of the 744 fleet will be replaced by the 781, 351, and possibly the 779.

Along with the 788, 789, 772ER and 77W, the BA LH fleet will certainly be motley, compared to the simplified 744/772/763 we've seen for most of the last 20 years.



[Edited 2014-11-17 09:20:17]
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:19 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 24):
Or the 777X. The 351 order does not preclude a 777X order.

It doesn''t, but BA's old long-haul fleet comprised just three types - 767s, 777s and 747s. I just don't see them replacing three types with four, so my take would be that the long-term long-haul fleet will comprise 787s, A350s and A380s.

The 77W will leave the fleet, IMHO. Most of them are leased and they were only ever intended as 'interim lift'.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:23 pm

Wouldn't the 767's stick around to fly the shuttle flights over the kingdom?
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:24 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 42):
It doesn''t, but BA's old long-haul fleet comprised just three types - 767s, 777s and 747s. I just don't see them replacing three types with four, so my take would be that the long-term long-haul fleet will comprise 787s, A350s and A380s.

The 2-runway situation at LHR (with no 3rd runway in sight for 10+ years) suggests larger aircraft will be needed by BA since additional LH slots will be few, if any. This suggests to me that the 779 will be needed since it is larger than the 351.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 42):
The 77W will leave the fleet, IMHO. Most of them are leased and they were only ever intended as 'interim lift'.

The 77W is so much more efficient than the 744, I think the 77W will outlast the 744 in the BA fleet. Whether leased or owned, there is no need to replace the 77W fleet anytime in the next 10-15 years.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:31 pm

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 43):
Wouldn't the 767's stick around to fly the shuttle flights over the kingdom?

The IAG plan says short-haul 767 gone by 2018 replaced by A320 series - see Reply 27.
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:54 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 41):
BA has stated in the recent past that they don't see a need for more than 12 388's. If this holds, the bulk of the 744 fleet will be replaced by the 781, 351, and possibly the 779.

The same BA that have also allegedly criticised the "Emiratisation" of the 777X? Don't get me wrong, I think the 779 would work well, but will the capacity gap between the A35J and the A380 be big enough to justify an order?

At the very least, I can see BA eventually taking up their options on the A380 and it wouldn't surprise me if they eventually get put on a JFK rotation. As somebody else has mentioned, there isn't going to be a plethora of slots at LHR any time soon and if VS decide to withdraw from one or two more destinations in favour of other destinations there's a potential capacity gap to fill.
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:09 pm

BA started down the 744 route in August 1986 when they ordered their first sixteen of the type. At that time BA had a fleet of 14 741s (having sold two to TW in March 1981) and sixteen 742s.


'By that time . . . the airline's commercial department was demanding aircraft which could operate much longer non-stop routes such as between Heathrow and Bangkok, Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo year-round with a full passenger load.'


The above is a direct quote from:


Gaskell, Keith. 'British Airways - Its History, Aircraft and Liveries'. Airlife Publishing, Shrewsbury, 1999, p. 42


At that time what alternative was there to buying the 744 to meet this need or, indeed other needs for long-haul aircraft?

Although deliveries of the 744 from that order started in the summer of 1989, no BA 747 Classic was retired between the date of that order (August '86) and more than ten years later. Apart from the two sold to TW and two written off, 741 G-AWNB was the first of BA's Classic 747s to be retired on 31 August 1998.

If we look at BA's subsequent orders we will find that BA ordered the 767 (primarily as a replacement for the L-1011 TriStar particularly on high density short-haul routes like LHR to CDG). The next BA order for a new type was for five 772As and ten 772ERs in August 1991.

The remaining twelve 747 136s all remained in service until 31 August 1998 when G-AWNB was the first to be withdrawn from use. All were retired by the end of Summer Season 1999. Then the last five were withdrawn from use on 30 October following another single frame retired the day before. Although this was a period when BA was still taking delivery of the 744, if we look at the deliveries and 741 retirements on a one-for-one basis many of these retired aircraft were effectively being replaced by newly delivered, smaller 772ERs. So any perception that an aircraft of a similar size is required to replace existing aircraft has proved to be wrong in the past.

The size of the BA 747 fleet and in particular their 744 fleet (that was and today still is the wold's largest) always gets it singled out for attention. But here it is worth noting that the current size of their 777 fleet (772A + 772ER + 77W) at 58 is actually one above the size of their 744 fleet at its zenith. And there are quite a few BA 777s that are older and have flown more hours than some of their less aged 744s.

Since the launch of the 744 there has been an accelerating number of different options of long-haul, wide-bodied aircraft. Additionally single isled aircraft such as the B 757 and the A 318 and even BA's Mid-haul configured A 321s are effective alternatives for niche longer-haul operations.

Of course many of us will have a view on what individual airlines might order in the future. But with all of today's options the only people likely to get it 100 per cent right are those making specific proposals to their airline's management. And even then . . . But this is not a reason for not having threads like this one.  
 
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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:09 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 41):
BA has stated in the recent past that they don't see a need for more than 12 388's

  

WW said he was of the opinion 12 was an appropriate number for now.

The constraints of LHR are not going anywhere in the short term, i.e. in the next decade, and other airports on the BA network will start to encounter similar constraints.

Future planning, I fully expect IAG's options to be exercised and further options, possibly another 12 to be taken out, for acquisitions in the future.

Whilst some of the wish lists in this thread make entertaining reading, I am doubtful BA under IAG would ever consider diversifying into such a broad fleet base.

Accordingly, I see only a need for the Dreamliner, A350 and A380.

Whilst WW has acknowledged the B777X could be a fine frame for BA, it does not preclude there being something better or more optimised if the carrier can focus on a streamlined, optimum, 3 type long haul fleet.

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RE: BA's Long Haul Fleet Look Like In 10-15yrs...

Mon Nov 17, 2014 11:23 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 48):
WW said he was of the opinion 12 was an appropriate number for now

I don't expect BA to act on those options. It seems like 12 is a good number and serves the cities they fly to well.

Now, if Airbus does create the A380neo and BA wants to continue using the aircraft, those 12 could be replaced by Neos, but at this point in time, I don't think BA will order any more A380s than they have now. 12 is a great number. The options could be converted to a few A350s to assist with 777/747 replacements.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 18):
Airbus took advantage and smartly sold BA the A350-1000 in 2013, bye bye Boeing 777X.

  

So explain to me why the 777X is immediately disqualified from an airline that has the A350-1000 on order. It seems like a silly idea. I know some people don't like the 777X but that's just not good business in the real world to overlook things. That's a pretty large gap BA would be leaving in between the A35J and A380.


Quoting Boeing74741R (Reply 46):
The same BA that have also allegedly criticised the "Emiratisation" of the 777X? Don't get me wrong, I think the 779 would work well, but will the capacity gap between the A35J and the A380 be big enough to justify an order?

I think it would be. The A380s currently seat 469. The A350-1000s are, I'm assuming, going to be three class frames, which would seat around 350 according to Airbus.

Boeing has the 777-9 at 407 seats in a three class configuration. That would put the 777-9 comfortably between the A350-1000 and A380-800 by a margin of at least 50 seats.

Of course, how BA sets up their seating configuration on the aircraft in question is anyone's guess. I'm just toying around with preliminary data, but it seems like the 777-9 could work for BA to replace the final 747-400s later on. The 2020-25 long haul fleet that looks like this seems nicely spaced.

787-8
787-9
787-10
777-300ER
A350-1000
777-9
A380

However, I don't know how the A380 would be fairing at that time. Same with the 777-300ER. Suppose both aircraft were retired in the early 2020s.

That would leave BA with a simpler 3 type fleet with no overlaps.
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