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CALMSP
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:57 am

Quoting freshside3 (Reply 100):

why "should" they?
 
jlbmedia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:23 am

How long does Delta have to fly PHL-LHR before they can transfer the slot to another US city?
JLB54061
 
jetlanta
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:25 am

Quoting freshside3 (Reply 100):
Without question, it's defintely is a waste of slots. I can see a 757 in some "niche" markets, such as BDL-LHR, or EWR-ORK, and the like.......But everything from the largest US markets to the largest European markets should be wide-bodies.

Are BA's narrowbodies at LHR also a waste of slots?
 
Viscount724
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:40 am

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 103):
Are BA's narrowbodies at LHR also a waste of slots?

No, because a high percentage of passengers on the shorthaul narrowbodies are feeding the longhaul widebodies.
 
anstar
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:12 am

Quoting factsonly (Reply 94):
While DL happily operates B763 on EWR-AMS and EWR-CDG, while DL/VS operates A333 on EWR-LHR.

That is 3x daily widebodies from a competitor's hub in Winter!

DL will also be taking over one of the 2 x VS EWR-LHR frequencies next summer (VS will also add another JFK rotation).

Quoting freshside3 (Reply 99):
Without question, it's defintely is a waste of slots.

Not a waste if you are getting them from your competitor.
 
jetsetter629
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:14 pm

Confirmed that AA will start a daylight flight from PHL to LHR - making it 4 daily on AA/BA

http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...ladelphia-london-flights/19478741/

PHL-LHR 0955-2210 752 D
LHR-PHL 0820-1155 752 D
 
commavia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:20 pm

Quoting jetsetter629 (Reply 105):
Confirmed that AA will start a daylight flight from PHL to LHR - making it 4 daily on AA/BA

http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...ladelphia-london-flights/19478741/

PHL-LHR 0955-2210 752 D
LHR-PHL 0820-1155 752 D

Cool - smart move. AA/BA already had a comprehensive schedule between PHL and LHR - far more extensive than Delta would ever have - and this just makes it that much stronger. Believe this will mark the first time PHL has ever had a daylight eastbound departure to Europe, and also make PHL only the sixth U.S. airport (after JFK, EWR, BOS, IAD and ORD) to sustain a daylight flight to LHR/Europe.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:23 pm

How long does DL need to operate this route before they can convert that LHR slot for any-usage ?
 
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hufftheweevil
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:38 pm

Quoting jetsetter629 (Reply 105):

Confirmed that AA will start a daylight flight from PHL to LHR - making it 4 daily on AA/BA

http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...ladelphia-london-flights/19478741/

PHL-LHR 0955-2210 752 D
LHR-PHL 0820-1155 752 D

Wow...so we'll have 5 frequencies PHL-LHR, totaling over 1000 seats/day. Can this really be sustained in the long run?
Huff
 
usairways85
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:46 pm

Quoting hufftheweevil (Reply 108):
Wow...so we'll have 5 frequencies PHL-LHR, totaling over 1000 seats/day. Can this really be sustained in the long run?

From a BA/AA perspective they should be able to fill these seats. Remember this is a major OW route. US/LH sustained 3 daily to FRA, plus *A feed to ZRH, LIS, BRU. If you reroute some of that previous *A feed to route through LHR and a lesser extent MAD then you would expect the PHL-LHR market to grow.
 
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phlsfo
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:07 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 96):

According to some sources who work very close to the operation in PHL
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:29 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 109):
Remember this is a major OW route. US/LH sustained 3 daily to FRA, plus *A feed to ZRH, LIS, BRU.

That's exactly why I'm slightly skeptical that AA+US is still keeping 4x daily to FRA (DFW PHL CLT MIA, rumor to add JFK) after leaving Star and losing 95% of their FRA-end feed. (DL can sustain 3x daily to FRA because they have some meaningful auto traffic to DTW and the Southeast via ATL. The only AA+US hub with this type of traffic is CLT.)

Posters simultaneously claim that (1) most transfer traffic will migrate to LHR+MAD, and (2) FRA can sustain its capacity levels. Curious indeed.
 
commavia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:36 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 111):
That's exactly why I'm slightly skeptical that AA+US is still keeping 4x daily to FRA

I don't think 4x to FRA seems unreasonable at all seeing as all four of the hubs in question - DFW, MIA, CLT and PHL - arguably cater to not only distinct O&D markets, but also different connecting flows. Nonetheless, 4x daily to FRA is still down from the previous combined schedule of AA and USAirways at FRA - which was 5x daily (DFW, and 2 each from CLT and PHL). I think cutting frequency in the market by 20%, and capacity by more than that, seems to make sense.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 111):
FRA can sustain its capacity levels

I don't think anybody ever suggested that FRA could sustain its previous levels of capacity from AA/USAirways - and indeed net-net the "new AA" will in fact be down materially in capacity at FRA compared with the past, as 2 daily A330s were dropped between CLT/PHL and FRA and replaced with a single AA 763 to MIA.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:15 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 112):
Nonetheless, 4x daily to FRA is still down from the previous combined schedule of AA and USAirways at FRA - which was 5x daily (DFW, and 2 each from CLT and PHL). I think cutting frequency in the market by 20%, and capacity by more than that, seems to make sense.
Quoting commavia (Reply 112):
as 2 daily A330s were dropped between CLT/PHL and FRA and replaced with a single AA 763 to MIA.

IIRC one of the 2 CLT flights were summer seasonal ? So winter capacity is only down very slightly (switching PHL 330 to MIA 763), a lot less than the "20%" you're quoting.

Regardless of the flow traffic uniqueness at each of the hubs, the math doesn't add up if you lose 95+% feed at one-end of a route and expect volumes and yields to remain largely intact.

My gut feeling is that either (1) 3x daily FRA or (2) downgauge PHL to 752 and CLT to 762/763 is much closer to equilibrium.
 
nc3rd
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:24 pm

How is AA allowed to operate this flight? I thought they had to give it up with the EU settlement.
The views written above are mine and mine alone and do not represent any official information from any airline or company
 
commavia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:26 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 113):
a lot less than the "20%" you're quoting

To be clear - again - I said frequency was down 20%. Capacity is down more than 20%.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 113):
Regardless of the flow traffic uniqueness at each of the hubs, the math doesn't add up if you lose 95+% feed at one-end of a route and expect volumes and yields to remain largely intact.

First off, do you have a source for AA losing "95+% feed?" Secondly, while AA will lose feed, they will also gain some feed at the U.S. end of the route through the synergy of the combined network. Enough to make up for the loss of alliance connections at FRA? No, of course not, but then again that's why the reduction in flights and seats.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 113):
My gut feeling is that either (1) 3x daily FRA or (2) downgauge PHL to 752 and CLT to 762/763 is much closer to equilibrium.

Highly, highly doubt it. PHL is the larger European hub with the larger O&D market - I don't see that going to a 757. Frankly, I'm not sure why this is all that shocking that AA could support 4 daily flights to a market as large as FRA. Are they going to handle as much traffic as during the Lufthansa/Star days? No, of course not. But again - that's why AA is cutting frequency and capacity.
 
MAH4546
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:27 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 111):
(DL can sustain 3x daily to FRA because they have some meaningful auto traffic to DTW and the Southeast via ATL. The only AA+US hub with this type of traffic is CLT.)

Do you realize Miami-Frankfurt is the third most traveled local market between Germany and the United States after New York-Frankfurt and New York-Munich?
a.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:36 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 115):
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 113):
a lot less than the "20%" you're quoting

To be clear - again - I said frequency was down 20%. Capacity is down more than 20%.

Winter *frequency* is not down 20%. It is flat (PHL PHL CLT DFW before and PHL CLT DFW MIA future). Only summer is down 20%.

Quoting commavia (Reply 115):

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 113):
Regardless of the flow traffic uniqueness at each of the hubs, the math doesn't add up if you lose 95+% feed at one-end of a route and expect volumes and yields to remain largely intact.

First off, do you have a source for AA losing "95+% feed?" Secondly, while AA will lose feed, they will also gain some feed at the U.S. end of the route through the synergy of the combined network. Enough to make up for the loss of alliance connections at FRA? No, of course not, but then again that's why the reduction in flights and seats.

The US end feed is the same as pre-merger. The 95+% feed refers specifically to FRA only. What AB or AY offers at FRA is absolutely miniscule compared to what LH gave US.

Quoting commavia (Reply 115):
Frankly, I'm not sure why this is all that shocking that AA could support 4 daily flights to a market as large as FRA.

FRA is not that big a market. Out of the top 10 US-Europe routes, only 1 touches FRA, and it's the one AA doesn't serve. In comparison, AMS is only 10% smaller than FRA by pax volume, but AA+US only has 1x 752 going there.
 
usairways85
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 117):
Winter *frequency* is not down 20%. It is flat (PHL PHL CLT DFW before and PHL CLT DFW MIA future). Only summer is down 20%.

PHL-FRA operated 1x daily in the winter, had been for several years.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:44 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 116):
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 111):
(DL can sustain 3x daily to FRA because they have some meaningful auto traffic to DTW and the Southeast via ATL. The only AA+US hub with this type of traffic is CLT.)

Do you realize Miami-Frankfurt is the third most traveled local market between Germany and the United States after New York-Frankfurt and New York-Munich?

And your point is ? AA+US, being the largest airline in the world, doesn't serve the 2 largest US-Germany markets (and only 1x MUC vs. 4x FRA)

MUC has nearly the same total GDP as well as GDP per capita as FRA, so the "low yield" argument people love to throw around doesn't hold water at all.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 118):
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 117):
Winter *frequency* is not down 20%. It is flat (PHL PHL CLT DFW before and PHL CLT DFW MIA future). Only summer is down 20%.

PHL-FRA operated 1x daily in the winter, had been for several years.

I checked Oct'15 and it seems MIA-FRA is summer seasonal (ending 9/29/15) ?

So basically capacity is virtually flat in winter before and after - as if nothing has happened.
 
commavia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 117):
The 95+% feed refers specifically to FRA only.

Right, and where did that "95+% feed" statistic come from? There's more to feed than within-alliance codeshares. In addition to multiple codeshares onward to Europe and the Mid East, AA will no doubt continue to interline traffic over FRA - including plenty to/from Lufthansa - just as it has for years. Now, is the overall connection feed in FRA substantially smaller than it was when USAirways was in Star? Of course - it might even, in fact, be down 95%. I'd just be curious to see some substantiation for that.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 117):
What AB or AY offers at FRA is absolutely miniscule compared to what LH gave US.

Again - there's more to feed than within-alliance codeshares.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 117):
FRA is not that big a market. Out of the top 10 US-Europe routes, only 1 touches FRA, and it's the one AA doesn't serve. In comparison, AMS is only 10% smaller than FRA by pax volume, but AA+US only has 1x 752 going there.

FRA is a pretty big market. As big as LON or PAR? No. But it is a large market, and a large business market, since FRA (the city/metro, not the airport) is such an important commercial and financial hub.

I still don't understand why it is so unthinkable that AA can support four daily flights to FRA. As you say - Delta has three. I certainly agree that AA is going to have to work somewhat harder to profitably fill those flights - but again, that's where the overall strength of AA's larger, combined network should help, along with the fact that AA now flies to FRA from four different hubs that all cater to distinct O&D and connecting traffic.
 
MAH4546
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:55 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 119):
And your point is ? AA+US, being the largest airline in the world, doesn't serve the 2 largest US-Germany markets (and only 1x MUC vs. 4x FRA)

My point is you are rambling on and on about why Delta can fill three daily flights and you totally ignore important, relevant facts like how MIA-FRA is a larger local market than ATL-FRA+CLT combined.

You are constantly desperate for a reason why every single thing AA/US does won't work.

The world's largest airline having four daily flights to the third largest trans-Atlantic - and after London easily the least seasonal - is not crazy. AA has just as much capacity to Rome and well more to Paris, both with minimal feed at the European end.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 119):
I checked Oct'15 and it seems MIA-FRA is summer seasonal (ending 9/29/15) ?

It will likely operate in the winter months even though not currently loaded.

[Edited 2014-11-24 13:57:17]

[Edited 2014-11-24 13:57:41]

[Edited 2014-11-24 14:00:13]
a.
 
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pu
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:59 pm

Just to steer the thread back to Delta's PHL-LHR flight......

PHL is one of the top onward destinations for the VS/DL joint venture.

So all this talk about frequencies and market share is, as usual, straight out of the a.net conventional wisdom phrase book - which is mainly just repeating what someone else said or posted and without the insight that makes Delta by far the most profitable airline.

Thousands are already choosing to connect in a Delta domestic hub to get to PHL from London or vice versa. Guaranteed success? No. Implied success with lots of quantifiable evidence to support this flight? Very much so. It's only a 757: there are obviously just enough anti-BA fans, DL loyalists and VS customers who are already dissing nonstop service between LHR and PHL to justify attempting this new route.




Pu

[Edited 2014-11-24 14:01:19]
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:02 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 120):
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 117):
The 95+% feed refers specifically to FRA only.

Right, and where did that "95+% feed" statistic come from? There's more to feed than within-alliance codeshares. In addition to multiple codeshares onward to Europe and the Mid East, AA will no doubt continue to interline traffic over FRA - including plenty to/from Lufthansa - just as it has for years. Now, is the overall connection feed in FRA substantially smaller than it was when USAirways was in Star? Of course - it might even, in fact, be down 95%. I'd just be curious to see some substantiation for that.

It's just a guestimate, but if you ask me to gamble whether it's closer to 50% or closer to 95%, i'll bet on 95.

And please don't include meaningless interline traffic. That's like pretending UA has feed at LOS and AMS too.

Quoting commavia (Reply 120):


Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 117):
What AB or AY offers at FRA is absolutely miniscule compared to what LH gave US.

Again - there's more to feed than within-alliance codeshares.

Again, interline feed is as meaningless as anything imaginable. If an airline sells you an interline ticket to a destination reachable by JV, by code-share, or by same alliance, they deserve to be hosed, especially in the onward carrier isn't even a FF program partner.

I'd love to see AA sell me a DFW-FRA-MUC ticket instead of DFW-LHR-MUC.
 
incitatus
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:07 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 119):
MUC has nearly the same total GDP as well as GDP per capita as FRA, so the "low yield" argument people love to throw around doesn't hold water at all.

One got to be really careful with GDP comparisons. They are useful but they can be easily abused. FRA is not simply Frankfurt's airport. The trains from Stuttgart and Koln bring passengers directly into FRA in one hour. The catchment area of FRA easily beats that of MUC in GDP.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:22 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 121):

You are constantly desperate for a reason why every single thing AA/US does won't work.

Absolutely FALSE. I'm not interested in your grudges. I'm just curious why pre-merger and post-merger capacity can stay so flat to a destination that's clearly connections oriented.

When PMCO left Skyteam, I recall they had to make adjustments to their AMS and CDG flights. But you're saying AA+US defies gravity in this aspect.

The equivalent scenario would be a financial market artificially propped up by quantitative easing, and the govt decides to put the gravy train to a halting stop overnight, and expect the market to not react at all.

Quoting commavia (Reply 120):
I certainly agree that AA is going to have to work somewhat harder to profitably fill those flights -

That's exactly my point. Is that extra effort worth it, or is it diminishing returns and holding up capacity that could be deployed elsewhere with better potential returns.

Quoting commavia (Reply 120):
I still don't understand why it is so unthinkable that AA can support four daily flights to FRA. As you say - Delta has three.

Delta ones were built up organically over time (and a tiny bit of goodwill leftover from their FRA hub days). Can't say the same about PHL and CLT.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 121):
relevant facts like how MIA-FRA is a larger local market than ATL-FRA+CLT combined.

That's only slightly relevant since LH's A380 to MIA more than suffices to handle the local O&D. Both AA and LH would be dependent on connections on that route to make it work.

And I'm glad you finally learn how to type airports in XXX-YYY fashion instead of your usual "XXXYYY" mumbo jumbo.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:26 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 124):

One got to be really careful with GDP comparisons. They are useful but they can be easily abused. FRA is not simply Frankfurt's airport. The trains from Stuttgart and Koln bring passengers directly into FRA in one hour. The catchment area of FRA easily beats that of MUC in GDP.

True, but I'd imagine CGN leaks even more to DUS than to FRA ? And that's before accounting for the fact that CGN and STR has their own airports
 
commavia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:31 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 123):
It's just a guestimate, but if you ask me to gamble whether it's closer to 50% or closer to 95%, i'll bet on 95.

Okay, but there's a big difference between 50 and 95.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 123):
And please don't include meaningless interline traffic.
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 123):
Again, interline feed is as meaningless as anything imaginable.

I think there are plenty of airlines that would disagree with your characterization of non-alliance interline feed as "meaningless." Now, does it provide the same value and revenue contribution that it once did? No, of course not. But I definitely don't think it's meaningless. And not to mention - AA definitely does codeshare beyond FRA, as well - it's not just interline connections.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 125):
That's exactly my point. Is that extra effort worth it, or is it diminishing returns and holding up capacity that could be deployed elsewhere with better potential returns.

Well - I think we have our answer. Obviously AA itself - which would know far better than you or I - does think it's worth the effort.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 125):
Delta ones were built up organically over time (and a tiny bit of goodwill leftover from their FRA hub days). Can't say the same about PHL and CLT.

Huh? USAirways didn't organically build up PHL/CLT-FRA? They were flying both routes long before they were in Star.

Again - I guess the larger point is that I just don't see why it is so unthinkable that AA can't profitably fill four flights to FRA. I still don't understand why this is such a difficult think to imagine.
 
ldvaviation
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:38 pm

Quoting pu (Reply 122):
Thousands are already choosing to connect in a Delta domestic hub to get to PHL from London or vice versa.

Is that thousands on a daily or weekly basis? I would like to see proof of that...

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 125):
That's exactly my point. Is that extra effort worth it, or is it diminishing returns and holding up capacity that could be deployed elsewhere with better potential returns.

What extra effort? Your point remains unproven. Unless you can show us what the traffic mix is on all AA flights to FRA, you are just speculating.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:44 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 127):
Obviously AA itself - which would know far better than you or I - does think it's worth the effort.
Quoting commavia (Reply 127):

Again - I guess the larger point is that I just don't see why it is so unthinkable that AA can't profitably fill four flights to FRA. I still don't understand why this is such a difficult think to imagine.

History is filled with examples from all airlines where they thought it was the brightest strategy then flopped in no time. PMUS also thought running a bunch of CLT to secondary Europe was Einstein-smart, and that failed to last more than 1 summer.

What you're suggesting is never to challenge the decisions of the airline, since they're always smarter than us. I guess I should've believed in CLT-LIS or ORD-DME or EWR-IST or DTW-HKG too.
 
MAH4546
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:49 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 129):
History is filled with examples from all airlines where they thought it was the brightest strategy then flopped in no time. PMUS also thought running a bunch of CLT to secondary Europe was Einstein-smart, and that failed to last more than 1 summer.

Under PMUS cost structure and network, it might have lasted more than one summer. Under the combined network with new hubs in Dallas, Miami, Chicago and New York, it is entirely pointless.
a.
 
commavia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:00 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 129):
PMUS also thought running a bunch of CLT to secondary Europe was Einstein-smart, and that failed to last more than 1 summer.

Those second CLT-Europe markets have absolutely nothing to do with operating four daily flights from four huge U.S. megahubs to one of the largest and most important air travel markets in Europe.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 129):
What you're suggesting is never to challenge the decisions of the airline, since they're always smarter than us. I guess I should've believed in CLT-LIS or ORD-DME or EWR-IST or DTW-HKG too.

No, what I'm suggesting is that the people informed enough to make these decisions have far, far more data and information than you or I, and they have concluded that AA is capable of profitably operating at least four daily flights to FRA. Personally, I'm inclined to believe their analysis and conclusions.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:00 pm

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 128):

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 125):
That's exactly my point. Is that extra effort worth it, or is it diminishing returns and holding up capacity that could be deployed elsewhere with better potential returns.

What extra effort? Your point remains unproven. Unless you can show us what the traffic mix is on all AA flights to FRA, you are just speculating.

If every opinion requires data, then I guess you don't have much a leg to stand on either, since I've never seen you post any actual numbers other than LAX info.

Sure, let's bet on CLT-FRA local O&D, over/under 50%. You're most welcomed to bet the over. And I'm more than happy to take your money.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 130):
Under PMUS cost structure and network, it might have lasted more than one summer. Under the combined network with new hubs in Dallas, Miami, Chicago and New York, it is entirely pointless.

IIRC unlike MIA-FRA or JFK-EDI, nothing replaced CLT-LIS. So I don't see how the new hubs swayed the decision.
 
Gemuser
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:02 pm

Quoting nc3rd (Reply 114):
How is AA allowed to operate this flight? I thought they had to give it up with the EU settlement.

No, they had to give up an airport "SLOT" pair at LHR to enable a competitor to start LHR-PHL, they didn't have to give up the route. The slot pair did not have to come from LHR-PHL, god knows where it actually came from but BA/AA have a lot of LHR slots.

Gemuser
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MAH4546
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:09 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 132):
IIRC unlike MIA-FRA or JFK-EDI, nothing replaced CLT-LIS. So I don't see how the new hubs swayed the decision.

The new combined carrier, first of all, has higher costs that make a thin, low-yield route like CLTLIS one of the first to go. Secondly, the new combined carrier has a major presence through ATIs on the Iberian peninsula through Madrid and Barcelona which makes the need for direct access to Lisbon less important.
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jetblue1965
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:11 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 131):

No, what I'm suggesting is that the people informed enough to make these decisions have far, far more data and information than you or I, and they have concluded that AA is capable of profitably operating at least four daily flights to FRA. Personally, I'm inclined to believe their analysis and conclusions.

Did you "incline" on DL's analysis when they launched DTW-HKG ? Or was that the same process and "far far more data" that they used to launch JFK-HND ?

CASE IN POINT - Just earlier in the thread, you were quite skeptical of DL's PHL-LHR. How come you don't think they have data and did their analysis and have the right conclusion ? Or you're claiming DL/VS doesn't know what they're doing - only AA does ?
 
commavia
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:04 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 135):
CASE IN POINT - Just earlier in the thread, you were quite skeptical of DL's PHL-LHR. How come you don't think they have data and did their analysis and have the right conclusion ? Or you're claiming DL/VS doesn't know what they're doing - only AA does ?

Fair - we're all entitled to their opinions, but ultimately have to defer to those far more informed than us, and that goes for both PHL-LHR and AA at FRA.

Nonetheless, I still have absolutely no idea (and still haven't heard) why it's so far fetched for the largest airline in the world to operate four flights per day to FRA, which is one of the largest and most important markets in Europe. AA has proven they can do this - despite facing another challenging competing alliance dominance at CDG, AA has remained a very strong presence in that market, as well. It is just beyond me why this is at all questionable, and I frankly find it far less difficult to imagine AA operating four flights to FRA than Delta operating one in the PHL-LHR market.

Guess we'll just have to wait and see.
 
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tlecam
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:17 pm

I just read that AA/USis starting a daytime PHL-LHR flight.

http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler....aunch-daytime-london-philly-route/
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
by738
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:57 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 137):

I just read that AA/USis starting a daytime PHL-LHR flight

And mentioned already, many posts before yours !
 
Freshside3
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Fri Nov 28, 2014 2:47 am

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 100):
why "should" they?

There is a certain expectation from customers, in high-volume markets, and they will go with the larger, more comfortable planes, given the opportunity. The competition will have an edge, with that in mind. Plus you have the weight restriction figuring into this scenario.
 
anstar
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:42 am

Quoting freshside3 (Reply 139):
There is a certain expectation from customers, in high-volume markets, and they will go with the larger, more comfortable planes, given the opportunity. The competition will have an edge, with that in mind. Plus you have the weight restriction figuring into this scenario.

Don't the Delta 757's that will fly this route have flat beds in J and have just gone through a refit?

Seems comfortable enough.
 
brilondon
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:06 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 43):

A 757 really, What a sad attempt. Do it with a 767 if you have the balls to do this.

Why? The 757 is a capable aircraft to do the route.

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 9):
For example, after the CLT hub is closed,

I did not know that AA was closing the CLT hub, when was that announced?
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757usairways
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:20 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 141):

AA is not closing the CLT hub
 
Prost
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:30 pm

Question about beyond connections at LHR. With AA adding a fourth flight daily, does their yield get diluted by carrying more connections than O&D?
 
AeroWesty
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:03 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 143):
With AA adding a fourth flight daily, does their yield get diluted by carrying more connections than O&D?

I doubt if that's much of a consideration. Corporate contracts on the East Coast->Heathrow routes can carry huge discounts. Someone showing up on a published Coach fare making a connection may even be more lucrative on an individual basis.
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hjulicher
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:47 pm

Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 101):
How long does Delta have to fly PHL-LHR before they can transfer the slot to another US city?

I think that this hits it on the head! How long will DL have to fly this route from the very valuable vested slot from AA/BA and then apply it to another city pair for their DL/VS JV.

I think that AA has traditionally always been weak in FRA. They are only able to continually run DFW-FRA, yet they cannot profitably run NYC-FRA or ORD-FRA, arguably much larger markets. So from this historical analysis, unless US can bring a lot to the equation, it's not hard to think that AA/US will continue to be weak into FRA.

Now US was successful in FRA and MUC, but in larger part due to onward connections with LH. Without the feed, they must rely on their local domestic feed via their hubs to make FRA and MUC work.

I believe that AA will attempt to continue to serve Germany, but even as a combined entity with US, it will have trouble to keep capacity level like during the years when US was in STAR.

Looking at the markets:
NYC - FRA : UA, LH, SQ, DL, new AA
MIA - FRA : LH, new AA (most traffic is originating in Germany, so the HUB has a weak role for AA as it isn't optimal for US domestic connections)
PHL - FRA : LH, AA, status quo, AA already reduced to 1x daily.
CLT - FRA : AA, can CLT support service without feed on the European end? Automotive traffic is flowing via MUC
ORD - FRA : UA, LH
DFW - FRA : AA, LH, limited market

I realize also that PHL-LHR is a strong market, but are 4 (maybe 5) frequencies sustainable on this route given that AA has a myriad of other destinations in Europe? Will we see upguaging into PHL from US, as the HUB itself is in the middle regarding passenger throughput. DL operates 4 frequencies daily on DTW-AMS (summer), which you could argue is smaller than PHL-LHR, but DTW also doesn't have all the other destinations in Europe like PHL. ATL - CDG is 4/5 frequencies and yet thats from ATL which is almost 3 times PHL in terms of passenger throughput.
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MesaFlyGuy
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:19 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 141):
Quoting PEK777 (Reply 9):For example, after the CLT hub is closed,
I did not know that AA was closing the CLT hub, when was that announced?
Quoting brilondon (Reply 141):

AA is not closing the CLT hub

There are certain users on these boards that are a bit stubborn and don't want to accept that they're wrong about the CLT hub. I don't pay them any heed.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
Prost
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:23 pm

How did this become a CLT and FRA discussion?
 
MAH4546
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:24 pm

Quoting hjulicher (Reply 145):

Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 101):
How long does Delta have to fly PHL-LHR before they can transfer the slot to another US city?

I think that this hits it on the head! How long will DL have to fly this route from the very valuable vested slot from AA/BA and then apply it to another city pair for their DL/VS JV.

The route can only be flown from PHL non-stop. After ten years, the slot returns to AA/IAG.

Quoting hjulicher (Reply 145):
Now US was successful in FRA and MUC, but in larger part due to onward connections with LH. Without the feed, they must rely on their local domestic feed via their hubs to make FRA and MUC work.

US flew 3x daily to FRA and 1x daily to MUC before it ever had a partnership with Lufthansa.
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hjulicher
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RE: DL To Start PHL-LHR

Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:39 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 148):

With all due respect, but many airlines used to serve routes in a bygone era, but it does not mean that a route's performance can be compared from then and now.

During the STAR years, US built up PHL into its European International HUB with new services to at most 17 destinations. I don't believe it's feasible for AA to again serve FRA 3x daily while maintaining the infrastructure to so many destinations in Europe.

That said, trimming capacity has occurred and so the routes are now spokes and not trunks anymore. The only victim I could foresee is CLT-FRA, the rest will stay, but I also think that AA will have a difficult time making MIA and JFK profitable. The fact that they don't serve ORD-FRA is understandable given that it's a hub to hub route for UA, but then again it's not like UA doesn't fly ORD-LHR.
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